PDA

View Full Version : Stubbs (scout comment at Midwest League All-star Game)



RedLegsToday
06-21-2007, 03:30 PM
This is from Kevin Goldstein's article about the All-star Game.

The eighth overall pick in the draft last year, despite many teams having major concerns about his strikeout rate, Stubbs is batting just .253/.348/.369 with 73 whiffs in 249 at-bats. “I mean, you just look at him, and that’s a Rocco Baldelli body,” lamented one scout. “But he just has no bat speed.”

traderumor
06-21-2007, 03:35 PM
Nothing a few supplements couldn't fix :p:

Red Leader
06-21-2007, 03:43 PM
I'm going to the Dragon's game tonight and have seats right behind the plate, so I'll get a good look at Stubbs, but having seen him a couple times already, I'm inclined to agree with that scout's take. Of course the last time I saw Stubbs play, he was facing a guy that was topping out at 85-86 and he hit the ball well. Hopefully West Michigan has someone going tonight that can bring the heat. I'd like to see him face someone that throws 93-94 so I can make a better judgement.

OesterPoster
06-21-2007, 05:14 PM
Hopefully West Michigan has someone going tonight that can bring the heat. I'd like to see him face someone that throws 93-94 so I can make a better judgement.

Well, it won't be Chris Cody, and he was the ace of the White Caps' staff. He gave Stubbs fits the last time they faced off.


Five Whitecaps on the Move; Cody, Rainwater, Castro Sent to Lakeland

June 20th, 2007

COMSTOCK PARK, MI — The West Michigan Whitecaps, in conjunction with the Detroit Tigers, announced today a flurry of roster moves to begin the second half of the Midwest League season. LHP Chris Cody, RHP Josh Rainwater and RHP Angel Castro were transferred to Single-A Lakeland while RHP Jose Fragoso was sent to short-season Oneonta and catcher Jeff Kunkel moves to the disabled list.

Filling the void in the Whitecaps roster will be RHP Matt O’Brien, LHP Ramon Garcia, RHP Derek Witt and LHP Zach Piccola. O’Brien and Witt spent the first half of the season with Lakeland while Garcia and Piccola were sent from extended spring training.

Cody emerged as one of the top pitchers in the Midwest League with his 1.77 ERA while leading the league in the first half in strikeouts (92) and innings pitched (91.1). He was recently named to the MWL All-Star team.

Rainwater put things together in his third stint at West Michigan, posting a 7-2 record with 2.32 ERA while switching between a reliever and starter making four starts and 12 appearances out of the bullpen.

Castro made the jump from the Dominican Summer League to the Midwest League and became one of the Whitecaps’ most reliable starters, going 7-4 with a 3.01 ERA in 12 starts. Fragoso spent a brief time with the Whitecaps after being called up when RHP Phil Napolitan landed on the DL. In just six games, Fragoso went 0-2 with a 7.82 ERA in 12.2 innings.

Kunkel is the first position player for the Whitecaps to lose this season as he heads to the DL retroactive to June 11. The former Michigan Wolverine hit .230 with two doubles, four RBIs and six runs scored in 29 games this season.

O’Brien returns to West Michigan after going 0-3 with a 7.59 ERA in seven games (six starts) at Lakeland. He spent the tail end of the 2006 season with the Whitecaps, going 3-1 with a 2.25 ERA including a start and win in the playoffs.

Witt is making his first appearance on a Whitecaps roster after being sent from Lakeland. He went 1-0 with a 4.17 ERA in 21 games out of the bullpen this season with the Flying Tigers.

Garcia returns to the Whitecaps almost a year after his stellar 2006 season was cut short due to a shoulder injury that forced him to miss the rest of the season. The southpaw from Yamasa, D.R. went on the D.L. last year on June 28 and had surgery in the offseason to repair a bone spur in his left shoulder. Garcia was 7-2 with a 1.92 ERA, including two complete game shutouts in his 12 games with West Michigan and was selected as one of the Whitecaps three Midwest League All-Stars in 2006 before being shut down for the season.

Piccola is in his second year of professional baseball and will be reunited with Whitecaps Manager Tom Brookens after pitching for him in Oneonta last year. The ninth round pick by the Tigers in 2006 went 1-7 with a 4.04 ERA in 14 appearances (13 starts) in 62.1 innings pitched with Oneonta. He is making his first appearance on a Whitecaps roster.

The Whitecaps active roster remains at 24 with one player on the disabled list.

Rojo
06-21-2007, 05:19 PM
“But he just has no bat speed.”

He and Dane Sardina should start a pillow-fight league.

DoogMinAmo
06-21-2007, 05:24 PM
I wonder if this can be attributed in any part to his foot injury. I am sure it is hard to generate bat speed if you can't get your legs into your swing.

HokieRed
06-21-2007, 05:32 PM
It's amazing that a front office would pick a first-round choice deficient in such an obvious thing as bat speed.

Red Leader
06-21-2007, 05:34 PM
I wonder if this can be attributed in any part to his foot injury. I am sure it is hard to generate bat speed if you can't get your legs into your swing.

IIRC, he's got turf toe. That's a lot different than "foot problems" and "getting your legs into your swing." While turf toe can be painful, really painful, I doubt that's what is causing his lack of bat speed.

Aronchis
06-21-2007, 06:38 PM
It's amazing that a front office would pick a first-round choice deficient in such an obvious thing as bat speed.

You aren't getting it. Stubbs's struggle I bet was completely expected from the FO, matter of fact, if it didn't happen, they would be outright shocked.

He wasn't drafted for his bat. Something you will have to come to grips with.

BRM
06-21-2007, 06:41 PM
He wasn't drafted for his bat. Something you will have to come to grips with.

He was drafted to be the next Damon Buford.

CrackerJack
06-21-2007, 07:18 PM
Just a terrible pick any way you look at it. OF defense can't be "that" hard to find, that you spend a top 10 pick on it alone.

Krivsky's competence becomes more questionable every passing day.

HokieRed
06-21-2007, 10:04 PM
Overlooking something as fundamental as bat speed is not acceptable. Of course the Reds have done this before. I saw Mark Schramek quite a bit in the minors and I'd say that was his basic problem too, simple inability to catch up to fastballs above the middle 80's. Stubbs' defense can be the greatest in the world but he cannot play without some minimal level of bat speed.

RedEye
06-21-2007, 10:08 PM
You aren't getting it. Stubbs's struggle I bet was completely expected from the FO, matter of fact, if it didn't happen, they would be outright shocked.

He wasn't drafted for his bat. Something you will have to come to grips with.

Strange thing to me is that Stubbs wasn't supposed to be a reach at the #8 spot. Every predraft analysis I read had him as a consensus first-rounder, and probably as a top-10 or top-15 talent. I can't believe that he would make it that high if he was perceived as lacking bat speed.

He wasn't drafted for his bat, agreed. But I have to believe they expected him to hit better than this!

corkedbat
06-21-2007, 10:51 PM
A high first round pick with even average bat speed is pitiful. Slow? :bang::bang::bang:

I thought he just had some issues making contact at times. If bat speed is an issue, I want to change my Bust or Not Poll answer to Bust

Chi-Town Red
06-21-2007, 11:03 PM
I'm going to the Dragon's game tonight and have seats right behind the plate, so I'll get a good look at Stubbs, but having seen him a couple times already, I'm inclined to agree with that scout's take. Of course the last time I saw Stubbs play, he was facing a guy that was topping out at 85-86 and he hit the ball well. Hopefully West Michigan has someone going tonight that can bring the heat. I'd like to see him face someone that throws 93-94 so I can make a better judgement. Let us know how he did please!!:)

edabbs44
06-21-2007, 11:04 PM
Sweet...Stubbs will end up in the Gruler Bin along with Chris, Howington and Szymanski.

AmarilloRed
06-21-2007, 11:34 PM
Unfortunately, it seems like Stubbs will simply be another 1st-round bust for the Reds.

IslandRed
06-21-2007, 11:46 PM
Strange thing to me is that Stubbs wasn't supposed to be a reach at the #8 spot. Every predraft analysis I read had him as a consensus first-rounder, and probably as a top-10 or top-15 talent. I can't believe that he would make it that high if he was perceived as lacking bat speed.

That's what I remember, too. His ability to make contact was questioned, but it wasn't as stark as "can't hit a decent fastball." He's a good athlete, not weak at all. Have to figure it's something in his swing mechanics.

KoryMac5
06-21-2007, 11:58 PM
lamented one scout

Nothing like an annonymous source to get the natives restless.

flyer85
06-22-2007, 12:00 AM
Nothing like an annonymous source to get the natives restless.no anonymous source is needed, his stats do it all by them self.

gonelong
06-22-2007, 12:52 AM
I'm going to the Dragon's game tonight and have seats right behind the plate, so I'll get a good look at Stubbs ...

I have seen him 3 times now and have been completely and thoroughly unimpressed each time. If I had to make my call today, I'd be suprised if he makes a splash in AAA much less ever becomes an everyday OF in the bigs.

GL

BuckeyeRedleg
06-22-2007, 01:04 AM
Fine. Let's move on.

That way, we can be pleasantly surprised if he ever helps the big club.

You never know, two years from now he might be able to help out, much like Mike Frank once did.

UC_Ken
06-22-2007, 01:37 AM
Stubbs was a bad pick but prior to him they drafted Bruce and Bailey. Every team in baseball would sign up for that 2 of 3 success rate.

reds44
06-22-2007, 01:47 AM
Stubbs was a bad pick but prior to him they drafted Bruce and Bailey. Every team in baseball would sign up for that 2 of 3 success rate.
However Bruce and Bailey were picked by O'Brien, while Stubbs was Krivsky first draft pick.

BoydsOfSummer
06-22-2007, 02:01 AM
Somebody get him a lighter bat.

Aronchis
06-22-2007, 02:14 AM
Somebody get him a lighter bat.

and a shorter swing.

fargo55
06-22-2007, 03:06 AM
Somebody get him a lighter bat.

Watched him in the Texas Collegiate League ( is that an oxymoron?). With the metal bat he was a .300 hitter at UT. The wood bat brought his avg. down a bit but, dropped his slugging percentage significantly. That was the 2004 season and he has grown into his body now. I still believe he will be a good MLB outfielder, not an all-star, but good.

smith288
06-22-2007, 09:59 AM
and a shorter swing.
and a slower pitch...

Red Leader
06-22-2007, 10:00 AM
Let us know how he did please!!:)


That's what I remember, too. His ability to make contact was questioned, but it wasn't as stark as "can't hit a decent fastball." He's a good athlete, not weak at all. Have to figure it's something in his swing mechanics.

Ok, I watched Stubbs last night from the 2nd row behind the plate w/ nobody in the front row. I don't think the bat speed is an issue. First inning he jerked a 91mph fastball to LF. Unfortunately it was right at the LF, but it was hit hard and he turned on it pretty quickly. I'm not saying he has the fastest bat in the world, but it's certainly not "slow."

That still leaves "the problem." I see his problem as being two-fold. One, is his swing mechanics. I noticed he was dropping his hands a little at the back of his swing. This made his swing long, and that needs to be corrected ASAP. You can "get by" with minor mechanical flaws in Single A. You're a .180 hitter in AA with the same problem. The other problem I see is more concerning, to me at least. It appeared to me that Stubbs has absolutely no clue as to what pitchers are trying to do to him.

1st AB: First pitch, fastball, taken, ball, outside. Second pitch, fastball, strike, lower outside corner. Third pitch, mistake pitch, fastball, right down broadway. Stubbs turned on it and lined it to the LFer. He swung at the best pitch in the AB.

2nd AB: First pitch, fastball, strike looking, lower outside corner. Second pitch, curveball, middle-in. Third pitch, fastball, strike looking, middle-outside. He looked like he was looking breaking ball all the way and didn't even move when he got a fastball.

3rd AB: First pitch, fastball, strike looking, lower outside corner. Second pitch, foul ball, curve, middle-in. Third pitch, fastball, outside corner, ball (barely missed). Fourth pitch, curveball, middle-in, ground ball out.

This sequence repeated itself over and over again with him basically seeing the same pitches at the same times in each at bat. He went 0-3 with 2 BB's and 1 K in the game and didn't hit the ball hard in any AB. If you look at those 3 AB's above you'll notice that he got basically the same pitches in the same counts, in the same general locations in each AB. If the pitcher would have done that to a smart hitter, the hitter would have been waiting on those pitches starting in the 2nd AB. Stubbs was still just as clueless in the 3rd AB, acting like he wasn't sure which pitch was coming.

So, I don't think it's bat speed so much as it is just general hitting smartness. I'm not sure if they watch video at that level or not, but someone should point it out to him that he saw the same pitches in 3 straight AB's and did nothing with any of the pitches (w/ the exception of the 1st AB line out). That shouldn't happen.


Other thoughts on the game last night:

1) I love Chris Heisey. He's just a grind it out gamer. I'm sure Wayne loves him as well. Chris can absolutely motor around the bases and he's a smart baserunner. Gets good jumps, knows when to risk and when not to, etc. Chris went 4-4 last night. I don't see him having an All-Star ceiling, but I could see him being a fan favorite in the Ryan Freel mold if he gets to the big league team.

2) Juan Francisco. Dear God. He didn't start the game, but came up as a PH in the 9th. Dude has Ryan Howard power and I'm not joking. I was watching Stubbs' bat speed all night and then this kid came up. I can't remember too many players having the bat speed Francisco has. He absolutely crushed a 93 mph fastball on the inside half. It went a good 420 feet. Absolute blast.

3) Justin Turner. Like Heisey, I like Turner. He's not flashy, but he makes plays. He had one AB last night that wasn't a good one, struck out on a check swing on a high fastball and the guy behind me said "It's been awhile since I've seen Turner have a bad AB." I believe that.

4) Valaika. Another good offensive player and he made several good plays at SS. There weren't any balls hit to show me what kind of range he has but he did well charging the ball on a slow chopper and also made a great short hop play and throw going to his glove side. Looked good at the plate as per usual.

5) Jordan Smith. Wasn't that impressed. Maybe it was an off night for him. He can run the fastball up to 94, but mostly sits around 88-89. His slider was hitting the same speed all night, 82. He got behind hitters last night and fed them fastballs that were promptly destroyed.

6) Pedro Viola. This kid has good stuff with movement. He's only hitting low 90's, but his fastball has real good late movement.

7) Mateo and Terrell Young: Both throw very hard, mid 90's, but both throw pretty straight and don't have very good offspeed stuff to keep hitters honest. I'm surprised they don't get hit hard pretty much all the time. Just wait for the fastball and hit it.

bucksfan2
06-22-2007, 10:42 AM
I have a question for people who have seen Francisco and Valaika play. Do you think sometime in the near future Francisco moves to first Valaika moves to 2b or 3b? It seems like now is the time to move them. 1b isn't the most difficult position to play but it does take some work in order to become a good first baseman.

redsmetz
06-22-2007, 10:46 AM
1st AB: First pitch, fastball, taken, ball, outside. Second pitch, fastball, strike, lower outside corner. Third pitch, mistake pitch, fastball, right down broadway. Stubbs turned on it and lined it to the LFer. He swung at the best pitch in the AB.

2nd AB: First pitch, fastball, strike looking, lower outside corner. Second pitch, curveball, middle-in. Third pitch, fastball, strike looking, middle-outside. He looked like he was looking breaking ball all the way and didn't even move when he got a fastball.

3rd AB: First pitch, fastball, strike looking, lower outside corner. Second pitch, foul ball, curve, middle-in. Third pitch, fastball, outside corner, ball (barely missed). Fourth pitch, curveball, middle-in, ground ball out.

I'm not a baseball guy, but am I wrong to say a smart hitter would have put either of the two highlighted pitches the opposite way for a base hit? I don't know if there were runners on that might have effected this, but those seem like pitches you want to put in play to the opposite field.

OesterPoster
06-22-2007, 10:52 AM
1) I love Chris Heisey. He's just a grind it out gamer. I'm sure Wayne loves him as well.

FWIW, Krivsky was at the game last night, and he'll be in Dayton for the entire weekend series.

I love sitting behind home plate at 5/3. Depending on who is pitching, you can gather some info from the various scouts who sit amongst those first few rows. And you don't have to worry about the wicked line drives like you do near the dugout seats. I'll be behind the plate a few rows up for Sunday's game...and I hope to see Carson Kainer in the lineup. :thumbup:

Red Leader
06-22-2007, 10:56 AM
I'm not a baseball guy, but am I wrong to say a smart hitter would have put either of the two highlighted pitches the opposite way for a base hit? I don't know if there were runners on that might have effected this, but those seem like pitches you want to put in play to the opposite field.

I'm not opposed to a hitter being patient at the plate and taking a couple pitches but when the pitcher leads off each of your AB's with the same pitch each time, you should be looking for it by the 3rd AB. There were no runners on in the 2nd AB. There were 2 runners on (1st/3rd) in the 3rd AB. He should have rocked that first pitch fastball to the opposite field in the 3rd AB. He watched it, and eventually grounded out to end the inning.

BuckeyeRedleg
06-22-2007, 10:58 AM
Thanks for the report, Red Leader. Great stuff.

Red Leader
06-22-2007, 11:03 AM
FWIW, Krivsky was at the game last night, and he'll be in Dayton for the entire weekend series.

I love sitting behind home plate at 5/3. Depending on who is pitching, you can gather some info from the various scouts who sit amongst those first few rows. And you don't have to worry about the wicked line drives like you do near the dugout seats. I'll be behind the plate a few rows up for Sunday's game...and I hope to see Carson Kainer in the lineup. :thumbup:

Saw the Krivsky was in town on the news last night. We got there real early - like when the gates opened, but didn't see Wayne, Freel take batting practice (which I later learned he did), or Bray throwing (which I also later learned he did). They must have been out early.

There were a BUNCH of scouts at the game last night. More than I remember seeing. Not much action in the early innings, but almost all of them sat up in their seats and pulled out their guns when Pedro Viola came into the game.

Benihana
06-22-2007, 11:03 AM
I have a question for people who have seen Francisco and Valaika play. Do you think sometime in the near future Francisco moves to first Valaika moves to 2b or 3b? It seems like now is the time to move them. 1b isn't the most difficult position to play but it does take some work in order to become a good first baseman.

I would agree. I'd like to see Valaika at 2B, and I'd imagine Francisco becomes either a 1B or a corner OF. I'd also like to see Valaika at least get promoted to Sarasota in the very near future.

Red Leader
06-22-2007, 11:13 AM
I would agree. I'd like to see Valaika at 2B, and I'd imagine Francisco becomes either a 1B or a corner OF. I'd also like to see Valaika at least get promoted to Sarasota in the very near future.

Like I said above there weren't many plays in last night's game that allowed me to see Valaika's range. What was hit to him, he got to, and looked good at SS. I don't know if he can stay there or not. If he can, he'll be a very good hitter for a SS once he gets to the majors. I can see him being a 5 hole hitter in the majors. If they were to move him, I'd rather they move him to 2B, than 3B. He's definitely going to have a plus arm at 2B and I think he can play there at the major league level.

I didn't get to see Francisco play in the field last night, only PH, but his power would play anywhere, IMO.

HokieRed
06-22-2007, 01:59 PM
Redsmetz,
Haven't seen Stubbs so am hesitant about this, but it could be that Stubbs doesn't hit those balls the opposite way because that requires bat speed--hand speed--more, in fact, than jerking the ball to left field, which can be accomplished by opening up very quickly (a compensatory move if bat speed is the problem).

Red Leader
06-22-2007, 02:27 PM
Redsmetz,
Haven't seen Stubbs so am hesitant about this, but it could be that Stubbs doesn't hit those balls the opposite way because that requires bat speed--hand speed--more, in fact, than jerking the ball to left field, which can be accomplished by opening up very quickly (a compensatory move if bat speed is the problem).

Excellent point.

Last night Valaika hit a fastball, opposite field shot out to RCF for a HR. It was a middle-out pitch that required good hand speed to center the ball and drive it.

Stubbs hit all balls to the left side. One was a line drive to LF that he hit solid. The next was a ground ball to the SS, hit rather weakly. The third was a ground ball to the right side he got jammed on. It could have been that he was just opening up with the lead foot allowing the bat to get through on the balls he pulled. I couldn't see his front leg very well as I was directly behind him and had the umpire blocking him as well so I don't know if he was opening up early to pull the ball. Wish I could go back and see those AB's again to see if that was the case.

IslandRed
06-22-2007, 03:21 PM
I'm not a baseball guy, but am I wrong to say a smart hitter would have put either of the two highlighted pitches the opposite way for a base hit? I don't know if there were runners on that might have effected this, but those seem like pitches you want to put in play to the opposite field.

Some hitters, maybe. But what Red Leader described -- low, outside corner -- is the textbook perfectly-located fastball. If it was a two-strike count, sure, just go with the pitch and try for the opposite-field base hit. But with an 0-0 count, why swing at the pitcher's pitch?

M2
06-22-2007, 04:04 PM
You aren't getting it. Stubbs's struggle I bet was completely expected from the FO, matter of fact, if it didn't happen, they would be outright shocked.

He wasn't drafted for his bat. Something you will have to come to grips with.

Any OF not drafted for his bat is a lousy pick. If the Reds expected Stubbs to struggle like this at the plate in low A they deserve a flogging for having picked him.

dfs
06-22-2007, 04:56 PM
Any OF not drafted for his bat is a lousy pick.
Right. If Stubbs is the reincarnation of 1999 Mike Cameron he's still valueless if he can't contribute at the plate.

heck these day's folks expect shortstops and catchers to contribute SOMETHING with the bat. The notion that a fly catcher can make up value with the leather is kind of quaint.

dougdirt
06-22-2007, 06:24 PM
Right. If Stubbs is the reincarnation of 1999 Mike Cameron he's still valueless if he can't contribute at the plate.

heck these day's folks expect shortstops and catchers to contribute SOMETHING with the bat. The notion that a fly catcher can make up value with the leather is kind of quaint.

Except the whole idea that the average centerfielder posts a .740 OPS. So a guy who posts a .700 OPS and is one of the best defenders in baseball is definatly worth something.

traderumor
06-22-2007, 06:49 PM
Moral of the story: Be wary of one man's opinion, as in "slow bat ['baccer spit]"

M2
06-22-2007, 08:42 PM
Except the whole idea that the average centerfielder posts a .740 OPS. So a guy who posts a .700 OPS and is one of the best defenders in baseball is definatly worth something.

It's definitely not worth a first round pick. If Mike Cameron's the model (and I'm fall for finding a new Mike Cameron), he's got a career .787 OPS and his cumulative OPS since 1999 is over .800, playing in some of the best pitcher's parks in baseball along the way.

An CF with a superior glove and a .700 OPS is Ruben Rivera (career .700 OPS as fate would have it). In other words, it's a 5th OF, a journeyman. Reds fans got to see Rivera best season in 2001 and no one's ever waxed poetic about it.

Heck, with a .700 OPS you're not even Chris Singleton or Corey Patterson. You've got to do better with a first round pick, especially a #8 overall pick.

Mind you, with a .714 OPS in low A coming out of the Big 12, Stubbs would need to improve a lot to OPS .700 in the majors. Rivera and Patterson were in .950 territory at the same level.

Chi-Town Red
06-22-2007, 09:13 PM
Thanks for the report RED LEADER..looking forward to hearing more..:thumbup:

hebroncougar
06-23-2007, 12:09 AM
You aren't getting it. Stubbs's struggle I bet was completely expected from the FO, matter of fact, if it didn't happen, they would be outright shocked.

He wasn't drafted for his bat. Something you will have to come to grips with.


If he wasn't drafted for his bat, then he sure as heck had no business going #8 overall. If you're drafted that high, you'd better be able to hit and field.

fearofpopvol1
06-24-2007, 01:40 AM
I really wonder what Krivsky and the scouts saw in him. I've gotta believe this was the worst 1st round pick for the Reds in years.

pahster
06-24-2007, 02:01 AM
I really wonder what Krivsky and the scouts saw in him. I've gotta believe this was the worst 1st round pick for the Reds in years.

2000 - David Espinosa
2001 - Jeremy Sowers (because of the lack of intent to sign him)
2002 - Chris Grueler

Stubbs may never be more than a 4th OF, but thats better than any pick from these three years.

reds44
06-24-2007, 02:50 AM
I really wonder what Krivsky and the scouts saw in him. I've gotta believe this was the worst 1st round pick for the Reds in years.
Can we see what actually happens ot him before we start calling him a bust? I'm not willing to give up a guy who just completed his first year in the system. If Stubbs ever makes it to the majors it will make him better then alot of first round picks. With his glove, there is a better chance then not he makes it to the majors. I don't think he was a good pick, but he's not one of the worst in years.

Ravenlord
06-24-2007, 02:55 AM
his physical attributes remind me of a right handed hitting Reggie Taylor. his stats, outside of his walk rate, remind me of Taylor as well.

KittyDuran
06-24-2007, 11:24 AM
2000 - David Espinosa
2001 - Jeremy Sowers (because of the lack of intent to sign him)
2002 - Chris Grueler

Stubbs may never be more than a 4th OF, but thats better than any pick from these three years.Funny, I was thinking about comparing Stubbs (in a way) with Espinosa. Espinosa (IIRC) along with Mosley and Sardina (sp?) bypassed Billings and went to Dayton/Stockton (High A team at the time). David was also on a good team in Dayton (2001). I don't remember David struggling so much at the plate (he didn't blow me away - but that was the year of the sluggers - Peters, Ruiz, Pena) but at SS he was an adventure. Is he still with the Detroit organization and converted to OF?

fearofpopvol1
06-24-2007, 12:34 PM
Can we see what actually happens ot him before we start calling him a bust? I'm not willing to give up a guy who just completed his first year in the system. If Stubbs ever makes it to the majors it will make him better then alot of first round picks. With his glove, there is a better chance then not he makes it to the majors. I don't think he was a good pick, but he's not one of the worst in years.

I didn't say he was going to be a bust. I'm rooting for the guy. However, up until this point (especially when you consider where he was picked and his age), he has not played to the level that the organization had expected he would. There is a difference.

pahster
06-24-2007, 01:26 PM
Funny, I was thinking about comparing Stubbs (in a way) with Espinosa. Espinosa (IIRC) along with Mosley and Sardina (sp?) bypassed Billings and went to Dayton/Stockton (High A team at the time). David was also on a good team in Dayton (2001). I don't remember David struggling so much at the plate (he didn't blow me away - but that was the year of the sluggers - Peters, Ruiz, Pena) but at SS he was an adventure. Is he still with the Detroit organization and converted to OF?

Espinosa is with AAA Toledo right now and putting up a sterling .540 OPS as an OF.

Not counting 2007, here's Espinosa's career minor league line - .261/.357/.409/.766

That'd be ok if he were playing great defense at SS, but of course, he's not. I give Stubbs a dubious nod over Espinosa because he, by all accounts I've been exposed to, actually plays good defense at a key position.

Espinosa, has, though, put up an OPS above .800 in AAA once (last year).

HokieRed
06-24-2007, 03:15 PM
Sometimes guys "make it" too because they've been chosen in the high rounds--in other words, the rep. of their FO's is at stake. We don't want that to happen in this case. I'm absolutely rooting for the guy. A combination of power and defensive ability is not easy to come by. Let's just hope he can learn to make more and harder contact.

AmarilloRed
06-25-2007, 01:56 AM
There are high expectations of players selected in the 1st round of the amateur draft. Drew Stubbs still has time to prove his doubters wrong, but people will keep whispering bust unless he shows some progress.

New Fever
06-25-2007, 03:49 PM
From Baseball Prospectus Chat Today:

Daniel (Cincinnati, OH): Should Reds fans start to be worried about Drew Stubbs. I know he's never going to hit a lot better than the .247 clip that he's hitting right now for Dayton, but the .363 slugging percentage has got to raise some eyebrows, doesn't it?

Kevin Goldstein: Yeah, that's the thing, you really nailed it there -- if he's not going to hit for much of an average (and he's not), were back to secondary skills, and he's not hitting enough to tap into his power. It's not going well by any measurement. Cheer up though, lots of good talent on that Dayton team. Just a TON of it.

Benihana
06-25-2007, 04:12 PM
From Baseball Prospectus Chat Today:

Cheer up though, lots of good talent on that Dayton team. Just a TON of it.

Valaika, Francisco, Gonzalez

Who else could he be referring to? Justin Turner?

Red Leader
06-25-2007, 04:39 PM
Valaika, Francisco, Gonzalez

Who else could he be referring to? Justin Turner?

Valaika, Francisco, Gonzalez, and Turner are the main guys. Watson just left. All 5 of those guys should be starting major leaguers at some point. That's a big statement for a Low A team.

Besides those guys: Heisey, Parker, Terrell Young, Webb, Mateo, and Viola all have a lot of talent and could be impact players. Jordan Smith could join that list, too, as he throws hard - seems to just need more experience and more time developing his stuff. Stubbs is talented, too, make no mistake about that.

New Fever
06-25-2007, 04:41 PM
Watson, Jordan Smith, and the relief guys. Watson was still on the team at the all-star game.

Redman15
06-25-2007, 04:46 PM
Yes,Turner,Heisey,Phipps,Parker,Rodriguez and Kainer. They are all pretty solid minor leaguers.

Aronchis
06-25-2007, 04:51 PM
I don't see the talent others do out of the 2006 crop.
1.Stubbs looks like a flop
2.The Smith,Webb,Heisey,Parker fluff have done little to impress
3.Ravin is to young to have a impression
4.Valakia/Turner look very ordinary. Good BA, poor walk total. I suspect they may struggle more up the ladder.

The frontrunners out of this group are Watson and Roenicke who both have shown power arms and are moving. Roenicke maybe ready by next season and Watson's development could explode next year as he continues to pile up the innings.

Hopefully some others rise. The bats look poor, the arms show more promise. I guess that may be the good thing about the 2006 draft so far. Ravin developing next year would be even better.

Benihana
06-25-2007, 05:01 PM
I don't see the talent others do out of the 2006 crop.


Why does this surprise no one? ;)

Watson and Roenicke look very strong so far. Ravin is very young and raw, but either he or Gonzalez are the favorites to be the next HS hurler the Reds develop now that Homer has broken the curse.

RedsManRick
06-25-2007, 06:08 PM
Regarding the Stubbs/Cameron comparisons:

When Cameron was 22, he was putting up .249/.355/.429 in AA. At 23, he put up .300/.402/.600 in AA. At 24 he put in 30 games at AAA (.275/.378/.533). He's been in the majors since.

At 22, Stubbs is putting up .248/.345/.361.... in Low A. The guy is 2 developmental levels behind Cameron. He either needs to put the bat on the ball a lot more (something I'm not sure is possible) or develop massive power.

This year is important, but next year will be the real marker. Either he turns the corner, or he gains bust status.

rdiersin
06-26-2007, 11:53 AM
I don't see the talent others do out of the 2006 crop.
1.Stubbs looks like a flop
2.The Smith,Webb,Heisey,Parker fluff have done little to impress
3.Ravin is to young to have a impression
4.Valakia/Turner look very ordinary. Good BA, poor walk total. I suspect they may struggle more up the ladder.

The frontrunners out of this group are Watson and Roenicke who both have shown power arms and are moving. Roenicke maybe ready by next season and Watson's development could explode next year as he continues to pile up the innings.

Hopefully some others rise. The bats look poor, the arms show more promise. I guess that may be the good thing about the 2006 draft so far. Ravin developing next year would be even better.

I tend to agree with that and that's not to mention that Watson has given up home runs at a decent rate in low A. Not exactly what one would expect given his other numbers. It will be interesting to see what comes of that as he moves up the ladder.

Kc61
06-26-2007, 04:37 PM
Dayton is losing 13 to 3 today. Stubbs is hitless in 3 trips.

I'm starting to wonder what's going on with this guy. Is that injury acting up? He hasn't had a good hitting game in -- how long?

Red Leader
06-26-2007, 04:47 PM
Their whole team is in a funk at the moment. Gonzalez lost his start the other night and they're going to be headed for 0-6 or 0-7 in the second half.

Having said that, it seems like it's been awhile since Stubbs has had a good game at the plate.

BRM
06-26-2007, 04:51 PM
He went 2-4 with a double on June 22nd.

His numbers for the month of June are dismal. He has a line of .182/.267/.208. A .475 OPS for the month.

flyer85
06-26-2007, 05:12 PM
He went 2-4 with a double on June 22nd.

His numbers for the month of June are dismal. He has a line of .182/.267/.208. A .475 OPS for the month.don't forget the Gold Glove defense. :D

15fan
06-26-2007, 05:17 PM
Having said that, it seems like it's been awhile since Stubbs has had a good game at the plate.

Drew's 2007 YTD Stats (http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Drew%2520Stubbs&pos=OF&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=453211)

1 extra base hit in the last 10 games (43 ABs)

15 Ks and 5 BBs over that same stretch.

His YTD splits are really disconcerting. He's absolutely atrocious with runners on and / or in scoring position.

John Oliver, Ty Howington, and Chris Gruler look like they're about to have a 4th for cards.

DTCromer
06-26-2007, 05:51 PM
What I am gathering from this thread is that Stubbs was WK's only pick in the draft last year.

Red Leader
06-26-2007, 05:57 PM
What I am gathering from this thread is that Stubbs was WK's only pick in the draft last year.

No, there were many other very good picks from last year's draft, we just totally whiffed on the biggest and most expensive of them all.

That's the feeling I'm getting.

Aronchis
06-26-2007, 08:04 PM
No, there were many other very good picks from last year's draft, we just totally whiffed on the biggest and most expensive of them all.

That's the feeling I'm getting.

Yes, teams never miss on first round picks.

I bet Beane is still crying over missing on Brad Sulliven in the 2003 draft;)

jojo
06-26-2007, 08:16 PM
No, there were many other very good picks from last year's draft, we just totally whiffed on the biggest and most expensive of them all.

That's the feeling I'm getting.

It doesn't help that they passed on Linceum to take Stubbs....

HokieRed
06-26-2007, 09:19 PM
O'Brien: Bailey, Bruce
Krivsky: Stubbs

Says a lot

camisadelgolf
06-27-2007, 08:04 AM
Dan O'Brien is obv. a better drafter than Wayne Krivsky. Just look at 2005, when DanO selected Jay Bruce. In the second and third rounds, DanO selected Travis Wood and Zach Ward, respectively. The year before, he brilliantly decided on B.J. Szymanski and Craig Tatum. Compare that to Wayne's terrible choices of Sean Watson and Chris Valaika.

Sarcasm aside, I think that ten years from now, people will be able to compare the 2006 draft with DanO's drafts and decide that the 2006 draft is the best of the three, regardless of whether Stubbs is a bust or not.

jojo
06-27-2007, 08:11 AM
Dan O'Brien is obv. a better drafter than Wayne Krivsky. Just look at 2005, when DanO selected Jay Bruce. In the second and third rounds, DanO selected Travis Wood and Zach Ward, respectively. The year before, he brilliantly decided on B.J. Szymanski and Craig Tatum. Compare that to Wayne's terrible choices of Sean Watson and Chris Valaika.

Sarcasm aside, I think that ten years from now, people will be able to compare the 2006 draft with DanO's drafts and decide that the 2006 draft is the best of the three, regardless of whether Stubbs is a bust or not.

Was it really DanO and Krivsky who actually made the real decisions?

HokieRed
06-27-2007, 11:37 AM
Because I'm a Reds fan I hope the 2006 draft does turn out better than those of 2004 and 2005, and the 2007 one much better than all of the above--because if those things happen, we'll be good. But I really don't see how the 2006 draft can even be estimated yet as the players who seem strongest from that draft are only doing exactly what one would expect from them, given the relatively low levels at which they're playing. There's one exception, and he's actually starting to give me more hope in the 2006 draft than I had--and that's Dorn, who's hitting the ball hard at Sarasota. Watson had tremendous K-BB numbers at Dayton and is very promising. Let's see what he does at Sarasota. Valaika's success at Dayton really doesn't indicate a whole lot, Stubbs' struggles there mean a whole lot more (and, again, I hope Stubbs straightens it out and becomes an All-Star CF). On O'Brien's drafts, there's also danger in underestimating Craig Tatum, who has really started to hit, and it's worth pointing out that Travis Wood is pitching at Sarasota (and last night, I believe, pitching d--- well) two years out of high school (that's high school, not college). Don't forget such other O'Brien signees as Carlos Fisher and Johnny Cueto, and I for one certainly wish we had Zach Ward back (check out his ground outs to fly outs ratio) as well as Justin Germano, picked up of course by Dan. Just think how much sense it would have made last year to keep Germano and Ward, let the Twins pay 4 million to Lohse and the Phillies 2+ to Rheal Cormier.

dougdirt
06-27-2007, 11:43 AM
Was it really DanO and Krivsky who actually made the real decisions?
Not at all. From everything I have read, the general managers for nearly all teams have very little to do with the actual drafting of the players.


Dan O'Brien is obv. a better drafter than Wayne Krivsky. Just look at 2005, when DanO selected Jay Bruce. In the second and third rounds, DanO selected Travis Wood and Zach Ward, respectively. The year before, he brilliantly decided on B.J. Szymanski and Craig Tatum. Compare that to Wayne's terrible choices of Sean Watson and Chris Valaika.

Sarcasm aside, I think that ten years from now, people will be able to compare the 2006 draft with DanO's drafts and decide that the 2006 draft is the best of the three, regardless of whether Stubbs is a bust or not.

I highly doubt the 2006 draft will be looked upon as a better draft than the 2005 draft.
2005 Draft went Jay Bruce (Top 5 prospect in baseball and no one in the 2006 draft will ever reach this status), Travis Wood (20 years old, A+, good strikeout numbers, solid hit per 9 numbers. inconsistant at times though), Zach Ward (traded, but 23 years old, A+, 3.18 ERA, fewer hits than ip, over 8 strikeouts per 9 innings, 3-1 groundball to flyball rate).

2006 went Drew Stubbs (while even I am higher on him than most everyone on this board, he still wouldnt rank ahead of Wood or Bruce), Sean Watson (very good pitcher, still unsure if he gets bumped ahead of Travis Wood though on the prospect list given they are at the same level and if I were to look at each players arsenal Travis at least throws 3 pitches while Sean basically throws his fastball and his knuckle curve. Travis also has his change up, which is the best change up in the minor leagues. Sean can't say that about any of his pitches). Third round was Chris Valaika (who is performing very well, but is still in low A. He is probably somewhere in the 5-7 range on the Reds prospect list mixed in there with Wood and Watson).

Give me Bruce, Wood and Ward easily over Stubbs, Watson and Valaika. Its not even a close race. Heck, to be honest give me Bruce over the 2006 first 3 round guys, because he is closer than them all, much better than them all and a lot more likely to pan out. Did I mention he is nearly a year and a half younger than them all?

As for the 2005 draft.... Szymanski is the only one of the first 3 rounds that has not performed. Tatum is hitting .320 and slugging over .500 in the FSL and was just promoted to Chattanooga. I don't have to tell you about Homer Bailey, but again, the 2006 class doesn't have anyone in the same class as Homer Bailey in terms of talent, just like they didnt in the 2005 class with Bruce.

Benihana
06-27-2007, 11:49 AM
Not at all. From everything I have read, the general managers for nearly all teams have very little to do with the actual drafting of the players.



I highly doubt the 2006 draft will be looked upon as a better draft than the 2005 draft.
2005 Draft went Jay Bruce (Top 5 prospect in baseball and no one in the 2006 draft will ever reach this status), Travis Wood (20 years old, A+, good strikeout numbers, solid hit per 9 numbers. inconsistant at times though), Zach Ward (traded, but 23 years old, A+, 3.18 ERA, fewer hits than ip, over 8 strikeouts per 9 innings, 3-1 groundball to flyball rate).

2006 went Drew Stubbs (while even I am higher on him than most everyone on this board, he still wouldnt rank ahead of Wood or Bruce), Sean Watson (very good pitcher, still unsure if he gets bumped ahead of Travis Wood though on the prospect list given they are at the same level and if I were to look at each players arsenal Travis at least throws 3 pitches while Sean basically throws his fastball and his knuckle curve. Travis also has his change up, which is the best change up in the minor leagues. Sean can't say that about any of his pitches). Third round was Chris Valaika (who is performing very well, but is still in low A. He is probably somewhere in the 5-7 range on the Reds prospect list mixed in there with Wood and Watson).

Give me Bruce, Wood and Ward easily over Stubbs, Watson and Valaika. Its not even a close race. Heck, to be honest give me Bruce over the 2006 first 3 round guys, because he is closer than them all, much better than them all and a lot more likely to pan out. Did I mention he is nearly a year and a half younger than them all?

As for the 2005 draft.... Szymanski is the only one of the first 3 rounds that has not performed. Tatum is hitting .320 and slugging over .500 in the FSL and was just promoted to Chattanooga. I don't have to tell you about Homer Bailey, but again, the 2006 class doesn't have anyone in the same class as Homer Bailey in terms of talent, just like they didnt in the 2005 class with Bruce.

Not to pick nits, but Tatum is 24 years old and still in A ball. I would hope a top 3 round pick could hit like that. That said, I agree with most of what you said. The 2005 draft is clearly the cream of the crop.

BRM
06-27-2007, 11:51 AM
Tatum was promoted to Chattanooga?

dougdirt
06-27-2007, 12:01 PM
Not to pick nits, but Tatum is 24 years old and still in A ball. I would hope a top 3 round pick could hit like that. That said, I agree with most of what you said. The 2005 draft is clearly the cream of the crop.

He is now in AA. He was promoted after yesterdays game according to a parent of a Sarasota Reds player.

Benihana
06-27-2007, 12:02 PM
good to hear. Hopefully he can hit in AA too.

BRM
06-27-2007, 12:03 PM
He is now in AA. He was promoted after yesterdays game according to a parent of a Sarasota Reds player.

Thanks for that update Doug. Let's hope he continues hitting against better competition. The Reds could use a good hitting catcher or two in the system.

dougdirt
06-27-2007, 12:05 PM
Thanks for that update Doug. Let's hope he continues hitting against better competition. The Reds could use a good hitting catcher or two in the system.

They currently have two catchers hitting very well actually. Tatum as we have discussed and then Ryan Hanigan is currently in AA and has put up a .299/.404/.426 line which is very solid. He is going to turn 27 this year, but he is hitting very well.

BRM
06-27-2007, 12:06 PM
I was just about to ask you about Hanigan. What are the plans for him now that Tatum is in Chattanooga?

dougdirt
06-27-2007, 12:23 PM
I would hope that he is heading to Louisville. The current catchers in Louisville are all pretty poor hitters.

Red Leader
06-27-2007, 12:33 PM
My how Miguel Perez's stock has fallen. Once thought to be the catcher of the future for the Reds, now I'd imagine he'd have some work and growing to do just to be a MLB backup. Many raved about his defense (and still do), I didn't see it when I saw him play in Dayton. He had lazy footwork and seemed to take plays off and lose mental concentration. Admittedly that was a couple years ago (I wasn't that impressed with Felix Pie when he played in the Midwest league either), so Perez could have further developed and improved, I just never saw the love of his defensive game.