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flyer85
06-27-2007, 05:24 PM
anyone notice last night that Dunn swung(and put in play) the first strike he saw in each AB(I never recall seeing anything like that from him before). He has seemingly changed his approach in June and been much more aggressive early in the count.

The numbers show it as well. He has halved his BB rate but has also dropped his K rate. His BA and SLG% are way up.



April 88 6 12 14 32 .363 .511 .261
May 103 8 23 16 41 .355 .573 .252
June 78 7 15 7 24 .368 .628 .308


Which Dunn is better?

RedsManRick
06-27-2007, 05:27 PM
If he can sustain those June rate stats after pitchers adjust to his new approach, I'm all about it. If they stop giving him hittable pitches to start and yet he keeps swinging, well, I think we'll have our answer. Good observation in any case.

Matt700wlw
06-27-2007, 05:33 PM
Don't we say this every year and then over the course of a season, he still is what he is?

flyer85
06-27-2007, 05:41 PM
Don't we say this every year and then over the course of a season, he still is what he is?in the years 2004-2006 the lowest BB total Dunn has had in any one month is 13. He has never had a single digit BB total in any non-injured month in his career. He has been only under 13 once, 10 in May of 2003.

His BB rate this season is the lowest of his career(.119). The previous low was .158 on 2003. He still walks quite a bit but the drop has been noticeable.

Has he turned a corner in modifying his approach to put more balls in play?
If so, will it stick?

RedsManRick
06-27-2007, 05:49 PM
Do take note though, that with this new approach, if his BA drops back to .260, his OBP would be in the .320 range and suddenly Dunn is Soriano without the speed.

KronoRed
06-27-2007, 05:57 PM
Do take note though, that with this new approach, if his BA drops back to .260, his OBP would be in the .320 range and suddenly Dunn is Soriano without the speed.

That's concerning considering when a player slumps the first stat to take a hit is bat avg, a player who can still walk will be better off during a slump.

flyer85
06-27-2007, 06:01 PM
Do take note though, that with this new approach, if his BA drops back to .260, his OBP would be in the .320 range and suddenly Dunn is Soriano without the speed.that is the $64000 question

Matt700wlw
06-27-2007, 06:04 PM
that is the $64000 question

Actually it's a $13 million question....

Red Leader
06-27-2007, 06:25 PM
Actually it's a $13 million question....

It is an optionable question as well.

VR
06-27-2007, 06:37 PM
I think his OPs is significantly higher this year for 0-2 and after

RedEye
06-27-2007, 06:38 PM
With a revised approach such as this, what would you all consider acceptable numbers for Dunn? Assuming that his OBP would drop and his SLG and BA would increase, would you be looking for something like .260/.350/.600? That would put him at a .950 OPS and would be a remarkable improvement IMO, even if he did lose OBP.

texasdave
06-27-2007, 06:59 PM
With a revised approach such as this, what would you all consider acceptable numbers for Dunn? Assuming that his OBP would drop and his SLG and BA would increase, would you be looking for something like .260/.350/.600? That would put him at a .950 OPS and would be a remarkable improvement IMO, even if he did lose OBP.

If this GPA stuff has any validity then for every 1 point you lose in OBP you have to gain 1.8 points in SLG to break even. At the start of 2007 AD had an OBP of .380 and a SLG OF .513. If he was to OBP .350 this year he would have to slug at a .567 clip to be at his career run-creating norm according to GPA. In answer to your question a line of .260/.350/.600 would be an improvement.



year(s) obp slg ops gpa
01--06 0.380 0.513 0.893 0.299
2007 0.350 0.567 0.917 0.299
2007 0.350 0.600 0.950 0.308


For anyone not very familiar (like myself) with Gross Production Average, here is a good article by the person who created it. http://www.aarongleeman.com/2003_11_23_baseballblog_archive.html I am sure this has been on ORG before, but linking it here sure beats searching through past threads.

RedEye
06-27-2007, 07:19 PM
Thanks, texasdave. Very informative.

remdog
06-27-2007, 07:24 PM
GPA? Grade Point Average? ;)

Rem

remdog
06-27-2007, 07:30 PM
Actually, I've liked the 'new' Dunn approach/results. His numbers so far this year are very close to what I envisioned for him when he was in the high minors.

I've not been a proponent of trading AD before and, if he can continue these results, I'd be even more reluctant about trading him now.

Rem

RedEye
06-27-2007, 09:11 PM
Agreed. If this is indeed the 'new' Dunn, he is far more valuable IMO. He's always needed to use better pitch selection early in the count. He's so powerful that a lot of those pitches he swings at will go a long way. I don't think we've seen his best season yet.

paintmered
06-27-2007, 11:36 PM
If he can sustain those June rate stats after pitchers adjust to his new approach, I'm all about it. If they stop giving him hittable pitches to start and yet he keeps swinging, well, I think we'll have our answer. Good observation in any case.

His walk rates have sustained his production during his periods of slumping. It's great right now, but I'm afraid that when he stops making contact, he's going to hurt the team more than before.

Edit: nevermind, someone already said this.

RedsManRick
06-27-2007, 11:43 PM
His walk rates have sustained his production during his periods of slumping. It's great right now, but I'm afraid that when he stops making contact, he's going to hurt the team more than before.

Edit: nevermind, someone already said this.

That's my concern too. I also wonder if maybe this average isn't artificial. Pitchers know they can get early strikes on him, so he's finally adjusting to it. They've been making their "good" pitches early in the count, and then getting him on borderline stuff.

The question in my mind is what he does when they start pitching around him again. The numbers we see now make absolute sense. Because he crushes the ball so much, if he can maintain his batted ball types while increasing contact, he can become a monster very quickly, at the expense of OBP and the trade off will be worth it. However, if he increases his balls in play and they are mostly grounders and pop-ups, everything suffers. It will be quite interesting to watch.

jojo
06-28-2007, 12:13 AM
I don't see a new approach. I see that he's strung together a good week and a half of interleague play including a series against the Rangers.

Ebb and flow.

M2
06-28-2007, 03:36 AM
Dunn's certainly been locked in of late. It's remarkable that a bat this big is on the market and teams aren't knocking each other over to get him. He'd make a team that needs a big bat very happy.

Ron Madden
06-28-2007, 04:00 AM
Dunn's certainly been locked in of late. It's remarkable that a bat this big is on the market and teams aren't knocking each other over to get him. He'd make a team that needs a big bat very happy.

The Reds ARE one of those teams that need Dunn's big bat but because Marty aint happy... aint nobody happy.

That sounds silly but there's a lot of truth in there.

:(

Johnny Footstool
06-28-2007, 12:42 PM
Dunn is still seeing about the same # of pitches per PA (4.19) as he did last season.

And his strikeout rate has gone up. Last season, he K'ed every 3.5 PAs. This season, it's every 3.14 PAs. At this rate, he's going to blow past 200 Ks. I really can't wait to hear about Dunn's fantastic new approach when that happens.

RedsManRick
06-28-2007, 02:34 PM
How many pitchers per PA has he seen in June? I'm pretty sure the reference to a new approach was not the entire year, but something more recent.

jojo
06-28-2007, 03:32 PM
How many pitchers per PA has he seen in June? I'm pretty sure the reference to a new approach was not the entire year, but something more recent.

Dunn's 2007 P/PA by month so far:

April: 4.05;
May: 4.44;
June: 4.01;

IMHO, while it's possible that Dunn has changed his approach, his P/PA doesn't support the notion and it's likely that what we're seeing from a results-based perspective is variation due to sample size (or perhaps some sharp eyes are really noticing a reversion from May's unual spike). Basically he had a really good 4 game stretch against Texas and LA (10 for 16, 4 hrs). Before that he was Dunn being Dunn (11G, 8-37, 1 hr) to start June and his OPS was in danger of dipping below .500 for the season. Since the great four game stretch, he's back to being pretty normal Dunn (8G, 7-29, 3 hrs).

Without charting each of his at bats, I'm not sold on the premise of this thread.

VR
06-28-2007, 04:21 PM
Dunn is still seeing about the same # of pitches per PA (4.19) as he did last season.

And his strikeout rate has gone up. Last season, he K'ed every 3.5 PAs. This season, it's every 3.14 PAs. At this rate, he's going to blow past 200 Ks. I really can't wait to hear about Dunn's fantastic new approach when that happens.

It's a good question.

To me....I see Adam has adjusted greatly when the count is 0-2 or 1-2.

For the last three years, Adam has had 133 ab's with the count 0-2 when a result was produced. A hit, strikeout or other out.

In those 133 ab's,
97 resulted in a K
12 hits
2 resulted in a HR
3 RBI's were produced
An overall OPS of .255.

This year he has had 21 ab's
11 resulted in a K
4 hits
1 resulted in an HR
2 rbi's were produced
An overall OPS of .523


At 1-2 in 2004-06 he had 261 ab's
167 resulted in a k
28 hits
3 HR
15 RBI
.299 OPS

In 2007
46 ab's
7 hits
2 HR
6 RBI
28 K
.500


What is tells me (I know, small sample size) is Adam may be adjusting when he is in an extreme pitcher's count, as opposed to 'swinging for the fences' as a case could be made (with obvious dreadful results)

Situationally, are we more content with him trying to do something with the pitcher's pitch at 0-2 rather than either waiting for "his" pitch or flailing wildly trying to hit the long ball?

He is an incredible mistake pitch hitter, and hitter's count slugger...perhaps the best in the league. A slight adjustment to his mindset for the pitcher's count continues to be his biggest opportunity IMHO, and perhaps the trends we have seen this year will continue.

WVPacman
06-29-2007, 12:18 AM
Agreed. If this is indeed the 'new' Dunn, he is far more valuable IMO. He's always needed to use better pitch selection early in the count.He's so powerful that a lot of those pitches he swings at will go a long way. I don't think we've seen his best season yet.


Thats why the reds should keep him b/c he will only get better and better.Keep him and build around him!!!!!

johngalt
06-29-2007, 03:29 AM
One other thing to note...

A lot of people who advocate getting rid of Dunn have pointed in the past to his home run totals and say that he hits a bunch of solo home runs and doesn't hit that many when runners are on base.

From 2004-'06, 72 of his 126 homers were solo shots, which represented 57% of his total long balls.

This year, 12 of his first 23 have been solo, dropping to 52%. Now, sure, a 5% drop probably isn't a big deal, but that could represent a change also.

By the way, the NL average on the year according to the team averages I found on ESPN.com was roughly 59% solo shots, so he's better than the league average in that regard.

Ron Madden
06-29-2007, 04:41 AM
One other thing to note...

A lot of people who advocate getting rid of Dunn have pointed in the past to his home run totals and say that he hits a bunch of solo home runs and doesn't hit that many when runners are on base.

From 2004-'06, 72 of his 126 homers were solo shots, which represented 57% of his total long balls.

This year, 12 of his first 23 have been solo, dropping to 52%. Now, sure, a 5% drop probably isn't a big deal, but that could represent a change also.

By the way, the NL average on the year according to the team averages I found on ESPN.com was roughly 59% solo shots, so he's better than the league average in that regard.



Nice Post,

I will never hold it against any hitter for hitting solo home runs, It's kinda hard to hit a two run shot leading an inning off and you have no control of the hitters ahead of you reaching base. Adam Dunn is a run producer.

The sad thing is thousands upon thousands of "Casual Reds Fans" and many "Die Hard Reds Fans" will never come to understand the true value of Adam Dunn.

Why? Because they are told night in and night out that Adam Dunn sucks because he K's too much can't hit WRISP and hurts this team defensively.

Then they wake up in the morning and read that same ill informed opinion in the morning paper and hear it all day long on sportstalk radio.


There isn't a beatwriter or sportstalk host in town with enough sense to do thier own research or enough balls to disagree with "The HOF Voice Of The Reds".

Make no mistake about it Marty rules the sports media of Cincinnati.

Marty's opinion is always right disagree with him at your own risk of suffer the a verbal beat down during the broadcast of a MLB game.

Adds up to a very sad state of affairs IMHO.


Sorry for the rant. (boy I'm glad the rep system is gone. I'd get butcherd for this post).

;)