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View Full Version : Rosenthal: Reds might not trade Dunn until next year



GriffeyFan
06-24-2007, 01:23 PM
One rival general manager suggests that the Reds keep left fielder Adam Dunn, exercise his $13 million option and make him this year's Gary Sheffield. The Yankees exercised Sheffield's $13 million option last off-season and traded him to the Tigers for three pitching prospects. Dunn, 28, is 10 years younger than Sheffield. By waiting to trade him until the off-season, the Reds could involve more clubs. Then again, the demand for Dunn's power could get the Reds the deal they want before the July 31 non-waiver deadline . . .

Lot's of trade rumors in this column...good read
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/6949304?CMP=OTC-K9B140813162&ATT=49

Highlifeman21
06-24-2007, 01:31 PM
Or they could just exercise the option, and build around him, rather than most likely get a weak return via trade.

Just a thought.

RedEye
06-24-2007, 01:35 PM
Or they could just exercise the option, and build around him, rather than most likely get a weak return via trade.

Just a thought.

I second that emotion.

Joseph
06-24-2007, 01:42 PM
I think if they exercise the option, he can't be traded until June 15th per a clause, unless thats been proven untrue.

Matt700wlw
06-24-2007, 02:21 PM
I don't see why they would want to pay him $13 million....of course, I don't want to see him walk for nothing either...

That's a tough one...

mth123
06-24-2007, 02:55 PM
I don't see why they would want to pay him $13 million

Because guys who create runs like he does cost that much. It would cost more than $13 Million to get a replacement who does less.

Matt700wlw
06-24-2007, 02:57 PM
Because guys who create runs like he does cost that much. It would cost more than $13 Million to get a replacement who does less.

His strike outs and his poor defense don't fit in Krivsky's "pitching and defense" mantra.

That $13 Million can be used for pitching...


(of course, now that I said that, I'm not sure what strike outs have to do with defense :p:)

fearofpopvol1
06-24-2007, 03:04 PM
I just don't see Dunn being in the Reds long term picture, especially with his pricetag. I don't know if it's better to trade him now or later, but I would think his value right now is at it's highest (especially since his batting average is higher than normal). Of course you run the risk of injury or other problems. I think for the right offer, you trade him this year.

mth123
06-24-2007, 03:15 PM
His strike outs and his poor defense don't fit in Krivsky's "pitching and defense" mantra.

That $13 Million can be used for pitching...


(of course, now that I said that, I'm not sure what strike outs have to do with defense :p:)

The Reds already have 4 rotation spots set and have $13.2 Million coming free from Milton/Lohse. No need to trade Dunn to get pitching. Just need to sign one good one with the cash being wasted on crummy ones.

Highlifeman21
06-24-2007, 03:17 PM
His strike outs and his poor defense don't fit in Krivsky's "pitching and defense" mantra.

That $13 Million can be used for pitching...


(of course, now that I said that, I'm not sure what strike outs have to do with defense :p:)

We better hope that for $13 Million, we get pitching that leads to a team ERA under 4, b/c with Dunn out of the lineup, I can't imagine this team scoring more than 4 R/Game.

$13 Million is a bargain for Adam Dunn.

Krivsky's only move to suggest he really believes in the whole "pitching and defense" nonsense is Alex Gonzalez. I've seen him do nothing to successfully address the pitching part of that equation.

Pony up the bucks to pay Adam Dunn. We won't replace his offense once he's gone.

Matt700wlw
06-24-2007, 03:17 PM
The Reds already have 4 rotation spots set and have $13.2 Million coming free from Milton/Lohse. No need to trade Dunn to get pitching. Just need to sign one good one with the cash being wasted on crummy ones.

I'd say they have 3 set....I'm still up in the air about Belisle.

I think we're all concerned about Arroyo, but I think, at some point, whether it's after a DL stint or whatever, he'll come around.

Highlifeman21
06-24-2007, 03:20 PM
I'd say they have 3 set....I'm still up in the air about Belisle.

I think we're all concerned about Arroyo, but I think, at some point, whether it's after a DL stint or whatever, he'll come around.

Maybe he shouldn't have cancelled his upcoming concert(s). Go on the DL, play some guitar, give that abused right arm some rest.

Clear the mind.

Heal the body.

Matt700wlw
06-24-2007, 03:21 PM
Maybe he shouldn't have cancelled his upcoming concert(s). Go on the DL, play some guitar, give that abused right arm some rest.

Clear the mind.

Heal the body.

Doesn't he strum with the right arm? That's not good on the elbow and wrist :)

Highlifeman21
06-24-2007, 03:24 PM
Doesn't he strum with the right arm? That's not good on the elbow and wrist :)

Neither are 115+ pitch outings.

If anything, Narron's potentially ruined Arroyo's guitar career, if not his pitching career.

harangatang
06-24-2007, 03:29 PM
It seems like Rosenthal favors covering the Reds. Everytime something comes up it seems anymore that we here it from him instead of local sources such as C. Trent, Fay, or Hal. Anyway, I think the Reds would be smart hanging on to Dunn even with a $13 million salary. If the Reds had someone down in the minors that was ready today to replace him or I felt Krivsky could make an adequate trade things may be different. But unfortunately neither one is an option so in my mind the Reds might else well keep a proven commodity.

mth123
06-24-2007, 04:01 PM
Maybe he shouldn't have cancelled his upcoming concert(s). Go on the DL, play some guitar, give that abused right arm some rest.

Clear the mind.

Heal the body.

I seriously thought the same exact thing. I didn't post because I thought it wouldn't be well received. Cancelling the concert and continuing the pitching is the wrong plan. Cancel the pitching for a while and let him do what he wants in his time away.

edabbs44
06-24-2007, 04:21 PM
We better hope that for $13 Million, we get pitching that leads to a team ERA under 4, b/c with Dunn out of the lineup, I can't imagine this team scoring more than 4 R/Game.

$13 Million is a bargain for Adam Dunn.

Krivsky's only move to suggest he really believes in the whole "pitching and defense" nonsense is Alex Gonzalez. I've seen him do nothing to successfully address the pitching part of that equation.

Pony up the bucks to pay Adam Dunn. We won't replace his offense once he's gone.

Keeping Dunn will keep this team near the cellar.

Now before everyone starts going nuts with their sabermetric calculators ,what I am saying is that the way this team is currently constructed they are not going to be winning anything for the next 2-3 years. That is, of course, unless Bob drops $100 million into free agency. This team has Dunn right now and they are tied for DEAD LAST in the majors.

Dunn will not be here when this team is able to right the ship. Neither will Gonzalez, Griffey and a host of others. So start building for that 3, 5 or 10 year plan. I'm not advocating dumping them for nothing, but if Wayne can get some good young talent, there is no reason to be wasting millions upon millions of dollars on these guys to have the worst record in baseball.

Yep...THE WORST RECORD IN BASEBALL apparently costs $70 million. Think about it.

Wheelhouse
06-24-2007, 04:24 PM
Or they could just exercise the option, and build around him, rather than most likely get a weak return via trade.

Just a thought.

Why would they get a weak return?

KronoRed
06-24-2007, 04:30 PM
Or they could just exercise the option, and build around him, rather than most likely get a weak return via trade.

Just a thought.

That's too easy, we might get some BP arms for him, that's what this team is missing.

Highlifeman21
06-24-2007, 04:32 PM
Keeping Dunn will keep this team near the cellar.

Now before everyone starts going nuts with their sabermetric calculators ,what I am saying is that the way this team is currently constructed they are not going to be winning anything for the next 2-3 years. That is, of course, unless Bob drops $100 million into free agency. This team has Dunn right now and they are tied for DEAD LAST in the majors.

Dunn will not be here when this team is able to right the ship. Neither will Gonzalez, Griffey and a host of others. So start building for that 3, 5 or 10 year plan. I'm not advocating dumping them for nothing, but if Wayne can get some good young talent, there is no reason to be wasting millions upon millions of dollars on these guys to have the worst record in baseball.

Yep...THE WORST RECORD IN BASEBALL apparently costs $70 million. Think about it.

Dunn is not why this team is losing. This team would be even worse without Dunn.

This team desperately needs both offense and pitching, quite the shopping list. Sacrificing offense for the sake of pitching means your pitching better be some of the best in the business, or else you've only even more so upset the balance between offense and pitching. A great offense can more often than not mask sub par pitching, while great pitching struggles to offset sub par offense. Right now, we're not scoring enough and letting in far too many. Subtract Dunn, and we're scoring drastically less, and the pitching has to probably prevent at least 1 more run per game.

Highlifeman21
06-24-2007, 04:34 PM
Why would they get a weak return?

What do you honestly think Dunn will fetch via trade?

If we're looking to get pitching to help the 2009 and beyond picture, then we need a top tier arm. How many of us truly think we'll get a top tier arm for Dunn?

Based on what Krivsky got for Kearns and Lopez in the same deal, I have zero hope we'll get anything but a weak return via trade for Dunn.

traderumor
06-24-2007, 04:36 PM
What do you honestly think Dunn will fetch via trade?

If we're looking to get pitching to help the 2009 and beyond picture, then we need a top tier arm. How many of us truly think we'll get a top tier arm for Dunn?

Based on what Krivsky got for Kearns and Lopez in the same deal, I have zero hope we'll get anything but a weak return via trade for Dunn.

So if he can't trade, what makes you think he will be able to "build around him?"

Matt700wlw
06-24-2007, 04:37 PM
Dunn is not why this team is losing. This team would be even worse without Dunn.
.

This team couldn't get much worse.

Not that that is on Dunn either...

RANDY IN INDY
06-24-2007, 04:39 PM
So if he can't trade, what makes you think he will be able to "build around him?"

I'm not getting that one either. If Dunn is the end all player to build around, why wouldn't other teams be willing to give up some really good talent to do just that?

Falls City Beer
06-24-2007, 04:40 PM
So if he can't trade, what makes you think he will be able to "build around him?"

I just want to take the remote away from the baby before I'm forced to watch more "Full House."

It's why I voted "fire Krivsky" now.

Matt700wlw
06-24-2007, 04:43 PM
I just want to take the remote away from the baby before I'm forced to watch more "Full House."

It's why I voted "fire Krivsky" now.

I think it's still too soon to fire Krivsky...but that's just me. My patience is wearing thin, but I'm willing to give him a bit more time.

Who do you suggest replace him? And don't give me the "anybody could be better than him" routine...

Raisor
06-24-2007, 04:46 PM
Who do you suggest replace him? And don't give me the "anybody could be better than him" routine...


I'd hire Depo in a second.

Somewhere there's a progressive thinking assistant-GM just waiting for a(nother) shot.

Matt700wlw
06-24-2007, 04:47 PM
I'd hire Depo in a second.

Somewhere there's a progressive thinking assistant-GM just waiting for a(nother) shot.

I forgot he was out there....I could live with that.

Falls City Beer
06-24-2007, 04:47 PM
Who do you suggest replace him? And don't give me the "anybody could be better than him" routine...

Honestly, I'd wager there are a handful of people currently in the FO who could do just as good a job as Krivsky.

There are a number of candidates that could be pursued with great vigor and Cast's money. The trouble is that this organization will likely never be a big "numbers" organization; the best they could hope for would be to find someone in the Brian Sabean mold (a shrewd trader and brilliant minor league architect). So I'd look at some of his understudies if not someone like a Shapiro/Dombrowski understudy (i.e. someone schooled in numbers).

Highlifeman21
06-24-2007, 05:13 PM
I forgot he was out there....I could live with that.

Depodesta works for San Diego.

There's no way we're getting him.

Matt700wlw
06-24-2007, 05:14 PM
Depodesta works for San Diego.

There's no way we're getting him.

He's a big market kind of guy

Mario-Rijo
06-24-2007, 05:33 PM
Honestly, I'd wager there are a handful of people currently in the FO who could do just as good a job as Krivsky.

There are a number of candidates that could be pursued with great vigor and Cast's money. The trouble is that this organization will likely never be a big "numbers" organization; the best they could hope for would be to find someone in the Brian Sabean mold (a shrewd trader and brilliant minor league architect). So I'd look at some of his understudies if not someone like a Shapiro/Dombrowski understudy (i.e. someone schooled in numbers).

Brian Sabean? Shrewd trader and brilliant minor league architect? Isn't he the one that punts 1st round picks, trades most of his prospects and employs more aging vets than Krivsky can ever dream of?

OnBaseMachine
06-24-2007, 05:40 PM
Brian Sabean traded Francisco Liriano, Boof Bonser, and Joe Nathan for AJ Pierzynski. If Sabean is a shrewd trader, then Wayne Krivsky is Branch Rickey.

Highlifeman21
06-24-2007, 06:04 PM
He's a big market kind of guy

Cincinnati is a big market?

Matt700wlw
06-24-2007, 06:07 PM
Cincinnati is a big market?

No...which is probably why this isn't a realistic option.

KronoRed
06-24-2007, 06:12 PM
Cincinnati is a big market?

I believe the proper word is..Tiny.

Falls City Beer
06-24-2007, 06:44 PM
Sabean's overseen 8 winning seasons in 10. He's fallen on hard times of late, but he's made some pretty excellent teams out of a middle of the road payroll.

And yes, without enumerating all his trades, Sabean, in general knows exactly what his team needs and usually gets it via trade and doesn't overpay for relievers but gets great production out youngsters in the pen. Basically, Sabean is the good version of Wayne Krivsky; not "numbers-based" enough for my tastes, but crafty enough to get what his team needs. Sure, he coughed up the farm for Pierzynski, but "good aggressiveness" will see moves like that happen; it's the cost of operating, and frankly, Sabean has earned a bum move like that one--Krivsky hasn't. Sabean isn't perfect, but someone like him would probably be the best the Reds could hope for.

And for the record, I truly dislike and find incurious the notion that "all veterans suck." Like anything else, there are good veterans and there are bad veterans--but veterans don't suck per se. In fact, they tend to be far more reliable than all but the faintest sliver of kids.

bucksfan2
06-24-2007, 07:04 PM
Dunn and his contract value is becoming a tired arguement if you ask me. He is getting paid what he deserves probably a little under his actual market value. Ideally you hope to develop players and have them while they are cheap and productive and either sign them long term or trade and replace them. The problem I foresee with Dunn is the reds do not have another player who they can replace him with who can even begin to produce at the rate that Dunn does. Players are easier to move when you have a minor leaguer waiting in the wings to take over. Dunn is not the reason this club is losing. If someone would have told you at the start of the year that his numbers would be what they are you would have taken them in a heart beat. In baseball reality $13 million doesn't buy you much. In terms of production $13M buys you an average starting OF and a #4 starter. It buys you the likes of Gary Matthews Jr. and Lohse. The reds also have a significant pay increase due to both Harang and Arroyo that are coming up next season. The dream of the reds chasing a big name free agent are off in the future. The best bet the reds have is to keep a good core together, develop younger players, and sign a free agent when you are a player away from being a serious contender. Trading Dunn would need to bring a lot in return or the trade would not be worth it. He isn't among the best players in the game but he is young, dourable, and produces more than most can.

Aronchis
06-24-2007, 07:11 PM
Sabean had steroid Bonds giving him some silly OPS for a few years. Take that away and things don't look so nice.

The Reds need some fresh blood in the Front Office but Cast has to change ways first.

Aronchis
06-24-2007, 07:14 PM
Dunn and his contract value is becoming a tired arguement if you ask me. He is getting paid what he deserves probably a little under his actual market value. Ideally you hope to develop players and have them while they are cheap and productive and either sign them long term or trade and replace them. The problem I foresee with Dunn is the reds do not have another player who they can replace him with who can even begin to produce at the rate that Dunn does. Players are easier to move when you have a minor leaguer waiting in the wings to take over. Dunn is not the reason this club is losing. If someone would have told you at the start of the year that his numbers would be what they are you would have taken them in a heart beat. In baseball reality $13 million doesn't buy you much. In terms of production $13M buys you an average starting OF and a #4 starter. It buys you the likes of Gary Matthews Jr. and Lohse. The reds also have a significant pay increase due to both Harang and Arroyo that are coming up next season. The dream of the reds chasing a big name free agent are off in the future. The best bet the reds have is to keep a good core together, develop younger players, and sign a free agent when you are a player away from being a serious contender. Trading Dunn would need to bring a lot in return or the trade would not be worth it. He isn't among the best players in the game but he is young, dourable, and produces more than most can.


If you aren't going to win with that "good core" anytime soon, they must be moved and that includes Harang before they get to old. Trading Dunn at 27 than 30 and Harang at 30 rather than 33 is not crazy. You cut costs and have more money to spend inside while you develope a younger more flexible core that can be blostered by FA's down the road.

Kc61
06-24-2007, 11:33 PM
Dunn and his contract value is becoming a tired arguement if you ask me. The problem I foresee with Dunn is the reds do not have another player who they can replace him with who can even begin to produce at the rate that Dunn does. Trading Dunn would need to bring a lot in return or the trade would not be worth it. He isn't among the best players in the game but he is young, dourable, and produces more than most can.

The Reds have two very good upcoming left handed hitters who can play Dunn's position and hopefully will produce. Votto and Bruce. No, you can't be sure they'll produce like Dunn. But you never know if a youngster will produce until you try him. Dunn plays a position where there is young depth.

His contract value is a key argument, even if "tired." Even if Dunn is worth $13 million, does it pay for a horrible team to pay an outfielder that kind of money? And Dunn has agreed to $13 million only for next year. How much after that? $15million per for 5 years? If the Reds are lucky? And how about his no-trade protection next year? Can you trade him at all then?

The team either needs to commit to Dunn long term or trade him for value -- now. If it doesn't commit to him long term, there is no reason to pay him $13 million next year on a one-year deal with trade restrictions.

Unless somebody sees a pennant race in 2008 as the likely scenario. I don't at this point.

bucksfan2
06-25-2007, 09:37 AM
The Reds have two very good upcoming left handed hitters who can play Dunn's position and hopefully will produce. Votto and Bruce. No, you can't be sure they'll produce like Dunn. But you never know if a youngster will produce until you try him. Dunn plays a position where there is young depth.

His contract value is a key argument, even if "tired." Even if Dunn is worth $13 million, does it pay for a horrible team to pay an outfielder that kind of money? And Dunn has agreed to $13 million only for next year. How much after that? $15million per for 5 years? If the Reds are lucky? And how about his no-trade protection next year? Can you trade him at all then?

The team either needs to commit to Dunn long term or trade him for value -- now. If it doesn't commit to him long term, there is no reason to pay him $13 million next year on a one-year deal with trade restrictions.

Unless somebody sees a pennant race in 2008 as the likely scenario. I don't at this point.

I think Votto's future is as a first baseman and only a first baseman. I have not seen him but reports say that he is not a good OF. The fastest Bruce will make it up here is about this time next year. I am not totaly against trading Dunn but you need to get a lot in return for Dunn. Without Dunn this lineup substitutes Dunn with the likes of Hopper and Freel. I do not think the defensive upgrade is going to be as big as fans think it is. Could this team contend in 2008, yes. I will continue to say this, talent wise they are as talented as any team in this division. The front office has to make some important decisions here shortly. They need to decide on both Jr and Dunn and which direction they are going to head.

Chip R
06-25-2007, 10:17 AM
His strike outs and his poor defense don't fit in Krivsky's "pitching and defense" mantra.

That $13 Million can be used for pitching...




Just like the money saved on Casey's salary was spent on "pitching"

bucksfan2
06-25-2007, 10:49 AM
Just like the money saved on Casey's salary was spent on "pitching"

They tried but apparently they didn't pony enough up to get Matt Morris away from San Fran.

Chip R
06-25-2007, 11:14 AM
They tried but apparently they didn't pony enough up to get Matt Morris away from San Fran.


And if they had there was still no guarantee he would have came here even if the Reds had offered him more. SF was a better pitcher's park and they had his old battery-mate Mike Matheny there as well.

Just because the Reds can free up $13M by letting Dunn go doesn't automatically mean someone like Mark Buehrle will sign with them.

Johnny Footstool
06-25-2007, 11:31 AM
A Gary Sheffield-equivalent return wouldn't put this team any closer to winning. It needs more than two good prospects to turn things around.

If you're trading Dunn because the team is rebuilding, then why bother keeping Harang and Arroyo? Why pay them millions of dollars to pitch for a lousy team?

If you're going to rebuild, do it. Set a 3 year time table, then trade away anyone who will be too expensive to keep 3 years from now. Bite the attendance bullet for 3 years, then reap the rewards when all those prospects you got for Harang, Arroyo, Griffey, and Dunn start to fulfill their potential.

37red
06-25-2007, 11:35 AM
Let's see, this is 2007, for 8 years we've all said that we need better pitching. Right now we probably have the best group of pitchers of those 8 years. As most people will agree good pitching beats good hitting. Good pitching also makes for less errors and makes the defense look better. I think we also have the best ownership we've had for a while and they've tried to build a better team but haven't turned the right screws.
We have a good line up and decent players over all but the games have gone down the tubes due to late inning pitching. Griffey is healthy for the first year, knock on wood, since we got him. There is little the owners can do unless they will invest more money into relief and closing pitching. I wish they would understand that a winning team will bring in lots of revenue to pay for the new tires. Trading Dunn is OK for me "if" the money was invested in young talented pitching. I think it's always a gamble to pick up young up starts or older players. If you spend your money on 30 year old tested players you pretty much know what you're getting but......, that's all you're getting. Taking risks and gambling with what chips you have is the only way to get more chips. I personally would trade Dunn while his value is the highest it can possibly be and gamble on some strong, young, 25 year old arms. More wins, more chips.

Falls City Beer
06-25-2007, 11:35 AM
If you're trading Dunn because the team is rebuilding, then why bother keeping Harang and Arroyo? Why pay them millions of dollars to pitch for a lousy team?

If you're going to rebuild, do it. Set a 3 year time table, then trade away anyone who will be too expensive to keep 3 years from now. Bite the attendance bullet for 3 years, then reap the rewards when all those prospects you got for Harang, Arroyo, Griffey, and Dunn start to fulfill their potential.

If you're a smart GM, you can trade for things you need without leveling the place a la Dresden. Timing is all.

37red
06-25-2007, 11:59 AM
Johnny is right. With the unbalanced team the Reds are right now the attendence is about as bad as it gets. The thing to do is start building the team you want. If you had a big money spender you could do what you'd like Falls City, but this ownership isn't going to do that. Just bringing up the young hot dog pitcher, win or lose, brought in more fans than nearly anytime all year. Set a finish date, get your materials on the job site and build a team.

Johnny Footstool
06-25-2007, 12:30 PM
If you're a smart GM, you can trade for things you need without leveling the place a la Dresden. Timing is all.

Termites have already weakened the infrastructure. Sometimes, a good firebombing is the cure.

Benihana
06-25-2007, 02:27 PM
Termites have already weakened the infrastructure. Sometimes, a good firebombing is the cure.

The funny thing is, I almost ALWAYS agree with this strategy when it comes to rebuilding. On this board alone I've called for the Reds to firebomb the place at least five different times since 2000.

Oddly enough, however, I think that now is NOT the time for that. This team is set for the 2008 and beyond at most positions. Moving Dunn would leave this team with the following holes (in order of biggest need):

A right-handed power-hitting corner OF
A #4 starter
2 good bullpen arms
A catcher

Realistically, that's it. I would argue that Griffey and Hamilton can hold down the other two outfield spots, with Freel as a supersub. Votto, BP, AGonz, and EdE have the infield nailed down for the next three years. Harang, Bailey, and Arroyo make up a formidable top three at the head of the rotation, and Belisle is a pretty good #5 starter. If the Reds get two more arms for the bullpen, to go along with some of the youngsters that have showed some promise, they are NOT THAT FAR OFF.

I would trade Dunn and/or Griffey in the next month if they can get a very decent return. I would hope to trade whichever garners the best return. If its Griff, than I would pick up Dunn's option and look to trade him next year if he won't resign at <$14 MM per. Trade Lohse, Hatteberg, and Weathers for the best return they can get. Other than that, no need to blow it all up, we finally have 4/5 of a solid rotation.

flyer85
06-25-2007, 02:44 PM
If you're going to rebuild, do it. Set a 3 year time table, then trade away anyone who will be too expensive to keep 3 years from now. Bite the attendance bullet for 3 years, then reap the rewards when all those prospects you got for Harang, Arroyo, Griffey, and Dunn start to fulfill their potential.that should have been the mantra six years ago. However, I have not seen an inclination from any regime(including the current one) to do just that. Instead they just stumble around in the forest year after year with no long term plan on how to find their way out.

Heath
06-25-2007, 03:42 PM
This thread had me stopped at Rosenthal.

WVPacman
06-25-2007, 05:02 PM
Or they could just exercise the option, and build around him, rather than most likely get a weak return via trade.

Just a thought.


Exactly!!! Trading him would be a monster mistake b/c we WON'T get nothing good in return.Keep him and build around him!!!!!!!!

mth123
06-25-2007, 06:26 PM
The funny thing is, I almost ALWAYS agree with this strategy when it comes to rebuilding. On this board alone I've called for the Reds to firebomb the place at least five different times since 2000.

Oddly enough, however, I think that now is NOT the time for that. This team is set for the 2008 and beyond at most positions. Moving Dunn would leave this team with the following holes (in order of biggest need):

A right-handed power-hitting corner OF
A #4 starter
2 good bullpen arms
A catcher

Realistically, that's it. I would argue that Griffey and Hamilton can hold down the other two outfield spots, with Freel as a supersub. Votto, BP, AGonz, and EdE have the infield nailed down for the next three years. Harang, Bailey, and Arroyo make up a formidable top three at the head of the rotation, and Belisle is a pretty good #5 starter. If the Reds get two more arms for the bullpen, to go along with some of the youngsters that have showed some promise, they are NOT THAT FAR OFF.

I would trade Dunn and/or Griffey in the next month if they can get a very decent return. I would hope to trade whichever garners the best return. If its Griff, than I would pick up Dunn's option and look to trade him next year if he won't resign at <$14 MM per. Trade Lohse, Hatteberg, and Weathers for the best return they can get. Other than that, no need to blow it all up, we finally have 4/5 of a solid rotation.

pretty much agree except I'd trade Griffey and keep Dunn and not worry about the Corner OF (Bruce is coming). Only change I'd make is that I'd go for a better caliber starter and Catcher would only be a target if some one cheaper who can free the resources being allocated to Ross. I'd do the same with SS spot.

redsmetz
06-25-2007, 07:56 PM
pretty much agree except I'd trade Griffey and keep Dunn and not worry about the Corner OF (Bruce is coming). Only change I'd make is that I'd go for a better caliber starter and Catcher would only be a target if some one cheaper who can free the resources being allocated to Ross. I'd do the same with SS spot.

I think that's the irony (and great frustration) of this team - it really isn't that far off. It's what makes baseball so sweet, and yet, so maddening too!

Mario-Rijo
06-25-2007, 09:00 PM
The funny thing is, I almost ALWAYS agree with this strategy when it comes to rebuilding. On this board alone I've called for the Reds to firebomb the place at least five different times since 2000.

Oddly enough, however, I think that now is NOT the time for that. This team is set for the 2008 and beyond at most positions. Moving Dunn would leave this team with the following holes (in order of biggest need):

A right-handed power-hitting corner OF
A #4 starter
2 good bullpen arms
A catcher

Realistically, that's it. I would argue that Griffey and Hamilton can hold down the other two outfield spots, with Freel as a supersub. Votto, BP, AGonz, and EdE have the infield nailed down for the next three years. Harang, Bailey, and Arroyo make up a formidable top three at the head of the rotation, and Belisle is a pretty good #5 starter. If the Reds get two more arms for the bullpen, to go along with some of the youngsters that have showed some promise, they are NOT THAT FAR OFF.

I would trade Dunn and/or Griffey in the next month if they can get a very decent return. I would hope to trade whichever garners the best return. If its Griff, than I would pick up Dunn's option and look to trade him next year if he won't resign at <$14 MM per. Trade Lohse, Hatteberg, and Weathers for the best return they can get. Other than that, no need to blow it all up, we finally have 4/5 of a solid rotation.

This is pretty much how I feel as well, in fact if that's how it all went down I would almost be beside myself with anticipation.

Check out this potential team in say '09

2B Brandon Phillips
CF Josh Hamilton
LF Adam Dunn
3B Edwin Encarnacion
RF Jay Bruce
1B Joey Votto
SS Alex Gonzales
C Miguel Perez (I'm hoping he'll figure it out soon)

Homer Bailey
Aaron Harang
Bronson Arroyo
Matt Belisle
Sean Watson

Cueto
Bray
Coutlangus
Coffey/Medlock/Gardner??
Salmon
Burton
McBeth

Up and comers at that point should be:
Chris Valaika (MI/3B)
Todd Frazier (CIF/COF)
Justin Turner (MI)
Pedro Viola (LHRP)
Darryl Thompson (RHSP)
Stubbs (I know I kinda doubt it, but I have a gleam of hope for him) (CF)
Travis Wood (maybe not, but again I hope so) (LHSP)
Paul Janish (again see above) (SS)



That's all w/o adding anyone via FA, if they p/u a SS,Catcher,Closer. You have a pretty daggone good and young team.

In fact I would start trying to identify a strong SS or Catcher candidate who will be a FA after '08. And a LH starter who would be a solid #3 ideally, who will also be your very strong #4. You may have to build your own Closer which is sorta what I think Krivsky has been trying to pry loose in a deal.

Redmachine2003
06-26-2007, 01:24 PM
What makes anyone think Dunn will have more value next year? He is going to make more money. He will still be a freeagent at the end of the year. So this is just a bunch of PR crap to try and drive up his price for this year.

pedro
06-26-2007, 01:33 PM
What makes anyone think Dunn will have more value next year? He is going to make more money. He will still be a freeagent at the end of the year. So this is just a bunch of PR crap to try and drive up his price for this year.

He might not. But if you can't get good value for him now they might as well keep him. It's not like the Reds have a ready replacement for him.

fearofpopvol1
06-26-2007, 01:36 PM
This is pretty much how I feel as well, in fact if that's how it all went down I would almost be beside myself with anticipation.

Check out this potential team in say '09

2B Brandon Phillips
CF Josh Hamilton
LF Adam Dunn
3B Edwin Encarnacion
RF Jay Bruce
1B Joey Votto
SS Alex Gonzales
C Miguel Perez (I'm hoping he'll figure it out soon)

Homer Bailey
Aaron Harang
Bronson Arroyo
Matt Belisle
Sean Watson

Cueto
Bray
Coutlangus
Coffey/Medlock/Gardner??
Salmon
Burton
McBeth

Up and comers at that point should be:
Chris Valaika (MI/3B)
Todd Frazier (CIF/COF)
Justin Turner (MI)
Pedro Viola (LHRP)
Darryl Thompson (RHSP)
Stubbs (I know I kinda doubt it, but I have a gleam of hope for him) (CF)
Travis Wood (maybe not, but again I hope so) (LHSP)
Paul Janish (again see above) (SS)



That's all w/o adding anyone via FA, if they p/u a SS,Catcher,Closer. You have a pretty daggone good and young team.

In fact I would start trying to identify a strong SS or Catcher candidate who will be a FA after '08. And a LH starter who would be a solid #3 ideally, who will also be your very strong #4. You may have to build your own Closer which is sorta what I think Krivsky has been trying to pry loose in a deal.

I don't know about anyone else, but I'm really hoping that Cueto ends up being a starter...

Chip R
06-26-2007, 01:43 PM
What makes anyone think Dunn will have more value next year? He is going to make more money. He will still be a freeagent at the end of the year. So this is just a bunch of PR crap to try and drive up his price for this year.


They're just pure evil, aren't they?

OnBaseMachine
07-01-2007, 01:46 AM
The Padres went with the Barrett/Bradley acquisitions in part because the price on Adam Dunn was just too high. Wayne Krivsky could get more teams involved if he exercises Dunn's 2008 option and tries to trade him in the offseason, a la Gary Sheffield. However, unlike Sheff, Dunn has full no-trade protection until June 15th if the option is picked up. Then on June 15th it switches to a ten-team consent list of Dunn's choosing. The bottom line: the time to trade him is now.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

jojo
07-01-2007, 09:57 AM
The Padres went with the Barrett/Bradley acquisitions in part because the price on Adam Dunn was just too high. Wayne Krivsky could get more teams involved if he exercises Dunn's 2008 option and tries to trade him in the offseason, a la Gary Sheffield. However, unlike Sheff, Dunn has full no-trade protection until June 15th if the option is picked up. Then on June 15th it switches to a ten-team consent list of Dunn's choosing. The bottom line: the time to trade him is now.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

I want Dunn's agent! I think Dunn's contract basically makes it almost impossible for Krivsky to get a return in line with the expectations of most fans.

This one could be a real feather in Krivsky's cap if he pulls off a coup....