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jojo
06-22-2007, 11:43 AM
There's been a growing cry for Narron to be replaced both from local sports talk radio and the fan base in general. The Orioles were the first team to pull the trigger on a beleaguered manager. Both that and the O's pursuit of Girardi have only turned up the heat on Narron. Perhaps Castro PHing for Hamilton in the 9th against the As perhaps may have been the last straw for Reds fans who were on the fence about Narron.

In my mind, the calls for Narron to be fired beg the question that Narron has significantly impacted the Reds record. Basically it assumes Narron is an anchor and someone else could've righted the ship. Just how much impact does a manager have though? I'd be interested in knowing how many losses people think Narron should be on the hook for (this is an honest question). Or to ask it another way, how many wins better would the Reds be with any other manager available? Basically what is Narron's WORM (wins over replacement manager) and why do you think that?

Obviously this isn't high powered sabermetrics. For the sake of this discussion assume that a replacement level manager would basically be roughly equal to the type of guy that fills the interim role following a managerial firing. If Narron is worse than that in your mind, give him a negative number of wins. If he's better, give him a positive number of wins etc. Hopefully this discussion will help develop a context in which to judge Narron rather than more of the usual venting that we often do.

TOBTTReds
06-22-2007, 11:56 AM
I think the difference is minimal, like 1 or 2 games. But I think in the future, it is costing us more and more. His inability to manage a young bullpen, or young players. Not letting Hamilton get experience vs. LH pitchers. Running Arroyo out there for 130 pitches, and Harang is around the top 3 in pitches per start. He is trying to kill our pitchers. The abuse they take this year, is going to be a huge factor in the remaining years of their contracts.

Joseph
06-22-2007, 12:01 PM
See, I think a 'good' manager can make a big difference here. I think Narron has a negative "WORM" [or a "WURM, Wins Under replacement Manager] and if we had a 'good' manager with a positive "WORM" it could be worth 5-7 wins.

Ie Narrons costs the team 2 or 3 wins a year and a 'good' manager could gain the team 3 or 4 wins a year over a league average manager for a swing of 5-7 to the positive.

I use the term good subjectively.

Though that could be the 'idiot' in me.

Kc61
06-22-2007, 12:09 PM
I don't think the issue is whether Narron costs wins in 2007. Narron tries very hard to win each game, often too hard, and this leads to overuse of pitchers, lefty/righty switches that may not benefit young players, etc.

I think the fault has been the organization's failure to recognize that the mission now is to groom young talent for the future. Even Castellini's recent comment to the effect that "we'll be better with Guardado" conveys an incorrect perception of where this team is at. For weeks, now, Narron should have been principally focused on development of young players. The current team is obviously going nowhere.

So, without lauding Narron's performance, I think the issue is less his personal managing style and more the organization's emphasis. Hopefully, in the second half of the season, the top brass will instruct Narron to manage for the future.

jojo
06-22-2007, 12:14 PM
I've been thinking about this a little here and there so my opinion probably isn't very well developed yet. However, I'm not sure any manager could've won with this team. Chris Jaffe did a study on managers recently and he had favorable comments for Narron (here's a related thread (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=57607&highlight=narron)). I think Narron probably is an average manager whose success like most managers depends upon his personnel.

Being an Ms fan, I'd trade Hargrove for Narron in a heartbeat. The Reds fan in me wouldn't do that deal.

Guess if forced too, I'd say Narron is a game or two better than an interim manager.

I think there are far worse managers in the majors right now, and they are regarded more highly because their teams win inspite of them. Maybe Narron's bad luck is that he happens to have a roster that exposes his deficiencies.

dfs
06-22-2007, 12:29 PM
I don't think the issue is whether Narron costs wins in 2007. Narron tries very hard to win each game, often too hard, and this leads to overuse of pitchers, lefty/righty switches that may not benefit young players, etc.

I think the fault has been the organization's failure to recognize that the mission now is to groom young talent for the future. Even Castellini's recent comment to the effect that "we'll be better with Guardado" conveys an incorrect perception of where this team is at. For weeks, now, Narron should have been principally focused on development of young players. The current team is obviously going nowhere.

So, without lauding Narron's performance, I think the issue is less his personal managing style and more the organization's emphasis. Hopefully, in the second half of the season, the top brass will instruct Narron to manage for the future.

I wish I had written that.

The biggest thing a manager can do is have the right 8 guys in his starting lineup. After that have the right 5 guys in his rotation, then the right 25 guys on his roster and finally he can run his bullpen well.

While I can quibble about the end of his bench, I have to really get down to the fourth option there and while I've been very critical of Narron's management of the pen.....That's not the reason they're 20 games below 500.

The organization didn't understand where it was in the offseason.

M2
06-22-2007, 12:33 PM
I think the larger question the organization must ask itself is "Where do we go from here?"

2007 ain't happening. Kiss it goodbye. Perhaps the club can recover to play a better brand of baseball in the second half, but the folks upstairs need to realize what they attempted this year didn't work and that it's likely a fool's errand to attempt it again.

As for Narron, the determination needs to be made whether he's the guy to manage the club in whatever new direction it's taking. Chances are he isn't. If that's the determination, then it's time to can him and turn the team over to a caretaker until a permanent replacement can be found.

From Krivsky's standpoint, keeping the manager he inherited wasn't particularly smart to begin with. GMs, particularly Reds GMs, have short shelf lives. Time to start hunting for your guy Wayne.

RedsBaron
06-22-2007, 12:34 PM
I think the difference is minimal, like 1 or 2 games. But I think in the future, it is costing us more and more. His inability to manage a young bullpen, or young players. Not letting Hamilton get experience vs. LH pitchers. Running Arroyo out there for 130 pitches, and Harang is around the top 3 in pitches per start. He is trying to kill our pitchers. The abuse they take this year, is going to be a huge factor in the remaining years of their contracts.

I agree. If John McGraw or Joe McCarthy or Sparky Anderson or Earl Weaver were managing the Reds, they would still probably have a losing record. My concern with Narron is more that he reduces the chances of the Reds being a contender in 2009.

Joseph
06-22-2007, 12:37 PM
I don't think Krivsky and BCasts inability to to recognize the lack of 'compete now' ability this team had is an excuse for Narron's mismanagement of whats there.

Yes he couldn't help that WK wouldn't give him Homer when he wanted, but I'd wager dollars to donuts Narron was a driving force behind the acquisition of some of these veterans that aren't getting it done as well as the continued presence of Castro and Moeller on the bench.

I'd even wager listening to Narron too much is one of WK's biggest faults. That's just my perception, gut feeling, what have you.

RedsManRick
06-22-2007, 01:10 PM
I had a huge post written out with examples and all that. But I think I can sum it up quite easily.

Macro > Micro.

Create an environment where every player can excel to the best of their ability, don't get your players hurt, and don't overthink on a day to day basis.

The gains on the margins from in-game management choices are minuscule compared to the influence of an injured ace or breakout rookie who was handled properly. Sure, on balance, I want the guy who puts OBP at the top of the lineup, who doesn't sacrifice in the first inning, takes a mid-level starter out after 97 pitches and a wild but scoreless 6th inning, and isn't afraid to throw his closer in the 8th inning of a tie game.

But more than any of that, just don't screw things up. Give me a manager who can get along with team's best players, keeps them healthy and in the lineup, and doesn't cost me too many games with his micro level decisions. Given that, I'll spend the rest of my time trying to improve the team he has to work with.

bucksfan2
06-22-2007, 02:09 PM
IMO I think Narron has cost the reds from 5-10 wins this season. The problem is its hard to measure a manager. You cant look at one event and point that to a loss. However you can look at a number of things as see how they put together make a club worse. Some of the things I dislike about Narron are his inability to back up his players on the field, especially the younger ones. For example when Edwin was struggling it seemed like he was getting a lot of marginal calls that went against him. Narron never went out and argued for him. This is one of my biggest complaints of Narron. The good managers are the ones that go out and are ejected for the mear fact of taking the side of his player.

Another thing I hate about Narron is that he always makes excuses for why the team loses. I get sick and tired of hearing "Well they hit a good pitch" or "Thats just baseball". Enough with the excuses I would much rather have manager come out and go Leyland or Pinella on the team than make excuses like Narron.

I think his management of the bullpen has been out right criminal. He seems to put his players in positions that they are uncomfortable with. How many times was Coffey run out in a close game only to fail over and over again? How many times was Count kept in the game for a rh batter too long?

Your top run producer Dunn (whether you like him or not) hitting sixth protected by the likes of Ross, Castro, Gonzo, and Moeller give him absolutly no protection. Pitchers can pitch around Dunn to get to one of the many weak hitting 7 and 8 hole hitters.

Matt700wlw
06-22-2007, 02:23 PM
Will Narron being fired improve this current team? No. Maybe somebody else could get the most out of them, but then again maybe not. Maybe Jerry is..don't know...don't really care.

What getting rid of Narron does is allows this team to focus on the future....get somebody in here (Girardi?) to have "extra spring training" to see what currently is good, and what currently is not, so come this offseason, the Reds can make the right moves....part of this is on Krivsky being willing to have someone in here who may stand up to him and take charge....I don't think Jerry Narron is that guy.

Honestly, watching Jerry Narron manage on Sunday was the last straw for me...pinch hitting Juan Castro for Josh Hamilton, and then giving the reasons he did as to why he did it, is a sure sign that he really has no business managing a major league baseball team.


Jerry Narron is not part of the future of this baseball team....so it's time to stop pretending he is....pull the trigger, get a leader in here, and move on.


Every day from here on out that Jerry Narron keeps his job is a waste of our time, this organizations time, and his time.

pedro
06-22-2007, 02:49 PM
As bad as Narron's been it's hard for a manager to have a 5-10 negative game effect in just under a half season. 3-4 games is probably more likely although i don't really have any specific instances to site. My worry is that he'll do something stupid with the pitchers and get one of them hurt.

BCubb2003
06-22-2007, 02:57 PM
Four games would put the Reds fourth instead of sixth, a game and a half out of second.

It is hard to measure, but would a season-long lineup that had Griffey, Dunn and Encarnacion in a row performed better? I think so. Could the pitching be managed better in the seventh and eighth innings? I think he was doomed no matter what he did. Could the players have overachieved for someone else? Possibly.

jojo
06-22-2007, 03:07 PM
IMO I think Narron has cost the reds from 5-10 wins this season. The problem is its hard to measure a manager. You cant look at one event and point that to a loss. However you can look at a number of things as see how they put together make a club worse. Some of the things I dislike about Narron are his inability to back up his players on the field, especially the younger ones. For example when Edwin was struggling it seemed like he was getting a lot of marginal calls that went against him. Narron never went out and argued for him. This is one of my biggest complaints of Narron. The good managers are the ones that go out and are ejected for the mear fact of taking the side of his player.

Another thing I hate about Narron is that he always makes excuses for why the team loses. I get sick and tired of hearing "Well they hit a good pitch" or "Thats just baseball". Enough with the excuses I would much rather have manager come out and go Leyland or Pinella on the team than make excuses like Narron.

I think his management of the bullpen has been out right criminal. He seems to put his players in positions that they are uncomfortable with. How many times was Coffey run out in a close game only to fail over and over again? How many times was Count kept in the game for a rh batter too long?

Your top run producer Dunn (whether you like him or not) hitting sixth protected by the likes of Ross, Castro, Gonzo, and Moeller give him absolutly no protection. Pitchers can pitch around Dunn to get to one of the many weak hitting 7 and 8 hole hitters.


I don't know. Five to ten wins implies his decisions have cost the Reds between 50 and 100 runs. I'm thinking that's getting close to the point where it's hyperbole to suggest even a GM can cause that much damage in less than half a season without something tantamount to a fire sale.

M2
06-22-2007, 03:20 PM
One of the problems with figuring out how many wins a manager is worth is that you can't know if players would play differently under another manager. Say some guys get put in better lineup slots. Say another manager finds a working bullpen rotation. Say another manager begets better defensive positioning, better plans of attack for both hitters and pitchers.

Obviously in-game tinkering only means so much in terms of wins and losses, but there is the possibility that another manager would get some big things right.

Though my take on Narron is he's been deemed the guy to lead the current version of the Reds and the current version of the Reds needs a dynamite enema.

Chip R
06-22-2007, 03:30 PM
Though my take on Narron is he's been deemed the guy to lead the current version of the Reds and the current version of the Reds needs a dynamite enema.


Not that I don't want Narron ran out of town on a rail, but when you hire a new manager in mid-season and you've thrown in the towel, it's not necessarily going to be a positive to make it like an extra Spring Training - as Matt said - if that's even possible. New guy comes in and says he likes this guy and that guy and not the other guy, he might not have a whole lot to say about it. He may like Dunn and Wayne may get someone offering him some relief pitchers and/or 2nd basemen or light hitting catchers and there goes the keystone for New Manager's lineup. One thing you have to say about Narron and Krivsky is that for better or worse they seem to be on the same page.

jojo
06-22-2007, 03:33 PM
What getting rid of Narron does is allows this team to focus on the future....get somebody in here (Girardi?) to have "extra spring training" to see what currently is good, and what currently is not, so come this offseason, the Reds can make the right moves....part of this is on Krivsky being willing to have someone in here who may stand up to him and take charge....I don't think Jerry Narron is that guy.

It might just be me but I don't find this extended spring training argument to be that compelling. You don't need a new manager to bring the kids up and take stock. You certainly don't need a new manager to determine if Weathers, Stanton, Conine and company are your future.

It's not the manager's job to take charge and stand up to Krivsky. It's the manager's job to put the best personnel on the field in a given situation that his roster will afford. The manager heavily influences the roster coming out of spring training, probably has some influence on personnel decisions during the season, and his opinion is weighted to varying degrees during the right-after-the season-take-stock retreat, but there isn't a manager in the game that tells the GM what to do.

Concerning Girardi, I don't think he's a lock to be the guy that the Reds need. He basically managed a young team with raw talent to a record that was 2 games worse than it's pythag record. This team doesn't need a change in culture relative to it's intangibles. It needs a change in culture relative to it's talent on the roster.

Narron will be the fall guy probably almost certainly, but '07 is on Krivsky IMHO and a new manager given a roster similar in talent to this one in '08 will be jeered in effigy just like Narron is now.

Johnny Footstool
06-22-2007, 03:35 PM
Three catchers.

Two years in a row, Narron has used a bench spot to carry a third catcher.

That tells you all you really need to know about Narron's managerial skills.

jojo
06-22-2007, 03:41 PM
Three catchers.

Two years in a row, Narron has used a bench spot to carry a third catcher.

That tells you all you really need to know about Narron's managerial skills.

I wonder if that's all on Narron. I remember an interview with him during the offseason where he said it was virtually certain there wouldn't be 3 catchers on the roster. I doubt Narron can dictate the roster with any real power.

M2
06-22-2007, 03:45 PM
Not that I don't want Narron ran out of town on a rail, but when you hire a new manager in mid-season and you've thrown in the towel, it's not necessarily going to be a positive to make it like an extra Spring Training - as Matt said - if that's even possible. New guy comes in and says he likes this guy and that guy and not the other guy, he might not have a whole lot to say about it. He may like Dunn and Wayne may get someone offering him some relief pitchers and/or 2nd basemen or light hitting catchers and there goes the keystone for New Manager's lineup. One thing you have to say about Narron and Krivsky is that for better or worse they seem to be on the same page.

I definintely wouldn't expect it to be like spring training v.2. An interim skipper, as you noted, would be there to keep the team functional until the end of the season (and I can't stress enough that interim should mean just that, interim with no chance of becoming permanent).

I was just saying that if the team had a theoretically better manager from the get go then you might have the power of things gone right working for the club and who knows what the effect on the W-L record would have been.

I agree Krivsky and Narron have seemed to be on the same page, thing is Wayne needs to turn the page and find a better one.

Cooper
06-22-2007, 04:00 PM
RE: the 3 catcher thing. Hatty used to play catcher. There's prolly a 1-3% chance you my need a 3rd catcher. Couldn't Hatty fill that need? Just seems wasted, but the way he uses people is out of whack anyway so I'm not sure it really matters.

If you hve a manager that is silly enough to use Jaun Castro -then maybe you have to take a way that option so as not to tempt.

Johnny Footstool
06-22-2007, 04:05 PM
I wonder if that's all on Narron. I remember an interview with him during the offseason where he said it was virtually certain there wouldn't be 3 catchers on the roster. I doubt Narron can dictate the roster with any real power.

The manager does have input as to the roster needs of the team. I don't think Krivsky would carry 3 catchers without Narron (a former fringe-of-the-roster catcher himself) asking him to do so.

BTW - Splitting ABs among three catchers sure has kept all of them fresh and performing at a high level, huh?

Ross: .198/.249/.371/.620
Valentin: .235/.308/.368/.675
Moeller: .195/.195/.293/.488

Their aggregate OPS is ranked 15th in the NL, ahead of only Arizona. Their OBP is the worst.

Chip R
06-22-2007, 04:09 PM
I was just saying that if the team had a theoretically better manager from the get go then you might have the power of things gone right working for the club and who knows what the effect on the W-L record would have been.

I agree Krivsky and Narron have seemed to be on the same page, thing is Wayne needs to turn the page and find a better one.


I agree. However I, like others, worry that when Narron is fired, Wayne is going to hire someone only slightly less incompetent than Narron. Wayne was, after all, the one who kept Narron on and gave him the extention and has not sacked him yet.

Redsland
06-22-2007, 04:10 PM
Three catchers.

Two years in a row, Narron has used a bench spot to carry a third catcher.

That tells you all you really need to know about Narron's managerial skills.
Wayne Krivsky (http://frontier.cincinnati.com/blogs/spring/2006/11/krivsky-on-moeller.asp), the day he signed Chad Moeller:
"You need depth," said Krivsky. "You need a team. You need guys with roles. You just cant go with two catchers youd better have depth there."

Number of major league teams: 30

Number of major league teams that do not have three catchers on their active rosters right now: 28

Number of major league teams with more than two catchers on their active rosters right now: 2

The other team?

The Twins.

Matt700wlw
06-22-2007, 04:10 PM
I agree. However I, like others, worry that when Narron is fired, Wayne is going to hire someone only slightly less incompetent than Narron. Wayne was, after all, the one who kept Narron on and gave him the extention and has not sacked him yet.

Actually, Castellini gave the dual extensions...

I wonder if he's regretting that now....

Matt700wlw
06-22-2007, 04:11 PM
Wayne Krivsky (http://frontier.cincinnati.com/blogs/spring/2006/11/krivsky-on-moeller.asp), the day he signed Chad Moeller:
"You need depth," said Krivsky. "You need a team. You need guys with roles. You just cant go with two catchers youd better have depth there."

Number of major league teams: 30

Number of major league teams that do not have three catchers on their active rosters right now: 28

Number of major league teams with more than two catchers on their active rosters right now: 2

The other team?

The Twins.


At least Joe Mauer can hit :D

Chip R
06-22-2007, 04:18 PM
Actually, Castellini gave the dual extensions...

I wonder if he's regretting that now....


Krivsky's, for sure. Narron's, that's on Krivsky.

BCubb2003
06-22-2007, 04:20 PM
I'm not sure I can go for the argument that this team's so bad it doesn't matter if it has a bad manager. Every little bit helps, until it all comes together.

pedro
06-22-2007, 04:25 PM
Krivsky's, for sure. Narron's, that's on Krivsky.

No, I'm pretty sure that Narron's came directly from Castellini

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2503000

Cooper
06-22-2007, 04:27 PM
It sure doesn't help that the Reds are 6 games below our pythag.....maybe that's just regression. Weren't they 5 over last year?

With Davey Johnson managing-a .500 team would be possible.

M2
06-22-2007, 04:28 PM
Every little bit helps, until it all comes together.

Every little bit helps. Believe me
Every little bit helps. Believe me
Every little bit helps. Please help me.
Believe me.

smith288
06-22-2007, 04:30 PM
At least Joe Mauer can hit :D
David Ross is aaaalmost Joe Mauer-esque

Chip R
06-22-2007, 04:31 PM
No, I'm pretty sure that Narron's came directly from Castellini

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2503000


Of course the owner has to sign off on it but Bob wouldn't have done it if Wayne didn't think it was a good idea. According to Bob, Wayne runs the baseball operations.

Johnny Footstool
06-22-2007, 04:31 PM
Wayne Krivsky (http://frontier.cincinnati.com/blogs/spring/2006/11/krivsky-on-moeller.asp), the day he signed Chad Moeller:
"You need depth," said Krivsky. "You need a team. You need guys with roles. You just can’t go with two catchers – you’d better have depth there."

Number of major league teams: 30

Number of major league teams that do not have three catchers on their active rosters right now: 28

Number of major league teams with more than two catchers on their active rosters right now: 2

The other team?

The Twins.

The Twins currently have Chris Heintz on the roster only because of Joe Mauer's injury. He was in AAA until Mauer got hurt, and he'll only be with the big league club until Mauer has proven himself healthy enough to assume the llion's share of catching duties. And as an AL team, they can afford to waste a bench spot for a little while.

As for Krivsky's comments, I believe he meant the team needed another catcher *on the 40-man roster* who could be called up in case of injury. I seriously doubt he intended for Moeller to be taking up bench space in the majors. If he did, well, that's another reason to detest him.

Redsland
06-22-2007, 04:34 PM
As for Krivsky's comments, I believe he meant the team needed another catcher *on the 40-man roster* who could be called up in case of injury.
If that were the case, then he would have given Moeller a minor league contract and an invitation to spring training. Or maybe a split contract. But he didn't do those things. He signed Moeller to a major league deal right from the start.

:bang:

Redsland
06-22-2007, 04:41 PM
Moeller: .195/.195/.293/.488
Marc (http://frontier.cincinnati.com/blogs/spring/2006_11_26_default.asp) and Krivsky the day he signed Moeller:

"And Moeller's .184 average in 29 games with the Brewers last year?

"Hes better than that," said Krivsky.
Yep. By eleven points. :bang:

This is the same guy who extended David Ross, BTW.

Johnny Footstool
06-22-2007, 04:45 PM
If that were the case, then he would have given Moeller a minor league contract and an invitation to spring training. Or maybe a split contract. But he didn't do those things. He signed Moeller to a major league deal right from the start.

:bang:

Yes, but then he DFA'ed him and sent him to Louisville. Of course, a month later, he brought him back to stay.

I really can't tell who the main culprit is: Krivsky, Narron, or both. I thought I'd give Wayne the benefit of the doubt on this one, since Narron's dunce cap is slightly bigger. But based on your comments, now I'm thinking "WaynK" had a big hand in it.

Cooper
06-22-2007, 04:50 PM
they have perfect synchronicity (in the bottom of a dark scottish lake)...

pedro
06-22-2007, 05:22 PM
Yes, but then he DFA'ed him and sent him to Louisville. Of course, a month later, he brought him back to stay.

I really can't tell who the main culprit is: Krivsky, Narron, or both. I thought I'd give Wayne the benefit of the doubt on this one, since Narron's dunce cap is slightly bigger. But based on your comments, now I'm thinking "WaynK" had a big hand in it.

Being that Javy is essentially the primary LH pinch hitter having a third catcher isn't a big deal to me. I'm sure most teams that carry only two catchers don't employ their BU catcher as the first bat off the bench.

TMBS, although I understand that most teams have lousy BU catchers, you'd think somewhere, somehow, someone better than Moeller has to be out there.

Johnny Footstool
06-22-2007, 05:34 PM
Being that Javy is essentially the primary LH pinch hitter having a third catcher isn't a big deal to me. I'm sure most teams that carry only two catchers don't employ their BU catcher as the first bat off the bench.

TMBS, although I understand that most teams have lousy BU catchers, you'd think somewhere, somehow, someone better than Moeller has to be out there.

I'd think you could find a better LH pinch hitter, too. Especially this season, considering Javy's current .604 OPS vs. righties.

His stellar 2005 splits notwithstanding, Javy career vs. righties has been mediocre. Decent for a catcher, but lousy as a primary pinch hitter.

Aronchis
06-22-2007, 05:38 PM
Maybe instead of trying to play the 'blame game', you should point out the Reds were in a impossible situation to begin with. That is what Cast/Krivsky should be dealing with and so far they have not. The Reds are underperforming this year just like they overperformed last year.

Maybe they will overperform next year? Beware of non-projectable flukes like the 2002 Reds. They were a bad team that imploded the following year because the flukes like Jimmy Haynes and Elmer Dessens went down the tubes. GM's have got to see through that. The 99-00 Reds were a similiar tale on a greater scale.

Maybe we start thinking beyond wins and losses, instead look at the construct and its failures over the last 11 years. That may be painfull for some, but with the reactionary nature of this organization, something that hasn't been done since the 97-98 period: Plan ahead.

M2
06-22-2007, 07:19 PM
Being that Javy is essentially the primary LH pinch hitter having a third catcher isn't a big deal to me. I'm sure most teams that carry only two catchers don't employ their BU catcher as the first bat off the bench.

That of course overlooks the fact that no team should ever want Javier Valentin as its primary LH pinch hitter (or secondary LH pinch hitter for that matter).

pedro
06-22-2007, 07:34 PM
That of course overlooks the fact that no team should ever want Javier Valentin as its primary LH pinch hitter (or secondary LH pinch hitter for that matter).

I can't really argue that.

bucksfan2
06-23-2007, 06:28 PM
I don't know. Five to ten wins implies his decisions have cost the Reds between 50 and 100 runs. I'm thinking that's getting close to the point where it's hyperbole to suggest even a GM can cause that much damage in less than half a season without something tantamount to a fire sale.

I dont think 5-10 wins equals 50-100 runs. It is just my guess that he has negatively affected the outcome of the game to the tune of 5-10 games. The problem with baseball is that you can not pinpoint one event and say that is where they lost the game. Its not like football where you do something on 4th down that loses the game for you. Baseball is a game where decisions one day can effect the team for the next few games. Pitching a pitcher too many days in a row. Leaving a pitcher in the game to throw too many pitches. Giving/not giving a player a day off. All these decision may not equal a loss but the have a hand in the loss. I have heard that a manager equats for about 5 gams a year but I think you can look at this reds club as see they are far more talented than the way they are playing. It is on the players because they are the ones who are hitting/catching/throwing the ball but the manager is there to put each individual player in the best position to give the team the best chance to win. I will argue that Narron doesn't put his players in the best situation to win a game. So I will say that Narron has cost the team around 5 games this year by his managerial mistakes.

jojo
06-23-2007, 06:34 PM
I will argue that Narron doesn't put his players in the best situation to win a game. So I will say that Narron has cost the team around 5 games this year by his managerial mistakes.

What would be a prime example where Narron hasn't put his players in the best situation to win?

RedlegJake
06-24-2007, 12:09 AM
The problem with firing managers in mid season is the replacement is usually an organization guy who is part of the problem - especially when the there seems to be a systemic problem. Get rid of Narron? I'm on board for that but the track record for mid season replacements lately kind of sucks. A Bucky Dent type who'll come in, the club will improve, almost inevitably, since the talent level is better than they are playing (yes - more indictment of Narron) and WK will sign the new guy to an extended contract. More of the same stupid roster moves, "pesky" role players and "plucky" veterans over young talent, and the beat goes on. The overwhile direction doesn't change, the organizational thinking remains, and the "new" manager is part of it. What the Reds are doing isn't working. Go outside the organization for a new manager with a decent track record. Otherwise keep Narron til the season's over and hope Krivsky gets a good return for Dunn (since it almost seems foregone that he will be traded). Generally, I'm very interested in seeing how patient Castellini will be with WK than how much rope Narron has left. It will speak volumes if things don't turn around and WK remains for long. I was euphoric when Cast took over. Now I'm wondering if he is just better at sound bytes and PR than the last owner but not really more interested in winning.

Big Klu
06-24-2007, 01:24 AM
Wayne Krivsky (http://frontier.cincinnati.com/blogs/spring/2006/11/krivsky-on-moeller.asp), the day he signed Chad Moeller:
"You need depth," said Krivsky. "You need a team. You need guys with roles. You just cant go with two catchers youd better have depth there."

Number of major league teams: 30

Number of major league teams that do not have three catchers on their active rosters right now: 28

Number of major league teams with more than two catchers on their active rosters right now: 2

The other team?

The Twins.

The other factor in all of this is the fact that the Reds have only a five-man bench. A third catcher is a luxury that can be afforded with a seven-man bench, or even a six-man bench--if one of the catchers is a viable option at another position. But it limits a five-man bench too much.

camisadelgolf
06-24-2007, 02:31 PM
I opened this thread because I thought it would be about Narron dying from worms. What does "RIP and WORMs" mean anyway? :confused:

jojo
06-24-2007, 03:19 PM
I opened this thread because I thought it would be about Narron dying from worms. What does "RIP and WORMs" mean anyway? :confused:

RIP was a reference to the potential that he gets the axe. WORMs was a made up acronym for wins over replacement manager meant to start a discussion about whether Narron really deserves his fate.

bucksfan2
06-27-2007, 09:05 AM
I remembered this thread while watching the game last night. I had said how you really can't measure how a manager effects the team directly. Last night was a prime example of how Narron may have cost his team in the next few days.

Homer was off last night and was pitcing bad. I saw no reaso for Narron to yank him so early. He should have used this as a learning example and hoped to get atleast another inning or two out of Homer. He needs to learn how to bear down and pitch when he doesn't have his best stuff. Everyone knows he is going to have outings like last night so chalk it up as a loss and use it as a learning example to hope to get better in the future.

His second mistake was when he yanked Gosling early. Gosling had been a starting pitcher in AAA and I think all his career. He should have left Gosling in the game for as long as possible in hopes to save some bull pen arms. But in Narron fashion he pulls Gosling in a game that is out of reach for a righty righty matchup with none other than Todd Coffey. This made no sense to me. You basically waste Gosling's arm for 2 days and you dont get the most out of it.

Then he takes Coffey who has ignited more fires this year than put out in there to give up a 3 rbi double and then leaves him in the game for 2+ innings. Coffey is a 1, 2 max inning pitcher so he waste him for probably around 2 days because he pitched more than he normally does. (It may be a good thing that Coffey is out for a couple games)

He burnes up 2 relievers for a couple of days from an already bad bullpen. A move like this can effect the outcome of the next few games.

dfs
06-27-2007, 09:50 AM
Thanks BucksFan2 that's exactly the drum I've been banging on. He's behind by 5 runs in the third inning and he's STILL managing looking for matchups like it's the 7th game of the world series.

You start paying attention and you see that all over every game. There may be no talent in that bullpen, but the way they are used doesn't give anybody a chance to be successful.

OldXOhio
06-27-2007, 12:15 PM
As much as I too would like Narron to be gone, what are the expectations of this team if a new manager were brought in mid-season? A run at the division? Protection of Homer Bailey? Better mgmt of a tired bullpen?

This season is toast and the fans in Cincinnati and surrounding areas know it. I just as soon see Narron finish out the season and get the axe in early October. Somebody has to manage this bunch - might as well be the guy you're currently paying to do it. As has been previously mentioned, I have no interest in another disciple with an interim tag that gets parlayed into a multi-year agreement because the team magically played .500+ ball under his guidance.

RichRed
06-27-2007, 12:21 PM
As much as I too would like Narron to be gone, what are the expectations of this team if a new manager were brought in mid-season? A run at the division? Protection of Homer Bailey? Better mgmt of a tired bullpen?


I'll settle for not abusing the arms of the pitchers who are counted on to carry the load for this team over the next few years.

bucksfan2
06-27-2007, 01:58 PM
As much as I too would like Narron to be gone, what are the expectations of this team if a new manager were brought in mid-season? A run at the division? Protection of Homer Bailey? Better mgmt of a tired bullpen?

This season is toast and the fans in Cincinnati and surrounding areas know it. I just as soon see Narron finish out the season and get the axe in early October. Somebody has to manage this bunch - might as well be the guy you're currently paying to do it. As has been previously mentioned, I have no interest in another disciple with an interim tag that gets parlayed into a multi-year agreement because the team magically played .500+ ball under his guidance.

Heres my thing. This season is done. I want the rest of the season for the reds younger players to learn as much as possible to better themselves in teh future. Narron on the other hand is managing to save his job so every game is important. You can learn a lot about yourself when you or your team is struggling. Unfortunatly with Narron managing the way he does he doesn't allow this to happen. I want a manager whose sole purpose for the rest of this year is to make the team better for the next season.

Matt700wlw
06-27-2007, 03:44 PM
The longer this goes with nothing be in done, the more I fear Narron will survive the rest of the season...

BRM
06-27-2007, 03:49 PM
The longer this goes with nothing be in done, the more I fear Narron will survive the rest of the season...

For some reason, I feel pretty confident Narron will finish the season.

KronoRed
06-27-2007, 03:56 PM
For some reason, I feel pretty confident Narron will finish the season.

Same, he'd have been fired by now if he was going any earlier.

Of course if he's not gone on the first Monday of the offseason, then it's time to riot, and hey maybe we'll get hot and he'll be ack next year :evil:

Always Red
06-27-2007, 04:05 PM
The longer this goes with nothing be in done, the more I fear Narron will survive the rest of the season...

I don't have any problem with Narron finishing out the season. I have more of a problem with him beginning NEXT season.

Replacement options will be limited if Narron gets canned now; Dent will take over and the Reds will (probably) wind up in 2nd or 3rd place, and then the temptation will be there to give him the job full time. I would not want that.

Who knows, maybe Cast will clean house after this season (mercifully) ends and Kriv and Narron both get fired? Stranger things have happened.

Matt700wlw
06-27-2007, 04:21 PM
I don't have any problem with Narron finishing out the season. I have more of a problem with him beginning NEXT season.





That's the key....however, that will worry me unitl the day they relieve him of his duties.

I can make an argument on getting rid of him now.....but there is absolutely, positively no reason to bring him back next season.