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View Full Version : Will Edwin Encarcion be the long-term solution offensively?



AmarilloRed
07-08-2007, 02:08 AM
I had really high hopes for Edwin Encarcion last year. I believed he would be a stellar third baseman who would be really productive offensively. I believed he would hit .300 with 30 hr, 100 rbi potential in the future. He seems to have had the hardest year of anyone, and we might have to scale down our hopes for Edwin. We have no one presently to replace Edwin now or in the near future, but we might need to look at trading or drafting a class-a third base prospect in the years to come, as third base is a power-hitting position.

mole44
07-08-2007, 02:27 AM
First off, why the hell do certain positions have to be power hitting positions? Thats stupid to say one position HAS to hit x amount of home runs while this position can hit .200 as long as he is slick fielding. I'd take Arod at short and and EE at 3B over Arod at third and Gonzalez at Short 97 days a week. And another thing, if Castro comes in as a late inning defensive replacement one more time over EE I've had it. What more does EE have to prove that he has sick D at third? The only problem he has/had were the throws, which he has cut back on a lot this season.

I think the thing with EE is that slump he went through at the beginning of the season. He has worked so hard to get back to his normal approach thats hes just trying to hit the ball hard again which has produced a lot more hits, just not deep flys. EE is fine, you dont trade him unless you are upgrading him.

BearcatShane
07-08-2007, 02:32 AM
I think Edwin could be the Reds third basemen for the next 10 years. After his slow start he's really been hitting over the last 45 games or so. I really think he will be a good middle of the order hitter for years to come.

uoduck1017
07-08-2007, 02:41 AM
I really hope so because this kid has a lot of talent. I think coaches and fans get frustrated because he displays his amazing abilities for a period of time, then he will go into a slump. The key for him is staying healthy and getting into a good rythm.

Shaggy Sanchez
07-08-2007, 02:55 AM
He is 24 yrs old and playing in his 2nd full season, I think we should give him some more time. Players are notorious for having sophmore slumps and I don't think this is anything more than that. There is no one to replace him and the Reds aren't going to win anything anytime soon so they might as well let him play through it and see what happens. I for one think he will be fine and am ok with him being the Reds 3rd baseman for many years.

BearcatShane
07-08-2007, 03:13 AM
He is 24 yrs old and playing in his 2nd full season, I think we should give him some more time. Players are notorious for having sophmore slumps and I don't think this is anything more than that. There is no one to replace him and the Reds aren't going to win anything anytime soon so they might as well let him play through it and see what happens. I for one think he will be fine and am ok with him being the Reds 3rd baseman for many years.


He's not really having that big of a sophmore slump either. He's hiting over .270 with a decent RBI total and still hitting pretty well with runners in scoring position. Yea, the power numbers are a litle down but I think he'll get that back in the second half.

Orenda
07-08-2007, 09:16 AM
He could easily finish the year with 15-20 homers and 70 rbi's with a strong second half, and his defense has been better. For whatever reason i get the feeling EE is under-valued. I can understand the poor defense argument, but with Felipe gone the left side of the infield is stronger. Anybody else wonder during his slump if he had played too much baseball? I don't fault the guy for being involved in the winter leagues but was just curious if it might have affected him. MLB 06 season, followed by Winter Ball were his team went to playoffs and finals (not 100% sure about his teams results) then spring training and MLB 07 season, sounds like an easy way to lose focus to me.

Chi-Town Red
07-08-2007, 10:11 AM
He has flashes of brilliants. More stable and steady play and he will be here for a long time.It's really up to him his ceiling is unlimited

6-4-3
07-08-2007, 10:42 AM
I posted this in another thread, but it goes perfect with this one, and sums up my feelings on EE.

Edwin is 24 years old. In '06 at age 23 he hit .276 in 117 G, 15 HR, 72 RBI's. In '07 at age 24 he has hit .273 in 71 G, 6 HR, 36 RBI's.
His D has been improving steadily over the last three years. He's young + cheap, and WILL BE a plus major league 3B for years to come. He's one of the spots the Reds BUILD AROUND.

Driver62
07-08-2007, 11:17 AM
I would hope that EE stays around for many years to come. His defense has improved (throwing) and he does have some pop in his bat. He's no 40 HR a year guy but there's no reason he can't hit twenty.
I agree there is no reason that a third baseman needs to be a big power hitter. Not everyone is a Mike Schmidt. If you remember, Pete Rose played quite a few games at 3B and he sure wasn't a power hitter.

Orenda
07-08-2007, 11:37 AM
I agree there is no reason that a third baseman needs to be a big power hitter.

Especially on a team that has plenty of pop, Phillips, Hamilton, Griffey, Dunn, a little Gonzo, and when Ross hits the ball. You also have Votto on the horizon with good power. Im really interested how the reds are going to start piecing this thing together in the second half, for next year and beyond.

CWRed
07-08-2007, 01:34 PM
And his OBP is .356. I'd like to see him hit 2nd sometimes.

Of course, I'd like to see Juan Castro harvest turnips rather than play for the Reds. But that's just me.

11larkin11
07-08-2007, 01:59 PM
I really dont see how this is a question. Edwin has been one of our best hitters since his return from Louisville. He started off bad. Oh well. His defense has improved greatly, and actually has a better FPCT than Castro at third base, and I'm sure his range is much greater too because he makes spectacular plays. Not to mention he has a pretty good OBP, one of, if not the best AVG w/ RISP, and Catchers Int.;)

mole44
07-08-2007, 02:00 PM
And his OBP is .356. I'd like to see him hit 2nd sometimes.

Of course, I'd like to see Juan Castro harvest turnips rather than play for the Reds. But that's just me.

If the Nazi's hadn't taken over redszone, I'd rep you for that one my friend :beerme:

nate
07-08-2007, 02:23 PM
If the Nazi's hadn't taken over redszone, I'd rep you for that one my friend :beerme:

:rolleyes:

Betterread
07-08-2007, 03:12 PM
Good question. I am still wondering about the answer. He has the potential to be an above average offensive player and he has displayed (mostly in 2006, but he has hit well of late) that he can reach that potential. Defensively, he has the physical skills to be a good ML 3B, but he has not shown that promise consistently enough in his performance. He's still unreliable, to my perception.
I will give him all of this year, and at leat half of next year to show progress toward his potential before I will decide on him. If that sounds like a criticism, it really isn't. For example, I won't begin to consider Joey Votto a long-term solution until he plays 100+ games in the majors, no matter what his minor league performance indicates about his potential.

AmarilloRed
07-08-2007, 03:57 PM
It is a question because Iwas expecting much more from him this year. I will admit he has hit better since coming back from Louisville, but he has not shown a lot of power since his return. It may not be fair, but first and third baseman are expected to hit for power.There are not many middle infielders who have much pop in their bat. I know we don't have much in the way of third baseman in our minor league system, so we have to depend on Edwin in the near future.I would hope he can hit more home runs than 20, and much more than 70 rbis. Brandon Phillips has shown he can do it, so that will take some pressure off Edwin. I would like him to be on this team for a long time, but if he doesn't really improve his power numbers in the second half I hope Krivsky will address this in the offseason. I may be the lone voice crying in the wilderness, but Edwin needs to do a ot more offensively.

jimbo
07-08-2007, 04:11 PM
It may not be fair, but first and third baseman are expected to hit for power.There are not many middle infielders who have much pop in their bat.

Why? I also have never understood why this thinking is so widespread amongst baseball. Who cares where your power comes from? Gonzo and Phillips have 30 home runs combined between the two of them and that's plenty of power to make up for what's not coming from EE at the present time. Not to mention the home runs coming from the outfielders.

EE is more than capable of hitting 20-25 home runs a year and I suspect he will start hitting that many soon enough. Even with his past problems at 3B, he is also still an above average third baseman. And he is currently cheap and young, so I wouldn't be too quick to deal him unless something comes along I just can't pass up.

AmarilloRed
07-08-2007, 04:19 PM
I would accept 20-25 home runs a year if he also shows he can drive 90-100 runs in instead of 70.He would have to have a very good second half to go from 6 hrs to 20-25.

jimbo
07-08-2007, 04:25 PM
I would accept 20-25 home runs a year if he also shows he can drive 90-100 runs in instead of 70.He would have to have a very good second half to go from 6 hrs to 20-25.

I'm just failing to understand the reasoning behind this. This just seems like another case of fans "expecting" certain numbers from a player instead of being accepting of what they are (see Adam Dunn).

If EE only hits 20 home runs a season and knocks in 70 RBIs, I'm happy with that considering what the Reds are now paying him and the kind of production the rest of the lineup is providing.

AmarilloRed
07-08-2007, 04:44 PM
I'm just failing to understand the reasoning behind this. This just seems like another case of fans "expecting" certain numbers from a player instead of being accepting of what they are (see Adam Dunn).

If EE only hits 20 home runs a season and knocks in 70 RBIs, I'm happy with that considering what the Reds are now paying him and the kind of production the rest of the lineup is providing.

I will not, and neither should Edwin. He has 6hrs and 36 rbis right now, and it looks like he would be lucky right now to get to 10 hrs and 55 rbis. That is a joke for a third baseman, and he is capable of so much more. I watched him last year, and he looked like 30 hrs and 90 rbis would be the floor for him. He has regressed as a power hitter, and he will need a stellar second half to redeem himself. He has not lived up to his potential, and he will need to show over the next 2 years he is capable of being our starting third baseman instead of a reserve third baseman. You mentioned Adam Dunn, and he never achieved the potential he showed in the minors up to now in the major leagues.

jimbo
07-08-2007, 04:49 PM
That is a joke for a third baseman, and he is capable of so much more.

Whatever. You're certainly entitled to your opinion and I'll just leave it at that.

AmarilloRed
07-09-2007, 01:30 AM
Whatever. You're certainly entitled to your opinion and I'll just leave it at that.

We all are. I have my expectations of Edwin, as we all have, and only time will tell to see whether my expectations or yours are more real. I would like to believe he could hit.300, with 30 hrs and 90-100 rbis, but I could be wrong. I will watch his progress the rest of the season and update this thread as it seems appropriate.

Orenda
07-09-2007, 10:20 AM
. It may not be fair, but first and third baseman are expected to hit for power.

This isn't baseball of old. Yes 3b and 1b are usually power guys but how many ozzie smith's are around today? So I assume you were never a Sean Casey supporter or much of a Hatteberg fan? In my opinion the reds have enough pop to fit EE in as an effective piece of their lineup now and let him continue to develop in the future. Baseball is a game that requires patience sometimes. Id like to see him play everyday at least till the end of next season. Who knows, you may be right. But hopefully you'll have forgetten by then

AmarilloRed
07-09-2007, 05:57 PM
This isn't baseball of old. Yes 3b and 1b are usually power guys but how many ozzie smith's are around today? So I assume you were never a Sean Casey supporter or much of a Hatteberg fan? In my opinion the reds have enough pop to fit EE in as an effective piece of their lineup now and let him continue to develop in the future. Baseball is a game that requires patience sometimes. Id like to see him play everyday at least till the end of next season. Who knows, you may be right. But hopefully you'll have forgetten by then

I was a supporter of Casey, up to a point. He had gap power, hit for a very high batting average, and was good with runners in scoring position.This helped balance out his lack of home run power. Hatteberg is a servicable reserve, but not good enough to be a starting first baseman. As for Edwin, I will simply watch his progress the rest of this year, and periodically post on his development.

JLB5
07-09-2007, 06:09 PM
I was a supporter of Casey, up to a point. He had gap power, hit for a very high batting average, and was good with runners in scoring position.This helped balance out his lack of home run power. Hatteberg is a servicable reserve, but not good enough to be a starting first baseman. As for Edwin, I will simply watch his progress the rest of this year, and periodically post on his development.

I loved Casey too, but his contract was terrible. The Reds paid him big time for one season. I think injuries took away a lot of his power also. Edwin looks just fine to me. He is still quite young, but continues to drive in runs as a solid rate. I think as long as he keeps hitting solid line drives, the power numbers will come. GABP is far to friendly of a homer park for him not to hit 25+ per year.

757690
07-09-2007, 06:18 PM
He reminds of Tony Perez when he first came up. Very similar hitter, very aggressive, but still a good eye, has some HR and 2B power. Here are Tony's # in his first two seasons with the Reds
G B R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K AVG OB SLG
104 281 40 73 14 4 12 47 21 67 .260 .315 .466
99 257 25 68 10 4 4 39 14 44 .265 .304 .381

Looks similar to EE's.

Not saying he will be as great as Perez, but I wouldn't give up on him just yet. And remember Tony started out as a 3B and then moved to first to replace Lee May in 72.

James B.
07-09-2007, 07:35 PM
What we need to remember is that most players Edwin's age are still in the minors. He is still developing his game at the major league level. We won't really know how good he can be for probably 3 or 4 more years. As long as he continues to get better he is still our best option right now at third.

improbus
07-09-2007, 07:46 PM
Aside from the injury problems, what is the major difference between Edwin and Brandon Larson? Similar, underwhelming ballplayers. I see Edwin sticking around for a few years until the Reds have another "hot hitting" 3rd base prospect that the fans and team get all excited about. Somehow, I have a feeling Edwin will be one of those guys you look that you look back at and think, "Yeah, I remember that guy, he was supposed to be great, whatever happened to him?" See: Willie Green, Kurt Stillwell, Brandon Claussen, Wily Mo, Pokey, Gooky Dawkins, Eddie Milner, even Reggie Sanders to a certain degree. I think the Reds may lead the league in guys who were going to be All-Stars. BTW, If you can think of any more let me know, its kind of a fun/depressing list to compile.

jimbo
07-09-2007, 08:04 PM
Aside from the injury problems, what is the major difference between Edwin and Brandon Larson?

I think comparing Larson to EE is grossly unfair to EE. Larson's career major league numbers are pretty ugly.

nate
07-09-2007, 08:16 PM
Aside from the injury problems, what is the major difference between Edwin and Brandon Larson? Similar, underwhelming ballplayers. I see Edwin sticking around for a few years until the Reds have another "hot hitting" 3rd base prospect that the fans and team get all excited about. Somehow, I have a feeling Edwin will be one of those guys you look that you look back at and think, "Yeah, I remember that guy, he was supposed to be great, whatever happened to him?" See: Willie Green, Kurt Stillwell, Brandon Claussen, Wily Mo, Pokey, Gooky Dawkins, Eddie Milner, even Reggie Sanders to a certain degree. I think the Reds may lead the league in guys who were going to be All-Stars. BTW, If you can think of any more let me know, its kind of a fun/depressing list to compile.

I dunno. Brandon Larson was 25 when he first came up to the Reds. Edwin is 24 right now in his third season. Edwin's career OPS+ is 97 (and climbing), Brandon Larson's, a cool 50. Edwin played more games LAST YEAR (117) than Larson did in his entire Reds career (109).

Willie Greene might be closer as his career OPS+ was 95. Willie didn't hit for as high an average but he could take a walk (.234 Avg. / .326 OBP). Edwin currently outslugs Willie .440 to .423.

I take your point about him being in that "almost" class of Reds guys but my feeling is that Edwin is going to be above average.

improbus
07-09-2007, 08:41 PM
I can't believe I'm about to defend Brandon Larson, but here goes. Larson, pre-injury, was almost the exact same player as Edwin, and remember, he went to college, so he did move quickly through the minors. They have the same body type, same general offensive capabilities, and the same hype. Larson's problem was injuries and inability to perform. Edwin seems to have problems focusing and adjusting. I'm not saying he can't be a productive 3rd baseman for years, but he has to improve his consistency on defense, and the Reds have to be willing to stick with him. If you can live with .270, 18, 75, and 20+ errors, then you'll be alright. But, with EE and Dunn down the left field line, I cringe whenever a right handed pull hitter comes to the plate.

PS, I think I can add Larson, Ryan Wagner, Austin Kearns, and Felipe to the list of "Reds who were going to be All-Stars." And, I know, Lopez made an All-Star game, but someone off that '05 team had to.

gedred69
07-09-2007, 10:58 PM
I felt this was the year that EE would either blossom into a star, or prove to be counterfeit. The more I watch him, the more I'm reminded of Danny Driessen. All the talent in the world, but either not very bright or unable to keep his head in the game.

AmarilloRed
07-09-2007, 11:11 PM
I felt this was the year that EE would either blossom into a star, or prove to be counterfeit. The more I watch him, the more I'm reminded of Danny Driessen. All the talent in the world, but either not very bright or unable to keep his head in the game.

Exactly. Edwin has all the potential in the world, but he seems to be underperforming this year. He clearly has not been a star this year, and needs to do a lot of improvement in his game. I still have faith he will do it , though.

11larkin11
07-10-2007, 03:50 AM
....He's hitting over .300 since being promoted and getting his head back on straight, and hes our best hitter with RISP over the last two years, which this team desperately needs, and for every bad throw he makes (not as many after his recall), he makes 3 times as many Web Gems that Rich Aurilia, Ryan Freel, or Brandon Larson could make at the Hot Corner, the hardest defensive position in baseball, IMO.

nate
07-10-2007, 08:26 AM
Edwin before and after his demotion.

BEFORE:




Edwin Encarnacion batting from career game #187 (Apr 2, 2007) to game #217 (May 9, 2007)

G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF GDP SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS
+---+---+---+---+---+--+--+--+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+-----+-----+-----+-----+
31 115 101 11 22 2 1 1 14 9 0 19 3 0 0 0 2 0 .218 .301 .287 .588



AFTER:




Edwin Encarnacion batting from career game #218 (May 22, 2007) to game #258 (Jul 8, 2007)

G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF GDP SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS
+---+---+---+---+---+--+--+--+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+-----+-----+-----+-----+
41 178 155 21 47 9 0 5 22 17 1 31 4 0 0 3 2 0 .303 .386 .458 .844



Not only has he been much better since his demotion, I take it as a sign of maturity that he has really improved his game during both halves of the inning since then. I'd like to see the power number come up but I think they will.

Here's the best part:




Salary
$332,500

UC_Ken
07-10-2007, 10:35 AM
So he's 24 years old and has OPS'ed .850 since coming up after his horrible start. What exactly is the problem? Plus he's been terrific defensively since coming back.

AmarilloRed
07-10-2007, 03:16 PM
His problem is that he has not shown the power I expected this year. 6 hrs and 36 rbis is not very good for a third baseman. However, it seems he has been doing better with his power since he returned from Louisville. I expected a .300 batting average from him, and it seems he has done that from his return to Louisville. He has been doing what you showed for a month and a half. Let's see if he will be consistant with it, or he returns to his performance earlier in the year.

BucSappy
07-11-2007, 09:14 PM
The more ABs EE gets the better he is going to be for us.

You have to love an INF with Valentin (I like him over Ross for his offensive production), Phillips, Votto, and whoever we plug in at SS because Gonzo is a joke.

TC81190
07-11-2007, 10:10 PM
Edwin before and after his demotion.

BEFORE:




Edwin Encarnacion batting from career game #187 (Apr 2, 2007) to game #217 (May 9, 2007)

G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF GDP SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS
+---+---+---+---+---+--+--+--+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+-----+-----+-----+-----+
31 115 101 11 22 2 1 1 14 9 0 19 3 0 0 0 2 0 .218 .301 .287 .588



AFTER:




Edwin Encarnacion batting from career game #218 (May 22, 2007) to game #258 (Jul 8, 2007)

G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF GDP SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS
+---+---+---+---+---+--+--+--+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+-----+-----+-----+-----+
41 178 155 21 47 9 0 5 22 17 1 31 4 0 0 3 2 0 .303 .386 .458 .844



Not only has he been much better since his demotion, I take it as a sign of maturity that he has really improved his game during both halves of the inning since then. I'd like to see the power number come up but I think they will.

Here's the best part:




Salary
$332,500



I like these numbers.

And these:
Similar Batters though Age 23
1.Jim Presley (977)
2.Jim Thome (975)
3.Chipper Jones (974)
4.Bill Melton (971)
5.Willie Jones (956)
6.Chris Brown (954)
7.Danny Tartabull (953)
8.Bobby Murcer (952)
9.Fernando Tatis (949)
10.Howard Johnson (948)

reds44
07-11-2007, 10:19 PM
Edwin before and after his demotion.

BEFORE:




Edwin Encarnacion batting from career game #187 (Apr 2, 2007) to game #217 (May 9, 2007)

G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF GDP SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS
+---+---+---+---+---+--+--+--+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+-----+-----+-----+-----+
31 115 101 11 22 2 1 1 14 9 0 19 3 0 0 0 2 0 .218 .301 .287 .588



AFTER:




Edwin Encarnacion batting from career game #218 (May 22, 2007) to game #258 (Jul 8, 2007)

G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF GDP SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS
+---+---+---+---+---+--+--+--+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+-----+-----+-----+-----+
41 178 155 21 47 9 0 5 22 17 1 31 4 0 0 3 2 0 .303 .386 .458 .844



Not only has he been much better since his demotion, I take it as a sign of maturity that he has really improved his game during both halves of the inning since then. I'd like to see the power number come up but I think they will.

Here's the best part:




Salary
$332,500



Fantastic post.

AmarilloRed
07-11-2007, 11:24 PM
Let's not forget the small sample size. He has done this for 1 1/2 months. He has definitely improved since his return, but I want to see him do it the rest of the year.

jimbo
07-12-2007, 02:34 AM
Let's not forget the small sample size. He has done this for 1 1/2 months. He has definitely improved since his return, but I want to see him do it the rest of the year.

You're judging him by even a smaller sample size????

AmarilloRed
07-12-2007, 02:46 AM
No, I'm also judging him by his production last year. He really had a good year last year; both in power and hitting. He has looked totally lost at the beginning of the year, and has only recently begun to show some power. He has done well since he returned from Louisville, but I am still concerned about his power numbers. Like I have said before, 6 hrs and 36 rbis in half a season is terrible for a third baseman in half a season. He may be the Reds third baseman of the future; I just want to make sure he can show both power and be a good hitter consistantly.

NeilHamburger
07-12-2007, 06:51 AM
Bottom line to me is I'll give him the rest of this season and next, and then evaluate him. But, if he is only going to put up a line of .270 15 75, then I begin looking elsewhere. In this park, I want a power bat at that position.

Orenda
07-12-2007, 09:52 AM
Bottom line to me is I'll give him the rest of this season and next, and then evaluate him. But, if he is only going to put up a line of .270 15 75, then I begin looking elsewhere. In this park, I want a power bat at that position.

Thats a fair enough opinion, but I'd take a 3rd baseman with those numbers and good offensive players around him for his price tag. If it meant I could afford better pitching.