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View Full Version : The Awful 2007 Reds - By the Numbers



jmcclain19
06-25-2007, 02:57 AM
Not sure why I felt to compile all of this information in one spot. Maybe it's the starkness of just how awful Reds baseball is this season has finally set in.

All digits are as of June 24th

29-47 - .382 Winning Pct
Worst Overall Record in the National League
Worst Overall Record in Major League Baseball

Currently on pace for a 62-100 season

14-23 at Home
Worst Home Record in the National League
Worst Home Record in Major League Baseball

15-24 on the Road
2nd Worst Away Record in the National League

Pythag Record - 34-42 - Reds are playing 5 games under.

Lost 6 of 7 series in June
Lost 8 of 9 series in May

Team OBP - 23 of 30
Team AVG - 23 of 30
Team SLG - 6 of 30
Team OPS - 11 of 30
Team Runs - 14 of 30
Team ERA - 24 of 30
Team BAA - 24 of 30

4.63 Runs Per Game - 4th in the NL, 14th in MLB
5.16 Runs Allowed Per Game - 13th in the NL, 25th in MLB

Some Team Pitching Splits

Starters ERA - 20 of 30
Starters IP - 4 of 30
Bullpen ERA - 23 of 30
Bullpen IP - 21 of 30
Team ERA @ Home - 28 of 30
Team ERA @ Road - 13 of 30
Team ERA in April - 10 of 30
Team ERA in May - 30 of 30
Team ERA in June - 19 of 30

Overall - really not much of a glimmer of hope for the future.

WVRedsFan
06-25-2007, 03:39 AM
I hate to bring this up, but the sentiment around here and throughout Reds county seems to be Krivsky inherited a bad, bad team, so let's look at the roster:

Wayne's Boys:

Pitchers

Bronson Arroyo - 2-9 5.24 ERA
Kyle Lohse - 3-10 5.02 ERA
Marcus McBeth - reliever 5.68 ERA
Victor Santos - reliever 4.75 ERA
Mike Stanton - reliever 4.44 ERA
Gary Majewski - reliever 15.78 ERA
Kirk Saarloos - reliever 7.04 ERA


Position Players

Chad Moeller - .195 1 HR 2 RBI
David Ross - .208 11 HR 28 RBI
Juan Castro - .173 0 HR 4 RBI

We'll stop here and ponder why he thought any of these guys could do anything at the MLB level. Ross had a career year last year and a career day yesterday, but other than that, batting near the interstate is the rule. Castro is fodder and having three catchers and only 4 outfielders is simply moronic.

Jeff Conine - .287 4 HR 23 RBI
Alex Gonzales - .263 12 HR 35 RBI
Scott Hatteberg-.292 7 HR 23 RBI
Brandon Phillips -.277 14 HR 38 RBI
Josh Hamilton -.272 11 HR 24 RBI

The pitching judgment of Krivsky has been simply alarming and horrible. You can take Arroyo out of that group (since I feel Narron has worn him out) and it gets worse. Whatever made Krivsky think that Majewski was worth anything even if he didn't know about the shots (which is his fault totally if he did not--either way, it's on his watch).

After Hatteberg, Phillips and Hamilton, all you see is low averages and low productivity. And even with Hamilton and Hatteberg, the hand-extended manager's mis-use of the batting order makes them less than productive.

How much of that is the management of Jerry Narron and how much is the fault of Krivsky's lack of judging talent? Time will tell, but it doesn't look good now.

Bob Casetllini took a team that was mediocre at best and hired a GM to make it better (all the while proclaiming we were going to contend). He has not.

I repeat, even compared to the mess the 1982 team was, this is the worst team I've ever seen wear a Reds uniform. Bar none.

dfs
06-25-2007, 11:17 AM
I repeat, even compared to the mess the 1982 team was, this is the worst team I've ever seen wear a Reds uniform. Bar none.

You said this earlier in the seaon and IIRC I argued with you a bit about it.

I'm not gonna do that now.

One of the big arguments I had for keeping Narron around was the jump the team got when Miley left. I thought these guys were going to "play for Narron." Looks like that was just wishful thinking on my part.

There IS talent on the roster, but decisions have to be made. I'm not sure if I want the current regime making those decisions.

Falls City Beer
06-25-2007, 11:22 AM
When people tell me to have patience with Wayne's "plan," that sometimes methods take a while to jell, I feel as though I'm being told to watch Ishtar a second or third time to fully appreciate its genius.

westofyou
06-25-2007, 11:29 AM
When people tell me to have patience with Wayne's "plan," that sometimes methods take a while to jell, I feel as though I'm being told to watch Ishtar a second or third time to fully appreciate its genius.

Really?

When I hear side handed insults like that then I have my own special feelings too.

Falls City Beer
06-25-2007, 11:32 AM
Really?

When I hear side handed insults like that then I have my own special feelings too.

It's not an insult. It's how I feel. I've seen all I need to see and won't be any wiser for watching the same thing play out over and over. No offense intended.

flyer85
06-25-2007, 11:37 AM
Team OBP - 23 of 30
from an offensive standpoint, there is the problem. The Reds simply don't get enough runners on base and at times this season Narron has put guys that do near the bottom of the order.

D-Man
06-25-2007, 02:24 PM
Overall - really not much of a glimmer of hope for the future.

I thought this was a fourth place club coming into the year, so I had relatively low expectations.

I see several glimmers of hope:

1.) I'm actually pretty intrigued about the upcoming trading deadline, as the Reds have a lot of interesting parts to exchange
2.) Votto
3.) Continued improvement of EdE, and Phillips (both are decent 2008 breakout candidates)
4.) Interesting young bullpen arms, both in The Show and in the minors
5.) Can Homer put together his game at the major league level?
6.) Hamilton's had one hell of a month in June: .296/.406/.519. Will the league figure him out the second or third time around? Can he stay healthy?

Re: the pythagorean projection. . . The Reds are actually somewhere from five to ~8.4 below their predicted wins. The club is only winning ~30 percent of their close games, a pace that is unlikely to continue.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/standings.php

I generally don't put much stock in the pythagorean variances, but these numbers strongly suggest the Reds will rebound and rip out an eight- or 10-game winning streak before the season ends. Let's hope the rebound happens *after* the trading deadline, so as not to discourage the purge of veteran chaff on or before 31 July.

edabbs44
06-25-2007, 02:25 PM
from an offensive standpoint, there is the problem. The Reds simply don't get enough runners on base and at times this season Narron has put guys that do near the bottom of the order.

They are 14th out of 30 in runs scored, so that isn't really the problem since they are 30th out of 30 in overall record.

flyer85
06-25-2007, 02:31 PM
They are 14th out of 30 in runs scored, so that isn't really the problem since they are 30th out of 30 in overall record.but they are 6th in SLG so the 14th in runs scored is an issue because if the HRs dry up(via trade/slump) the offense is going to disappear. And when Jr and Dunn are gone by 2009(at the latest) the HRs are going with them.

Red Leader
06-25-2007, 02:35 PM
but they are 6th in SLG so the 14th in runs scored is an issue because if the HRs dry up(via trade/slump) the offense is going to disappear. And when Jr and Dunn are gone by 2009(at the latest) the HRs are going with them.

Yeah, but the defense will improve. :p: (see: Twins, Minnesota)

Kidding of course. I remain optimistic, but things are going to have to change for me to remain that way in the near future. This upcoming trade deadline should be a good first indicator of that.

flyer85
06-25-2007, 02:40 PM
This upcoming trade deadline should be a good first indicator of that.I will be able to tell as much by who gets traded more than what is acquired in return.

edabbs44
06-25-2007, 02:45 PM
but they are 6th in SLG so the 14th in runs scored is an issue because if the HRs dry up(via trade/slump) the offense is going to disappear. And when Jr and Dunn are gone by 2009(at the latest) the HRs are going with them.

I thought we were talking about what is wrong with the team, not what is going to be wrong with the team.

The team is middle of the pack in runs scored, no matter how you slice it.

flyer85
06-25-2007, 02:49 PM
I thought we were talking about what is wrong with the team, not what is going to be wrong with the team.
... I hope someone is looking ahead. OBP is a problem that is being masked by SLG%.

smith288
06-25-2007, 02:58 PM
Really?

When I hear side handed insults like that then I have my own special feelings too.

Its his specialty.

RedEye
06-25-2007, 03:01 PM
I'm assuming the team also doesn't hit well with RISP. Call it a hunch.

Low OBP + Low BA with RISP + lots of HR = a very streaky offense at best.

D-Man
06-25-2007, 03:46 PM
I'm assuming the team also doesn't hit well with RISP. Call it a hunch.

You are correct--.231 BA and .717 OPS with RISP.


Low OBP + Low BA with RISP + lots of HR = a very streaky offense at best.

You can add "low doubles" to that list, too. The Reds are last in the NL in that department.

This offense is virtually one dimensional, with a few steals for good measure.

PuffyPig
06-25-2007, 04:05 PM
Pythag Record - 34-42 - Reds are playing 5 games under.


Overall - really not much of a glimmer of hope for the future.

That's the only number that gives me hope.

We siomply aren't as bad as our record shows us to be.

We should be a 72-90 team this year. Not great, but quite a bit better than our actual record.

PuffyPig
06-25-2007, 04:11 PM
but they are 6th in SLG so the 14th in runs scored is an issue because if the HRs dry up(via trade/slump) the offense is going to disappear. And when Jr and Dunn are gone by 2009(at the latest) the HRs are going with them.


If Griffey and Dunn were gone this year, and were replaced by 2 guys with 5 HR's each, we'd be 3rd in the NL in HR's this year. If they were replaced by guys who could have hit 9 each, we'd be 2nd.

Every position on the team except EE is one pace to hit 20 HR's this year. It's just not Griffey and Dunn.

And I suggest that it would be pretty easy to get a LF and and a RF to hit 20 HR's each. Bruce should replace Griffey. ANd LF is always to easiest place to find a 20 HR guy, especially in GABP.

Redsfaithful
06-26-2007, 12:18 AM
Really?

When I hear side handed insults like that then I have my own special feelings too.

woy, I really respect your opinion, and it seems like you've been pretty patient with Krivsky. Maybe you've outlined why in another thread, so if you could point me to that or let me know why you're not as down on him as some (most?) I'd be really interested.