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texasdave
06-13-2007, 03:58 PM
This is one way of looking at the role of the starting pitcher: Did he give his team a better than average chance of winning the game? In an attempt to answer this question every 2007 start by a NL-Central starting pitcher was broken down into one of the following four categories:
1)Quality Start (QS) - this is defined as having pitched 6 or more innings and given up 3 or less ER.
2)Bad Start (BS) - this is defined as having pitched less than 6 innings and given up more than 3 ER.
3)Quality Innings Pitched Start (QIP) - this is defined as having pitched 6 or more inning and given up 4 or more ER.
4)Quality Runs Start (QR) - this is defined as having pitched less than 6 innings and given up 3 or less ER.

ALL 381 games started by NL-Central starters were logged into one of these four categories, as well as being noted whether that start was won or lost.
The results were:


QS - 183/116 63.4%
BS - 84/15 17.9%
QIP - 61/11 18.0%
QR - 53/27 50.9%


Next a list was compiled of every pitcher who started a game in 2007 for a NL-Central team:



Pitcher STARTS QS BS QIP QR WS% AGW%
Sampson 11 8 1 0 2 90.9% 57.0
Sheets 13 10 1 1 1 84.6% 55.4
Gorzela 13 9 0 2 2 84.6% 54.5
Snell 13 10 2 1 0 76.9% 52.9
Marquis 13 7 2 1 3 76.9% 50.0
Hill 13 9 1 3 0 69.2% 49.4
Looper 13 9 3 1 0 69.2% 49.4
Oswalt 15 10 1 4 0 66.7% 48.3
Vargas 11 5 3 0 3 72.7% 47.6
Arroyo 14 8 3 2 1 64.3% 46.3
Lohse 13 8 3 2 0 61.5% 45.9
Lilly 13 8 4 1 0 61.5% 45.9
WandyR 12 5 3 1 3 66.7% 45.1
Harang 14 8 4 2 0 57.1% 43.9
Wainwri 12 6 3 2 1 58.3% 43.4
Duke 14 6 4 2 2 57.1% 42.1
WoodyW 14 6 3 3 2 57.1% 42.1
Capuano 13 4 4 1 4 61.5% 42.1
Suppan 14 6 1 6 1 50.0% 39.8
Zambran 14 6 3 4 1 50.0% 39.8
Belisle 13 6 4 3 0 46.2% 38.9
Bush 13 4 3 4 2 46.2% 37.0
Wells 13 4 4 4 1 38.5% 34.5
Maholm 13 2 3 5 3 38.5% 32.6
Pitcher STARTS QS BS QIP QR WS% AGW%
Marshall4 4 0 0 0 100.0% 63.4
Jennings5 3 0 1 1 80.0% 51.8
Bailey 1 0 0 0 1 100.0% 50.9
Keisler 3 1 1 0 1 66.7% 44.1
Milton 6 1 2 0 3 66.7% 42.0
Livingsto2 1 1 0 0 50.0% 40.7
Thompso 7 2 2 1 2 57.1% 40.3
Guzman 3 0 1 0 2 66.7% 39.9
Wellemey3 0 1 0 2 66.7% 39.9
Reyes 9 2 2 2 3 55.6% 39.0
Armas 7 1 3 0 3 57.1% 38.5
Chacon 4 1 2 0 1 50.0% 37.5
Albers 7 3 3 1 0 42.9% 37.4
Saarloos2 0 1 0 1 50.0% 34.4
Miller 3 0 2 0 1 33.3% 28.9
Carpente1 0 0 1 0 0.0% 18.0


The last two columns are Winnable Starts Percent (WS%) and Average Game Winnable Percent (AGW%).

WS% is simply the number of QS plus QR starts divided by the total number of starts. IOW the number of starts a pitcher has thrown that results in his team having a greater than 50% chance of winning. (IE Sampson has 11 starts and 10 of them were either QS or QR.) *It should be noted that QS and QR starts have a requirement of 3 or less ER. So you can think of WS% as the percentage of starts in which a starting pitcher has given up 3 or less ER.

AGW% is the percent chance of victory per each game that particular starter threw. The reason that the majority of pitchers are under 50% is due to the fact that the NL-Central, as a whole, has a losing record.

Here are the team numbers:


TEAM QS BS QIP QR WS% AGW%
HOU 35 11 10 8 67% 46.9
CHC 34 13 9 7 65% 46.1
CIN 32 18 9 6 58% 43.4
MIL 29 12 12 11 63% 44.2
PIT 29 14 10 11 63% 44.2
STL 24 16 11 10 56% 41.2
But

This is just one way of looking at the performance of starting pitchers. It is more results-oriented, and not necessarily skill-oriented. But I still place some faith in archaic concepts such as pitching around errors, pitching out of jams and all that old school nonsense. I think a pitcher can, to some extent, have numbers that might not be that well-received DIPS/FIPS-wise and still be effective.