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cincrazy
06-20-2007, 01:15 AM
I have to admit, I didn't think Homer Bailey would ever meet the hype that so many have bestowed upon him. He's the first gem of a pitching prospect this organization has had in years, and I was skeptical as to how he would handle his first year in the big leagues with so much pressure on his shoulders.

Well, if tonight is any indication, he'll handle all of the pressure quite well. The A's are a team that works the count, and I was worried that Homer would be out of the game early after throwing way too many pitches. But he passed a very important test tonight. He went right after them, and didn't blink an eye in the 6th as he mowed through Swisher and Chavez with a RISP and one run already in.

But my favorite part of the game was in the 5th (I'm pretty sure it was the 5th, anyways) when Bailey failed to get his foot on the bag during the attempted double play. He was visibly cursing himself walking back to the mound, and even after the very next pitch resulted in a 6-4-3 DP to get him out of the inning, he STILL seemed to be cursing himself over the previous missed opportunity. Tonight may have been the night that Homer Bailey TRULY arrived on the Cincinnati sports scene.

Homer, you had me from hello :luvu:

sonny
06-20-2007, 03:53 AM
Indeed, he was impressive. This is the kind of win that boosts the ol' confidence.

Eric_Davis
06-20-2007, 06:29 AM
Phillips and Junior were just as impressive.

From mlb.com on the A's website:

"OAKLAND -- Unless you're a die-hard A's fan, you probably had one of three reasons for being at McAfee Coliseum for Tuesday night's game against the visiting Reds.
Two of them -- you wanted to rock your old green-and-gold Aaron Harang jersey (No. 56) one last time, or you planned to pay homage to the Scott Hatteberg Era in Oakland -- didn't appear to be highly popular choices among the announced 19,351 in attendance.

The third -- you wanted to see Hall of Fame lock Ken Griffey Jr.'s sweet swing -- was the most likely, and Junior thanked you for coming by launching the 582nd home run of his career in the third inning.

But that wasn't the homer that haunted the A's during their 5-2 loss in the second game of a three-game Interleague series. Rather, it was a rail-thin, 21-year-old rookie righty named Homer Bailey.

"We ran into a pretty good pitcher tonight," A's manager Bob Geren said. "He was very impressive for a young guy. His fastball is 95 [miles per hour], he had a good breaking ball, good changeup. He really held us down."

The seventh pick in the first round of the 2004 First-Year Player Draft and much-hyped throughout his Minor League career, Bailey scattered two hits over seven innings in his third big-league start to help Cincy even the series while rendering Oakland's advance scouting reports useless.

"The reports said he was supposed to be erratic," said A's second baseman Mark Ellis.

"The reports said he didn't have very good command of his fastball," echoed Geren. "He did tonight. ... He didn't really match what we were expecting at all."

Not that Bailey didn't get some assistance. He walked four, but second baseman Brandon Phillips turned in a trio of spectacular plays that prevented the A's from doing what they'd done for Chad Gaudin -- keep his career-best five-game winning streak alive -- in his previous start.

Last Thursday in Houston, Gaudin gave up five earned runs on nine hits and four walks over 4 1/3 innings, but the offense picked him up and eventually won in 11 innings.

Gaudin wasn't all that bad here on Tuesday, allowing four earned runs on seven hits and two walks over 6 2/3 innings, but the offense's luck certainly was, and mostly when the ball was hit in Phillips' direction.

"He was awesome," Ellis said.

After Ellis drew a two-out walk in the second, Dan Johnson hit a grounder past a right-lunging Jeff Conine, the Reds' first baseman, that looked destined for the right-field grass until Phillips ranged to his left and uncorked an off-balance snap throw to Bailey, who was covering the bag, to end the inning.

"It seemed like he came out of nowhere," marveled Geren. "I remember writing '4-1' on my scorecard and thinking, 'I don't ever remember writing that down.'" ... He has some incredible athletic ability."

In the third, Phillips started an inning-ending double play with a sliding stop and a snap throw in the other direction, and in the fourth he dove to his left to steal a single from Jack Cust.

"We actually did hit some balls hard tonight," Ellis said, "but he was all over the place."

The ball that Griffey hit over the wall in right for his 19th homer of the year, Gaudin and rookie A's catcher Kurt Suzuki suggested, was yet another piece of evidence in Junior's case for a first-ballot pass to Cooperstown.

"It was a good pitch," Gaudin said. "Sometimes you've just gotta tip your cap."

"The pitch to Griffey was right where he wanted to put it," Suzuki said. "It was in a good location, and he just hit it out."

The Reds took a 3-0 lead in the second on three hits, two walks and a sacrifice fly, and Griffey's homer made it 4-0.

"I got myself into trouble early again, and didn't leave [the offense] with any room for error," Gaudin said.

Oakland trimmed the lead on an RBI double by Mark Kotsay in the sixth, got closer with Suzuki's first career homer, a one-out solo shot in the eighth, and teased the crowd by getting the tying run to the plate with two out in the ninth, but Bobby Crosby struck out.

"We gave it a pretty good finish," Geren said. "Just came up a little short."

-----------------------------------------------------------------

mth123
06-20-2007, 07:06 AM
Good performance. But for me the most encouraging thing the entire night was this item from Trent's blog.




Jerry said he didn't even think about putting Homer back out for the eighth with 93 pitches. Homer hadn't gone longer than 7 innings in any outing in the majors or minors this season and Jerry wasn't going to push it, he said. Homer said he wanted to go back out for the 8th, but he always does and he understood the decision.

That seems to go against Narron's pattern. Maybe he's figured it out (too late for Arroyo??) or maybe he's under orders. Either way, somebody in this organization just might be smart enough to keep from ruining Bailey. If so, IMO that is a nice surprise.

dman
06-20-2007, 07:29 AM
I went to last Thursday's game against the Angels and thought the same thing. Both teams know how to work the count and after that second inning last week, he settled in pretty good. I think Homer is doing a really great job out there and with the right mentoring he will explode (in a good way) as a major leaguer.

redsmetz
06-20-2007, 08:48 AM
That seems to go against Narron's pattern. Maybe he's figured it out (too late for Arroyo??) or maybe he's under orders. Either way, somebody in this organization just might be smart enough to keep from ruining Bailey. If so, IMO that is a nice surprise.

Perhaps it's the difference between a raw rookie pitcher and more seasoned veterans like Harrang and Arroyo. And yet, it's also possible that he recognized that Bailey didn't have gas in his last outing going in with 90 or so pitches. I'm just not convinced Jerry's as clueless as some think.

All in all, a very good game. It's been fun reading about it. And the write up from the MLB A's writer made me giddy. It's what is so maddening about this team. Games like this make you realize this team isn't as wretched as folks believe and their record indicates. The right word is "maddening".

Ravenlord
06-20-2007, 08:50 AM
from John Fay:


The A’s are known for their patience but Bailey negated that by throwing strikes early in the count.

"I knew they were going to patient," he said. "I kept to my game plan and tried to get Strike 1. Once you get one or two strikes on them, they’ve got to swing the bat."

Bailey attached no significance to pitching on the road as opposed to home - where his first two starts were.

"A baseball field’s a baseball field," he said. "No difference."
i love that he obviously read and retained the scouting report.

and from C. Trent:

"Bases are still white, we use wooden bats up here just like we did down there. We have jerseys and cleats," Bailey said. "Sure there's a lot more fans and bigger stadiums, but that (stuff) doesn't play a part when you're out there."

MrCinatit
06-20-2007, 09:31 AM
Oh, how I wish I had not had to work last night - it sounds like he pitched a rather good game, and looked impressive from the highlights.
Imagine how good his numbers would be had he been taken out earlier his last game; and if Hopper hadn't tried to play Dave Parker with a throw to home in the previous start.

Roy Tucker
06-20-2007, 09:46 AM
I have to say, I was one of the naysayers about bringing up Bailey and thought he wasn't ready yet. After watching him last night and seeing his continued improvement, I was wrong about it. He's ready. Holding his own (and more) against the Indians, Angels, and A's is saying something.

All professional athletes are competitive as all get-out. But Homer seems to ratchet it up a notch above the average MLBer. His competitiveness is one of his outstanding abilities.

traderumor
06-20-2007, 10:00 AM
He had good stuff last night, and while the walks continued (4 in seven IP won't cut it, but he is 21), he did have good command last night. Of the four walks, I think one was a long count (3-2 with a couple of fouls) while the other were four pitch temporary lapses. He also showed the plus curve last night, made a couple of guys look silly with it. I had to laugh at Brenneman and Welsh just going on and on about the decision to take him out.

bucksfan2
06-20-2007, 10:04 AM
I watched up to about the 5th inning and Bailey looked dominant. It got to the point where you were actually thinking he could put together another few hitless innings. One thing I noticed is that Bailey had made 3 starts and had 3 different catchers. Greg Maddox may have thrown to 3 different catchers over the past 3 years with 3 different organizations.

wolfboy
06-20-2007, 10:47 AM
He had good stuff last night, and while the walks continued (4 in seven IP won't cut it, but he is 21), he did have good command last night. Of the four walks, I think one was a long count (3-2 with a couple of fouls) while the other were four pitch temporary lapses. He also showed the plus curve last night, made a couple of guys look silly with it. I had to laugh at Brenneman and Welsh just going on and on about the decision to take him out.

On the four pitch walks, several of the pitches were close, maybe even borderline. With more experience, his location will get better. With a different ump, they might not have been four pitch walks. That being said, I agree that 4 walks over seven is worrisome.

Chip R
06-20-2007, 10:54 AM
I hate to throw cold water on this thread but we need to remember that Homer was pitching last night in a park and weather ideally suited for pitchers. His next start will be in Philly in a park and climate totally opposite Oakland's.

membengal
06-20-2007, 11:09 AM
Not a lot of deep flyball outs where the park "saved" him, as it were, though, Chip. Matter of fact, I don't really remember a ball that was tagged and had to be run down deep in the gaps all night, save Kotsays gapper to score the lone run. Not like Hamilton was covering crazy amounts of real estate to make plays...

I saw a ton of groundballs and weak pop-ups by and large. You can see the talent, regardless. And last night is further evidence that he is far from over-matched at this point as he works on his command etc.

RichRed
06-20-2007, 11:24 AM
Jerry said he didn't even think about putting Homer back out for the eighth with 93 pitches. Homer hadn't gone longer than 7 innings in any outing in the majors or minors this season and Jerry wasn't going to push it, he said. Homer said he wanted to go back out for the 8th, but he always does and he understood the decision.

I'm glad Narron took him out after 93 pitches but - and this is my lack of confidence in Jerry coming through - I really hope he undertands that the number of pitches is more important than the innings. I have to say I'm skeptical.

Nice to see Homer have such a strong outing though.

Chip R
06-20-2007, 11:38 AM
Not a lot of deep flyball outs where the park "saved" him, as it were, though, Chip. Matter of fact, I don't really remember a ball that was tagged and had to be run down deep in the gaps all night, save Kotsays gapper to score the lone run. Not like Hamilton was covering crazy amounts of real estate to make plays...

I saw a ton of groundballs and weak pop-ups by and large. You can see the talent, regardless. And last night is further evidence that he is far from over-matched at this point as he works on his command etc.


I understand that but we need to remember he was pitching in a climate which favors pitchers - cool, heavy air - and in a park where pop ups in foul territory can and usually are caught. Instead of pitching in 85 degree weather with 70% humidity, he's pitching in 60 degree weather with much lower humidity. That's going to keep a pitcher fresher than if he were pitching in the former conditions. I'm not taking anything away from Homer since the A's pitcher last night and Lohse pitched in the same conditions but much less effectively. These were ideal conditions for a pitcher. I'd have been disappointed if Homer had not pitched well in those conditions. But to be successful, you have to excel in all kinds of conditions. Next week he'll be in conditions ideal for hitters pitching against a team that hits well. If he shuts the Phillies down in Philly, that's going to be impressive.

westofyou
06-20-2007, 11:41 AM
I understand that but we need to remember he was pitching in a climate which favors pitchers - cool, heavy air - and in a park where pop ups in foul territory can and usually are caught. Instead of pitching in 85 degree weather with 70% humidity, he's pitching in 60 degree weather with much lower humidity. That's going to keep a pitcher fresher than if he were pitching in the former conditions. I'm not taking anything away from Homer since the A's pitcher last night and Lohse pitched in the same conditions but much less effectively. These were ideal conditions for a pitcher. I'd have been disappointed if Homer had not pitched well in those conditions. But to be successful, you have to excel in all kinds of conditions. Next week he'll be in conditions ideal for hitters pitching against a team that hits well. If he shuts the Phillies down in Philly, that's going to be impressive.

Pitchers love the Coliseum for all the reasons Chip just mentioned, the litmus test will continue and must be tested against other elements to see how it really plays out, that means sparkling performances in extreme hitters parks as well as extreme pitchers parks.

Johnny Footstool
06-20-2007, 11:46 AM
He had good stuff last night, and while the walks continued (4 in seven IP won't cut it, but he is 21), he did have good command last night. Of the four walks, I think one was a long count (3-2 with a couple of fouls) while the other were four pitch temporary lapses. He also showed the plus curve last night, made a couple of guys look silly with it. I had to laugh at Brenneman and Welsh just going on and on about the decision to take him out.

After Jack Cust struck out swinging, the Oakland commentators both seemed very impressed with Bailey's curve. They showed the replay and marveled at the 12-6 break and the location. I believe one of them said, "*That* is how you throw a curve."

NJReds
06-20-2007, 11:48 AM
Pitchers love the Coliseum for all the reasons Chip just mentioned, the litmus test will continue and must be tested against other elements to see how it really plays out, that means sparkling performances in extreme hitters parks as well as extreme pitchers parks.

His overall development is important. You can't judge on one or two starts. It takes time for young pitchers to show improvement in the majors. Look at the difficulty that Lincecum is having. Does that mean he's no good? Dwight Gooden is the only guy I can think of that dominated from his first day in the majors.

Redsland
06-20-2007, 11:50 AM
That seems to go against Narron's pattern. Maybe...he's under orders.
That's my guess.

westofyou
06-20-2007, 11:51 AM
His overall development is important. You can't judge on one or two starts.

Shoot, it should be one to two years, not starts.

Hence why I'm willing to say nice start in the pitchers park Homer, continue on and impress me. If you don't do it right away I'll know why.

Because you are hella young

Cyclone792
06-20-2007, 11:53 AM
After Jack Cust struck out swinging, the Oakland commentators both seemed very impressed with Bailey's curve. They showed the replay and marveled at the 12-6 break and the location. I believe one of them said, "*That* is how you throw a curve."

The Cust plate appearance was a microcosm of how dominant Bailey can be once/if he's able to harness his command on a consistent basis. The pitch sequence, location, and movement in that plate appearance pretty much gave Cust little to no chance to do anything at all.

Overall, I'm not at all thrilled about the four walks (that's going to bite him in the rear more times than most Reds fans realize), but I do think Bailey's command was better last night than his two previous starts. He seemed to have his command more often last night than in his two previous starts, and right now that trend of improvement is what I'm really looking at. I don't expect him to start striking out eight while walking only one in seven innings every night, but I do want to see hints of command improvement and development ... and I think we saw some of that last night.

Now he just needs to keep the trend of improved command going in a positive direction.

westofyou
06-20-2007, 11:55 AM
http://frontier.cincinnati.com/blogs/spring/


POSTGAME: Jerry said he didn't even think about putting Homer back out for the eighth with 93 pitches. Homer hadn't gone longer than 7 innings in any outing in the majors or minors this season and Jerry wasn't going to push it, he said. Homer said he wanted to go back out for the 8th, but he always does and he understood the decision. It was Weathers' 7th save that he recorded more than three outs.

lollipopcurve
06-20-2007, 12:17 PM
If you can't get excited about a talent like this in the Reds rotation, you've been too beaten back by decades of pitching woes.

It's a lot of fun to watch him now, and over time he's going to get better. It's obvious his curve and change can beat big league hitters if he locates well, and his fastball gets on hitters quicker than they anticipate. Combine that with what looks like a hunger to compete, and it's working for me.

Barbarossa
06-20-2007, 12:18 PM
Can anyone give us his stats against left handed hitters? Seemed like he went right after the lefties.:confused:

M2
06-20-2007, 12:44 PM
Nice game for the kid. I wouldn't call it amazing, but it was good. I like that he only threw 93 pitches. Main thing for Bailey is to stay healthy.

gonelong
06-20-2007, 01:20 PM
Nice game for the kid. I wouldn't call it amazing, but it was good. I like that he only threw 93 pitches. Main thing for Bailey is to stay healthy.

I thought it was a real nice game that he threw last night. He did give up 4 BB I think, and it took a few DPs to clean up the mess, but he got it done.

IMO the most impressive thing was that he was able to conserve his pitch count and get through 7 innings.

GL

Superdude
06-20-2007, 01:36 PM
Last night was my first time watching Homer pitch on TV. It looked like his fastball finally lived up to the scouting report. He sat in the 90-91 range more often than not in his first start, but he was bringin' 95-96MPH gas nearly every pitch in the 7th inning.

What I was impressed with was his changeup. That second at bat to Chavez was great. 93MPH fastball, 82MPH changeup, and then blew him away with a 95MPH heater in on the hands. His curveball needs work though. I know everyone's had a wet dream over Homer's performance last night, but walking more than you strikeout is not usually going to be associated with seven inning one run gem. The command of his curve is one thing, but it's not really consistent either. He snapped off a few that were really good (he needs to write Jack Cust an apology note), but a lot of them just sort of rolled into the strikezone. When he turns that into a consistent out pitch is when he'll really take off in my opinion.

bucksfan
06-20-2007, 01:39 PM
I thought it was a real nice game that he threw last night. He did give up 4 BB I think, and it took a few DPs to clean up the mess, but he got it done.

IMO the most impressive thing was that he was able to conserve his pitch count and get through 7 innings.

GL

I can live with 4 walks over 7 if he only gives up 2 hits! He certainly seemed "efficient" out there, but those DPs will do that for you too. Putting all the numbers aside, I just loved his approach, demeanor, and the fact that he really seemed to have commend of the corners. The fact that he displayed agood curve and change are also very encouraging. I had no business staying up that late, but am sure glad I did.

KronoRed
06-20-2007, 02:21 PM
That seems to go against Narron's pattern. Maybe he's figured it out (too late for Arroyo??) or maybe he's under orders. Either way, somebody in this organization just might be smart enough to keep from ruining Bailey. If so, IMO that is a nice surprise.
Certainly came as a shock to me, I'm hoping orders came down after his first 2 starts, guess we'll see if he's out there throwing 120 in Philly ;)

Chip R
06-20-2007, 02:47 PM
I wonder if Homer's success last night was due in part to the fact that the A's like to take a lot of pitches. From their comments it appears they were expecting Homer to not have very good command of his pitches and they could just get hitters' counts and either wait for a 3-1 fastball or walk. Much to Homer's credit, he got his pitches over early and often and the A's had trouble with him.

I wonder if Homer would fare so well with a team of free swingers? The Indians are a patient team and while Homer didn't set the world on fire, he pitched decently enough. The Angels, OTOH, are not so patient and while they didn't rough him up, they certainly didn't have a lot of problems with him. If you go up there against Homer and think about hitting the first fastball you see wherever it's at, you may have a better chance than if you wait and see if he's throwing strikes. Obviously if he doesn't have his good command, patient hitters can light him up. But it's tough to switch from being patient one AB and impatient the next.

Ltlabner
06-20-2007, 05:00 PM
Off subject, but it's facinating that the A's players were all taking about the scouting report they recieved on Homer and how he suprised him. When's the last time a Reds player interviewed after a loss mentioned anything about a scouting report? Usually it's the usual boilerplate, "we need to work the count better" or "sometimes you have to tip your hat".

Do they even get a scouting report on the other team? If they are, I have to question it's effectiveness if almost no players even mention it in interviews.

M2
06-20-2007, 05:16 PM
Off subject, but it's facinating that the A's players were all taking about the scouting report they recieved on Homer and how he suprised him. When's the last time a Reds player interviewed after a loss mentioned anything about a scouting report? Usually it's the usual boilerplate, "we need to work the count better" or "sometimes you have to tip your hat".

Do they even get a scouting report on the other team? If they are, I have to question it's effectiveness if almost no players even mention it in interviews.

A lot of the "New Wave" clubs are big on advance scouting - Oakland, Boston, Yankees, Cleveland, Arizona, San Diego, St. Louis, Toronto. Supposedly it was the major reason why the Red Sox canned Grady Little.

RedsBaron
06-20-2007, 05:30 PM
A lot of the "New Wave" clubs are big on advance scouting - Oakland, Boston, Yankees, Cleveland, Arizona, San Diego, St. Louis, Toronto. Supposedly it was the major reason why the Red Sox canned Grady Little.

I seem to recall the Reds using advance scouting during the days of the Big Red Machine-wasn't Charlie Metro used for that purpose?

M2
06-20-2007, 05:33 PM
I seem to recall the Reds using advance scouting during the days of the Big Red Machine-wasn't Charlie Metro used for that purpose?

It wouldn't surprise me if that was the case. The Reds were an ahead-of-the-curve franchise in those days. However, I was at an age where I assumed they played the game like I did in Little League -- walk to the plate and take a big cut at the first good pitch you see.

RedsBaron
06-20-2007, 05:46 PM
It wouldn't surprise me if that was the case. The Reds were an ahead-of-the-curve franchise in those days. However, I was at an age where I assumed they played the game like I did in Little League -- walk to the plate and take a big cut at the first good pitch you see.

I ran a google search on Metro. He was a Reds scout in 1968, but spent much more time with the Royals.
Yes, once the Reds were ahead of the curve. Now the Reds are in the ditch and the other traffic is already around the curve and out of sight. :(

Chip R
06-20-2007, 05:51 PM
I seem to recall the Reds using advance scouting during the days of the Big Red Machine-wasn't Charlie Metro used for that purpose?


It was actually Ray Shore.

RedsBaron
06-20-2007, 06:32 PM
It was actually Ray Shore.

Ray Shore came after Metro. I believe Shore was the Reds advance scout in the 1970s. If I recall correctly he was quite put out with Sparky Anderson after game seven of the 1972 World Series when Sparky allowed Dave Concepcion to position himself in the field for one A's hitter the way Davey wanted, rather than the way Shore's scouting report said the shortstop should play that hitter. The A's hitter promptly singled through the hole that Concepcion should have filled, had he been where Shore's scouting report said he should be, contributing to the Reds game seven loss.

TOBTTReds
06-20-2007, 06:42 PM
A lot of the "New Wave" clubs are big on advance scouting - Oakland, Boston, Yankees, Cleveland, Arizona, San Diego, St. Louis, Toronto. Supposedly it was the major reason why the Red Sox canned Grady Little.

I'd put Milwaukee in there as the #1 team that uses advance scouting.

The OF'ers have little "cheat sheets" in there back pocket they use to position themselves.

fearofpopvol1
06-21-2007, 08:37 PM
I hate to throw cold water on this thread but we need to remember that Homer was pitching last night in a park and weather ideally suited for pitchers. His next start will be in Philly in a park and climate totally opposite Oakland's.

You should also keep in mind though that Homer pitched his first 2 games at GAB and including the game in Oakland, has yet to give up a single home run. Pretty impressive thus far.

Chip R
06-27-2007, 02:03 AM
I hate to throw cold water on this thread but we need to remember that Homer was pitching last night in a park and weather ideally suited for pitchers. His next start will be in Philly in a park and climate totally opposite Oakland's.


Just as I suspected, Homer had a bad outing tonight in conditions unlike last week. Hopefully he can bunce back from this poor start.

pedro
06-27-2007, 02:56 AM
Personally I don't think Bailey should be in the majors right now. Not that he's not talented and capable enough to perform as well or better than the rest of the Reds sorry staff, but b/c I think he should be in the minors working on his secondary pitches

Regardless, I hope that he's on the team right now because they think he's ready and not because they want an attendance boost or think he'll help them win this year. I have my doubts.

dougdirt
06-27-2007, 03:03 AM
Personally I don't think Bailey should be in the majors right now. Not that he's not talented and capable enough to perform as well or better than the rest of the Reds sorry staff, but b/c I think he should be in the minors working on his secondary pitches

Regardless, I hope that he's on the team right now because they think he's ready and not because they want an attendance boost or think he'll help them win this year. I have my doubts.

Difficult to work on your secondary pitches when more often than not you get away with them. I think he needs to take his lumps in the majors. In the minor leagues he was just better than everyone and his mistakes didn't make much of a difference. Now when he makes mistakes he will have to learn from them.

pedro
06-27-2007, 03:16 AM
Difficult to work on your secondary pitches when more often than not you get away with them. I think he needs to take his lumps in the majors. In the minor leagues he was just better than everyone and his mistakes didn't make much of a difference. Now when he makes mistakes he will have to learn from them.

Perhaps. He's competing now so it's certainly debatable.

jojo
06-27-2007, 08:29 AM
Difficult to work on your secondary pitches when more often than not you get away with them. I think he needs to take his lumps in the majors. In the minor leagues he was just better than everyone and his mistakes didn't make much of a difference. Now when he makes mistakes he will have to learn from them.

I think it's even more difficult to work on them when you don't throw them.

If the reds are going to keep him up here, then they have to force him to throw his secondary stuff (most likely someone has to force the Reds to force Homer). It boggles my mind that the Reds apparently brought him up in order to have him throw 80% fastballs. It's time to throw the results-based analysis of Homer out the window. I personally think AAA is the perfect place to work on your secondary pitches/ command. To me it doesn't matter if he can get away with a bad pitch in AAA. Coaches have eyes. It's time to forget about his counting stats and peripherals. No matter where you pitch him, all that matters is that he have a high proportion of his pitch selection comprised of offspeed stuff, his strike to ball ratio, and his pitch count. Last night was bad Homer in hyperbole so some might overreact. But considering all of his 20 innings so far, he's got some command issues.

I think it's an open question where best Homer can better develop his command/learn to pitch. But if the Reds organisation isn't pausing to consider how best to further Homer's development, then they can't be trusted with the most valuable commodity in their organisation.

Anyways, that's my rant for the morning (what a lousy night-neither Homer nor the King had a good outing). :cool:

RFS62
06-27-2007, 08:34 AM
I hate to throw cold water on this thread but we need to remember that Homer was pitching last night in a park and weather ideally suited for pitchers. His next start will be in Philly in a park and climate totally opposite Oakland's.


Slightly different outcome, eh?

SandyD
06-27-2007, 08:50 AM
I'm in the camp that wanted Bailey to have more time in Louisville ... to work on secondary pitches, to try to become more pitch efficient ... and such.

However, I'm not too concerned about ONE start like last night. It'll be interesting to see how he bounces back from that.

NJReds
06-27-2007, 09:26 AM
Philly is the same team that pounded Lincecum twice. They have some great fastball hitters on that team, and a very intimidating park.

I was in the 'keep Homer in AAA' camp as well. But I'm not going to panic based on one start.

membengal
06-27-2007, 12:33 PM
Ups and downs. Ins and outs. Par for the course for most any pitcher, and certainly for a 21-year-old rookie. Perversely enough, given the low pitch count and short inning outcome last night, I was not too displeased in the big picture of his overall season and inning counts...

Highlifeman21
06-28-2007, 09:26 AM
The kid isn't ready.

Unfortunately, he's slightly better than our other options.

I would love to see him throw 10% fastballs, 45% curves and 45% changeups, just to get repetitions, regardless of where the pitched ball may land.

He needs to be able to throw his curve and change for strikes when he wants them, and when he needs them, and I'm not convinced he can do either right now.

It's almost like a birthday or christmas present when he gets one of them over for a strike.

Always Red
06-29-2007, 12:26 PM
The kid isn't ready.

Unfortunately, he's slightly better than our other options.

I would love to see him throw 10% fastballs, 45% curves and 45% changeups, just to get repetitions, regardless of where the pitched ball may land.

He needs to be able to throw his curve and change for strikes when he wants them, and when he needs them, and I'm not convinced he can do either right now.

It's almost like a birthday or christmas present when he gets one of them over for a strike.


Well, for that matter, most major league SP's are not able to get 3 different pitches over for strikes when they need to. The really good ones can, of course. Most cannot.

10% fastballs? I'm not ready to turn Homer into a soft-tosser just yet. I understand your point, that he practice his offspeed stuff, but the FB is his money pitch at this point. When he matures and learns some more, he can use it to set up the offspeed K pitch.

He may or may not be ready, but I do believe he's one of the top 5 SP's in the organization, and thus should be right where he is. I certainly agree with you that he is very rough around the edges. I'm ready to jettison Lohse and bring in Dumatrait as well.

It's all about getting ready for 2008, from this point on.

His 98 mph fastball is not quite as advertised; more like 92 with an occasional 93. Just like McBeth's 96 mph heater is not quite that, either. I guess minor league radar guns are a little different, eh?

Aronchis
06-29-2007, 02:04 PM
Well, for that matter, most major league SP's are not able to get 3 different pitches over for strikes when they need to. The really good ones can, of course. Most cannot.

10% fastballs? I'm not ready to turn Homer into a soft-tosser just yet. I understand your point, that he practice his offspeed stuff, but the FB is his money pitch at this point. When he matures and learns some more, he can use it to set up the offspeed K pitch.

He may or may not be ready, but I do believe he's one of the top 5 SP's in the organization, and thus should be right where he is. I certainly agree with you that he is very rough around the edges. I'm ready to jettison Lohse and bring in Dumatrait as well.

It's all about getting ready for 2008, from this point on.

His 98 mph fastball is not quite as advertised; more like 92 with an occasional 93. Just like McBeth's 96 mph heater is not quite that, either. I guess minor league radar guns are a little different, eh?

Bailey rarely hit 98 last year. he was around 93-97 much more regularly(and missing high). this year he is around 91-96 missing less high(but to high). You obviously must have missed the game in Oakland. Bailey's velocity was also low to start the 2006 season in high A as well before picking it up in June. His last start in AAA he touched 97 a few times. All about command my friend. Much like Phillip's Hughes(the more developed Phillip Hughes) fastball falloff his first game with the Yankee's, command is everything.

I could care less about velocity at 21. As we have said before about past Reds prospects, they attempted to throw to hard, to soon at a uncomfortable arm slots and to many breaking balls. Bailey was plucked to soon, but he has some things going for him.

Always Red
06-29-2007, 02:10 PM
Bailey rarely hit 98 last year. he was around 93-97 much more regularly(and missing high). this year he is around 91-96 missing less high(but to high). You obviously must have missed the game in Oakland. Bailey's velocity was also low to start the 2006 season in high A as well before picking it up in June. His last start in AAA he touched 97 a few times. All about command my friend. Much like Phillip's Hughes(the more developed Phillip Hughes) fastball falloff his first game with the Yankee's, command is everything.

I could care less about velocity at 21. As we have said before about past Reds prospects, they attempted to throw to hard, to soon at a uncomfortable arm slots and to many breaking balls. Bailey was plucked to soon, but he has some things going for him.

I agree, command is everything. If Homer can't get the breaking balls over the plate, as HLM21 noted above, he won't be successful.

Just noticing that Bailey and McBeth's FB's are not quite what they were advertised to be. Maybe it's kind of like the heights that are listed in college basketball programs, subtract 2 inches (or 4 mph) for the proper measurement.

Aronchis
06-29-2007, 02:27 PM
Just noticing that Bailey and McBeth's FB's are not quite what they were advertised to be. Maybe it's kind of like the heights that are listed in college basketball programs, subtract 2 inches (or 4 mph) for the proper measurement.

Again, what makes you believe that? McBeth's fastball was never "advertised" up around 96mph, but 93-94 tops most of the time. Bailey's fastball isn't even finished developing yet. Your reaching based on faulty conclusions.

Always Red
06-29-2007, 02:41 PM
Your reaching based on faulty conclusions.

I didn't conclude anything.

I read it all here prior to their prospective arrivals; that makes it gospel truth, right?;)

Homer: http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1364054&postcount=1

Marcus: http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=57978&highlight=Marcus+McBeth


more on Homer's FB: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&id=2919034


• Scouts who have seen Reds phenom Homer Bailey since his call-up have been shocked by the lack of life on his fastball.

"I saw him in the Florida State League last year, and he was throwing 98 [mph]," said one scout. "Then I saw him in the big leagues this year, and he averaged 91-92. At 97-98, he can get by with not commanding his [off-speed] stuff. But at 91-92, when his other stuff isn't there, he's just an ordinary guy."

Aronchis
06-29-2007, 03:35 PM
That is why you don't listen to scouts;). Bailey's fastball most definitely was NOT 97-98mph during his high A stint all the time, matter of fact, there were posts on the minor league forum complaining about that last year before June.

His last start in AAA he was between 93-97. Sounds like the Reds plucked the kid just when he was getting comfortable in that level. His velocity went up during the A's game because he was gaining confidence.

I think Bailey's velocity will be between 93-97 pretty regularly if he developes the way they expect him to develope.

I will also add in Dayton time had the same complaints. He was throwing "91-93" earlier in the year while 93-97 in Augest.

You are making(much like the scouts) generalizations that don't hold water.

Falls City Beer
06-29-2007, 03:41 PM
Never ever get starry-eyed about someone who's never struck out a major league hitter.

Always Red
06-29-2007, 03:42 PM
That is why you don't listen to scouts;). Bailey's fastball most definitely was NOT 97-98mph during his high A stint all the time, matter of fact, there were posts on the minor league forum complaining about that last year before June.

His last start in AAA he was between 93-97. Sounds like the Reds plucked the kid just when he was getting comfortable in that level. His velocity went up during the A's game because he was gaining confidence.

I think Bailey's velocity will be between 93-97 pretty regularly if he developes the way they expect him to develope.

You are making(much like the scouts) generalizations that don't hold water.

Aronchis, If I don't listen to scouts, and I don't listen to RZ'ers, who do I listen to, you? ;)

I hope you're right that his FB will regain velocity as he gains confidence. Trying to throw harder usually in and of itself does not work.

mid-90's is fast enough, especially if you have other pitches you can throw for strikes, and can keep hitters off-stride.

As for generalizations, I make none. I'm simply observing that what I have read about these guys and the speed of their fastball does not match what I have seen so far.

I hope they both have outstanding careers, and I think both belong on the staff right now. WK needs to build up to 2008, and both of these guys should be an integral part of that.

flyer85
06-29-2007, 03:43 PM
The fact that his fastball velocity may be a little less doesn't bother me. What does bother a little is that his command with it is inconsistent and what bothers a lot is that his curveball has not had any snap, it is a rolling curve and very hittable unless it as at the bottom of the strike zone.

Falls City Beer
06-29-2007, 03:52 PM
The fact that his fastball velocity may be a little less doesn't bother me. What does bother a little is that his command with it is inconsistent and what bothers a lot is that his curveball has not had any snap, it is a rolling curve and very hittable unless it as at the bottom of the strike zone.

I already knew he had command issues. Losing mileage on his only good pitch is really bad.

Matt700wlw
06-29-2007, 03:59 PM
He's hit 97-98 last year....but he didn't do it all the time.

Walks aside, his first 3 starts, he was getting some giddy-up on his fastball....95ish, even 96....he got by, he survived.

The other day, he wasn't getting much giddy-up on anything...result..he got battered.

flyer85
06-29-2007, 04:10 PM
I already knew he had command issues. His AAA numbers certainly suggested that. There was anecdotal evidence that his curve ball was a plus pitch. I have seen no evidence of that to this point. It is a rolling pitch without the late snap a good curve has.

OnBaseMachine
06-29-2007, 06:49 PM
I saw Bailey hit 95-96 numerous times against the A's. That scout must have been watching a different Homer Bailey than I was.

Highlifeman21
06-29-2007, 07:30 PM
I saw Bailey hit 95-96 numerous times against the A's. That scout must have been watching a different Homer Bailey than I was.

I never take much stock in MPH numbers I see on TV or on ballpark scoreboards.

If a scout is sitting behind HP with a radar gun, I'm gonna believe that number.

Chip R
06-29-2007, 07:31 PM
I believe Homer's going to pitch Sunday. It's going to be a good test for him. While this StL team may not be the same team that dismantled S.D., edged the Mets and wiped out the Tigers last October, they have Pujols and Rolen and some other guys who can hurt you. There probably aren't very many teams who are going to break down Homer's past performances and put them into a scouting report like the Cards. They aren't going to go up there and swing at everything in the 513 area code. They are going to have a plan and an idea how to hit against him.

Aronchis
06-29-2007, 07:53 PM
I never take much stock in MPH numbers I see on TV or on ballpark scoreboards.

If a scout is sitting behind HP with a radar gun, I'm gonna believe that number.

Uh, that scout didn't "gun" Homer at the A's game.

jojo
06-29-2007, 08:57 PM
I saw Bailey hit 95-96 numerous times against the A's. That scout must have been watching a different Homer Bailey than I was.

Here's what Bailey's velocity and pitch selection looked like against the As:

%FB = 75;

Fastball:
ave: 91 +/- 1.4 mph; range: 87-94 mph (only 1 pitch at 94 and only 1 pitch at 87)

Offspeed:
ave: 79 +/- 2.3 mph; range: 76-82 mph;

Speeds were recorded at 55 feet from the plate.

OnBaseMachine
06-29-2007, 09:33 PM
I must have watched a different game because Bailey hit 96 at times during that game. Maybe the radar was wrong or something, but I saw 96 flash on the TV. Anyway, I'm not concerned about Homer Bailey. He was rushed to the majors, so I expect him to struggle. He's still going to be an ACE down the road for this team. Maybe not next year but definitely by 2009.