PDA

View Full Version : Justin Germano



AmarilloRed
07-09-2007, 09:38 PM
I recently read that Justin Germano was a contender for Rookie of the Year. He was in our minor league system last year, and Krivsky traded him for one our relievers. I went ahead and looked at his stats on the San Diego Padres website, and here they are. He is 5-3 with a 3.90 era in 11 starts. He has pitched 64.2 innings in his 11 starts, with 13 walks and 33 strikeouts. I hope if Krivsky has learned anything in the last year, it is you don't trade AAA starters for 35-year old relievers who may be gone in a year or two. The Reds could have used Justin Germano in the back end of the rotation this year. He would have had a lot of competition to make the team, but he showed glimpses of this last year in the couple of starts he had for Cincinnati.

cincy09
07-09-2007, 09:43 PM
I recently read that Justin Germano was a contender for Rookie of the Year. He was in our minor league system last year, and Krivsky traded him for one our relievers. I went ahead and looked at his stats on the San Diego Padres website, and here they are. He is 5-3 with a 3.90 era in 11 starts. He has pitched 64.2 innings in his 11 starts, with 13 walks and 33 strikeouts. I hope if Krivsky has learned anything in the last year, it is you don't trade AAA starters for 35-year old relievers who may be gone in a year or two. The Reds could have used Justin Germano in the back end of the rotation this year. He would have had a lot of competition to make the team, but he showed glimpses of this last year in the couple of starts he had for Cincinnati.

Too bad we didn't have him when he was 35!:bang:

Degenerate39
07-09-2007, 09:45 PM
Wow he would've helped out a lot.

Harang
Arroyo
Lohse
Bailey
Germano

Trade Lohse for pen help and do this:
Harang
Arroyo
Bailey
Germano
Belisle

oneupper
07-09-2007, 09:52 PM
Germano is an AAAA pitcher who had a couple of good starts to start his MLB career and now is reverting to mean. I wouldn't hold my breath with ROY expectations.

The only thing bad about that trade is the guy we traded for.

AmarilloRed
07-09-2007, 10:02 PM
I suppose we could keep track of his progress. He is a 5th starter for the Padres, and doing well so far.

camisadelgolf
07-09-2007, 10:35 PM
Germano is an AAAA pitcher who had a couple of good starts to start his MLB career and now is reverting to mean. I wouldn't hold my breath with ROY expectations.

The only thing bad about that trade is the guy we traded for.

IMO, you summed it up perfectly. It wouldn't surprise me if his K/IP rate is the highest it will ever be.

AmarilloRed
07-10-2007, 01:01 AM
IMO, you summed it up perfectly. It wouldn't surprise me if his K/IP rate is the highest it will ever be.

What evidence do you have for that? He had a couple of good starts last year for the Reds, and he has now turned into a good #5 pitcher for the Padres. He has an era under 4, and a very good bb to k ratio. He has been mentioned in my local paper as a contender for Rookie of the Year. He may yet prove to be a marginal starting pitcher, but right now it looks like the Padres robbed us blind in that trade.

11larkin11
07-10-2007, 03:02 AM
First of all, we traded him to the Phillies for Cormier, who in turn released him and the Pads picked him up. And, he has given up 12 ER in his last two starts, leading many to believe he will regress to his norm. He had one decent start, not even a quality start, before the Reds traded him for the reliever with the best ERA in the majors.

camisadelgolf
07-10-2007, 05:37 AM
11larkin11 is right. The Padres weren't brilliant for acquiring him. In fact, the Padres were the first team to give up on him when they traded him to the Reds with Travis Chick for Joe Randa, of all people. Not only did the Reds and Phillies conclude that Germano's ceiling is as a #4 or #5 starter, the Padres did, too. At least the Reds got something for him. Granted, Cormier didn't work out, and feel free to chastise them for that, but in my opinion, the Reds deserve no flack just for parting with Germano.

joshnky
07-10-2007, 07:07 AM
I hope if Krivsky has learned anything in the last year, it is you don't trade AAA starters for 35-year old relievers who may be gone in a year or two.

Isn't that what we're hoping to get for Weathers????? AAAA players (which Germano was) get traded all the time for relievers, role players, or as throw-ins on a larger deal. Anyone think it helps Germano to be playing in the expansive Petco Park as opposed to GABP or Citizen's Bank?

REDblooded
07-10-2007, 08:03 AM
Germano has a decent ERA pitching in an extreme pitchers park. Put him in GABP, and he's on a bus back to Louisville.

REDblooded
07-10-2007, 08:05 AM
also, it never ceases to amaze me just how many fans think the Reds traded Germano to San Diego.

bucksfan2
07-10-2007, 09:08 AM
also, it never ceases to amaze me just how many fans think the Reds traded Germano to San Diego.

What also amazes me is that many fans blame Krivsky for not analyzing his talent correctly when fact of the matter is there were how many gm's who passed him up once philly released him? It annoyes me when ever a former reds player happens to have some form of success that many reds fans throw it back in the face of management.

Germano was never going to be a top of the line pitcher. He was passed up by over half the GM's in baseball. He WAS NOT a big loss for the reds.

AmarilloRed
07-10-2007, 02:27 PM
His ceiling may be as a 4th or 5th starter, but you need 4th and 5th starters in the rotation. Homer Bailey got bombed in a couple of his starts. Does that mean he won't be a good pitcher? I agree that the San Diego park may help him. I am willing to keep track on his progress,and I still think it was a mistake to trade him. It will be interesting to see if he has a better record than Lohse or Belisle. I am sure being on the San Diego team helps him somewhat,but I think he could have been a good starter for our team.

BRM
07-10-2007, 02:32 PM
Germano's ERA has rose nearly a run and half over his last two starts.

JLB5
07-10-2007, 02:47 PM
His ceiling may be as a 4th or 5th starter, but you need 4th and 5th starters in the rotation. Homer Bailey got bombed in a couple of his starts. Does that mean he won't be a good pitcher? I agree that the San Diego park may help him. I am willing to keep track on his progress,and I still think it was a mistake to trade him. It will be interesting to see if he has a better record than Lohse or Belisle. I am sure being on the San Diego team helps him somewhat,but I think he could have been a good starter for our team.

He's no better than Bobby Livingston. Bobby pitched a great game in Colorado, I don't think that means he'll be a solid MLB starter by any means. Germano put together a few good starts. Lots of guys are capable of putting together strings like that before they get around the league and "the book" gets out on them.

AmarilloRed
07-10-2007, 02:58 PM
Time will tell. I suggest we all keep track of his progress, and update this thread at the end of the year.

redsmetz
07-10-2007, 03:29 PM
First of all, we traded him to the Phillies for Cormier, who in turn released him and the Pads picked him up. And, he has given up 12 ER in his last two starts, leading many to believe he will regress to his norm. He had one decent start, not even a quality start, before the Reds traded him for the reliever with the best ERA in the majors.

I always think about the fact that we traded him to the Phillies, who cut him loose. I think it's highly doubtful that he would be a serious contender (or even a modest contender) for ROY.

BTW, why's this in the Minor League section - isn't he a big leaguer now?

AmarilloRed
07-10-2007, 06:52 PM
He was a minor leaguer in our system,and since he is not on the Reds I was not sure if I should post it on The Sun Deck.

HokieRed
07-10-2007, 10:10 PM
Germano has had as much success on the road as at home. Also, it's interesting to compare his ERA to two S.D. teammates: Maddux, 4.19, Wells, 4.31. Germano: 3.90. Ballpark considerations should be relatively irrelevant there. I assume Reds fans would like to have either Maddux or Wells in our rotation. Certainly the book is still out on Germano. In fact, we don't have enough data to know what he's likely to do. But he has won 5 games, pitched at least as well as anyone in our rotation except for Harang. Let's give him credit for what he's accomplished. It's hard to see how anyone could defend Krivsky's trading him for Cormier. In my view, it's one of several very bad decisions he has made and part of a disturbing pattern of trading major league quality talent for no return: Kearns, Lopez, Harris, C.Ross, Germano, Hancock. By next year we may be adding Denorfia to that list. That's a lot of major league value for any club to lose without any major league return.

PuffyPig
07-10-2007, 10:45 PM
In my view, it's one of several very bad decisions he has made and part of a disturbing pattern of trading major league quality talent for no return: Kearns, Lopez, Harris, C.Ross, Germano, Hancock. By next year we may be adding Denorfia to that list. That's a lot of major league value for any club to lose without any major league return.

There's realy no one on the list I'm sorry we do't have. Kearns and Lopez are overpaid and not particularly productive.

We laso got everyone of thoses players, save Kearns, in trades giving up little to get them in the first place.

I'd take Billy Bray over any one of those players today.

durl
07-11-2007, 09:04 AM
At the time of the trade of Germano to Philadelphia, Cormier was a good pickup on paper. During 2006 in Philly, his ERA was 1.59 in 43 appearances. He had allowed only 2 HR in 34 innings. His K/BB was not great (13/13) but he got batters out and kept the other team from scoring.

Meanwhile, Germano's ERA was 5.40 and he had given up one HR in 6 innings. Perhaps that's not a large enough sample size, but during his first tenure in San Diego his ERA was 8.86 after 21 innings and 5 starts. (Those numbers would have many calling for him to be sent to Louisville or released outright.)

I believe most of us would have traded for Cormier in 2006 as well given those numbers.

Orenda
07-11-2007, 09:19 AM
At the time of the trade of Germano to Philadelphia, Cormier was a good pickup on paper. During 2006 in Philly, his ERA was 1.59 in 43 appearances. He had allowed only 2 HR in 34 innings. His K/BB was not great (13/13) but he got batters out and kept the other team from scoring.

Meanwhile, Germano's ERA was 5.40 and he had given up one HR in 6 innings. Perhaps that's not a large enough sample size, but during his first tenure in San Diego his ERA was 8.86 after 21 innings and 5 starts. (Those numbers would have many calling for him to be sent to Louisville or released outright.)

I believe most of us would have traded for Cormier in 2006 as well given those numbers.

If you take Germano's 8.86 era in 21 innings as an argument then you should throw in Cormier's career era around 4. The trade was an attempt to bolster the bullpen in a playoff race which didn't work. I know many people remember the abuse the lizard took by Narron in Philly where he finished one game and started the next, but did u know Cormier was still available in the pen in the game he finished? I believe that was shortly after the trade, and thats where the seeds of pessimism started for me concerning Rheal and his acquisitition. Germano would be a nice option to have around on the cheap but it was an understandable move by K.

Doro
07-11-2007, 03:31 PM
if your not willing to trade AAA starters for major league relievers then what are you willing to trade? Its not like Germano is some cant miss pitcher. Like others have said he was given chances before. Cormier was having a great season and is about the best kind of reliever your going to get through a trade unless you give more than they are worth. Its easy to second guess after the fact. At the time of the trade I too would have liked to see Germano stay in the Reds organization but you have to remember they were desperate for pen help and Cormier was cheap for the year he was having.

HokieRed
07-11-2007, 05:48 PM
It's good not to make trades from desperation. They'll almost certainly be bad. Pointing out Krivsky's bad trades is not second guessing. It's making clear what he cannot continue to do if the organization is to stay even mildly competitive--that is, consistently give away major league value for no return. He's done that six times so far--Kearns, Lopez, Harris, Hancock, C.Ross, Germano. It looks like he may have done it again in Denorfia for McBeth, and he has quite possibly done it in last year's draft, where he spent an 8th pick in the first round (not just a first-round pick, the 8th pick overall) on a guy whose major league future looks very very remote at the moment. If he does as badly in the next round of trades he's going to make, he's gone.

AmarilloRed
07-11-2007, 06:19 PM
At the time Germano for Cormier looked like a good trade that might give the Reds a good reliever who might make a difference to get them to the postseason. Things did not work out the way the Reds would have liked, and they lost a potential prospect for a pitcher who wasn't here long. Things sometimes happen that way in trades, and we will see if Krivsky can do better when he deals with the trade deadline at the end of the month.

HokieRed
07-11-2007, 08:13 PM
How many times is Krivsky going to be allowed to make similar mistakes? That's the only question that matters regarding his management.

TC81190
07-11-2007, 10:59 PM
It's good not to make trades from desperation. They'll almost certainly be bad. Pointing out Krivsky's bad trades is not second guessing. It's making clear what he cannot continue to do if the organization is to stay even mildly competitive--that is, consistently give away major league value for no return. He's done that six times so far--Kearns, Lopez, Harris, Hancock, C.Ross, Germano. It looks like he may have done it again in Denorfia for McBeth, and he has quite possibly done it in last year's draft, where he spent an 8th pick in the first round (not just a first-round pick, the 8th pick overall) on a guy whose major league future looks very very remote at the moment. If he does as badly in the next round of trades he's going to make, he's gone.


:laugh:


Cody Ross.

durl
07-12-2007, 12:30 AM
So now we can add Germano to the list:

If the Reds only kept Lopez (.242 BA, 4 HR), Kearns (.250 BA, 5HR), and Germano, they'd be the best team in the NL.

Anyway, I don't wish anything bad for Germano but he's definitely trending down lately. He's only given up 7 HR all year but 4 of them have been in his last 3 starts. His ERA in May was 1.08; in June it was 4.03; after 2 starts in July it's 10.13. His K/BB ratio is trending down as well: May - almost 5:1. June - 3:1. July - 1:1.

Still, he could turn out to be a great pitcher. I just believe it's a bit early to deem him a mistake trade by Krivsky.

AmarilloRed
07-12-2007, 01:38 AM
I don't think the mistake was necessarily in trading him, but trading him for a pitcher who was bad enough to be released by the team a year later. It may have loked like a good trade at the time for Krivsky, but I am sure he could have gotten a better player in return than Rheal Cormier. I am sure Germano will go through a bad steak like he is now, but I think we should have picked him up again after the Phillies released him

Orenda
07-12-2007, 08:40 AM
I don't think the mistake was necessarily in trading him, but trading him for a pitcher who was bad enough to be released by the team a year later. It may have loked like a good trade at the time for Krivsky, but I am sure he could have gotten a better player in return than Rheal Cormier. I am sure Germano will go through a bad steak like he is now, but I think we should have picked him up again after the Phillies released him

I'm starting to wonder about his talent evaluation skills. To his credit he has Brandon Phillips, but that wasn't a risky move. Also people never remember Jeff Stevens, the ptbnl for Phillips, who is turning into a good relief prospect for Cleveland. He also brought in Harris and Cody Ross then gives them away. So far he's missed on Cormier, Majewski, Harris, Germano, and Saarloos. Also time will tell on Bray, Stanton, and the Arroyo extension. I should probably credit him D. Ross as well. Hatteberg was available and Krivsky picked him up and its worked for both parties (much like ol' Jimbo and Dimitri Young) which was another small low risk transaction. I would throw in Stubbs name, but they have some other promising picks.

HokieRed
07-12-2007, 09:11 AM
Maybe doesn't belong on a Germano thread, but previous posters have suggested Krivsky's never given away anything we could use. So, in addition to Germano, currently outpitching David Wells and Greg Maddux, we should mention that Josh Hancock did make 70 appearances for the World-Champion Cardinals last year and would easily have been our second-best reliever, that Brendan Harris's line is now .310/.365/.463/.828, and also that Cody Ross put up .302/.383/.642/1.025, with 4 homers and 14 RBI's in his 53 AB this season before his injury. Actually that's the kind of line one looks for in the run-producer types that the Reds always seem to be looking for.

nate
07-12-2007, 10:02 AM
Maybe doesn't belong on a Germano thread, but previous posters have suggested Krivsky's never given away anything we could use. So, in addition to Germano, currently outpitching David Wells and Greg Maddux

Lots of guys are outpitching David Wells and Greg Maddux this year. For example, Kyle Lohse. Looks like the Padres caught the lightning that the Phillies dumped out of the bottle.


, we should mention that Josh Hancock did make 70 appearances for the World-Champion Cardinals last year and would easily have been our second-best reliever,

How is this Krivsky's fault?


Josh Hancock
January 12, 2006: Released (http://www.baseball-reference.com/h/hancojo01.shtml) by the Cincinnati Reds.


Reds hire (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2323116) Krivsky as new general manager
February 8, 2006


that Brendan Harris's line is now .310/.365/.463/.828,

That one, I don't understand. Probably thinking about getting a "name" SS to fill that position.


and also that Cody Ross put up .302/.383/.642/1.025, with 4 homers and 14 RBI's in his 53 AB this season before his injury. Actually that's the kind of line one looks for in the run-producer types that the Reds always seem to be looking for.

But .227/.293/.431/.724 in 102 games in 2006. Who is the real Cody Ross? I think he's closer to the guy whose career stats are 232/.300/.445/.745. Besides, who would he play over?

DTCromer
07-12-2007, 11:39 AM
Lots of guys are outpitching David Wells and Greg Maddux this year. For example, Kyle Lohse. Looks like the Padres caught the lightning that the Phillies dumped out of the bottle.



How is this Krivsky's fault?







That one, I don't understand. Probably thinking about getting a "name" SS to fill that position.



But .227/.293/.431/.724 in 102 games in 2006. Who is the real Cody Ross? I think he's closer to the guy whose career stats are 232/.300/.445/.745. Besides, who would he play over?


Come on Nate. . .quit being so reasonable.

HokieRed
07-12-2007, 03:41 PM
What's reasonable? My memory's not good enough for me to be absolutely sure of this but I do think Hancock's release was simply to get him off the 40 man, then he was re-invited to spring training as a non-roster invitee and Narron got pissed off at him early in the pitcher-catchers period--when K was GM.
Second, what does the fact Kyle Lohse is outpitching Maddux and Wells have to do with the fact Germano is also? How do you get from our having Kyle Lohse to its being ok to trade Germano for nothing? I cited Maddux and Wells because all the Krivsky adorers always say Germano's success is simply a function of the ballpark at S.D. So Maddux and Wells provide reasonable comparisons.
As to Cody Ross, the book is completely out. Even if you take his .745 line and correct it for GABP, you'd get something we could use. And even if you think we can't use him, that's no justification for getting next to nothing in return for him.

durl
07-12-2007, 04:27 PM
I stated it earlier, but Germano's good start this year is fading a bit and his numbers are reverting back to what they were when the Reds traded him. It could just be a slump but he's been trending downward pretty hard since the end of May.

Lohse's career ERA when the Reds acquired him (5.18) was better than Germano's when the Reds let him go (7.13 career ERA). Germano had less time in the majors, true, but I wonder if we need to wait at least until the end of the season before we deem Germano to be a gem that got away.

jimbo
07-12-2007, 04:45 PM
So, in addition to Germano, currently outpitching David Wells and Greg Maddux.....

I beg to differ. Have you checked some of Germano's most recent starts? His most recent having given up 7 earned runs in 4 innings. His overall numbers are still nice looking because of what he did in his first month or so after being called up. His ERA since though has been on a consistant rise and he is beginning to show why he is mediocre at best. There is no way in he!! I'd take Germano over Maddux or Wells, even at this point of their careers.

Krivsky shouldn't be judged by a small number of starts from Germano, besides he isn't the only one who has passed him up. There are reasons why he has never been considered more than a back of the rotation start, at best.

nate
07-12-2007, 05:28 PM
What's reasonable? My memory's not good enough for me to be absolutely sure of this but I do think Hancock's release was simply to get him off the 40 man, then he was re-invited to spring training as a non-roster invitee and Narron got pissed off at him early in the pitcher-catchers period--when K was GM.

He signed with St. Louis about 3 weeks or so after his release. I remember something like what you said but am a little vague on what exactly happened. I do remember that it was Jerry who talked about the move more than Wayne so I think it was Jerry's call rather than Wayne's.


Second, what does the fact Kyle Lohse is outpitching Maddux and Wells have to do with the fact Germano is also? How do you get from our having Kyle Lohse to its being ok to trade Germano for nothing? I cited Maddux and Wells because all the Krivsky adorers always say Germano's success is simply a function of the ballpark at S.D. So Maddux and Wells provide reasonable comparisons.

I'm not sure pointing out that the Reds weren't the only team that didn't think Germano was worth keeping makes one a "Krivsky Adorer".

We traded Germano for Frenchy because we were in the thick of a playoff berth. Frenchy looked to be an "OK" gamble for Germano who didn't really look to be a much better option than what we had at the time. Germano had a single, non-descript start with the Reds and then was gone to Philly.

That 3.90 ERA is sexy but when viewed without beer goggles, it renders thusly:

July: 10.13
June: 4.03
May: 1.08

Besides, if Kyle Lohse outpitches Maddux and Wells in GABP then he's _GOT TO_ be better than Germano, right?

(that was a joke)


As to Cody Ross, the book is completely out. Even if you take his .745 line and correct it for GABP, you'd get something we could use. And even if you think we can't use him, that's no justification for getting next to nothing in return for him.

As I recall, the deal was made so he could go somewhere and play every day. There was nowhere for him to play on the Reds with Dunn / Griffey / Kearns and Freel blocking the way. I really don't lose any sleep over that move.

I think my main point was that you can't look at these moves purely in hindsight.

HokieRed
07-12-2007, 09:35 PM
Of course I don't think Germano is a better pitcher than Wells or Maddux. The point is a whole lot of people on this board constantly run down Germano because he's pitching in SD. My point is simply that Wells and Maddux are also pitching in SD, so if you want something like meaningful comps, that's a way to do it.
As to comparing Kyle Lohse to Germano, I just don't see why this is relevant. Having Kyle Lohse is one thing, having Germano is another. It's perfectly possible to have both. It's also perfectly possible to hold on to some players that you might not think fit your immediate plans--C.Ross, Harris--and let them acquire value, after which you can trade them for something. Whatever Germano, Harris, and C.Ross turn out to be, the fact is Krivsky got exactly nothing for them--for three guys good enough to be on the major league rosters of teams that are at least as good as the Reds.

AmarilloRed
07-13-2007, 01:51 AM
I suppose this is the risk you take when you trade AAA prospects for older, marginal players.

nate
07-13-2007, 07:02 AM
Of course I don't think Germano is a better pitcher than Wells or Maddux. The point is a whole lot of people on this board constantly run down Germano because he's pitching in SD. My point is simply that Wells and Maddux are also pitching in SD, so if you want something like meaningful comps, that's a way to do it.
As to comparing Kyle Lohse to Germano, I just don't see why this is relevant. Having Kyle Lohse is one thing, having Germano is another. It's perfectly possible to have both. It's also perfectly possible to hold on to some players that you might not think fit your immediate plans--C.Ross, Harris--and let them acquire value, after which you can trade them for something. Whatever Germano, Harris, and C.Ross turn out to be, the fact is Krivsky got exactly nothing for them--for three guys good enough to be on the major league rosters of teams that are at least as good as the Reds.

Here are the points I was trying to make:

1. I felt you only looked at these moves in hindsight. At the time, these guys were moved because the Reds had other needs. Whether that's trading for another player or no position to play.

2. Maybe Wayne did get the best deal he could for these players. We don't know who he contacted, what was offered, etc. and we never will. You say we got nothing, well, maybe that was the best deal on the table.

It seems to me that your entire argument is that because these players have pretty looking numbers now, Wayne should've gotten more from them when their numbers weren't so good. I don't agree with that.

Of the three, I think Harris would've been worth hanging on to, though.

Orenda
07-13-2007, 09:38 AM
Of course I don't think Germano is a better pitcher than Wells or Maddux. The point is a whole lot of people on this board constantly run down Germano because he's pitching in SD. My point is simply that Wells and Maddux are also pitching in SD, so if you want something like meaningful comps, that's a way to do it.
As to comparing Kyle Lohse to Germano, I just don't see why this is relevant. Having Kyle Lohse is one thing, having Germano is another. It's perfectly possible to have both. It's also perfectly possible to hold on to some players that you might not think fit your immediate plans--C.Ross, Harris--and let them acquire value, after which you can trade them for something. Whatever Germano, Harris, and C.Ross turn out to be, the fact is Krivsky got exactly nothing for them--for three guys good enough to be on the major league rosters of teams that are at least as good as the Reds.

With the lack of depth in the organization's farm system guys like Germano, Harris, and C. Ross would help tremendously. Germano I can't throw into that argument because he was dealt for what Krivsky thought would be a useful part (same for J. Moran for Conine). So what was good for Harris and Ross was not good for the Reds. Yes they might not have been everyday players but they could help the big club for cheap, and they would have also increased [B]competition[B] in the minor league system. Didn't Dustin Moseley make comments about how much more competitive it was once he got to the Angels?

JLB5
07-13-2007, 11:52 AM
The bottom line is that this stuff happens with every organization. Shuffling guys on and off the 40 man roster often leads to marginal prospects like Germano, Harris, and Ross moving on to other organizations while the Reds bring in others like Livingston, Burton, McBeth, and Pedro Lopez. Occassionally, one of these marginal players becomes as star like Harang who was viewed as expendable by the A's, but more times than not they have brief and limited success. You can't keep 50 players on the 40 man roster, so occassionally you have to let someone go. Harris is a good example as he wasn't going to play over Phillips, A Gon, or Edwin and they had Castro, Freel, and Keppinger on the 40. If the guy hits .330 for the next two years, then I'll call it a dumb move. However, nothing in his minor league numbers indicates he'll keep up his current pace.

Orenda
07-13-2007, 12:26 PM
Why trade for Keppinger when you had Harris? Harris was more valuable simply because he could play 3b, 2b, and ss. Harang is not a good example because he was dealt for Guillen, it was simply the A's dealing depth. I think any young 6'7 pitcher with major league experience is not likely to be acquired and dumped in a calendar year. Depth is not achieved by trading fringe players with no better option to replace them. Also, Livingston and Lopez were waiver claims and Burton was an unprotected Rule V guy. Both Harris and Ross were acquired, meaning that we gave up something for them and then shipped them out for nothing. Yes this is the way of baseball sometimes, but when you make a habit of making these types of moves you can thin your system. Did they recieve cash for Harris?

Screwball
07-13-2007, 02:50 PM
I'm starting to wonder about his talent evaluation skills. To his credit he has Brandon Phillips, but that wasn't a risky move. Also people never remember Jeff Stevens, the ptbnl for Phillips, who is turning into a good relief prospect for Cleveland. He also brought in Harris and Cody Ross then gives them away. So far he's missed on Cormier, Majewski, Harris, Germano, and Saarloos. Also time will tell on Bray, Stanton, and the Arroyo extension. I should probably credit him D. Ross as well. Hatteberg was available and Krivsky picked him up and its worked for both parties (much like ol' Jimbo and Dimitri Young) which was another small low risk transaction. I would throw in Stubbs name, but they have some other promising picks.

You somehow left acquiring Josh Hamilton off the list. Going out and getting a player of that talent for nothing is a phenomenal job on Krivsky's part.

Also, why some fans want to somehow discredit some of Wayne's moves for being low-risk because he didn't have to give up much is beyond me. Would giving up Joey Votto for Brandon Phillips make it a better move? It'd sure be a heck of a lot riskier, so therefore Wayne would then get more accolades, right? IMO, if anything, Krivsky should be given more credit for acquiring talents like Phillips, Hamilton, Hatteberg, etc. while keeping the farm system intact - especially the top prospects.

Redsnake
07-13-2007, 03:02 PM
You somehow left acquiring Josh Hamilton off the list. Going out and getting a player of that talent for nothing is a phenomenal job on Krivsky's part.

Also, why some fans want to somehow discredit some of Wayne's moves for being low-risk because he didn't have to give up much is beyond me. Would giving up Joey Votto for Brandon Phillips make it a better move? It'd sure be a heck of a lot riskier, so therefore Wayne would then get more accolades, right? IMO, if anything, Krivsky should be given more credit for acquiring talents like Phillips, Hamilton, Hatteberg, etc. while keeping the farm system intact - especially the top prospects.

Screwball that might be the best post I've read all day. I agree with you 100%.

durl
07-13-2007, 03:11 PM
You somehow left acquiring Josh Hamilton off the list. Going out and getting a player of that talent for nothing is a phenomenal job on Krivsky's part.

Also, why some fans want to somehow discredit some of Wayne's moves for being low-risk because he didn't have to give up much is beyond me. Would giving up Joey Votto for Brandon Phillips make it a better move? It'd sure be a heck of a lot riskier, so therefore Wayne would then get more accolades, right? IMO, if anything, Krivsky should be given more credit for acquiring talents like Phillips, Hamilton, Hatteberg, etc. while keeping the farm system intact - especially the top prospects.

Excellent point.

Orenda
07-13-2007, 10:27 PM
You somehow left acquiring Josh Hamilton off the list. Going out and getting a player of that talent for nothing is a phenomenal job on Krivsky's part.

Also, why some fans want to somehow discredit some of Wayne's moves for being low-risk because he didn't have to give up much is beyond me. Would giving up Joey Votto for Brandon Phillips make it a better move? It'd sure be a heck of a lot riskier, so therefore Wayne would then get more accolades, right? IMO, if anything, Krivsky should be given more credit for acquiring talents like Phillips, Hamilton, Hatteberg, etc. while keeping the farm system intact - especially the top prospects.

He's given plenty of credit. Hamilton, Phillips, and Hatteberg were all good pickups. but:

Hamilton/Burton: Nobody ever questioned the guys talent. The question was can he perform? And can he stay healthy/clean? If he didn't the reds would have been able to sell him back. He has done both really well, but if he hadn't it was a $50,000 straight and flush draw. It was a low risk high reward move. You dont understand that logic? And yes this is a good move by Krivsky.

Hatteberg: Was a proven player who was competent with the stick. He's not a power hitting first-basemen and was drawing zero interest at the time Krivsky grabbed the overlooked Hatteberg for cheap. Another good move, but another player he could get rid of fairly easily if things didn't work out. Also, remember this is when Dunn was scheduled to play the only position he should be allowed to play before Hatteberg was picked up. You can disagree with me if you like, but thats what I think.

Phillips: A great player well worth what the reds gave up. This is hard for me to argue, but at the time he was acquired he had been DFA'd by the Indians. They gave up on him and were not going to get him back. The player the reds gave up is interesting, so could they have picked him off waivers? Also, Phillips went on a hot streak as soon as he got here. That set him up for the year. And we also had Freel and Womack as well as the three catchers, if it wasnt for that hot streak would the reds still have released Womack. Now it is obvious Krivsky made the right choice. And no, trading Votto for a player DFA'd would be stupid.

I don't want to say that because these moves were not more risky that they werent good moves. My point is if they hadn't panned out the players could have been discarded with nobody really faulting Krivsky for trying. Its the calm down dont just look at his good moves and defend some flaws because of them argument.

AmarilloRed
07-14-2007, 02:00 AM
Somehow my thread has been hijacked. I simply meant to start a thread about how I wish Germano was still a part of our team; and it turns into a thread about Wayne Krivsky. I just hope from this point on all of us can confine or remarks to Justin Germano, and the trade to the Philadelphia Phillies. Wayne Krivsky is only peripheral to this Germano thread

Orenda
07-14-2007, 10:08 AM
Yes, but any mention of Justin Germano and his success is going to inevitably lead to Wayne Krivsky. It was almost implied when the thread simply said Justin Germano, look what he is doing....but your right....my bad.

nate
07-14-2007, 10:26 AM
Somehow my thread has been hijacked. I simply meant to start a thread about how I wish Germano was still a part of our team; and it turns into a thread about Wayne Krivsky. I just hope from this point on all of us can confine or remarks to Justin Germano, and the trade to the Philadelphia Phillies. Wayne Krivsky is only peripheral to this Germano thread

OK.

The Reds traded Germano to the Phillies so as to help an incredibly poor bullpen for a playoff run. That didn't end up working out because the Reds were playing above their heads, Cormier didn't end up helping and the offense went to sleep for the final two months of the season.

Germano is now pitching for San Diego after being released by the Phillies (having never appeared in a single Major league game). He has a nice-looking ERA on the season which looks rather ugly broken down by month:

July: 10.13
June: 4.03
May: 1.08

He is a decent groundball pitcher but he doesn't strike a lot of guys out. Currently, he's more or less league average. That would be nice to have if the season existed in a vacuum. It doesn't though. Go back to the beginning where I said:


The Reds traded Germano to the Phillies so as to help an incredibly poor bullpen for a playoff run.

The worst thing the Reds did last year was overperform and hang around long enough to try and make it into the postseason. Because of that, they tried to make several moves as buyers in a seller's market.

Wishing we still had Germano is fine. He may very well have been league average for us as he has been in his second stint with San Diego. Wishing we never had Cormier is fine because he was done and in retrospect, this looks like a bad move. However, the move was made in the situation we were in: chasing a playoff spot with a crappy bullpen and looking for help with whatever the market would bear.

Discuss!

Orenda
07-14-2007, 11:14 AM
.

AmarilloRed
07-14-2007, 04:08 PM
I am sorry if I was a little harsh. I do believe it is fair to ask whether the best Krivsky could have gotten was Cormier. I am sure there were better pitchers on the Phillies staff in their bullpen we could have traded Germano for. I will admit Germano has not done as well recently, although that July era of 10.13 is based on 2 starts in the month. I believe he will have a 4.00 era this year, and he might have helped our rotation more than Lohse and Belisle this year. I agree the Reds were overperforming last year, and they are underperforming now. If Germano were still on the team he might be in AAA, or he might have made the rotation in spring training. I will keep track of how he does this year, and post on the subject periodically. It looked like a good trade at the time, but I believe it was a desperate move made to try and fix the bullpen last year. I do hope Wayne is more cautious this year when he makes his trading deadline deals.

T7-niner
07-14-2007, 04:12 PM
Here's a question for ya, AmarilloRed: How well do you think that Germano would pitch in GABP?

I get the impression you think he'd be a good fit in our rotation.

I don't think he would be...GABP exposes middle of the road pitchers for what they are, and I really don't think that Germano would fair any better than our already crappy rotation, excluding Harang.

IMO he'd be more of what we have....and we have enough of that already.

nate
07-14-2007, 04:43 PM
I am sorry if I was a little harsh.

I don't think you were harsh, I was just answering your question directly.


I do believe it is fair to ask whether the best Krivsky could have gotten was Cormier. I am sure there were better pitchers on the Phillies staff in their bullpen we could have traded Germano for.

That's a fair question but all we can do is speculate. So who were those better pitchers? Remember, the Phillies really didn't seem to have a plan to use Germano on the big league club.


I will admit Germano has not done as well recently, although that July era of 10.13 is based on 2 starts in the month. I believe he will have a 4.00 era this year, and he might have helped our rotation more than Lohse and Belisle this year. I agree the Reds were overperforming last year, and they are underperforming now. If Germano were still on the team he might be in AAA, or he might have made the rotation in spring training. I will keep track of how he does this year, and post on the subject periodically. It looked like a good trade at the time, but I believe it was a desperate move made to try and fix the bullpen last year. I do hope Wayne is more cautious this year when he makes his trading deadline deals.

All moves that one makes when you need something valuable and you have a threadbare budget / bartering chips seem desperate at worst and risky at best.

nate
07-14-2007, 04:51 PM
Here's a question for ya, AmarilloRed: How well do you think that Germano would pitch in GABP?

I get the impression you think he'd be a good fit in our rotation.

I don't think he would be...GABP exposes middle of the road pitchers for what they are, and I really don't think that Germano would fair any better than our already crappy rotation, excluding Harang.

IMO he'd be more of what we have....and we have enough of that already.

FWIW, Germano's ERA+ is 104 and Lohse's 103. ERA+ is park adjusted.

AmarilloRed
07-15-2007, 01:27 AM
Here's a question for ya, AmarilloRed: How well do you think that Germano would pitch in GABP?

I get the impression you think he'd be a good fit in our rotation.

I don't think he would be...GABP exposes middle of the road pitchers for what they are, and I really don't think that Germano would fair any better than our already crappy rotation, excluding Harang.

IMO he'd be more of what we have....and we have enough of that already.

You are assuming he would be a middle of the road pitcher. I don't make that assumption. It is true he has benefited from cavernous San Diego Stadium, but he has also played well on the road. I think he would be more consistant than Belisle and Lohse. I do believe he would be a good 4 or 5 starter, and we will all find out the rest of this year how good a pitcher he will be.

HokieRed
07-15-2007, 07:48 PM
Germano went 6.1 scoreless today. Enough said. Krivsky should have been fired six weeks ago.

Screwball
07-15-2007, 10:40 PM
Germano went 6.1 scoreless today. Enough said. Krivsky should have been fired six weeks ago.

Are you basing that on this transaction? If so, Walt Jocketty should be fired for trading away Dan Haren and Kiko Calero (and perhaps another player I think) for Mark Mulder (which has turned out to be VERY lopsided).

Every GM is going to make a blunder. I really hope you don't actually think Kriv should be fired based on this alone, which is what it sounded like...

kaldaniels
07-15-2007, 11:08 PM
This thread seems to be festering a little too long in here...

I have a feeling every 5 days we'll be hearing either

"Germano pitched well....Krivsky's an idiot"

or

"See, I told you he'd revert back to his norms"

:bang:

AmarilloRed
07-16-2007, 12:50 AM
This thread seems to be festering a little too long in here...

I have a feeling every 5 days we'll be hearing either

"Germano pitched well....Krivsky's an idiot"

or

"See, I told you he'd revert back to his norms"

:bang:

It's because Cormier is gone from the team. It was a trade that seemed good at the time. Cormier had good stats at the time of the trade, and totally tanked after we received him in the trade. I believe Krivsky signed him to a 2-year contract, and we will be paying the rest of that this year. Germano hadn't been overwhelming at the time of the trade, but has really improved this year. Wayne Krivsky has made a lot of bad moves in acquring bullpen help, and the only good one that worked out (and this is debatable) was getting Eddie Guardado. Eddie worked great as a closing pitcher last year before he got hurt, but I still wish we had the starting pitcher we traded him for. This is how I feel about Germano. I wish Krivsky could have done better in that trade, and I hope he'll fully evaluate our minor league players before he trades someone from our minor league system again.

durl
07-16-2007, 09:06 AM
Has anyone found a link about the Padres GM's desire to trade for another starter? Yahoo Sports is showing that in their Fantasy Baseball news. The implication is that Germano's days in the rotation are numbered.

redsupport
07-16-2007, 09:13 AM
yeah he has realy stunk almost as good as belisle, or lohse

durl
07-26-2007, 11:16 AM
Germano continues to struggle. From Wednesday night (7/25):

5 IP, 6 ER, 2 HR, 1 BB, 1 K.

After starting 5-0, he's 1-5 over his last 7 starts. His ERA is up to 4.20. I wonder if he might be done in San Diego.

AmarilloRed
07-26-2007, 12:48 PM
You said Belisle: Did you mean to say Germano? I don't think Belisle is pitching for the Padres.:oops:

jimbo
07-26-2007, 12:55 PM
Belisle continues to struggle. From Wednesday night (7/25):

5 IP, 6 ER, 2 HR, 1 BB, 1 K.

After starting 5-0, he's 1-5 over his last 7 starts. His ERA is up to 4.20. I wonder if he might be done in San Diego.

Those are Germano's numbers.

He is finally coming back to Earth and showing exactly why multiple teams have traded him away. His stuff is mediocre and he will never be more than a long-reliever or back of the rotation starter, at best.

durl
07-26-2007, 02:29 PM
Corrected. My bad....I did mean Germano.

TC81190
07-26-2007, 04:28 PM
B-R park adjusts Justin Germano in GABP to...

78.1 IP 84 H 39 K 10 HR 5.17 ERA

Muggerd
07-26-2007, 07:32 PM
Heres an idea, the phillies released Germano so its not just us that thought he wasnt going to ever be much. Why must you guys live in the past and still talk about this kid.