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Buckeye33
07-12-2007, 07:47 AM
Nothing to earth shattering but figured I'd post the Reds roundup.

2. Jay Bruce - OF Reds - DOB: 04/03/87 - ETA: 2009
Previous rankings: 2006 #130, mid-2006 #23, 2007 #8

.325/.379/.586, 11 HR, 49 RBI, 67/24 K/BB, 4 SB in 268 AB for Single-A Sarasota
.333/.405/.652, 4 HR, 15 RBI, 20/8 K/BB, 2 SB in 66 AB for Double-A Chattanooga

Bruce doesn't have quite as much defensive value as Cameron Maybin or Andrew McCutchen, but his power potential gets him rated the highest of the three high school outfielders taken consecutively in the 2005 draft. Bruce projects as a 35-homer guy from the left side of the plate. While it likely will be a couple of years before he's ready to hold his own versus left-handers, he should hit for average against righties. Bruce is still getting most of his time now in center field, but he figures to settle in as an above average defender in right in the majors. He could be a candidate to join the Cincinnati outfield before the end of next year, depending on what happens with Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey Jr. Growing pains are likely, but he should be an All-Star in time.


20. Joey Votto - 1B Reds - DOB: 09/10/83 - ETA: July 2007
Previous rankings: mid-2004 #144, 2005 #105, mid-2005 #130, 2006 ---, mid-2006 #63, 2007 #48

.315/.412/.482, 11 HR, 50 RBI, 66/50 K/BB, 10 SB in 305 AB for Triple-A Louisville

Since both Adam Dunn and Scott Hatteberg are candidates to be traded, Votto, who was drafted out of Canada in the second round five years ago, should be making his last appearance in the rankings. Votto offers 25-homer potential from the left side of the plate. Southpaws give him problems, so he could spend his first couple of years in the majors as a platoon player. He's capable of hitting .270-.280 with a quality OBP against right-handers right now. Votto is a natural first baseman, but he's been playing some left field this season just in case he's needed there. Ideally, he'd get to play first base right away after his promotion. His proximity to the majors and short-term upside make him a top fantasy prospect.


33. Johnny Cueto - RHP Reds - DOB: 02/15/86 - ETA: June 2008
Previous rankings: none

4-5, 3.33 ERA, 72 H, 72/21 K/BB in 78 1/3 IP for Single-A Sarasota
2-0, 0.47 ERA, 11 H, 27/4 K/BB in 19 IP for Double-A Chattanooga
1-0, 3.60 ERA, 5 H, 6/0 K/BB in 5 IP for Triple-A Louisville

Cueto didn't make the preseason Top 150, though as the Reds' No. 6 prospect, he was one of the top five cuts. It was the likelihood of injury that hurt him then and still costs him a few spots now. Cueto can throw in the mid-90s and sits comfortably at 93 mph. His slider is a top-notch No. 2 pitch, and he's made a lot of progress with his changeup on his way to striking out more than a batter an inning this year. Because he stands just 5-foot-10, there's some thought that he might end up in the pen. However, that's only going to happen if arm problems strike. He's showing No. 2-starter upside.


#84 - Drew Stubbs

#133 - Travis Wood

Talk amongst yourselves.

Benihana
07-12-2007, 09:24 AM
Drew Stubbs at 84 kind of questions the credibility of the list, otherwise I have no problems with those rankings. I actually think they're pretty spot on.

I had Bruce at #2, Votto at #14, and Cueto at #29 in my rankings. I would also put Wood and Watson in the 130-150 range.

PuffyPig
07-12-2007, 09:49 AM
Drew Stubbs at 84 kind of questions the credibility of the list, otherwise I have no problems with those rankings. I actually think they're pretty spot on.

Stubbs remains a top prospect because of his obvious skills. All he needs to do is learn to make better contact and he's a major leaguer of some sort. The majors are full of players who got off to very slow starts in the minors.

It remains to be seen if Stubbs is one of those.

Benihana
07-12-2007, 09:52 AM
It just seems kind of lazy to me- the guy puts up the awful numbers he's put up this year in a league he's too old for, and yet he moves UP 27 spots on the list from the preseason?

dougdirt
07-12-2007, 10:42 AM
It just seems kind of lazy to me- the guy puts up the awful numbers he's put up this year in a league he's too old for, and yet he moves UP 27 spots on the list from the preseason?

While I certainly don't agree with where Stubbs was ranked he plays a premiere defensive position where you dont have to hit a whole lot to be of value. His on base percentage suggests that if he ever hits at all, he will be quite valuable.

Patrick Bateman
07-12-2007, 12:13 PM
I have trouble seeing him as a top 100 guy right now, but he's certainly top 150.

Yes he has struggled, but with his plate patience he still has a shot at reaching his potential. The raw power just needs to start coming in. There is still a lot of talent there.

bucksfan2
07-12-2007, 01:36 PM
Could it be that a lot of scouts view Stubbs more highly than most people on this board?

dougdirt
07-12-2007, 01:38 PM
Could it be that a lot of scouts view Stubbs more highly than most people on this board?

Could be.

Patrick Bateman
07-12-2007, 01:42 PM
Could it be that a lot of scouts view Stubbs more highly than most people on this board?

Definitely. It was the scouts that made him a top pick.

Stubbs was never a guy adored by stat analysis. Most scouts even predicted that Stubbs would be a major work in process and that his hitting wasn't going to be fast to develop.

Benihana
07-12-2007, 01:44 PM
Could it be that a lot of scouts view Stubbs more highly than most people on this board?

Well then lets trade him for some value to whatever team employs such scouts.

Hatteberg, Weathers and Stubbs to the Yanks for Joba Chamberlain and Alan Thorne?
Lohse and Stubbs to the Phils for Carlos Carrasco?
Conine and Stubbs to the Braves for Matt Harrison?

I think you get the idea.

11larkin11
07-12-2007, 01:47 PM
Isnt there a time period where you cant trade recently drafted prospects?

Benihana
07-12-2007, 01:53 PM
Isnt there a time period where you cant trade recently drafted prospects?

yep, its 1 year, and that time has passed with Stubbs

flyer85
07-12-2007, 02:27 PM
Well then lets trade him for some value to whatever team employs such scouts.While I have always been a skeptic when it comes to Stubbs, there is no reason to make him a throwin on a trade. At this point he can't have much trade value. If not including him was a dealbreaker then by all means, include him. Otherwise, they should hang on to him.

Stubbs signing bonus is a sunk cost, he now costs the same as the rest of guys.

M2
07-12-2007, 02:33 PM
Stubbs remains a top prospect because of his obvious skills. All he needs to do is learn to make better contact and he's a major leaguer of some sort. The majors are full of players who got off to very slow starts in the minors.

It remains to be seen if Stubbs is one of those.

The majors are not full of guys out of college programs who got off to starts anywhere near as bad as what Stubbs is doing. I've looked. I can't find anybody even close.

If Stubbs becomes a productive major leaguer after getting off to this bad a start then he's going to be a fairly unique animal. There is nothing normal about what he's going through (at least nothing that qualifies as normal for good players).

dougdirt
07-12-2007, 02:38 PM
The majors are not full of guys out of college programs who got off to starts anywhere near as bad as what Stubbs is doing. I've looked. I can't find anybody even close.

If Stubbs becomes a productive major leaguer after getting off to this bad a start then he's going to be a fairly unique animal. There is nothing normal about what he's going through (at least nothing that qualifies as normal for good players).

Honest question though, and I doubt you really can find an answer becuase of how these things are, but does anyone jump out that was just hurt their first two seasons in the minors in those cases who seemingly underperformed (not even to Stubbs extent, but still not what was expected) and then once healthy kind of blew up?

Benihana
07-12-2007, 02:53 PM
I have trouble seeing him as a top 100 guy right now, but he's certainly top 150.

Yes he has struggled, but with his plate patience he still has a shot at reaching his potential. The raw power just needs to start coming in. There is still a lot of talent there.

Do you honestly believe he is a better prospect at this point than Sean Watson or Juan Francisco? If so, :eek:

M2
07-12-2007, 02:54 PM
Honest question though, and I doubt you really can find an answer becuase of how these things are, but does anyone jump out that was just hurt their first two seasons in the minors in those cases who seemingly underperformed (not even to Stubbs extent, but still not what was expected) and then once healthy kind of blew up?

I've been trying to think of one and no one leaps to mind. I Baseball Cubed a lot of players (though by no means was the search exhaustive). I'd actually like to find some comps for Stubbs. Perhaps the best out there is ... wait for it ... Chris Denorfia. Granted, Deno came from a small school, but he didn't light the rookie league on fire and I believe it was a hand injury that really dragged down his sophomore season in the minors.

Patrick Bateman
07-12-2007, 02:55 PM
Do you honestly believe he is a better prospect at this point than Sean Watson or Juan Francisco? If so, :eek:

Watson would be a pretty fair debate, but I'm not a big fan of Francisco.

He's showing great power for his age, but I have serious reservations about the rest of his game.

dougdirt
07-12-2007, 02:59 PM
I've been trying to think of one and no one leaps to mind. I Baseball Cubed a lot of players (though by no means was the search exhaustive). I'd actually like to find some comps for Stubbs. Perhaps the best out there is ... wait for it ... Chris Denorfia. Granted, Deno came from a small school, but he didn't light the rookie league on fire and I believe it was a hand injury that really dragged down his sophomore season in the minors.

Its interesting that you bring up Denorfia. I honestly have almost always seen Stubbs on a similar plan through the minor leagues. I think the two are differnt kinds of players at the plate, but since we drafted Stubbs (once I got over the idea that we actually drafted him) I have seen him a as a guy who probably would not be in the majors until he was 24/25ish because of the work he needed on his game, but that by the time he got there he could be very useful.

bucksfan2
07-12-2007, 03:00 PM
Here is the thing that I have trouble with. People are suggestion trading Stubbs 1 year into professional baseball, not to mention that he has played injured most of his professional career, because they don't like him. Ever since I started posting on this board there has been a huge anti-Stubbs contingent, IMO primarily because they took Stubbs instead of Lincecum. Look at the Lincecum thread and updates when Lincecum does good.

Heres the thing, Stubbs may be the best defensive CF in the entire reds organiztion. At the begining of the season the reds went into the season with a CF who has an OBP in the low .300, plays suspect defense, doesn't understand the fundamentals of baserunning, etc. Sure Stubbs is struggling but his OBP is .352 which would be welcomed if a current red could do that out of the leadoff spot. I just wish people would give him time to develop, maybe he never sees a major league field but to suggest to cut bait with him after 1 full season of professional baseball doesn't make sense to me.

dougdirt
07-12-2007, 03:02 PM
Do you honestly believe he is a better prospect at this point than Sean Watson or Juan Francisco? If so, :eek:

I think Watson is a better prospect than Stubbs is at this point. I think Francisco and Stubbs are about the same type of prospect. Both have good qualities going for them (Stubbs has the defense, speed and plate discipline. Francisco has a very nice arm and lots of power in his bat) but both have lots of questions surrounding their games and need to make strides to improve themselves.

I put out my Reds top 10 prospects last week and had Francisco at 9 and Stubbs at 10, although I could easily have switched them around without much thought.

Benihana
07-12-2007, 03:02 PM
Watson would be a pretty fair debate, but I'm not a big fan of Francisco.

He's showing great power for his age, but I have serious reservations about the rest of his game.

Well, he's only three years younger and putting up an OPS of almost 100 points higher (at the same level). I know his defense isn't the best, but I don't care if Stubbs is a better fielder than Torii Hunter, I still take Francisco looking at these numbers.

Patrick Bateman
07-12-2007, 03:26 PM
Well, he's only three years younger and putting up an OPS of almost 100 points higher (at the same level). I know his defense isn't the best, but I don't care if Stubbs is a better fielder than Torii Hunter, I still take Francisco looking at these numbers.

I don't think Francisco's disciplien will play very well as he moves up.

M2
07-12-2007, 04:19 PM
Its interesting that you bring up Denorfia. I honestly have almost always seen Stubbs on a similar plan through the minor leagues. I think the two are differnt kinds of players at the plate, but since we drafted Stubbs (once I got over the idea that we actually drafted him) I have seen him a as a guy who probably would not be in the majors until he was 24/25ish because of the work he needed on his game, but that by the time he got there he could be very useful.

Though that difference at the plate is significant. Denorfia's got a nice compact stroke. Stubbs doesn't. Denorfia didn't have to deconstruct his game, he simply had to enhance it. Stubbs may very well have to tear himself down to the foundation and do a complete rebuild of his stroke (something Mike Cameron did in between 1998 and 1999, fwiw).

The other thing about Denorfia is few players come with his combination of drive and unrealized game potential. Denorfia literally blasted through his ceiling twice in the minors and he'll have to do it a third time if he wants to be a major league regular. It's only an extreme few players who can do that. Most guys only achieve a percentage of their potential, not a multiple of it.

Aronchis
07-12-2007, 04:54 PM
From what I have seen from the Reds and Stubbs, his foot condition has done more harm than we realize this season. Because of his swing, he was never going to put up sexy numbers this year, but it was clear when he was in the lineup everyday for the month of June, he wilted badly, more badly than we expected. Now that they have given him some rest, he has stagnated his decline and his walks are back up.

I would have advised to fix his injury in May, but that is not my decision to make.

Stubbs future depends on how he developes his swing by shortening it to stroke. It will close holes and raise his contact ability. BJ never could do this(while also unlike Stubbs, doesn't walk a whole lot) and we see what happened to him.

Superdude
07-12-2007, 05:50 PM
Is anyone else intrigued that they called Cueto's slider a top notch second pitch? It seemed like it was described more as a solid breaking ball last year. I don't trust rotoworld, but maybe Cueto's added some bite to the slider this season?

OnBaseMachine
07-12-2007, 06:51 PM
Is anyone else intrigued that they called Cueto's slider a top notch second pitch? It seemed like it was described more as a solid breaking ball last year. I don't trust rotoworld, but maybe Cueto's added some bite to the slider this season?

In Baseball America's writeup on Cueto in last year's top ten prospects rundown, they describe Cueto's slider as overmatching hitters at times last season. Johnny Cueto definitely has the stuff to be a top-of-the-line starter.

Caveat Emperor
07-12-2007, 10:31 PM
Stubbs future depends on how he developes his swing by shortening it to stroke. It will close holes and raise his contact ability. BJ never could do this(while also unlike Stubbs, doesn't walk a whole lot) and we see what happened to him.

For a guy who, allegedly, brings as much speed to the table as Drew Stubbs does, I'm wondering if someone should just burn all the reports about "great power potential" and concentrate on just getting this guy to put the baseball in play to let his legs drive him through the early part of his minor league career.

PuffyPig
07-16-2007, 09:58 PM
The majors are not full of guys out of college programs who got off to starts anywhere near as bad as what Stubbs is doing. I've looked. I can't find anybody even close.

If Stubbs becomes a productive major leaguer after getting off to this bad a start then he's going to be a fairly unique animal. There is nothing normal about what he's going through (at least nothing that qualifies as normal for good players).

Good point, I haven't found many.

Three examples, of varying degrees, are Mike Lowell, Jeff Kent and Tim Salmon, who all posted below .800 OPS's with little power in their early years.

Stubbs keeps a decent OBA. With his premium fielding skills, even a little power will go a long way.

And he's only had about 1 year in the minors.

dougdirt
07-16-2007, 10:08 PM
Stubbs keeps a decent OBA. With his premium fielding skills, even a little power will go a long way.

And he's only had about 1 year in the minors.

And most of that entire year he has spent injured but still playing.

Kc61
07-16-2007, 10:39 PM
And most of that entire year he has spent injured but still playing.

Seems odd to me that everyone keeps lauding Stubbs' defense. If he's hurt so bad, how can he field so well? Seems like his injuries only affect his bat. Was he hurt last season? He didn't hit much at Billings either.

Stubbs began as a five tool prospect. Then he was Mike Cameron (solid bat, great defense). Now some folks predict he may only be a backup centerfielder.

All I'm looking for is one period -- say ten days -- in which Stubbs hits. I'm glad he walks a lot and I'm sorry he's had a foot injury, but one hot streak at the plate would be nice from the 8th pick in last year's draft.

dougdirt
07-16-2007, 10:46 PM
Seems odd to me that everyone keeps lauding Stubbs' defense. If he's hurt so bad, how can he field so well? Seems like his injuries only affect his bat.

Stubbs began as a five tool prospect. Then he was Mike Cameron (solid bat, great defense). Now some folks say he is a defensive backup.

All I'm looking for is one period -- say ten days -- in which Stubbs hits. I'm glad he walks and I'm sorry he's had a foot injury, but one hot streak at the plate would be nice from the 8th pick in last year's draft.

Well then you haven't been paying attention. In 11 games this month Stubbs is hitting .293/.509/.488 for an OPS of .997. He also has 14 walks to 12 strikeouts. Im sure he had a nice stretch in May as well where he posted an .850 OPS for the month.

dougdirt
07-16-2007, 10:47 PM
Oh, and yes he was hurt for the most of his time last year in Billings, although it was not talked about much at all. I didn't even know about it until the offseason when reading an interview with the Mustangs GM who brought up that Stubbs was hurt from about week 3 on but played through it.