PDA

View Full Version : Reds Midseason Prospect Assessment



Benihana
07-05-2007, 03:30 PM
As we approach the All Star Break, I thought I would offer a midyear assessment of the Reds farm system and the prospects to watch going forward. I provided both a ranking system as well as a grade assigned to each prospect. The criteria is a combination both of ceiling as well as results to date. So while a Drew Stubbs may have a higher ceiling, Justin Turner's performance thus far merits him a slightly higher ranking.

GRADE A PROSPECTS

1. Jay Bruce OF 20 AA

One of the very best prospects in all of the game, Bruce looks to be the Reds #3 hitter and starting RF for many, many years. ETA: late 2008

2. Joey Votto 1B/OF AAA

Votto has done nothing but perform, and will be a Reds regular by the end of the month, as soon as Krivsky can find a taker for Hattenine. ETA: Any day

3. Johnny Cueto 21 AA

With Homer in the majors, Cueto takes the reigns as the organization's top pitching prospect. With his stunning debut in AA (1-0, 0.69 ERA, 19K's in 13 IP) every outing he has from here on out will be under the microscope. Hopefully he pairs with Bailey to fill out the rotation for years to come. ETA: late 2008

GRADE B PROSPECTS

4. Travis Wood 20 LHP A+

Coming off injury, Wood ranks high as the organization's sole premier left handed pitching prospect. He has been very inconsistent since returning, yet remains very young for his level. ETA: 2010

5. Sean Watson 21 RHP A+

Watson has had some shaky outings since being promoted from Dayton, yet remains as the prize thus far from 2006's draft class. He should get back on track as he adjusts to the competition, and with a strong finish to the year could even start 2008 at AA. ETA: late 2009/early 2010

6. Juan Francisco 20 3B/OF A

Francisco is a very intriguing prospect, yet he remains extremely raw. He has perhaps the best power of anyone in the low level minors, yet his defense and his plate discipline leave alot to be desired. He should move to a corner OF spot in the next year. ETA: 2010/2011

7. Chris Valaika 21 INF A+

Valaika has much better discipline and defense than Francisco, and plays a more premium position, yet lacks Francisco's upside. He will most likely move to either 2B or 3B in the next year, but has done nothing but perform since being taken in the 3rd round of last year's draft, thus earning a promotion this week to Sarasota. ETA: 2010

8. Devin Mesoraco 18 C Rookie

Mesoraco's quick signing after the draft will hopefully get him the seasoning he needs to adjust to professional ball. He ranks this high because of his high upside potential as an athletic catcher with a bat. He is the farthest from the majors of anyone on this list, yet remains one of the most interesting players to watch, especially as the organization's only true catching prospect. ETA: 2011 or beyond

9. Todd Frazier 21 3B/OF (still unsigned)

Frazier is the only unsigned player to make the list, although rumor has it that he won't be unsigned for long. He probably will be moved quickly to either 3B or a corner OF spot, but with his bat and athleticism it should not be a tough adjustment. Look for him to start in Dayton. ETA: (still unsigned)

10. Daryl Thompson 21 RHP A+

The only prospect the Reds received in The Trade, Thompson has been very solid since coming over to the Reds. Once heralded as a young Dontrelle Willis, Thompson has already had Tommy John surgery. He is the third member of the trio of pitching prospects now in Sarasota (along with Wood and Watson). ETA: 2010

GRADE C PROSPECTS

11. Sam LeCure 22 RHP AA
12. Carlos Fisher 24 RHP AA
13. Richie Gardner 25 RHP AAA
14. Justin Turner 22 2B A
15. Rafael Gonzalez 21 RHP A
16. Calvin Medlock 24 RHP AAA
17. Chris Dickerson 25 OF AAA

OTHERS TO WATCH

18. Drew Stubbs 22 CF A
19. Adam Rosales 24 INF AA
20. Tyler Pelland RHP 23 AA
21. Carlos Guevara 25 RHP AA
22. Chris Heisey 22 OF A
23. Neftali Soto 18 SS Rookie
24. Camilo Vazquez 23 LHP AA
25. Tzu Kai-Chiu 19 LHP Rookie
26. Josh Ravin 19 RHP Rookie
27. Kyle Lotzkar 19 RHP (still unsigned)
28. Josh Roenicke 21 RHP AA
29. Zack Cozart 21 SS A
30. Justin Reed 19 OF Rookie
31. Phil Valiquette 20 RHP Rookie
32. Craig Tatum 24 C AA
33. Pedro Viola 24 LHP A+
34. Brandon Waring 21 3B Rookie
35. Daniel Dorn 22 OF A+

holster10
07-05-2007, 03:39 PM
nice thought but what makes you a "qualified" talent evaluator?

please save this stuff for the pros....

thank you.

membengal
07-05-2007, 03:47 PM
nice thought but what makes you a "qualified" talent evaluator?

please save this stuff for the pros....

thank you.

Is this a joke? Because otherwise, it couldn't be ruder or more unwelcome.

Benihana, thanks for the read and the effort put into same. Much appreciated.

Red Leader
07-05-2007, 03:51 PM
nice thought but what makes you a "qualified" talent evaluator?

please save this stuff for the pros....

thank you.


Is this a joke? Because otherwise, it couldn't be ruder or more unwelcome.

I agree.

holster, please refrain from further comments like this. In the future, if you aren't interested in hearing someone's opinion of our prospects, then please refrain from posting stuff like this, or opening the thread at all. In addition, if you only want to hear the opinions of a "qualified" talent evaluator, then this isn't the place for you.

Benihana, I appreciate your taking the time to post this.

gonelong
07-05-2007, 04:04 PM
nice thought but what makes you a "qualified" talent evaluator?

What makes anyone a "qualified" talent evaluator?

More often than not the "pros" don't follow the Reds or Reds prospects anywhere near as closely as many folks on this forum. I'll take my chances with what we have here (collectivly) over most publications and most certainly over any list the organization would provide.

Nice put together Benihana.

GL

reds44
07-05-2007, 04:08 PM
nice thought but what makes you a "qualified" talent evaluator?

please save this stuff for the pros....

thank you.

:rolleyes:

I enjoyed your list Benihana, and I agreed with alot of it. Apparently you go by thinking, as do I, that Stubbs are Dickerson are very similar prospects right now.

thorn
07-05-2007, 04:16 PM
Thanks for the list Benihana, although I disagree with you on Dickerson, he's still behind Dorn, Heisey and Rosalas in my book, but he is at a higher level and I can see how you placed him there.

dougdirt
07-05-2007, 04:22 PM
Benihana, what makes Valaika have much better discipline than Francisco? They had ISO Discipline numbers of .043 and .046 while in Dayton. Valaika struck out 13 fewer times in 20 less at bats, but still was striking out at a good rate while being 2 years older. Just wondering if you saw something in person, or where the thought process was on that one.

Also, Daryl Thompson did not have TJ surgery, he had his shoulder done.

I think you underrate Craig Tatum a whole lot as well. His plate discipline is not so good, but he can hit the ball.

reds44
07-05-2007, 04:27 PM
Benihana, what makes Valaika have much better discipline than Francisco? They had ISO Discipline numbers of .043 and .046 while in Dayton. Valaika struck out 13 fewer times in 20 less at bats, but still was striking out at a good rate while being 2 years older. Just wondering if you saw something in person, or where the thought process was on that one.

Also, Daryl Thompson did not have TJ surgery, he had his shoulder done.

I think you underrate Craig Tatum a whole lot as well. His plate discipline is not so good, but he can hit the ball.
Valaika and Francisco also have the same amount of walks (17).

bucksfan2
07-05-2007, 04:37 PM
What about Keppinger, doesn't he rate as a prospect?

Stingray
07-05-2007, 04:38 PM
Good post but my uninformed take is that Calvin Medlock, Josh Roenicke, Phil Valiquette, Craig Tatum, & Daniel Dorn should all be higher on the list.

reds44
07-05-2007, 04:39 PM
What about Keppinger, doesn't he rate as a prospect?
Not anymore he doesn't. Too old, and too many chances with a big club.

chicoruiz
07-05-2007, 05:28 PM
What about Keppinger, doesn't he rate as a prospect?


Not anymore he doesn't. Too old, and too many chances with a big club.

"Too old" I might buy, but "too many chances with a big club" makes me squirm a bit. His two most recent chances were more "cups of coffee" than legitimate chances, and the one time he had more than 100 ABs he hit .284; seems harsh to downgrade a guy for that.

He's a guy in his mid- (okay, late-mid) 20s who's never had a real shot in the majors but has stung the ball everywhere in the minors. His age is a negative, but lots of guys on the list have negatives. If he could only fill in at short, he'd be a godsend to this team. If a "prospect" is a guy who has a good chance of contributing to the major league team in the future, to me he's a "prospect".

Aronchis
07-05-2007, 05:38 PM
Using that system:
1.Bruce,Votto,Cueto: This is pretty easy. After Cueto showed it was more mental than physical with his high A slump, he became a grade A prospect. The other 2 were already there.
2.Wood,Francisco,Watson are the next grouping. Wood gets a asterisk from me because of his muscle inflammation which can be pain to fully get rid of in a few weeks thus effecting performance over a long duration. But his stuff has remained good which hopefully supports little else wrong. Francisco and Watson are raw talents with big physical ceilings.
3.The next group is where the dropoff begins. Now we have entered the realm of new draft picks and interesting prospects like Rosales,Fisher or Dickerson. Somebody who is older, but may break out soon or is still struggling to put it together like Lecure, but might.
4.These are the fluff variety of prospects or to young/low in the organization. Stubbs is looking awfully fluff right now, but he may move up. Val is a pitcher who is to low in the organization but may move up if he performs well next year. Gonzo on the otherhand has not performed well in Dayton and may need to be reevaluated.

HokieRed
07-05-2007, 10:34 PM
Benihana, good list. These things are always interesting to ponder and debate about. Like Reds44, I see Dickerson and Stubbs as very similar at this point, and I like the fact you've got Dickerson ahead of Stubbs. I hope Stubbs really emerges later on, but right now he's not earned being ahead of Dickerson because whenever anyone projects Stubbs' future, what they come up with is something pretty close to what Dickerson is doing now. D is 25, at AAA, Stubbs going on 23 at low A ball, so they're pretty much on the same pace. Actually I think Dickerson is starting to get really interesting. Going in to tonight he was putting up a .792 OPS at Louisville, .835 in June, over 1 for these few games in July. He's coming on strong, just as he did in the latter half of last season at Chattanooga. Tatum and Dorn are two other guys I'd bump up the list, both based on their ability to hit the ball hard--good extra base numbers, good RBI numbers, particularly for Dorn. I know people sneer at RBI's but anybody who can drive in a run every 5 times to the plate knows how to make contact--and that does translate into runs, even if there is really no such thing as clutch hitting.

indy_dave00
07-05-2007, 11:09 PM
Chris Dickerson has not impressed me at all with his bat. Like his cousin Eric , he has great speed . Good defensive outfielder , but his bat is slider speed if you have a decent fastball you can throw it right by him.

If he hits a soft grounder he has a chance of beating it out. Personally I think he is at his max level AAA.

Also I think Josh Roenicke and his 95 mph fastball and being groomed as a closer should be higher on the list , he is in only his 2nd minor league season and closing at Chatanooga. He saved his 18th game tonight , he will be 25 in August though.


2007 Season
Team League W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV IP H R ER BB SO
SAR FSL 2 1 3.25 27 0 0 0 16 27.2 23 10 10 15 41
CHA SOU 1 1 1.27 7 0 0 0 2 7.0 4 2 1 2 11
Minors 3 2 2.86 34 18 34.2 27 12 11 17 52

Orenda
07-06-2007, 07:50 AM
Using that system:
1.Bruce,Votto,Cueto: This is pretty easy. After Cueto showed it was more mental than physical with his high A slump, he became a grade A prospect. The other 2 were already there.


No offense but wouldnt you think a poor mental approach should knock down a prospects status, in particular for a pitcher. See Kyle Lohse. His numbers were never bad just not what we were all looking for. Hopefully he just got a little more motivation with the jump.

Benihana
07-06-2007, 09:48 AM
Thanks for the comments. FWIW, while I did maintain a ranking system in he "Others to Watch" section, it is very loosely based and is more of a general grouping than anything else. The reason I didn't assign those players an actual grade was because their value can fluctuate so quickly throughout the course of the season (let alone a couple seasons), while the graded prospects were assigned grades due to both continuous performance as well as their pedigree. While their values can obviously change fairly quickly- as can any prospect's, they have established themselves through performance and/or pedigree as fixtures to watch in the Reds' minor league system, whereas the "Others" are just guys who currently are on the radar, if that makes any sense. Stubbs may be the one exception to that rule, but his extended poor performance since being drafted has dropped him down into that grouping, although he and Dickerson both remain on the fringe. Also, now that he's alledgedly signed, you can add Scott Carroll to the list of others to watch.

I do realize that Daryl Thompson had his shoulder done and not TJ surgery, apologies for the oversight. Also, while I do realize Valaika does not neccessarily have better plate discipline than Francisco (my mistake), what I meant to say was that he is more polished overall- as a fielder and a baseball player in general (not to sound too much like Jerry Narron). Medlock, Pelland, Guevara, and Roenicke all rank a little lower on the list than their performances indicate because they are relief pitchers. Whether or not thats merited is another debate. I really like Medlock as a relief prospect, and the others aren't too shabby as well.

Anyways, thanks again for your comments.

debra
07-06-2007, 11:44 AM
Have any of you seen any of these guys play in real games????

debra
07-06-2007, 12:03 PM
What is a Fulff player???? All seem to working super hard at their jobs....

BRM
07-06-2007, 12:14 PM
Have any of you seen any of these guys play in real games????

I know there are members here who go to Dragons games. Not sure about the other affiliates.

dougdirt
07-06-2007, 12:43 PM
I have seen many of these guys play in real games. Between going to games and watching them on tv and online I have seen almost all of the guys play that are above rookie ball.

westofyou
07-06-2007, 01:09 PM
nice thought but what makes you a "qualified" talent evaluator?

please save this stuff for the pros....

thank you.

Nice post, you're obviously a professional in what you do.

camisadelgolf
07-06-2007, 03:06 PM
If you go to a message board, looking for "qualified" statements, you're going to be at quite a loss. (No offense intended toward Benihana--nice list.)

gm
07-06-2007, 04:24 PM
Wither DeJesus?

Strikes Out Looking
07-06-2007, 04:40 PM
If you go to a message board, looking for "qualified" statements, you're going to be at quite a loss. (No offense intended toward Benihana--nice list.)

Well just remember, qualified personnel brought us Paul Householder, Willie Greene and Brandon Larson in the past. Benihana is just as qualified as them, IMO.

Benihana
07-07-2009, 11:01 PM
Found this in the archives. Given the posting of today's list, I think it's interesting to look back at what this list looked like exactly two years ago. Perhaps to the surprise of many, a lot of the names on the list are the same.