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View Full Version : Reds should promote two starting pitchers and more



Kc61
07-03-2007, 08:01 AM
Reds should trade Lohse promptly and should make Belisle the long reliever. Livingston and Dumatrait should be promoted and moved into the rotation. Alternative -- make Livingston a rotation starter and Dumatrait in long relief.

Livingston is questionable as a starter because he doesn't throw hard, but he seems to "know how to pitch" well and could be a fourth or fifth starter. Dumatrait hasn't been great and he walks too many, but he is of age now and we might as well see how he does against the big guys. Both have ERAs in the "3"s, have done reasonably well at AAA. I don't think Reds need to wait for them to "dominate" AAA -- move on this now.

Lohse is obviously not going to be re-signed so there is no reason to keep him. As for Belisle, well, I don't see him as a successful starting pitcher and his numbers are starting to show it. We can debate this, but Belisle was more successful, and perhaps can be successful, as a multi-inning reliever. And the Reds can use multi-innings relievers.

In the pen, room must soon be made for Burton and for Bray. Likely Gosling will go down. Stanton or Weathers should be moved to make room for the other, although I wouldn't move Weathers without a good return coming back. (Wouldn't mind Reds keeping Weathers since the team can only win games he pitches.)

Livingston, Dumatrait, Bray, Burton. Then, ultimately, when ready Medlock, although let him conquer AAA first.

P.S. -- Position player side -- Votto, Keppinger, Freel (when ready) and . . . Chris Dickerson. All should come up pretty soon. Hatteberg should be moved to give Votto his shot. Castro seems ready to move on, Keppinger should come up. (Give him some AAA games at shortstop!) Freel, of course, should be ready soon. I would move Moeller to give Ryan his place on the bench. Finally, I would find a place for Dickerson as the fifth outfielder. I think the Reds can use a guy like him for late inning defense in centerfield. Actually, probably makes sense to deal Conine to make room for him. Bench would be Valentin, Freel, Keppinger, Hopper, Dickerson. (Maybe Freel can play some first base against lefties in this scheme.)

All this helps point to the future. And if Dunn or Griffey is dealt, more new blood can join in.

BearcatShane
07-03-2007, 08:18 AM
I wouldn't give up on Belisle just yet. I did some research this morning and look at these numbers I found.

In about 230 career innings Matt Belisle has a 4.56 ERA.

In Aaron Harang's first 315 career innings his ERA was 4.97.

You just have to let Belisle learn and adjust. I'd bet his ERA is in the low 4's in 2008.

Kc61
07-03-2007, 08:27 AM
I wouldn't give up on Belisle just yet. I did some research this morning and look at these numbers I found.

In about 230 career innings Matt Belisle has a 4.56 ERA.

In Aaron Harang's first 315 career innings his ERA was 4.97.

You just have to let Belisle learn and adjust. I'd bet his ERA is in the low 4's in 2008.

Really disagree. Belisle's major league innings before this year were in the bullpen. He gives up so many hits, gets hit so steadily, that it's hard to see him being a sub 5 ERA starter.

bucksfan2
07-03-2007, 08:30 AM
Here is what I do. Livingston and Dumatrait are brought up to the big club. Dumatrait is inserted in Belisle's slot and Livingston pitches long relief. Keppinger and Votto are brought up with the hopes of Hatty being traded and maybe Castro released. I look at trading both Valentine and Conine to teams that may want their tools. I bring up Dickerson and see if he could be usefull as a defensive replacement and also a pinch runner. I stick Lohse in the pen as a set up man or maybe even the closer. I see what I can get in return for Weathers. I also look for the best deal I can get for Dunn or Freel (probably nothing for Freel becasue of the injury). I am sick of seing this team playing the way it is and if they are going to lose 100 games then I want to see the young guys doing it.

TStuck
07-03-2007, 09:10 AM
In the scenario above, if you move Hatte, Conine & Valentin....who backs up Votto at first? Also, while I didn't think it possible to have a weaker hitting bench than we currently have, the bench proposed above may just be that.:eek:

Redmachine2003
07-03-2007, 09:43 AM
Belisle has had 8 good starts out of his 16 this year. I would leave him in the Rotation the rest of the year to see if he has what it takes to be a starter.

Kc61
07-03-2007, 09:54 AM
In the scenario above, if you move Hatte, Conine & Valentin....who backs up Votto at first? Also, while I didn't think it possible to have a weaker hitting bench than we currently have, the bench proposed above may just be that.:eek:

It would not be a powerful bench. But with Keppinger, Freel, Hopper and Valentin you have four guys who can get on base and get base hits. Dickerson's role would be defense and speed in the outfield -- Reds can use that and I'd like to see if he has a future.

As I said in my post, the righty first baseman is an issue, but perhaps Freel or Keppinger could fill in there. Or Hopper.

The point is not to have a fully formed bench for a contending type team. You may have noticed -- the Reds' chances for the World Series this year are not overly strong. The idea is to get a group of bench players who could potentially help in the future and see how they do. They are available, and I think ready. And some of these new faces could actually bring some excitement.

bucksfan2
07-03-2007, 10:11 AM
As I said in my post, the righty first baseman is an issue, but perhaps Freel or Keppinger could fill in there. Or Hopper.


No one platoons at 1b with Votto. I don't care how bad he is doing I dont want to see some manager bench Votto because they dont know if he can handle lefties yet. That could be one of the dumbest ideas to do to one of your best prospects. When Votto comes up the job should be his.

Red Leader
07-03-2007, 10:23 AM
No one platoons at 1b with Votto. I don't care how bad he is doing I dont want to see some manager bench Votto because they dont know if he can handle lefties yet. That could be one of the dumbest ideas to do to one of your best prospects. When Votto comes up the job should be his.

Completely agree.

The Reds won't be able to trade EVERYBODY. Likely one of Conine or Valentin will still be on the team and probably both of them. One of those two should be released and the other kept as Votto's BACKUP. No guarantee of playing time for the backup, no platoon, just strictly maybe a once a week or once every two week start for the backup. Let Votto get his cuts in against RH and LH pitchers and learn.

Benihana
07-03-2007, 10:49 AM
I leave Belisle in the rotation. I really believe he has what it takes to be a pretty good back-of-the-rotation starter. I call up Dumatrait to take Lohse's place once he is traded. I call up Livingston to take Homer Bailey's place in the rotation after sending him back down to AAA to work on his secondary stuff. I do everything I can to trade Hatteberg (package him with Weathers?) and bring up Votto by the end of the month to be the EVERYDAY 1B for the rest of the year.


For the rest of the year, I go with a rotation of

Harang
Arroyo
Dumatrait
Belisle
Livingston

I also call up Calvin Medlock and Jared Burton to pitch in the bullpen alongside McBeth, Coffey, and Coutlangous for the rest of the year. Let's use this worthless season to see what we got.

Reds Freak
07-03-2007, 11:14 AM
I leave Belisle in the rotation. I really believe he has what it takes to be a pretty good back-of-the-rotation starter. I call up Dumatrait to take Lohse's place once he is traded. I call up Livingston to take Homer Bailey's place in the rotation after sending him back down to AAA to work on his secondary stuff. I do everything I can to trade Hatteberg (package him with Weathers?) and bring up Votto by the end of the month to be the EVERYDAY 1B for the rest of the year.


For the rest of the year, I go with a rotation of

Harang
Arroyo
Dumatrait
Belisle
Livingston

I also call up Calvin Medlock and Jared Burton to pitch in the bullpen alongside McBeth, Coffey, and Coutlangous for the rest of the year. Let's use this worthless season to see what we got.

I like these ideas. People forget that Belisle is starting full time for the first time since the minor leagues. I don't think it's realistic to expect a guy to adjust from pitching 70-80 innings a year to 150-200 innings a year in one off season without taking some lumps. Coming into spring training he still didn't know if he was going to start or come out of the bullpen. I'm sure he is feeling that "dead arm" right now, I would even consider skipping a few starts the rest of the way with him to give him a little rest. I leave him in the rotation the rest of the year, give him the off season to work on his stamina, and stick him in the back of the 08 rotation...

UC_Ken
07-03-2007, 11:17 AM
I call up Livingston to take Homer Bailey's place in the rotation after sending him back down to AAA to work on his secondary stuff.

Homer's already proved he can dominate AAA. He needs to learn to get major league hitters out. I think the reason he has been so fastball heavy is his control has been terrible. Everyone throws fastballs when they're behind in the count. If you watched the Oakland game you saw a dominant curve ball.

Red Leader
07-03-2007, 11:20 AM
Homer's already proved he can dominate AAA. He needs to learn to get major league hitters out. I think the reason he has been so fastball heavy is his control has been terrible. Everyone throws fastballs when they're behind in the count. If you watched the Oakland game you saw a dominant curve ball.

He only threw a handful of curveballs in that Oakland game. He worked the majority of that game with his fastball, and threw his change off of his fastball. His command was very good in that game, both with his fastball and his change. The curves he threw in that game were pretty good as well with 1 or 2 being excellent pitches. The other ones looked more like they were for show as they started out of the zone and stayed out of the zone, but still had good movement on them. They were "waste" pitches when he was ahead in the count.

Danny Serafini
07-03-2007, 11:35 AM
I want to see Belisle stay in the rotation to see how he holds up. I wasn't thrilled with him being in there to start the season because I didn't think his bad back would hold up to that, but since he's there and been decent I want to see if he can last the year. I'd like to see Dumatrait come up, it's getting time to see what he can do, and Bailey go back down since he never should have been called up in the first place. Votto coming up would be good, but not as long as Hatteberg is here. Votto has to start, I don't want him rotting on the bench. Keppinger for Castro would be a good switch. Right now there's no one else in Louisville I want to see up other than those returning from rehab.

Kc61
07-03-2007, 11:48 AM
I like these ideas. People forget that Belisle is starting full time for the first time since the minor leagues.... I would even consider skipping a few starts the rest of the way with him to give him a little rest. I leave him in the rotation the rest of the year, give him the off season to work on his stamina, and stick him in the back of the 08 rotation...


Matt Belisle's last starting season was at AAA in 2004. Here are some of his numbers from that season -- 5.26 ERA. 162.2 IP. 192 hits allowed.

I don't know why people think he is going to be an effective starter at the major league level.

dougdirt
07-03-2007, 12:06 PM
Matt Belisle's last starting season was at AAA in 2004. Here are some of his numbers from that season -- 5.26 ERA. 162.2 IP. 192 hits allowed.

I don't know why people think he is going to be an effective starter at the major league level.

He is older, has a better idea of what he is doing, has the experience and has better stuff now than he did 3 years ago?

Kc61
07-03-2007, 12:23 PM
He is older, has a better idea of what he is doing, has the experience and has better stuff now than he did 3 years ago?

He is also is facing major league hitters, rather than the AAA guys to whom he gave up a 5.26 ERA and 192 hits in 162 innings.

Superdude
07-03-2007, 12:31 PM
Here is what I do. Livingston and Dumatrait are brought up to the big club. Dumatrait is inserted in Belisle's slot and Livingston pitches long relief.

That's just dumb. I think everyone on FSN and WLW is required by contract to get excited everytime Phil Dumatrait is mentioned. If he was black, maybe you could attribute it to some bizzare form of restitution, but he's not, so I have no reasonable explanation. The guy is not a good pitcher and unless something wierd happens, will never be a passable major league starter. A K:BB ratio of 1.35 at AAA does not translate to major league success.

Why replace Belisle? Unless I made a mistake, which isn't all that unlikely I guess, Belisle's DIPS ERA is sitting at a tidy 4.55 right now. His ERA's a little higher, but his peripherals are darn solid for a back rotation starter. He's also still pretty young and has good stuff leading me to believe that his cieling is not yet reached.

dougdirt
07-03-2007, 12:34 PM
He also is facing major league hitters, rather than the AAA guys to whom he gave up a 5.26 ERA and 192 hits in 162 innings.

And he is also more mature, has better stuff and more experience. He is also healthy for the first time in a long time.

Matt Belisle currently sports a 4.08 Defensive independent ERA. That suggests that he is and will continue to perform fine.

Benihana
07-03-2007, 12:40 PM
Agreed. Belisle should be penned (not penciled) in for the #5 starter for the next three years.

If things pan out as planned, Harang, Arroyo, Bailey, and Cueto will occupy those other four spots for the said time frame.

reds44
07-03-2007, 12:43 PM
Matt Belisle is a better pitcher then both Livingston and Dumatrait. In fact, I'd rather see Gardner or Ramirez up here before Livingston or Dumatrait. The reason everyone likes them is because they are left handed, but that doesn't change that they are not good.

Replacing Belisle with either of them would be a horrible move by the Reds.

baseballguy
07-03-2007, 12:44 PM
I like Benihana's idea... I think this could work.;)

camisadelgolf
07-03-2007, 03:10 PM
I think Belisle is perfect for long relief and spot starts. I just don't think he's quite good enough to be a #3 or #4 starter. Maybe a #5 starter, but I'd rather have someone with a higher ceiling there.

mth123
07-03-2007, 08:56 PM
I leave Belisle in the rotation. I really believe he has what it takes to be a pretty good back-of-the-rotation starter. I call up Dumatrait to take Lohse's place once he is traded. I call up Livingston to take Homer Bailey's place in the rotation after sending him back down to AAA to work on his secondary stuff. I do everything I can to trade Hatteberg (package him with Weathers?) and bring up Votto by the end of the month to be the EVERYDAY 1B for the rest of the year.


For the rest of the year, I go with a rotation of

Harang
Arroyo
Dumatrait
Belisle
Livingston

I also call up Calvin Medlock and Jared Burton to pitch in the bullpen alongside McBeth, Coffey, and Coutlangous for the rest of the year. Let's use this worthless season to see what we got.

I like this plan. Bailey needs to go back down.

Highlifeman21
07-03-2007, 09:51 PM
I like this plan. Bailey needs to go back down.

The PR stunt that was the promotion of Homer Bailey should have never happened in the first place.

Over the course of the rest of 2007, there's a slew of guys in AAA and AA who should get some sort of audition at the big league level.

2007 is over, 2008 doesn't look good, so let's look ahead to 2009.

AmarilloRed
07-04-2007, 01:44 AM
I like this plan. Bailey needs to go back down. Homer Bailey has nothing left to prove at AAA. The only reason he would be sent down is to work on his pitches; he can do that here against major league hitters. Sending him down might damage his confidence. Lohse should be traded, and I would give Dumatrait or Livingston his spot. Belisle has done very well in the no. 5 spot in the rotation

mth123
07-04-2007, 05:20 AM
Homer Bailey has nothing left to prove at AAA. The only reason he would be sent down is to work on his pitches; he can do that here against major league hitters. Sending him down might damage his confidence. Lohse should be traded, and I would give Dumatrait or Livingston his spot. Belisle has done very well in the no. 5 spot in the rotation

He shouldn't be "working on his pitches" during a major league game. He should work on them in the minors and throw them in the majors with confidence when refined. He also needs to complete his development. This is a kid that has never thrown much more than 140 innings in a season. He hasn't been fully developped physically to handle a starter's load in MLB IMO. I'm more concerned about that at this point than the break on his curve quite frankly.

In AAA he can:

1. Have his work and pitch load managed w/o regard to a the game sutuation as much and get to the 170 to 175 inning level that the natural development course calls for in 2007.

2. Work on his command and secondary stuff.

3. Provide a major league spot to look at others who require a more immediate cut bait decision by the end of spring, 2008 (options and all) like Livingston, Dumatrait and EZ.

4. Stop accumulating service time while accomplishing the above. He's had his taste. He can come back up in 2008 (maybe September if he hasn't pushed his upper inning limit) with a better array of pitches (I hope) and a better physical preparation for his role.

I'd like to push the timeline forward and get his "lump taking period" out of the way in this lost season, but there is still plenty more to do in AAA IMO and it has nothing to do with proving himself statistically. It has more to do with refinement and physical preparation. 2008 is his year to take his lumps in the majors with hopefully 2009 his year to take off.

kaldaniels
07-04-2007, 10:26 AM
What is the opinion on EZ. Is he out of the picture for the future???

chicoruiz
07-04-2007, 10:37 AM
I'd love to see Keppinger up here instead of Castro, but I see no evidence that Keppinger can play short, and having your starting 2B be your only backup SS (and an iffy one at that) seems a little dicey to me.

Kc61
07-04-2007, 02:18 PM
Agreed. Belisle should be penned (not penciled) in for the #5 starter for the next three years.

If things pan out as planned, Harang, Arroyo, Bailey, and Cueto will occupy those other four spots for the said time frame.

I, for one, hope the pen runs out of ink soon. And I hope it doesn't take the next three years. League now hitting over .300 against Matt with men on base, according to Grande.

reds44
07-04-2007, 02:18 PM
What is the opinion on EZ. Is he out of the picture for the future???
Don't know if he is healthy enough yet to pitch in the majors. He hasn't been extended too much in AAA.

T7-niner
07-04-2007, 02:38 PM
Don't know if he is heatly enough yet to pitch in the majors. He hasn't been extended too much in AAA.

Yeah, what the heck happened to his shoulder last year? (other than the Philly debacle)

I don't think that I've seen or heard a diagnosis. I don't recall him having surgery or anything. Anyone know?

reds44
07-04-2007, 03:10 PM
Yeah, what the heck happened to his shoulder last year? (other than the Philly debacle)

I don't think that I've seen or heard a diagnosis. I don't recall him having surgery or anything. Anyone know?
Jerry Narron.

kfm
07-04-2007, 07:11 PM
Why give up on Belisle now? He is in his first year as a starter and very easily could be 10-6 if the bullpen could hold his leads. I think he has shown enough to give him a shot. Have you looked around the league to see what passes for fifth starters these days? I like Elizardo Ramirez as well. This is another guy I would not give up on. Fans today are so incredibly impatient, guys take time to turn into what they will ulitimately be. I would trade Loshe, that was a horrible trade to begin with, and take a look at Livingston and or Dumatrait. What can it hurt? I would not send Bailey down yet, but I am a little concerned that he is not throwing nearly as hard as he used to. I have not seen him hit 98 since he came up. Is anyone else wondering if there is some reason why he is not throwing as hard as he was last year?

T7-niner
07-04-2007, 07:48 PM
Why give up on Belisle now? He is in his first year as a starter and very easily could be 10-6 if the bullpen could hold his leads. I think he has shown enough to give him a shot.

I agree on the Belisle front. This is his first year starting and somehow, he's remained healthy. Maybe coming out of the bullpen and getting warm in a hurry had an effect on his back?


I would not send Bailey down yet, but I am a little concerned that he is not throwing nearly as hard as he used to. I have not seen him hit 98 since he came up. Is anyone else wondering if there is some reason why he is not throwing as hard as he was last year?

Either two things could be a possibility. a.) I've heard a lot of talk the past week or two by the announcer regarding "taking a little off for more control." or b.) Scouts are full of it. More likely is B, IMO.

M2
07-04-2007, 09:58 PM
I like these ideas. People forget that Belisle is starting full time for the first time since the minor leagues. I don't think it's realistic to expect a guy to adjust from pitching 70-80 innings a year to 150-200 innings a year in one off season without taking some lumps. Coming into spring training he still didn't know if he was going to start or come out of the bullpen. I'm sure he is feeling that "dead arm" right now, I would even consider skipping a few starts the rest of the way with him to give him a little rest. I leave him in the rotation the rest of the year, give him the off season to work on his stamina, and stick him in the back of the 08 rotation...

That saved me a lot typing. I agree completely. Livingston and Dumatrait would do little other than get their heads handed to them in the majors. Livingston strikes me as a guy who might be able to step up over the course of a few years. Dumatrait's got nothing that's going to work in the majors. I imagine the team will toss him a start or two before the end of the season, but that will only serve to make him punchline in future seasons, a nouveau Jung Bong or Dan Serafini.

PuffyPig
07-05-2007, 01:53 PM
Really disagree. Belisle's major league innings before this year were in the bullpen. He gives up so many hits, gets hit so steadily, that it's hard to see him being a sub 5 ERA starter.


His DIPS ERA this year is 4.37, so he's pitching better than his stats indicate. It's easy to image him with an ERA sub 5, because he's pitching that well now.

He has way more potential than Livingston. Let him start for the rest of the year.