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View Full Version : Would you do this deal(s)?



OnBaseMachine
06-23-2007, 02:39 PM
I would like to hear Redszone's opinion on this deal. Reds trade OF Adam Dunn to the Minnesota Twins for RHP Matt Garza and RHP Eduardo Morlan. The Twins get their big bat that they need and the Reds acquire a major league ready starter with #1 or 2 potential, plus a power arm with the potential to be a future closer or even a starter.

I would hate to trade Adam Dunn as he is one of ym favorite players of all-time, however, if they are going to trade him, this is the deal you make. There have been rumors of a possible Dunn-for-Garza deal, so I'm not just throwing this our there. Out of all the trade rumors involving Dunn, I think this particular deal makes the most sense for both ballclubs. Imagine pairing Homer Bailey and Matt Garza together for the next decade.

Another deal I would pursue is a Scott Hatteberg plus David Weathers and/or Kyle Lohse to the Yankees for RHP Joba Chamberlain or RHP Ian Kennedy, though I prefer Chamberlain due to his bigger frame. The Yankees are desperate for relief help and a 1B, so I could see them parting with Chamberlain. If Krivsky were to pull off these two deals it would allow him to target young hitting prospects in a deal for Griffey.

Anyway, what are your thoughts on the proposed Dunn deal?

vic715
06-23-2007, 03:13 PM
I hate to trade Dunn for prospects altough those two are good looking ones,according to Street&Smith.The Yankee deal is a no-brainer. Do it now.

RedsManRick
06-23-2007, 03:16 PM
I'd do either of those deals in a heartbeat.

Spitball
06-23-2007, 03:20 PM
I like Dunn for Garza, but I can't see the Twins going for it. The Twins are an organization that believes in building on pitching, and Garza is in their long range blueprint for the franchise. Dunn's contract and particular skills don't fit the Twins' mold.

I'm not sure that either Hatteberg or Weathers are the type of difference makers that can command much more than marginal prospects.

OnBaseMachine
06-23-2007, 03:25 PM
Garza criticized the Twins organization a few weeks ago which ticked them off a bit. Don't be surprised to see them trade him, hopefully to the Reds.

fearofpopvol1
06-23-2007, 03:29 PM
I think you can maybe get Garza for Dunn and another prospect, but not Morlan. That's just too much young talent. I think the Yankees deal could happen, but it'll all depend on how desperate the Yanks are. Heck, I'd take Clippard for Hatte and Weathers.

redsrule2500
06-23-2007, 03:32 PM
More Twins?? Let's just move to Minnesota

jojo
06-23-2007, 04:03 PM
The Twins are 5.5 out of the WC right now with three teams ahead of them which is a huge hole to have to climb out of... I'm sure the Twins would listen if Morlan's name was brought up but any conversation that contains Garza and in it really over estimates Dunn's trade value Garza's poor attitude notwithstanding.

Scott Baker's name seems much more realistic to me in relation to a Dunn trade.

REDREAD
06-23-2007, 04:06 PM
Yeah, I'd probably do that Dunn trade. I doubt the Reds are going to do any better, given Dunn's contract status.

Right now, I kind of doubt a Dunn deal will happen. My guess is that Wayne is looking to redeem himself from the trade and is asking a lot for Dunn. Nothing wrong with that, of course. It was reported that he asked the Angels for 2 major leaguers and a top prospect. Again, no problem with asking. I think it's going to be difficult to convince another club to give up that much for a rent-a-bat. Dunn's defense is another thing that will drive down his trade value.

Falls City Beer
06-23-2007, 04:07 PM
The Twins are 5.5 out of the WC right now with three teams ahead of them which is a huge hole to have to climb out of... I'm sure the Twins would listen if Morlan's name was brought up but any conversation that contains Garza and in it really over estimates Dunn's trade value Garza's poor attitude notwithstanding.

Scott Baker's name seems much more realistic to me in relation to a Dunn trade.

Scott Baker is worthless.

I agree that the Twins are likely out of it, but I don't know--that would be a pretty soiled white flag to raise in front of your fans if you didn't go for it. Dunn for Garza straight up would be fair for a team like the Twins who desperately need a difference-making bat like Dunn's.

OnBaseMachine
06-23-2007, 04:07 PM
Fine. The Twins can continue getting knocked out in the first round then if they were to only offer Baker for Dunn. Adam Dunn is worth every bit of Matt Garza. 27-year old players with a .930 OPS don't grow on trees.

jojo
06-23-2007, 04:25 PM
Fine. The Twins can continue getting knocked out in the first round then if they were to only offer Baker for Dunn. Adam Dunn is worth every bit of Matt Garza. 27-year old players with a .930 OPS don't grow on trees.

Thats the whole point....what first round? Three months of Dunn on a team with questionable playoff chances isn't worth 6 yrs of a power arm with a high ceiling. I'm not convinced in today's era, that any team would trade such a near ready arm even if getting Dunn guaranteed the wild card. Without knowing the outcome, thats a really risky trade. The Twins were willing to keep Garza in the minors to work on his change even though they knew their backend of the rotation made it less likely they'd make the playoffs. I'm not sure why they would reverse course now unless they know something about Garza that dramatically lowers his ceiling.

Jpup
06-23-2007, 04:32 PM
no way I trade Dunn for Garza, no way.

Spitball
06-23-2007, 04:47 PM
Fine. The Twins can continue getting knocked out in the first round then if they were to only offer Baker for Dunn. Adam Dunn is worth every bit of Matt Garza. 27-year old players with a .930 OPS don't grow on trees.

And neither do young starting pitchers of Garza's ilk. Actually, last time I checked, Dunn ranked about 24th in OPS in the majors, so they might not be on trees, but they are out there.

Dunn makes 10 million and can be a free agent next season. Garza is a young starting pitcher who makes very little money and was just selected to represent the Twins in the Futures All-Star Game. Thursday night, he pitched a gem (4 hits, no runs, and 8 K's in seven innings). The Twins have proven they are not foolish enough to trade young, talented pitchers for rent-a-slugger type players. Last year they wouldn't consider either Garza or Slowley for Soriano. Also, this is a team that has tried starters like Sidney Ponson and Ramon Ortiz as starters and has lost Radke and Liriano while the jury is still out on Perkins and Baker. What makes you think they might trade a Garza starting pitcher type prospect for part of a season of 930 OPS?

If the Reds were 5.5 games back this year, would you trade Homer Bailey for a Dunn-type player?

Falls City Beer
06-23-2007, 04:52 PM
If the Reds were 5.5 games back this year, would you trade Homer Bailey for a Dunn-type player?

Yes. That is, of course, if the Reds had the same organizational pitching depth that the Twins do (both MLB and minors) and the Reds had zilch power.

This isn't math. This is context.

The Twins have played it safe for the last several seasons and they've either missed the playoffs or been first-round exits in each case. Greatness costs. And while the Twins have solid depth in pitching, they don't have a difference-making, playoff-ready ace in the wings on a par with Santana anytime soon; that is, the likely window of a Santana/Liriano set-up is closing fast. I'd be trying to squeeze out as many playoff runs with Santana as I possibly could. Like a Rijo, he can carry a playoff series virtually by himself.

The Twins would be crazy to punt this season. The only thing that ever waits is mediocrity.

jojo
06-23-2007, 04:59 PM
If the Reds were 5.5 games back this year, would you trade Homer Bailey for a Dunn-type player?

Of course not even if the Reds had the same organizational pitching depth that the Twins do (both MLB and minors) and the Reds had zilch power.

OnBaseMachine
06-23-2007, 05:07 PM
What makes you think they might trade a Garza starting pitcher type prospect for part of a season of 930 OPS?


The fact that he basically blasted the organization for not calling him up? That, and the fact that the Twins need another big bat to go along with Mauer and Morneau.

Falls City Beer
06-23-2007, 05:08 PM
The Twins' offense sucks mightily; I think they'd want to extend Dunn. And they'd be wise to.

But this discussion is moot; they won't trade for Dunn, they'll miss the playoffs and they'll be scratching their heads again this time next season as Dombrowski and Shapiro will have aggressively outmaneuvered them once again.

Spitball
06-23-2007, 06:01 PM
The fact that he basically blasted the organization for not calling him up?

Uh...Unless the Twins are a super sensitive group, I don't believe that is grounds for exile.


That, and the fact that the Twins need another big bat to go along with Mauer and Morneau.

Pennants are won with pitching, and they need arms in their rotation more. They have tried Ortiz, Ponson, and current rotation member Scott Baker has an ERA of almost 7. They will not, and should not, trade a pitching prospect of Garza's ability for a few months of Dunn.

bucksfan2
06-23-2007, 06:08 PM
I thought it was odd that the Twins did everything in their power keep Garza down in the minors at the start of this season. If I remember correctly he pitched in Minnesota last year. They even tried Ponson as an alternative in order to keep Garza down. The fact of the matter is in order to get a good player at the deadline you need to give up a lot. Whether people in this city believe it or not Dunn does command some value on the trade market. Heck his terror last week could single handadily win a team a playoff series. The Twins are loaded on the pitching side with maybe their best pitcher out until next year. Garza is probably a little bit expendable becuase of Santana, Liriano, and Bonzer.

Mario-Rijo
06-23-2007, 06:54 PM
I would say yes, that the Twins would highly consider it. The best thing about Dunn being a potential FA after the season is that the Twins could potentially end up with a 1st round pick out of the deal. And likely no later than a 2nd rounder.

The Twins can do wonders with those picks.

Or they can go ahead and re-sign him if they choose and probably at a reasonable price seeing as how he will likely get a taste of the playoffs.

But I think if the Reds really want to get it done they could offer up a guy like Saarloos or EZ to sweeten the pot. Who could give them back a guy who could give them some solid innings at the back of the rotation in addition to getting their big bat that they need.

So I guess the question is would they do a Dunn, 1st or 2nd rounder and EZ/Saar/Dumatrait for Garza and Morlan?

marcshoe
06-23-2007, 07:02 PM
I've been dreading the perhaps inevitable Dunn trade, but if Garza came back, it would at least give me hope instead of contributing to the sensation that this team is floundering. This is one of the better possible outcomes.

Spitball
06-23-2007, 07:14 PM
I thought it was odd that the Twins did everything in their power keep Garza down in the minors at the start of this season. If I remember correctly he pitched in Minnesota last year. They even tried Ponson as an alternative in order to keep Garza down. The fact of the matter is in order to get a good player at the deadline you need to give up a lot. Whether people in this city believe it or not Dunn does command some value on the trade market. Heck his terror last week could single handadily win a team a playoff series. The Twins are loaded on the pitching side with maybe their best pitcher out until next year. Garza is probably a little bit expendable becuase of Santana, Liriano, and Bonzer.

Actually, after a strong start last Thursday, I understand Garza is close to being called up. A strong start against the Mets last week has bought Scott Baker a second chance, but if he continues to struggle, Garza will take his place in the Twins' rotation.

I don't believe this will be a sellers' market. The only way the Twins would be forced to give up a Garza type pitcher would be if there was a lot of competition for Dunn's services. With Teixiera and Dye, not to mention pitchers like Buehrle and Contreras, out there, I doubt they will be forced to ante up Garza type chips.

jojo
06-23-2007, 08:11 PM
I would say yes, that the Twins would highly consider it. The best thing about Dunn being a potential FA after the season is that the Twins could potentially end up with a 1st round pick out of the deal. And likely no later than a 2nd rounder.

The Twins can do wonders with those picks.

Or they can go ahead and re-sign him if they choose and probably at a reasonable price seeing as how he will likely get a taste of the playoffs.

But I think if the Reds really want to get it done they could offer up a guy like Saarloos or EZ to sweeten the pot. Who could give them back a guy who could give them some solid innings at the back of the rotation in addition to getting their big bat that they need.

So I guess the question is would they do a Dunn, 1st or 2nd rounder and EZ/Saar/Dumatrait for Garza and Morlan?

Minnesota would have to offer Dunn arbitratrion for the compensatory draft to kick in I believe. Since they may not be looking at a guy like Dunn for a long term solution (payroll issues), signing him long term doesn't seem likely and offering him arbitration would actually be a risk they might shy away from as well.

I wonder if the Reds can void his option and then offer him arbitration? This CBA stuff is kind of confusing. If they could and he accepted, the Reds might actually end up giving him a pay raise.

*****Snark alert*****
Given the pitching depth that the Twins have in their organisation, I seriously doubt they'd risk infecting their farm with the suckitude virus by introducing arms like EZ/Saar/Dumatrait to their system.

Mario-Rijo
06-23-2007, 08:13 PM
Minnesota would have to offer Dunn arbitratrion for the compensatory draft to kick in I believe. Since they may not be looking at a guy like Dunn for a long term solution (payroll issues), signing him long term doesn't seem likely and offering him arbitration would actually be a risk they might shy away from as well.

I wonder if the Reds can void his option and then offer him arbitration? This CBA stuff is kind of confusing. If they could and he accepted, the Reds might actually end up giving him a pay raise.

*****Snark alert*****
Given the pitching depth that the Twins have in their organisation, I seriously doubt they'd risk infecting their farm with the suckitude virus by introducing arms like EZ/Saar/Dumatrait to their system.

Can't be any worse than Ortiz and Ponson!

fearofpopvol1
06-23-2007, 09:20 PM
The Twins' offense sucks mightily; I think they'd want to extend Dunn. And they'd be wise to.

But this discussion is moot; they won't trade for Dunn, they'll miss the playoffs and they'll be scratching their heads again this time next season as Dombrowski and Shapiro will have aggressively outmaneuvered them once again.

Yep, I agree. Terry Ryan has proven that this is the route they wish to go every year.

Spitball
06-24-2007, 12:07 AM
Yep, I agree. Terry Ryan has proven that this is the route they wish to go every year.

Yet, despite their market, Terry Ryan has proven he can put a competitive team on the field year after year. Hmmm...could this be why he is running a professional baseball team, and we are simply second guessing on a computer forum?

fearofpopvol1
06-24-2007, 12:19 AM
Yet, despite their market, Terry Ryan has proven he can put a competitive team on the field year after year. Hmmm...could this be why he is running a professional baseball team, and we are simply second guessing on a computer forum?

No doubt he is great at doing that, but what I think FCB was saying (and I agree) is that he keeps being satisfied with just making the playoffs instead of actually making a run in them. The Twins consistently (at least by my estimation) have always been a player or two away from winning out in the AL. Instead of dealing one of their above average prospects, they continue to settle for being close instead of going for the home run.

Falls City Beer
06-24-2007, 09:04 AM
Yet, despite their market, Terry Ryan has proven he can put a competitive team on the field year after year. Hmmm...could this be why he is running a professional baseball team, and we are simply second guessing on a computer forum?

Depends on what your definition of "competitive" is. They aren't particularly competitive this season.

Krusty
06-24-2007, 09:26 AM
I said before Minnesota is the sleeper team for Dunn. This trade proposal......I say pull the trigger.

Krusty
06-24-2007, 09:32 AM
One other note.....most likely the Twins will lose CF Torri Hunter after this season. That is a big part of their limited offense they are losing. They acquire Dunn and sign him to a deal what they are paying Hunter now and they essentially replace Hunter's offense for the 2008 season.

I'm quite sure they would ask for a 72 hour window to discuss a contract extension for Dunn before pulling the trigger to a deal.

Highlifeman21
06-24-2007, 09:52 AM
One other note.....most likely the Twins will lose CF Torri Hunter after this season. That is a big part of their limited offense they are losing. They acquire Dunn and sign him to a deal what they are paying Hunter now and they essentially replace Hunter's offense for the 2008 season.

I'm quite sure they would ask for a 72 hour window to discuss a contract extension for Dunn before pulling the trigger to a deal.

Not only replace Hunter's offense, but vastly improve upon.

Hunter's stick vs. Dunn's stick? No contest.

Who plays CF for the Twins if they acquire Dunn and lose Hunter?

Spitball
06-24-2007, 02:56 PM
No doubt he is great at doing that, but what I think FCB was saying (and I agree) is that he keeps being satisfied with just making the playoffs instead of actually making a run in them. The Twins consistently (at least by my estimation) have always been a player or two away from winning out in the AL. Instead of dealing one of their above average prospects, they continue to settle for being close instead of going for the home run.

The Twins would be fools to deviate from their successful formula. They have managed to put a competent team on the field despite their market by spending wisely. They would handicap their budget by adding the large contract of an outfield/DH player while subtracting a very inexpensive starting pitcher.

Making the playoffs is the what all teams should aim to accomplish. Once there, anything can happen. The 2006 Cardinals were not the best team in baseball last year, but they were hot at the right time. The 2003 Marlins surprised everyone, especially the powerful Yankees.

Also, I'm not certain that adding a power hitter and the big contract that goes with him is the formula for success. The White Sox and Brewers have actually improved after parting ways with Carlos Lee, his big bat, and his big contract. Did the White Sox repeat as champions after adding Thome's big bat to their championship line-up? How about the 2002 Championship Angels who added Vlad Guerrero ? How many rings do Bonds, Sosa, Griffey, Rodriguez, Guerrero, and Thome have?

Teams like those in Oakland and Minnesota have built competitive teams year after year by spending wisely. Acquiring Dunn and his contract might help them make a run in the playoffs, but it would certainly hurt the successful plan they have used for years. They would be wiser to stay their course and hope for a hot streak at the right time, ala the 2006 Championship Cardinals.

fearofpopvol1
06-24-2007, 03:06 PM
The Twins would be fools to deviate from their successful formula. They have managed to put a competent team on the field despite their market by spending wisely. They would handicap their budget by adding the large contract of an outfield/DH player while subtracting a very inexpensive starting pitcher.

Making the playoffs is the what all teams should aim to accomplish. Once there, anything can happen. The 2006 Cardinals were not the best team in baseball last year, but they were hot at the right time. The 2003 Marlins surprised everyone, especially the powerful Yankees.

Also, I'm not certain that adding a power hitter and the big contract that goes with him is the formula for success. The White Sox and Brewers have actually improved after parting ways with Carlos Lee, his big bat, and his big contract. Did the White Sox repeat as champions after adding Thome's big bat to their championship line-up? How about the 2002 Championship Angels who added Vlad Guerrero ? How many rings do Bonds, Sosa, Griffey, Rodriguez, Guerrero, and Thome have?

Teams like those in Oakland and Minnesota have built competitive teams year after year by spending wisely. Acquiring Dunn and his contract might help them make a run in the playoffs, but it would certainly hurt the successful plan they have used for years. They would be wiser to stay their course and hope for a hot streak at the right time, ala the 2006 Championship Cardinals.

While there is truth to what you're saying, the formula has not garnered them a World Series appearence even and their core group of players are getting older and the current window is closing. In most of their playoff runs, they've been probably 1 player away from making it to the World Series. Why not take a risk on a good rental for once?

Falls City Beer
06-24-2007, 03:25 PM
Twins don't have an impact bat like Dunn anywhere in their minors. They're going to have to trade for offense to keep up with Detroit and Cleveland for the next decade, whether they want to or not. They can do it more cheaply than Dunn, true, but that can be pretty tricky and could very easily nickel-and-dime the franchise into obscurity (they aren't exactly known for their offensive acumen).

Or they can stanch too much offensive bleeding by adding a reasonably-priced impact bat like Dunn's.

Clinging jealously to one minor leaguer has sunk a team like the Twins more than once--I'm sure it will happen again.

Falls City Beer
06-24-2007, 03:34 PM
Not only replace Hunter's offense, but vastly improve upon.

Hunter's stick vs. Dunn's stick? No contest.

Who plays CF for the Twins if they acquire Dunn and lose Hunter?

I don't know--losing Hunter will leave a pretty gaping hole in their lineup.

It'll be down to two offensive players at that point: Mauer and Morneau (and Mauer's a catcher).

Spitball
06-24-2007, 04:00 PM
While there is truth to what you're saying, the formula has not garnered them a World Series appearence even and their core group of players are getting older and the current window is closing. In most of their playoff runs, they've been probably 1 player away from making it to the World Series. Why not take a risk on a good rental for once?

Without counting big budget teams from New York, Boston, or Los Angeles, when was the last deadline deal that resulted in a World Championship? I'm not saying there haven't been any, but I can't think of any recent difference makers. Maybe we can count Scott Rolen, but I can think of more recent deadline recent deals that I bet the GM's wish hadn't been completed, see Aaron Harang, Scott Kazmir, and Freddy Sanchez. Last year, the Rangers were 2.5 games out when they acquired Carlos Lee and then finished 13 games out.


They can do it more cheaply than Dunn, true...

I can agree with this. Carlos Pena is having a great year and might be available a package that wouldn't require Garza.

Falls City Beer
06-24-2007, 04:04 PM
Without counting big budget teams from New York, Boston, or Los Angeles, when was the last deadline deal that resulted in a World Championship? I'm not saying there haven't been any, but I can't think of any recent difference makers. Maybe we can count Scott Rolen, but I can think of more recent deadline recent deals that I bet the GM's wish hadn't been completed, see Aaron Harang, Scott Kazmir, and Freddy Sanchez. Last year, the Rangers were 2.5 games out when they acquired Carlos Lee and then finished 13 games out.



I can agree with this. Carlos Pena is having a great year and might be available a package that wouldn't require Garza.

My guess is that they couldn't get Pena at the deadline. Which defeats a good deal of the point.

But again, I agree the discussion is moot. Hunter will walk, they won't replace his bat with anything but stuff they can get conservatively with marginal prospects, and they'll underperform. All the while Santana moves yet another year closer to disappearing, Liriano's health remains a question mark....and the Twins' model will chug away to mediocrity.

mth123
06-24-2007, 04:18 PM
The Twins model is a myth IMO. They've done well, but they struck gold with Santana in Rule 5 and the Pierczynski trade netted Bonser, Nathan and Liriano. They've been living off the benefits of these moves for a while now. Kudos to them for those moves, but an organization can not be expected to continually acquire so much cheap talent in such a manner.

Its the same thing with WK in Cincy. Kudos for Hamilton and Phillips, but I don't think that a team should plan on such moves. Seeing how resources are routinely used is a more important reflection of a GM. The "Twins" model seems to rely a lot on finding nuggets for nothing. And while I love it when it happens, its not a plan for running a franchise IMO.

Highlifeman21
06-24-2007, 05:58 PM
I don't know--losing Hunter will leave a pretty gaping hole in their lineup.

It'll be down to two offensive players at that point: Mauer and Morneau (and Mauer's a catcher).

Maybe I worded my reply incorrectly, but I said Dunn would be an offensive upgrade over Hunter.

The only ? would be who plays CF if you replaced Hunter with Dunn in Minnesota.

Spitball
06-24-2007, 07:25 PM
The Twins model is a myth IMO. They've done well, but they struck gold with Santana in Rule 5 and the Pierczynski trade netted Bonser, Nathan and Liriano. They've been living off the benefits of these moves for a while now. Kudos to them for those moves, but an organization can not be expected to continually acquire so much cheap talent in such a manner.

Its the same thing with WK in Cincy. Kudos for Hamilton and Phillips, but I don't think that a team should plan on such moves. Seeing how resources are routinely used is a more important reflection of a GM. The "Twins" model seems to rely a lot on finding nuggets for nothing. And while I love it when it happens, its not a plan for running a franchise IMO.


I totally disagree. The Twins have averaged 90 wins for the last six seasons. That kind of consistencty can't really be attributed to lucky nugget hunting. They have won the tough AL Central four times in that span. They haven't been to the World Series in that period, but neither have the Braves, Mets, Dodgers, Indians, or A's. They have done this with one of the smallest payrolls in baseball. Last year they were 21st of thirty teams, and yet they were the winners of 96 games. If that is lucky nugget hunting, then at least it consistently builds 90 plus win teams that get to the playoffs.

Really, the Twins' plan has been to build the club through player development, and that is how they have managed to have 90 plus win teams with a low payroll. They have drafted position players like Hunter, Morneau, and Mauer and young pitchers like Garza, Perkins, Baker, and Slowley. They also have done really well with the nugget hunting, but that is only part of their successful run and not the focus nor method of their success.

mth123
06-24-2007, 07:31 PM
I totally disagree. The Twins have averaged 90 wins for the last six seasons. That kind of consistencty can't really be attributed to lucky nugget hunting. They have won the tough AL Central four times in that span. They haven't been to the World Series in that period, but neither have the Braves, Mets, Dodgers, Indians, or A's. They have done this with one of the smallest payrolls in baseball. Last year they were 21st of thirty teams, and yet they were the winners of 96 games. If that is lucky nugget hunting, then at least it consistently builds 90 plus win teams that get to the playoffs.

Really, the Twins' plan has been to build the club through player development, and that is how they have managed to have 90 plus win teams with a low payroll. They have drafted position players like Hunter, Morneau, and Mauer and young pitchers like Garza, Perkins, Baker, and Slowley. They also have done really well with the nugget hunting, but that is only part of their successful run and not the focus nor method of their success.

Well, I agree on the player development front and they have done a good job there, but w/o Santana and Nathan the last few years they would have struggled to finish .500 IMO and no one would be talking about a Twins model. Having those guys (and for fairly cheap $) made everything else work. It allowed them to let other guys go as they got expensive and save the dollars for other key spots.

Falls City Beer
06-24-2007, 08:28 PM
Simply put, the Twins succeed when they gamble, lose when they play it close to the vest. And they do both in about equal doses.

They're going to miss the postseason this year. Santana's on the way out soon. Hunter's gone next year. Where do they go from here? They're behind two teams that are pretty much light years ahead of them in terms of real production and minor league talent.

It's going to take more than Terry Ryan's hemming and hawing to leapfrog those two franchises going forward. In fact, the Twins may be facing their last playoff chase in a long while.

And they've got almost nothing to show for it.

Spitball
06-25-2007, 02:03 PM
Simply put, the Twins succeed when they gamble, lose when they play it close to the vest. And they do both in about equal doses.

They gamble but with measured and educated strategy. Scouting director Mike Radcliff is incredible. He knows how to evaluate and pick pitching and that is why the Twins have a six year run at averaging 90 wins a season while having one of the lowest payrolls in baseball.


They're going to miss the postseason this year.

I wouldn't bet on it. On this date last year, the Twins were in third place in the AL Central, eleven games behind the Tigers and eight and a half behind the White Sox. They finished first.



They're behind two teams that are pretty much light years ahead of them in terms of real production and minor league talent.

Can you qualify any of your claims? Before the draft, Baseball Prospectus ranked the Twins organization ahead of the Indians and Tigers. In a statistical analysis performed by Jeff Sackmann for Hardball Times, the Indians were ranked number two overall, the Twins number six, and the Tigers number seven. For pitching prospects, the Twins were ranked number one while the Indians and Tigers did not appear in the top six.

The Tigers definitely had the best draft of the three, but the Indians' draft was very poor. I wouldn't bet against Twins picks emerging. Ben Revere is a center fielder who could emerge as another Kirby Puckett.


It's going to take more than Terry Ryan's hemming and hawing to leapfrog those two franchises going forward. In fact, the Twins may be facing their last playoff chase in a long while.

And this is based on...what?


And they've got almost nothing to show for it.

Seven years of competitive baseball teams averaging 90 wins. They have four division titles and counting. They have a pitching rich farm system which is a nice indicator of their future. How many teams have that much to show their fans?

Falls City Beer
06-25-2007, 02:19 PM
I wouldn't bet on it. On this date last year, the Twins were in third place in the AL Central, eleven games behind the Tigers and eight and a half behind the White Sox. They finished first.

What are they going to do, bring Liriano back from the dead?

Pull Paul Molitor out of retirement?

Look at their personnel. They will not win the division this year. They may win the wild card, but I wouldnt' count on it.






Seven years of competitive baseball teams averaging 90 wins. They have four division titles and counting. They have a pitching rich farm system which is a nice indicator of their future. How many teams have that much to show their fans?

With all respect to Prospectus's rankings, they tend to weigh prospects very far away from the majors as the same animal as a finished product like Andrew Miller; they protest that they don't do that, but they do too often for my tastes. There isn't a Verlander or a Miller anywhere in the Twins' system--maybe they have nice quantities of high-ceiling, low production arms (which is how I see it). Not even Garza touches those Olympian heights, as he projects more as a Harang than either of the Tigers' ubermenschs.

But this still misses the point that you need offense in addition to pitching--you may not need it as badly as pitching, but you have to have it, particularly in the AL Central, a division looking to become perhaps the toughest in baseball--or at least as tough as the AL East.

Aronchis
06-25-2007, 02:56 PM
The fact is, the Twins have Bonser,Perkins,Slowey,Baker and Garza. They need a Adam Dunn type bat. Move a arm and another prospect for him. Garza and SS would probably get it done.

In 2008 you would have Dunn,Mauer,Morneau,Santana and Nathan, you have a championship core with a number of young pitchers ready to come into their own. Ryan's gunshy attitude has messed the Twins up IMO.

Spitball
06-25-2007, 03:21 PM
Look at their personnel. They will not win the division this year. They may win the wild card, but I wouldnt' count on it.

You throw all these opinions out there as if they are facts and never qualify any of them with any substance. They basically have the same players as last year, and that includes an MVP, a batting champion, a multi-time gold glover, a nice bullpen, and Santana. They took first place without Liriano last year and they could do it, in my opinion, again.


With all respect to Prospectus's rankings, they tend to weigh prospects very far away from the majors as the same animal as a finished product like Andrew Miller; they protest that they don't do that, but they do too often for my tastes.

What does this prove? Not really anything for this discussion because you simply dismissed the publication's rankings but haven't given any evidence that it effects the teams being discussed. You have simply thrown it out because it doesn't support your contention. Very convenient.


There isn't a Verlander or a Miller anywhere in the Twins' system--maybe they have nice quantities of high-ceiling, low production arms (which is how I see it). Not even Garza touches those Olympian heights, as he projects more as a Harang than either of the Tigers' ubermenschs.

Again, that's how you see it. The Twins will be getting Liriano back next year. His injury was an elbow and not a shoulder so he should recover nicely and return to pre-injury form. He is with Verlander and ahead of Miller. Add Garza, Slowey, Baker, and Perkins to the mix and the Twins have strength and depth.


But this still misses the point that you need offense in addition to pitching--you may not need it as badly as pitching, but you have to have it, particularly in the AL Central, a division looking to become perhaps the toughest in baseball--or at least as tough as the AL East.

I'll give you this one. The Twins do have Mauer, Morneau, Hunter, and Cuddyer but adding a bat would help. However, the Twins have averaged 90 wins a season for six years despite a tight payroll because they put a premium on young talented inexpensive pitching. They would be fools to gamble Garza on a rent a slugger.

RedLegSuperStar
06-25-2007, 03:46 PM
The fact is, the Twins have Bonser,Perkins,Slowey,Baker and Garza. They need a Adam Dunn type bat. Move a arm and another prospect for him. Garza and SS would probably get it done.

In 2008 you would have Dunn,Mauer,Morneau,Santana and Nathan, you have a championship core with a number of young pitchers ready to come into their own. Ryan's gunshy attitude has messed the Twins up IMO.

You forgot Liriano who should be ready next season as well..

Spitball
06-25-2007, 05:42 PM
Ryan's gunshy attitude has messed the Twins up IMO.

He hasn't messed up the Twins in my opinion. He has made them a perennial contender with a very low payroll. Pitching is the most important aspect of baseball, and starting pitching is the hardest thing to develop, trade for, and sign. Ryan has made young, inexpensive pitchers an important equation in the Twins blueprint for success. To continue averaging 90 wins a season, he can't start trading away young pitchers with the upside of Garza.

The Twins and the A's have been the most successful low budget teams. Both seem to contend but are criticized for not advancing through the playoffs. I think that is unfair because so many more teams don't even make the playoffs or even contend. Both teams have followed plans that have allowed them to contend and that is very important because once in the playoffs anything can happen. The Marlins and last year's Cardinals seemed to have proven that.

Ryan is being criticized here for not trading young pitching to acquire an important component for his team that might push them to...what?...a championship. Look at the Billy Beane model for trading young pitchers for an important component. Beane has traded both Jeremy Bonderman and Aaron Harang in mid-season deals designed to push his team to a championship. Bully for him! But, he hasn't won a championship with those moves yet, and he has lost two very good and relatively inexpensive young pitchers. Can you imagine the A's today with a rotation of Dan Haren, Rich Harden, Jeremy Bonderman, Aaron Harang, and Joe Blanton??? Beane still hasn't won a championship despite having the gonads to trade young pitchers, and no one comes on the board and says Beane messed up the A's. I guess I just don't see it.

Mario-Rijo
06-25-2007, 06:00 PM
If either team would do it, I would think a guy who better suits them would be Jermaine Dye. Although he hasn't played well this year, that may actually help them acquire him w/o giving up much. Especially since he walks at the end of the season. But he does know the division and he is a better RH bat than anyone they currently have.

Dunn would help them but IMO Dye (if he comes around) helps them more.

RedsManRick
06-25-2007, 06:46 PM
You really cannot separate the "look what I found" moves from the system which allows for them. It's like saying if you take away that 1 winning lottery ticket, your average winnings on the other 9 stink. Of course they do. It's about buying 10 to get 1 winner. Those "lucky wins" are legitimately part of the equation. Can you depend on any one risk working out? Of course not. However, a system of taking certain calculated risks will generally work out. The key is taking the right ones and not screwing up too many of the big decisions.

The A's missed a few times too. The traded for Jason Kendall. They got basically nothing for Tim Hudson. Guillen for Harang and Valentine didn't work out so well. But in the course, they've also developed Jason Giambi, Miguel Tejada, Eric Chavez, and Nick Swisher. They've got a solid bullpen built cheaply.

There will be ups and downs. There will be hits and misses with moves. But a process which allows for the trading away of good aging talent to restock (Mulder/Hudson), calculated limited risks with veterans (Frank Thomas), the willingness to make low risk high reward moves like Jack Cust, and most importantly, the willingness to invest money in THE RIGHT core of players actually worth the money will produce continual above average teams.

The Twins and A's probably won't win 100 games. However, if you can maintain a +.500 team, then you are positioned to make a run every year. Sometimes things will gel and you can win the division or get the wild card. Sometimes they won't and you'll only win 84-85 games. There will always be specific deals that you "can't count on"; but you have to. The good teams do make those deals and they make them repeatedly. They miss on them too. But they win enough of them to keep their heads above water. Maybe you won't get another Johan Santana or Frank Thomas, but the system gives you enough flexibility to find value wherever you can get it.

When the A's could find value in OBP, they did it. When they could find value in defensive efficiency, they did it.


One of the things the Twins and A's have both done well is not screwing up too many of their big financial commitments. The Twins have given big money to Brad Radke and Torii Hunter. They passed on giving big money to Chuck Knoblauch, Eric Milton, Christian Guzman, and Matt Lawton. The A's didn't give big money to Hudson, Mulder, Giambi, Tejada.