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nate
07-12-2007, 11:31 AM
Just saw a rumor at Redleg Nation. He's been looking pretty good at AA this season. Does this mean the Reds might be tempted to give him a look in September or is he likely to stay at Louisville the rest of the year?

Sorry for the "how long is a piece of string" question!

dougdirt
07-12-2007, 11:38 AM
I have spent plenty of time talking to Bill from Redlegnation and I am confident in any information that he gets that he at least believes its true. If he says it... I believe it, or at least believe that he is not making anything up and that he actually did hear from someone reliable that its happening.

Benihana
07-12-2007, 11:42 AM
wow, if true, this is like a Dunn-esque meteoric rise through the system circa 2001

dougdirt
07-12-2007, 11:42 AM
wow, if true, this is like a Dunn-esque meteoric rise through the system circa 2001

Yeah, except Bruce is a year younger than Dunn was when he did it.

Cyclone792
07-12-2007, 12:02 PM
If this is true, then it possibly means two things ... 1) the Reds are interested in bringing him up to the big club in September (or earlier) to get him some meaningful big league plate appearances with the idea also floating in their head to have him on the big league club on Opening Day next season, and 2) something could be brewing on the trade front with one of our current outfielders at the big league level.

With his surge in performance and sudden and apparent quick rise through the system now, I just hope Reds fans give the kid a break over the next few years and don't suddenly tag him with unrealistic expectations. But given the culture of Reds fans, it wouldn't surprise me if they collectively determine that he should be the second coming of Mel Ott.

Degenerate39
07-12-2007, 12:10 PM
That was fast :shocked:

BRM
07-12-2007, 12:14 PM
Jay only has 74 plate appearances in AA. He does have an incredible line though - .333/.405/.652. His average, OBP, and slugging have all increased since his promotion.

dougdirt
07-12-2007, 12:26 PM
If this is true, then it possibly means two things ... 1) the Reds are interested in bringing him up to the big club in September (or earlier) to get him some meaningful big league plate appearances with the idea also floating in their head to have him on the big league club on Opening Day next season, and 2) something could be brewing on the trade front with one of our current outfielders at the big league level.

With his surge in performance and sudden and apparent quick rise through the system now, I just hope Reds fans give the kid a break over the next few years and don't suddenly tag him with unrealistic expectations. But given the culture of Reds fans, it wouldn't surprise me if they collectively determine that he should be the second coming of Mel Ott.

That Ott character was pretty good.

My thoughts are that its a mixture of both ideas that you floated around. If the Reds are seriously worried about Hamiltons wrist, then that leaves the Reds with a starting outfield of Dunn, Freel and Griffey with Norris Hopper as the backup. If the Reds are looking to trade even one of the corner guys they need someone ready, or at least close to ready and Jay might be that guy.

flyer85
07-12-2007, 12:37 PM
Bruce is having a great season, but nothing like the one Dunn had in 2001. Dunn had 32 HRs and has OPSed over 1100(440+ OBP and 660+ SLG) by mid July.

60 some ABs in AA really isn't enough for a promotion.

BRM
07-12-2007, 12:41 PM
My thoughts are that its a mixture of both ideas that you floated around. If the Reds are seriously worried about Hamiltons wrist, then that leaves the Reds with a starting outfield of Dunn, Freel and Griffey with Norris Hopper as the backup. If the Reds are looking to trade even one of the corner guys they need someone ready, or at least close to ready and Jay might be that guy.

Jay may just be replacing Dickerson or Wise on the Louisville roster while they take Josh's spot on the 25 man. Assuming Josh is DL'ed, that is.

Kc61
07-12-2007, 12:44 PM
There is no point to keeping Bruce at AA. He might as well face more experienced pitching at AAA to help him get ready for the bigs. Nobody has identified any weakness in his game that has to be worked out at AA.

If this is true it is an excellent move by the Reds. And if Dunn or Griffey are moved by 7/31, I'm sure you'll see Bruce in Cincy by September.

dougdirt
07-12-2007, 12:45 PM
Bruce is having a great season, but nothing like the one Dunn had in 2001. Dunn had 32 HRs and has OPSed over 1100(440+ OBP and 660+ SLG) by mid July.

60 some ABs in AA really isn't enough for a promotion.

Lets not forget though that Dunn was 21 that season while Jay is just 20.

flyer85
07-12-2007, 12:49 PM
Lets not forget though that Dunn was 21 that season while Jay is just 20.
Lets not forget Dunn did it in AA and AAA, not High A and AA.

dougdirt
07-12-2007, 12:51 PM
Lets not forget Dunn did it in AA and AAA, not High A and AA.

True, but what Adam was doing in Low A at age 20 doesn't come close to comparing to what Jay is doing at age 20 in High A and AA.

flyer85
07-12-2007, 12:57 PM
True, but what Adam was doing in Low A at age 20 doesn't come close to comparing to what Jay is doing at age 20 in High A and AA.and it is a highly likely that what Bruce will do at 21 won't compare with what Dunn did at 21 in AA and AAA.

Falls City Beer
07-12-2007, 01:00 PM
and it is a highly likely that what Bruce will do at 21 won't compare with what Dunn did at 21 in AA and AAA.

Why do you say that? Bruce looks to me like a young J.D. Drew, not a young Dunn. And as much I like Dunn, he ain't J.D. Drew.

dougdirt
07-12-2007, 01:02 PM
Well for starters Jay wont spend a game in AA as a 21 year old. The more I think about it the more I wonder how much time he will even spend in AAA as a 21 year old. Its going to be real hard to try and compare the two a year from now as 21 year olds when Jay is going to be at completely different levels than Adam Dunn was.

flyer85
07-12-2007, 01:07 PM
Why do you say that? Bruce looks to me like a young J.D. Drew, not a young Dunn. And as much I like Dunn, he ain't J.D. Drew.Good thing Dunn isn't Drew and I sure hope Bruce isn't either. I hope they don't rush him either. His ETA is some time in 2008 and taking over as the regular RF in 2009. Bruce will likely hit for a higher average with less power than Dunn. He still has work to do in the minors.

The numbers Bruce is putting up are very similar to what Kearns and Dunn were doing in the minors. The question on those guys was where did the ability to hit for a higher average go? I think rushing them both to the majors did neither a favor. The pitching is exponentially tougher.

flyer85
07-12-2007, 01:08 PM
Well for starters Jay wont spend a game in AA as a 21 year old. The more I think about it the more I wonder how much time he will even spend in AAA as a 21 year old. Its going to be real hard to try and compare the two a year from now as 21 year olds when Jay is going to be at completely different levels than Adam Dunn was.Dunn spent 2 months in AAA at age 21. It seems likely Bruce will spend at least 2 months there in 2008 when he is 21.

BTW, Dunn put up almost the exact same numbers in AA and AAA. The Reds should hope for the same from Bruce.

Falls City Beer
07-12-2007, 01:09 PM
Good thing Dunn isn't Drew and I sure hope Bruce isn't either.

Yeah, Dunn's had several +.400 OBP seasons. I remember them.

The only thing Dunn's got on Drew is health (which is important, true.) I'll take Drew's game any day of the week over Dunn's.

dougdirt
07-12-2007, 01:13 PM
Dunn spent 2 months in AAA at age 21. It seems likely Bruce will spend at least 2 months there in 2008.

Yes, but Dunn's two months were June and July.


Good thing Dunn isn't Drew and I sure hope Bruce isn't either. I hope they don't rush him either. His ETA is some time in 2008 and taking over as the regular RF in 2009. Bruce will likely hit for a higher average with less power than Dunn. He still has work to do in the minors.

The numbers Bruce is putting up are very similar to what Kearns and Dunn were doing in the minors. The question on those guys was where did the ability to hit for a higher average go? I think rushing them both to the majors did neither a favor. The pitching is exponentially tougher.

JD Drew, as a player is very, very good. His health problems aside, he is a great hitter. While Jay may or may not hit as many home runs as Dunn, his power will be much better in terms of slugging. He will hit for a higher average, hit more doubles and hit a similar number of home runs as Adam Dunn.

As for the numbers Bruce is puting up being similar to Kearns and Dunn, its true. Problem is he is doing stuff at a level or two levels higher than they were at the same age and that makes a WORLD of a difference. Can you imagine what Jay Bruce would be donig in the Midwest League if he were repeating his season there? That is what Dunn and Kearns were doing as 20 year olds.

flyer85
07-12-2007, 01:16 PM
Yeah, Dunn's had several +.400 OBP seasons. I remember them.Drew has hopped between 4 different teams has only played over 140 games twice in his career and has a 893 career OPS. BTW, Dunns career OPS is also .893.

Drew is a guy with a lot of talent who, for whatever reason, has not been able to stay on the field.

Just goes to show how easily things can go awry from all the projections. I think even though Drew has had a decent career to this point, everyone would consider it a disappointment.

AmarilloRed
07-12-2007, 01:49 PM
Jay Bruce is the future right fielder for the Cincinnati Reds. I would be satisfied if he was the Opening Day right fielder in 2009, but if he was doing well enough to be promoted to Louisville this year, let's see what he can do in AAA.

Highlifeman21
07-12-2007, 01:54 PM
If Jay Bruce ends up on the Reds in 2007, the Reds will be 2 for 2 in rushing highly touted prospects for 2007.

thorn
07-12-2007, 02:08 PM
I don't think it would be an issue to bring up young position players (20, 21 yrs old) to the majors if they deserve it. I don't believe you can rush position players. Look at how many young players over the pst 5 years who have came up to the big leagues at the age of 20, 21, and can you honestly say they are better than bruce at the same point in their carrers? Bruce will be fine, IMO.

mound_patrol
07-12-2007, 02:16 PM
So is there any more truth to this rumor yet?

dougdirt
07-12-2007, 02:44 PM
Its official.

http://www.timesfreepress.com/absolutenm/templates/sports.aspx?articleid=18043&zoneid=6


Following the game, Bruce was promoted to Triple-A Louisville to help plug short-term concerns with the Bats. Earlier this week, shortstop Paul Janish was called up to Louisville.

Lookouts manager Jayhawk Owens expects Bruce and Janish, two of Cincinnati's top 10 prospects, back within a week.

redsmetz
07-12-2007, 02:49 PM
I know I sound like a broken record, but the short stay at AA does seem to be in keeping with WK's stated philosophy of Station to Station promotion. I've found very few exceptions to this rule, even if the stays were very short.

11larkin11
07-12-2007, 02:51 PM
I may be in the minority, but I like this move. Hopefully he sticks and is there for the remainder of the season, barring a September call up.

nmculbreth
07-12-2007, 02:51 PM
Any idea on where they're going to play Bruce while he's in AAA?

11larkin11
07-12-2007, 02:55 PM
I would guess right since Dickerson is in center. Who knows though, with mini-Narron down there. I hope Bruce is in the lineup tonight, though I doubt it. Bruce, Bailey, and Votto all in the same game. Looks like Cincinnati in 2008!

Benihana
07-12-2007, 02:55 PM
I like Bruce in AAA. Keep him there til the end of the year. Maybe a September callup to the Reds only if he continues to hit in AAA like he has in AA.

I think its looking more and more like he will be patrolling GAB on a regular basis before next summer.

IslandRed
07-12-2007, 03:09 PM
Well, they SAY it's temporary, but I'm not so sure...

dougdirt
07-12-2007, 03:10 PM
Well, they SAY it's temporary, but I'm not so sure...

I am with you completely.

reds44
07-12-2007, 03:18 PM
The Bats had Anderson Machado playing RF before the break. I think that's where Bruce will play.

Joseph
07-12-2007, 03:18 PM
So this is more of a test, and not really a promotion if he's only supposed to be up for a week, kind of like Cueto a month ago or whatever it was.

dougdirt
07-12-2007, 03:32 PM
So this is more of a test, and not really a promotion if he's only supposed to be up for a week, kind of like Cueto a month ago or whatever it was.

They are claiming its just because the Bats need players.... but for position players I don't see many teams doing this with players like Jay Bruce. And when I say many teams, I mean any.

I don't know if I buy the entire thing. If Jay goes up there for lets say 6 or 7 games and hits .300 with a HR or two and plays solid, then I think the Reds will actually keep him there.

Just my guess.

Matt700wlw
07-12-2007, 03:55 PM
Well, they SAY it's temporary, but I'm not so sure...

Temporary as in....when a spot opens up in the outfield for the Reds temporary, or temporary as in......give him a taste, see what he does, and then send him back to AA if he's overmatched temporary...?

dougdirt
07-12-2007, 03:56 PM
Temporary as in....when a spot opens up in the outfield for the Reds temporary, or temporary as in......give him a taste, see what he does, and then send him back to AA if he's overmatched temporary...?

I think its more along the lines of 'right now its as a fill in' but if he hits I wonder how much it will change their tune?

Kc61
07-12-2007, 03:57 PM
Bruce is now on the Louisville Roster.

Bailey, Bruce and Votto are now all on the same team. Maybe Reds should televise the Louisville game tonight instead of the major league tilt.

indy_dave00
07-12-2007, 03:58 PM
I'm with Doug on this if Jay Bruce is comfortable at Louisville over the next week or so chances are he'll remain there. Watching the Bats games and seeing Machado in rf made me wonder how long before Bruce would be brought up.

If Cueto puts together a couple more outstanding starts you could well see him at Louisville soon.

The Chattanooga announcer was talking about Jay Bruce a few days ago , he says he's the real deal and could hit in Cincy right now but would struggle against quality lefties. Also said the same thing announcers at the futures game on ESPN said when Jay Bruce hits the ball it has a sound different from when most batters hit a ball. Steve Phillips and Gary Thorne called Jay and Justin Upton the 2 best prospects in the minors complete players. Phillips was the Mets former GM, I trust he knows what he is saying when he heaped the praise on Jay Bruce.

If you have the milb package the Louisville game should be on the video portion tonight its a home game. Starts at 7:05 hopefully both Bruce and Votto will be in the lineup Bailey will be on the mound. Chase Wright a 24 year old lefty , 6-3 with a 4.08 era will be working for the Yankees AAA team.

BRM
07-12-2007, 03:58 PM
Bruce is now on the Louisville Roster.

Bailey, Bruce and Votto are now all on the same team. Maybe Reds should televise the Louisville game tonight instead of the major league tilt.

No kidding. I'd love to see the Bats game tonight.

Az. Reds Fan
07-12-2007, 04:13 PM
FYI, the Bats are facing lefty Chase Wright tonight, a quality lefty who's seen time with the Yankees this year. Probably best described as a crafty lefty, not a big strikeout guy. Should be a good initial test for Bruce.

11larkin11
07-12-2007, 04:17 PM
...if he plays....which if he does, ill be listening to the Big Three while watching the Reds

BRM
07-12-2007, 04:22 PM
Fay's blog update.



Jay Bruce, the Reds No. 1 position player prospect, is going to Triple-A Louisville -- temporarily. He's with the Bats while Dewayne Wise is on the DL.

Even the short stint shows that the Reds have a lot of confidence in Bruce. Not many guys can hold their own in Triple A at 20.

What if he's hitting .400 when Wise gets healthy?

"That's something we'll have to decide at the time," player development director Terry Reynolds said.

My guess is if Bruce does well in Louisville, we'll see him in the Cincinnati in September.

dougdirt
07-12-2007, 04:26 PM
JF said something smart about baseball. Wow.

Patrick Bateman
07-12-2007, 04:32 PM
They are claiming its just because the Bats need players.... but for position players I don't see many teams doing this with players like Jay Bruce. And when I say many teams, I mean any.

I don't know if I buy the entire thing. If Jay goes up there for lets say 6 or 7 games and hits .300 with a HR or two and plays solid, then I think the Reds will actually keep him there.

Just my guess.


Ya. Remember when Kearns was brought up to the majors for a cup of coffee and he played so well he became the favorite for ROY before getting injured.

indy_dave00
07-12-2007, 04:33 PM
I love the idea of challenging your best young players .Jay Bruce was terrible his 1st game at Chattanooga 0 for 5 striking out 4 times. But adjusted quickly and hit .361 22/61 in the next 15 games. With 7 -2b's , a triple , 4 homers and 15 rbi's.

Its nice as a Reds fans to be excited over top rated prospects finally starting to come thru the farm system again. Bailey, Votto , Bruce and Cueto plus many others finally give us hope for a supply of quality homegrown talent making its way to Great American Ballpark.

OnBaseMachine
07-12-2007, 07:32 PM
I hope Jay goes up there and dominates and forces the Reds to keep him in Louisville. What a phenominal year by Jay Bruce, he could be the favorite to win the Baseball America Player of the Year at this point.

Chi-Town Red
07-12-2007, 07:35 PM
GREAT NEWS!!!! cant wait too see how he does...you can play at the major leauge level at a young age just ask Junior, Robin Yount or Andruw Jones

indy_dave00
07-12-2007, 07:41 PM
Very odd tonight Jay Bruce is starting hitting 6th playing centerfield but Joey Votto isn't playing.

OnBaseMachine
07-12-2007, 07:42 PM
Very odd tonight Jay Bruce is starting hitting 6th playing centerfield but Joey Votto isn't playing.

He played in the AAA All-Star game last night in New Mexico, so their probably just giving him a day of rest.

Chi-Town Red
07-12-2007, 07:44 PM
He played in the AAA All-Star game last night in New Mexico, so their probably just giving him a day of rest.my guess as well

corkedbat
07-12-2007, 08:54 PM
I smelled this the other day when I asked in another thread if they'd move him to Louisville if they called up Votto. If he struggles, they can frame it as a temporary thing to give him a taste and help the Bats' depth woes. If he holds his own though, I think you'll see him there for the rest of the season.

I think the powers-that-be are going to give him every opportunity to win a job outright in ST next year and unless he shows he's nowhere near ready, I expect Jay to be a starter in the Cincy outfield no later than the trade deadline next year.

Caveat Emperor
07-12-2007, 11:24 PM
For the record, I dig this move.

If AA pitching isn't challenging Bruce, then he needs to play to a level that forces him to refine his game and make adjustments. He's never going to learn if he can rake everything he sees.

Having said that, he should stop here from the remainder of the season. Let him see the same teams once or twice at AAA to see how he handles things. If he continues to obliterate the baseball, then talk about him becoming a big leaguer out of spring training next year.