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View Full Version : Jay Bruce CF or RF?



Mario-Rijo
07-05-2007, 03:39 PM
I know the title is a bit misleading but here's what I mean. I was going over some stats and found this nugget.

Over Jay Bruce's last 10 games he has this line.

CF - 6 Games, 29 PA's, 9 K's, 3 BB's, 1 SB, 2 CS, 6 hits, 3 Dbl's, 0 HR's

RF - 4 Games, 19 PA's, 1 K, 2 BB's, 0 SB, 0 CS, 9 Hits, 4 Dbl's, 3 HR's


(Did have one late inning switch from RF to CF, but it shouldn't have any effect on my theory)

Now I know that 10 games is a small sample size but I don't have access to further game logs in which they show me the CF to RF equation. Also even though it's only 10 games it's a dramatic effect on both K's and Power.

Also I wonder if he has a different mindset when playing CF as opposed to RF, as he seems to be taking more pitches and trying to steal bases when he plays CF and swinging it more often when he plays RF.

So the question is does he need to better his conditioning? Is his offensive approach altered when playing CF? Both? Or is it that he is simply a more natural RF, and thus his better long term success relies on him playing RF?

I come to the latter conclusion but I still wonder if he wouldn't benefit from some better conditioning and soon. CF needs to be taken away from him IMHO, he's a RF! And from an interview I read last yr he would be fine with it, if the organization felt the need.

I wish I had the time and access to check out further game logs. Perhaps something we could note from here on out when doing minor league updates. When he plays CF or RF and if & when he switches in a game. I don't do minor league game updates so if anyone would oblige me I would appreciate it, if not that's ok too.

BearcatShane
07-05-2007, 03:43 PM
I say left field if we still have Griffey when he comes up. Bruce in left, Hamilton in center, and Griffey in right.

Red Leader
07-05-2007, 03:44 PM
Jay Bruce worked out with Adam Dunn in Texas all off season and they both reportedly trained very, very hard and neither of them took days off. I don't think there is a conditioning issue with Jay.

pedro
07-05-2007, 03:51 PM
I say left field if we still have Griffey when he comes up. Bruce in left, Hamilton in center, and Griffey in right.

Griffey really needs to be in LF.

AmarilloRed
07-05-2007, 04:11 PM
I see Bruce as being Griffey's successor in right. However he could move to left if Adam Dunn is traded. Hamilton is in center barring an injury. I can't see Junior making another position change.

Mario-Rijo
07-05-2007, 04:16 PM
I see Bruce as being Griffey's successor in right. However he could move to left if Adam Dunn is traded. Hamilton is in center barring an injury. I can't see Junior making another position change.

If it's my team he moves to LF. Griffey's already stated that it usually goes 3 yrs in RF, 2 yrs in LF and 1 yr at 1B for aging CF's. Sounds too me like we may move that timetable up one yr minimum to LF.

Mario-Rijo
07-05-2007, 04:19 PM
Jay Bruce worked out with Adam Dunn in Texas all off season and they both reportedly trained very, very hard and neither of them took days off. I don't think there is a conditioning issue with Jay.

That's true RL I had forgotten about that. I guess it's simple then either it's the result of a small sample size which is quite possible or he isn't cut out for CF any longer which is just as if not moreso likely.

Not saying he can't do it, just saying for his own best interests at the plate he/the organization may want to make the move to RF concrete now so he can continue to develop in RF and at the plate.

RedsManRick
07-05-2007, 04:23 PM
If it's my team he moves to LF. Griffey's already stated that it usually goes 3 yrs in RF, 2 yrs in LF and 1 yr at 1B for aging CF's. Sounds too me like we may move that timetable up one yr minimum to LF.

Yup. Junior spent his first 2 RF years still playing CF...

dougdirt
07-05-2007, 05:24 PM
Jay had a .964 OPS as a CF while in Sarasota and a .967 OPS as a RF while in Sarasota.

I think there are small sample sizes at work here.

Red Leader
07-05-2007, 05:27 PM
Jay had a .964 OPS as a CF while in Sarasota and a .967 OPS as a RF while in Sarasota.

I think there are small sample sizes at work here.

So, historically, he's been a better hitter when he plays RF, then. ;)

M2
07-05-2007, 06:09 PM
Jay Bruce worked out with Adam Dunn in Texas all off season and they both reportedly trained very, very hard and neither of them took days off. I don't think there is a conditioning issue with Jay.

Why I thought they spent all day playing pong and drinking milkshakes. Haven't you heard? Adam Dunn is lazy and it rubs off on everyone who shares his air space.

Other thoughts -

1) I don't think we have to worry too much about where Jr. will be playing when Bruce arrives. At most they'll have a three-month overlap, though that could be a non-issue by the end of this month.

2) Supposedly Bruce is fairly prototype for RF. I'd look to put him in his optimum position and then pair him with an elite flychaser in CF.

Mario-Rijo
07-05-2007, 06:14 PM
Jay had a .964 OPS as a CF while in Sarasota and a .967 OPS as a RF while in Sarasota.

I think there are small sample sizes at work here.

Good point and although it may not matter to some, is his OBP/SLG reversed somewhat substantially in one as opposed to the other?

Kc61
07-05-2007, 06:16 PM
The outfield ultimately should be -- Bruce LF; Hamilton RF: some true centerfielder to be acquired or from system CF.

Mario-Rijo
07-05-2007, 06:28 PM
The outfield ultimately should be -- Bruce LF; Hamilton RF: some true centerfielder to be acquired or from system CF.

I think it should be, Hamilton CF, Bruce RF and a Hammer RH Bat in LF. Hamilton can play CF w/ relative ease, he may not have elite range there but it's better than avg.

Of course if the Reds get lucky someday it will be.

LF - Bruce
CF - Stubbs (But this is looking bleek)
RF - Hamilton

dougdirt
07-05-2007, 06:59 PM
Hamilton is actually a slightly below average CF in terms of range.
I don't know where the Reds look for a CF if they don't want to use Bruce or Hamilton there, but if Bruce comes onto the scene and hits like he has hit and Hamilton continues to post an OPS over .800, which there is no reason why he shouldnt, then put Chris Dickerson out there in CF. He wont hit a ton, but he will catch everything in CF.

Aronchis
07-05-2007, 07:07 PM
Hamilton is actually a slightly below average CF in terms of range.
I don't know where the Reds look for a CF if they don't want to use Bruce or Hamilton there, but if Bruce comes onto the scene and hits like he has hit and Hamilton continues to post an OPS over .800, which there is no reason why he shouldnt, then put Chris Dickerson out there in CF. He wont hit a ton, but he will catch everything in CF.

Yup, if you really want to improve the outfield, deal off the current outfield for young pitching and bring up Dickerson/Bruce next year. That will solve the range problems though the offense will probably take a dive for a year. But how much better it makes the pitching with the improved defense is the question(also with the arms aquired).

Mario-Rijo
07-05-2007, 07:07 PM
Hamilton is actually a slightly below average CF in terms of range.
I don't know where the Reds look for a CF if they don't want to use Bruce or Hamilton there, but if Bruce comes onto the scene and hits like he has hit and Hamilton continues to post an OPS over .800, which there is no reason why he shouldnt, then put Chris Dickerson out there in CF. He wont hit a ton, but he will catch everything in CF.

Actually Hamilton is slightly better than avg.

2007:

His RF - 2.43
Lg RF - 2.39

Of course his Right Field #'s are dramatically better.

His RF - 3.11
Lg RF - 2.20

dougdirt
07-05-2007, 07:23 PM
Actually Hamilton is slightly better than avg.

2007:

His RF - 2.43
Lg RF - 2.39

Of course his Right Field #'s are dramatically better.

His RF - 3.11
Lg RF - 2.20

range factor is a very poor way of looking at defense. He may get a lot more fly balls in the outfield than other guys, therefore his range factor will be higher.

David Gassko wrote this article for The Hardball Times (http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/d-fence/) on June 14th and at the bottom is has a spreadsheet for every player for each position. In CF Ryan Freel has 'saved 6 more runs' than Josh Hamilton has in CF this year. Freel rates as +3 and Hamilton rates as -3. He is actually rated at -1, -2 and -3 at each outfield position.

Mario-Rijo
07-05-2007, 07:31 PM
Yup, if you really want to improve the outfield, deal off the current outfield for young pitching and bring up Dickerson/Bruce next year. That will solve the range problems though the offense will probably take a dive for a year. But how much better it makes the pitching with the improved defense is the question.

It would make them a great deal better IMO. They are in the upper 3rd of the league in allowing HR's (6th Best in the NL) and Walks (3rd Best in the NL). The main part of this staffs issues are that they give up way too many hits, don't K enough (especially the pen) and are let down by defensive issues.

Part of those issues are the range factor. Few guys on this field have avg. range or above.

The exceptions are BP, Hammy, Freel, Hopper and Ross.

Gonzo is slightly below avg as is EEE

Dunn, Griffey, Hatteberg, Conine, Valentin, Castro are all well below.

Degenerate39
07-05-2007, 07:36 PM
Dunn in left, Bruce in center, and Hambone in right if Griffey retire or is traded.

Mario-Rijo
07-05-2007, 07:37 PM
range factor is a very poor way of looking at defense. He may get a lot more fly balls in the outfield than other guys, therefore his range factor will be higher.

David Gassko wrote this article for The Hardball Times (http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/d-fence/) on June 14th and at the bottom is has a spreadsheet for every player for each position. In CF Ryan Freel has 'saved 6 more runs' than Josh Hamilton has in CF this year. Freel rates as +3 and Hamilton rates as -3. He is actually rated at -1, -2 and -3 at each outfield position.

Well coincidentally Freel is far superior in RF than most anyone playing CF due to his pure speed. If Freel didn't have bad jumps, take bad angles and make more errors he would be the answer full time if his body could take it.

However how that guy came to that conclusion is beyond me, it only takes a ballgame of each to see who the better CF is IMHO. Again Freel has the superior range but he cannot compete with Hamilton who is far superior in every other way, and he is still above avg in CF.

dougdirt
07-05-2007, 07:43 PM
Well coincidentally Freel is far superior in RF than most anyone playing CF due to his pure speed. If Freel didn't have bad jumps, take bad angles and make more errors he would be the answer full time if his body could take it.

However how that guy came to that conclusion is beyond me, it only takes a ballgame of each to see who the better CF is IMHO. Again Freel has the superior range but he cannot compete with Hamilton who is far superior in every other way, and he is still above avg in CF.

Freel takes bad routes and gets bad jumps, but still gets to a lot more baseballs.

Mario-Rijo
07-05-2007, 10:29 PM
Freel takes bad routes and gets bad jumps, but still gets to a lot more baseballs.

Yeah I suppose that's so, but he also get's to more OF's if ya know what I mean.

KronoRed
07-05-2007, 10:55 PM
Yeah I suppose that's so, but he also get's to more OF's if ya know what I mean.

He needs a bell on him

MasonBuzz3
07-06-2007, 12:55 AM
I think that Hamilton will be a suitable/above average CF in the near future. The guy has only played what, 15 games, in the past 4 years? I think that his routes to balls, and every other aspect of defense will only get better with the more games that he plays. That being said, he will be a tremendous RF if that's where his future is. gotta love that arm

BoydsOfSummer
07-06-2007, 01:41 AM
Milton needs to toss more innings. I'll have a better read on flycatcher ability then.

I know y'all had forgotten, I just thought I'd remind ya that it could be worse.

malcontent
07-07-2007, 12:55 PM
I think it should be, Hamilton CF, Bruce RF and a Hammer RH Bat in LF.

You can have your hammer RH bat in LF (will Frazier suffice?), so long as the Reds edge out the Nationals in the Alvarez (LH 3B) sweepstakes.

Chi-Town Red
07-07-2007, 02:30 PM
Dunn in left, Bruce in center, and Hambone in right if Griffey retire or is traded. sounds good:thumbup:

AmarilloRed
07-07-2007, 04:05 PM
You're assuming Dunn is not traded for 2 40- year old relievers at the trading deadline.:yikes:

kaldaniels
07-08-2007, 12:41 AM
What are the odds Bruce gets promoted by Aug 4 (the date I just bought Lookouts tickets for)....anyone???

dougdirt
07-08-2007, 01:50 AM
not good.

uoduck1017
07-08-2007, 02:11 AM
You can have your hammer RH bat in LF (will Frazier suffice?), so long as the Reds edge out the Nationals in the Alvarez (LH 3B) sweepstakes.

A lot of people have expressed interest in both Alvarez and Matusz. I will defer to our prospect experts as to who should be taken #1.