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View Full Version : The Dunn market...and the Krivsky market...



Matt700wlw
06-15-2007, 08:51 PM
By Joe Sheehan, BaseballProspectus.com

In what is shaping up as a light midseason trade market, the big prize is Reds left-fielder Adam Dunn. Dunn has been a lightning rod for criticism in Cincinnati, where his take 'n rake approach and Three True Outcomes output are seen as a drag on the team's offense rather than a boost to it. Criticism of his defense and conditioning -- justified to some extent -- feels like piling-on. With the Reds unlikely to win anything in the next two seasons, trading Dunn is one step along the path to winning with Homer Bailey, Jay Bruce and Drew Stubbs in 2009.

Of course, we were here just a year ago, with disastrous results. Wayne Krivsky blew up what was a fringe wild-card contender by overpaying badly for relievers Bill Bray and Gary Majewski. Sending away Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez killed the team's strength, its offense, while providing absolutely no gains anywhere else. To his discredit, Krivsky is again largely focused on adding a reliever, in particularly a closer, in a Dunn deal. For a team that may not win 120 games between now and Opening Day 2009, it's a ridiculous approach. A closer, even a very good one, isn't going to make a difference to this team, and it's a role that can be filled relatively easily when the Reds are ready to contend. Krivsky needs to stop worrying about filling a low-value roster role and focus on getting the most talent, at any position, that he can get.

Dunn's OBP and power would help just about any team, even with his defensive deficiencies. Note that although he's signed through 2008, a trade voids next year and turns him into a free agent at the end of the season, making him a rent-a-player. That significantly affects his trade value. Looking around the league, I found about 12 teams who have need, who are in position to make a midseason deal and who could put together a reasonable package. Of those, three seem like excellent fits, while a couple of others make some sense.

Baltimore Orioles: This made more sense before they lost 10 of 12. They're awful on the corners, 11th in runs scored and 11th in OBP. They could have been a sleeper fit; now they'll be looking to trade away players such as Aubrey Huff.

Cleveland Indians: For the second straight season production on the corners is their bugaboo. Dunn would address the problem that David Dellucci and Trot Nixon haven't. Or they could just call up Shin-Soo Choo and get 80% of the production for none of the cost. General manager Mark Shapiro is more likely to add a pitcher than a hitter.

Atlanta Braves: Take this with a grain of salt, but the Braves are in on Dunn, and might have piqued Krivsky's interest, because they have young pitching and middle infield talent down on the farm that they could move. John Schuerholz used to make big in-season deals all the time, but it's been a while since he's made a major move in the summertime. Dunn might float between first base and left field as a Brave, with Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Matt Diaz sharing time around him.

Los Angeles Dodgers: While he'd be an upgrade on Andre Ethier or Nomar Garciaparra, the twin problems of realpolitik and defense raise their ugly heads. A Dunn/Juan Pierre/Luis Gonzalez outfield is untenable, and playing Dunn at first base would necessitate benching the popular though unproductive Garciaparra in the first year of a three-year contract. The Dodgers have prospects to move, and Ned Colletti isn't shy about doing so, but I don't see the fit.

Chicago White Sox: They desperately need offense and they've been playing Triple-A guys in the outfield corners. Dunn isn't really the kind of player that either Ozzie Guillen or Kenny Williams typically target, although picking up Jim Thome has worked out well. Their system isn't great, and you could argue that they shouldn't even be playing for 2007 at this point.

Milwaukee Brewers: They never walk, and that flaw has seen their OBP and runs ranks slip steadily since their hot start. At that, though, the only place Dunn could play for them is left field, and there's little chance that they would move Geoff Jenkins aside for a better version of Geoff Jenkins.

St. Louis Cardinals: Their lot is similar to the Brewers', in that they could use a bat like Dunn's but need him at positions for which he's not suited. Their system is fairly shallow, as well; they'd have a hard time matching the offers Krivsky will field from deeper teams.

That leaves five teams as the top suitors for Big Red. In reverse order:

Oakland Athletics: The A's are 13th in the AL in runs, 10th in EqA, and 13th in SLG. Another low-batting average guy isn't the best fit for this offense -- they could really use a .320/.370/.470 hitter in the middle of their lineup -- but Dunn's power would help them given how little they're getting from DH and left field. No team appreciates a hitter of Dunn's caliber like the A's, who recently rescued the failed-prospect version of Dunn, Jack Cust, from oblivion.

Look more closely, though, and while the poetry of a Billy Beane/Adam Dunn marriage remains, the details don't ring true. Asking Dunn to play left field in the Coliseum is probably a bad idea, especially alongside Nick Swisher. They could use him at DH, catch Mike Piazza after he returns, and bench Jason Kendall, but that would also mean a defensive hit. The A's have gotten a lot of mileage out of strong defenses the past few seasons, and their low-strikeout rotation needs to be protected. Beane knows better than anyone that he can replicate most of Dunn's production with less-expensive players whom he can control for longer.

The only way this makes sense for the A's is if they decide to catch Piazza five days a week. The upgrade from Kendall to Dunn would make a deal worthwhile. Unless that unlikely plan is implemented, there's no deal here.

San Diego Padres: Terrmel Sledge hasn't been the answer in left field for the Padres, who actually have a pretty good offense that looks worse than it really is because of their home park. Some of the problems Dunn creates for the A's would be in play here, including putting a poor defender in a very difficult home outfield. Three True Outcome hitters like Dunn may have less value in parks where the third outcome is hard to come by, while the relative importance of hits, and advancing on hits, is increased. Like the A's, though, the Padres have a real need for an additional power hitter.

The Padres have prospects to trade, although they're a bit deeper in hitters than pitchers; Kyle Blanks and Matt Antonelli come to mind, but Chase Headley is unavailable. Krivsky is likely to be focused on pitching in any deal. Kevin Towers is generally aggressive when it comes to making deals, and he's certainly aware that his team has come up short at the plate in consecutive Division Series. Dunn would make this a well-above-average offense.

So, that really leaves these next three teams as by far the best fits for Dunn, for any number of reasons:

New York Yankees: Yankee first basemen, 2007: Doug Mientikiewicz (DL), Josh Phelps, Miguel Cairo, Jason Giambi (DL). The current solution of playing Cairo at first base just about every day is baseball malpractice, and it will continue until Brian Cashman gives Joe Torre a better option. As good as this offense is supposed to be, remember that it's also starting Robinson Cano and Melky Cabrera, neither of whom has a .330 OBP this year. Dunn would be a huge upgrade.

Last year, the Yankees managed to get Bobby Abreu for a collection of players they would never miss. Could they make a similar deal in 2007? Obviously, Philip Hughes is untouchable, but would one of the '06 draftees, Ian Kennedy or Joba Chamberlain, be made available, along with Tyler Clippard? The Yankees don't want to part with Jose Tabata, which may not hurt when matching up with the Reds, who are already loaded with outfield prospects. The Abreu steal aside, Cashman hasn't been looking for quick fixes of late, preferring to add to the system. His willingness to be flexible about that plan is the key to acquiring Dunn. As lousy as May was for the Yankees, they opened play on Friday 7 games behind the Red Sox. This is a race again.

Los Angeles Angels: Bill Stoneman has seen a number of prospects come through the system, fail and subsequently lose all of their value, but he has never leveraged any of their reputations to help the major-league squad. Is this the year he does so, with the Angels in first place in a winnable division, two DHs with sub-.300 OBPs and another crop of prospects cresting?

Take Brandon Wood and Nick Adenhart off the table. No team can throw bulk at the Reds the way the Angels can, with Joe Saunders and Chris Bootcheck and Dustin Moseley (an ex-Reds prospect himself). They have a high-upside arm in Felipe Arredondo and a converted infielder such as Sean Rodriguez; that might get it done. It's probably too much to expect Stoneman to cash in the suddenly unimpressive Ervin Santana or the high-upside Hanley Statia, but he probably doesn't have to in this deal.

The Angels would normally be the team least likely to trade for a big-name player, but in this case they're the second-most likely. That's because the best fit for Dunn is the team run by Krivsky's former boss...

Minnesota Twins: Stop me if you've heard this one before. The Twins have a strong pitching staff and they play good defense, but their offense isn't quite up to par. They could use a legitimate middle-of-the-order hitter, even one who doesn't play defense, because their DH slot is open.

Dunn may not be the type of player the Twins usually look for, but a similar player became a hero -- and the American League MVP -- a year ago. If the Twins were willing to start the year with Matt Garza and Kevin Slowey and Scott Baker and Glen Perkins in the minors, then it stands to reason that they can use one or two of those guys to bring Dunn north. Remembering that Garza recently angered the organization with his comments, one of those guys, along with a shortstop suspect such as Trevor Plouffe or a closer suspect like Eduardo Morlan, might get it done. The Reds might even buy in to the idea that Denard Span is a baseball player.

The Twins' inability to draft and develop hitters since Joe Mauer was selected is a problem here, as they don't have much in the way of attractive position-player prospects. Their sheer quantity of pitchers, though, makes them a factor. The Reds have had a perceived lack of pitching since the day Krivsky took the job, and always remember Joe Sheehan's GM Theory: All GMs, no matter what their team actually needs, think they need pitching.

OnBaseMachine
06-15-2007, 09:57 PM
Garza, Morlan, and Plouffe for Dunn? I would probably do that. Garza is going to be a stud - I would love to have him and Homer Bailey in the rotation for the next decade.

edabbs44
06-15-2007, 10:28 PM
Garza, Morlan, and Plouffe for Dunn? I would probably do that. Garza is going to be a stud - I would love to have him and Homer Bailey in the rotation for the next decade.

Sign me up, though I think it is Morlan or Plouffe.

wally post
06-15-2007, 10:39 PM
By Joe Sheehan, BaseballProspectus.com

To his discredit, Krivsky is again largely focused on adding a reliever, in particularly a closer, in a Dunn deal. For a team that may not win 120 games between now and Opening Day 2009, it's a ridiculous approach.

I couldn't agree more here! Krivsky needs to step up and deal for talent. That's what we need. The small touches need to be applied later.

redsmetz
06-15-2007, 11:10 PM
While I understand the logic, and the contract is certainly structured this way, I don't think the voiding of the option is the deal-wrecker many presume. I believe if a trade comes along, there will open a window to negotiate an extension. No one will make this trade with a rent-a-player - if it gets done, it will be under a 48 hour window of negotiation.

I doubt seriously too that BP is really privy to what WK is or isn't asking for. It seems to me they throw darts at the board and that's about it.

WVPacman
06-15-2007, 11:18 PM
Milwaukee Brewers: They never walk, and that flaw has seen their OBP and runs ranks slip steadily since their hot start. At that, though, the only place Dunn could play for them is left field, and there's little chance that they would move Geoff Jenkins aside for a better version of Geoff Jenkins.

St. Louis Cardinals: Their lot is similar to the Brewers', in that they could use a bat like Dunn's but need him at positions for which he's not suited. Their system is fairly shallow, as well; they'd have a hard time matching the offers Krivsky will field from deeper teams.


Yeah boy I really see us trading him to one of these two teams in our division.:laugh:

RedEye
06-15-2007, 11:28 PM
Good god. Does anyone else get an upset stomach when they read this kind of article? It's not that I'm against trading Dunn, but I just have ZERO confidence that Wayne will get ANYTHING of value back in return. If he flips Dunn for two relief pitchers, I might just be done following the team for this year (okay, granted that's an unrealistic threat that I've made many times over the past 20 years or so, but you get my point...)

Aronchis
06-15-2007, 11:28 PM
Good god. Does anyone else get an upset stomach when they read this kind of article? It's not that I'm against trading Dunn, but I just have ZERO confidence that Wayne will get ANYTHING of value back in return. If he flips Dunn for two relief pitchers, I might just been done following the team for this year (okay, granted that's an unrealistic threat that I've made many times over the past 20 years or so, but you get my point...)

At least you would know one way or another.

Red Leader
06-15-2007, 11:29 PM
Some teams might be more interested in Dunn as a "rent a player." Some teams like the Twins for example might want his bat for this year, but not tie themselves to a long term contract and a big contract with him.

Just throwing that out there.

Big Klu
06-15-2007, 11:30 PM
Yeah boy I really see us trading him to one of these two teams in our division.:laugh:

Exactly what I was thinking! :laugh:

RedEye
06-15-2007, 11:33 PM
• Los Angeles Angels: Bill Stoneman has seen a number of prospects come through the system, fail and subsequently lose all of their value, but he has never leveraged any of their reputations to help the major-league squad. Is this the year he does so, with the Angels in first place in a winnable division, two DHs with sub-.300 OBPs and another crop of prospects cresting?

Take Brandon Wood and Nick Adenhart off the table. No team can throw bulk at the Reds the way the Angels can, with Joe Saunders and Chris Bootcheck and Dustin Moseley (an ex-Reds prospect himself). They have a high-upside arm in Felipe Arredondo and a converted infielder such as Sean Rodriguez; that might get it done. It's probably too much to expect Stoneman to cash in the suddenly unimpressive Ervin Santana or the high-upside Hanley Statia, but he probably doesn't have to in this deal.

The Angels would normally be the team least likely to trade for a big-name player, but in this case they're the second-most likely. That's because the best fit for Dunn is the team run by Krivsky's former boss...


If Wayne trades Dunn for any package including Dustin Mosely, I'm not sure what I'll do. My wife will probably have to make sure to keep me away from all sharp objects, that's for sure.

RedEye
06-15-2007, 11:35 PM
At least you would know one way or another.

That's true. And I suppose then the Adam Dunn trade speculation threads would end... and the Adam Dunn trade commiseration threads would begin.

Aronchis
06-15-2007, 11:39 PM
That's true. And I suppose then the Adam Dunn trade speculation threads would end... and the Adam Dunn trade commiseration threads would begin.

and we start the countdown to the end of Wayne Krivsky. He makes a deal like that, he is done. Period.

WVPacman
06-15-2007, 11:40 PM
Good god. Does anyone else get an upset stomach when they read this kind of article? It's not that I'm against trading Dunn, but I just have ZERO confidence that Wayne will get ANYTHING of value back in return. If he flips Dunn for two relief pitchers, I might just been done following the team for this year (okay, granted that's an unrealistic threat that I've made many times over the past 20 years or so, but you get my point...)


I agree with you 100% I mean I don't want him traded BUT I would'nt mind to see him go if we get something that could help the reds now.Like I said the other night there is no way that the reds could get anything in a trade concerning Dunn.

RedEye
06-15-2007, 11:50 PM
I agree with you 100% I mean I don't want him traded BUT I would'nt mind to see him go if we get something that could help the reds now.Like I said the other night there is no way that the reds could get anything in a trade concerning Dunn.

I have to think there is SOME way they could get a good deal. My problem is that I just don't know if our GM has the patience or the wherewithal to find it. I hope he makes me eat crow, I really do.

LoganBuck
06-15-2007, 11:56 PM
Some teams might be more interested in Dunn as a "rent a player." Some teams like the Twins for example might want his bat for this year, but not tie themselves to a long term contract and a big contract with him.

Just throwing that out there.

IMO, the Twins are a win NOW team. With Johan Santana up for Free Agency. A bat like Dunn's in that lineup with a healthy Maurer could lead them to a title.

WVPacman
06-16-2007, 12:00 AM
I have to think there is SOME way they could get a good deal. My problem is that I just don't know if our GM has the patience or the wherewithal to find it. I hope he makes me eat crow, I really do.


I see whats your saying and besides your point was proven with the trade with the Nationals.I really thought that he would have waited longer and looked at other deals before pulling the trigger.

WVRedsFan
06-16-2007, 12:21 AM
With Adam Dunn, these Reds are averaging 4.52 runs per game. Take out Adam Dunn and his .61 runs per game RBI average and you move the Reds to about 3.91 runs per game. His replacement would be Norris Hopper or Ryan Freel, i suspect who have historically averaged driving in +/- .18 runs per game so you are down to 4.07 runs per game. In order for us to get a bullpen pitcher to compensate for Dunn's performance, he ould have to have a 0.57 ERA the rest of the year, and pitch approximately 100 innings. Ain't nobody out there like that. Especially for Adam Dunn. Add to that the success that Mr. Krivsky has had with relief pitchers, and this would be a horrible mistake.

I have no doubt he would do it and will do it. Is it for the future? Not on your life. This team from the owner (who believes that when Bray and Eddie get back, we'll start winning) to the manager (who loves that veteran presence), simply doesn't get it. You must score runs as well as prevent them from scoring. Trading your RBI leader for a gosh-darn (I'm being nice here) relief pitcher is subject to a test for insanity. Getting to the future would be trading Hatteberg, Conine,Castro, Stanton, Moeller, Majewski (if possible), Weathers, and a couple of other players and bringing in the kids. Your offense would still be intact and you could play for the future.

Of course, with the mess that is the Reds, that's not going to happen. These fools think we can still win with the personnel we have minus Dunn. Griffey, and with a little more relief pitching.

Vomit...:barf:

M2
06-16-2007, 01:22 AM
Bill Stoneman has seen a number of prospects come through the system, fail and subsequently lose all of their value, but he has never leveraged any of their reputations to help the major-league squad.

To me that's the key sentence in the entire Sheehan piece. Far too many teams seem to auditioning for the part of either Estragon or Vladimir in "Waiting for Godot". I remember a few years back when folks in the media and baseball industry were insisting Edwin Jackson was WAAAAAAAAY more valuable than a good everyday player like Dunn.

Los Anaheim literally has four shortstops in the majors and upper minors. Meanwhile it needs an impact bat, but it refuses to turn its prospect windfall into usable talent. Minnesota's been sitting on young pitchers that haven't been materializing for years. That club might be wearing World Series rings if it had dealt arms like Scott Baker and J.D. Durbin while their stock was high.

I understand wanting to keep ahold of a few key prospects, but it seems like some organizations have a dozen plus on the untouchable list. That's pure insanity. No system has a dozen future frontline major leaguers in its system at this moment, not one. Make a trade for some right now, try to win something. I sometimes wonder if MLB execs have simply lost the plot.

BCubb2003
06-16-2007, 01:29 AM
either Estragon or Vladimir

I know Vlad but whom did Estragon play for?

Big Klu
06-16-2007, 01:37 AM
I know Vlad but whom did Estragon play for?

Ahhhhh......!

Krusty
06-16-2007, 08:47 AM
If Wayne K. could acquire Perkins and Garza in the same deal for Dunn.......uh, where do you sign off on the deal?

IslandRed
06-16-2007, 10:16 AM
Good god. Does anyone else get an upset stomach when they read this kind of article? It's not that I'm against trading Dunn, but I just have ZERO confidence that Wayne will get ANYTHING of value back in return. If he flips Dunn for two relief pitchers, I might just be done following the team for this year (okay, granted that's an unrealistic threat that I've made many times over the past 20 years or so, but you get my point...)

We commented on that in one of the other threads. Not sure where that came from, since the other rumors floating around didn't say the Reds were chasing relievers. See the Angels thread -- and sure enough, it's, "why are we looking for a second baseman?" People love to extrapolate. Maybe it's not that they're fixated on second basemen as a need, but they love Kendrick specifically. Some other team may have been asked about a potential closer because that's the best of what they have. To me, that's exactly what the Reds should be doing.

red-in-la
06-16-2007, 11:09 AM
If Krivsky ends up trading the two golden chips (Kearns and Dunn) and ends up with nothing, he will have made Dick Wagner look like a baseball genius....by comparison.

I have to think Yankees here....only because they don't seem to mind throwing their farm system away for a rent-a-player........

westofyou
06-16-2007, 11:32 AM
Kearns looks more like pyrite then gold at this juncture.

VR
06-16-2007, 11:38 AM
Kearns looks more like pyrite then gold at this juncture.

Lopez has been worse. Yikes.

Spitball
06-16-2007, 11:47 AM
If Krivsky ends up trading the two golden chips (Kearns and Dunn) and ends up with nothing, he will have made Dick Wagner look like a baseball genius....by comparison.

This is one reason I think there is a strong possibility that Dunn won't be traded. If the Kearns/Lopez trade had not been such a public relations disaster, I believe Krivsky would be able to boldly go out and trade Dunn. Trading one of the stars of a team is always a tricky matter, but now there is added pressure.

If Dunn were the only attractive "rent a slugger" option out there, I believe there would be teams willing to make attractive competitive offers for him. However, there are plenty of potential "rent a sluggers" out there this year. I don't believe Krivsky will be offered a package from another club that he can feel confident about announcing to the Cincinnati public in a news conference.

flyer85
06-16-2007, 01:52 PM
To me that's the key sentence in the entire Sheehan piece. Far too many teams seem to auditioning for the part of either Estragon or Vladimir in "Waiting for Godot". I remember a few years back when folks in the media and baseball industry were insisting Edwin Jackson was WAAAAAAAAY more valuable than a good everyday player like Dunn.

Los Anaheim literally has four shortstops in the majors and upper minors. Meanwhile it needs an impact bat, but it refuses to turn its prospect windfall into usable talent. Minnesota's been sitting on young pitchers that haven't been materializing for years. That club might be wearing World Series rings if it had dealt arms like Scott Baker and J.D. Durbin while their stock was high.

I understand wanting to keep ahold of a few key prospects, but it seems like some organizations have a dozen plus on the untouchable list. That's pure insanity. No system has a dozen future frontline major leaguers in its system at this moment, not one. Make a trade for some right now, try to win something. I sometimes wonder if MLB execs have simply lost the plot.being able to correctly assess tha talent in your own organization is the key ability of a GM. Like I've said it's what has made Schuerholz a success. A good GM knows which prospects to deal(and when) and those he needs to keep.

flyer85
06-16-2007, 01:57 PM
If all Wayne ends up with is pitching prospects he is making a mistake.

KronoRed
06-16-2007, 02:03 PM
This is one reason I think there is a strong possibility that Dunn won't be traded. If the Kearns/Lopez trade had not been such a public relations disaster, I believe Krivsky would be able to boldly go out and trade Dunn. Trading one of the stars of a team is always a tricky matter, but now there is added pressure.


I don't see Wayne as a guy who cares about PR, he probably leaves that all to Bob, if he signs off on it I can Dunn being shipped out for a less then stellar return

Spitball
06-16-2007, 03:23 PM
I don't see Wayne as a guy who cares about PR, he probably leaves that all to Bob, if he signs off on it I can Dunn being shipped out for a less then stellar return

Except I doubt a general manager can ever afford not to care about PR if the fans stop coming to games. Remember, there really isn't an urgency to trading Dunn. They signed him to that contract with every intention of keeping him, or they wouldn't have included the void option in event of a trade. The Reds can hold onto Dunn if they can't get a decent return.

KoryMac5
06-18-2007, 12:41 PM
Except I doubt a general manager can ever afford not to care about PR if the fans stop coming to games. Remember, there really isn't an urgency to trading Dunn. They signed him to that contract with every intention of keeping him, or they wouldn't have included the void option in event of a trade. The Reds can hold onto Dunn if they can't get a decent return.

Olney was on Espn today discussing Dunn. He said the contract continues to be the biggest obstacle in trading Dunn even with his recent play being sooo good. Teams like the Angels and Dodgers don't want to give up three players for a guy who can opt out at the end of the year. Plus his K's are a concern for many of these teams, they just don't know how much he can inject into their offense.

flyer85
06-18-2007, 12:45 PM
they just don't know how much he can inject into their offense.generally guys in the top 10 in the league in OPS don't inject much in the offense.

I honestly think if he gets dealt it will be the A's. Beane is one of the few GMs who understands what Dunn is and what he isn't. He also knows what other GMs want(and is the master of the three way deal) and at some point I think krivsky will bite the bullet and take a bad deal from someone. The Dodgers are the most logical trading partner but they are the wrong organization.

M2
06-18-2007, 12:45 PM
Kearns looks more like pyrite then gold at this juncture.

That's an issue for the Nats, not the Reds. He stopped being an issue for the Reds on the day he was traded (for far less than he should have been).

If the franchise gets as little from a Dunn trade as it did the Kearns/Lopez deal, you can turn off the lights on this decade.

BuckeyeRedleg
06-18-2007, 12:48 PM
Olney was on Espn today discussing Dunn. He said the contract continues to be the biggest obstacle in trading Dunn even with his recent play being sooo good. Teams like the Angels and Dodgers don't want to give up three players for a guy who can opt out at the end of the year. Plus his K's are a concern for many of these teams, they just don't know how much he can inject into their offense.

Another example of why last year's mirage set this club back.

If they indeed want to deal him and have been planning on doing it for sometime, 2006 would have been the time to do it. The contract looks a heck of a lot better for the team acquiring him and gives them a full year to work on an extension.

The Reds, in turn, get better return. If they deal him now, they get way less.

2006 set this organization back a few years.

flyer85
06-18-2007, 12:53 PM
Another example of why last year's mirage set this club back.This organization has still not bought in to the need to tear it down to build it back up. For the last decade a year by year inability to admit they are not a contender just sets them back further. If they could admit to themselves they weren't a contender this year and won't be next year there are a number of trades that need to be made BEFORE you get around to dealing Dunn and Jr. You unload the flotsam and jetsam and see what kind you get before you trade the valuable property.

paulrichjr
06-18-2007, 01:00 PM
Another example of why last year's mirage set this club back.

If they indeed want to deal him and have been planning on doing it for sometime, 2006 would have been the time to do it. The contract looks a heck of a lot better for the team acquiring him and gives them a full year to work on an extension.

The Reds, in turn, get better return. If they deal him now, they get way less.

2006 set this organization back a few years.

True... I agree 100%. I know this sounds weird to say but just hanging on over the last few years has been one of the worst things that this club could do. They would win a few games and get within 5 or 6 back in a weak division and then they wouldn't make trades for the future but instead make them for a pie in the sky present. Tear it down and build it up quick would have been better than chinese torture which is what I think we are in now. That being said I am not so sure that Dunn's contract will make him that hard to move. Everyone says that stuff but it isn't the end of the deadline yet. At the end I can see someone "overpaying" for him.

westofyou
06-18-2007, 01:01 PM
If the franchise gets as little from a Dunn trade as it did the Kearns/Lopez deal, you can turn off the lights on this decade.

Yep, might as well fall on the sword if that occurs.

I'm also all for dealing Griffey, his value is at a peak after quite awhile... time to cash in those chips.

Speaking of Mirages, this year has been a delightful way to celebrate the ten year anniversary of the arrival of Chris Stynes and Jon Nunnelly.

flyer85
06-18-2007, 01:05 PM
I'm also all for dealing Griffey, his value is at a peak after quite awhile... time to cash in those chips.and Lohse, and Weathers, and Conine, and Hatteberg

Johnny Footstool
06-18-2007, 01:06 PM
If the franchise gets as little from a Dunn trade as it did the Kearns/Lopez deal, you can turn off the lights on this decade.

Reminds me of the "return" the Royals got for Jermaine Dye, Johnny Damon, and Carlos Beltran.

Angel Berroa? AJ Hinch?

But hey, John Buck is having a decent season (finally). And Mark Teahen is, well, replacement-level talent.

Reds1
06-18-2007, 01:39 PM
Man, this all makes me so nervous. We already have a team full of prospects and to trade the production Dunn can do for the hope one or two works out just scares the hell out of me. Now, if we could get the trade done and pre-work a deal for Dunn to come back next year as a free agent I would be all for it. LOL :) Didn't this happen with Kent Merker? Well, I know it wasn't pre-planned, but he came back to the reds shortly after being traded.

Chip R
06-18-2007, 01:41 PM
I'm wondering why all of a sudden renting a player has become a bad thing? :dunno:

Also, I'm sure you all are familiar with the saying, "The customer is always right." Just playing devil's advocate here but it seems to me that the majority of customers (Reds Fans who go to games) want Dunn traded. Some may want more for him than others but the general consensus is that they want him gone. So, if the customer is always right, should Wayne trade Dunn? Obviously even the most avid Dunn hater would like something in return but if the fans want him gone, should Wayne trade him and get the best deal he can for him?

Reds1
06-18-2007, 04:13 PM
I'm wondering why all of a sudden renting a player has become a bad thing? :dunno:

Also, I'm sure you all are familiar with the saying, "The customer is always right." Just playing devil's advocate here but it seems to me that the majority of customers (Reds Fans who go to games) want Dunn traded. Some may want more for him than others but the general consensus is that they want him gone. So, if the customer is always right, should Wayne trade Dunn? Obviously even the most avid Dunn hater would like something in return but if the fans want him gone, should Wayne trade him and get the best deal he can for him?

The problem is you can't get a concensus.(sp) I don't want him gone, but for the right deal I might. Trading him just to trade him for crap would make me as a fan not go to the ballpark. Now, I'm a huge fan and would watch on tv, but well - you get the point.

Love him or hate him, but when Dunn comes to bat people stay in their seat in hopes to see a 500 ft HR. He has what 215HRs.

RedEye
06-18-2007, 04:21 PM
I agree with Reds1. Don't trade him unless you can get a good return. I don't think there's going to be a $13.5 million way to replace Dunn's production during the offseason. I think we're losing sight of that.

Sea Ray
06-18-2007, 04:25 PM
If we can't get value for Dunn now I keep him and move him in the off season after we pick up his $13mill option. From what I've read we still would have about 11 teams eligible to trade him to according to his contract. That's a decent number. WK can't be of the mindset that he has to deal Dunn now. I don't want to see a Dave Williams coming back our way...

Chip R
06-18-2007, 04:39 PM
The problem is you can't get a concensus.(sp) I don't want him gone, but for the right deal I might. Trading him just to trade him for crap would make me as a fan not go to the ballpark. Now, I'm a huge fan and would watch on tv, but well - you get the point.



You're never going to know what all Reds Fans believe but just like in political polls and television ratings, a sample size will have to do. Based on that I think there clearly seems to be a consensus to trade him. I don't think it's 90-10 or 51-49 but it does seem that there is a strong urge to trade him. I'm not talking about those who would trade him only if there was a good sized return for him. I'm talking about the people who feel his negatives outweigh his positives. Some may feel stronger than others and some may want more for him than others but they feel that he should be traded.

I could be wrong but let's just say I am right and there does seem to be a consensus to trade Dunn. My question is since the fans spend their hard earned money to watch the Reds play, and if most of them feel Dunn should be traded, should Wayne do what the fans want and trade him for the best deal he can get? Is he obligated to trade Dunn if that is what the fans clearly desire? I say no but do others feel he should?

Sea Ray
06-18-2007, 04:44 PM
My question is since the fans spend their hard earned money to watch the Reds play, and if most of them feel Dunn should be traded, should Wayne do what the fans want and trade him for the best deal he can get? Is he obligated to trade Dunn if that is what the fans clearly desire? I say no but do others feel he should?


WK should do whatever helps the Reds become a winning team. That's what the fans want most of all

wheels
06-18-2007, 05:07 PM
Whoever just mentioned Dave Williams gave me the chills big time.

A Dave Williams-like return on Dunn is a very real possibility.

pedro
06-18-2007, 05:09 PM
Whoever just mentioned Dave Williams gave me the chills big time.

A Dave Williams-like return on Dunn is a very real possibility.

I just don't see it.

wheels
06-18-2007, 05:12 PM
I just don't see it.


I'm getting scared, though.

Johnny Footstool
06-18-2007, 05:14 PM
Whoever just mentioned Dave Williams gave me the chills big time.

A Dave Williams-like return on Dunn is a very real possibility.

Ugh.

I think a Maj/Bray/Clayton return is more likely, which would be slightly better. Not much, though.

paulrichjr
06-18-2007, 05:23 PM
Whoever just mentioned Dave Williams gave me the chills big time.

A Dave Williams-like return on Dunn is a very real possibility.

It's not going to happen. Dunn will be traded for at least one very good prospect, and I mean very good, or he won't be traded at all. (OK not Homer good but good)

I could see him being traded for a prospect like Votto.

IslandRed
06-18-2007, 05:26 PM
I don't know. Surely, at 27-43, the front office isn't fielding offers with the expectation the return will put us in the playoffs THIS season. If it is, well, forget it. That leaves a future-based return, and Krivsky needs to measure any offer against the baselines of (1) two high draft picks we could get just by letting Dunn walk and (2) the ability to pick up the option and try again next summer. If we accept a terrible return such as mentioned on this page, it'll likely be because Krivsky's under orders to dump payroll, NOW, and deals will be on the OBO (or best offer) basis. That would be coming straight from the owner's office and that's a scary thing to contemplate. But I prefer not to hang people for things they haven't done, so I'll wait and see what happens.

Aronchis
06-18-2007, 05:35 PM
If we accept a terrible return such as mentioned on this page, it'll likely be because Krivsky's under orders to dump payroll, NOW, and deals will be on the OBO (or best offer) basis. That would be coming straight from the owner's office and that's a scary thing to contemplate.

Then you aren't going to get that terrible of return, maybe a bit underwhelming, but not terrible. Dunn's value just off the bat is decent, what you are looking for is the kill, which may or may not be available.

PuffyPig
06-18-2007, 06:17 PM
The minimum return I would expect for Dunn would be a Billingsley/Young return from the Dodgers.

That is, a good cheap starter with real potential, and a young OF who could replace Dunn, and supply an .800 OPS as part of a platoon.

WVRedsFan
06-18-2007, 06:23 PM
Probably Krivksy has already found out that neither Dunn nor Griffey will bring much. Alan Cutler is screaming (which is his custom) tonight to trade both and get $36 million to work with, but hasn't mentioned the deferred payments which make Griffey essentially untradeable. He screams for pitching which he should know by now that Wayne isn't so good a judge of.

The problem with this team is the owner and the GM and the manager think this team is good and only another relief pitcher (we carry more than almost anyone) away from sweeping the last 100+ games). A team than can only win with the HR and the two biggest HR threats would be traded. The rest of the team cannot hit and run or run and hit. The team has a pitching staff who throws fly balls that go into the stands at frequent intervals.

Yeah, build for the future, but let someone else do it. I don't trust these guys.

BuckeyeRedleg
06-18-2007, 06:34 PM
Griffey really isn't owed that much. The deferred payments were factored into past payrolls. I think he's due $7M+ for the rest of this year, $12.5M for 2008, and a 4M buyout in 2009 (with an option for 2009).

flyer85
06-18-2007, 06:35 PM
Probably Krivksy has already found out that neither Dunn nor Griffey will bring much. Alan Cutler is screaming (which is his custom) tonight to trade both and get $36 million to work with, but hasn't mentioned the deferred payments which make Griffey essentially untradeable. .Reds have funded the deferred payments year by year. The team Jr would be traded to would only be only hook for funding the annuity for the last year of the contract.

KronoRed
06-18-2007, 06:38 PM
Griffey really isn't owed that much. The deferred payments were factored into past payrolls. I think he's due $7M+ for the rest of this year, $12.5M for 2008, and a 4M buyout in 2009 (with an option for 2009).

Yep that's something that a lot of radio/tv/paper people get wrong, the Reds have already put that cash away, it's basically a non factor when talking a JR deal.

Guacarock
06-18-2007, 07:03 PM
Griffey really isn't owed that much. The deferred payments were factored into past payrolls. I think he's due $7M+ for the rest of this year, $12.5M for 2008, and a 4M buyout in 2009 (with an option for 2009).

You're correct in that the Reds have been investing all along to cover Jr's deferred payments, so they are a non-factor as far as any potential trades.

But anyone who exercised his 2009 option would owe him $16.5 million for that year, and failure to exercise the option would cost his team the $4 million buyout plus his $12.5 million salary for 2008, for a grand total of $16.5 million next season.

The long and short of it: Acquiring Jr. would still be an expensive proposition for most teams.

Cyclone792
06-18-2007, 07:06 PM
The more I think about a potential Dunn trade, the more I believe that the chances of Dunn actually being dealt this season are actually fairly low. I've taken a look at a bunch of teams in the race who may be able to use Dunn, and I actually don't see many fits at all. And of the teams who actually do have a great fit, their organization isn't the type to value a player of his skill set.

I don't see the Reds dealing Dunn to an NL Central team. I could be wrong, but I just don't see that type of major deal happening between division rivals.
The White Sox and Orioles are falling apart. Scratch them off the list.
The Red Sox need a center fielder, not so much a corner outfielder (unless the corner outfielder is also a great defensive player whereby they'd shift Drew to center field). Unless Ortiz and/or Ramirez end up with a major injury, I don't see Dunn going to Boston.
The Tigers need bullpen help.
The Indians need all sorts of pitching help, both in the rotation and in the bullpen.
The Mariners offense isn't great shakes, but they need pitching and lots of it.
The Phillies need all sorts of pitching help.
The Mets already have Moises Alou and Shawn Green.

So who does that leave? The Dodgers, the Angels, the Padres, the Athletics, the Yankees, and the Braves?

The Dodgers may have a nice fit for Dunn. The problem is Dunn just isn't their type of player. The Dodgers used to maintain a front office that would have salivated over Dunn, but they managed to run those guys right out of town.

As for the Angels, they just got Garret Anderson back. It won't matter to them that Anderson has a lousy .265 on-base percentage, because Anderson is a proven Angel veteran. Stoneman won't have the stones to ante up for Dunn, and the Angels will be content with whatever Anderson provides. Plus, as long as Reggie Willits keeps on putting up a .400 on-base percentage in left field, the Angels may not need Dunn as much as some other people think they need him.

FWIW, if I've seen Ervin Santana's name on this forum once, I've seen it 1,000 times. As far as I'm concerned, Santana can stay in California because I have very little interest in him as a pitcher if the Angels actually do pony up an offer.

The Braves may be in on Dunn, but I have a sneaky feeling that Griffey could be a better fit for Atlanta than Dunn. Atlanta is one of the few places I could see Griffey waiving his no-trade clause for, and he'd presumably cost less than Dunn insofar as a return goes.

The Padres could use his bat, and they have an organization that would appreciate the type of bat Dunn provides. The problem is they could be petrified of Dunn's defense out in Petco, and it's one of a few stadiums where that fear could be legitimate. Peavy and Young accumulate nice strikeout numbers, but the rest of their rotation relies heavily on the San Diego defense.

The A's are in the same boat as the Padres; their strength has been their defense, and their pitching staff strikes out even less guys than San Diego's. I'm sure Beane would love to have Dunn, especially at a bargain price, but I'm not sure I see the fit here. Then again depending on the type of return Krivsky is asking, Beane could take Dunn and run, then work out a fit later. In a weird way, I actually see the A's as being the #2 potential suitor for Dunn right now.

And lastly, the Yankees, who I see as the #1 potential suitor for Dunn right now. Of course, the Yankees' problem is they could use more pitching rather than more offense, and I suspect that they'll go after pitching first and foremost. But if they can't find pitching, or if they're not happy with whatever pitching they do land, and if Giambi talked himself into not playing again in 2007, then I could see Yankees clamoring for Dunn as their big time acquisition this season.

Again, though, that's just my feeling on the Dunn take. If Krivsky wants to get rid of Dunn at whatever cost, he'll likely be gone. If Krivsky is actually looking for a legitimate return for Dunn, I envision Dunn being in a Reds uniform still on August 1st.

To me, guys like Kyle Lohse and David Weathers have a bunch of potential fits out there, because a lot of teams need pitching badly. If I'm Wayne Krivsky, I'm dangling Lohse and Weathers out there above everyone's heads trying to find some hidden gem.

M2
06-18-2007, 07:48 PM
Cyclone, I'd add the Indians, Tigers and Mets to the list.

The Indians and Tigers may want pitching, but wanting it and getting it are two different things. Meanwhile both clubs have got gaping holes in LF. Minnesota's back above .500 too and they've got a gaping LF hole as well. I'll invoke Rolling Stones theory here. You can't always get what you want, but if you try sometimes, you just might find you get what you need. These clubs need what Dunn's got. One more big bat might be enough to separate these clubs from the rest of the pack.

In particular the Tigers lack LH power. The Yankees, bizarre as it is to say, are short on LH power too.

The Red Sox, have nowhere for Dunn to play with Manny, Papi and Youk on board.

The Angels can try to bleed something out of Garret Anderson, but that's an awfully weak lineup.

I don't buy into the notion that the A's should fear Dunn's glove. It's simply not that much impact on the downside. Plus, Shannon Stewart's a butcher with a popgun arm in LF. If Dunn's a downgrade there, it's only by a tiny amount.

The Padres need offense. The Dodgers need offense. There comes a time when a team has to recognize its main weakness. Though the Dodgers could be stubborn enough not to address an obvious need. Also, they'd need to mentally punt on Nomar and either decide to move Dunn or Luis Gonzalez to first base without first opting for James Loney (I'm fighting back the laughter at the notion of Loney being viewed as a savior, but it could happen) before they'd get serious about a deal.

The problem with the NL Central is that the only team that's playing meaningful games is six deep in the OF.

The Mets aren't scoring of late and if Alou won't be back soon enough or if Carlos Delgado can't get his act together or if none of the options on the farm are ready then I'd expect Omar Minaya to get into the market for an big bat.

I agree Jr. makes more sense in Atlanta.

Dunn could add a lot of gusto to a lot of teams. Obviously you never know what ideas are kicking around in the skulls of various baseball execs, but I'd say he'd be a difference maker for a lot of contending teams.

Cyclone792
06-18-2007, 08:18 PM
Dunn could add a lot of gusto to a lot of teams. Obviously you never know what ideas are kicking around in the skulls of various baseball execs, but I'd say he'd be a difference maker for a lot of contending teams.

Oh I definitely agree with you. I'm just actually not very confident that many of the teams that could really use him are actually able to recognize that they'd be able to really use him.

For one reason or another, Dunn seems to be undervalued within a large portion of the baseball community. I have no idea how true those Reds/Angels rumors were, but if the Angels wouldn't even be willing to part with Kendrick for Dunn straight up, then it really makes me wonder if the Angels have any idea on Dunn's actual value. The Angels could definitely use him, and they've got the young talent to offer, but coming from an organization that has lived and died with a batting average driven offense for years, I'm not sure the Angels actually recognize Dunn's value.

Heck, I'm not even sure if Krivsky and the Reds themselves understand Dunn's value.

These are the main reasons why I'm sort of placing the Yankees and A's as frontrunners for Dunn, if he's moved. For some reason, I could envision the Yankees sending a bunch of forgettable pieces over for Dunn, just as they did with Abreu and Philly last season. I could also envision Beane recognizing the market undervaluing Dunn and scooping him up for a less-than-ideal return for the Reds. Neither of those two scenarios has me thrilled in the least bit.

If Krivsky is hellbent on trading Dunn, then my hope is teams such as the Tigers, Indians, and Mets jump into the fray.

It will be interesting to see what Headley does in San Diego and how the Padres view his performance in the coming weeks. I see the Headley promotion as the Padres trying to figure out if he'll be enough of an offensive addition, and how he plays could be a major factor in how serious they get in the Dunn running. If Headley falls on his face, San Diego could become a legitimate match.

M2
06-18-2007, 08:28 PM
Oh the Headley Lamarr jokes we could make if the Padres and Reds got that deal together.

Where's my froggy?

flyer85
06-18-2007, 08:29 PM
I think if he is dealt it will be the A's. Beane seems to have a feel what other GMs like and he is the master of three way deal. Like when he acquired Larngerhans so h could deal for Snelling

bucksfan2
06-19-2007, 09:44 AM
This is just a question on whether it could happen. I was curious if anyone thinks the reds could ship Dunn Detroit for Morath and Zumaya. I know Zumaya is on the DL right now but both of those players would definatly help the reds.

CrackerJack
06-19-2007, 01:18 PM
Some guy "e-mailed" Greg Doyel today on-air as I was out going to lunch, and said that per "his source," Dunn "has been traded" to the Padres for a reliever (has a .81 era in 22 ML innings) and a AAA starter (who was recently demoted and had very average stuff/minor league #'s) and that they would be announcing it later today.

I am totally forgetting the names as they were foreign to me for the most part, but if someone mentioned them, I would remember...or if anyone else heard it here also.

It sounded like a pretty typical Krivsky trade - IOW not so good.

M2
06-19-2007, 01:20 PM
Some guy "e-mailed" Greg Doyel today on-air as I was out going to lunch, and said that per "his source," Dunn "has been traded" to the Padres for a reliever (has a .81 era in 22 ML innings) and a AAA starter (who was recently demoted and had very average stuff/minor league #'s) and that they would be announcing it later today.

I am totally forgetting the names as they were foreign to me for the most part, but if someone mentioned them, I would remember...or if anyone else heard it here also.

It sounded like a pretty typical Krivsky trade - IOW not so good.

That would be Hampson and Hensley. If Krivsky made that deal, I'd need to take a serious break from rooting for the Reds.

Red Leader
06-19-2007, 01:22 PM
That would be Hampson and Hensley. If Krivsky made that deal, I need to take a serious break from rooting for the Reds.

Werd.

If Krivsky makes that deal this franchise might as well trade Griffey, Weathers, Harang, Arroyo, Hatteberg, Bailey and Votto because we won't be competing during their careers.

Cyclone792
06-19-2007, 01:23 PM
That would be Hampson and Hensley. If Krivsky made that deal, I'd need to take a serious break from rooting for the Reds.

One of my buddies sent me a message earlier in the day about the rumor. He mentioned it was being reported as a "weak rumor" on the radio. I told him to hope that it remains simply a weak rumor and nothing more.

Trading Dunn for Hampson and Hensley would be a monumental disaster of absolute epic proportions.

M2
06-19-2007, 01:25 PM
One of my buddies sent me a message earlier in the day about the rumor. He mentioned it was being reported as a "weak rumor" on the radio. I told him to hope that it remains simply a weak rumor and nothing more.

Trading Dunn for Hampson and Hensley would be a monumental disaster of absolute epic proportions.

We'd certainly have a new definition of what to call "The Trade."

CrackerJack
06-19-2007, 01:26 PM
Yeah, those were the names - and yes it was a fairly "weak rumor" according to them. Not sure where people come up with this stuff.

That said, it sounds all too believeable after some of the moves made in the last year or so. I surely hope it's not true.

Jaycint
06-19-2007, 01:30 PM
We'd certainly have a new definition of what to call "The Trade."

Yeah this would blast Kearns and Lopez right out of the universe of bad deals. Until this is announced I will try and force myself to believe Krivsky can't be that incompetent.

M2
06-19-2007, 01:33 PM
Yeah this would blast Kearns and Lopez right out of the universe of bad deals. Until this is announced I will try and force myself to believe Krivsky can't be that incompetent.

Same here.

Jaycint
06-19-2007, 01:40 PM
FWIW here is what I posted on another thread as my bare essentials I would want in return for Dunn:


As for the value most here think we should get in return for Dunn, I can't speak for everyone but my personal view is this would be fair:

1. I want a top three prospect from whichever organization we do the deal with. Position of this player isn't really of primary importance to me, I just want value in return if I'm giving up value. My worst nightmare in this whole Dunn saga is a quantity for quality deal where we get back a bunch of dreck that is supposed to overwhelm us in numbers.

2. Along with #1 I want either a steady (if not spectacular) relief arm or back of the rotation guy.

If I can't get 1 AND 2 then I don't deal Dunn at all. Pony up and pay him next year, sure it's a lot of money but what he brings to the table isn't easily replaced IMO.

Like I said above and will stand by, if you can't get at least that, you don't trade him.

PuffyPig
06-19-2007, 01:41 PM
One advantage we hold in trading Dunn this season, is that we don't actually have to do it. It's not like he's a FA after this season.

We can exercise our option on him next year, and trade him to a number of teams, as he doesn't have a full no trade deal.

No one is holding a gun to our head (yet).

flyer85
06-19-2007, 01:49 PM
We can exercise our option on him next year, and trade him to a number of teams, as he doesn't have a full no trade deal.I find it highly unlikely Dunn would hold up a trade next season. There is certainly no hurry or reason to trade Dunn and make a deal. Like Thom pointed out, if they deal dunn it is a trade on which they cannot miss.

schroomytunes
06-19-2007, 02:11 PM
Well IMHO the only guys that have any value right now for us are David Weathers, Adam Dunn, and Jeff Conine. Yeah there are others but these are the guys that might be able to net us something at the deadline. These guys can be replaced next year during free agency. We need to gain as much youth for the long haul, so here are my suggestions:

Trade #1: Adam Dunn to Anaheim for:
Erick Aybar and Dustin Moseley
---the Angels get their slugging LF, while the Reds get a replacement for Juan Castro and get a 5th starter in Moseley. Aybar eventually takes over when Gonzo leaves.

Trade #2: David Weathers to NYYankees for:
Joba Chamberlain
---the reds get a 22 year old power arm, who is currently at AA, While the Yankees shore up their late inning relief for another title run.

Trade #3: Jeff Conine to Atlanta for:
Zach Schreiber
---the Reds get another 25 year old arm for late inning relief, who is currently at AA, while the Braves get a cheap good bat to strengthen the bench and can play 1b/of.

flyer85
06-19-2007, 02:24 PM
Trade #1: Adam Dunn to Anaheim for:
Erick Aybar and Dustin Moseley
---the Angels get their slugging LF, while the Reds get a replacement for Juan Castro and get a 5th starter in Moseley. Aybar eventually takes over when Gonzo leaves.
I see little evidence thay Aybar is an everyday SS. He is a poor offensive player and an erratic(if sometimes spectacular) defensive one.

The Reds better get their OF replacement for Dunn in the trade because that players isn't currently in the upper minors, if they are there at all.

Sea Ray
06-19-2007, 02:35 PM
Trade #1: Adam Dunn to Anaheim for:
Erick Aybar and Dustin Moseley
---the Angels get their slugging LF, while the Reds get a replacement for Juan Castro and get a 5th starter in Moseley. Aybar eventually takes over when Gonzo leaves.



Am I the only one who says "uggh" at that one?

I want to see a higher ceiling than those two guys

membengal
06-19-2007, 02:37 PM
No, I "uggh'd" as well.

General question: if the Reds keep Dunn to the end of the season, and then don't renew his option, and he leaves via free agency, would they get supplemental pick compensation as a result for the 2008 draft? Because, if I understand correctly from the minors forum, that is supposed to be a very deep draft next year.

Rather than giving Dunn away for pennies on the dollar in a bad trade, I would rather watch him play this year, and get a high comp pick if such a thing is possible...

PuffyPig
06-19-2007, 02:56 PM
General question: if the Reds keep Dunn to the end of the season, and then don't renew his option, and he leaves via free agency, would they get supplemental pick compensation as a result for the 2008 draft?

As long as we offered him arbitration, we would.

wheels
06-19-2007, 06:21 PM
The only problem I have with comp picks is that it gives Wayne and co. an excuse to draft later round talent in the first and sandwich rounds.

They get these comp picks, yet they don't seem to budget enough to really make something of them. They never seem to want to really go all in.

That's got John Allen written all over it.

pedro
06-19-2007, 08:13 PM
The only problem I have with comp picks is that it gives Wayne and co. an excuse to draft later round talent in the first and sandwich rounds.

They get these comp picks, yet they don't seem to budget enough to really make something of them. They never seem to want to really go all in.

That's got John Allen written all over it.

They didn't draft any reaches in the early rounds this year though so I'm not so sure that that's the Reds M.O. anymore.

wheels
06-19-2007, 09:45 PM
They didn't draft any reaches in the early rounds this year though so I'm not so sure that that's the Reds M.O. anymore.

Yes, but the spectre of John Allen still floats.

You're probably correct, but old habits (by that I mean MY old habits) die hard. Any time I think about the draft, I get kind of queasy feeling from stuff that happened in years passed.

SandyD
06-19-2007, 10:35 PM
I was typing a reply to this thread when I heard a loud clap of thunder and the power flickered. Then a sort of loud "click" and the power went out.

It's back now, but I don't EXACTLY remember what I was saying ... except for:

I can't blame you there wheels

DoogMinAmo
06-19-2007, 10:36 PM
The only problem I have with comp picks is that it gives Wayne and co. an excuse to draft later round talent in the first and sandwich rounds.

They get these comp picks, yet they don't seem to budget enough to really make something of them. They never seem to want to really go all in.

That's got John Allen written all over it.

Oddly enough, the Reds were one of the teams that picked stock that fell due to signability. Check the sticky on draft signings on the minor league board for an article about the 37th round pick Scott Alexander who was a top 5 round talent that fell because of money demands. He states he is open to signing for the right price, he may end up being a steal. Hardly the Sowersly Red of past. John Allen may still be here, but I don't think he has the same laison power.

Spitball
06-19-2007, 11:16 PM
I see little evidence thay Aybar is an everyday SS. He is a poor offensive player and an erratic(if sometimes spectacular) defensive one.

What are you basing this on? Have you even seen him play???? I have and disagree, especially on the defenseive end.

pedro
06-19-2007, 11:56 PM
Yes, but the spectre of John Allen still floats.

You're probably correct, but old habits (by that I mean MY old habits) die hard. Any time I think about the draft, I get kind of queasy feeling from stuff that happened in years passed.

And rightly so. My hope is that John Allen is in the walk-in doing inventory on hot dogs right now.

REDREAD
06-20-2007, 09:17 PM
I think Wayne will make a bad deal for Dunn. The quesiton is whether he will deal him this year or pick up the option and deal Dunn next year.

Getting draft picks really isn't an option. Because the Reds would have to offer Dunn arbitration. I'm pretty sure that Dunn would gladly accept. If the Reds decline Dunn's 13.5 million option and offer Dunn arb, he'd surely accept and make more money. It seems like Dunn is comfortable here, it would definitely be a risk. On the other hand, if Jr and some of his other buddies were traded, maybe Dunn would opt for free agency.

I'm not a big fan of Wayne, but he's getting backed into a corner here. He almost has to trade Dunn to inject some desparately needed young talent into this organization. At the same time, Dunn's contract is going to be a hinderance to getting a good return.

IslandRed
06-20-2007, 09:52 PM
Getting draft picks really isn't an option. Because the Reds would have to offer Dunn arbitration. I'm pretty sure that Dunn would gladly accept.

I don't think so myself, although there's no way to be 100% sure right now. He's only 27, he'll have a good year in the counting stats. Someone's going to put a nice multi-year offer on the table.

flyer85
06-20-2007, 09:55 PM
What are you basing this on? track record in the minors.

Have you even seen him play???? Quite a bit, reminds me of the 2nd coming of Rey Olmedo.