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Patrick Bateman
07-19-2007, 12:36 AM
The most anticipated thread in Redszone history has arrived! A thread entirely devoted to Drew Stubbs. Enjoy.

http://www.conorglassey.com/Blog/content/binary/stubbs_drew.jpg

http://daytondragons.com.ismmedia.com/ISM3/thumbcache/e3113e70239c541de2f83dd5142e1d11.200.jpg

Full Name: Andrew Robert Stubbs
Born: 10/04/1984
Birthplace: Texarkana, TX
College: U Texas Austin
Height: 6' 4"
Weight: 200
Bats: R
Throws: R


Scouting Report from brewersfan.net:

Stubbs was a third round pick of the Houston Astros in the 2003 draft. He turned down seven figures to attend the University of Texas, and he burst onto the scene immediately with an impressive season for the Longhorns on his way to being named a freshman All-American. His early success prompted him to be named to Team USA the summer after his freshman season, where he hit .319. He also played for Team USA during the summer of 2005. He continued to produced during his sophomore season, hitting .311 with 35 extra base hits and swiping 32 bags in 38 attempts. He is a true yet rare five-tool athlete that blends an exciting combination of power and speed. He makes plays look effortlessly in centerfield, and is a threat on the basepaths every time he reaches. He also has considerable power potential, with the wheels to stretch doubles into triples. In high school, he lettered in baseball, football, basketball and track. The one area he will need to improve in is his strike zone discipline. He has walked 60 times in his 549 collegiate at-bats, but he has also struck out an alarming 146 times. He has drawn comparisons to Rocco Baldelli and Jeff Franceour given his amazing natural talents and skills, and projects to go very high in the draft next June.

http://www.brewerfan.net/ViewAmateurPlayerProfile.do?playerId=498&draftId=4

Patrick Bateman
07-19-2007, 12:40 AM
Prospect Q and A from Baseball America:

By David Laurila
March 22, 2007

When the Reds took Drew Stubbs with the eighth overall pick in the 2006 draft, they knew they were getting a player with a high ceiling. The 6-foot-4, 200-pound University of Texas product went into the draft rated as the best athlete, best defensive player, second-fastest base runner, and third-best power hitter among collegians. The question is whether that resume will translate into success at the big league level.

A righthanded-hitter, Stubbs showed some holes in his short-season debut, hitting only .252 while striking out 64 times in 210 at-bats. Scouts have voiced concerns about the length of his swing and his ability to handle breaking pitches. But no one doubts the 22-year-old's tools and makeup. If he can make the necessary adjustments and put everything together, Drew Stubbs should be roaming center field in Great American Ballpark within a few years.

Baseball America: Give us a scouting report on Drew Stubbs the baseball player.

Drew Stubbs: My game is based around speed, both offensively and defensively. I use my speed to be a force on defense, running down balls in the gaps. On offense, I'm a combination speed/power guy who can play small-ball if I have to.

BA: Give us a scouting report on Drew Stubbs the person.

DS: I look at myself as laid-back and genuine; a "What you see is what you get" kind of guy. I believe in putting the team ahead of personal success. I'm proud of what we were able to accomplish at Texas, winning a national championship and going to the finals the previous year.

BA: Scouting reports say that your swing is a little long. Do you agree with that?

DS: You know, I don't consider it to be long. Growing up, it's always been pretty compact in my opinion. I have struck out a bit too much, and I think my K totals influence that perception. People draw the conclusion that if you strike out a lot, your swing must be long. I don't think it is.

BA: Scouts also say you have trouble with breaking balls. Do you think that's pitch-recognition, or something else?

DS: I think that's any young hitter's problem. At the pro level you're seeing elite pitchers, and it''s a constant period of making adjustments. You see it in the big leagues when guys are in their first years. As you gain experience and get more repetitions, you should get better.

BA: Have your coaches asked you to make any mechanical adjustments?

DS: Only minor details with my swing. They want me to work on my load -- keeping my hands back and getting better separation to help me to track balls better.

BA: Three major components of hitting are your load, your hands, and your head. Which do you consider the most important?

DS: First and foremost is your head. The bottom line is that you need to keep your eyes on the ball. You don't want your head moving.

BA: You possess a good combination of speed and power. Are you more likely to hit 40 home runs or steal 40 bases?

DS: I'd say that…I think steal 40 bases. Consistent power is developed, but speed and an ability to steal bases comes earlier in your career. If I'm given an opportunity to run, I'll steal some bases.

BA: What is the strong suit of your running game?

DS: I'd say it's my explosiveness. The key to stealing bases is getting a good jump, and I work on that a lot. When I don't get a good jump, my speed can compensate for that. I have a long, rangy stride when I get going.

BA: You've been compared to a young Dale Murphy. What are your thoughts on that, and if you could be compared to anyone, who would it be?

DS: It's a great compliment, obviously. He was one of the best players of his era. But if I had to compare myself to someone, I'd say maybe Torii Hunter. He's a big, athletic outfielder who can change the game with his defense. That's the level I want to get to.

BA: How would you assess where your defensive game is right now? What are your strengths and weaknesses?

DS: I think I'm doing pretty well. Having played at Texas, I was able to take my game to the next level because of good coaching and the level of competition. I think my strengths are an ability to get good jumps and track down balls. Not everyone is blessed with my speed, and I feel fortunate that I possess it. There's always room for improvement, but overall I think I'm fundamentally sound.

BA: You were drafted out of high school by the Rangers and were offered a $900,000 contract as a third-round pick, but the commissioner's office influenced them not to sign you at that figure. In retrospect, was that a good thing or a bad thing?

DS: At the time, I was definitely looking forward to getting my pro career going. And I think I could have been ready to go. I could have held my own. That said, college really helped me, both on and off the field. Now that I have that experience I'm kind of glad it happened the way it did.

BA: You did very well academically at the University of Texas. Tell us about that.

DS: You see a lot of guys who are in college just to play sports, but I've always enjoyed learning. What you gain from an education really helps you as you go along in life. I guess I'm an intellectual. I have an open mind, and I like to think.

BA: I understand that you play the piano.

DS: Yes. I took eight or 10 years of lessons, and played a little classical and some more contemporary stuff. I don't have much of a chance to play now, though. I lack the time, plus I can't exactly bring the piano with me on the road.

BA: You've also enjoyed the intellectual exercise of bungee jumping.

DS: Yeah, I did that a few times when I was a little younger. It was something fun to do, but I probably won't be doing it again anytime soon. Still, it's really not that dangerous. It's not cliff diving or anything like that.

BA: Any final thoughts?

DS: Just that right now baseball is first and foremost in my life. It's what I've always wanted to do, and I'd like to play for a long time. I hope I never have to get a real job.


http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/features/263542.html

Patrick Bateman
07-19-2007, 01:02 AM
MiLB Player Card:

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Drew%2520Stubbs&pos=OF&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=453211 (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Drew%2520Stubbs&pos=OF&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=453211)


Current Season Stats:


Team League AVG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO SB CS OBP SLG OPS

DAY MID .257 87 335 62 86 17 2 8 26 131 53 97 20 12 .364 .391 .755


Split Stats:


Entire Season AVG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OBP SLG OPS

vs Left .235 119 17 28 2 1 1 5 16 36 8 5 . 326 .294 .620
vs Right .269 216 45 58 15 1 7 21 37 61 12 7 .384 .444 .828
Home Games .296 48 186 36 55 14 2 8 18 27 50 13 4 .389 .522 .910
Away Games .208 39 149 26 31 3 0 0 8 26 47 7 8 .333 .228 .562
Day Games .316 15 57 13 18 2 0 2 3 5 13 3 3 .381 .456 .837
Night Games .245 72 278 49 68 15 2 6 23 48 84 17 9 .361 .378 .738
On Grass .257 87 335 62 86 17 2 8 26 53 97 20 12 .364 .391 .755
April .275 19 80 14 22 2 0 2 10 5 25 5 3 .322 .375 .697
May .272 32 114 27 31 8 0 4 9 23 32 6 4 .403 .447 .850
June .185 23 92 9 17 2 0 0 3 10 25 5 2 .272 .207 .478
July .327 13 49 12 16 5 2 2 4 15 15 4 3 .484 .633 1.117
Pre All-Star .253 65 249 47 63 11 0 6 21 34 73 14 9 .348 .369 .718
Post All-Star .267 22 86 15 23 6 2 2 5 19 24 6 3 .406 .453 .859
Bases Empty .278 212 6 59 12 2 6 6 28 61 0 0 .368 .439 .806
Runners On .220 123 56 27 5 0 2 20 25 36 20 12 .358 .309 .667
Scoring Position .197 76 52 15 1 0 0 16 16 23 5 1 .340 .211 .551



Last 10 games:


Date OPP AVG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS

Jul 05 GLL .000 3 4 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 2 0
Jul 06 GLL .400 5 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
Jul 07 @SOU .333 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Jul 09 @SOU .000 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0
Jul 13 CLI .250 4 2 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0
Jul 14 CLI .333 3 1 1 0 0 1 1 2 1 0 0
Jul 15 CLI .500 4 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Jul 16 CLI .333 3 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0
Jul 17 CED .500 4 1 2 2 0 0 0 1 1 1 0
Jul 17 CED .000 4 1 2 2 0 0 0 1 1 1 0
Jul 18 CED .500 4 1 2 0 1 1 1 0 2 0 0

Totals .324 37 11 12 5 1 2 2 10 10 3 2

Patrick Bateman
07-19-2007, 01:43 AM
Some deeper stats on Stubbs:

Hit Chart:

http://firstinning.com/i/chart/453211-2007-a-hc.gif


Extended Stats:


Year Age Team PA AB ISOP BB% K% BABIP GB% LD% RC RC/27 wOBA
2007 22 A Dayton 390 331 .121 13.8% 24.4% .336 45% 14% 46 4.8 .333

Extended Splits:


Split PA AB ISOP HR BB% K% BABIP GB% LD% AVG OBP SLG wOBA
April 87 80 .100 2 5.7% 28.7% .377 53% 8% .275 .322 .375 .310
May 139 114 .175 4 16.5% 23.0% .346 44% 19% .272 .403 .447 .380
June 104 92 .022 0 10.6% 24.0% .254 45% 12% .185 .272 .207 .223
July 60 45 .222 1 25.0% 21.7% .419 35% 13% .311 .483 .533 .447

AWAY 178 149 .020 0 15.2% 26.4% .304 52% 11% .208 .333 .228 .272
HOME 212 182 .204 7 12.7% 22.6% .362 41% 16% .291 .387 .495 .384

http://firstinning.com/players/Drew-Stubbs-a/

Patrick Bateman
07-19-2007, 02:06 AM
Article from when Stubbs was drafted:

Reds select Texas' Stubbs with first pick
Longhorns outfielder second position player taken in draft

By Mark Sheldon / MLB.com

ST. LOUIS -- A third-round draft pick of the Astros in 2003, a bizarre set of circumstances delayed Drew Stubbs' professional baseball career from starting right out of high school.
Ultimately, the dream proved worth waiting for a little longer.

Stubbs became a star center fielder for the University of Texas and won a National Championship with the Longhorns last year. On Tuesday, the junior became a first-rounder in the 2006 First-Year Player Draft when the Reds selected him with the eighth overall pick.

"I'm very excited. It's a huge honor to be in the position I'm in right now," said Stubbs, who batted .342 with 12 home runs, 58 RBIs and 26 steals while starting all 62 of Texas' games this season.

Stubbs, 21, was the second position player taken overall. Scouting reports said that the 6-foot-4, 200-pounder was an athletic five-tool player with great speed and power that complemented his Gold Glove-caliber defensive ability.

Baseball America rated Stubbs as the best college athlete and best defensive player in this year's draft and the second fastest baserunner and third-best power hitter.

"[He] as all the tools you look for, plays at a top-flight program," Reds scouting director Chris Buckley said from Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati. "We're thrilled to have him. For me, he was the best athlete in the draft, so we're excited to have him with the eighth pick."

"He's a top-flight center fielder, he's got all the skills," general manager Wayne Krivsky said. "We're just real pleased to get him. I trusted Chris and his staff to do the right thing, and pick the best player in each round."

A four-sport athlete in high school, Stubbs said he was also recruited to play college football but was most passionate about playing baseball.

"Baseball was always my first love, and that's what I wanted to continue to do," he said.



Complete coverage >A native of Atlanta, Texas, Stubbs had agreed to receive $900,000 from his home-state Astros in 2003. Considered an abnormally high bonus for a third-round pick, Major League Baseball pressured the club to lower the amount and the club's offer was eventually rescinded.

So, Stubbs went to college instead.

"I was excited to go to school, but at the same time disappointed I didn't get to start my pro career," Stubbs said. "Deep down all along, I wanted to go to school. I really wanted the chance to get the college experience. If the money was right for me and family, what I was asking for was there on the table, and I would have had to take it and start pro ball.

"When it all fell through and I realized I was going to college, I was happy about it deep down. I realized it was probably the best thing."

It should prove to be a lucrative move. Cincinnati's first-round pick in 2005, outfielder Jay Bruce, received a $1.8 million bonus out of high school as the 12th overall selection.

Stubbs watched the draft on a computer at his apartment with family and three teammates, including corner outfielder Carson Kainer -- who was later taken in the 14th round by Cincinnati. When Stubbs' name was announced, it was a little anti-climatic because his advisor had already phoned him with the news a half-hour earlier.

Speculation had the Reds taking Stubbs if he was available and the two sides had already opened negotiations before Tuesday.

"I think I've been in their target for a couple of months now," Stubbs said. "I was looking to go as high as possible, and eighth with Cincinnati is definitely a very good spot for me. I was excited before the draft started when I found out it was going to happen."

Talking to reporters on a conference call from Austin, Stubbs said he expected to sign quickly.

"The way we've been talking recently, we pretty much came to an agreement that I wouldn't be difficult to sign if I was drafted," he said. "I'm not sure how quick the actually signing will take place. When it comes to negotiations, I'm think all that's pretty much ironed out and I won't be a problem to sign at all."

"Hopefully, it'll happen quickly," Buckley said. "The sooner we can get him signed, the sooner he can start working with our people."

Over his three-year collegiate career, Stubbs batted .317 and was a two-time member of the USA Baseball national team. Patience at the plate is one area that will need developing as a professional -- he had 60 strikeouts, compared to 41 walks in 2006, and 205 strikeouts over a 204-game college career.

"There's some [concern]," said Buckley. "But, every person drafted before him, I could throw rocks at. There are not many slam dunks in this stuff."

Stubbs, who will be assigned to rookie level Billings once signed, felt professional at-bats would make him more consistent.

"I don't consider myself a guy that's one of those big power hitters that's either going to hit a home run or strikeout," Stubbs said. "I think I'm more of a balanced hitter that can hit for average. My development over the next few years will cure a lot of those problems and I'm looking forward to improving in every aspect of the game."

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20060606&content_id=1491219&vkey=draft2006&fext=.jsp

mth123
07-19-2007, 05:59 AM
Wow. Good work AK.

Caveat Emperor
07-19-2007, 07:48 AM
Anyone want to theorize why his home/away split is so lopsided? I don't know much about park factors in low-A ball, but I imagine there's something worth investigating when he's hitting almost 100 points higher and OPS'ing close to 350 points higher at home vs. on the road.

RedLegsToday
07-19-2007, 08:01 AM
I've always wondered if some players just get more pumped up playing in front of a large crowd. The Dragons play to 8000+ every game and then they go on the road and play to 1000+. Maybe Drew just needs the attention? :-)

RedLegsToday
07-19-2007, 08:19 AM
Austin Kearns, how did you copy Drew's stats into those nice, neat tables?

BuckeyeRedleg
07-19-2007, 09:39 AM
Nice work, AK.

Jim
07-19-2007, 09:43 AM
Great post, Austin! I now know about 10x more about Stubbs than I did yesterday! I'm looking forward to seeing him in the Reds OF.

Patrick Bateman
07-19-2007, 11:29 AM
Wow. Good work AK.

Much appreciated everyone!




Austin Kearns, how did you copy Drew's stats into those nice, neat tables?

I just used the stats from MiLB and copied them into note pad, and then organized them by how I wanted them to show up on the screen, and then put 'CODE' tags around them when I put the organized stats into Redszone.

Patrick Bateman
07-19-2007, 08:10 PM
I found some interesting comentary about Stubbs in an interview done by Redleg Nation with Billings Mustangs General Manager Gary Roller:

RN: Let’s talk about Drew Stubbs. He seemed to struggle a little bit.

GR: He did.

RN: Any theories as to why?

GR: Talking to the coaching staff, defensively, they felt he could have played at a higher level even last year. He runs like the wind. He has tremendous instincts out in the outfield. He gets to everything. So, I think they felt defensively, he could have started higher than here. Offensively, they knew they were going to be challenged with him. They felt at Texas, a lot of his success came from the aluminum bat and they felt when he got here and you put the wood bat in his hand, he was going to struggle a little bit and he did. They were talking to him and they worked on some things in the fall and he made some strides in the Instructional League in the fall. They expect big things out of him, eventually. Whether that is going to be this year or next year, who knows? But they’re going to expect him to toe the line offensively at some point. I think it was an adjustment period for him offensively; defensively he was fine and one of the better players in the league defensively. But offensively, they found they could pound him inside with the hard stuff, and he struggled with it. And I think they worked on that all summer and I know they worked on that in the fall and hopefully he’s going to get that part ironed out because again, he’s a very quiet kid. He didn’t say much. But he’s a very nice kid, he’s very polite, very well mannered, he’s a professional. But you didn’t really know he was there.

RN: I would think that #1 draft pick thing kind of weighs heavily on you, then you begin to struggle a little bit and it becomes cyclical.

GR: Yeah, it does and I think you could see that at times with him that he was pressing and pushing. As much as they tried to tell him, “you know what, there is no pressure on you, Drew, just play the game the way you’ve always played the game and the numbers will take care of themselves”. As a human being, you can’t help but feel some of that pressure. And he pressed a little bit. Midway through the year, he got nicked a little bit, had a couple of injuries he had to deal with, then he had more of a major injury toward the end of the year that he had to deal with. All that thrown in there, he still, I would say and I think they (the Reds) would say, he had a successful year. Just when you put the label on someone as the #1 pick, you think that they’re Superman and you expect very high numbers out of some of these guys and they’re human like you and I are. And they have to go through everything like you and I do. On top of that the pressure of being the #1 pick. Sometimes it doesn’t always pan out, but I think Drew felt he had a successful year. Yeah, he would have liked his numbers to have been better. I know the Reds would have liked his numbers to have been better. But I think they’re very happy with him.

http://redlegnation.com/2007/02/16/rln-exclusive-interview-with-gary-roller-gm-of-the-billings-mustangs/

Also for reference sake here's his numbers from 2006:


Team League AVG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO SB CS OBP SLG OPS

BIL PIO .252 56 210 39 53 7 3 6 24 84 32 64 19 4 .368 .400 .768

Patrick Bateman
07-19-2007, 08:13 PM
Anyone want to theorize why his home/away split is so lopsided? I don't know much about park factors in low-A ball, but I imagine there's something worth investigating when he's hitting almost 100 points higher and OPS'ing close to 350 points higher at home vs. on the road.

Well Dayton is a hitters park. I don't currently have the numbers in front of me, but Dayton is definitely a hitters environment compared to the rest of the league.

However, the factors are not nearly that strong to make up for such a difference in his splits. I believe his numbers are inflated to a degree, but not to the point that his home/road splits would have you believe.

I'm guessing the main reason is just due to randomness.

dougdirt
07-19-2007, 08:51 PM
Well Dayton is a hitters park. I don't currently have the numbers in front of me, but Dayton is definitely a hitters environment compared to the rest of the league.

However, the factors are not nearly that strong to make up for such a difference in his splits. I believe his numbers are inflated to a degree, but not to the point that his home/road splits would have you believe.

I'm guessing the main reason is just due to randomness.

Dayton is not playing to much of a hitter park outside of being favorable to the HR this year.

http://firstinning.com/pf/?type=basic&lg=MIDW&min=250&season=2007

Patrick Bateman
07-19-2007, 08:55 PM
Dayton is not playing to much of a hitter park outside of being favorable to the HR this year.

http://firstinning.com/pf/?type=basic&lg=MIDW&min=250&season=2007

Ya, none of the factors are too extreme there, but they do favour the hitter a little bit.

As I said, these factors are not nearly extreme enough to make a giant difference in Stubb's numbers. His crazy splits are more due to being random than anything.

Patrick Bateman
07-23-2007, 09:06 PM
Last 5 games from Stubbs:


Date OPP AVG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS

Jul 19 CED .250 4 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 3 0 0
Jul 20 CED .000 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0
Jul 21 @KCC .500 4 2 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
Jul 22 @KCC .750 4 0 3 2 0 0 1 0 1 0 1
Jul 23 @KCC .250 4 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0

He's continued the hot streak. He's even mixing in some doubles. His hot July has pushed his line to .369/.401/.770.

The OBP is nice, but it would be nice if Stubbs went on a bit of a homer binge to get his SLG into the .430 range.

dougdirt
07-23-2007, 09:56 PM
Granted we can never take months out of guys numbers, but if we take out Drews beyong horrible June his numbers would look like this: .290/.399/.479 for an OPS of .878 (not counting todays numbers). Its actually rather promising to look at it like that.

Patrick Bateman
07-31-2007, 11:55 PM
Last 6 games from Stubbs:


Date OPP AVG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS

Jul 24 @KCC .000 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0
Jul 26 @PEO .000 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0
Jul 27 @PEO .250 4 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 0
Jul 28 @PEO .400 5 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
Jul 29 @PEO .250 4 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0
Jul 31 WIS .000 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0

After his major hot streak Stubbs has gone in another K binge. I expect him to continue being pretty inconsistent. He still clearly hasn't made enough strides to really merit consideration for a move up to Sarasota until next season.

Current season stats:



Team League AVG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO SB CS OBP SLG OPS
DAY MID .257 98 378 68 97 21 2 8 28 146 58 115 21 13 .362 .386 .748

Blitz Dorsey
08-01-2007, 12:06 AM
Let's remember this is a former three-year college player who is currently playing in low-A ball. I could live with his numbers if he was at AA or maybe even high-A like a player his age and experience (not to mention draft position) should be.

Sorry, nothing against the young man personally, but we're here to talk baseball and be real about it. This was a horrible pick IMO. I thought it was bad at the time (with Lincecum sitting right there) but i was wrong. It wasn't bad, it was horrible. At this point, I am hoping he can develop into a solid No. 4 OF for us in a couple years, someone who gets some spot starts against lefties. And that is really a stretch IMO. And it's very low expectations for a top 10 overall pick of the draft. Yes, we needed a right-handed hitting OF and we still do. Hamilton and Bruce are 2/3 of the OF of the future and they need a righty to go with them. But you don't draft based on need in MLB and that's what I think the Reds did with Stubbs. In no way was he the best player available, or even close. And yes, it's easy to say that almost 14 months removed from the draft, but I never did like that pick.

All that said, go out and prove me wrong Drew. Of course I will be rooting for him like he's my son as soon as he puts that Reds uniform on. And I'm sure he'll get his shot as a former first-rounder. But if he's ever a full-time starter, I will be shocked.

Patrick Bateman
08-01-2007, 12:12 AM
With all do respect, this discussion has really happened a million times here. It was a bad pick. Lincecum was the choice. 90% of Redszone said so at the time.

I was hoping this thread could be more about Drew Stubbs' progress rather than guys the Reds should have had instead of Drew Stubbs. But I definitely do agree that Stubbs is not where he needs to be. He has a very long road to go as a hitter.

Edd Roush
08-01-2007, 08:32 AM
For those who know how to find these stats easily, how did Lincecum's bonus compare to Stubbs'? Thanks.

camisadelgolf
08-01-2007, 09:52 AM
Lincecum signed for $2.025M, and Stubbs signed for $2M. Cue the people who will claim the Reds' intention was signing the cheaper guy . . .

IT'S A STUBBS/LINCECUM DISCUSSION! THE ORGANIZATION IS IN SUCH DESPAIR!

bucksfan2
08-01-2007, 10:41 AM
Let's remember this is a former three-year college player who is currently playing in low-A ball. I could live with his numbers if he was at AA or maybe even high-A like a player his age and experience (not to mention draft position) should be.

Sorry, nothing against the young man personally, but we're here to talk baseball and be real about it. This was a horrible pick IMO. I thought it was bad at the time (with Lincecum sitting right there) but i was wrong. It wasn't bad, it was horrible. At this point, I am hoping he can develop into a solid No. 4 OF for us in a couple years, someone who gets some spot starts against lefties. And that is really a stretch IMO. And it's very low expectations for a top 10 overall pick of the draft. Yes, we needed a right-handed hitting OF and we still do. Hamilton and Bruce are 2/3 of the OF of the future and they need a righty to go with them. But you don't draft based on need in MLB and that's what I think the Reds did with Stubbs. In no way was he the best player available, or even close. And yes, it's easy to say that almost 14 months removed from the draft, but I never did like that pick.

All that said, go out and prove me wrong Drew. Of course I will be rooting for him like he's my son as soon as he puts that Reds uniform on. And I'm sure he'll get his shot as a former first-rounder. But if he's ever a full-time starter, I will be shocked.

Man I wish you were running the reds draft. The reds farm system would be in such a better state.

dougdirt
08-01-2007, 10:50 AM
Seriously, can we not have another Stubbs/Lincecum debate? Especially in the prospect profile. These are supposed to be for information on the player to give others as much information about the player as possible, not about who someone else would have drafted instead.

uoduck1017
08-01-2007, 02:21 PM
Well, if he continues at this pace, Austin Kearns' avatar will be right. Unfortunatley, he will probably be roaming CF for the Lookouts or the Bats, not the Reds.

Edd Roush
08-01-2007, 03:03 PM
Seriously, can we not have another Stubbs/Lincecum debate? Especially in the prospect profile. These are supposed to be for information on the player to give others as much information about the player as possible, not about who someone else would have drafted instead.

Sorry, about furthering it doug, I really just didn't know if signability was a factor. What confuses me the most is how baseball executives seem to be more ignorant about building a baseball organization than a bunch of people posting on an internet website. I remember when Stubbs was drafted, and the bashing of the pick that followed, I just really wonder why general managers make life so difficult?

Doc. Scott
08-01-2007, 03:27 PM
Well, if he continues at this pace, Austin Kearns' avatar will be right. Unfortunatley, he will probably be roaming CF for the Lookouts or the Bats, not the Reds.

Stubbs is the type of prospect that will be traded if he disappoints for much longer. The Reds will try to wring whatever value from his draft status and tools and their $2 million that they can get.

In fact, they might deal him as soon as this offseason if they get someone dangling a decent relief arm or as a throw-in on a bigger deal. If Wayne and Co. feel like he's not going to get substantially better in 2008, they'll cash out before the market drops further.

pahster
08-01-2007, 03:52 PM
Stubbs has an IsoD like I thought Jay Bruce would have. Pretty impressive, especially coupled with his defensive abilities in CF.

Mario-Rijo
08-01-2007, 04:54 PM
I just used the stats from MiLB and copied them into note pad, and then organized them by how I wanted them to show up on the screen, and then put 'CODE' tags around them when I put the organized stats into Redszone.

AK is this how you did the hitting chart as well? If not how did you?

ochre
08-01-2007, 04:58 PM
Stubbs is the type of prospect that will be traded if he disappoints for much longer. The Reds will try to wring whatever value from his draft status and tools and their $2 million that they can get.

In fact, they might deal him as soon as this offseason if they get someone dangling a decent relief arm or as a throw-in on a bigger deal. If Wayne and Co. feel like he's not going to get substantially better in 2008, they'll cash out before the market drops further.
this guy (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=3582) is probably available :)

Patrick Bateman
08-01-2007, 05:44 PM
AK is this how you did the hitting chart as well? If not how did you?

Actually the hitting chart was just a picture. You just need to go into properties and copy the link to "insert the image".

Mario-Rijo
08-01-2007, 09:26 PM
http://http://firstinning.com/i/chart/453211-2007-a-hc.gif

Must've done something wrong, this is what I am getting!

Patrick Bateman
08-10-2007, 01:25 AM
Stubbs has been in a horrendous slump as of late.

Over his last 10 games he has a K/BB of 15:1 and has only 6 hits (2 doubles, 1 triple)

His line for the season sits at .351/.379/.730

However, today he did bust out going 3/4 with a homer and a SB. Hopefully things to come, but as I said, this has been probably his worst 10 game stretch of the season. He's done nothing right.

AmarilloRed
08-10-2007, 02:01 AM
It is it just me, or does Stubbs alternate going through hot and cold spells. It seems like he will hit everything in sight one week, and another week he will be unable to hit anything.

dougdirt
08-10-2007, 02:10 AM
That sounds about right amarillo... which is why it gives me plenty of hope for his future. he can hit the crap out of the ball at times, so its just a matter of putting it all together.

texasdave
08-12-2007, 07:50 PM
If I have added these numbers correctly Drew Stubbs seems like a different hitter since he was dropped into the 5th spot in the order. In 35 PA he has walked only once. He has garnered 11 hits though, including 5 EBH. He has a .343 OBP and a .559. Another big difference is that he has struck out only 7 times. I recognize that this is an extremely small sample size, but it may indicate that Stubbs is now taking a different approach at the plate. Maybe as leadoff he was taking a lot more pitches in an attempt to get on base via a walk or a hit. And maybe taking more pitches also led to striking out more often. And maybe I am just grasping at straws. That is certainly a possibility. This bears watching.

Blitz Dorsey
08-12-2007, 09:52 PM
It is it just me, or does Stubbs alternate going through hot and cold spells. It seems like he will hit everything in sight one week, and another week he will be unable to hit anything.

I would say it's more like going from ice-cold to possibly luke warm. And against pitchers much younger than him to boot.

dougdirt
08-12-2007, 09:59 PM
I would say it's more like going from ice-cold to possibly luke warm. And against pitchers much younger than him to boot.

average age of a MWL player - 22 years old.

Patrick Bateman
08-12-2007, 11:23 PM
4 straight multi-hit games is a nice way to end a slump.

Doc. Scott
08-13-2007, 01:09 AM
Drew seems to have responded well to being dropped to fifth or sixth in the order. Keltavious Jones has been leading off every game since his promotion.

dougdirt
08-13-2007, 01:19 AM
Drew Stubbs line if you take his horrible June out of the equation
.280/.381/.454 for an OPS of .835.

I know detractors, I know.... we could have had so and so, or he is 'too old', or 'you cant take out the month', blah blah blah blah blah.

The guy is not playing at 100%, or even really close to it and he is performing fine. He is not blowing anything out of the water or lighting the league on fire, but he is performing well. Not every guy will be a Jay Bruce type pick and be an absolute slam dunk.

11larkin11
08-13-2007, 01:44 AM
Doug gives me hope:D

Doc. Scott
08-13-2007, 11:56 AM
Drew Stubbs line if you take his horrible June out of the equation
.280/.381/.454 for an OPS of .835.

I know detractors, I know.... we could have had so and so, or he is 'too old', or 'you cant take out the month', blah blah blah blah blah.

The guy is not playing at 100%, or even really close to it and he is performing fine. He is not blowing anything out of the water or lighting the league on fire, but he is performing well. Not every guy will be a Jay Bruce type pick and be an absolute slam dunk.


It's just that there is strong evidence that most star players reach the majors by the age Drew Stubbs already is or a little older. If he's 25 by the time he gets to AAA, he's going to be branded a fourth/fifth OF and have an uphill battle for serious playing time.

While he may not be any older than the "average" MWL player, keep in mind the average MWL player ain't going to the big leagues, either.

As with most things, I think the truth is somewhere in between- he's not "just fine" given what the Reds spent on him, but you can't really say he's a bust yet, either.

dougdirt
08-13-2007, 11:58 AM
Hes also played all season with an injury that he is going to need surgery to fix in the offseason. Outside of his June, he is playing just fine. And really, why is he branded a 4th/5th outfielder at 25? Ryan Howard didn't break into the majors until then.... sure he was blocked at first by Jim Thome, but he wasn't exactly blowing the league away in low A at the same age that Stubbs is.... and he is a first baseman.

camisadelgolf
08-13-2007, 12:15 PM
With Stubbs' skills, the worst he can be is a fourth outfielder. If he lives up to his potential, I think he'll consistently surpass an .800 OPS every year. If not, I still think he'll be around .750.

Blitz Dorsey
08-13-2007, 04:34 PM
average age of a MWL player - 22 years old.

Thanks. Your next assignment is to look up how many top 10 draft picks who played college ball are still playing in low-A ball the year after they were drafted.

dougdirt
08-13-2007, 04:38 PM
Thanks. Your next assignment is to look up how many top 10 draft picks who played college ball are still playing in low-A ball the year after they were drafted.

Not many. Your job is to find me top 10 draft picks that were playing an entire season hurt the year after they were drafted. We can play this game all day.

What everyone else has to do with Drew Stubbs, I will not understand.

mth123
08-13-2007, 07:14 PM
With Stubbs' skills, the worst he can be is a fourth outfielder. If he lives up to his potential, I think he'll consistently surpass an .800 OPS every year. If not, I still think he'll be around .750.

Same skillset as Dwayne Wise. No guarantee.

camisadelgolf
08-13-2007, 08:18 PM
Same skillset as Dwayne Wise. No guarantee.

I disagree with you very much on Stubbs and Wise having the same skillsets.

pahster
08-13-2007, 08:28 PM
I think Stubbs' potential or lack thereof will be far more apparent next year than it is now. I'm willing to give him a full season sans injury.

That said, he hasn't impressed me at all outside of his ability to work a walk and his defense (which is based solely on hearsay, as I've never seen him play). He was quite underwhelming last year, but I suppose it could have just been getting used to hitting with wooden bats.

I'm not too optimistic, but I hope he proves me wrong.

dougdirt
08-13-2007, 10:18 PM
I think Stubbs' potential or lack thereof will be far more apparent next year than it is now. I'm willing to give him a full season sans injury.

That said, he hasn't impressed me at all outside of his ability to work a walk and his defense (which is based solely on hearsay, as I've never seen him play). He was quite underwhelming last year, but I suppose it could have just been getting used to hitting with wooden bats.

I'm not too optimistic, but I hope he proves me wrong.

He was injured last year too.... different injury.

mbgrayson
08-13-2007, 11:09 PM
He was injured last year too.... different injury.


Last year they didn't call it 'turf toe', but it was a toe injury. Here is a link (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=49811)to a thread that discusses last years injury.

SteelSD
08-13-2007, 11:58 PM
Last year they didn't call it 'turf toe', but it was a toe injury. Here is a link (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=49811)to a thread that discusses last years injury.

A two-year toe injury that allows him to run, hit, and field daily.

That's some injury.

dougdirt
08-14-2007, 12:02 AM
A two-year toe injury that allows him to run, hit, and field daily.

That's some injury.

But it doesnt allow him to run, hit or field like it would if he were healthy.

So even while being unhealthy, he is turning in a solid season outside of 1 month that was absolutely attrocious.

Blitz Dorsey
08-14-2007, 12:03 AM
Not many. Your job is to find me top 10 draft picks that were playing an entire season hurt the year after they were drafted. We can play this game all day.

What everyone else has to do with Drew Stubbs, I will not understand.

Fair enough. Let me just put it this way: I hope you are right about Stubbs and I am wrong. I want the Reds to win, period. And it's not Drew Stubbs' fault that we made a terrible decision by drafting him so early. That falls on Krivsky and crew.

dougdirt
08-14-2007, 12:04 AM
Last year they didn't call it 'turf toe', but it was a toe injury. Here is a link (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=49811)to a thread that discusses last years injury.

That was not the only injury Drew was dealing with last year though.

Screwball
08-14-2007, 12:33 AM
That was not the only injury Drew was dealing with last year though.

So then he's injury prone. :evil:

camisadelgolf
08-14-2007, 12:54 AM
If you expect Stubbs to be the eight-best player out of the draft, I don't think it's fair because drafts never have and never will work out that way. But if you expect him to be the average #8 pick, then I think you're being fair. The thing is, here are the players who were signed as the #8 pick overall since 1990 (I omitted the most recent years because it's too early to know how they'll perform as Major Leaguers):

Tim Costo
Pete Janicki
Kirk Presley
Todd Walker
Todd Helton
Chad Green
J.J. Davis
Felipe Lopez
Bobby Bradley
Matt Wheatland
John VanBenschoten

As you can see, it won't take much at all for Stubbs to be one of the more successful players drafted in his slot. Personally, I think he'll be very successful by comparison (and all that would take would be for him to be an everyday center fielder for a Major League team).

SteelSD
08-14-2007, 01:01 AM
But it doesnt allow him to run, hit or field like it would if he were healthy.

So even while being unhealthy, he is turning in a solid season outside of 1 month that was absolutely attrocious.

Yeah, if we just remove the bad he's decent in low-A ball even having an injury so severe that it allows him to play every day.

Solid.

Doro
08-14-2007, 01:05 AM
With all do respect, this discussion has really happened a million times here. It was a bad pick. Lincecum was the choice. 90% of Redszone said so at the time.

I was hoping this thread could be more about Drew Stubbs' progress rather than guys the Reds should have had instead of Drew Stubbs. But I definitely do agree that Stubbs is not where he needs to be. He has a very long road to go as a hitter.

Redszone is like talk radio. I would say more but apparently only certain people are allowed to rip on other certain people on this board.

Kc61
08-14-2007, 09:55 AM
I think the reason people are very dubious is that last year, before the draft, the various publicly available scouting reports about Stubbs said he was a great athlete with a questionable bat.

Having read that before the draft, I think folks have concerns about his actual hitting performance in Rookie ball and Low A.

Blitz Dorsey
08-14-2007, 08:15 PM
I think the reason people are very dubious is that last year, before the draft, the various publicly available scouting reports about Stubbs said he was a great athlete with a questionable bat.

Having read that before the draft, I think folks have concerns about his actual hitting performance in Rookie ball and Low A.

Exactly. It was pretty much widespread that a team would be making a foolish decision by drafting him in the first round. Then we take him with the No. 8 overall pick with an obvious pitcher sitting right there and I wanted to vomit.

It would be one thing if he was this great college player who just couldn't make the jump. But the guy simply was never that good. It has nothing to do with a toe injury or getting used to the wooden bat. He is not good and it was a horrible pick.

dougdirt
08-14-2007, 08:56 PM
Exactly. It was pretty much widespread that a team would be making a foolish decision by drafting him in the first round. Then we take him with the No. 8 overall pick with an obvious pitcher sitting right there and I wanted to vomit.

It would be one thing if he was this great college player who just couldn't make the jump. But the guy simply was never that good. It has nothing to do with a toe injury or getting used to the wooden bat. He is not good and it was a horrible pick.

So you hated the pick from day 1 and won't take the time to look at any of the good he has done? You also say its not like he was never good and couldn't make the jump? The jump to what? In college he was a STUD.
As for having an injury and it having no bearing on whether he is good or not.... I am sorry, but thats fairly laughable. Sure there was hardly anyone who didn't question his bat coming out of the draft, but that has nothing to do with him being hurt and not playing at 100% right now. Still, outside of 1 horrible month, the guy has an OPS of .850 the rest of the season and you have already labeled him as a bust at the age of 22.

GoReds33
08-14-2007, 11:36 PM
I like Stubbs. Though he is old, he has plenty of time to develop. I just hope we don't have another Chris Dickerson on our hands. I think he has plenty of power, and that might be enough to make him an everyday player. If so, his defense would anchor an outfield.

AmarilloRed
08-15-2007, 01:20 AM
I like Stubbs. Though he is old, he has plenty of time to develop. I just hope we don't have another Chris Dickerson on our hands. I think he has plenty of power, and that might be enough to make him an everyday player. If so, his defense would anchor an outfield.

22 is not old. If he is 27 and still at A level, then we have cause to worry.;)

PuffyPig
08-15-2007, 10:15 AM
Exactly. It was pretty much widespread that a team would be making a foolish decision by drafting him in the first round.



I don't recall seeing any publications that suggested that it would be foolish making him a first round pick, much less that it was widespeed.

My recollection was that he was rated, more or less, where he was picked by the Reds.

Sources?

dougdirt
08-15-2007, 10:49 AM
I don't recall seeing any publications that suggested that it would be foolish making him a first round pick, much less that it was widespeed.

My recollection was that he was rated, more or less, where he was picked by the Reds.

Sources?

Exactly. He was the 2nd rated college position player in the draft according to nearly every source outside of this board behind Evan Longoria. If the Reds would have passedon him there were several other teams that were interested in taking him before he even got to the 15th pick.

Patrick Bateman
08-18-2007, 12:23 PM
Last 10 games:


Date OPP AVG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS

Aug 06 BEL .000 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Aug 07 @QC .000 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0
Aug 09 @QC .750 4 2 3 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0
Aug 10 @QC .500 4 1 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
Aug 11 @BUR .500 4 1 2 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Aug 12 @BUR .500 4 0 2 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0
Aug 13 @BUR .000 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Aug 14 @BUR .800 5 2 4 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Aug 16 @GLL .333 3 1 1 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 0
Aug 17 @GLL .667 6 3 4 0 0 1 1 1 2 0 1

Totals .450 40 12 18 2 1 3 7 2 4 1 1


Season Stats to date:


Team League AVG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO SB CS OBP SLG OPS

DAY MID .269 113 438 82 118 25 4 11 35 184 61 128 22 15 .366 .420 .786

Since moving out of the lead-off spot, Stubb's plate approach seems to be drastically different. His strikeouts and walks are way down, and his power and hits are way up. it will be interesting if this new appraoch continues to be the difference with Stubbs and if he continues improving.

He's been great the last month, and if his power continues to blossom here at the end, Stubbs' at one point lost season has been overall okay.

dougdirt
08-18-2007, 12:35 PM
He's been great the last month, and if his power continues to blossom here at the end, Stubbs' at one point lost season has been overall okay.

June was the only time in the season where Drew was really struggling.

Patrick Bateman
08-18-2007, 12:46 PM
June was the only time in the season where Drew was really struggling.

I'm just saying it wasn't that long ago his OPS was in the the low .700 range. Since then, he has been on fire.

BigRed07
08-18-2007, 01:28 PM
Drew can thank his coaching staff for making him choke up. He has been raking ever since. Sometimes the adjustments are just that simple. Drew is starting to become the player the Reds thought he would be when they made him their #1 pick.

AmarilloRed
08-18-2007, 06:00 PM
What team should Stubbs start with next year? I would think he should be at Sarasota or Chatanooga.

OnBaseMachine
08-18-2007, 06:10 PM
Chattanooga. Stubbs will be 23 years old in October, no need to to start him at Sarasota next season.

Kc61
08-18-2007, 06:22 PM
Chattanooga. Stubbs will be 23 years old in October, no need to to start him at Sarasota next season.


Whoa. Let's step back a minute.

I don't think a hot streak in the last month of the A ball season proves anything, except that Stubbs is capable of a hot streak. That's fine but it is the end of the season, presumably some younger pitchers are up, some teams are out of it, and it's hard to evaluate whether Stubbs has really turned a corner.

With all, Stubbs is still OPSing .786. And while Doug is always noting his injury and his good months, his overall offensive minor league record still, well, raises questions.

The last thing I would do with this kid is skip a level. No way, no how. Let him start next year at High A ball. We all hope he rakes at that level. If so, there is plenty of time for Double A.

Stubbs needs to start next year off hot, not to be struggling to master AA. So let's be happy for his recent success, but take things slowly.

OnBaseMachine
08-18-2007, 06:32 PM
Whoa, where did I ever say that a hot streak proved anything? I'm saying Stubbs should begin next season in Chattanooga because he will be 23 years old, which is suitable for AA but considered sort of old for High-A. Plus, starting in Chattanooga will probably benefit Stubbs more than starting him in Sarasota. The FSL eats hitters alive.

dougdirt
08-18-2007, 07:19 PM
Whoa. Let's step back a minute.

I don't think a hot streak in the last month of the A ball season proves anything, except that Stubbs is capable of a hot streak. That's fine but it is the end of the season, presumably some younger pitchers are up, some teams are out of it, and it's hard to evaluate whether Stubbs has really turned a corner.

With all, Stubbs is still OPSing .786. And while Doug is always noting his injury and his good months, his overall offensive minor league record still, well, raises questions.

The last thing I would do with this kid is skip a level. No way, no how. Let him start next year at High A ball. We all hope he rakes at that level. If so, there is plenty of time for Double A.

Stubbs needs to start next year off hot, not to be struggling to master AA. So let's be happy for his recent success, but take things slowly.

I disagree. You say I count his good months, but you say his overall track record raises questions.... I bring up that outside of June he has an .879 OPS for the season. Thats not counting the good months, unless well they are all good months except June (and they arent, his April he posted an OPS under .700).

I am with OBM though, I would keep as many hitters out of the FSL as possible.

Kc61
08-18-2007, 08:36 PM
I disagree. You say I count his good months, but you say his overall track record raises questions.... I bring up that outside of June he has an .879 OPS for the season. Thats not counting the good months, unless well they are all good months except June (and they arent, his April he posted an OPS under .700).

I am with OBM though, I would keep as many hitters out of the FSL as possible.

Well, his overall track record does raise questions. Just look at last year and this, the overall stats. All of his at bats count, regardless what month they were in.

But Stubbs is on fire right now. Reds need to find a way to help him start off next year on a positive offensive note. He's spent a lot of time adjusting, now it's time for some success.

dougdirt
08-18-2007, 08:39 PM
Well, his overall track record does raise questions. Just look at last year and this, the overall stats. All of his at bats count, regardless what month they were in.

But Stubbs is on fire right now. Reds need to find a way to help him start off next year on a positive offensive note. He's spent a lot of time adjusting, now it's time for some success.

If we are going to look at a track record of 1.5 years, then I will certainly take the more recent year than the previous half year.