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bigredbunter
07-09-2007, 01:40 PM
Was browsing baseballreference.com the other day, and came across an interesting anomoly in Homer's stats. Basically they breakdown how well hitters are hitting off of him after successive at bats (i.e. 1st plate appearance, 2nd plate appearance and so on). The first time batters see Homer Bailey, they are hitting .348 and opsing .936--The second at - bat it drops to avg. .250 (ops .792). The 3rd time is an avg. of .190 and an ops of .608.
Simply put, this seems to me to be backwards. Doesn't it seem right that the batters would seem to improve the more they see Bailey and not the other way around? This could be irrelevant, but I thought I would bring it to light so someone could take a crack at explaining it.
Ideas/thoughts on this?

Times Facing Opp. in Game
I Split G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR BB IBB SO HBP SH SF ROE GDP SB CS Pk BA OBP SLG OPS BAbip tOPS+ Split
+-+------------+----+-----+-----+----+----+---+---+---+----+---+----+---+---+---+---+---+----+---+---+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+------------+
1st PA in G 6 55 46 8 16 4 0 1 8 0 7 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 .348 .436 .500 .936 .385 129 1st PA in G
2nd PA in G 6 48 36 7 9 3 0 1 7 1 5 2 0 3 0 3 0 0 0 .250 .375 .417 .792 .242 94 2nd PA in G
3rd+ PA in G 5 27 21 2 4 1 0 0 6 0 3 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 .190 .370 .238 .608 .222 50 3rd+ PA in G

JLB5
07-09-2007, 01:58 PM
Pretty simple, in the games he got lit up, it happend early. He had poor command in the zone on those nights and got hammered. In his other starts, he's given up very few hits period.

FlightRick
07-09-2007, 02:04 PM
With a sample size like Bailey's (six starts), I think all you're seeing is the simple fact that in games where he's ALLOWED to face a batter a third time are games where he's "on."

He's only faced 27 batters for a third time in the same game. As compared to 55 batters-faced in a first-time showdown, which logically includes not only his good starts but also his bad starts where he got shellacked so badly so early that he was pulled before getting a 2nd or 3rd time through the order.

I'm probably not explaining that clearly enough, but it's not necessarily that anomalous a stat, all things considered...

joshnky
07-09-2007, 02:15 PM
Times Facing Opp. in Game
I Split G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR BB IBB SO HBP SH SF ROE GDP SB CS Pk BA OBP SLG OPS BAbip tOPS+ Split
+-+------------+----+-----+-----+----+----+---+---+---+----+---+----+---+---+---+---+---+----+---+---+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+------------+
1st PA in G 6 55 46 8 16 4 0 1 8 0 7 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 .348 .436 .500 .936 .385 129 1st PA in G
2nd PA in G 6 48 36 7 9 3 0 1 7 1 5 2 0 3 0 3 0 0 0 .250 .375 .417 .792 .242 94 2nd PA in G
3rd+ PA in G 5 27 21 2 4 1 0 0 6 0 3 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 .190 .370 .238 .608 .222 50 3rd+ PA in G

Sorry, I was having a hard time reading it. This might help.

AmarilloRed
07-09-2007, 05:09 PM
Small Sample Size