PDA

View Full Version : The Kyle Lohse dilemma



BuckeyeRedleg
06-11-2007, 06:49 PM
I've read several times on this board about the many mistakes Mr. Wayne Krivsky has made, including the trade and subsequent one-year signing of Kyle Lohse. While I agree that Wayne has seemed to make many mistakes, Kyle Lohse, in my opinion, is not one of them. Since coming over to the Reds last August, he has been a solid contributor to the rotation. Although he has been labeled a solid #4 starter, his numbers would suggest otherwise. In the same time span since joining the Reds, Kyle's numbers are comparable to the Reds #2 man, Bronson Arroyo. Arroyo has struggled big time in 2007 to the point of being the 4th most productive member of the rotation, but he's still put up solid enough numbers in 2006 to be considered one of Wayne's great moves of last year. This post is not meant to cast a negative light on Arroyo, who I think is suffering from a tired arm (due to an incompetent manager), but a positive on Lohse, who will be a free agent next year and at this rate, will probably be looking at somewhere around a 3 year, 24 Million payday. I have been very impressed with Lohse and think he has all the stuff of a solid #3 or #4 guy in the rotation. His issue has always been between the ears, but it seems that whatever issues he had, he has worked through some of them to contribute quite nicely to the current Reds rotation. Anyway, here are the numbers between Lohse and Arroyo since Lohse came over last August.

Note: one of Lohse's games is not included, his 1st as a Red (in relief against the Dodgers). I only have included his starts.


Kyle Lohse....(age: 28.8).......since August 6, 2006 (1st start)

GS---24
W-L---6-12
IP---143 (5.95/GS)
H----160 (10.07/9)
BB---34 (2.14/9)
K---97 (6.11/9)
R---74
ER---69
HR---15 (.94/9)
ERA---4.35
WHIP---1.36

Bronson Arroyo....(age: 30.3)....since August 5, 2006

GS---25
W-L---7-11
IP---162 (6.48/GS)
H----155 (8.61/9IP)
BB---58 (3.22/9IP)
K---112 (6.22/9IP)
R---85
ER---74
HR---16 (.89/9IP)
ERA---4.11
WHIP---1.31


Arroyo has slightly better numbers across the board, however that could be wiped out with one more good outing by Lohse. It is that close. The one glaring difference, is Arroyo has given up 2 more hits in 19 more IP (8.61 vs. 10.07 H/9). This could be luck as Lohse does have a similar K rate (6.11 to 6.22 K/9) and a significantly better Walk rate (2.14 to 3.22 BB/9). Arroyo also gets more IP per start (6.48 to 5.95), but that could be Narron having more confidence in him and the need to stretch him out to compensate for a weak bullpen. Lohse simply may not be given has much leeway by Jerry.

I think the decision with Lohse will one of the more underrated decisions Krivsky makes as the deadline nears. Extend Lohse? This decision could be made easier in either direction based on how Bailey does. If Bailey looks sharp, should Wayne consider keeping him to form a solid 5-man rotation with Harang, Arroyo, Belisle, and Bailey? Maybe Bailey's success convinces Wayne to shop Arroyo and extend Lohse. Either way, it will make for an interesting July in an already lost season.

RedEye
06-11-2007, 08:01 PM
Good points. I mostly agree with you. I just hope that Wayne has the good sense to cash Lohse in for some prospects before he leaves via free agency. Arroyo's extension is looking worse and worse with every passing day (again, not completely his fault), and we don't need to add another mediocre pitcher to our list of big contracts.

pedro
06-11-2007, 09:14 PM
In a world where Adam Eaton gets a 24 million dollar contract anythings possible.

Now's as good a time to trade him as ever IMO.

GAC
06-11-2007, 09:24 PM
When I look at what went done this past off-season with the pitching market, and what teams were handing out to marignal pitchers - I'm still amazed at what Seattle gave Jeff Weaver - I have no problem whatsoever with the Reds offering a 1 yr deal to Lohse for 4.2 mil.

And he took a couple losses in early May when he shouldn't have even been on the mound due to a intestinal illness. Yet he sucked it up and went out there, even when one could see he wasn't 100%. Plus he had the great luck of facing Oswalt twice in one week inwhich he pitched pretty good, yet still took the loss because Oswalt owns us.

But I don't see how anyne can bemoan Lohse and at the same time ignore what a lousy job Arroyo has done for us.

Sea Ray
06-11-2007, 09:36 PM
Funny how quickly the tide turns here on RZ. A few weeks ago the letters DFA were mentioned in conjunction with Kyle Lohse. I think he's done a fine job in our rotation. In addition to the games already mentioned, his game at Dodger Stadium looked horrible in the box score but in reality it was a "snake bit" game. Numerous duck snorts, broken bat hits and overall bad luck doomed that start. So bad I was thinking that sort of game might have a mental hangover of sorts.

I would have to think that other teams have noticed the same thing and in Lohse they see a solid starter who (and this is big) can go 9 innings. There are not a lot of guys who can go 9 innings anymore. He should net us some nice prospects. If not then I'd keep him and talk extension. At worst let him walk and we'll take the draft compensation.

Eric_Davis
06-11-2007, 09:57 PM
Funny how quickly the tide turns here on RZ. A few weeks ago the letters DFA were mentioned in conjunction with Kyle Lohse. I think he's done a fine job in our rotation. In addition to the games already mentioned, his game at Dodger Stadium looked horrible in the box score but in reality it was a "snake bit" game. Numerous duck snorts, broken bat hits and overall bad luck doomed that start. So bad I was thinking that sort of game might have a mental hangover of sorts.

I would have to think that other teams have noticed the same thing and in Lohse they see a solid starter who (and this is big) can go 9 innings. There are not a lot of guys who can go 9 innings anymore. He should net us some nice prospects. If not then I'd keep him and talk extension. At worst let him walk and we'll take the draft compensation.

That will happen when your ERA is 9.00 for the month of May.

Don't expect much from Bailey this year or next. I'd be very surprised if he pitches better than Lohse in 2007 or 2008.

There's also the Adam Dunn and Junior factor. Those two could net a #3 pitcher or a potential #2 pitcher if they are traded for a Low-A or High-A pitcher, but then that pitcher won't be a Major Leaguer until long after Lohse is gone.

BuckeyeRedleg
06-11-2007, 11:28 PM
Funny how quickly the tide turns here on RZ. A few weeks ago the letters DFA were mentioned in conjunction with Kyle Lohse.

No tide turning here. This hasn't been the first time that I have pointed out the success of the Lohse trade and re-signing.

And I'm probably the least likely person to be joining the Wayne Krivsky fan club anytime soon, so you know I must be impressed with what we have gotten from Lohse to mention it.

coachw513
06-12-2007, 12:18 AM
I've asked elsewhere but didn't see a response...isn't Lohse a Boras-client???...if so, I can't see him taking an extension before the trade deadline...and if I'm the Reds I can't risk letting him get out on the open market this off-season and trying to out-bid someone...

At the right price, I personally would love him to stay here...I think he will continue to mature and gain some greater consistency, but heck I'd take exactly what he's given us in the past 12 months for 3 years as a #4 starter...

Our greatest strength as a club is our starting pitching (dear God, I cannot believe I have written those words)...maintaining it while making other improvements is vital...not that Lohse must be kept, but finding similar production either from the system or a traded player is very important...for the first time that I can remember, we have no significant hole in our rotation 1-5 with the callup of Bailey...it ain't Spahn and Sain, but it also isn't "pray for rain"...

Aronchis
06-12-2007, 12:26 AM
This thread will be gone in a couple of weeks. Lohse is Lohse. He shouldn't be extended, he shouldn't be a Red by Augest.

When he gets rocked again for a few starts, remember, that is Lohse's pattern.

RedsMan3203
06-12-2007, 12:31 AM
Some pitchers just 'get' it... Comes out of no where... And it just clicks for them....

Hopefully, that has happend to Kyle.... I remember a few years back...

Harang went to the DL... Comes back from it and has been the best starter we've had over that time... It was like the trip to the DL to clear his head... rest his arm... and learn... and he came back and it was clear that he was a different pitcher...

Both Harang and Lohse are pretty much the same age... I say give him a few more months to see where he is at... I'd still LOVE to see him back in the Reds gear next year... But I know alot of the members here want him out ASAP.

BuckeyeRedleg
06-12-2007, 12:35 AM
This thread will be gone in a couple of weeks. Lohse is Lohse. He shouldn't be extended, he shouldn't be a Red by Augest.

When he gets rocked again for a few starts, remember, that is Lohse's pattern.

And then he'll throw a shutout.

Over 24 starts, the positives have outweighed the negatives.

RedsMan3203
06-12-2007, 12:43 AM
Lohse could easily be 7-3 this year... not 3-7... A few things go our way... our pen gets out of the inning... You can flip that record....

SIGN HIM NOW! 3yr/20 million.

5 million for 08', 7 million for 09', 8 million for 10' - Option for '11 for 12 sounds good to me :) :)

Heath
06-12-2007, 12:53 AM
Lohse could easily be 7-3 this year... not 3-7... A few things go our way... our pen gets out of the inning... You can flip that record....

SIGN HIM NOW! 3yr/20 million.

5 million for 08', 7 million for 09', 8 million for 10' - Option for '11 for 12 sounds good to me :) :)

Somebody will sign him to that. But I hope it is not Cincinnati. I don't think Kyle Lohse has the concentration to be a stud. He does have the tools and the talent, but he lacks concentration.

KronoRed
06-12-2007, 02:47 AM
Past history tells me it would be foolish to give him a long term deal, trade him and let someone else take the risk

mth123
06-12-2007, 06:39 AM
This thread will be gone in a couple of weeks. Lohse is Lohse. He shouldn't be extended, he shouldn't be a Red by Augest.

When he gets rocked again for a few starts, remember, that is Lohse's pattern.

I agree with this completely. Trade him while he's going well. I want the Reds to have no part of his next contract.

Red Heeler
06-12-2007, 09:30 AM
Over the course of the last several years, the Reds have had the opportunity to cash in on good seasons by iffy pitchers (Haynes, Jimmy; Wilson, Paul). We all know how that turned out. The situation now is different, though. Haynes and Wilson at least appeared to be the best starters on horrible Reds staffs. The current Reds have a capable rotation locked up for the next 3 years without Lohse.

Harang, Arroyo, Bailey, and Belisle can produce winning baseball if the offense and bullpen are potent. With starting pitching at such a premium, it would cost the Reds dearly in talent, money, or both to significantly improve the rotation. They would be best served to use the money and trading chips at hand to aquire bats and BP arms who can spend the remainder of '07 as their ML apprenticeship. 2008 would be a year of improving baseball with 2009 being the year that they should mature into a legitimate team.

15fan
06-12-2007, 09:40 AM
Buy low, sell high.

Sea Ray
06-12-2007, 09:44 AM
Harang, Arroyo, Bailey, and Belisle can produce winning baseball if the offense and bullpen are potent.

A small market team has to look at the dollars and sense. In Harang and Arroyo the Reds have a lot of dollars tied up in the next few years. They can't afford a 3 yr $20mill tied up in another starting pitcher. It's too risky. Starting pitchers are too fragile. If you're the Yankees or the red Sox great, but not a $70mill payroll team. The Reds have to count on youngsters like Cueto, Livingston, Fisher or even Gosling to fill in the 4th and 5th slots in this rotation. They cannot afford Lohse at this point in his career. Trade him.

membengal
06-12-2007, 11:10 AM
I remain firmly in the deal-him-as-soon-as-you-get-anything-approaching-value camp.

Parlay a string of hot starts into a deal. Do it without a second thought.

Benihana
06-12-2007, 11:58 AM
In a world where Adam Eaton gets a 24 million dollar contract anythings possible.

Now's as good a time to trade him as ever IMO.

Agreed. If Adam Eaton can net Adrian Gonzalez and Chris Young in a trade, let's get something for Lohse!!

BuckeyeRedleg
04-10-2012, 10:54 PM
I was always in the Lohse camp. Funny in this thread (started nearly 5 years ago) I mention a dilemma with re-signing him and Homer Bailey is one of the factors. I still think Bailey will be okay, but think Lohse was very underrated by the Reds fanbase and this board.

MikeThierry
04-10-2012, 10:58 PM
lol Buckeye, congrats for digging this out of the archives. Probably took a lot of searching on your part.

BuckeyeRedleg
04-10-2012, 10:59 PM
lol Buckeye, congrats for digging this out of the archives. Probably took a lot of searching on your part.

Not really. Advanced search. "Lohse" and "BuckeyeRedleg" was enough.

Redhook
04-10-2012, 11:15 PM
Lohse shows you how powerful a great coach/instructor, Duncan, can be for an athlete. Lohse always had the "stuff", but Duncan showed him how to put it all together.

On a different note, I don't fault the Reds at all for letting Lohse go. He was a mess with them.

MikeThierry
04-10-2012, 11:21 PM
Lohse is also in a contract year. The last time he was in a contract year he pitched very well. I wouldn't be surprised if he had a better season than his 2008 season.

hebroncougar
04-10-2012, 11:21 PM
So, were you still in the Lohse camp in 2009, and 2010 when he was stinking the joint up as well?

Sent from my Desire HD using Tapatalk 2

BuckeyeRedleg
04-10-2012, 11:26 PM
So, were you still in the Lohse camp in 2009, and 2010 when he was stinking the joint up as well?

Sent from my Desire HD using Tapatalk 2

He's been good more years than years he's stunk up the joint.

Sent from my laptop.

Tom Servo
04-10-2012, 11:27 PM
I don't think Lohse was ever gonna put it together with the Reds.

BuckeyeRedleg
04-10-2012, 11:33 PM
I don't think Lohse was ever gonna put it together with the Reds.

And yet in 33 starts with the Reds he was pretty solid.

Dom Heffner
04-10-2012, 11:53 PM
Kyle Lohse is league average. That's it.

There's a correction coming his way, and it's goimg to be ugly. A.260ish BAPIP isn't sustainable. It just isn't.

fearofpopvol1
04-11-2012, 12:02 AM
Kyle Lohse is league average. That's it.

There's a correction coming his way, and it's goimg to be ugly. A.260ish BAPIP isn't sustainable. It just isn't.

WAR disagrees with your assessment.

MikeS21
04-11-2012, 12:05 AM
I don't think Lohse was ever gonna put it together with the Reds.
Why is it that it seems that this statement could be made about a LOT of Reds pitchers?

*BaseClogger*
04-11-2012, 05:39 AM
Sent from my laptop.

:laugh:

Dom Heffner
04-11-2012, 09:11 AM
WAR disagrees with your assessment.

Maybe. I'm not a Lohse fan, so perhaps I'm hard on the guy. I don't see a long track record of anything other than league average work.

He's one of those pitchers that goes on a magical mystery tour of everything being hit at somebody, and that normally ends.

I dunno- Michael Young and Matt Cain outperform logic every year, maybe Lohse does too. I think you're seeing Lohse at about as good as he gets, which still isn't dominating or very impressive.

PuffyPig
04-11-2012, 09:29 AM
WAR disagrees with your assessment.

In his 4 years with the Cards Lohse averages a WAR of 1.77.

Over his last 2 years, Bailey has averaged 1.7.

Lohse good years are generally the result of good health and better luck than anything else.

Dom Heffner
04-11-2012, 09:29 AM
And his WAR has been negative two of the past three years.

Here are some similar pitchers:

Brett Tomko
Jeff Weaver
Joel Pineiro
Ismael Valdez
Jason Marquis
Mark Gardner
Carl Pavano
Andy Ashby
Bronson Arroyo
Jarrod Washburn

League. Average.

And I'm guessing his .5 WHIP may go up a bit.....

lollipopcurve
04-11-2012, 09:53 AM
There were many, many threads in which Lohse was disparaged -- he was without doubt a Redszone whipping boy, with detractors outnumbering supporters by a wide margin. On balance, he's a much better pitcher than he's been given credit for here. I ask again, where is Zach Ward, the guy the Reds traded for Lohse, today?

Chip R
04-11-2012, 10:10 AM
Let's not give Lohse the Cy Young Award just yet. Bad Kyle's going to show up several more times before the season's over.

Dom Heffner
04-11-2012, 10:13 AM
Let's not give Lohse the Cy Young Award just yet. Bad Kyle's going to show up several more times before the season's over.

Whew. I'm not alone.

wolfboy
04-11-2012, 10:13 AM
Why is it that it seems that this statement could be made about a LOT of Reds pitchers?

Maybe many of the favorite whipping boy pitchers of redszone are not as bad as some people make them out to be.

OesterPoster
04-11-2012, 10:26 AM
There were many, many threads in which Lohse was disparaged -- he was without doubt a Redszone whipping boy, with detractors outnumbering supporters by a wide margin. On balance, he's a much better pitcher than he's been given credit for here. I ask again, where is Zach Ward, the guy the Reds traded for Lohse, today?

Not that it really matters, but the Reds got Matt Maloney for Lohse.

Dom Heffner
04-11-2012, 10:26 AM
Maybe many of the favorite whipping boy pitchers of redszone are not as bad as some people make them out to be.

For me it's not a matter of being terrible.

He's just not as good as he's pitched thus far this year, which is why the thread was brought up.

If this were a message board about cereal, the Klyle Lohse equivalent would be Shredded Wheat. Eh, you know?

wolfboy
04-11-2012, 10:42 AM
For me it's not a matter of being terrible.

He's just not as good as he's pitched thus far this year, which is why the thread was brought up.

If this were a message board about cereal, the Klyle Lohse equivalent would be Shredded Wheat. Eh, you know?

I think you have him pegged: He's a league average pitcher. For whatever reason, when a guy doesn't suddenly blossom into Halladay overnight, he's dismissed as chaff on this board (by many). I've never understood why this fanbase has such little appreciation for league average pitching. Maybe it's universal?

BuckeyeRedleg
04-11-2012, 11:24 AM
Since 2006 (the year the Reds acquired Lohse and Arroyo):

Lohse (917.1 IP)

2006: 1.5 WAR
2007: 2.5 WAR
2008: 3.1 WAR
2009: 0.8 WAR
2010: 0.7 WAR
2011: 2.5 WAR

Total: 11.1 WAR (average: 1.85 WAR)

Arroyo (1286.1 IP)

2006: 4.2 WAR
2007: 2.7 WAR
2008: 2.3 WAR
2009: 1.6 WAR
2010: 1.7 WAR
2011: -1.3 WAR

Total: 11.2 WAR (average: 1.87 WAR)


Also, since 2006 (minimum 900 IP…..59 SP’s qualify):

Arroyo #47 of 59 in WAR
Lohse #48 of 59 in WAR

Lohse #35 of 59 in FIP (4.18)
Arroyo #57 of 59 in FIP (4.70)

Arroyo #7 of 59 in BABIP (.278)
Lohse #44 of 59 in BABIP (.303)



Both have been nearly equal in this amount of time, with the exception that Arroyo has thrown nearly 370 more IP (60+ IP a year). Now we can look at that in one of two ways.

1. That even with that many more IP, they are nearly identical in WAR, which would make Lohse the more valuable pitcher on a per start basis.

2. If you think Arroyo is more valuable because of more IP, I’d argue that in Lohse’s “bad” years, he did less harm to his team by pitching less. From 2009 to 2011 Arroyo has arguably been the worst starter in baseball (minimum 450 IP) with a 2.0 WAR (#74 of 74…..last among SP’s with 450+ IP), and a 5.01 FIP (#74 of 74…..last among qualified SP’s) in his 635 IP. All of this and both Lohse and Arroyo have made nearly the identical amount of money from 2006 on.

Going forward, I know which pitcher I’d rather have anchoring the back of my rotation. And if the money were the same, I’d take Lohse over Bailey as well. Speaking of, since 2007 (Bailey’s first year) there are 156 pitchers with at least 400 IP (Bailey with 441.2 prior to ’12). Of those 156, Lohse ranks #67 in WAR (9.5), Arroyo ranks #97 (7.0), and Bailey ranks #125 (4.8). Granted, Bailey’s thrown less innings so it would make sense he’s a bit lower in WAR, but when we go to FIP, Bailey ranks #97 (4.35), Arroyo #142 (4.83…ouch!) and then there’s Lohse leading the group again at 4.18 (#68 of 156).

BuckeyeRedleg
04-11-2012, 11:32 AM
Not that it really matters, but the Reds got Matt Maloney for Lohse.

Ward was traded to the Twins for Lohse.

I actually think Maloney does matter, because that's all the Reds got for "selling high" on Lohse.

wolfboy
04-11-2012, 11:34 AM
I’d take Lohse over Bailey as well. Speaking of, since 2007 (Bailey’s first year) there are 156 pitchers with at least 400 IP (Bailey with 441.2 prior to ’12). Of those 156, Lohse ranks #67 in WAR (9.5), Arroyo ranks #97 (7.0), and Bailey ranks #125 (4.8). Granted, Bailey’s thrown less innings so it would make sense he’s a bit lower in WAR, but when we go to FIP, Bailey ranks #97 (4.35), Arroyo #142 (4.83…ouch!) and then there’s Lohse leading the group again at 4.18 (#68 of 156).

Overall, I think this was a fantastic post, but I really take exception with this part. In the '07 and '08 seasons, Bailey accumulated a grand total of 81.2 innings. That's an average of 40 innings per season during that span.

It wouldn't make sense that he'd be a bit lower in WAR, it would make sense that he would be a ton lower. Granted, Bailey as awful during those two seasons, but no pitcher is going to accumulate an appreciable WAR over 80 innings. Not to mention, when you compare him to other starting pitchers during that same span (who were presumably pitching more than 40 innings a season), it completely skews the results. Compare Bailey in WAR from '09-'11 (years in which he had a min. of 100 IP) and the comparison looks a lot different.

MikeThierry
04-11-2012, 11:35 AM
Maybe. I'm not a Lohse fan, so perhaps I'm hard on the guy. I don't see a long track record of anything other than league average work.

He's one of those pitchers that goes on a magical mystery tour of everything being hit at somebody, and that normally ends.

I dunno- Michael Young and Matt Cain outperform logic every year, maybe Lohse does too. I think you're seeing Lohse at about as good as he gets, which still isn't dominating or very impressive.

Nobody has said that you want Lohse as a #1 or #2 starter on the team. However, as a 4th or 5th pitcher which the Cards use him as, he is very good. There aren't a lot of 4th place pitchers that lead their team in Wins and ERA last season.

I know a lot of you, if a pitcher doesn't strike out 20000 batters per game, he isn't worth anything however I'll take league average for a 4th starter. A good chunk of 4th starters worse than league average.

wolfboy
04-11-2012, 11:36 AM
I know a lot of you, if a pitcher doesn't strike out 20000 batters per game, he isn't worth anything however I'll take league average for a 4th starter.

Pfffft! 20,000? You Cards fans have such low standards.

MikeThierry
04-11-2012, 11:37 AM
Pfffft! 20,000? You Cards fans have such low standards.

:lol::laugh:

MikeThierry
04-11-2012, 11:41 AM
I also love it when a pitcher uses a pitch specifically to induce a ground ball, it's chalked up to being luck. It isn't chalked up to effective pitching. This is one area I cannot get on board with proponents of FIP and other pitching metrics. There are multiple effective ways to skin a cat. Striking out a ton of hitters doesn't necissarly add up to effective pitching nor does getting 27 ground balls add up to effective pitching. If pitcher leans heavily on one way to get batters out, it doesn't mean he is a bad pitcher. Maybe it's because I have seen the Dave Duncan pitching philosophy first hand to where it forms my opinion on this issue. During his tenure here, the Cards averaged the 3rd best ERA in baseball and were never in the bottom half in the league in pitching. He was never concerned with striking out a ton of batters but rather being efficient while pitching. If that meant getting a ground ball, try to induce a ground ball. It worked all of those years and if it worked in practice, who's to say that philosophy doesn't work or is "lucky".

redhawkfish
04-11-2012, 11:50 AM
I also love it when a pitcher uses a pitch specifically to induce a ground ball, it's chalked up to being luck. It isn't chalked up to effective pitching. This is one area I cannot get on board with proponents of FIP and other pitching metrics. There are multiple effective ways to skin a cat. Striking out a ton of hitters doesn't necissarly add up to effective pitching nor does getting 27 ground balls add up to effective pitching. If pitcher leans heavily on one way to get batters out, it doesn't mean he is a bad pitcher.

Had a friend ask me this question this weekend on a fishing trip

"Why are strikeouts and missing bats so valuable for a pitcher, but strikeouts are considered just another out for hitters."

HokieRed
04-11-2012, 12:02 PM
I liked Lohse when we had him, thought he was one of Krivsky's best pickups, and I'd like to have him still. He'd be a valuable member of our rotation at present. He's been at around 180 innings or more 7 times, Arroyo's done that 8. Bailey, whom I have always liked, has not come anywhere close to those numbers even once, and it remains to be seen if he will. Lohse has had a career in a way that Bailey simply has not. Finding league average guys who can put up innings year after year is what GMing is all about.

wolfboy
04-11-2012, 12:18 PM
Had a friend ask me this question this weekend on a fishing trip

"Why are strikeouts and missing bats so valuable for a pitcher, but strikeouts are considered just another out for hitters."

I'm sure others can elaborate on the subject more, and add a much more technical analysis, but one reason I see is that a pitcher's strikeout is a maximized result, similar to a batter's home run.

When a pitcher strikes out a batter, he doesn't need to rely on his defense or anyone else to get an out (except for maybe his catcher). If his third baseman has bad range and lets too many balls through the infield, it doesn't matter. If Adam Dunn is manning left field, it doesn't matter. It's the best result a pitcher can get.

Likewise, when a batter hits one over the fence, he doesn't have to rely on subsequent batters to score a run. It doesn't matter if Joey Votto or Juan Castro is the next batter up, he's already scored.

I understand where you're coming from on the strikeout versus other outs comparison, but I think confusion arises from the way the question is asked. One one hand, there's the question your friend asked: is a batter's strikeout worse than any other out? No. An out is an out is an out, whether you strike the batter out, or Adam Dunn actually gets to the ball in time. The batter is out, end of story.

On the other hand, there's a different question, which is what I believe you are getting at: is making some contact better than making no contact? This is where people say that some contact has to be better because it could result in an error, or a ball that slips past a bad defender at third base. Essentially, more results are possible with contact, both positive and negative. In the end, I think this is what you and your buddy are getting at.

redhawkfish
04-11-2012, 12:30 PM
Wow wolfboy! Thanks for the response. I tried to explain it like you did, and failed miserably. It shows how poor the fishing was that we talked more baseball than fishing!:laugh:

PuffyPig
04-11-2012, 01:29 PM
Nobody has said that you want Lohse as a #1 or #2 starter on the team. However, as a 4th or 5th pitcher which the Cards use him as, he is very good. There aren't a lot of 4th place pitchers that lead their team in Wins and ERA last season.

I know a lot of you, if a pitcher doesn't strike out 20000 batters per game, he isn't worth anything however I'll take league average for a 4th starter. A good chunk of 4th starters worse than league average.


The Cards have spent $42M over 4 years to get one year of league average, two horrible years, and one unknown year.

BTW, how does one use a 4th place pitcher? I assume you mean that they run him out there every 5th game. Isn't that the same as the # 1 and #2 starters?

PuffyPig
04-11-2012, 01:43 PM
Finding league average guys who can put up innings year after year is what GMing is all about.

And paying them $42M to do that is how GM's find themselves sitting with the fans.

Finding minimum salary guys who can put up average stats is what real GM'ing is all about.

And when did Lohse suddenly become someone any team can depend upon for anything? He's OK half the time. Even last year during one of his better years, he became a liabilty in the playoffs.

MikeThierry
04-11-2012, 01:54 PM
The Cards have spent $42M over 4 years to get one year of league average, two horrible years, and one unknown year.

BTW, how does one use a 4th place pitcher? I assume you mean that they run him out there every 5th game. Isn't that the same as the # 1 and #2 starters?

Nobody could have seen Kyle Lohse having an injury that has never happened to anyone in the history of MLB for two years. He was worth the money if he gave the Cardinals the same production he gave them in the 2008 season. He certainly was worth the 10-12 million they spent on him last season with 14 wins and a 3.39 ERA. If you are going to criticize the Cards for not being able to see a goofy injury, don't you also have to criticize the Reds for wasting a ton of money on a closer that they will probably never see pitch for them? To me, it's Monday morning QBing blaming an organization for not being able to forcast an injury that would sideline a player for two years.

MikeThierry
04-11-2012, 01:59 PM
And when did Lohse suddenly become someone any team can depend upon for anything? He's OK half the time. Even last year during one of his better years, he became a liabilty in the playoffs.

I think this is a bit unfair on your part. Yes, he didn't pitch well in the playoffs but I think a large part of that had to do with essentially being gassed. He only pitched 92 innings in 2010 and his innings load doubled last year. Certainly his arm strength wasn't there towards the end of the year. If the Cards make the playoffs this year, I think he will be a more effective pitcher in the playoffs because his arm strength is back.

RedsManRick
04-11-2012, 02:10 PM
Had a friend ask me this question this weekend on a fishing trip

"Why are strikeouts and missing bats so valuable for a pitcher, but strikeouts are considered just another out for hitters."

This sort of misstates things. Strikeouts are bad for hitters. Full stop. We should never (rarely) be happy when a guy strikes out. The difference comes when we try to evaluate a guy's overall production.

A hitter with a high strikeout rate can make up for it (and then some) by excelling at hitting the ball hard (HRs and LDs) and by taking walks. And high strikeout hitters often hit for WAY more power than other hitters and walk way more often.

Similarly, a pitcher can offset a low strikeout rate by keeping his walks and hard hit balls down. The difference is in how much he can do that. In particular, the pitcher has much less influence over how hard balls are hit against him (or put differently, there's less variation between pitchers in their ability to prevent hard hit balls*).

So a relatively high strikeout rate for a hitter doesn't necessarily prevent him from being a very good hitter. But for pitchers, a low strikeout rate makes it very difficult for him to be very good.

*Consider, hitters get selected based on both their ability to hit and their ability to field. So you end up with a fair number of guys in major league lineups who are mediocre hitters (easily surpassed as hitters by guys who toil in AAA, but who play worse defense). The spread of hitting talent, particularly as it relates to power, is pretty wide. But pitchers just pitch.

To put it more simply, the 350 pitchers on major league rosters are essentially the 350 best pitchers there are. But the 400 hitters on major league rosters are not the best 400 hitters there are. They're the best overall position players, defense included. So when you look at their hitting skills, there's more variance because you aren't just taking the cream of the hitting crop.

PuffyPig
04-11-2012, 02:10 PM
I think this is a bit unfair on your part. Yes, he didn't pitch well in the playoffs but I think a large part of that had to do with essentially being gassed. He only pitched 92 innings in 2010 and his innings load doubled last year. Certainly his arm strength wasn't there towards the end of the year. If the Cards make the playoffs this year, I think he will be a more effective pitcher in the playoffs because his arm strength is back.


You're completely missing the point.

Lohse is a league average starter his whole life, even when healthy. His best seasons have predominately come when he's had some better luck. His regression was bound to happen. Giving someone $42M based on a season punctuated on luck is bad baseball.

Expecting him to duplicate his 2008 season was the mistake, whether healthy or not.

The Reds have likely made the same mistake with Arroyo.

MikeThierry
04-11-2012, 02:19 PM
You're completely missing the point.

Lohse is a league average starter his whole life, even when healthy. His best seasons have predominately come when he's had some better luck. His regression was bound to happen. Giving someone $42M based on a season punctuated on luck is bad baseball.

Expecting him to duplicate his 2008 season was the mistake, whether healthy or not.

The Reds have likely made the same mistake with Arroyo.

I love it when people say you're missing the point when they simply don't agree with you. No I'm not missing the damn point. Stop being so condecending.

It's no suprising that he has had his best years in St. Louis where they have coaches that have traditionally gotten the best out of pitchers. You underestimate Dave Duncan's ability to get a pitcher to pitch to his strengths. It's why Duncan might be the first coach to go into the HOF and why he is regarded as the best pitching coach in the history of the game. To completely overlook that factor as to why Lohse may have had success is missing the mark in my opinion.

fearofpopvol1
04-11-2012, 02:51 PM
In his 4 years with the Cards Lohse averages a WAR of 1.77.

Over his last 2 years, Bailey has averaged 1.7.

Lohse good years are generally the result of good health and better luck than anything else.

This post is misleading as Lohse was injured for half of 2010 and almost half of 2009. When he's been healthy and pitched a full season (2008 and 2011), he hit 3.1 WAR and 2.5 WAR. Sorry, but that is not league average. That's better than league average.

HokieRed
04-11-2012, 02:52 PM
And paying them $42M to do that is how GM's find themselves sitting with the fans.

Finding minimum salary guys who can put up average stats is what real GM'ing is all about.

And when did Lohse suddenly become someone any team can depend upon for anything? He's OK half the time. Even last year during one of his better years, he became a liabilty in the playoffs.

I made no comment about his salary.

MikeThierry
04-11-2012, 03:01 PM
This post is misleading as Lohse was injured for half of 2010 and almost half of 2009. When he's been healthy and pitched a full season (2008 and 2011), he hit 3.1 WAR and 2.5 WAR. Sorry, but that is not league average. That's better than league average.

This

BuckeyeRedleg
04-11-2012, 03:35 PM
If I had all three and needed to pick two for #4 and #5 in my rotation, this is how I'd rank them and I wouldn't really even think twice about it.

1. Lohse
2. Bailey
3. Arroyo

HokieRed
04-11-2012, 05:21 PM
If I had all three and needed to pick two for #4 and #5 in my rotation, this is how I'd rank them and I wouldn't really even think twice about it.

1. Lohse
2. Bailey
3. Arroyo

I'd have to think harder about Arroyo v Bailey for the 5 than I would Lohse for the 4. That would be easy. That said, I still hope Bailey will prove otherwise, as I think he's perfectly capable of doing. But it's getting to be time.

Dom Heffner
04-11-2012, 07:03 PM
His closest comp is Brett Tomko.

Dave Duncan is a genius, even when he's not there.

Vottomatic
04-11-2012, 08:01 PM
Lohse was supposed to the second coming of alot of HOF pitchers a long time ago. A couple of good seasons in a Cardinals uniform doesn't make his career great. So maybe he's put it altogether now, but it took him a LONG TIME TO DO IT. "He's got great stuff" has been said about alot of pitchers including Homer Bailey. Maybe Bailey will put it together in his 30's like Lohse.

I'm not impressed. Dude made alot of money underachieving for a long, long time.