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mth123
07-15-2007, 05:07 PM
Chatt tied at 0-0.

Steve Kelly 5IP, 4H, 3K.

mth123
07-15-2007, 05:08 PM
Louisville, Sarasota and Dayton play later.

mth123
07-15-2007, 06:00 PM
Chat loses 1-0.

Ramon Ramirez 2IP, 3H, 2BB, 1K, 1 ER.
Pelland 1IP, 1BB, 2K
Guevara 1IP, 3K.

mth123
07-15-2007, 06:02 PM
Sarasota postponed.

BearcatShane
07-15-2007, 07:29 PM
Votto lines out hard to right.

BearcatShane
07-15-2007, 07:35 PM
6 up 6 down for Phil Dumatrait.

BearcatShane
07-15-2007, 07:40 PM
Bruce K's but the ball gets away and Bruce is on first.

BearcatShane
07-15-2007, 07:42 PM
Miley came out and argued that the Ball hit Bruce and the umpire reversed the call. K for Bruce and he's not allowed first base.

captainmorgan07
07-15-2007, 07:47 PM
i knew miley would come back to bite us:bang:

CTA513
07-15-2007, 07:49 PM
Miley came out and argued that the Ball hit Bruce and the umpire reversed the call. K for Bruce and he's not allowed first base.

That same play happened yesterday with Belisle against Delgado and the Ump let Delgado keep hitting instead of calling him out.

OnBaseMachine
07-15-2007, 07:51 PM
Todd Frazier is 1-for-1 with a single.

Aronchis
07-15-2007, 08:05 PM
Bruce has looked a bit overmatched against AAA pitching but has not caved in which is nice to see. I wonder how much he will progress next year?

BearcatShane
07-15-2007, 08:11 PM
Bruce has looked a bit overmatched against AAA pitching but has not caved in which is nice to see. I wonder how much he will progress next year?



I truely believe if Jay Bruce gets 120 at bats at AAA this year he'll hit over .300.

Chi-Town Red
07-15-2007, 08:12 PM
6 up 6 down for Phil Dumatrait.I like it:thumbup:

Aronchis
07-15-2007, 08:15 PM
I truely believe if Jay Bruce gets 120 at bats at AAA this year he'll hit over .300.

Right now he profiles to hit in the 250-260 range in AAA. 300-310 in AA in about 250ab's.

BearcatShane
07-15-2007, 08:20 PM
Right now he profiles to hit in the 250-260 range in AAA. 300-310 in AA in about 250ab's.

He's had 12 AAA at bats. How can you tell he's just going to hit in the 250-260 range?

reds44
07-15-2007, 08:24 PM
He's had 12 AAA at bats. How can you tell he's just going to hit in the 250-260 range?
How can you tell he is going to hit .300?

BearcatShane
07-15-2007, 08:25 PM
How can you tell he is going to hit .300?

I can't but I'd say the odds are he probably will. Is AAA pitching light years better than AA pitching?

OnBaseMachine
07-15-2007, 08:27 PM
Jay Bruce come into tonight with a .879 OPS in three games with Louisville. I wish all of our prospects were overmatched like that.

reds44
07-15-2007, 08:27 PM
I can't but I'd say the odds are he probably will. Is AAA pitching light years better than AA pitching?
It's a step up. Not as drastic as MLB is from AAA, but it's a step up.

reds44
07-15-2007, 08:29 PM
Jay Bruce come into tonight with a .879 OPS in three games with Louisville. I wish all of our prospects were overmatched like that.
Sweet, his OPS has dropped 71 points in 1 AB.

That just tells you how small of a sample size we are dealing with (including BA).

BearcatShane
07-15-2007, 08:29 PM
It's a step up. Not as drastic as MLB is from AAA, but it's a step up.


Yep, so if the pitching is just a little better in AAA his average should drop 70 points?

OnBaseMachine
07-15-2007, 08:30 PM
Jay Bruce draws a walk in his second plate appearance.

BearcatShane
07-15-2007, 08:30 PM
Bruce walks on 4 pitches.

OnBaseMachine
07-15-2007, 08:31 PM
Sweet, his OPS has dropped 71 points in 1 AB.

That just tells you how small of a sample size we are dealing with (including BA).

Yep, which is why we shouldn't be calling him overmatched now should we?

Chi-Town Red
07-15-2007, 08:31 PM
let Bruce play about 20 games...we can better assess then

reds44
07-15-2007, 08:31 PM
Yep, so if the pitching is just a little better in AAA his average should drop 70 points?
I didn't say he would hit .250, but I also didn't say he would hit .300.

If he hits .280 in AAA it would be a success this year.

reds44
07-15-2007, 08:32 PM
Yep, which is why we shouldn't be calling him overmatched now should we?
Did I say he was?

Bruce walked in his 2nd AB, btw. His OPS is up to .857 now, lol.

Aronchis
07-15-2007, 08:34 PM
Yep, which is why we shouldn't be calling him overmatched now should we?

For his level? Sure, he is overmatched. Jay could play in the MLB and hit 230 right now. That doesn't mean we want that.

He still has some adjustments to make before he can hit top level pitching at a 300 or better clip.

I doubt he is like Homer Bailey and stagnates in AA for a year.

OnBaseMachine
07-15-2007, 08:34 PM
Dayton is scoreless in the second inning. Drew Stubbs singled in his first atbat.

Alexander Smit: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 K

BearcatShane
07-15-2007, 08:35 PM
Alright, lets wait til he has 50 AAA at bats to even discuss this. I bet he'll be hitting over .300 by then though.

mth123
07-15-2007, 08:43 PM
Dayton is scoreless in the second inning. Drew Stubbs singled in his first atbat.

Alexander Smit: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 K

Call it merely a hunch, but I think this Smit kid is going to end up a steal a la Brandon Phillips or Josh Hamilton. It will probably take a while, lets call it a delayed steal.

Smit and Pelland are two power lefties who could be dominant at the end of games if they can find any consistency.

Blue
07-15-2007, 08:44 PM
Right now he profiles to hit in the 250-260 range in AAA. 300-310 in AA in about 250ab's.

Seriously, how did you come up with this? I've got a guess.

OnBaseMachine
07-15-2007, 08:53 PM
Smit: 3 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 4 K

OnBaseMachine
07-15-2007, 08:56 PM
Stubbs is 2-for-2 with two singles.

BearcatShane
07-15-2007, 09:03 PM
Votto K's. He's got 1 hit in his last 21 at bats.

OnBaseMachine
07-15-2007, 09:05 PM
According to Gameday, Bruce flied out to the wall in LCF.

BearcatShane
07-15-2007, 09:05 PM
Bruce hits it deep to left but caught.

Caveat Emperor
07-15-2007, 09:42 PM
Alright, lets wait til he has 50 AAA at bats to even discuss this. I bet he'll be hitting over .300 by then though.

I know everyone is jumping down A's throat for his comment, but lets be reasonable about Jay Bruce -- he's jumped from A+ to AA to AAA within the span of a year. I think you'd have to be a loon to think he wouldn't be a little overmatched at this level right now.

Even if he ends the season in AAA hitting .250-.260, the amount of progress he's made forward should really prepare him well for another breakout year next year.

No shame at all in any of this.

Chi-Town Red
07-15-2007, 09:48 PM
hes jumped from A to AAA in about a month...give him a little time

dougdirt
07-15-2007, 09:54 PM
LOL.... you guys do know that Jay is a 3-3 night away from hitting .375 in AAA right? We seriously aren't having this dicussion are we?

Redmachine2003
07-15-2007, 09:57 PM
Bruce looks like he is holding his own at AAA. Couple of strike outs and a couple of walks, solid contact on most of the balls he put into play. I say leave him at AAA the rest of the year. If the Reds trade Jr and Dunn they are going to need him in the outfield next year not in AAA next year.

Chi-Town Red
07-15-2007, 10:07 PM
sept call up for sure

SMcGavin
07-15-2007, 10:27 PM
Call it merely a hunch, but I think this Smit kid is going to end up a steal a la Brandon Phillips or Josh Hamilton. It will probably take a while, lets call it a delayed steal.

Sorry to hijack the Jay Bruce batting average argument but I agree. Everything I have read about the kid sounds very promising. Maybe not on the level of BP or Hamilton but I think this guy will help the Reds sometime down the road.

BigRed07
07-15-2007, 11:04 PM
Mr. Phipps does it again. 3 run walk off bomb. Dragons win 3-2!!!!!!!

dougdirt
07-15-2007, 11:04 PM
Denis Phipps is on fire lately. Absolutely crushing the baseball.

11larkin11
07-15-2007, 11:49 PM
A clutch 9th inning performer?

Bring him up now for Moeller, let him hit in the 9th inning only.

Mario-Rijo
07-16-2007, 12:16 AM
Mr. Phipps does it again. 3 run walk off bomb. Dragons win 3-2!!!!!!!

Daggonnit!!!! I was at the game, got there a tad late (missed the 1st inning). My brother was driving and he wanted to leave early so when the lights went out (top 8) we went ahead and left, the Dragons hadn't done much of anything all night (sans Stubbs and the pitching and Def) and I told him we would regret it. Man that stinks!! Next time I'm driving!

Anyhow Smit looked solid, but was only hitting 87 max on the stadium radar (Again, I did miss the 1st).

Stubbsy was hitting the ball hard all night, and man that kid is big. The LH they were opposing Zach Phillips was in a groove all 7 IP giving up only 4 hits. He also had a nice pick off move and the baserunners were fooled completely all night (as was I, sitting down the 1st base line in perfect position to see it) again sans Drew Stubbs he seemed to p/u his move to 1st pretty quick but not enough to get a great jump. I finally p/u it up (I think) about the 5th inning (head movement) and I saw all of his moves so take that FWIW.

Marcos Mateo was throwing about the hardest right around 91 (I think I saw one at 93) and down to around 74.

All in all it was relatively uneventful, and of course as I knew it would be until the lights went out in Dayton and I left. :(

SMcGavin
07-16-2007, 12:30 AM
Anyhow Smit looked solid, but was only hitting 87 max on the stadium radar (Again, I did miss the 1st).



Thanks for the report! Somebody was speculating on another thread that Smit's poor numbers this season may be due to injury - this seems like more evidence for that theory. The articles I read about him had his fastball in the 92-94 range.

Prf15
07-16-2007, 12:51 PM
I will be following Smit closely to see if he could get back to the way he was when he was a top prospect. He throws left handed and is still young so he has a shot.

Cooper
07-16-2007, 05:41 PM
I thought Smit was hurt. I just can't see how his numbers would go that far south by just moving up 1 league. It's not that big of a jump for the numbers to take that far of a tumble. I have nothing but the numbers to base it on. Maybe the kid is fine.