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Benihana
07-09-2007, 01:36 PM
Anyone know when it's supposed to come out?

Also, if you had to compile your own Top 30 prospect list for all of baseball, what would it look like? Assume anyone who has played a game in the majors is ineligible (ie Garza, LaRoche, Wood, etc.)

Mine would look something roughly like this...

1. Justin Upton OF ARI
2. Jay Bruce OF CIN
3. Clay Buchholz RHP BOS
4. Evan Longoria 3B TB
5. Adam Jones OF SEA
6. Wladimir Balentien OF SEA
7. Jeff Niemann RHP TB
8. Joba Chamberlain RHP NYY
9. Cameron Maybin OF DET
10. Max Scherzer RHP ARI
11. Andrew McCutcheon OF PIT
12. Colby Rasmus OF STL
13. Ian Stewart 3B COL
14. Joey Votto 1B CIN
15. Clayton Kershaw LHP LAD
16. Carlos Carrasco RHP PHI
17. Adam Miller RHP CLE
18. Chuck Lofgren LHP CLE
19. Luke Hocheavar RHP KC
20. Nick Adenhart RHP LAA
21. David Price LHP TB (once he signs)
22. Manny Parra LHP MIL
23. Matt Wieters C BAL (once he signs)
24. Gorkys Hernandez OF DET
25. Franklin Morales RHP COL
26. Henry Sosa RHP SF
27. Carlos Gonzalez OF ARI
28. Jose Tabata OF NYY
29. Johnny Cueto RHP CIN
30. Ian Kennedy RHP NYY


Something interesting to note- Only four teams (ARI, TB, NYY and the Reds) have three or more players in the Top 30. How do your lists stack up?

dougdirt
07-09-2007, 01:54 PM
I will give my top 5. I am stopping there because really, there are a lot of guys that are next in line that I just cant put as top 10 prospects in baseball.

1. Jay Bruce
2. Justin Upton







Very large gap.





3. Evan Longoria
4. Wlad Balentien
5. Adam Jones

edabbs44
07-09-2007, 04:28 PM
2 Mariners OFs in AAA in the top 5-10 prospects...my Lord. No wonder why there is so much talk of Ichiro leaving.

reds44
07-09-2007, 05:49 PM
And the REAL list:
5. Homer Bailey
6. Jay Bruce
28. Johnny Cueto
40. Joey Votto

reds44
07-09-2007, 05:56 PM
NOTE - Each player CANNOT have pitched more than 50 innings, or had more than 130 ABs in the Majors in a single season

Players in our preseason rankings who have reached these plateaus in the major leagues this season are not eligible for this ranking

#1 Justin Upton · Arizona Diamondbacks · Pre: 12
Mobile (AA) 52G .302, 12(2B), 4(3B), 8HR, 35RBI, 20BB, 41K, 7SB
Visalia (High-A) 32G .341, 6(2B), 2(3B), 5HR, 17RBI, 19BB, 28K, 9SB

#2 Philip Hughes · New York Yankees · Pre: 4
New York Yankees (MLB) 1-1, 3.38ERA, 10.2IP, 4BB, 11K, .189BAA
Scranton (AAA) 2-1, 3.94ERA, 16IP, 4BB, 17K, .200BAA

#3 Clay Buchholz · Boston Red Sox · Pre: 32
Portland (AA) 7-2, 1.77ERA, 86.2IP, 22BB, 116K, .180BAA

#4 Evan Longoria · Tampa Bay Devil Rays · Pre: 19
Montgomery (AA) 87G .301, 16(2B), 18HR, 61RBI, 43BB, 63K, 3SB

#5 Homer Bailey · Cincinnati Reds · Pre: 6
Cincinnati (MLB) 2-2, 6.99ERA, 28.1IP, 21BB, 15K, .282BAA
Louisville (AAA) 6-1, 2.31ERA, 58.1IP, 24BB, 51K, .191BAA

#6 Jay Bruce · Cincinnati Reds · Pre: 9
Chattanooga (AA) 15G .328, 7(2B), 1(3B), 4HR, 15RBI, 8BB, 18K, 2SB
Sarasota (High-A) 67G .325, 27(2B), 5(3B), 11HR, 49RBI, 24BB, 67K, 4SB

#7 Andrew Miller · Detroit Tigers · Pre: 18
Detroit (MLB) 4-2, 3.31ERA, 35.1IP, 17BB, 25K, .218BAA
Erie (AA) 2-0, 0.59ERA, 30.2IP, 5BB, 24K, .208BAA
(High-A) 1-4, 3.48ERA, 41.1IP, 15BB, 28K, .264BAA

#8 Cameron Maybin · Detroit Tigers · Pre: 10
Lakeland (High-A) 74G .303, 11(2B), 4(3B), 8HR, 38RBI, 41BB, 76K, 23SB

#9 Yovani Gallardo · Milwaukee Brewers · Pre: 17
Milwaukee (MLB) 1-1, 3.38ERA, 24IP, 9BB, 23K, .222BAA
Nashville (AAA) 8-3, 2.90ERA, 77.2IP, 28BB, 110K, .189BAA

#10 Andrew McCutchen · Pittsburgh Pirates · Pre: 8
Altoona (AA) 84G .241, 15(2B), 3(3B), 5HR, 36RBI, 29BB, 59K, 11SB

#11 Jarrod Saltalamacchia · Atlanta Braves · Pre: 40
Atlanta (MLB) 38G .315, 6(2B), 4HR, 11RBI, 8BB, 23K
Mississippi (AA) 22G .309, 7(2B), 6HR, 13RBI, 13BB, 17K, 2SB

#12 Jacoby Ellsbury · Boston Red Sox · Pre: 27
Boston (MLB) 6G .375, 1(2B), 1RBI, 2BB, 1SB
Pawtucket (AAA) 52G .286, 9(2B), 4(3B), 1HR, 14RBI, 26BB, 23K, 23SB
Portland (AA) 17G .452, 10(2B), 2(3B), 13RBI, 6BB, 7K, 8SB

#13 Brandon Wood · Los Angeles Angels · Pre: 7
Los Angeles Angels (MLB) 3G .091, 5K
Salt Lake City (AAA) 77G .264, 18(2B), 1(3B), 15HR, 52RBI, 38BB, 77K, 8SB

#14 Billy Butler · Kansas City Royals · Pre: 26
Kansas City (MLB) 24G .284, 5(2B), 3HR, 14RBI, 1BB, 16K
Omaha (AAA) 57G .291, 10(2B), 1(3B), 13HR, 46RBI, 43BB, 32K, 1SB

#15 Colby Rasmus · St. Louis Cardinals · Pre: 33
Springfield (AA) 81G .258, 27(2B), 1(3B), 16HR, 52RBI, 39BB, 64K, 12SB

#16 Adam Jones · Seattle Mariners · Pre: 39
Tacoma (AAA) 80G .304, 20(2B), 5(3B), 19HR, 68RBI, 28BB, 86K, 5SB

#17 Clayton Kershaw · Los Angeles Dodgers · Pre: 59
Great Lakes (Low-A) 7-3, 2.12ERA, 76.1IP, 41BB, 103K, .187BAA

#18 Joba Chamberlain · New York Yankees · Pre: NR
Trenton (AA) 3-1, 2.60ERA, 27.2IP, 11BB, 48K, .202BAA
Tampa (High-A) 4-0, 2.03ERA, 40IP, 11BB, 51K, .181BAA

#19 Jacob McGee · Tampa Bay Devil Rays · Pre: 66
Vero Beach (High-A) 5-3, 2.86ERA, 88IP, 27BB, 108K, .205BAA

#20 Wade Davis · Tampa Bay Devil Rays · Pre: 69
Montgomery (AA) 3-0, 1.75ERA, 25.2IP, 4BB, 23K, .239BAA
Vero Beach (High-A) 3-0, 1.84ERA, 78.1IP, 21BB, 88K, .196BAA


#21 Jose Tabata · New York Yankees · Pre: 21
Tampa (High-A) 74G .313, 12(2B), 2(3B), 3HR, 40RBI, 26BB, 53K, 13SB

#22 Daric Barton · Oakland Athletics · Pre: 48
Sacramento (AAA) 85G .321, 28(2B), 3(3B), 6HR, 49RBI, 43BB, 38K, 2SB

#23 Reid Brignac · Tampa Bay Devil Rays · Pre: 16
Montgomery (AA) 84G .254, 17(2B), 4(3B), 10HR, 48RBI, 27BB, 51K, 10SB

#24 Adam Miller · Cleveland Indians · Pre: 31
Buffalo (AAA) 4-2, 3.51ERA, 51.1IP, 17BB, 48K, .240BAA

#25 Andy LaRoche · Los Angeles Dodgers · Pre: 41
Los Angeles Dodgers (MLB) 18G .211, 2(2B), 3RBI, 15BB, 5K, 1SB
Las Vegas (AAA) 43G .273, 10(2B), 1(3B), 5HR, 16RBI, 24BB, 19K, 2SB

#26 Chris Volstad · Florida Marlins · Pre: 55
Jupiter (High-A) 7-7, 4.16ERA, 106IP, 32BB, 80K, .296BAA

#27 Chuck Lofgren · Cleveland Indians · Pre: 62
Buffalo (AAA) 0-1, 10.80ERA, 5IP, 3BB, 7K, .350BAA
Akron (AA) 8-5, 4.18ERA, 88.1IP, 38BB, 90K, .260BAA

#28 Johnny Cueto · Cincinnati Reds · Pre: NR
Louisville (AAA) 1-0, 3.60ERA, 5IP, 6K, .238BAA
Chattanooga (AA) 2-0, 0.47ERA, 19IP, 4BB, 27K, .172BAA
Sarasota (High-A) 4-5, 3.33ERA, 78.1IP, 21BB, 72K, .238BAA

#29 Fernando Martinez · New York Mets · Pre: 46
Binghamton (AA) 60G .271, 11(2B), 1(3B), 4HR, 21RBI, 20BB, 51K, 3SB

#30 Travis Snider · Toronto Blue Jays · Pre: 65
Lansing (Low-A) 72G .313, 23(2B), 5(3B), 7HR, 56RBI, 30BB, 70K, 3SB

#31 Carlos Carrasco · Philadelphia Phillies · Pre: 50
Reading (AA) 3-0, 3.48ERA, 20.2IP, 12BB, 14K, .200BAA
Clearwater (High-A) 6-2, 2.84ERA, 69.2IP, 22BB, 53K, .199BAA

#32 Eric Hurley · Texas Rangers · Pre: 77
Oklahoma (AAA) 1-2, 4.32ERA, 16.2IP, 7BB, 17K, .233BAA
Frisco (AA) 7-2, 3.25ERA, 88.2IP, 27BB, 76K, .219BAA

#33 Carlos Gomez · New York Mets · Pre: 38
New York Mets (MLB) 42G .250, 3(2B), 2HR, 11RBI, 7BB, 26K, 9SB
New Orleans (AAA) 36G .286, 8(2B), 2(3B), 2HR, 13RBI, 15BB, 23K, 17SB

#34 Max Scherzer · Arizona Diamondbacks · Pre: NR
Mobile (AA) 1-2, 3.68ERA, 22IP, 9BB, 26K, .241BAA
Visalia (High-A) 2-0, 0.53ERA, 17IP, 2BB, 30K, .089BAA

#35 Ian Kennedy · New York Yankees · Pre: NR
Trenton (AA) 5-1, 2.43ERA, 37IP, 14BB, 43K, .165BAA
Tampa (High-A) 6-1, 1.29ERA, 63IP, 22BB, 72K, .183BAA

#36 Carlos Gonzalez · Arizona Diamondbacks · Pre: 20
Mobile (AA) 83G .256, 20(2B), 2(3B), 11HR, 48RBI, 19BB, 72K, 6SB

#37 Nick Adenhart · Los Angeles Angels · Pre: 58
Arkansas (AA) 6-2, 3.33ERA, 94.2IP, 39BB, 67K, .266BAA

#38 Ian Stewart · Colorado Rockies · Pre: 60
Colorado Springs (AAA) 82G .299, 18(2B), 2(3B), 11HR, 51RBI, 40BB, 66K, 5SB

#39 Josh Fields · Chicago White Sox · Pre: 15
Chicago White Sox (MLB) 31G .252, 6(2B), 5HR, 18RBI, 9BB, 40K
56G .283, 14(2B), 10HR, 37RBI, 39BB, 60K, 8SB

#40 Joey Votto · Cincinnati Reds · Pre: 42
Louisville (AAA) 83G .315, 14(2B), 2(3B), 11HR, 50RBI, 50BB, 66K, 10SB

#41 Trevor Crowe · Cleveland Indians · Pre: 70
Akron (AA) 84G .223, 12(2B), 1(3B), 4HR, 33RBI, 41BB, 45K, 16SB

#42 Neil Walker · Pittsburgh Pirates · Pre: 79
Altoona (AA) 83G .297, 24(2B), 2(3B), 12HR, 44RBI, 32BB, 50K, 7SB

#43 Jeff Clement · Seattle Mariners · Pre: 35
Tacoma (AAA) 80G .274, 24(2B), 1(3B), 15HR, 48RBI, 39BB, 53K

#44 Gio Gonzalez · Chicago White Sox · Pre: NR
Birmingham (AA) 6-4, 3.10ERA, 95.2IP, 36BB, 115K, .229BAA

#45 Billy Rowell · Baltimore Orioles · Pre: 95
Delmarva (Low-A) 39G .282, 10(2B), 1(3B), 3HR, 27RBI, 14BB, 46K, 3SB

#46 Troy Patton · Houston Astros · Pre: 56
Round Rock (AAA) 1-0, 1.29ERA, 7IP, 2K, .182BAA
Corpus Christi (AA) 6-6, 2.99ERA, 102.1IP, 33BB, 68K, .247BAA

#47 Luke Hochevar · Kansas City Royals · Pre: 22
Wichita (AA) 3-6, 4.69ERA, 94IP, 26BB, 94K, .286BAA

#48 Chris Marrero · Washington Nationals · Pre: NR
Potomac (High-A) 19G .299, 5(2B), 2(3B), 2HR, 14RBI, 10BB, 19K
Hagerstown (Low-A) 57G .293, 14(2B), 14HR, 53RBI, 14BB, 39K

#49 Ryan Sweeney · Chicago White Sox · Pre: 68
Chicago White Sox (MLB) 15G .200, 3(2B), 1HR, 5RBI, 4BB, 5K
Charlotte (AAA) 68IP .285, 12(2B), 2(3B), 5HR, 28RBI, 29BB, 49K, 5SB

#50 Will Inman · Milwaukee Brewers · Pre: 82
Huntsville (AA) 1-4, 8.06ERA, 22.1IP, 8BB, 25K, .307BAA
Brevard County (High-A) 4-3, 1.72ERA, 78.2IP, 23BB, 98K, .198BAA


#51 Dellin Betances · New York Yankees · Pre: NR
Staten Island (Short-A) 1-1, 3.00ERA, 18IP, 13BB, 22K, .265BAA

#52 Kevin Slowey · Minnesota Twins · Pre: 63
Minnesota (MLB) 3-0, 5.84ERA, 37IP, 9BB, 19K, .323BAA
Rochester (AAA) 6-2, 1.54ERA, 64.1IP, 5BB, 57K, .200BAA

#53 Scott Elbert · Los Angeles Dodgers · Pre: 14
Jacksonville (AA) 0-1, 3.86ERA, 14IP, 10BB, 24K, .128BAA

#54 Brett Anderson · Arizona Diamondbacks · Pre: NR
Visalia (High-A) 1-1, 5.02ERA, 14.1IP, 5BB, 13K, .322BAA
South Bend (Low-A) 8-4, 2.21ERA, 81.1IP, 10BB, 85K, .248BAA

#55 Jeff Niemann · Tampa Bay Devil Rays · Pre: 29
Durham (AAA) 9-5, 3.75ERA, 98.1IP, 39BB, 93K, .265BAA

#56 Elvis Andrus · Atlanta Braves · Pre: 47
Myrtle Beach (High-A) 81G .243, 16(2B), 3(3B), 3HR, 33RBI, 37BB, 72K, 21SB

#57 Steven Pearce · Pittsburgh Pirates · Pre: NR
Altoona (AA) 63G .330, 20(2B), 2(3B), 11HR, 51RBI, 25BB, 36K, 2SB
Lynchburg (High-A) 19G .347, 4(2B), 1(3B), 11HR, 24RBI, 8BB, 13K, 2SB

#58 Dexter Fowler · Colorado Rockies · Pre: 85
Modesto (High-A) 65G .273, 7(2B), 5(3B), 2HR, 23RBI, 44BB, 64K, 20SB

#59 Chase Headley · San Diego Padres · Pre: NR
San Diego (MLB) 7G .176, 1(2B), 2BB, 4K
San Antonio (AA) 70G .345, 22(2B), 3(3B), 14HR, 46RBI, 42BB, 62K, 1SB

#60 Kurt Suzuki · Oakland Athletics · Pre: NR
Oakland (MLB) 8G .304, 1(2B), 2HR, 4RBI, 2BB, 5K
Sacramento (AAA) 55G .280, 9(2B), 3HR, 27RBI, 21BB, 41K

#61 Wladimir Balentien · Seattle Mariners · Pre: NR
Tacoma (AAA) 85G .328, 20(2B), 4(3B), 20HR, 66RBI, 39BB, 67K, 13SB

#62 Chris Mason · Tampa Bay Devil Rays · Pre: NR
Montgomery (AA) 10-4, 2.51ERA, 104IP, 27BB, 89K, .226BAA

#63 Michael Bowden · Boston Red Sox · Pre: NR
Portland (AA) 3-4, 5.11ERA, 49.1IP, 23BB, 39K, .272BAA
Lancaster (High-A) 2-0, 1.37ERA, 46IP, 8BB, 46K, .212BAA

#64 Garrett Olson · Baltimore Orioles · Pre: NR
Baltimore (MLB) 0-0, 4.15ERA, 4.1IP, 5BB, 4K, .333BAA
Norfolk (AAA) 7-6, 3.46ERA, 104IP, 31BB, 94K, .211BAA

#65 Matt DeSalvo · New York Yankees · Pre: NR
New York Yankees (MLB) 1-3, 5.87ERA, 23IP, 16BB, 6K, .297BAA
Scranton (AAA) 6-1, 2.21ERA, 61IP, 28BB, 62K, .205BAA

#66 Tyler Colvin · Chicago Cubs · Pre: 78
Tennessee (AA) 18G .243, 4(2B), 2HR, 5RBI, 1BB, 18K
Dayton (High-A) 63G .306, 24(2B), 3(3B), 7HR, 50RBI, 10BB, 47K, 10SB

#67 Adrian Cardenas · Philadelphia Phillies · Pre: NR
Lakewood (Low-A) 76G .307, 19(2B), 1(3B), 7HR, 49RBI, 26BB, 45K, 15SB

#68 Taylor Teagarden · Texas Rangers · Pre: NR
Bakersfield (High-A) 65G .322, 22(2B), 13HR, 50RBI, 53BB, 66K, 2SB

#69 Colin Balester · Washington Nationals · Pre: 100
Harrisburg (AA) 2-7, 3.74ERA, 98.2IP, 25BB, 77K, .268ERA

#70 Radhames Liz · Baltimore Orioles · Pre: NR
Bowie (AA) 6-4, 3.73ERA, 91.2IP, 49BB, 101K, .214BAA

#71 Jeremy Jeffress · Milwaukee Brewers · Pre: NR
West Virginia (Low-A) 5-2, 2.36ERA, 34.1IP, 17BB, 31K, .229BAA

#72 Glen Perkins · Minnesota Twins · Pre: NR
Minnesota (MLB) 0-0, 3.80ERA, 23.2IP, 12BB, 16K, .247BAA
Rochester (AAA) 0-0, 1.50ERA, 6IP, 1BB, 2K, .105BAA

#73 Brandon Hynick · Colorado Rockies · Pre: NR
Modesto (High-A) 9-2, 2.60ERA, 107.1IP, 16BB, 76K, .252BAA

#74 Greg Reynolds · Colorado Rockies · Pre: NR
Tulsa (AA) 4-1, 1.42ERA, 50.2IP, 9BB, 35K, .180BAA

#75 Gorkys Hernandez · Detroit Tigers · Pre: NR
West Michigan (Low-A) 77G .294, 14(2B), 1(3B), 3HR, 39RBI, 22BB, 43K, 33SB

#76 Manny Parra · Milwaukee Brewers · Pre: NR
Nashville (AAA) 3-1, 1.73ERA, 26IP, 7BB, 25K, .172BAA
Huntsville (AA) 7-3, 2.68ERA, 80.2IP, 26BB, 81K, .234BAA

#77 Tommy Hanson · Atlanta Braves · Pre: NR
Myrtle Beach (High-A) 0-0, 1.80ERA, 5IP, 3BB, 8K, .235BAA
Rome (Low-A) 2-6, 2.59ERA, 73IP, 26BB, 90K, .194BAA

#78 Wade LeBlanc · San Diego Padres · Pre: NR
San Antonio (AA) 1-0, 3.60ERA, 5IP, 3BB, 3K, .222BAA
Lake Elsinore (High-A) 6-5, 2.64ERA, 92IP, 17BB, 90K, .212ERA

#79 Jeff Manship · Minnesota Twins · Pre: NR
Fort Myers (High-A) 2-1, 2.93ERA, 15.1IP, 7BB, 16K, .233BAA
Beloit (Low-A) 7-1, 1.51ERA, 77.2IP, 9BB, 77K, .185BAA

#80 Brandon Jones · Atlanta Braves · Pre: NR
Mississippi (AA) 87G, .287, 18(2B), 4(3B), 13HR, 64RBI, 41BB, 79K, 12SB


#81 Chris Carter · Arizona Diamondbacks · Pre: NR
Tucson (AAA) 86G .327, 28(2B), 1(3B), 9HR, 47RBI, 36BB, 40K, 1SB

#82 Nate Schierholtz · San Francisco Giants · Pre: 75
San Francisco (MLB) 14G .325, 1(2B), 1(3B), 3RBI, 1BB, 7K, 1SB
Fresno (AAA) 64G .341, 22(2B), 4(3B), 4HR, 36RBI, 9BB, 30K, 6SB

#83 Ross Detwiler · Washington Nationals · Pre: NR
1st Round Pick Has Not Play In 2007

#84 Chris Parmelee · Minnesota Twins · Pre: NR
Beloit (Low-A) 82G .239, 14(2B), 5(3B), 11HR, 45RBI, 29BB, 79K, 8SB

#85 Henry Sosa · San Francisco Giants · Pre: NR
San Jose (High-A) 0-1, 5.82ERA, 17IP, 13BB, 17K, .246BAA
Augusta (Low-A) 6-0, 0.73ERA, 62IP, 25BB, 61K, .144BAA

#86 Brandon Erbe · Baltimore Orioles · Pre: 80
Frederick (High-A) 5-3, 5.33ERA, 77.2IP, 45BB, 70K, .248BAA

#87 Aaron Cunningham · Arizona Diamondbacks · Pre: NR
Visalia (High-A) 12G, .345, 7(2B), 1(3B), 5RBI, 1BB, 8K, 1SB
Winston Salem (High-A) 67G .294, 12(2B), 5(3B), 8HR, 37RBI, 34BB, 39K, 22SB

#88 Cedric Hunter · San Diego Padres · Pre: NR
Fort Wayne (Low-A) 83G .281, 13(2B), 2(3B), 3HR, 34RBI, 25BB, 42K, 4SB

#89 John Mayberry Jr · Texas Rangers · Pre: NR
Frisco (AA) 21G .292, 4(2B), 4HR, 13RBI, 7BB, 16K, 3SB
Bakersfield (High-A) 63G .230, 15(2B), 1(3B), 16HR, 45RBI, 28BB, 64K, 9SB

#90 Bryan Anderson · St. Louis Cardinals · Pre: NR
Springfield (AA) 61G .317, 9(2B), 1(3B), 5HR, 33RBI, 21BB, 40K

#91 Brett Sinkbeil · Florida Marlins · Pre: NR
Jupiter (High-A) 3-4, 4.14ERA, 54.1IP, 11BB, 35K, .272BAA

#92 Matt LaPorta · Milwaukee Brewers · Pre: NR
1st Round Pick Has Not Play In 2007

#93 Jaime Garcia · St. Louis Cardinals · Pre: NR
Springfield (AA) 4-8, 3.89ERA, 90.1IP, 36BB, 86K, .247BAA

#94 Trevor Cahill · Oakland Athletics · Pre: NR
Kane County (Low-A) 4-3, 3.59ERA, 47.2IP, 21BB, 54K, .250BAA

#95 Kasey Kiker · Texas Rangers · Pre: NR
Clinton (Low-A) 3-2, 2.25ERA, 44IP, 17BB, 58K, .217BAA

#96 Kyle Drabek · Philadelphia Phillies · Pre: NR
Lakewood (Low-A) 5-1, 4.33ERA, 54IP, 23BB, 46K, .239ERA

#97 Carlos Triunfel · Seattle Mariners · Pre: NR
High Desert (High-A) 3G .500, 1(2B), 1RBI, BB,
Wisconsin (Low-A) 43G .309, 8(2B), 2(3B), 14RBI, 5BB, 23K, 4SB
AZL Mariners (Rookie) 3G .273, 3RBI, 1K

#98 Jeff Samardzija · Chicago Cubs · Pre: NR
Daytona (High-A) 2-5, 4.73ERA, 80IP, 28BB, 31K, .318BAA

#99 Kyle Blanks · San Diego Padres · Pre: NR
Lake Elsinore (High-A) 77G, 21(2B), 4(3B), 15HR, 70RBI, 30BB, 66K, 7SB

#100 Philip Humber · New York Mets · Pre: 54
New Orleans (AAA) 9-6, 4.48ERA, 96.1IP, 24BB, 81K, .269BAA

http://www.topprospectalert.com/top100baseballprospects.htm

dougdirt
07-09-2007, 05:58 PM
That list has its good and bad points. First off, it was put together by a guy that I have spent a few years talking about prospects with. The problem is he sent in a top 100 list, that also included Reds 3rd round pick Neftali Soto at 95. The publisher of the website took it upon himself to rearrange the chairs and add and subtract a few guys....

So all in all, I really have no clue what to make of that list.

reds44
07-09-2007, 07:01 PM
Yeah that wasn't the BA list either.

BoydsOfSummer
07-09-2007, 08:03 PM
Look who is back from the dead...

#76 Manny Parra · Milwaukee Brewers · Pre: NR
Nashville (AAA) 3-1, 1.73ERA, 26IP, 7BB, 25K, .172BAA
Huntsville (AA) 7-3, 2.68ERA, 80.2IP, 26BB, 81K, .234BAA


Here is a bit of a disappointment in my eyes. I expected a bit more I guess.

#88 Cedric Hunter · San Diego Padres · Pre: NR
Fort Wayne (Low-A) 83G .281, 13(2B), 2(3B), 3HR, 34RBI, 25BB, 42K, 4SB

Benihana
07-10-2007, 12:09 PM
That list has its good and bad points. First off, it was put together by a guy that I have spent a few years talking about prospects with. The problem is he sent in a top 100 list, that also included Reds 3rd round pick Neftali Soto at 95. The publisher of the website took it upon himself to rearrange the chairs and add and subtract a few guys....

So all in all, I really have no clue what to make of that list.

Ranking Neftali Soto at 95 may be a bit premature, no?

dougdirt
07-10-2007, 12:31 PM
Ranking Neftali Soto at 95 may be a bit premature, no?

A little bit, but the guy is said to have a premium bat. His defense is still a work in progress. We will see how that turns out toward the end of the season in terms of where he actually ranks. I wouldn't have put him that high, that is for sure. For that matter I didn't rank him in my top 10 Reds prospects, but that can easily change by years end.

Benihana
07-10-2007, 12:52 PM
By years end, maybe, but one month in rookie ball is a little too small. I'm of the belief that a guy must at least perform well in single-A ball before he should ever be considered for a top prospect list. Maybe if a guy is a HS phenom (re: top 10 draft pick) it can be considered an exception.

Soto has looked very good so far, but it hasn't been a big enough sample size to justify jumping him over 100 other prospects drafted before him just one month ago.

dougdirt
07-10-2007, 01:09 PM
Well, we will agree almost to the point on the high school guys not being top 100 guys. There are certain exceptions (Bruce, Upton, Maybin, Rasmus, Rowell) that all jumped to mind right away.

The one thing about Soto and being drafted later, he was playing in a place that doesn't get as many views and therefore was not getting as much love. I think its too early to have him that high, but if JP (who made the original list) is basing things off of performance and upside, then I can at least listen to his arguement for Soto at this point.

flyer85
07-10-2007, 01:36 PM
I don't see how a guy who strikes out as much as Bruce(85Ks in half a season) could be considered such a high prospect. :p:

BRM
07-10-2007, 01:37 PM
I don't see how a guy who strikes out as much as Bruce(85Ks in half a season) could be considered such a high prospect. :p:

Bruce's strikeout rate does have me concerned with how he will be received by the Cincinnati media and fanbase.

BucksandReds
07-10-2007, 01:39 PM
Bruce's strikeout rate does have me concerned with how he will be received by the Cincinnati media and fanbase.

#1 He won't strike out as much as Dunn
#2 He plays better defense than Dunn
#3 He'll hit for a higher average than Dunn
#4 His name is not Adam Dunn

princeton
07-10-2007, 01:39 PM
Patton, Teagarden, Anderson and Drabek? Why, those are princeton cyberdraftees.

flyer85
07-10-2007, 01:43 PM
#1 He won't strike out as much as Dunn
what makes you think that?

Dunn hit over .300 in his minor league career. He also struck at a lower rate than Bruce and walked at a much higher rate.

BRM
07-10-2007, 01:48 PM
#1 He won't strike out as much as Dunn
#2 He plays better defense than Dunn
#3 He'll hit for a higher average than Dunn
#4 His name is not Adam Dunn

1) Maybe, maybe not
2) Very true
3) Adam Dunn had a career minor league BA of .304 so who knows what to expect
4) Good point

Let's just hope Jay hits .300 w/RISP and has a dozen sac flies his rookie year.

dougdirt
07-10-2007, 01:55 PM
what makes you think that?

Dunn hit over .300 in his minor league career. He also struck at a lower rate than Bruce and walked at a much higher rate.

Dunn in the minors was a different breed of hitter than he was once he stepped onto the field in the majors. They made dramatic changes in his approach when he got to the Reds.

flyer85
07-10-2007, 02:03 PM
Dunn in the minors was a different breed of hitter than he was once he stepped onto the field in the majors. They made dramatic changes in his approach when he got to the Reds.and Jay Bruce isn't their yet and we really have no idea what will happen to him.

If he wasn't a Reds prospect people would be bothered by his high K rate and middling walk rate. I am not bothered by either individually but taken together his BB/K(98/244, 32/85 this year) rate is a yellow flag that everyone around here is just ignoring. A rate below 0.5 is a warning. All the other offensive players in the top 15 are at 0.5 or above.

Anyone want to know what can happen when you hit the majors vs the minors, take a look at Butler's and Saltalamacchia's BB/K ratios.

Benihana
07-10-2007, 02:03 PM
Samardzija in any top prospect list is an absolute joke. He's putting up terrible numbers and there is already talk of converting him into an OF. That alone makes this list lose credibility.

Benihana
07-10-2007, 02:03 PM
Patton, Teagarden, Anderson and Drabek? Why, those are princeton cyberdraftees.

so who did you cyberdraft this year?

dougdirt
07-10-2007, 02:18 PM
and Jay Bruce isn't their yet and we really have no idea what will happen to him.

If he wasn't a Reds prospect people would be bothered by his high K rate and middling walk rate. I am not bothered by either individually but taken together his BB/K(98/244, 32/85 this year) rate is a yellow flag that everyone around here is just ignoring. A rate below 0.5 is a warning. All the other offensive players in the top 15 are at 0.5 or above.

As long as he is drawing a walk at or near once every 12 plate appearances, I am not worried at all about his walk rate. Strikeouts are nearly meaningless unless he gets into BJ Szymanski territory. Sure, some of the other guys have better walk/strikeouts rates. None of them have the power that Jay does though. Back to Jays walkrate though, since coming to AA it has improved quite a bit. He has 8 walks in 69 plate appearances and 18 strikeouts. He has also walked in 6 straight games down there. On the season he has 32 walks in 367 appearances, which has him walking once every 11.48 times he steps to the plate. Its not anything great, but it is well within acceptable lines for a 20 year old.

Falls City Beer
07-10-2007, 02:27 PM
#1 He won't strike out as much as Dunn
#2 He plays better defense than Dunn
#3 He'll hit for a higher average than Dunn
#4 His name is not Adam Dunn

None of that matters. If he Ks a bunch, he'll be a target, even if he puts up Pujols numbers.

flyer85
07-10-2007, 02:27 PM
I am not worried at all about his walk rate. Strikeouts are nearly meaningless unless he gets into BJ Szymanski territory.BTW, strikeouts are either meaningless or they are not. Can't have it both ways. The truth be told, taken individually BB and Ks only paint a partial picture. Neither are particularly important on their own, but if you want a true picture of plate discipline the two stats always need to be evaluated together.

BB/K rates
.00 to .25 red flag(a hacker)
.25 to .50 yellow flag(a potential hacker moving forward)
.50 to .75 not a problem( somewhat patient hitter, keep an eye on it)
.75 and above - (hitter with plate discipline, very likely to have success going forward).

dougdirt
07-10-2007, 02:30 PM
None of that matters. If he Ks a bunch, he'll be a target, even if he puts up Pujols numbers.

Thats not true at all. If he hits .280/.350/.550 with 35+ Hr and 100+ RBI it wont matter if he strikes out 125 times in a season. The only person that people complain about with strikeouts around here is AdamDunn and he strikes out mroe than anyone in the history of the game. If Adam Dunn were to strike out 180 times and do what Ryan Howard did last year, no one would complain because he put up 'numbers'. Honestly, your typical fan doesnt care that Adam Dunn walks 100 times a year because he doesnt drive in runs despite being a home run hitter.

Falls City Beer
07-10-2007, 02:36 PM
BTW, strikeouts are either meaningless or they are not. Can't have it both ways. The truth be told, taken individually BB and Ks only paint a partial picture. Neither are particularly important on their own, but if you want a true picture of plate discipline the two stats always need to be evaluated together.

BB/K rates
.00 to .25 red flag(a hacker)
.25 to .50 yellow flag(a potential hacker moving forward)
.50 to .75 not a problem( somewhat patient hitter, keep an eye on it)
.75 and above - (hitter with plate discipline, very likely to have success going forward).

I see what you're saying, but I gotta agree with doug, it's a bit early to make any real determination here. What he's doing right is currently blowing away what he's doing "wrong."

This isn't troubling in the way Bailey's command problems are troubling, IMO.

flyer85
07-10-2007, 02:36 PM
If Adam Dunn were to strike out 180 times and do what Ryan Howard did last year, no one would complain because he put up 'numbers'. Howard is striking out a higher rate than Dunn, if Howard had not spent time on the DL he would be on pace for 220+ Ks this season(yet Howard is still a productive hitter). The reason Dunn(and Howard as well) gets to put up those K numbers is simply because they still remain productive hitters while doing it. Other high K guys lose their productivity and their playing time as their Ks reach those levels, Dunn and Howard do not.

BTW, Kearns has cut his K rate down by 30-40% this year, not doing him a lot of good at the moment.

flyer85
07-10-2007, 02:45 PM
What he's doing right is currently blowing away what he's doing "wrong."

This isn't troubling in the way Bailey's command problems are troubling, IMO.It is simply a "yellow flag", that needs to be watched as he moves forward. Billy Butlers AAA vs majors stats give you an idea to what can actually happen to bb/k rates when a player hits the major leagues. I am not suggesting that Bulter will stay anywhere neat 1/16, he is almost a lock for future success a hitter based on his track record and great BB/K rates in the minors.

Bruce has a potential wart, all I am pointing out is that it is something to keep an eye on.

BTW, K/BB rates are very important in tracking minor league pitchers as well. It is why I have never been as high on Bailey as most around here.

For a minor league hitter a BB/K rate below 0.5 shows a lack of plate of plate discipline. A minor league pitcher with a K/BB rate below 2.0 shows a lack of dominance.

The other factor that is just as important when evaluating minor league numbers is age/level. Both Bruce and Bailey are way ahead of the curve on that one.

princeton
07-10-2007, 02:46 PM
so who did you cyberdraft this year?


on draft morning I went out to get a BA rag, and could find only the previous month's issue. So I was forced to pass -- the Reds were on their own for once. No pressure on them whatsoever.

they needed a year to catch up to me anyway.

dougdirt
07-10-2007, 02:52 PM
Howard is striking out a higher rate than Dunn, if Howard had not spent time on the DL he would be on pace for 220+ Ks this season(yet Howard is still a productive hitter). The reason Dunn(and Howard as well) gets to put up those K numbers is simply because they still remain productive hitters while doing it. Other high K guys lose their productivity and their playing time as their Ks reach those levels, Dunn and Howard do not.

BTW, Kearns has cut his K rate down by 30-40% this year, not doing him a lot of good at the moment.

Oh I think you misunderstood my stance there. I dont care one ounce about how often Dunn strikes out as long as he continues to get on base and slug over .500. My point was more along the lines of Ryan Howard struck out 181 times last season, but if he produced the exact same numbers he did last year in Philly for the Reds, even Marty would love him because he hit .300, hit home runs and drove in a ton of runs. People give Adam Dunn crap for his strikeouts because he does it a ton (like Howard) but he doesn't drive in runners despite the fact that he hits 40 HR a year like nearly every other player who hits 40 HR a year over the last 15 years.
Since 1997 there have been 113 40 home runs seasons in baseball. only 10 times has a player with 40 home runs failed to drive in 103 runs. Adam Dunn counts for 3 of those seasons. Barry Bonds also counts for 3 of those seasons, of course he walked 145/148/232 times in those seasons including over 200 intential walks in those three seasons combined. Soriano did it last year, although he was a leadoff hitter and had few RBI chances. That is one of the main reasons, in my mind that Adam Dunn gets so much for his strikeouts.

Falls City Beer
07-10-2007, 03:04 PM
It is simply a "yellow flag", that needs to be watched as he moves forward. Billy Butlers AAA vs majors stats give you an idea to what can actually happen to bb/k rates when a player hits the major leagues. I am not suggesting that Bulter will stay anywhere neat 1/16, he is almost a lock for future success a hitter based on his track record and great BB/K rates in the minors.

Bruce has a potential wart, all I am pointing out is that it is something to keep an eye on.

BTW, K/BB rates are very important in tracking minor league pitchers as well. It is why I have never been as high on Bailey as most around here.

For a minor league hitter a BB/K rate below 0.5 shows a lack of plate of plate discipline. A minor league pitcher with a K/BB rate below 2.0 shows a lack of dominance.

The other factor that is just as important when evaluating minor league numbers is age/level. Both Bruce and Bailey are way ahead of the curve on that one.

And all I'm saying, I guess, is that a pitcher has way less room to "get it wrong" in an area like pitch command. I believe Bruce can fudge a bit on his K/BB rate, but I don't think Bailey (or any pitcher for that matter) can, not at this point anyway, and certainly not in the majors. I think K/BB is more important for pitchers in general than it is for hitters. JMO. I think Bruce can be a great major league hitter with just a small tweak in his K/BB, whereas if Bailey doesn't fix what's ailing him, he'll likely be gone from the game in a couple of years.

REDblooded
07-10-2007, 03:06 PM
Dunn draws so much criticism from his strikeouts because they typically occur with RISP, and in critical game moments. Bruce doesn't appear to be the same type of hitter. And yes, that's the difference between strikeouts being meaningless, and being a factor.

Benihana
07-10-2007, 03:06 PM
so, anybody know when BA's midseason list comes out?

flyer85
07-10-2007, 03:07 PM
Ryan Howard struck out 181 times last season, but if he produced the exact same numbers he did last year in Philly for the Reds, even Marty would love him because he hit .300, hit home runs and drove in a ton of runs. one thing you need to realize is that Howards .300 batting average was a bit of a fluke. His contact rate was basically the same as Dunns.

And BTW, Howard is also one of the worst defensive 1bs in all of baseball. I have little doubt that Marty would grow to dislike Howard as well.

dougdirt
07-10-2007, 03:10 PM
one thing you need to realize is that Howards .300 batting average was a bit of a fluke. His contact rate was basically the same as Dunns.

And BTW, Howard is also one of the worst defensive 1bs in all of baseball. I have little doubt that Marty would grow to dislike Howard as well.

I dont care whether his average was a fluke or not. I am not arguing anything other than the fact that if Adam Dunn put up the counting stats that Howard did, no one would talk about him striking out too much.

BRM
07-10-2007, 03:14 PM
Dunn draws so much criticism from his strikeouts because they typically occur with RISP, and in critical game moments. Bruce doesn't appear to be the same type of hitter. And yes, that's the difference between strikeouts being meaningless, and being a factor.

Dunn's K rate is actually better with RISP than with the bases empty. It is only slightly better though.

flyer85
07-10-2007, 03:15 PM
I dont care whether his average was a fluke or not. I am not arguing anything other than the fact that if Adam Dunn put up the counting stats that Howard did, no one would talk about him striking out too much.as long as you realize that the numbers of players who put up numbers like Howard, while not being steriod induced, is a very small pool covering the history of the game. Howards season was better than any season in Reds history(counting stats), save maybe one(77 Foster). If that is what it takes to gain approval I would say it is a losing proposition from day one.

BRM
07-10-2007, 03:16 PM
I think Doug's point is that if Dunn drove in 130+ runs, Marty and company would ease up on him about the strikeouts.

dougdirt
07-10-2007, 03:22 PM
I think Doug's point is that if Dunn drove in 130+ runs, Marty and company would ease up on him about the strikeouts.

Exactly. I thought I was making it fairly clear. Heck I think if Dunn drove in 115 Marty and others would ease up on him. The fact of the matter is though historically he is one of the worst players to drive in runs for guys that hit 40 home runs over the last 11 seasons.

flyer85
07-10-2007, 03:23 PM
I think Doug's point is that if Dunn drove in 130+ runs, Marty and company would ease up on him about the strikeouts.RBIs are a team dependent stat. I would dare say that Howard was more than helped a little by guys named Rollins, Abreu and Utley.

Howard would be hard pressed to duplicate it with a team that had Freel, the versions of Jr(non 2007) and the myriad of 2 hole hitters the Reds have had there.

130+ RBI seasons are awfuly rare.

BRM
07-10-2007, 03:25 PM
I don't disagree with you flyer. Howard certainly had better players hitting in front of him than Dunn did. Who was typically Howard's protection last year?

Benihana
07-10-2007, 03:40 PM
uggghhh, can we not hijack one simple thread that has nothing to do with Adam Dunn?!?!

BRM
07-10-2007, 03:42 PM
uggghhh, can we not hijack one simple thread that has nothing to do with Adam Dunn?!?!

This is probably my fault. I threw the thought out there that Bruce may not be well received when he arrives in Cincinnati due to his strikeout rate. I apologize for indirectly getting this ball rolling. I honestly did not intend for this thread to turn into a Dunn debate.

dougdirt
07-10-2007, 04:35 PM
Just thought I would toss this into the mix

http://blogs.chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/sports_hardball/2007/07/fast-food-for-2.html


3. I'm no scout -- I only play one for the Tribune and Baseball America -- but the two best-looking players I saw were Cincinnati right fielder Jay Bruce and Upton, who is playing center field but has the ability to play shortstop or anywhere else except catcher. Bruce, who is tearing up Double-A, is a monster who might make Adam Dunn expendable. He raced to third base on a triple off the top of the wall in right-center -- the deepest part of the park -- and fired a bullet to the plate at one point.

Benihana
07-17-2007, 04:53 PM
annnnnnnnnnnnnnnd... they're out!

anyone care to pm me the list? ;)

11larkin11
07-17-2007, 04:55 PM
I'd take a pm too:D

Grande Donkey
07-17-2007, 04:55 PM
Me too please

New Fever
07-17-2007, 05:08 PM
Reds Prospects on Their list include (No 2007 Draft Picks):

Top 25

2. Jay Bruce
5. Homer Bailey- Even though he's stuggled in his first stint with the big club he's still has the best arm in the minors. That's basically what they said.
18. Joey Votto

On The Top 100 List Now If It Ended Today- Johnny Cueto and Chris Valakia

Surprising Drew Stubbs wasn't mentioned as a dissapointment, kind of like they forgot about him.

HBP
07-17-2007, 07:57 PM
Jay's on the BA front page right now

dougdirt
07-17-2007, 08:26 PM
I am going to assume that Justin Upton came in at #1?

11larkin11
07-17-2007, 10:50 PM
Valaika still up there? That surprises me.

New Fever
07-17-2007, 11:27 PM
All 2005 draft outfielders in the top 3.

dougdirt
07-17-2007, 11:29 PM
Cameron Maybin at #3 is an absolute joke. Period.

New Fever
07-17-2007, 11:31 PM
Doug would he be in your top 10?

edabbs44
07-17-2007, 11:33 PM
Reds Prospects on Their list include (No 2007 Draft Picks):

Top 25

2. Jay Bruce
5. Homer Bailey- Even though he's stuggled in his first stint with the big club he's still has the best arm in the minors. That's basically what they said.
18. Joey Votto

On The Top 100 List Now If It Ended Today- Johnny Cueto and Chris Valakia

Surprising Drew Stubbs wasn't mentioned as a dissapointment, kind of like they forgot about him.

Maybe they never had high hopes for him.

dougdirt
07-17-2007, 11:45 PM
Doug would he be in your top 10?

Well, he might be right around #10. BA didnt include Phil Hughes, although he may not be eligible because was was on the roster for so long even though injured.
My top 10 would probably look like this:
1. Jay Bruce
2. Justin Upton

3. Evan Longoria
4. Homer Bailey
5. Clayton Kershaw
6. Clay Bucholz
7. Adam Jones
8. Jacob McGee
9. Joba Chamberlain
10. Colby Rasmus

The next few guys would include Maybin, Davis and Wood. I just cant justify a guy who needs to learn to hit still as the #3 prospect in baseball. His upside is very high, but there comes a point when your upside needs to be closer to being reached and I don't see any improvement in Camerons game from last season to this season.... and thats not good because he was and still is fairly raw.

New Fever
07-17-2007, 11:49 PM
No, I think they did because he was in the Top 100 last year. I went back and check the Top 100 from last year and a couple other guys weren't mentioned as well. But I still think it was odd, not to have him on the list of players playing their way out of the Top 100. Maybe he'll be on there again next year.

edabbs44
07-17-2007, 11:49 PM
Well, he might be right around #10. BA didnt include Phil Hughes, although he may not be eligible because was was on the roster for so long even though injured.
My top 10 would probably look like this:
1. Jay Bruce
2. Justin Upton

3. Evan Longoria
4. Homer Bailey
5. Clayton Kershaw
6. Clay Bucholz
7. Adam Jones
8. Jacob McGee
9. Joba Chamberlain
10. Colby Rasmus

The next few guys would include Maybin, Davis and Wood. I just cant justify a guy who needs to learn to hit still as the #3 prospect in baseball. His upside is very high, but there comes a point when your upside needs to be closer to being reached and I don't see any improvement in Camerons game from last season to this season.... and thats not good because he was and still is fairly raw.

Was there an intentional space in between #2 and #3? I can't see there being that big of a drop to Longoria.

dougdirt
07-17-2007, 11:53 PM
Was there an intentional space in between #2 and #3? I can't see there being that big of a drop to Longoria.

Yes there was an intentional space becuase I think those two guys are on a completely different level than everyone else in terms of being prospects. Longoria is very solid, obviously as I have him as my #3 prospect in baseball. I just think that much more highly of Upton and Bruce.

I would love to see the rest of their list, but I will have to check out the paper next time I go to the mall for the list, as all I have seen is the top 25. That said, maybe I just have higher expectations for what I consider a top 10 prospect but a lot of guys I just can't justify in my head as being top 10 prospects regardless of whether I think they are better than anyone else outside the top 6 or 7....

SteelSD
07-18-2007, 09:22 AM
Well, he might be right around #10. BA didnt include Phil Hughes, although he may not be eligible because was was on the roster for so long even though injured.

My top 10 would probably look like this:
1. Jay Bruce
2. Justin Upton

3. Evan Longoria
4. Homer Bailey
5. Clayton Kershaw
6. Clay Bucholz
7. Adam Jones
8. Jacob McGee
9. Joba Chamberlain
10. Colby Rasmus

The next few guys would include Maybin, Davis and Wood. I just cant justify a guy who needs to learn to hit still as the #3 prospect in baseball. His upside is very high, but there comes a point when your upside needs to be closer to being reached and I don't see any improvement in Camerons game from last season to this season.... and thats not good because he was and still is fairly raw.

Cameron Maybin 2006: .304 BA/.387 OBP/.457 SLG
Cameron Maybin 2007: .303 BA/.396 OBP/.466 SLG

He's not hitting?

dougdirt
07-18-2007, 01:29 PM
Cameron Maybin 2006: .304 BA/.387 OBP/.457 SLG
Cameron Maybin 2007: .303 BA/.396 OBP/.466 SLG

He's not hitting?

Look further at those numbers steel. He has 27% of his hits as infield hits. His BABIP is over .400 despite a 10.3 LD %.

Here is a post I made a week or two ago on another site about Maybin.

His entire statline looks good because of his speed. OK, not completely, becuase his OBP is good because of his walks. His average and his slugging are completely boosted by his speed though.

Here is my point with Maybin. Normally a players BABIP is LD% plus .120. Well that would set Maybin at .223 for what his BABIP should be. Even if that were to just remove his singles from the equation and keep all of his XBH, his line would now look like .158/.275/.324.

OK, now we have to say that he will get the benefit of his speed, so lets give his BABIP of .223 a boost of 77 points just to make up for how fast he actually is. Now we sit his BABIP at an even .300, which for how soft hitting he is, is being very generous. Again, it will only take away singles and leave his XBH alone, his new line would look like this : .212/.320/.378/.

I look at a guy like Ichiro who also has blazing fast speed, and the largest difference he has had in his career from LD% plus .120 to his actual BABIP was 96 points. His other seasons ranged from -10 to 68. I guess my point is that there is no reason to expect Maybin to continue to have nearly a 180 point difference in actual BABIP to what his BABIP should be based on LD% plus .120.

Maybin is a fine prospect, but he is not a top 10 prospect.

So yes, he is still not hitting in my mind. He is making contact and just running very fast. He is not making any type of solid contact, which can be seen by his 61% ground ball rate and his insane amount of infield singles (21 of his 78 total hits are infield singles).

Aronchis
07-18-2007, 07:40 PM
Maybin seems to lack the explosiveness of Upton and Bruce when it comes to his swing, which is a concern. Stubbs and Maybin are similiar players though Maybin has a much better swing than Drew, sorry to say.

dougdirt
07-18-2007, 07:46 PM
While I think Maybin is a better prospect than Stubbs both have the same problems with their games. Age is on Maybins side.

SteelSD
07-19-2007, 01:05 AM
doug, speed is part of Maybin's game. I'm not saying that I consider Maybin to be one of the top 10 prospects the game right now, but I have a hard time removing his infield hits from his performance because that's a skill set he owns.

But he's certainly hitting and it isn't all singles. His IsoP is .163. The 2007 MLB average is .150. His IsoD this season is .093 versus a MLB average of .068. He's got an eye and that's particularly useful for a player his age. As he fills out, I'd suggest that Maybin is a triple threat due to his speed, eye, and power potential.

If he's not one of the top ten prospects in baseball, that's fine. But he's got a higher ceiling than Colby Rasmus; who hasn't done a whole lot to convince me that he isn't a prospect clubs will forget about over time.

dougdirt
07-19-2007, 03:03 AM
Oh I don't think he is hitting all singles. He has a little pop and his plate discipline, at least in terms of ability to take a walk, is quite good. Maybin has some very good things going for him. His ability to make any type of consistant solid contact isnt one of them though.

I don't want to remove his infield hits from the equation, and I never attempted to do anything of the sort. I just stated that 27% of his hits on the season were infield hits....

He has a higher cieling than Rasmus does, but his floor is also quite a bit lower as well. That said, I have him and Rasmus neck and neck in my eyes, but Rasmus solid abilities across the board have him just slightly ahead of Maybin for now.

SteelSD
07-19-2007, 11:25 AM
doug, if Maybin wasn't capable of consistent solid contact, his IsoD would be far lower than .163- especially if his % of infield singles vs. total hits is that high.

dougdirt
07-19-2007, 12:48 PM
Steel, I disagree. If he made consistant solid contact he wouldnt put the ball on the ground 61% of the time and his line drive % would be higher than 10.3.

Benihana
07-19-2007, 12:54 PM
I will give my top 5. I am stopping there because really, there are a lot of guys that are next in line that I just cant put as top 10 prospects in baseball.

1. Jay Bruce
2. Justin Upton







Very large gap.





3. Evan Longoria
4. Wlad Balentien
5. Adam Jones


Well, he might be right around #10. BA didnt include Phil Hughes, although he may not be eligible because was was on the roster for so long even though injured.
My top 10 would probably look like this:
1. Jay Bruce
2. Justin Upton

3. Evan Longoria
4. Homer Bailey
5. Clayton Kershaw
6. Clay Bucholz
7. Adam Jones
8. Jacob McGee
9. Joba Chamberlain
10. Colby Rasmus

The next few guys would include Maybin, Davis and Wood. I just cant justify a guy who needs to learn to hit still as the #3 prospect in baseball. His upside is very high, but there comes a point when your upside needs to be closer to being reached and I don't see any improvement in Camerons game from last season to this season.... and thats not good because he was and still is fairly raw.

Doug, I'm just curious, but what happened to Balentien that dropped him so much on your list in a week?

dougdirt
07-19-2007, 01:10 PM
Doug, I'm just curious, but what happened to Balentien that dropped him so much on your list in a week?

I saw him play online a few days ago. Maybe he had a bad game or something.... but I didn't like his swing as much as I remembered. Still, he has to go in the top 15, but he dropped some. Maybe I shouldn't have had made a judgement off of 1 game.... but I did.

As for Jones falling behind Bailey and Kershaw.... in the list from last week I didn't put Bailey on there at all and as for Kershaw, my friend over at BA gave me a little more reason to like the guy than I already did, so he jumped up a few spots.

M2
07-19-2007, 01:33 PM
Two thoughts on Maybin, putting the ball on the carpet when you've got supreme wheels like that is a sound hitting approach. In other words, if he puts the ball in play on the IF grass and uses his speed, he's going to have a high BABIP.

The difference between a .120 and .103 LD% is, roughly, one liner per 50 ABs. That difference could be ephemeral dependent on the quality of the line drives. For instance, during Eric Davis' prime with the Reds, there was a constant chorus of people who insisted he had a radically high percentage of liners go for hits and that it would correct itself pretty much immediately.

It didn't happen because the numbers were directly tied to Davis' talents. ED had severe whip action in his swing and freakishly strong wrists and forearms. When he hit a line drive, it was a screamer. Unless he hit it right at you, you didn't stand much of a chance of catching it. In fact, I recall a good number of ED liners going right at IFs and eating them up. When his swing came together to produce a liner, it was savage.

I'm under the impression that Maybin's got more than a little bit of that in him, that he hits is well enough to get some hits sometimes even when he hits it where they are (or where they could get to in normal circumstances). So his five liners in 50 ABs might be as or more effective than someone else's 6 liners in 50 ABs. It might not too, but given the consistency in his overall numbers over the last two seasons I think you have to allow for this being emblematic of something he does rather than of some random effect.

dougdirt
07-19-2007, 01:53 PM
Two thoughts on Maybin, putting the ball on the carpet when you've got supreme wheels like that is a sound hitting approach. In other words, if he puts the ball in play on the IF grass and uses his speed, he's going to have a high BABIP.
Yes he is, but is there a reason at all to think that using the same approach that Ichiro has used his entire career (despite about half as many line drives) that his BABIP should be even close to that? I think this approach works for Maybin in the minors, but as he moves up the ladder this approach will not work for him until he starts hitting the ball harder more often (ie, more line drives).


The difference between a .120 and .103 LD% is, roughly, one liner per 50 ABs. That difference could be ephemeral dependent on the quality of the line drives. For instance, during Eric Davis' prime with the Reds, there was a constant chorus of people who insisted he had a radically high percentage of liners go for hits and that it would correct itself pretty much immediately.

I think you misunderstood the .120 thing I was referring to. BABIP, or suggested BABIP is generally calculated as line drive percentrage plus .120. So that is where Maybin's .103 LD% comes into play. That would suggest that his BABIP should sit around .103 + .120 = .223. Instead is over .400. Compare that with any other fast player in the minor leagues. I doubt you find many guys, or even any that have a suggested BABIP based on that formula that is over .180 points higher than its suggested to be. Lets take someone like Colby Rasmus for example, who has a .209 LD%. .209+.120= .329 BABIP. He is a centerfielder, so odds are he is not some slow footed guy and scouting reports would agree with that. What is his actual BABIP? .286. Justin Upton? .157 LD%. .157 + .120 = .277 BABIP. .330 actual BABIP. Upton is another guy with very good speed. Do you see what I am trying to say here? There is a serious issue at hand. If Maybin truly indeed is a singles hitter who uses tons of speed to beat out infield singles then there is no way the guy is the #3 prospect in baseball.



I'm under the impression that Maybin's got more than a little bit of that in him, that he hits is well enough to get some hits sometimes even when he hits it where they are (or where they could get to in normal circumstances). So his five liners in 50 ABs might be as or more effective than someone else's 6 liners in 50 ABs. It might not too, but given the consistency in his overall numbers over the last two seasons I think you have to allow for this being emblematic of something he does rather than of some random effect.
Well, I can't argue your numbers because they are wrong becuase I believe that you misunderstood what I was trying to illustrate. I think right now the guy is using his great speed and poor infielders to get on base a lot more often than he should. Simple as that. As he moves up, he won't do the same thing as infields and infielders improve unless he is getting more line drives or home runs.

I really don't want this to be looked at as I don't like Maybin. I think he is an excellent prospect. He however is just raw at the plate and needs to work on things in a very similar way that Drew Stubbs does (hitting line drives and not missing so much).

klw
07-19-2007, 02:54 PM
http://www.minorleaguenews.com/graphics/baseball/Graphics/2006/08/15/ones2watch/O2Wcammaybin.jpg = http://blogs.nydailynews.com/giants/archives/WillieMaysHayes.jpg ?

M2
07-19-2007, 03:59 PM
I think you misunderstood the .120 thing I was referring to. BABIP, or suggested BABIP is generally calculated as line drive percentrage plus .120. So that is where Maybin's .103 LD% comes into play. That would suggest that his BABIP should sit around .103 + .120 = .223. Instead is over .400. Compare that with any other fast player in the minor leagues. I doubt you find many guys, or even any that have a suggested BABIP based on that formula that is over .180 points higher than its suggested to be. Lets take someone like Colby Rasmus for example, who has a .209 LD%. .209+.120= .329 BABIP. He is a centerfielder, so odds are he is not some slow footed guy and scouting reports would agree with that. What is his actual BABIP? .286. Justin Upton? .157 LD%. .157 + .120 = .277 BABIP. .330 actual BABIP. Upton is another guy with very good speed. Do you see what I am trying to say here? There is a serious issue at hand. If Maybin truly indeed is a singles hitter who uses tons of speed to beat out infield singles then there is no way the guy is the #3 prospect in baseball.

Gotcha on the theoretical BABIP calculation, though that gets exactly to the point I made about ED. For five years people insisted he couldn't do that and he did. I remember getting into a prolonged argument with a guy heading into the 1989 season about this very sort of thing. He insisted Davis liners would stop finding holes so frequently and I insisted that at some point you have to recognize his norm is different from the one you're using.

You could very well be right about Maybin. I haven't seen much of him beyond a few highlights, but he was always billed as a supremely athletic talent and guys like that can have some freaky peripherals because they're playing the game a bit differently. For instance, not all types of fast are the same. Some guys can hit sprinting speed in two steps, others take 30 yards to warm up the engine. Maybin may have a freakish break.

He hasn't touched AA yet and for that reason alone I recommend suspicion. The world is filled with kids whose games didn't translate to higher levels of competition. In my view, it's impossible to be a top 10 prospect in A ball.

Benihana
07-19-2007, 04:09 PM
In my view, it's impossible to be a top 10 prospect in A ball.

Couldn't agree more.

dougdirt
07-19-2007, 04:33 PM
M2, I get your point about Davis. Thing is he was getting line drives all over the place. Maybin isn't. I just don't buy into the arguement that his speed is just so much better than everyone else in the minors that its going to continue to lead to the same success everywhere else he goes unless he changes his game.

SteelSD
07-20-2007, 01:05 AM
Steel, I disagree. If he made consistant solid contact he wouldnt put the ball on the ground 61% of the time and his line drive % would be higher than 10.3.

And if the guy wasn't making consistent hard contact, his ability to produce bases after the first (i.e. IsoP) wouldn't be nearly as high. You tout Drew Stubbs as a potential power hitter at an old age 22 despite a lower IsoP in Low A ball this season (.134), yet Maybin apparently can't hit the ball hard with a .163 IsoP at a young 20?

Sorry, but that doesn't play.

dougdirt
07-20-2007, 02:12 AM
And if the guy wasn't making consistent hard contact, his ability to produce bases after the first (i.e. IsoP) wouldn't be nearly as high. You tout Drew Stubbs as a potential power hitter at an old age 22 despite a lower IsoP in Low A ball this season (.134), yet Maybin apparently can't hit the ball hard with a .163 IsoP at a young 20?

Sorry, but that doesn't play.

I don't tout Drew Stubbs as a power hitter. He has raw power... just like Maybin. Both have problems translating it into solid power though in game situations.

Maybin has a fine IsoP, specifically for a centerfielder. My point is though that he has been extremely lucky to have a batting average over .230 to this point, in which case no one would case if he would be slugging .390 because he would still be hitting .230.