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View Full Version : Radical Drw Stubbs idea, promote him



M2
06-28-2007, 12:44 PM
I'm starting to get disgusted with Drew Stubbs' non-existent offensive game. I'm a firm believer in the notion that an organization needs to identify the true keepers in its system and deal the others while their value is high. Stubbs has made an excellent for him not being a keeper.

So that brings me to dealing him while his value is high. If he continues to play like he is right now, it's unlikely he'll have any value. He's been on a forced downhill march since entering the minors.

Even if he recovers in Dayton during the final two months of the minor league season, his current .689 OPS pretty much guarantees that his 2007 numbers at that level will win up looking awfully unimpressive.

So why not send him to a new level? Pitchers in the FSL won't have much of a book on him, so he might be able to thrive there for a short time and put together a respectable close to his season. The Reds can claim he was wasn't being challenged enough and with his tools package and pedigree you might find some other teams more interested him during the offseason if he can do something productive with his stick for a short spell at a higher level.

It could completely backfire. He could collapse, but what do you really have to lose? I say you treat him like a major prospect, move him up and hope he does enough to create some market value for this winter.

Benihana
06-28-2007, 12:46 PM
I like this idea. The status quo is definitely not working.

Triples
06-28-2007, 12:58 PM
Intersting concept but IMO I see a couple of things that I don't agree with in your "radical idea". First, teams share scouting reports across the minor league levels. Just because a player has never played in a league before doesn't mean they don't have scouting reports. Its obvious by now just about everyone has figured out is weaknesses and those are well documented in the scouting reports; 2.) with or without the scouting reports, the pitchers in the next level up will be better (at least on an overall average) so the likelihood of Stubbs doing better in Sarasota than in Dayton seems diminished. Combine the better pitching talent with good scouting reports and it seems highly unlikely that Stubbs would do any better and very likely do worse. He really needs to get it figured out, at least to a greater degree than right now, before they promote him.

I'm starting to get disgusted with Drew Stubbs' non-existent offensive game. I'm a firm believer in the notion that an organization needs to identify the true keepers in its system and deal the others while their value is high. Stubbs has made an excellent for him not being a keeper.

So that brings me to dealing him while his value is high. If he continues to play like he is right now, it's unlikely he'll have any value. He's been on a forced downhill march since entering the minors.

Even if he recovers in Dayton during the final two months of the minor league season, his current .689 OPS pretty much guarantees that his 2007 numbers at that level will win up looking awfully unimpressive.

So why not send him to a new level? Pitchers in the FSL won't have much of a book on him, so he might be able to thrive there for a short time and put together a respectable close to his season. The Reds can claim he was wasn't being challenged enough and with his tools package and pedigree you might find some other teams more interested him during the offseason if he can do something productive with his stick for a short spell at a higher level.

It could completely backfire. He could collapse, but what do you really have to lose? I say you treat him like a major prospect, move him up and hope he does enough to create some market value for this winter.

M2
06-28-2007, 01:22 PM
Intersting concept but IMO I see a couple of things that I don't agree with in your "radical idea". First, teams share scouting reports across the minor league levels. Just because a player has never played in a league before doesn't mean they don't have scouting reports. Its obvious by now just about everyone has figured out is weaknesses and those are well documented in the scouting reports; 2.) with or without the scouting reports, the pitchers in the next level up will be better (at least on an overall average) so the likelihood of Stubbs doing better in Sarasota than in Dayton seems diminished. Combine the better pitching talent with good scouting reports and it seems highly unlikely that Stubbs would do any better and very likely do worse. He really needs to get it figured out, at least to a greater degree than right now, before they promote him.

Even with shared scouting reports, it takes a while for a league to get a good book on a player. In particular, they might not be overly worried about a guy who was struggling a level lower when he first shows up.

I'd worry more about the level jump if it was A to AA, but the FSL is still going to heavy with fastball pitchers with spottier off-speed offerings. For a guy who played major college baseball, what he sees there shouldn't be startling.

I'm not really worried if he does worse. What do you lose if he flops? He's already flopping. My concern is that if he figures it out a bit in Dayton, you don't gain anything. I'm not sure it moves the perceptual chains to give him some trade value. If he moves up a level and plays well there, that could resurrect his prospect status.

Another year like 2007 to date and he's in Szymanskiville. I'm not as concerned about Stubbs' develpment right now as I am in potentially getting some value from the #8 pick in the 2006 draft.

dfs
06-28-2007, 01:24 PM
Don't hitting numbers usually take a hit when they move from Dayton to Sarasota? I mean...if the idea is to provide the illusion of improvment, that isn't likely to help. Since he never drives the ball, I think a good deal of Stubbs value will vanish as the pitchers (and fielders) he faces start to become better.

Falls City Beer
06-28-2007, 01:26 PM
Even with shared scouting reports, it takes a while for a league to get a good book on a player. In particular, they might not overly worried about a guy who was struggling a level lower when he first shows up.

I'd worry more about the level jump if it was A to AA, but the FSL is still going to heavy with fastball pitchers with spottier off-speed offerings. For a guy who played major college baseball, what he sees there shouldn't be startling.

I'm not really worried if he does worse. What do you lose if he flops? He's already flopping. My concern is that if he figures it out a bit in Dayton, you don't gain anything. I'm not sure it moves the perceptual chains to give him some trade value. If he moves up a level and plays well there, that could resurrect his prospect status.

Another year like 2007 to date and he's in Szymanskiville. I'm not as concerned about Stubbs' develpment right now as I am in potentially getting some value from the #8 pick in the 2006 draft.

This is exactly the Machiavellian exploitation of the farm we need that we've not seen in some time. It's time this organization got wise and started the squeeze some rancid juice from its frost-stung fruit.

Falls City Beer
06-28-2007, 01:27 PM
Don't hitting numbers usually take a hit when they move from Dayton to Sarasota? I mean...if the idea is to provide the illusion of improvment, that isn't likely to help. Since he never drives the ball, I think a good deal of Stubbs value will vanish as the pitchers (and fielders) he faces start to become better.

As M2 said: what's to lose?

Kc61
06-28-2007, 01:29 PM
I was thinking the other day that he might go the other way and wind up back in Billings.

Triples
06-28-2007, 01:35 PM
Huh????:confused:

This is exactly the Machiavellian exploitation of the farm we need that we've not seen in some time. It's time this organization got wise and started the squeeze some rancid juice from its frost-stung fruit.

TOBTTReds
06-28-2007, 01:42 PM
How hard does he throw? Is it time for a matt bush change? I know it is extremely early, but I don't have any faith.

Triples
06-28-2007, 01:45 PM
If I may respond to each of your comments, again IMO:

Even with shared scouting reports, it takes a while for a league to get a good book on a player. In particular, they might not overly worried about a guy who was struggling a level lower when he first shows up. I'd would concede on this one if it weren't for the fact that Stubbs was a #1 pick. No one is going to simply ignore him. every player drafted below him wants to better him, I don't care what league he's playing in except maybe the majors

I'd worry more about the level jump if it was A to AA, but the FSL is still going to heavy with fastball pitchers with spottier off-speed offerings. For a guy who played major college baseball, what he sees there shouldn't be startling. Isn't it true that the pitchers that move up in the system are those that pitch better? And isn't it true that those that pitch better are those that have developed more than one pitch? If that's correct, then why would high A be more fastball heavy than Low A or Rookie ball/

I'm not really worried if he does worse. What do you lose if he flops? He's already flopping. My concern is that if he figures it out a bit in Dayton, you don't gain anything. I'm not sure it moves the perceptual chains to give him some trade value. If he moves up a level and plays well there, that could resurrect his prospect status. Because the odds highly favor him flopping at a higher level worse than he did at the lower level, then he would have zero value.

Another year like 2007 to date and he's in Szymanskiville. I'm not as concerned about Stubbs' develpment right now as I am in potentially getting some value from the #8 pick in the 2006 draft. OK, then trade him now while there maybe someone out there that thinks he something that he's heretofore shown he's not. Don't send him up so he can fail again and make him have no value.

One other consideration about sending him to High A. There's that little thing called confidence. I have to think its at low tide for Stubbs right now. If he goes to High A and falls on his face, he may be ruined.

No one has questioned his athletic ability or makeup, may be he is just a late bloomer (so to speak). Let him find his way in a league where he has a chance at some success. Someone suggested sending him back to Billings. That may not be a bad idea if its presented to him in the right way.

This may sound like I'm down on Drew Stubbs, but I'm not. I just disagree with the notion that the thing to do with him is to push him to the next level and that will somehow either make him better of increase his value.



Even with shared scouting reports, it takes a while for a league to get a good book on a player. In particular, they might not overly worried about a guy who was struggling a level lower when he first shows up.

I'd worry more about the level jump if it was A to AA, but the FSL is still going to heavy with fastball pitchers with spottier off-speed offerings. For a guy who played major college baseball, what he sees there shouldn't be startling.

I'm not really worried if he does worse. What do you lose if he flops? He's already flopping. My concern is that if he figures it out a bit in Dayton, you don't gain anything. I'm not sure it moves the perceptual chains to give him some trade value. If he moves up a level and plays well there, that could resurrect his prospect status.

Another year like 2007 to date and he's in Szymanskiville. I'm not as concerned about Stubbs' develpment right now as I am in potentially getting some value from the #8 pick in the 2006 draft.

Red Leader
06-28-2007, 02:06 PM
My $.02.

M2 and FCB are right on. Stubbs, at this point, is a sunk cost. Confidence? I don't care about his confidence. I care about the confidence of the players that are playing well and I want to stay in the system. I care about having a player in our organization that can, eventually, contribute at the MLB level. If that player can't contribute at the MLB level, I care about dealing him to someone that will give me someone that could possibly contribute. Sending him down to Billings would absolutely destroy his value. He's a 4 year college player, not a H.S. kid. Keeping him at Dayton and hoping he turns his season around is what everyone else does and rarely gets rewarded for. Pushing him up to High A is just the kind of creative thing we need. If (and it's an if) he succeeds at that level, he's started to add more value back to us. Other teams could rationalize that he is advancing and improving and if he were made available immediately after experiencing some success, we might see something in return for him. That would also coincide nicely with including him in on a deadline deal at the major league level. Right now, nobody thinks he's improving and most think he's a bust. You're not going to change anyone's mind on that unless you advance him to a higher level and he succeeds there. Sure there is a high probability that he'll fail. So what? He's failing now. If he can't be moved in a trade this year, you've given him a little bit of exposure to High A this year, a level he should be advanced to next year, regardless. So he's really getting a look at what he'll be facing next year and hopefully it will sober him up to work harder this offseason. I think it's a great idea, M2.

pedro
06-28-2007, 02:09 PM
How good is his arm? Could he conceivably be converted into a pitcher?

Red Leader
06-28-2007, 02:13 PM
How good is his arm? Could he conceivably be converted into a pitcher?

From what I've seen he's got a decent arm. I've never heard anyone rave about it, but it is accurate and it's not weak. I wouldn't have the first clue as to how hard he would throw on the mound. I don't think he'd push the low 90's, though, probably mid-high 80's, just from what I've seen in person, but again, that's just a wild guess.

dougdirt might have a better idea on how realistic a move to the mound would be for Stubbs.

M2
06-28-2007, 02:28 PM
Even with shared scouting reports, it takes a while for a league to get a good book on a player. In particular, they might not overly worried about a guy who was struggling a level lower when he first shows up. I'd would concede on this one if it weren't for the fact that Stubbs was a #1 pick. No one is going to simply ignore him. every player drafted below him wants to better him, I don't care what league he's playing in except maybe the majors

Maybe, maybe not. Won't know if you don't try.


I'd worry more about the level jump if it was A to AA, but the FSL is still going to heavy with fastball pitchers with spottier off-speed offerings. For a guy who played major college baseball, what he sees there shouldn't be startling. Isn't it true that the pitchers that move up in the system are those that pitch better? And isn't it true that those that pitch better are those that have developed more than one pitch? If that's correct, then why would high A be more fastball heavy than Low A or Rookie ball/

It's not that it's more fastball heavy than lower levels (and obviously he'll be seeing better pitchers), but the "stuff" he sees there won't be completely alien to what he's seen at the college level.


I'm not really worried if he does worse. What do you lose if he flops? He's already flopping. My concern is that if he figures it out a bit in Dayton, you don't gain anything. I'm not sure it moves the perceptual chains to give him some trade value. If he moves up a level and plays well there, that could resurrect his prospect status. Because the odds highly favor him flopping at a higher level worse than he did at the lower level, then he would have zero value.

He's already at zero. Can't go lower. The kid is failing like crazy in Dayton. Again, my concern is that recovering in Dayton doesn't do much for his market value. Moving up a level and doing better, that restores some luster. Stubbs can fail anywhere and probably will the way he's going at the moment. I'm just trying to devise a scheme where some limited success on his part could pay dividends for the Reds.


Another year like 2007 to date and he's in Szymanskiville. I'm not as concerned about Stubbs' develpment right now as I am in potentially getting some value from the #8 pick in the 2006 draft. OK, then trade him now while there maybe someone out there that thinks he something that he's heretofore shown he's not. Don't send him up so he can fail again and make him have no value.

I'm all for trading him now, but he's already thrown up the red flag. Things have already gone horribly wrong. If you want to get something for him, you're probably going to have to figure out how to reconvince some potential buyers.


One other consideration about sending him to High A. There's that little thing called confidence. I have to think its at low tide for Stubbs right now. If he goes to High A and falls on his face, he may be ruined.

Or maybe it acts a massive confidence booster, a clear sign that the Reds think he's still the real deal. Frankly, I don't see where failing at a higher level is worse than failing at a lower level (something he's already doing) in terms of confidence. Beyond that, I'm not particulary interested in what's best for Drew Stubbs. My goal would be to make him some other organization's problem.


No one has questioned his athletic ability or makeup, may be he is just a late bloomer (so to speak). Let him find his way in a league where he has a chance at some success. Someone suggested sending him back to Billings. That may not be a bad idea if its presented to him in the right way.

He has a chance at having some success at high A too. Not a good chance, but that's the case where he is right now too. Sending down a guy like Stubbs to the Pioneer League a year after he was drafted out of the top tier of college ball would be like applying chloroform to his prospect status, like stamping the word "FAILURE" across his forehead. It wouldn't matter what he did down there and God forbid that he struggle there too, because that would turn him into a punchline. You render him utterly worthless if you demote him.


This may sound like I'm down on Drew Stubbs, but I'm not. I just disagree with the notion that the thing to do with him is to push him to the next level and that will somehow either make him better of increase his value.

If he plays well, it unquestionably would increase his value. You're trying to hedge your development bets with him. I'm not. I'm saying go all in on a big bet that he'll respond well to a two-month promotion and look to flip him this winter.

rdiersin
06-28-2007, 02:33 PM
I'm starting to get disgusted with Drew Stubbs' non-existent offensive game. I'm a firm believer in the notion that an organization needs to identify the true keepers in its system and deal the others while their value is high. Stubbs has made an excellent for him not being a keeper.

So that brings me to dealing him while his value is high. If he continues to play like he is right now, it's unlikely he'll have any value. He's been on a forced downhill march since entering the minors.

Even if he recovers in Dayton during the final two months of the minor league season, his current .689 OPS pretty much guarantees that his 2007 numbers at that level will win up looking awfully unimpressive.

So why not send him to a new level? Pitchers in the FSL won't have much of a book on him, so he might be able to thrive there for a short time and put together a respectable close to his season. The Reds can claim he was wasn't being challenged enough and with his tools package and pedigree you might find some other teams more interested him during the offseason if he can do something productive with his stick for a short spell at a higher level.

It could completely backfire. He could collapse, but what do you really have to lose? I say you treat him like a major prospect, move him up and hope he does enough to create some market value for this winter.

Heck, if you're going to do that why wouldn't you just send him to AA which is at least a bit more of a friendly enviroment for hitters. His ISOD is respectable, so he may hold his own (respectively, of course) there as much as he would in the FSL. Its a risky proposition regardless, in that if he continues to have a bad season it basically destroys any hope of getting something out of him in a trade, throw in or not. It also could destroy what little confidence he may have left in his hitting ability (or lack there of). If he stays in Dayton and he continues his path, he may not get much by himself, but he could be an interesting throw in to some teams in order to get a better player.

Falls City Beer
06-28-2007, 02:37 PM
Heck, if you're going to do that why wouldn't you just send him to AA which is at least a bit more of a friendly enviroment for hitters. His ISOD is respectable, so he may hold his own (respectively, of course) there as much as he would in the FSL. Its a risky proposition regardless, in that if he continues to have a bad season it basically destroys any hope of getting something out of him in a trade, throw in or not. It also could destroy what little confidence he may have left in his hitting ability (or lack there of). If he stays in Dayton and he continues his path, he may not get much by himself, but he could be an interesting throw in to some teams in order to get a better player.

Again, I fail to see what's to lose--by promoting to the FSL or, as you say, AA?

Really--let's say he falls on his face at either stop: what happens? And who cares?

Risk of him failing is much less consequential than the possible reward of him becoming something more than a throw-in in a trade (which is to say, nothing). He's never going to be the principal in a trade, so why not try to make him a prospect-level piece?

Red Leader
06-28-2007, 02:43 PM
One thing Drew has in his corner is that he won't be overmatched on the defensive side of the ball. Even if you put him at AA, he still should be one of the better defensive CFers in the league.

Rojo
06-28-2007, 02:48 PM
Why not? Even Judy's have hot streaks and Stubby's due. It might be nice if it was at a higher level.

Of course, if that happened, we'd only sucker ourselves.

rdiersin
06-28-2007, 02:53 PM
Again, I fail to see what's to lose--by promoting to the FSL or, as you say, AA?

Really--let's say he falls on his face at either stop: what happens? And who cares?

Risk of him failing is much less consequential than the possible reward of him becoming something more than a throw-in in a trade (which is to say, nothing). He's never going to be the principal in a trade, so why not try to make him a prospect-level piece?

I don't disagree with that. But it still becomes an all or almost nothing proposition, instead of there being a maybe. That's all I meant. To the organization, it probably isn't that risky, in that if he fails there are others than can be an adequate throw in. But to some GMs (Jim Bowden raise your hand) a maybe is quite a lot.

I still think that if you do this sort of thing you go big or don't go at all. I just am not sure I see the advantage of moving up to the FSL.

Red Leader
06-28-2007, 02:53 PM
Of course, if that happened, we'd only sucker ourselves.

That was my first thought as well.

Unfortunately, we don't have any forward thinking people in the organization to come up with something like this, so I doubt you'll see Stubbs go anywhere this season, realistically. That's why this organization drives me crazy. Seems like they run it the same as they did back in the 70's.

bucksfan2
06-28-2007, 03:52 PM
So Stubbs has had around one year hitting with a wooden bat in professional baseball and everyone and their brother is ready to give up on him. Them people say well hes an older prospect and he shoudl be dominating low A ball. Wasn't Ryan Howard an older prospect. People fail to realize that Howard and Dunn are around the same age. The reds and this front office especially are not going to give up on Stubbs after one year of professional baseball. Not to mention this entire year he has been playing hurt. I have never had turf toe but I hear it is no fun. Why dont we quit with the stubbs bashing and start to give updates on Tim Lincecum?

Highlifeman21
06-28-2007, 03:57 PM
I'm starting to get disgusted with Drew Stubbs' non-existent offensive game. I'm a firm believer in the notion that an organization needs to identify the true keepers in its system and deal the others while their value is high. Stubbs has made an excellent for him not being a keeper.

So that brings me to dealing him while his value is high. If he continues to play like he is right now, it's unlikely he'll have any value. He's been on a forced downhill march since entering the minors.

Even if he recovers in Dayton during the final two months of the minor league season, his current .689 OPS pretty much guarantees that his 2007 numbers at that level will win up looking awfully unimpressive.

So why not send him to a new level? Pitchers in the FSL won't have much of a book on him, so he might be able to thrive there for a short time and put together a respectable close to his season. The Reds can claim he was wasn't being challenged enough and with his tools package and pedigree you might find some other teams more interested him during the offseason if he can do something productive with his stick for a short spell at a higher level.

It could completely backfire. He could collapse, but what do you really have to lose? I say you treat him like a major prospect, move him up and hope he does enough to create some market value for this winter.


I couldn't agree anymore to the bolded statement, however....

The Reds recently have shown nothing but an inability to judge talent on both their roster(s) and in the draft. The Reds don't know their "keepers" vs their trading chips.

Stubbs never had value for the Reds, and was one of the worst selections in Reds drafting history.

rdiersin
06-28-2007, 04:11 PM
So Stubbs has had around one year hitting with a wooden bat in professional baseball and everyone and their brother is ready to give up on him. Them people say well hes an older prospect and he shoudl be dominating low A ball. Wasn't Ryan Howard an older prospect. People fail to realize that Howard and Dunn are around the same age. The reds and this front office especially are not going to give up on Stubbs after one year of professional baseball. Not to mention this entire year he has been playing hurt. I have never had turf toe but I hear it is no fun. Why dont we quit with the stubbs bashing and start to give updates on Tim Lincecum?

Its not really bashing, but rather trying to make an honest assesment. I take it you are fine with Stubbs as is? Howard, while playing low A at a similar age, isn't a very good comparison now is it? I mean he hit decently in his low A season. Stubbs on the other hand hasn't shown much power at all and hasn't hit the ball with much consistency. Those are legitimate concerns. Especially considering another Reds prospect, who had similar problems, in B.J. Szymanski.

Why give updates on Lincecum? Would you think the same updates for Homer would be as fair? I would love to have another guy that can (and is) strike out over a batter an inning right now. Not that it has anything to do with this discussion.

dougdirt
06-28-2007, 04:20 PM
So Stubbs has had around one year hitting with a wooden bat in professional baseball and everyone and their brother is ready to give up on him. Them people say well hes an older prospect and he shoudl be dominating low A ball. Wasn't Ryan Howard an older prospect. People fail to realize that Howard and Dunn are around the same age. The reds and this front office especially are not going to give up on Stubbs after one year of professional baseball. Not to mention this entire year he has been playing hurt. I have never had turf toe but I hear it is no fun. Why dont we quit with the stubbs bashing and start to give updates on Tim Lincecum?

I have not given up on Drew Stubbs. There is no reason to. He is struggling so far. That happens sometimes.

People won't quit Stubbs bashing becuase they are so frustrated with the Reds that all they have is to look forward to the future and rather than look at how far the system has come recently they grasp onto the first thing they can find that is disappointing and tear it apart. People already give updates on Lincecum every time he pitches almost. Its ridiculous around here sometimes.

lollipopcurve
06-28-2007, 04:40 PM
My .02...

Too early to give up on Stubbs or on your development team's ability to teach the kid to hit. He's been in pro ball 1 year. Now, if his name were a critical piece in a deal that brings the Reds a very nice arm, I wouldn't be bothered if Stubbs were traded. But, while he's in the organization, you have to do what's best for the kid's development.

For me, a key decision at this point is medical -- is his turf toe a significant drag on his performance? If so, I'd consider having him get the surgery in July or early August and be at full strength sooner for the off-season and 08. The way he's going now, he could end up at .200 and his confidence could get really damaged. If the turf toe is not really a problem, and he's just at a loss at the plate, you have to consider a demotion to Billings, where he could get some feel back. If he strokes it out there for a month, maybe then you vault him to Sarasota in August to join other ex-Daytoners (hopefully Valaika and Turner), but more as a reward and momentum builder for 08 than a bid to polish him for a trade -- though, as I said, if he could help bring back a very nice arm, I wouldn't blink at dealing him.

The signs aren't good on Stubbs, but we can't discount his medical situation, and, in my opinion, 1 year is too little time to think of him as nothing but a trading chip. A promotion to Sarasota is too risky -- it's a tough hitter's league, and if he were to bomb his confidence would be seriously gashed. My feeling all along on Stubbs is that it could take 2-3 years for his bat to come, with the biggest risk being that offensive struggles could infect his whole game and outlook. He may be in that territory now, I don't know, but sending him to high A would make it all the more likely. I wouldn't take that risk with him at this point.

Falls City Beer
06-28-2007, 04:41 PM
People won't quit Stubbs bashing becuase they are so frustrated with the Reds that all they have is to look forward to the future and rather than look at how far the system has come recently they grasp onto the first thing they can find that is disappointing and tear it apart. People already give updates on Lincecum every time he pitches almost. Its ridiculous around here sometimes.

Have you ever criticized a Reds' prospect?

Triples
06-28-2007, 04:49 PM
Amen Doug Dirt: Geez, the guy is what 22 or 23? Everyone is looking for the next 19 year old phenom. They call them phenoms because they come along so rarely.


I have not given up on Drew Stubbs. There is no reason to. He is struggling so far. That happens sometimes.

People won't quit Stubbs bashing becuase they are so frustrated with the Reds that all they have is to look forward to the future and rather than look at how far the system has come recently they grasp onto the first thing they can find that is disappointing and tear it apart. People already give updates on Lincecum every time he pitches almost. Its ridiculous around here sometimes.

Redman15
06-28-2007, 04:49 PM
Why are the Reds waiting so long to move Valiaka and Turner? Cozart is already in Dayton. I bet he plays today. Do think they are waiting for Frazier to sign and get to Dayton before they bump them up?

flyer85
06-28-2007, 04:53 PM
I can't imagine the Reds FO has seen enough to give up on him yet. Usually teams ride their #1 picks until the outcome is beyond obvious.

OesterPoster
06-28-2007, 05:56 PM
Why are the Reds waiting so long to move Valiaka and Turner? Cozart is already in Dayton. I bet he plays today. Do think they are waiting for Frazier to sign and get to Dayton before they bump them up?

Did I miss something? When did Cozart sign and get assigned to Dayton?

Red Leader
06-28-2007, 05:58 PM
Did I miss something? When did Cozart sign and get assigned to Dayton?

He hasn't signed yet. That's why he isn't playing.

Redman reported yesterday that Cozart was in Dayton and potentially waiting for his contract to be approved.

Redman15
06-28-2007, 07:02 PM
He is on the roster today.
Transactions says:
06/27/2007 Zack Cozart Player Addition Added to the Dragons roster after being selected by the Cincinnati Reds in the second round of the 2007 First Year Player Draft.

M2
06-28-2007, 07:20 PM
I still think that if you do this sort of thing you go big or don't go at all. I just am not sure I see the advantage of moving up to the FSL.

I figure one level up is plenty in that it A) starts him from zero, B) follows the industry-approved pattern of promoting top talents to the next level, C) gives him a chance to put on a showcase against a higher level of competition, hopefully negating some of the negative perceptions that have been mounting as he's struggled against a lower level of competition.

Though I'm open to the notion that AA might be a better fit and I'd certainly consider it. One of my concerns about viewing Chattanooga as an offensive paradise is that it's a hitter's park in a pitcher's league. My guess is it would be a pitcher's park in the Texas League.


I can't imagine the Reds FO has seen enough to give up on him yet. Usually teams ride their #1 picks until the outcome is beyond obvious.

That's almost always the way it works. I keep hoping the Reds will seek out a better way of doing business.


I have not given up on Drew Stubbs. There is no reason to. He is struggling so far. That happens sometimes.

People won't quit Stubbs bashing becuase they are so frustrated with the Reds that all they have is to look forward to the future and rather than look at how far the system has come recently they grasp onto the first thing they can find that is disappointing and tear it apart.

Who's Stubbs bashing? He's been awful, but that's just a statement of fact. My priority is the Reds get something for that pick. It doesn't have to come from Stubbs reaching the majors in a Reds uniform. Most prospects don't make it, meaning that you'd do well to trade a good number of them while the iron is hot. That's just realpolitik and all I'm suggesting is the Reds try to heat the iron in Stubbs' case.

I'd have to dig around to be 100% positive, but I'm pretty sure what we're seeing with Stubbs right now does not happen frequently to college players in low A the season after their drafted (at least not to the ones who go onto become quality major leaguers).


Too early to give up on Stubbs or on your development team's ability to teach the kid to hit. He's been in pro ball 1 year. Now, if his name were a critical piece in a deal that brings the Reds a very nice arm, I wouldn't be bothered if Stubbs were traded. But, while he's in the organization, you have to do what's best for the kid's development.

Technically you never give up on your development team's ability to reach anyone in your pipeline and I'm not suggesting the Reds do that in Stubbs' case. I just don't think it should be the Reds' priority. In order for Stubbs to become a critical piece to a deal that brings the Reds anything (arm, catcher, CF) something has to be done to restore his market value (currently residing in the tank). I'm arguing for the Reds to give themselves that option. Given the overvalued nature of prospects in the current market, I'd be quite interested in having a few to deal this winter, particularly with Eric Milton's contract coming off the books.

Jay Bruce is untouchable. Drew Stubbs should be very touchable and it's mostly a matter of making sure other teams want to get their hands on him.


For me, a key decision at this point is medical -- is his turf toe a significant drag on his performance?

Very good point. Though shame on the Reds for trotting him out there with a condition that's put his game into ruin if that's case. That's just foolish and it's potentially costing the franchise a valuable asset. When you've got a player with a medical condition that's severely dragging down his performance, it's time to DL him.


The signs aren't good on Stubbs, but we can't discount his medical situation, and, in my opinion, 1 year is too little time to think of him as nothing but a trading chip. A promotion to Sarasota is too risky -- it's a tough hitter's league, and if he were to bomb his confidence would be seriously gashed. My feeling all along on Stubbs is that it could take 2-3 years for his bat to come, with the biggest risk being that offensive struggles could infect his whole game and outlook. He may be in that territory now, I don't know, but sending him to high A would make it all the more likely. I wouldn't take that risk with him at this point.

Let's dig through risk vs. reward for a moment. I'm fairly confident in stating that the number of college players who then take two to three years in the minors to show proficiency with the stick and then go onto to become productive major leaguers is exceedingly tiny. In fact, I'd be shocked if it included much of anyone who came out of major collegiate programs like UT. Those kids have been coached up and faced three years of prime competition before they ever touch the minors. I can see where a kid from a smaller school in a lesser conference might take a while to adjust.

So I think you've got some fairly major risk associated with Stubbs right there in a "keep him" scenario. You're essentially hoping for him to be a bit of a unique creature.

I still don't see where falling flat on his face in high A is worse that what he's already doing, falling flat on his face in low A. And I don't know of too many people who's confidence is improved by a demotion. That strikes me as no confidence vote from the organization.

I don't think of him as nothing but a trading chip, but I want to have him as a potential chip. He wasn't eligible for a trade until earlier this month and already, one year after he was picked, his trade value has tanked due to his performance.

The team can worry about Stubbs' development in 2008 if he's still its property. Right now, the organization ought to employ some basic asset management/marketing strategy. How can you turn Stubbs back into a valuable asset that will draw interest from the market? I know it's not the stuff of "gee whiz" baseball melodrama, but the Reds are in the competitive sports industry.

So you've got the risk associated with keeping him. I'm not sure you can screw him up much more than he already is, so I'm not seeing a lot of risk in promoting him from that standpoint.

Yet you do have the potential reward of getting real value (in terms of major league performance) by dealing your top 2006 draft pick. Maybe you can make something out of Stubbs in three years, but maybe you can polish him up over the next two months. I can tell you which plan has got fewer variables. My priority would be Stubbs' immediate value. Success there and you've got reward options abound. Plus, success there and it wouldn't exactly hurt Stubbs' development either.

No risk, no reward. Stubbs currently isn't yielding any rewards, so what are you willing to risk to change that?

camisadelgolf
06-29-2007, 05:42 PM
My theory on lower-level pitching is that so much of it is too wild to even follow a scouting report. With Stubbs being such an aggressive hitter, I believe his numbers will improve as he moves up. How's that for crazy? :KoolAid:

mkainer21
06-30-2007, 12:43 AM
My theory on lower-level pitching is that so much of it is too wild to even follow a scouting report. With Stubbs being such an aggressive hitter, I believe his numbers will improve as he moves up. How's that for crazy? :KoolAid:

As crazy as it sounds, I agree! Just an honest opinion.....The pitchers are wild and the umpires are not as consistant as what he is used . He will get better with time. I have been watching him since he was 10, and he has hit at every level, yes he will strike out alot, but he will be OK!

HokieRed
07-01-2007, 01:14 AM
Just a note on one we passed on to take Stubbs. Max Scherzer, 2006 Diamondbacks pick from Missouri, went 6 scoreless in his last start, striking out 11, at AA. 2.45 ERA for the year. If you're looking for a comparable prospect in Reds system, probably would be Cueto, though Scherzer is having success at a higher level already.

dougdirt
07-01-2007, 01:21 AM
Seriously do we really need to bring up every player we 'passed on' everytime they do well?

My turn: Just a note on one we passed on to take Barry Larkin. Barry Bonds, 1985 Pirates pick from Arizona State, went on to break the all time HR record and win 7 Most Valuable Player Awards, and it probably should have been 9.

camisadelgolf
07-01-2007, 03:28 AM
The Reds passed on Jesus Christ in the 1983 draft. Can you just imagine if they used a pick on that guy? People would fill the stadium every night just to watch his miracles on the field. But instead, we have to live with the knowledge that the Reds used a pick on someone else who arguably died for our sins: Chris Sabo.

Tony Cloninger
07-02-2007, 02:11 AM
That great 70's scouting team passed on Mike Schimdt...Buddy Bell and Dave Parker.

If you were not small and fast (MS, BB) and had baggage (DP) you were not a Reds player. I venture to say after 1970-71.....the Reds scouting and drafting for the minors for pretty much the rest of the decade....was worse than anything DO and WK have done already. Seriously......it was all HS players.....and they all had to run fast......they figured if KLU could make Concepcion and Geronimo into hitters....he could make anyone a hitter.
They pissed on Moneyball type of players.

15fan
07-02-2007, 10:50 AM
Here's the thing with Stubbs.

He was a high risk, low reward proposition. There were obvious warning signs regarding his inability to make contact on a regular basis. Everyone knew it going in.

If the Reds were drafting late in the first round, or didn't have a first round pick & took Stubbs with a supplemental pick, that's fine. But the Reds took him in a year when they had a top 10 pick. #8 to be exact. Other than the first 7 guys drafted, the Reds could have taken anyone. #8 is way too early to be reaching on a pick. And there can't be any doubt that Stubbs was/is a reach. Especially in an organization that already had Junior and Dunn at the ML level, and Jay Bruce in the low minors. The Reds didn't need another OF as much as they needed a bona fide pitching, MI, or C prospect.

If (and with each passing day, that "if" is growing exponentially) Stubbs manages to find a way to make regular contact, then maybe the Reds will have a nice role player 3-4 years down the road. #8 is way to high of a pick to be coming up with a long shot role player.

Drew's 2007 YTD stats (http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Drew%2520Stubbs&pos=OF&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=453211) are enough to make a grown man cry. No power, lots of Ks, and a so-so SB rate. That sounds a lot like the second coming of Kerry Robinson or Curtis Godwin.

Whoopie.

Edit: FWIW, here are the 2007 YTD numbers (http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Matt%2520Antonelli&pos=2B&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=453327)that my cyber #1 pick is putting up. BBs and Ks are basically a push, there's ample evidence of power, and much more efficient on the base paths. Spent time in one of the big NCAA baseball conferences, and has converted nicely to a MI slot. Not a bad pick for a guy who doesn't even have a BA subscription, eh?

camisadelgolf
07-02-2007, 11:33 AM
Actually, the reason he was taken so high was because of his high reward potential. The understanding was that he was always going to strike out a lot, but he would make up for it with the rest of his game. At the time of the draft, I don't think anyone considered the pick a reach since many people (so-called 'experts' included) agreed that he was either the best or second-best position player available in the entire draft.

Although Dunn, Griffey, and Bruce were already in the system, Griffey is old, Dunn isn't a 'pitching-and-defense' guy (which is the direction the organization is headed), and Bruce hasn't proven anything at the ML level. That's also not to mention the argument that drafting for best player available is a better strategy than drafting for position. Baseball America ranked Stubbs as the second-best prospect in the draft. Several mock drafts had Stubbs going before the eight pick.

:deadhorse:deadhorse:deadhorse:deadhorse:deadhorse :deadhorse:deadhorse:deadhorse:deadhorse:deadhorse :deadhorse:deadhorse:deadhorse

HokieRed
07-02-2007, 11:45 AM
My citing Scherzer wasn't just about noting one we passed on but also a way of reminding people what real progress in the minor leagues looks like. None of K's 2006 class has succeeded beyond very conservative age-appropriate levels. The verdict on the whole class is still out. Dorn is the one possible exception, though at 23 the FSL is where he should be. Let's put it this way. The 2006 class looks a little less exciting nearly every single day.

dougdirt
07-02-2007, 12:17 PM
My citing Scherzer wasn't just about noting one we passed on but also a way of reminding people what real progress in the minor leagues looks like. None of K's 2006 class has succeeded beyond very conservative age-appropriate levels. The verdict on the whole class is still out. Dorn is the one possible exception, though at 23 the FSL is where he should be. Let's put it this way. The 2006 class looks a little less exciting nearly every single day.

The Reds have plenty of guys to show what real progress in the minor leagues looks like. See Cueto, Johnny. See Bruce, Jay. See Bailey, Homer.

The Reds are not promoting players (Watson excluded) who seemed to deserve the promotion. There is no reason that Chris Valaika should be in Dayton, and to be honest, he probably should have started in Sarasota. However the Reds had some moronic idea to 'keep them together'. Well guys, I hate to break it to you, but they are going to have to be broken up somewhere along the lines, why hinder the development of a player or two in order to keep them playing with Logan Parker (no disrespect to him, but he is not really in the same ballpark as say Valaika or Dorn in terms of needing a promotion)?
I don't think its so much of the players performing at the levels they are as it is the Reds not placing them at the correct levels.

HokieRed
07-02-2007, 01:38 PM
I'm in complete agreement that there should be more aggressive promotion. But nothing I said is changed by your post. The three prospects you cite are all O'Brien's people. No one from the 2006 draft has performed at anything but age-appropriate levels. Watson, Dorn, and maybe Valaika seem interesting. We really don't know anything significant yet about K's 2006 draft. One question I think reasonable to ask at this point, given the slowness of moving these guys along and K's general horrible record of major league talent evaluation, is whether he's hiding them. Are the Low-A guys being kept there because they aren't really the prospects he'd like them to be seen as?

dougdirt
07-02-2007, 02:37 PM
I never claimed anything about the 2006 draft. I said that we know what real progress in the minor leagues is and cited examples.

I will say that the Reds have me questioning whether they know how to run a minor league organization.