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View Full Version : What can we reasonably expect out of Jeff Keppinger the rest of the year?



AmarilloRed
07-10-2007, 02:19 AM
With Castro out for the year, Jeff Keppinger will have the opportunity to show what he can do on the big club. He led AAA in hitting, but a number of people have done that and failed to produce once they got to Cincinnati. He will be a reserve infielder, so I don't see him getting more than 100-200 abs. Given that, what can we reasonably expect out of Jeff Keppinger the rest of the year.

uoduck1017
07-10-2007, 02:23 AM
Hopefully just doing what he is asked by Mack. Whether it be put the ball in play as a pinch-hitter late in the game, or playing solid defense. He will probably get some spot starts and hopefully he can take advantage of the opportunity.

bounty37h
07-10-2007, 12:02 PM
I havent seen yet the release that Castro is out for the year, last I read, I htought they would re-evaluate and go from there. Is he def done for the year?

nate
07-10-2007, 12:17 PM
I havent seen yet the release that Castro is out for the year, last I read, I htought they would re-evaluate and go from there. Is he def done for the year?

BP reported it here (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6431).

boognish
07-10-2007, 12:17 PM
Keppinger has a nice shot to prove he can handle a utility role...he will have to show he can play a shortstop passibly, and exhibit some patience. His lack of power won't be too much of a detriment in a utility infield role if he can demonstrate enough of a walk rate so as to not have an OBP as BA-dependent as one would assume it will be.

Krivsky picked him up, seemingly, due to the fact that he K's less than he walks (and seems to be able to get the bat on the ball quite a bit), but he probably won't be hitting .310 up here, so the walk rate and defense must be there for him to stick AND be useful. Then again, this team has employed Juan Castro as its primary infield substitute this season, so it is nearly impossible to project Keppinger not being an upgrade.

AmarilloRed
07-22-2007, 05:08 PM
I thought I would update this thread with the game he had today. Keppinger started at third base, and went 4 for 5 with a homer and a double to raise his average to .346. Small sample size, but he could replace Encarcion at third if this keeps up. I can see Edwin being traded for the first time. Up to now, there was no one in the farm system to take his place . These are his stats in limited playing time- 11 games, 26 AB, 6 runs, 9 hits, 3 doubles, no triples, 1 home run, 5 rbi, 15 total bases, 3 walks, 1 strikeout, and no stolen bases. I am not sure what his OBP and Slugging PCT. is. Some other stat geek will need to figure that one out. At this point, he has the utility role locked up and is pushing hard to be the starter at third base.

HBP
07-22-2007, 06:41 PM
I thought I would update this thread with the game he had today. Keppinger started at third base, and went 4 for 5 with a homer and a double to raise his average to .346. Small sample size, but he could replace Encarcion at third if this keeps up. I can see Edwin being traded for the first time. Up to now, there was no one in the farm system to take his place . These are his stats in limited playing time- 11 games, 26 AB, 6 runs, 9 hits, 3 doubles, no triples, 1 home run, 5 rbi, 15 total bases, 3 walks, 1 strikeout, and no stolen bases. I am not sure what his OBP and Slugging PCT. is. Some other stat geek will need to figure that one out. At this point, he has the utility role locked up and is pushing hard to be the starter at third base.

Indeed a great game for Kepp today. His OPS is .991 right now which he won't be able to keep pace with. To me, he's somewhat of a infield version of Denorfia. Nothing wrong with that, but he shouldn't take regular AB's away from Edwin. I haven't seen him play SS, but if he has decent range and a good arm, I'm all for him playing over Lopez.

captainmorgan07
07-22-2007, 06:51 PM
kepp has been playing very well. I like that kepp can play mutliple infield spots and the outfield in a pinch. He can be a very good pinch hitter and i'd like to see him get 2 start per week at either short or third. This is untill gonzo gets back or edwin starts to heat up again.

REDblooded
07-22-2007, 09:27 PM
Just thinking out loud here.........but if Keppinger shows that he can have continued success on the big club, could this open up the possibility of EE moving to the OF? I've long heard that Edwin has the athleticism necessary to be a good OF'r, and if he could make that move, it would certainly allow for Dunn to be traded without receiving a competent OFr in return.

HBP
07-22-2007, 09:54 PM
Just thinking out loud here.........but if Keppinger shows that he can have continued success on the big club, could this open up the possibility of EE moving to the OF? I've long heard that Edwin has the athleticism necessary to be a good OF'r, and if he could make that move, it would certainly allow for Dunn to be traded without receiving a competent OFr in return.

I could see that for a temporary solution but no more. Edwin never even played the OF in the minors. Plus, you'd be losing important power numbers; I don't think Keppinger combined with Edwin would equal Dunn's HR production and most teams rely on the LF position to provide power.

keeganbrick
07-22-2007, 10:46 PM
I have to admit tht Lopez has been playing great Shortstop so far this year and has shown really good range too.

Chris Sabowned
07-23-2007, 12:17 AM
I could see that for a temporary solution but no more. Edwin never even played the OF in the minors. Plus, you'd be losing important power numbers; I don't think Keppinger combined with Edwin would equal Dunn's HR production and most teams rely on the LF position to provide power.

Does it really matter where you are getting your power, just as long as you get it. We may not get a lot of homers out of LF with Edwin, but most other teams don't get 30 homers from their 2nd baseman.

ChatterRed
07-23-2007, 01:16 AM
EE reminds me of a young Tony Perez (in theory, not actuality). He is no hall of famer like Tony.........but bear with me, in that I think he might be better off at first base and maybe we play Keppinger at 3B the rest of the season, if they trade Hatteberg.

AmarilloRed
07-23-2007, 01:31 AM
EE reminds me of a young Tony Perez (in theory, not actuality). He is no hall of famer like Tony.........but bear with me, in that I think he might be better off at first base and maybe we play Keppinger at 3B the rest of the season, if they trade Hatteberg.

I am pretty sure Votto is the future starter at first base, barring a trade. I could see a platoon developing beween Keppinger and Edwin; even if Keppinger doesn't start. The difference between Denorfia and Keppinger is that Denorfia had no power, and he didn't hit as well in the majors as he did at AAA. Denorfia was what some call a AAAA player. It seems that Keppinger has more power with 3 doubles and 1 hr in limited playing time. Again, small sample size, but I am encouraged by what I see out of Keppinger.

keeganbrick
07-23-2007, 03:23 AM
Denorfia plays better defense than Keppinger though, I would say Kepp is more of an AAAA player than Deno is.

BearcatShane
07-23-2007, 03:28 AM
If Kepp ever gets a chance to start everyday I promise you he would be a 300 hitter.

AtomicDumpling
07-23-2007, 04:03 AM
Keppinger is a utility player and pinch hitter and nothing more. He is 27 years old and playing for his 4th team. He is hot right now, but don't get carried away. He is a huge upgrade over Castro, but Castro shouldn't have even been in the majors for the last five years.

Keppinger has proven over the course of several seasons that he has no power. He is a slap-hitting infielder with no upside. Your comparisons to Denorfia are right on. They are both very good career minor leaguers that will see temporary stints in the majors when someone gets injured.

Encarnacion is just 24 years old and has already proven he can hit for power and decent batting average. His numbers were identical to Phillips' last year even though EE is two years younger. EE will be a quality 3B for somebody for years to come. He will continue to improve and his power will develop more fully. Have patience, he is still a prospect.

Triples
07-23-2007, 09:49 AM
That's same thing the baseball pundits said about a guy named Eckstein. You and they may be right about Keppinger, but I say give him his shot, and let the proof be in the pudding.


Keppinger is a utility player and pinch hitter and nothing more. He is 27 years old and playing for his 4th team. He is hot right now, but don't get carried away. He is a huge upgrade over Castro, but Castro shouldn't have even been in the majors for the last five years.

Keppinger has proven over the course of several seasons that he has no power. He is a slap-hitting infielder with no upside. Your comparisons to Denorfia are right on. They are both very good career minor leaguers that will see temporary stints in the majors when someone gets injured.

Encarnacion is just 24 years old and has already proven he can hit for power and decent batting average. His numbers were identical to Phillips' last year even though EE is two years younger. EE will be a quality 3B for somebody for years to come. He will continue to improve and his power will develop more fully. Have patience, he is still a prospect.

HBP
07-23-2007, 10:05 AM
Does it really matter where you are getting your power, just as long as you get it. We may not get a lot of homers out of LF with Edwin, but most other teams don't get 30 homers from their 2nd baseman.

When you only get 15-20 HR's out of 1B like the Reds will, yes I think it's important to get power numbers out of LF.

REDblooded
07-23-2007, 11:14 AM
On Dunn's power numbers. In the scenario that EE moves to left, Keppinger plays third, you have Hamilton at CF, who if healthy can give you above average power numbers. Votto will provide more power than HatteNine, and Griffey gives you plenty of power at right field, with Jay Bruce another young power bat ready to take over when Griffey moves on. I see a team that still has above average power, but can make more consistent contact than what the team has now. Face it, power isn't this teams problem, it's consistent hitting and pitching.

AmarilloRed
07-26-2007, 12:52 AM
Keppinger went 1 for 4 tonight with a double and 3 rbis. His average is now at .308. Edwin went 1 for 3 and his BA is around .258. It seems right now he is continuing to put pressure on Edwin. It is not really fair to compare the two of them on a nightly basis; but Edwin has had 1.5 years to make the job his, and he hasn't done it. I hope both of them are future starters for the Reds, but I suspect both of them are in a competition. One of them will be the starting third baseman, and the other will inherit Castro's infield utility job.

DTCromer
07-26-2007, 01:51 AM
Keppinger is a utility player and pinch hitter and nothing more. He is 27 years old and playing for his 4th team. He is hot right now, but don't get carried away. He is a huge upgrade over Castro, but Castro shouldn't have even been in the majors for the last five years.

Keppinger has proven over the course of several seasons that he has no power. He is a slap-hitting infielder with no upside. Your comparisons to Denorfia are right on. They are both very good career minor leaguers that will see temporary stints in the majors when someone gets injured.

Encarnacion is just 24 years old and has already proven he can hit for power and decent batting average. His numbers were identical to Phillips' last year even though EE is two years younger. EE will be a quality 3B for somebody for years to come. He will continue to improve and his power will develop more fully. Have patience, he is still a prospect.

Like I told someone else, Brendan Harris is 27 and is playing on his 5th team and many people criticized Wayne for trading him. How come no one seems to be giving WK much credit for picking up Kepp?

DTCromer
07-26-2007, 01:52 AM
When you only get 15-20 HR's out of 1B like the Reds will, yes I think it's important to get power numbers out of LF.

Don't the Reds lead the league in HR's? HR's are the least of my concern. I think it's almost been proven that HR's are overrated. . . much to the chagrin of people who hate Marty.

AtomicDumpling
07-26-2007, 02:03 AM
I agree that WK deserves some credit for picking up Keppinger. Kep is a guy that is in the prime of his career right now. He is hitting well and is worthy of being on a major league roster. He is at least as good as most of the utility players in the league. He is also quite valuable as a pinch-hitter. I like him a million times more than Juan Castro.

I just don't think we should get carried away. He isn't a prospect anymore. He has failed with 3 other teams. He is a useful guy to have around, but he isn't going to be a long-term starter on the Reds. Keppinger is very similar to Hopper in value and upside.

I disagree that HRs are overrated. Homers correlate strongly with a team's runs scored over the course of the season. What I mean is that teams that hit a lot of homers also score a lot of runs. Scoring a lot of runs correlates with winning games -- unless your pitching/defense allows even more runs like the Reds' does.

High OBP combined with SLG (in the form of homers) is the most successful offensive strategy over the last 15 years. Teams that play small ball struggle to score runs. Most teams that play small ball only resort to that because they can't hit home runs. The Reds hit tons of homers but they fail the test because they give way too many at-bats to low-OBP guys like Freel, Gonzalez and Ross.

AmarilloRed
07-26-2007, 02:06 PM
I agree that WK deserves some credit for picking up Keppinger. Kep is a guy that is in the prime of his career right now. He is hitting well and is worthy of being on a major league roster. He is at least as good as most of the utility players in the league. He is also quite valuable as a pinch-hitter. I like him a million times more than Juan Castro.

I just don't think we should get carried away. He isn't a prospect anymore. He has failed with 3 other teams. He is a useful guy to have around, but he isn't going to be a long-term starter on the Reds. Keppinger is very similar to Hopper in value and upside.

I disagree that HRs are overrated. Homers correlate strongly with a team's runs scored over the course of the season. What I mean is that teams that hit a lot of homers also score a lot of runs. Scoring a lot of runs correlates with winning games -- unless your pitching/defense allows even more runs like the Reds' does.

High OBP combined with SLG (in the form of homers) is the most successful offensive strategy over the last 15 years. Teams that play small ball struggle to score runs. Most teams that play small ball only resort to that because they can't hit home runs. The Reds hit tons of homers but they fail the test because they give way too many at-bats to low-OBP guys like Freel, Gonzalez and Ross.

You make a good point. There were many of us last year who believed Ross had finally put it all together after being a .230 hitter in the minors his whole career. It is painfully clear Ross had a career year last year and he will go back to being a .230 hitter. However the same can not necessarily be said for Jeff Keppinger. He hit .350 in the International League and has continued to hit well at the major league level, .308 with a number of doubles and 1 hr. He has definitely played well in his limited playing time. You may yet be proved correct and Keppinger will regress into the utility player you believe him to be. However, right now he is playing well enough to take the starting third base job from Edwin.

JLB5
07-26-2007, 02:14 PM
He signed his own death warrant today for this site's crowd. When asked to describe his game, he used the word "scrappy."

Muggerd
07-26-2007, 08:48 PM
I want edwin and Kepp in the line up everyday. You have to find a spot for them both. Edwin had 70 rbis just a season ago in 117 or so odd games and 31 2 years ago in 70 games. I dont know why management has been so hard on him this year. Sure his power is down but could that be a little mental? If you ask me I think edwin hasnt been given a fair shot this season. His situational stats are actually pretty good if you ask me.

Maldez
07-26-2007, 10:06 PM
Keppinger is 3 times the hitter of Castro. To be honest, I'd rather see Keppinger the regular 3B-man, over Encarnation.

boognish
07-26-2007, 10:18 PM
Keppinger is 3 times the hitter of Castro. To be honest, I'd rather see Keppinger the regular 3B-man, over Encarnation.

Why? Encarnacion proved last season in 117 games that he has good patience, doubles power, and a nice line drive stroke. I personally think his defense will only improve to the point where he can be one of the top 5 NL 3B. He has looked horrible at times this season, but I would like to prove once and for all whether being pulled in and out of the lineup is contributing to his funks or merely corrlative...cheap, league average 3B do not grow on trees.

Keppinger's upside probably doesn't match EE's 2006 production; what he has shown he can accomplish. Why not give him all of the AB and see if he can regain his power stroke?

I think it speaks volumes as to how bad this bench has been with the departures of WMP and Aurilia that any time a bench player shows a 10-game flash of success, a multitude of fans start clamoring for him to play every day. It reminds me of the halcyon days of "Kelly Stinnett should start." Keppinger's value declines precipitously if he is an every day starter at a power position...other teams get a good amount of power from that spot.

Maldez
07-26-2007, 11:39 PM
Why? Encarnacion proved last season in 117 games that he has good patience, doubles power, and a nice line drive stroke. ....

That was last year. He doesn't look like the same guy this year. He shows flashes, but overall his production just hasn't been there.

On the other hand, Keppinger just looks like a hitter up there. He slaps the ball all over the field consistently and just gives me the feeling he's going to get a hit every time up. Not so with Edwin.

boognish
07-26-2007, 11:48 PM
That was last year. He doesn't look like the same guy this year. He shows flashes, but overall his production just hasn't been there.

On the other hand, Keppinger just looks like a hitter up there. He slaps the ball all over the field consistently and just gives me the feeling he's going to get a hit every time up. Not so with Edwin.

Keppinger belongs on the roster, I wouldn't dispute that. Objectively, EE has looked awful at times and has looked disinterested at times. I am simply stating my belief that the third base at bats for the rest of the season are better utilized on EE in order to figure out what the roster should look like in the future. Jeff Keppinger will not be the starting third baseman on the next good Reds team. It is possible EE could be, and the Reds need to figure out if he is part ofthe plan.

AmarilloRed
07-27-2007, 01:46 AM
Encarcion is not the player he was last year. It is up to the Reds to find out if he is just in a sophomore slump, or if he has lost the talent he showed last year. Edwin is the startibng third baseman until he plays himself out of the starting position. It does not help Edwin that Keppinger is hitting better than him.

BearcatShane
07-27-2007, 01:49 AM
I think Keppinger could be the perfect 2 hole hitter.

Maldez
07-27-2007, 08:26 AM
Keppinger belongs on the roster, I wouldn't dispute that. Objectively, EE has looked awful at times and has looked disinterested at times. I am simply stating my belief that the third base at bats for the rest of the season are better utilized on EE in order to figure out what the roster should look like in the future. Jeff Keppinger will not be the starting third baseman on the next good Reds team. It is possible EE could be, and the Reds need to figure out if he is part ofthe plan.

Losing his starting spot could be just the cure for a disinterested Encarnacion. If I'm Pete MacKanin I get Keppinger as many innings as I can the rest of the year to get a handle on him for 2008. Right now, he looks like starter material.