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View Full Version : Are the Reds hurting Bailey's development



AmarilloRed
07-16-2007, 04:05 PM
I am worried about this latest move keeping him down after the All-Star break. They have not had a good history of developing starting pitching, and it seems Homer was very upset about his demotion. I remember what happened when Ryan Wagner was sent down. I know Wagner had a bad delivery; still, part of his problem was mental and the same might happen to Bailey. I hope he can work on his off-speed stuff the rest of the month in AAA and come back a better pitcher. I think the Reds need to be very careful how they handle Homer Bailey.

joshnky
07-16-2007, 04:24 PM
Unless he gets blasted I think Homer will be back up the next time they can squeeze him into the rotation without messing up the other pitcher's schedules. How could this hurt his development? If he truly has what it takes be an elite pitcher then he will hold up fine mentally. If he doesn't then he was going to fall apart at some point because adversity is inevitable. I would like to see Homer pitch for the Reds but he still has some learning to do and clearly could use some work in AAA. The only reason I can see to bring him up would be the advantage of having Pole coach him. However, given the performance of some of our pitchers I don't know that he is that much better.

I will add that if he reverts to form and dominates AAA over the next couple starts then he should be brought back up. But if he can't get AAA batters out anymore then there is no reason to let big league players hammer him.

mbgrayson
07-17-2007, 03:01 PM
Homer pitches tonight against the Durham Bulls. There has been some discussion about a drop in Homer's velocity. I wonder if he is trying to pitch through an injury.

For whatever reason, Bailey isn't striking out batters in the majors at anywhere near his AAA rate.

Homer has struck out 55 in 61.2 innings in Louisville. That is a 8.03 K/9 rate.
In Cincinnati, he has struck out 15 in 28.1 innings. That is a 4.76 K/9 rate.
Last year at both Chatanooga and Sarasota, Homer had above a 9 K/9 rate.

Other young pitchers may have some drop-off going from AAA to MLB, but not almost in half.
For example, Tim Licecum of the Giants. In AAA this year, he struck out 46 in 31 innings. (K/9 rate of 13.36!). With the Giants, he has struck out 87 in 78 innings(K/9 of 10.04).

Phil Hughes; minors 26 ks in 21 innings, Yankees 11 ks in 10.2 innings.
Andrew Miller; minors 52 Ks in 72 IP, Tigers 31 Ks in 40 IP.
Yovani Gallardo; minors 110 Ks in 77.2 IP, Brewers 27 Ks in 28.1 IP.

In fact, Homer's 4.76 K/9 rate is alarmingly low. For him to be a "#1" starter, he is going to have to do better than that.

dougdirt
07-17-2007, 03:15 PM
I question the validity of Homers loss of veloctiy. Homers problem with strikeouts in the majors is simply he isn't getting the ball over the plate and major league hitters are more patient. Simple as that.

If he throws his pitches over the plate, he will be just fine.

Aronchis
07-17-2007, 03:32 PM
I remember his first inning against the Cards. Fastball between 94-97. Kept missing high, gave up a run. Either he needs to develope his other pitches or improve his control with his fastball to dominate in AAA. Both for the majors.

indy_dave00
07-17-2007, 03:33 PM
Homer needs to work thru whatever troubles he is going thru. Its his first time facing adversity , he'll be fine. Everyone who talks about him says he has the stuff and moxy to be a success I believe them.

As an old timer I remember when Mario Soto came up his first start was at Wrigley Field first game of a double headder he threw like a 3 hit 1 run game, but struggled after that and was sent back down to find himself.

He made 10 starts that first year was 2-6 with a 5.34 era , struck out only 44 in 60 innings after dominating at AAA. He was only 20. Took Mario a couple years to figure it out , at 23 he found it though and was a top pitcher until his arm gave out.

Bailey may struggle for the rest of the season , maybe even part of next but he's barely 21 success at the big league level seldom comes quickly to a pitcher that young. Patience is the key Bailey will work thru this and he and the Reds will be better for it.

mbgrayson
07-17-2007, 09:28 PM
Bailey tonight in Louisville:
5.2 innings, gave up 4 hits, 3 walks, 1 HR, 5 runs(2 earned), and struck out 4. Bats behind 8-1 in the 8th. Bailey in line for the loss. :(

Eric_Davis
07-17-2007, 10:30 PM
I question the validity of Homers loss of veloctiy. Homers problem with strikeouts in the majors is simply he isn't getting the ball over the plate and major league hitters are more patient. Simple as that.

If he throws his pitches over the plate, he will be just fine.

You can see where he's aggressive one minute and timid another. A player as good as Bailey is that has bad numbers is not indicative of poor performance, but just facing yet another challenge.

JLB5
07-19-2007, 04:42 PM
Bailey tonight in Louisville:
5.2 innings, gave up 4 hits, 3 walks, 1 HR, 5 runs(2 earned), and struck out 4. Bats behind 8-1 in the 8th. Bailey in line for the loss. :(

Looking through the game log, he had only given up 1 hit through 5. Got into a little trouble in the 6th, but some bad D (including his own throwing error) didn't help. Looks like he got pulled due to pitch count. Salmon couldn't close the door and the last 2 runs plated with him on the mound. I'd like to see Homer get the K's up, but he may be working on the secondary pitches so that may explain a little of what is going on down there. I noticed during Homer's last start for the Reds that his FB is more effective up in the zone and he seemed to be getting stronger as the game went on. I'm looking forward to his next go around up with the big club. He's had a couple of bad innings since being sent down, but he's not getting spanked all over the park or anything. He just needs to avoid those big innings.

M2
07-19-2007, 05:08 PM
The only thing that's hurting Bailey's development is the club pushing him to be ready before he is ready. He's got pitches to polish and a body to fill out. He's thrown a grand total of 135.1 IP in the upper minors and he probably needs something more like 300. He's never throw more than 138 IP in a season. He hasn't been around high A, AA or AAA long enough to allow hitters to adjust to him (and it's entirely possible they could). He can't put the ball where he wants it on a consistent basis and that's just begging for trouble in the majors.

Pitching development isn't for those who demand instant gratification. It's a long process, fraught with setbacks, requiring the franchise to show patience even it seems perfectly rational to jump a kid ahead. If Homer Bailey can stay healthy then maybe in another two years the Reds will have themselves a pitcher who can do something notable in the majors.

mth123
07-19-2007, 07:55 PM
He's got pitches to polish and a body to fill out.

I think this is the most overlooked factor when discussing Bailey. The guy is still maturing physically and hasn't thrown a full season starter's load at any point in his career to this point. When a kid like him is still filling out physically, its more dangerous to jump his workload in anything other than a gradual manner. For Bailey to get where he is going he needs to add about 30 Innings to what he did last year as a safe progression. Any more increases the risk of injury and less may leave him short of being fully prepared (and leading to a jump that is too large next year which also risks injury). Bailey needs to stay on schedule and pitch his 170 innings this year while his body matures and his pitches are refined in the process. The primary task is building his workload IMO, and that is much more easily controlled in AAA than in the big leagues. He simply is not ready physically.

mbgrayson
07-19-2007, 09:47 PM
Homer pitches tonight against the Durham Bulls. There has been some discussion about a drop in Homer's velocity. I wonder if he is trying to pitch through an injury.

Unfortunately, I was right...from C. Trent:

"Homer Bailey was put on the minor league DL with a strained right groin. It's the same injury that put him on the DL earlier this season."