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bluegrassOH
07-05-2007, 06:22 PM
My fellow Reds fans, I write this today to ask the question,when will the firesale begin? In an earlier post I propposed a couple of changes that the Reds should consider making. I have recently rethought one of my positons. The Reds should keep Junior. His drive for 600 is the only thing that is going to bring fans out to the stadium for rest of the year. But as for the rest of the team, what are we waiting for? Here are three ideas that I think might work:

1) Is it not time to bring up Joey Votto yet? Scott Hatteberg has been a really nice fill in for the past couple of years but is he really the future? Votto has been playing really well this year and in my estimation is the future at first for the Reds. Any team looking for a good veteran hitter would be a perfect trade partner. You could platoon Votto and Conine for the rest of the year, making Joey feel no pressure at all, then next year bring him on full time.

2) It's time to part ways with Adam Dunn. I know that he has "stepped up" his game this year, but what does that mean? Does that mean that he is going to strike out 10 times less than last year? I was at the game yesterday and they had a stat about him. He is the only player in Reds history to hit 40 HRs, 100 RBI, 100 Runs Scored, and 100 Walks, or something like that. And I thought to myself, "They should add 100 Ks to the list as well. I think that Adam Dunn could be great, but there is no one in this system who is pushing him to be great. Why are we happy with 40 and 100? Shouldn't we be expecting 50 and 120? Not only do I fault management for not expecting more but I also fault Dunn for not pushing himself to be better.
So the time is now to trade him. We cannot pick up his 13m option next year. And even if we do that I believe that he has a no trade clause or a list of teams that he can only be traded to. Let's trade him for a solid veteran bullpen pitcher (not over-the-hill:Stanton) and a solid middle infield prospect.

3) Let's not give up on our young pitchers. I know that Bailey, Belisle, McBeth, Salmon, Gosling, Coffey, and Coulangus have all underpreformed this year, but we can't give up on them. I am not giving them the excuse not to be able to get outs but I can deal with it more than say maybe Ricky Stone, Gary Majewski, or David Weathers. Let them get through this year, no matter how tough it is, and let them get that experience.
We could trade Kyle Loshe and try to get some pitching prospect or even a little cash, bring up Phil Dumatrait, let him get some innings in and see where our rotation can be next year.

mound_patrol
07-05-2007, 06:36 PM
K's dont matter...its called On Base Percentage Dunn's is really good. As is his OPS. Trading Dunn would be a sin.

I agree we need to trade hatteberg along with conine, valentin, stanton, weathers, and lohse. I dont care if trading any of these players hurt our bench or bullpen for this year. It's time for the young talent to show if they can pitch or not.

Screwball
07-05-2007, 06:40 PM
Why are we happy with 40 and 100? Shouldn't we be expecting 50 and 120? Not only do I fault management for not expecting more but I also fault Dunn for not pushing himself to be better.


:eek: Wow, tough crowd. I suppose if he does start hitting 50 HRs and driving in 120, then we, along with Reds management, should expect him to start hitting 60 HRs and driving in 150? Easier said than done...

Degenerate39
07-05-2007, 06:45 PM
:eek: Wow, tough crowd. I suppose if he does start hitting 50 HRs and driving in 120, then we, along with Reds management, should expect him to start hitting 60 HRs and driving in 150? Easier said than done...

And if he does go 60 HRs with 150 rbis we should expect him to start hitting 70 and driving in 180 runs

baseballguy
07-05-2007, 07:08 PM
You took the words right out of my mouth... pretty much..

durl
07-05-2007, 07:10 PM
I don't think we'll see a huge fire sale although it's extremely likely that some players will be moved in the next week or so.

1) I don't have a preference regarding Votto. I would guess that he'll come up at some point this year even though it may be September. Hatteburg is indeed holding down 1B until a younger guy is ready yet I believe he has been a better all-around player (and cheaper, to boot) than Casey was. I'm glad he's here but I'm sure he'll be trade bait soon.

2) Dunn's money along with his so-so defense along with 200 K's/year make it a little more difficult to get another team to pick him up. (A lot of people here bash Dunn and yell for him to be traded but the tone is like saying to another team, "Here, take a lousy underperforming player off our hands and pay him $13 million a year.") Still, if the Reds could get a good starting pitcher or at least a very good middle reliever as part of a package, that might be a good thing.

3) In my opinion, if there's a fire sale, it will be primarily because of the young pitchers. Our bullpen is horrendous and has cost us way too many wins this year. I'm all for patience with them and some might develop into very productive pitchers. Still, I'd prefer to see Krivsky bring in some arms that have proven they can hold a lead.

redsfanmia
07-05-2007, 07:50 PM
If there is not a fire sale I will be very dissappointed. For the team to move forward and improve they have to change the style of play and the way this team is constucted.

BearcatShane
07-05-2007, 08:30 PM
K's dont matter...its called On Base Percentage Dunn's is really good. As is his OPS. Trading Dunn would be a sin.

I agree we need to trade hatteberg along with conine, valentin, stanton, weathers, and lohse. I dont care if trading any of these players hurt our bench or bullpen for this year. It's time for the young talent to show if they can pitch or not.

K's don't matter? If there's a runner on second with 0 outs and Dunn strikes out your not the least bit upset that he didn't move the runner over so a sac fly or groundout or wild pitch or passed ball or balk or a steal of home score him? Ok....



If the bases are empty and he K's it really doesn't matter too much but if there is a runner or runners on base and less than two outs and he K's that's does matter.

OSUmed2010
07-05-2007, 08:51 PM
K's don't matter? If there's a runner on second with 0 outs and Dunn strikes out your not the least bit upset that he didn't move the runner over so a sac fly or groundout or wild pitch or passed ball or balk or a steal of home score him? Ok....



If the bases are empty and he K's it really doesn't matter too much but if there is a runner or runners on base and less than two outs and he K's that's does matter.

In the grand scheme of things... an out is an out, no matter how you make it.

nate
07-05-2007, 09:15 PM
K's don't matter? If there's a runner on second with 0 outs and Dunn strikes out your not the least bit upset that he didn't move the runner over so a sac fly or groundout or wild pitch or passed ball or balk or a steal of home score him? Ok....



If the bases are empty and he K's it really doesn't matter too much but if there is a runner or runners on base and less than two outs and he K's that's does matter.

Sure it matters but why does it matter that its a strikeout versus a weak grounder or a popup?

BearcatShane
07-05-2007, 09:20 PM
Sure it matters but why does it matter that its a strikeout versus a weak grounder or a popup?

Because a weak ground ball will move the runner over. Is a grounder better than a strikeout all the time? No. But if he could move the runner over with a ground ball just 10% more of the time opposed to striking out in that situation it would help out the team.

bluegrassOH
07-05-2007, 09:36 PM
If we want to look at the grand scheme of things then Ks really do matter. BearcatShane made a great point by giving us some scenarios when getting a K DOES matter. If you strike out with a runner on, you can neither move the runner over or put the fielder in a spot to make a play. What about if you have runners in scoring position? I guess it doesn't matter if he strikes out then because according to OSUmed2010 Dunn striking out is the same as getting a sac fly.
Speaking of sac flies. I looked at his stats from this season back to 2004. He only has 7! SEVEN! Compare that to 27 from Jason Bay and 17 from Pat Burrell. And that's just guys who are comparable to Dunn.
Look I'm not saying that 40 and 100 aren't good numbers. But just imagine if he actually learned how to hit a sac and how to not strike out with runners in scoring position, he could add at least 20 RBI to his season total. I guess I just see him as not being the best that he can be. To me he should be able to hit .280-.290, 45-50, 120-130. I may be wrong. I might be deceived. Maybe all he will be able to do his whole career is hit HR or K. But I think he is better than he is playing.
To everyone that posted, "well if he hits 50/120 are you gonna ask for 60/150", that's just stupid. Let's be honest, if you think that Adam Dunn is playing to his full potential, then let me know. But if you think that he can be better, than please, don't make statements like you previously made.

jcmac3
07-05-2007, 10:33 PM
Sure it matters but why does it matter that its a strikeout versus a weak grounder or a popup?

dear god are you serious??? :bang:

nate
07-05-2007, 10:42 PM
Because a weak ground ball will move the runner over. Is a grounder better than a strikeout all the time? No. But if he could move the runner over with a ground ball just 10% more of the time opposed to striking out in that situation it would help out the team.

I'm talking about a ground ball that doesn't advance the runner.

nate
07-05-2007, 10:43 PM
dear god are you serious??? :bang:

Yes. Why does the flavor of out matter if the runner doesn't advance?

Screwball
07-05-2007, 10:50 PM
dear god are you serious??? :bang:

Dear God, are you serious?? :bang:

You guys are looking at things from a micro perspective. In specific situations, contact might be better than a strikeout. But, it might also be worse (double play). Many times it doesn't even matter, as is the case in a grounder to the left side or an infield pop-up or foul pop-up.

What it comes down to, on the macro level, is that strikeouts have no correlation to production. You don't need to strike out less to produce big time numbers, and you aren't necessarily more likely to succeed in scoring runs when you don't strikeout. For example, the Marlins, Phillies, and Reds are all in the top five in the NL in strikeouts. All 3 of them are also in the top 5 in runs scored this season. Conversely, the Cardinals and Giants have the fewest and 3rd fewest strikeouts. But they are last and 2nd last in runs scored in the NL this year, respectively.

As for individuals, look no further than Ryan Howard. Last year he was 2nd in strikeouts to Adam Dunn, yet I think he ended up having an alright season.

BearcatShane
07-05-2007, 10:57 PM
I'm talking about a ground ball that doesn't advance the runner.

So if there is a guy on second, and he hits a ground ball to second to move the runner to third, it didn't actually happen?

nate
07-05-2007, 11:11 PM
So if there is a guy on second, and he hits a ground ball to second to move the runner to third, it didn't actually happen?

If he hits the ball to the left side of the field and the runner on second can't advance and Dunn gets thrown out, how is that better than a strikeout?

You're contending that he hits the ball and the runner advanced. I'm asking how is it better if he hits the ball or pops out and the runner can't advance?

Vada Pinson Fan
07-05-2007, 11:17 PM
I'm ready to see WK make some substantial, quality moves between now and the trade deadline. Unless Krivsky is bowled over by a trade offer for Junior, I'm ok w/ keeping Griff. I hope some GM is salivating over the idea of acquiring Adam Dunn. Most likely a DH role for Adam will net the Reds the best return. Dunn is a DH type player if there ever was one. Sorry, bluegrassOH- :confused:If all you want for Dunn is a bullpenner and middle infield prospect (I know you said solid...but), I'd rather hold onto Dunn and try to better the Reds at the GM's meeting in December. Not ideal to do this but it would show the leagues the Reds don't have to rush into making a questionable deal.

Keep Harang, Phillips, Bailey, Arroyo (this yr. is an abberation for Bronson) and the minor leaguers of note.

Little doubt the Reds will finish last this year and continue to be an UNDER
.500 team for a few more years UNLESS WK can work some magic, add key free agent signings and haveNONE of the potential 2007 up-coming trades backfire.

BearcatShane
07-05-2007, 11:24 PM
If he hits the ball to the left side of the field and the runner on second can't advance and Dunn gets thrown out, how is that better than a strikeout?

You're contending that he hits the ball and the runner advanced. I'm asking how is it better if he hits the ball or pops out and the runner can't advance?

If he hits the ball to the right side there is usually a 3% chance the 3rd basemen makes an error. All I'm saying is make the defence do something, and if he makes contact there is a chance he hits a grounder to the right side and advances the runner. Will he do this everytime? No, but he would do it sometimes if he just made contact. If he only struck out 130 times a year he would be a much better offensive player. This is part of the reason he has 26 days or less in a Reds uniform.

BearcatShane
07-05-2007, 11:25 PM
I'm ready to see WK make some substantial, quality moves between now and the trade deadline. Unless Krivsky is bowled over by a trade offer for Junior, I'm ok w/ keeping Griff. I hope some GM is salivating over the idea of acquiring Adam Dunn. Most likely a DH role for Adam will net the Reds the best return. Dunn is a DH type player if there ever was one. Sorry, bluegrassOH- :confused:If all you want for Dunn is a bullpenner and middle infield prospect (I know you said solid...but), I'd rather hold onto Dunn and try to better the Reds at the GM's meeting in December. Not ideal to do this but it would show the leagues the Reds don't have to rush into making a questionable deal.

Keep Harang, Phillips, Bailey, Arroyo (this yr. is an abberation for Bronson) and the minor leaguers of note.

Little doubt the Reds will finish last this year and continue to be an UNDER
.500 team for a few more years UNLESS WK can work some magic, add key free agent signings and haveNONE of the potential 2007 up-coming trades backfire.



Actually Bronson signed a 2 year extention during the offseason.

Blue
07-05-2007, 11:29 PM
I've always thought that the Reds really need 8 fast guys who can hit the ball softly. That way, if one of them happens to get on base with no one out, and we'll be a little generous and say that that will happen 33% of the time, then if they can steal a base, then if the next two guys can hit the ball softly on the ground to the right side, and WHAMMO!!! A RUN!

Just imagine. We could score like 2 or 3 runs every game and wind up with about 400 runs scored on the season. And we wouldn't have to watch any big lazy oafs who strike out too much and are too lethargic to work on their game.

Then we could hire Marty Brennaman as manager and Jeff Brantley as our pitching coach. We might even be able to talk the great talent and character evaluator (Alberto Callaspo is a great guy!) Thom Brennaman into being our GM.

mound_patrol
07-05-2007, 11:37 PM
how about all the times where a ground ball leads to a double play. Now putting the ball in play cost two outs. so in the grand scheme of things an out is an out. His OPS and OBP is what matters. K's are just part of those equations.

BearcatShane
07-05-2007, 11:44 PM
how about all the times where a ground ball leads to a double play. Now putting the ball in play cost two outs. so in the grand scheme of things an out is an out. His OPS and OBP is what matters. K's are just part of those equations.


Yea, that the one downside for what I want Dunn to be able to do, and thats a big downside. But If he hits into 8 more DP's and moves the runner(s) over 10% more than he does now I'd take that. But Dunn is what he is and he'll take his act to a different organization shortly.

Vada Pinson Fan
07-05-2007, 11:46 PM
BearcatShane - You misread what I typed- I wrote "abberation" you read it as arbitration, it seems.

Screwball
07-05-2007, 11:51 PM
I've always thought that the Reds really need 8 fast guys who can hit the ball softly. That way, if one of them happens to get on base with no one out, and we'll be a little generous and say that that will happen 33% of the time, then if they can steal a base, then if the next two guys can hit the ball softly on the ground to the right side, and WHAMMO!!! A RUN!

Just imagine. We could score like 2 or 3 runs every game and wind up with about 400 runs scored on the season. And we wouldn't have to watch any big lazy oafs who strike out too much and are too lethargic to work on their game.

Then we could hire Marty Brennaman as manager and Jeff Brantley as our pitching coach. We might even be able to talk the great talent and character evaluator (Alberto Callaspo is a great guy!) Thom Brennaman into being our GM.

:laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh:

Gold. Pure gold.

bluegrassOH
07-06-2007, 12:20 AM
I'm ready to see WK make some substantial, quality moves between now and the trade deadline. Unless Krivsky is bowled over by a trade offer for Junior, I'm ok w/ keeping Griff. I hope some GM is salivating over the idea of acquiring Adam Dunn. Most likely a DH role for Adam will net the Reds the best return. Dunn is a DH type player if there ever was one. Sorry, bluegrassOH- :confused:If all you want for Dunn is a bullpenner and middle infield prospect (I know you said solid...but), I'd rather hold onto Dunn and try to better the Reds at the GM's meeting in December. Not ideal to do this but it would show the leagues the Reds don't have to rush into making a questionable deal.

Keep Harang, Phillips, Bailey, Arroyo (this yr. is an abberation for Bronson) and the minor leaguers of note.

Little doubt the Reds will finish last this year and continue to be an UNDER
.500 team for a few more years UNLESS WK can work some magic, add key free agent signings and haveNONE of the potential 2007 up-coming trades backfire.

That's just the thing, what do we expect to get for a guy like Dunn? The reason why the Padres picked up Milton Bradley and some other guy to platoon with him is so that they didn't have to pay the price that the Reds are going to be asking for him. I don't know if packaging him with Loshe would make any difference in the offers but right now I just don't see a contender letting go of someone for a guy who strikes out as much as Dunn does. Maybe I am wrong and have totally gotten the situation all wrong and other teams see Dunn as an All-Star caliber player. Maybe we can get a #2 starter out of him. I hope so, but as well as this season has turned out, I can only hope for someone who can get an out from the bullpen and a shortstop for the future type player.

Blue
07-06-2007, 12:47 AM
Try this on for size:

The top 5 offenses in the NL are:

Phillies
Brewers
Rockies
Marlins
Reds

The team leaders in strikeouts are:

Marlins
Padres
Reds
Phillies
Brewers

So, of the top 5 offenses, only one is not in the top 5 for strikeouts.

San Francisco and St. Louis are 14th and 15th in total strikeouts... they're the 13th and 15th best offenses, respectively.

Yeah, I sure wish the Reds struck out less. One base and one run at a time. I wish Earl Weaver were our GM, he'd make people get it.

bluegrassOH
07-06-2007, 01:42 AM
Blue, you obviously missed the whole point of this thread. I am not saying that hitting HRs aren't a good way to get things done. Trust me I love the home run. Junior is my favorite player of all time and that's what he's made a living doing. I was just merely stating the fact the for a guy with Dunn's approach at the plate he is not a very good run producer. I look at other guys who hit over 40 HRs (Berkman, Pujols, Ortiz, Howard, Morneau...the list goes on and on) and wonder what the difference is between them and Dunn. It can't be power because Adam is top 3 power in the league. It's just that the other guys can do other things to get people in.

Vada Pinson Fan
07-06-2007, 02:21 AM
That's just the thing, what do we expect to get for a guy like Dunn? The reason why the Padres picked up Milton Bradley and some other guy to platoon with him is so that they didn't have to pay the price that the Reds are going to be asking for him. I don't know if packaging him with Loshe would make any difference in the offers but right now I just don't see a contender letting go of someone for a guy who strikes out as much as Dunn does. Maybe I am wrong and have totally gotten the situation all wrong and other teams see Dunn as an All-Star caliber player. Maybe we can get a #2 starter out of him. I hope so, but as well as this season has turned out, I can only hope for someone who can get an out from the bullpen and a shortstop for the future type player.

Bluegrass- I understand what you're saying and WK might only get a bullpen guy and a future shortstop in trade for Dunn from a team like San Diego. Milton Bradley had only played about 19 games with 19 hits for the year when the Padres acquired him. San Diego has given up some very nice talent in trades such as giving up Jason Bay et al for Brian Giles.
I think San Diego is too "gun-shy" to make a meaningful deal for Dunn.

I look for Dunn to go the American League (80% chance) or to the National League West (15%) or remain w/ the Reds or traded elsewhere(5%). Look at this interesting scenario where both of the following players have difficult contract language or little remaining time on said contracts: This is just wishful thinking-
The Chicago White Sox offer Mark Buerhle to the Reds straight up for Adam Dunn and both teams ask Selig for a 48-72 hour window to negotiate a long term contract and Krivsky hopefully would also ask for an additional "throw-in" minor leaguer (a list of 5 to 10 players) WK could choose 1 from that list of WS minor leaguers prior to the conclusion of the trade.

Your thoughts?

AmarilloRed
07-06-2007, 02:39 AM
That's just the thing, what do we expect to get for a guy like Dunn? The reason why the Padres picked up Milton Bradley and some other guy to platoon with him is so that they didn't have to pay the price that the Reds are going to be asking for him. I don't know if packaging him with Loshe would make any difference in the offers but right now I just don't see a contender letting go of someone for a guy who strikes out as much as Dunn does. Maybe I am wrong and have totally gotten the situation all wrong and other teams see Dunn as an All-Star caliber player. Maybe we can get a #2 starter out of him. I hope so, but as well as this season has turned out, I can only hope for someone who can get an out from the bullpen and a shortstop for the future type player.

I think you are expecting another Kearns and Lopez trade for worthless relievers. I am sure many of the teams seeking to trade for Adam Dunn will seek to get a bargain for Adam Dunn like Krivsky gave Bowden last year. However, Krivsky will not trade Adam unless he gets 2 or 3 type-A prospects. It is very difficult to know what any team will do as the trade deadline approaches, but unless Krivsky receives those class of prospects in a trade, I suspect he will hold onto Dunn and sign him to the 13-million option.

nate
07-06-2007, 08:14 AM
If he hits the ball to the right side there is usually a 3% chance the 3rd basemen makes an error. All I'm saying is make the defence do something, and if he makes contact there is a chance he hits a grounder to the right side and advances the runner. Will he do this everytime? No, but he would do it sometimes if he just made contact. If he only struck out 130 times a year he would be a much better offensive player. This is part of the reason he has 26 days or less in a Reds uniform.

Yes, I'd like to see him poke one through the hole left by the shift. Heck, even bunt down the third baseline until they stop doing it. However, a 3% chance of a boot versus:

* 8% chance of a home run
* 25.9% chance of a hit
* 34.9% chance of not making an out

There have been some very interesting discussion in ORG about how Dunn cutting down on a strikeouts might result in a dramatic loss of power.

Yeah, I want him to strikeout less too...but he's a big guy with a big swing and a big strikezone. He's not gonna be Ted Williams no matter how much we want him to be.

I don't think he'll be traded, actually.

nate
07-06-2007, 08:16 AM
I've always thought that the Reds really need 8 fast guys who can hit the ball softly. That way, if one of them happens to get on base with no one out, and we'll be a little generous and say that that will happen 33% of the time, then if they can steal a base, then if the next two guys can hit the ball softly on the ground to the right side, and WHAMMO!!! A RUN!

Just imagine. We could score like 2 or 3 runs every game and wind up with about 400 runs scored on the season. And we wouldn't have to watch any big lazy oafs who strike out too much and are too lethargic to work on their game.

Then we could hire Marty Brennaman as manager and Jeff Brantley as our pitching coach. We might even be able to talk the great talent and character evaluator (Alberto Callaspo is a great guy!) Thom Brennaman into being our GM.

Heh!

Bring back the wristbands, white shoes, polyester and artificial turf too!

bluegrassOH
07-06-2007, 01:45 PM
Bluegrass- I understand what you're saying and WK might only get a bullpen guy and a future shortstop in trade for Dunn from a team like San Diego. Milton Bradley had only played about 19 games with 19 hits for the year when the Padres acquired him. San Diego has given up some very nice talent in trades such as giving up Jason Bay et al for Brian Giles.
I think San Diego is too "gun-shy" to make a meaningful deal for Dunn.

I look for Dunn to go the American League (80% chance) or to the National League West (15%) or remain w/ the Reds or traded elsewhere(5%). Look at this interesting scenario where both of the following players have difficult contract language or little remaining time on said contracts: This is just wishful thinking-
The Chicago White Sox offer Mark Buerhle to the Reds straight up for Adam Dunn and both teams ask Selig for a 48-72 hour window to negotiate a long term contract and Krivsky hopefully would also ask for an additional "throw-in" minor leaguer (a list of 5 to 10 players) WK could choose 1 from that list of WS minor leaguers prior to the conclusion of the trade.

Your thoughts?

I think that would be an amazing deal. If the Reds could pick up a guy like Buerhle for Dunn, I would be estatic. That would mean that we would have a rotation of Harang, Buerhle, Arroyo, Bailey, Dumatrait or Belisle. That's a very solid rotation if the last three guys can step it up.
What I would also like to see is WK going out and picking up a solid leadoff hitter. I think that is one of our main problems. We have no team speed (besides Phillips) and no one to stick in the leadoff spot day in and day out. Freel obviously isn't the answer, so we need to get someone in there who not only can get on base, but can play everyday. I don't know if that means trading AGonzo or what but as I look into next year I see pretty much the same nucleus of position players being back except for him. I don't know where he and Hatteberg fit into the grand scheme of things.

TheWalls
07-06-2007, 02:13 PM
Bluegrass- I understand what you're saying and WK might only get a bullpen guy and a future shortstop in trade for Dunn from a team like San Diego. Milton Bradley had only played about 19 games with 19 hits for the year when the Padres acquired him. San Diego has given up some very nice talent in trades such as giving up Jason Bay et al for Brian Giles.
I think San Diego is too "gun-shy" to make a meaningful deal for Dunn.

I look for Dunn to go the American League (80% chance) or to the National League West (15%) or remain w/ the Reds or traded elsewhere(5%). Look at this interesting scenario where both of the following players have difficult contract language or little remaining time on said contracts: This is just wishful thinking-
The Chicago White Sox offer Mark Buerhle to the Reds straight up for Adam Dunn and both teams ask Selig for a 48-72 hour window to negotiate a long term contract and Krivsky hopefully would also ask for an additional "throw-in" minor leaguer (a list of 5 to 10 players) WK could choose 1 from that list of WS minor leaguers prior to the conclusion of the trade.

Your thoughts?

LOVE IT!!!! Accept the deal Kenny Williams has on the table now, plus the no-trade clause and you have a rotation that can compete for the next 4 years!

AdamDunn
07-06-2007, 03:42 PM
Here's what we need to do:
1) Trade Griffey. He's not going help us win a championship. Any team that wants him only needs to pay about half of his $8,446,647 annual salary, which should be easy to stomach (especially given his production this year).

2) KEEP DUNN! $13 million dollars is below market price for him next year. Trade him midseason next year so we can bring up Jay Bruce when he's ready. Dunn helps train with Bruce, so they can both get better together.

3) Get some young pitching. Our position players should be good for a couple of years. Hamilton will be great. Phillips is an above average 2B and can get better if he learns plate discipline. I think Votto will hit in the majors. I haven't given up on Encarnacion. Bruce will be good. Our bullpen and starting pitchers should be good.

durl
07-06-2007, 05:07 PM
Here's what we need to do:
1) Trade Griffey. He's not going help us win a championship. Any team that wants him only needs to pay about half of his $8,446,647 annual salary, which should be easy to stomach (especially given his production this year).

2) KEEP DUNN! $13 million dollars is below market price for him next year. Trade him midseason next year so we can bring up Jay Bruce when he's ready. Dunn helps train with Bruce, so they can both get better together.

3) Get some young pitching. Our position players should be good for a couple of years. Hamilton will be great. Phillips is an above average 2B and can get better if he learns plate discipline. I think Votto will hit in the majors. I haven't given up on Encarnacion. Bruce will be good. Our bullpen and starting pitchers should be good.

I can't really go with you on these. I'd be open to having my mind changed but here are my thoughts:

1 - Griffey is owed $57.5 million at 4% interest in deferred salary between 2009-2024 so trading him would mean that the other team would have to pick up all (virtually impossible) or part (still difficult) of that deferred money. I believe we keep Jr. simply because his production is strong and he puts fans in the stands.

2 - I'm OK with keeping Dunn but I'd be fine with trading him IF the Reds could get players that could help right away in return. He's expensive, plays mediocre defense and he strikes out a lot. Even so, he produces for the Reds which makes it difficult to let him go. If Cincy could replace a portion of his power yet improve the defense in the outfield, it might make sense to trade him. I believe Dunn is better trade bait because he's younger than Griffey.

3 - I think we have some pretty young arms in the bullpen right now. Granted, most are around 26-27 which might not be considered "young" in baseball terms. Every team is looking for good young pitching to bring along and the Reds are no different. The Reds need help right now in the bullpen so I'd vote for more effective relievers regardless of their age. This teams most glaring weakness it's it's bullpen and it needs the most attention right now.

redsfanmia
07-06-2007, 06:53 PM
I've always thought that the Reds really need 8 fast guys who can hit the ball softly. That way, if one of them happens to get on base with no one out, and we'll be a little generous and say that that will happen 33% of the time, then if they can steal a base, then if the next two guys can hit the ball softly on the ground to the right side, and WHAMMO!!! A RUN!

Just imagine. We could score like 2 or 3 runs every game and wind up with about 400 runs scored on the season. And we wouldn't have to watch any big lazy oafs who strike out too much and are too lethargic to work on their game.
Did you see the mid eighties Cardinals teams? They had a bunch of fast guys who could play defense and didnt hit for power and they were pretty successful. There is more than one way to skin a cat and lets face it the way the Reds have been doing it hasnt been working so maybe 8 fast guys with no pop is the way to go.:thumbup:

gilpdawg
07-06-2007, 07:01 PM
Dear God, are you serious?? :bang:

You guys are looking at things from a micro perspective. In specific situations, contact might be better than a strikeout. But, it might also be worse (double play). Many times it doesn't even matter, as is the case in a grounder to the left side or an infield pop-up or foul pop-up.

What it comes down to, on the macro level, is that strikeouts have no correlation to production. You don't need to strike out less to produce big time numbers, and you aren't necessarily more likely to succeed in scoring runs when you don't strikeout. For example, the Marlins, Phillies, and Reds are all in the top five in the NL in strikeouts. All 3 of them are also in the top 5 in runs scored this season. Conversely, the Cardinals and Giants have the fewest and 3rd fewest strikeouts. But they are last and 2nd last in runs scored in the NL this year, respectively.

As for individuals, look no further than Ryan Howard. Last year he was 2nd in strikeouts to Adam Dunn, yet I think he ended up having an alright season.

Difference is, Philly fans appreciate Ryan Howard. SOME of you don't deserve to have a player of his magnitude on your team if you don't. I am gonna act a fool up in here when 2 years from now, all you guys are saying "wish we had Dunn back."

SMcGavin
07-06-2007, 07:36 PM
I've always thought that the Reds really need 8 fast guys who can hit the ball softly. That way, if one of them happens to get on base with no one out, and we'll be a little generous and say that that will happen 33% of the time, then if they can steal a base, then if the next two guys can hit the ball softly on the ground to the right side, and WHAMMO!!! A RUN!

Just imagine. We could score like 2 or 3 runs every game and wind up with about 400 runs scored on the season. And we wouldn't have to watch any big lazy oafs who strike out too much and are too lethargic to work on their game.

Then we could hire Marty Brennaman as manager and Jeff Brantley as our pitching coach. We might even be able to talk the great talent and character evaluator (Alberto Callaspo is a great guy!) Thom Brennaman into being our GM.


Haha, fantastic post.

As for trading Dunn - I'm not opposed to it if the return is fair, but I'm certainly not looking to unload him because he strikes out too much.

AmarilloRed
07-07-2007, 03:22 AM
I really don't think there will be a fire sale- Krivsky may trade unnecessary pieces like Hatteberg and some others; but I don't see a firesale happening

reds44
07-07-2007, 03:25 AM
I've always thought that the Reds really need 8 fast guys who can hit the ball softly. That way, if one of them happens to get on base with no one out, and we'll be a little generous and say that that will happen 33% of the time, then if they can steal a base, then if the next two guys can hit the ball softly on the ground to the right side, and WHAMMO!!! A RUN!

Just imagine. We could score like 2 or 3 runs every game and wind up with about 400 runs scored on the season. And we wouldn't have to watch any big lazy oafs who strike out too much and are too lethargic to work on their game.

Then we could hire Marty Brennaman as manager and Jeff Brantley as our pitching coach. We might even be able to talk the great talent and character evaluator (Alberto Callaspo is a great guy!) Thom Brennaman into being our GM.
:laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh:

Juan Pierre will be the cleanup hitter!

DannyB
07-08-2007, 12:27 PM
I really don't think there will be a fire sale- Krivsky may trade unnecessary pieces like Hatteberg and some others; but I don't see a firesale happening

I'm with ya there red.
Trades to make the team better are one thing,fire sales are another.

bounty37h
07-09-2007, 11:51 AM
:eek: Wow, tough crowd. I suppose if he does start hitting 50 HRs and driving in 120, then we, along with Reds management, should expect him to start hitting 60 HRs and driving in 150? Easier said than done...

I dont think 50 and 120 is a stetch to expect from Dunn, after all, he can do it for one thing, adn second, its his only talent, better be able to do that!!!!

BucSappy
07-11-2007, 08:06 PM
I disagree with teh idea of trading Lohse. We need to keep the starting rotation of Harang-Arroyo-Lohse-and Bailey together for another 2 years and we will see them become one of the best young rotations in the Bigs much like they have in San Diego or Detroit. Those teams stuck with their young guns through hard time and didn't give up on them and now they are playoff contenders.

Getting rid of Adam Dunn is a must. He hurts this team more than he helps it. I think we would get most value out of the LAA Angles because of their lack of power in their lineup. He would be pretty good for them as a DH. If we can't get a good prospect out of the deal then lets just take their first round draft pick for next season and continue to build talent in our farm system.

Also, we need to get rid of Hatteberg very very soon while his stock is still up, what are we waiting for? We could get a talented SS prospect out of the deal, and that is the biggest hole imo on our roster.

Lets not get rid of Griffey unless we are getting a lot in return for him. He sells tickets and we can part with both our corner outfielders.

I would love an outfield of Freel-Hamilton-Hopper and then you put Votto at 1B, but this team would lose a ton of power with Griffey out of the lineup so I am not sure it would be worth it to trade him unless we get more out of the deal than the other team. We have a lot of leverage with Griffey in a trade. Much more than Dunn.

Chi-Town Red
07-11-2007, 09:07 PM
no way we keep Loshe...he is a jekly and hyde pitcher, you dont if he will pitch a no hitter or give up 7 runs in the first...we wont resign him IMO...Hopper is not an everyday outfielder. He is a good spot starter, but i would rather have Dunn out there every day

AmarilloRed
07-11-2007, 11:03 PM
We will be trading some players. We will definitely trade Conine or Hatteberg and make room for Votto. It is also a good possibility Lohse will be traded,and we will get the best prospect we can. We will keep Griffey and wait for Bruce to take over in due course. As for Adam Dunn, it will be very difficult to trade him after the end of July, so the Reds are under a lot of pressure to trade him. Krivsky is not getting very equitable offers right now, but that may change the closer we get to the deadline.I don't see us trading anyone else, unless we totally tank the rest of the month.

nate
07-12-2007, 08:19 AM
no way we keep Loshe...he is a jekly and hyde pitcher, you dont if he will pitch a no hitter or give up 7 runs in the first...we wont resign him IMO...Hopper is not an everyday outfielder. He is a good spot starter, but i would rather have Dunn out there every day

I dunno. If you look at his stats and look at the FA list for next year, who will you get that does the same thing for less?

Vast game to game performances aside, Lohse is a league average pitcher. For us, league average is an improvement.

I say, keep him unless you get something really good.

CySeymour
07-12-2007, 11:20 AM
I think we also have to remember what are the chances that he would even re-sign with the Reds. Considering some of the aweful pitchers that got incredible contracts last offseason, I think it would be reasonable to expect Lohse to get a 3 year deal from someone.

AmarilloRed
07-12-2007, 01:58 PM
I think we also have to remember what are the chances that he would even re-sign with the Reds. Considering some of the aweful pitchers that got incredible contracts last offseason, I think it would be reasonable to expect Lohse to get a 3 year deal from someone.

Lohse has been quoted as saying he is open to an extension from the Reds . I suppose it all depends on the terms he is seeking. He is a Boras agent, but he still needs to perform on the field to expect him to get a decent offer.