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View Full Version : Trade Joey Votto?



texasdave
07-16-2007, 01:09 PM
On the major league roster the Reds currently have three players holding down the corner OF/1B positions. (Griffey, Dunn and Hatteberg) But with Joey Votto and Jay Bruce knocking on the door that is soon about to change. You can't plug a five-player peg into a three-position hole leaving the Reds with a surplus. This surplus is good for the Reds' organization. It gives them options. Trading one or more of these players is a reasonable option. I think ideally trading two of them is the way to go. An easy choice would be to deal away Scott Hatteberg. He is older and his value likely will never be higher. But who should be the second choice? I would find it very difficult to get rid of Jay Bruce. IMO his ceiling is simply too high. That leaves Griffey, Dunn and Votto. Now if I remember correctly the lesson to be learned from Moneyball is to take advantage of what is over-valued and under-valued in the ballplayer market place. The trend recently seems to be that top prospects are becoming over-valued. Teams seem to be very reluctant to give up their top prospects; so one would think that if a top-20 prospect was dangled there would be great interest in that prospect. This interest could likely drive up the return nicely. Couple this with the fact that there will be clubs willing to move proven talent for some level of salary relief, and WK would be smart to dangle Joey V. and see what sort of arms he could get in return. Then when Jay Bruce arrives in Cincinnati either Griffey or Dunn could be moved to first. And we all live happily ever after. :)

joshnky
07-16-2007, 01:17 PM
To begin with I would be shocked if this happened because not only does the market over value prospests so do the Reds (and sometimes the market is correct). However, if the Reds were able to get a Dunn or Griffey-like return for Votto, meaning a couple major league ready arms (which I think is unrealistic), then its a great deal. However, the converse of the argument that you should trade whats currently valued (prospects) is that what you will want in return is also valued, meaning prospects.

I'm not sure this line of reasoning works well because there is a reason why prospects and pitching are valued so highly. Its because they're either cheap with high risk/reward or they're rare in the case of quality pitching.

George Anderson
07-16-2007, 01:17 PM
I am from the school of thought that no one in this organization is untouchable if the return is right. However the return on Votto better be amazingly good because I have heard nothing but good things about this kid. Personally i would rather see him up on the Reds soon and lets see just how good or potentially good he may be!!

The Snow Chief
07-16-2007, 01:51 PM
No. We must keep good young talent. I would want to trade Griffey before Votto. The deal would have to be amazing in terms of young star prospects for me to want to part withHarang, Bailey, Cueto, Hamilton, Phillips, Votto, or Bruce. With the possible exception of Edwin, everyone else would be on the trade market.

Degenerate39
07-16-2007, 02:22 PM
Why would they trade Votto when they have two old guys at first base? I think Hatte and Conine's contracts are up after this year (Not sure though). Keep the young guys trade the old.

kaldaniels
07-16-2007, 02:29 PM
Why would they trade Votto when they have two old guys at first base? I think Hatte and Conine's contracts are up after this year (Not sure though). Keep the young guys trade the old.

Did you not read the post...he is assuming the Reds dump Hatt and Conine. Leaving them with Bruce,Jr,Dunn in the corner OF and 1B. Leaving Freel and Hammy in CF. Give the OP a break.

Degenerate39
07-16-2007, 02:34 PM
Did you not read the post...he is assuming the Reds dump Hatt and Conine. Leaving them with Bruce,Jr,Dunn in the corner OF and 1B. Leaving Freel and Hammy in CF. Give the OP a break.

No I didn't read the post I'm just saying.

forfreelin04
07-16-2007, 02:41 PM
Did you not read the post...he is assuming the Reds dump Hatt and Conine. Leaving them with Bruce,Jr,Dunn in the corner OF and 1B. Leaving Freel and Hammy in CF. Give the OP a break.
They have Bruce, Votto, Jr. Dunn and Hamilton. Too many lefties. The Reds record versus lefties is a atriocious because no one this side of B Phil has had their way with lefties. I think Dunn will be gone (that day I will be dancing in the streets... just a personal preference) I would like to see the Reds deal Dunn, Votto, Hatteburg, Conine, Weathers, Stanton, Loshe, Freel and Valentin in return for solid prospects and maybe a few spare parts. Use the freed up money to sign a free agent right handed first baseman with some serious pop. Thus next year lineup looks like this assuming Bruce arrives.(big if) Not to mention, theres the chance of getting some other prospects via trade for a bench or possible starting role depending on the return.

CF Hamilton
3b EDe
CF Griffey
1b FA
RF Bruce
2B Phillips
SS Gonzo
C Ross

AmarilloRed
07-16-2007, 04:49 PM
If you trade Joey Votto; why not trade Homer Bailey? I am trying to be patient but it is difficult. Joey Votto will be our first baseman the next 15-20 years, and who knows if Dunn or Griffey will be here when Bruce makes the Reds. I can understand if youwould trade Hatteberg or Conine, but I wouldn't trade Votto or Bailey under any circumstances

George Anderson
07-16-2007, 04:56 PM
Joey Votto will be our first baseman the next 15-20 years

In the early 80's, myself and many others had no doubt that Paul Householder would be the next Reds star right fielder for the next 15-20 years, and we know how that panned out.

I am not advocating trading Votto but to label this guy as an untouchable, a can't miss prospect, or the first baseman for the next 15-20 years is just a tad bit premature.

AmarilloRed
07-16-2007, 05:10 PM
In the early 80's, myself and many others had no doubt that Paul Householder would be the next Reds star right fielder for the next 15-20 years, and we know how that panned out.

I am not advocating trading Votto but to label this guy as an untouchable, a can't miss prospect, or the first baseman for the next 15-20 years is just a tad bit premature.

I may have overstated my case a bit. However, I don't see any reasonable case where a trade of Votto should be contemplated. I think both he and Bruce can be a important part of the Reds offense for a long time in the years to come. It is true that you never know how any prospect will do at the major league level. However, unless you are one player away from making the playoffs, you should never trade any of your top prospects for an unknown return. I would react the same way if anyone suggested trading Homer Bailey or Jay Bruce. Votto will not be as good as either of them, but he will most likely be a significant upgrade over Hatteberg. I also don't think suggesting putting Griffey or Dunn at first bas makes a lot of sense.

joshnky
07-16-2007, 05:12 PM
Joey Votto will be our first baseman the next 15-20 years, and who knows if Dunn or Griffey will be here when Bruce makes the Reds.

Wow, someone is very optimistic. The chances that Votto is still a Red in 15 years is virtually nill. We have no idea how Votto will do in the big leagues much like we don't know how long Dunn or Griffey will be here. I contest that if you could get the same return for Votto that you could for Dunn, you trade Votto. I believe that is what the original poster was suggesting. You capitalize on the players that might be overvalued. Dunn is a proven (albeit expensive) quantity whereas Votto has a huge risk/reward. If someone is willing to pay for him let them take on the risk. When considering Homer there is also a risk/reward situation; however, in his case the possible reward is far to great to relinquish the player. Elite pitchers are key to the success of a franchise (see Santana) and the only way to obtain them is through the draft or while they're still in the minors.

I want to wrap this up by saying that I don't believe anyone will give us a Dunn-like return for Votto and I hope we keep him. But he is far from untouchable.

AmarilloRed
07-16-2007, 05:34 PM
I did say I overstated my case; however, he could very well be our first baseman 15 years from now. He is a major-league ready prospect who is set to come up to the Reds any day now. He is a very talented prospect,and you keep those. He is untouchable unless you can get a similary talented prospect in a trade who plays first base. We have no one else in our system at first base who has the ceiling Joey Votto has. I respect the poster, but his suggestion makes no sense.

texasdave
07-16-2007, 05:56 PM
Even if you trade Hatteberg you will still have four players (Griffey, Dunn, Votto and Bruce) for three positions (LF, RF and 1B). Most observers feel Votto is ready, and IMO Bruce is not too far behind. Do you then sit one on the bench? That seems a waste of talent. A trade is the likeliest solution. The names are interchangeable but the basic question becomes this: As the Reds move into 2008 and beyond do you like having Adam Dunn and the return on a trade of Votto; or do you prefer Joey Votto and the return on a trade of Dunn. Will another club give you more for six years control of the 'potential' that Votto brings, or, quite possibly, 2 months of the 'known value' that Dunn brings? Keep in mind that moving Dunn will give the team some payroll flexibility. And payflex is nice. But after watching this team over the years it appears to me that payflex is a tease. It holds more promise than it delivers. How many big-time free agents have the Reds acquired over the years? Wasn't the Kearns-Lopez trade supposed to give Cincinnati some payflex this past winter? How did that work out? Maybe that is the fault of the GM and maybe not. To me the bottom line is that Adam Dunn is young enough and proven enough that the Reds just may want to hold on to him. And if a trade of Joey Votto were to deliver more than a trade of Adam Dunn, that might be the way to go.

Degenerate39
07-16-2007, 07:07 PM
Even if you trade Hatteberg you will still have four players (Griffey, Dunn, Votto and Bruce) for three positions (LF, RF and 1B). Most observers feel Votto is ready, and IMO Bruce is not too far behind. Do you then sit one on the bench?

Why can't they try Bruce in center field?

In my opinion Bruce won't be up this year or maybe through most of next year. If were going to trade Griffey or Dunn why not trade Griffey? He's the older of the two hes the bigger name. How much longer is Griffey going to be around? Will he stay healthy for the remainder of his career? One thing about Dunn is he's most likely going to stay healthy throughout the season and he's going to hit you 40 home runs. He's not a question mark like Griff is health-wise.

DannyB
07-16-2007, 07:34 PM
They have Bruce, Votto, Jr. Dunn and Hamilton. Too many lefties. The Reds record versus lefties is a atriocious because no one this side of B Phil has had their way with lefties. I think Dunn will be gone (that day I will be dancing in the streets... just a personal preference) I would like to see the Reds deal Dunn, Votto, Hatteburg, Conine, Weathers, Stanton, Loshe, Freel and Valentin in return for solid prospects and maybe a few spare parts. Use the freed up money to sign a free agent right handed first baseman with some serious pop. Thus next year lineup looks like this assuming Bruce arrives.(big if) Not to mention, theres the chance of getting some other prospects via trade for a bench or possible starting role depending on the return.

CF Hamilton
3b EDe
CF Griffey
1b FA
RF Bruce
2B Phillips
SS Gonzo
C Ross

Did you ever think they are so bad against leftys because of the players that get the starts?
Freel? Hopper? Ross? Castro? They just dont hit.

DannyB
07-16-2007, 07:38 PM
Why would they trade Votto when they have two old guys at first base? I think Hatte and Conine's contracts are up after this year (Not sure though). Keep the young guys trade the old.

I think Conine got a 2yr deal. I didnt care for it at first but now I think he could be a good right handed bat off the bench.

REDblooded
07-16-2007, 07:56 PM
Has trading Votto to land Salty crossed anybody elses mind?

texasdave
07-16-2007, 08:44 PM
Why can't they try Bruce in center field?

Certainly Jay Bruce in CF is an option. But that simply pushes Josh Hamilton to a corner outfield spot and the Reds are in the same position as before.


In my opinion Bruce won't be up this year or maybe through most of next year.

Going into the 2007 season that would have been a pretty safe assumption, but I don't see why they would push Bruce up to Louisville so quickly only to have him spend most of 2008 in AAA. If he continues to hit as well as he has to date in his career why keep him down on the farm?


If were going to trade Griffey or Dunn why not trade Griffey? He's the older of the two hes the bigger name.

That is a possibility. I am just not sure how much KG brings in return due both to his age and his history of injuries. And just how many teams Junior would agree to go to? The Reds leverage does not seem to be as high in any potential trade of Griffey.

cacollinsmba
07-16-2007, 08:58 PM
Did you ever think they are so bad against leftys because of the players that get the starts?
Freel? Hopper? Ross? Castro? They just dont hit.

A great point. I get tired of hearing the "too many lefties" argument. Put the best players in, period.

I might add that, considering that GABP was built for a certain left handed hitter, this team might as well focus on building a team that is well suited for the stadium they play in, not one that looks nice on paper. As such, I see no reason to dump Dunn in order to pick up a right hander. Dunn has his faults but he will not be easily replaced.

Degenerate39
07-16-2007, 09:19 PM
That is a possibility. I am just not sure how much KG brings in return due both to his age and his history of injuries. And just how many teams Junior would agree to go to? The Reds leverage does not seem to be as high in any potential trade of Griffey.

They probably wouldn't get much for Junior but I am totally against trading a guy that's still in his 20's and gets 40s a year and he's relatively cheap for a power hitter.

AmarilloRed
07-16-2007, 09:55 PM
Even if you trade Hatteberg you will still have four players (Griffey, Dunn, Votto and Bruce) for three positions (LF, RF and 1B). Most observers feel Votto is ready, and IMO Bruce is not too far behind. Do you then sit one on the bench? That seems a waste of talent. A trade is the likeliest solution. The names are interchangeable but the basic question becomes this: As the Reds move into 2008 and beyond do you like having Adam Dunn and the return on a trade of Votto; or do you prefer Joey Votto and the return on a trade of Dunn. Will another club give you more for six years control of the 'potential' that Votto brings, or, quite possibly, 2 months of the 'known value' that Dunn brings? Keep in mind that moving Dunn will give the team some payroll flexibility. And payflex is nice. But after watching this team over the years it appears to me that payflex is a tease. It holds more promise than it delivers. How many big-time free agents have the Reds acquired over the years? Wasn't the Kearns-Lopez trade supposed to give Cincinnati some payflex this past winter? How did that work out? Maybe that is the fault of the GM and maybe not. To me the bottom line is that Adam Dunn is young enough and proven enough that the Reds just may want to hold on to him. And if a trade of Joey Votto were to deliver more than a trade of Adam Dunn, that might be the way to go.

I believe Bruce will be Griffey's heir in right, so Bruce will take over in right about the time Griffey's contract runs out.

forfreelin04
07-17-2007, 07:38 AM
Did you ever think they are so bad against leftys because of the players that get the starts?
Freel? Hopper? Ross? Castro? They just dont hit.

Reds vs. left handed starters: 12-22
vs. right handed starters: 26-33


I'll add Conine to your list. Hence, the need for a good right handed bat. I never said it was a terrible thing to be overstocked with lefties. But I DO NOT want this team relying on Brandon Phillips and EdE for it's only source of right handed production.

The problem enlies in the fact both Dunn and Griff are EL stinko in late innings when a left hander is usually brought in to face them or against a closer type. Both the two are also not known for getting on base when the pitcher does throw strikes.
7th Inning and beyond AB AVG OBP SLG OPS

Adam Dunn 87 .225 .325 .353 .678
Ken Griffey Jr. 81 .202 .308 .315 .623

Who is our top performer 7th inning and late?

Scott Hatteberg 79 .316 .407 .506 .913


This jumps off the page. Hatteberg is our most disciplined hitter and the biggest contributor late in the game. WE NEED MORE OF THESE. I'm not saying we need three punch and judy hitters who hit singles. We just need someone who can have a professional at bat late in the game! I would prefer it to be a right handed bat to minimize the struggle between lefty lefty in the late innings.

Kc61
07-17-2007, 12:29 PM
Reds vs. left handed starters: 12-22
vs. right handed starters: 26-33


I'll add Conine to your list. Hence, the need for a good right handed bat. I never said it was a terrible thing to be overstocked with lefties. But I DO NOT want this team relying on Brandon Phillips and EdE for it's only source of right handed production.

We just need someone who can have a professional at bat late in the game! I would prefer it to be a right handed bat to minimize the struggle between lefty lefty in the late innings.

You need some balance in the lineup; the Reds are overly left handed. They don't need many right handed bats. They need one or two potent right handed bats.

Of the three outfield positions and first base, at least one of those players must be a righty who can hit and has power. You can't keep Griffey, Dunn, Bruce, Votto, Hamilton. Something has to change or the lineup will out of balance.

Longer term, Bruce, Hamilton and Votto from the left side. Phillips, EE, and a major righty bat from the right side. That's more like it. Or, if you keep Dunn, one of the other lefties would be moved.

BRM
07-17-2007, 12:33 PM
I think Conine got a 2yr deal. I didnt care for it at first but now I think he could be a good right handed bat off the bench.

Conine is only signed through 2007.

mound_patrol
07-17-2007, 02:21 PM
I dont care if our entire Of and 1B is lefthanded as long as they are the best 4 players for those 4 spots.

As for trading Votto I dont like the idea of trading a prospect for a prospect, but this team is in need for pitchers more than they are for firstbaseman. I would trade Votto if he was the guy the made the deal, but I'm not looking to trade him.

WebScorpion
07-19-2007, 02:33 PM
Has trading Votto to land Salty crossed anybody elses mind?

That's about the only time I'd trade a prospect...for a more proven prospect in an area of need for our ML team. So yeah, I'd do that straight up, (Votto - Salty,) but only after exploring options in the Hatteburg + prospect X for Salty arena. Ideally, I'd like to have Votto, Dunn, Hamilton, Griffey, and Salty all on the 2008 Reds, but you usually have to give up value to receive value.

Degenerate39
07-19-2007, 02:37 PM
Edit: Wrong thread