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Benihana
07-03-2007, 11:08 AM
If BA (or any other such publication) were to release a Top 100 prospects as of today, where would Jay Bruce, Johnny Cueto, and Joey Votto rank among them? The only eligibility requirement is no major league service time (so HB is no longer eligible). Would all three rank in the top ten of all of baseball? Would Jay Bruce be #1 overall? Would any other Reds prospect (Sean Watson, Chris Valaika, etc.) make the top 100? What are your thoughts?

UC_Ken
07-03-2007, 11:13 AM
I'm not a prospect expert but I assume that Bruce would be our only top 10 prospect.

Red Leader
07-03-2007, 11:23 AM
I'm not a prospect expert but I assume that Bruce would be our only top 10 prospect.

Agreed.

Bruce, IMO, should rank as a Top 5 prospect.

Votto would probably be Top 40-50.

Cueto would probably be Top 75.

Watson might be in the 90's or a special mention.

I doubt Valaika makes the list.

dougdirt
07-03-2007, 11:26 AM
Bruce somewhere 1-5.

Votto 15-30.

Cueto 60-100 somewhere.

Benihana
07-03-2007, 11:27 AM
Agreed.

Bruce, IMO, should rank as a Top 5 prospect.

Votto would probably be Top 40-50.

Cueto would probably be Top 75.

Watson might be in the 90's or a special mention.

I doubt Valaika makes the list.

I would think Bruce would be in the top 3 along with Justin Upton and maybe Clay Buchholz.

Votto would be in the top 25, and Cueto most certainly would have to be in the top 50 at the very minimum I believe.

I do agree that Watson and Valaika are fringe at best, and probably don't make the list other than a special mention- maybe for Watson only.

On a side note, I am curious as to what pitchers would be listed ahead of Cueto. Off the top of my head, I could think of the following:

Clay Buchholz BOS
Joba Chamberlain NYY
Manny Parra MIL
Clayton Kershaw LAD
Ian Kennedy NYY
Luke Hocheavar KC
Max Scherzer ARI
Nick Adenhart LAA
Matt Garza MIN
Adam Miller CLE
Jeff Niemann TB
Chuck Lofgren CLE
Carlos Carrasco PHI
David Price (once he signs) TB

Anyone else I am missing?

Red Leader
07-03-2007, 11:35 AM
I would think Bruce would be in the top 3 along with Justin Upton and maybe Clay Bucholz.

Votto would be in the top 25, and Cueto most certainly would have to be in the top 50 at the very minimum I believe.

I do agree that Watson and Valaika are fringe at best, and probably don't make the list other than a special mention- maybe for Watson only.

If I understood the first post you were asking where we thought BA / other publications would rank our prospects nationally.

There usually is a decent gap between BA rankings and other rankings (BP or other). They guage what they look for differently, so there is some variance.

I thought I would lump the two together and forecast from there. With that said, I think no matter who is doing the ranking they would both agree that Bruce is a Top 5 prospect. One might rank him #2, one might rank him #5, but they both should have him in the Top 5. Same with Votto. One might rank him #33, another might have him #44, but both should have him in the Top 40, or Top 50 at worst. Same with the others I did.


If I were to rank them, personally, I'd put Bruce at probably #2 (behind Upton) and there's an argument he could be #1.

Votto I'd probably put in the high 30's, Cueto in the high 50's / early 60's, and Watson would be in the 90's somewhere. Valaika might get a special mention from me, but does not make my Top 100.

Red Leader
07-03-2007, 11:42 AM
On a side note, I am curious as to what pitchers would be listed ahead of Cueto. Off the top of my head, I could think of the following:

Clay Bucholz BOS
Joba Chamberlain NYY
Manny Parra MIL
Clayton Kershaw LAD
Ian Kennedy NYY
Luke Hocheavar KC
Max Scherzer ARI
Nick Adenhart LAA
Matt Garza MIN
Adam Miller CLE
Jeff Niemann TB
David Price (once he signs) TB

Who else am I missing?

Well, Bailey, Hughes, Lincecum, Andrew Miller, Danks, Slowey, Hirsch and Gallardo are now ineligible as they have major league service time. So that's a lot of young pitchers that are no longer "prospects." Maybe Cueto does move up a little because of that.

BTW, You didn't name:

Scott Elbert, LAD
Mike Pelfrey, NYM
Chuck Lofgren, CLE
Mark Rogers, MIL
Chris Volstad, FLA

And that's in addition to the 12 you already named. I may be missing a couple.

dougdirt
07-03-2007, 11:45 AM
There is no way I would put Rogers or Volstad ahead of Cueto.

Guys are hitting .301 off of Volstad, he has allowed 122 hits in 99 innings....

Benihana
07-03-2007, 11:48 AM
There is no way I would put Rogers or Volstad ahead of Cueto.

Guys are hitting .301 off of Volstad, he has allowed 122 hits in 99 innings....

agreed. I intentionally left Volstad off of the list.

Red Leader
07-03-2007, 12:06 PM
There is no way I would put Rogers or Volstad ahead of Cueto.

Guys are hitting .301 off of Volstad, he has allowed 122 hits in 99 innings....

Yeah, Volstad might be a bit of a reach to be ahead of Cueto, Rogers, too, as he is coming back from injury. It's no secret that the Marlins rush their pitchers through leagues, though and that could be contributing to Volstad's BAA. Volstad is 21 years old and has a 72/29 K/BB rate in that league in 99 IP.

dougdirt
07-03-2007, 12:10 PM
Scratch that.

Volstad is 20 and in the FSL. Not exactly being rushed through, although he is still young for the level. Travis Wood is 20 in the FSL and I would argue is having a better season. I would even argue that he is a better prospect than Volstad is.

New Fever
07-03-2007, 12:49 PM
Juan Francisco and Devin Mesaraco will definitely be in consideration for a Top 100 list such as Baseball America's. The back end of their list is usually littered with "potential" guys.

Benihana
07-03-2007, 01:06 PM
Juan Francisco and Devin Mesaraco will definitely be in consideration for a Top 100 list such as Baseball America's. The back end of their list is usually littered with "potential" guys.

Francisco maybe, Mesoraco IMO would be a stretch at this point, even with his potential. I think you need to at least play in Billings before you can get consideration.

Red Leader
07-03-2007, 01:08 PM
Francisco maybe, Mesoraco IMO would be a stretch at this point, even with his potential. I think you need to at least play in Dayton before you can get consideration.

Not on Baseball America's rankings, at least I believe I've seen a handful of recently drafted prospects on their lists in the past.

New Fever
07-03-2007, 01:16 PM
There were 17 to 18 draft picks from last year's draft in the Top 100 last year.

Benihana
07-03-2007, 03:04 PM
There were 17 to 18 draft picks from last year's draft in the Top 100 last year.

Yes, but how many were high school guys with ETA's more than three years out?

camisadelgolf
07-03-2007, 03:13 PM
In the past, being a #1 draft pick by the Reds made you a top-ten prospect with the Reds according to Baseball America. It's not that they're quality draft picks but more that the Reds' farm system has lacked talent.

HBP
07-03-2007, 03:47 PM
Francisco maybe, Mesoraco IMO would be a stretch at this point, even with his potential. I think you need to at least play in Billings before you can get consideration.

Francisco is quite a stretch as well. Though he's having a great season for someone his age, there's still many players with better OPS numbers just in the Midwest league and his defensive numbers don't help either.

I think Fisher was going to show up on some lists if he could've kept his early season success going.

Aronchis
07-03-2007, 05:29 PM
Bruce,Votto(who may not qualify) and Cueto look to be top 50 prospects right now though Cueto's height may not rub off on those types even as unfair as that sounds.

If Wood can get healthy and improve his ERA by seasons end, he may pop up
If Fisher can rebound he will probably pop up
If Lecure can put it together he may pop up
Watson probably should be on the list if he adjusts to high A.
Francisco is probably to young and raw, but they have a tendency to overrate these types.

OnBaseMachine
07-03-2007, 05:50 PM
Jay Bruce 1-3
Joey Votto 18-25
Johnny Cueto 45-55
Sean Watson 88-95
Chris Valaika 95-100
Carlos Fisher 100-110

reds44
07-03-2007, 05:52 PM
I don't see Valaika having enough potential to warrant a top 100 ranking.

The rest I can't argue with assuming Watson adjust to Sarasota and Fisher gets through his dead arm period.

camisadelgolf
07-03-2007, 06:00 PM
It feels weird seeing pitching prospects in the organization. In the past, it was always, "If this guy can put things together soon . . . " (and the 'if' would basically be something significant like adding 5 MPH to a fast-ball or mastering a couple more pitches), but now, it looks like the Reds actually have legitimate prospects. It's an exciting time (despite how the big club has performed).