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View Full Version : I bet Texas would like to have this trade back



cincrazy
07-20-2007, 01:32 AM
In January of 2006, the Texas Rangers traded Chris Young, Adrian Gonzalez and Terrmel Sledge to the San Diego Padres for Adam Eaton, Billy Killian and Akinori Otsuka. I can't believe how that just seems to fly under the radar... what an AWFUL trade.

We here at Redszone pile on WK for trading Kearns and Lopez for middle reliever's, but the Rangers traded a staff ace and a cleanup hitter for a crappy starter and a reliever, pretty much.

Can any of the rest of you think of a deal that's just unbelievably one-sided, either lately or many years ago, but doesn't get much publicity for whatever reason? (For example, the Frank Robinson and Tony Perez deals don't count, they're very well known :))

Eric_Davis
07-20-2007, 01:38 AM
It didn't fly under the radar.

It was well known at the time by many that Chris Young had the best road record in the Majors before he was traded, but the Texans failed to understand how valuable that quality was for a starting pitcher. As I like the Padres, I was glad for them to get such a quality pitcher at the time. Texas has always been poor at recognizing quality pitching for some strange reason. Maybe it's the heat of summer that kills the pitcher's ability to throw well and that the Rangers always forget to take that into account when evaluating a pitcher. Whatever it is, they are consistently bad at recognizing quality pitching.

Patrick Bateman
07-20-2007, 01:40 AM
Definitely an awful trade by Texas, but Young isn't the pitcher his current ERA makes him out to be. He's not going to continue being a staff ace IMO.

RedsManRick
07-20-2007, 01:49 AM
So to be clear, these are deals that were bad from the the get to, and end up as bad as they looked or worse, right? Obviously there are lots of lopsided trades where some guys panned out. But sometimes, it's just stupid from teh start.

- Pittsburgh trades Aramis Ramirez & Kenny Lofton to Chicago for Jose Hernandez, Matt Bruback, and Bobby Hill (August 15, 2003).

- D'Backs trade Junior Spivey, Craig Counsell, Lyle Overbay, Chad Moeller, Chris Capuano, and Jorge de la Rosa for 1 year of Richie Sexson (who got hurt and then left), Shane Nance, and Noochie Varner.

- Cubs trade Greg Maddux AND Cash for Ceasar Izturis

- And one of the stupidest deals in recent memory, Astros trade Taylor Buchholz, Jason Hirsch, and Willy Taveras for Jason Jennings and Miguel Ascencio.

And here's a nice theme. Organization gets a good deal and then screws it up by dealing the guy away.

- Rockies send Neifi Perez to KC for Jermaine Dye and the same day trade Jermaine Dye to Oakland for Todd Belitz, Mario Encarnacion, and Jose Ortiz.

- Pirates trade Brian Giles to SD for Jason Bay and Oliver Perez. Pirates get a great player in Bay and a Cy Young year out of Perez. Perez struggles and they sell low on him, sending him to NYM with Roberto Hernandez for Xavier Nady simply because they didn't want to pay his arb raise.

Big Klu
07-20-2007, 02:06 AM
Here's another one for the Rockies.

The Rox trade Larry Walker and cash to the Cardinals for minor-leaguers Jason Burch, Luis Martinez, and Chris Narveson. None of the three ever made it to the majors with Rockies. Furthermore, Narveson is back in the Cards organization off a waiver claim.

Spitball
07-20-2007, 08:00 AM
In January of 2006, the Texas Rangers traded Chris Young, Adrian Gonzalez and Terrmel Sledge to the San Diego Padres for Adam Eaton, Billy Killian and Akinori Otsuka. I can't believe how that just seems to fly under the radar... what an AWFUL trade.

The Rangers felt Young was too much of a flyball pitcher for their ballpark.

The Cards sent Danny Haren and Kiko Calero and Daric Barton to the A's for Mark Mulder. Can you imagine the young rotation the A's would have with that trade and if they had held onto Harang and Bonderman?

MrCinatit
07-20-2007, 09:07 AM
The same Rangers team that got Randy Velarde for Aaron Harang?

Stewie
07-20-2007, 09:16 AM
So to be clear, these are deals that were bad from the the get to, and end up as bad as they looked or worse, right? Obviously there are lots of lopsided trades where some guys panned out. But sometimes, it's just stupid from teh start.



The Mets trading Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano looked pretty bad from the get go, as well.

Red Leader
07-20-2007, 10:29 AM
In January of 2006, the Texas Rangers traded Chris Young, Adrian Gonzalez and Terrmel Sledge to the San Diego Padres for Adam Eaton, Billy Killian and Akinori Otsuka. I can't believe how that just seems to fly under the radar... what an AWFUL trade.



Other Rangers trades that make me smile:


-Cleveland received first baseman Travis Hafner and righthander Aaron Myette, while Texas added catcher Einar Diaz and righty Ryan Drese. Shortly thereafter, Indians general manager Mark Shapiro was arrested for grand theft slugger.

-Cincinnati Reds traded Rob Bell to the Texas Rangers for Ruben Mateo and Edwin Encarnacion

Benihana
07-20-2007, 10:31 AM
How about

Twins trade: AJ Pierzynski
Giants trade: Joe Nathan, Francisco Liriano, and Boof Bonser

or perhaps the 2 worst Reds trades of the last 20 years-

Orioles trade: Curtis Goodwin
Reds trade: David Wells

Expos trade: Dave Martinez, Scott Ruskin and Willie Greene
Reds trade: John Wetteland
(the Reds chose this return instead of an OF named Larry Walker)

oneupper
07-20-2007, 10:47 AM
The Larry Walker and Greg Maddux trades were "rent a player" trades.

You can't view those the same way as others. They're about getting money and a few lottery tickets in return.

PuffyPig
07-20-2007, 11:04 AM
Orioles trade: Curtis Goodwin
Reds trade: David Wells



After the Reds playoff run of 1995, they had to trade one of their 2 deadline deal acqusitions, Portugal or Wells, due to salary restrictions.

Portugal apparently had no market, so they were forced to move Wells.

Benihana
07-20-2007, 11:25 AM
After the Reds playoff run of 1995, they had to trade one of their 2 deadline deal acqusitions, Portugal or Wells, due to salary restrictions.

Portugal apparently had no market, so they were forced to move Wells.

True. It just would have been nice to get something back other than JimBo's proverbial 5-tool OF prospect. "I OWN YOU, BOY!"

Spitball
07-20-2007, 11:45 AM
True. It just would have been nice to get something back other than JimBo's proverbial 5-tool OF prospect.

I think Goodwin only had one tool,speed...but he was a very poor base runner. I'm not sure I've seen many players with fewer baseball instincts.

Spitball
07-20-2007, 11:51 AM
Frank Robinson for Milt Pappas, Jack Baldshun, and Dick Simpson

Lou Brock for Ernie Broglio

Sparky Lyle for Danny Cater and Mario Guerrero

Babe Ruth for No, No, Nannette

Johnny Footstool
07-20-2007, 12:16 PM
Definitely an awful trade by Texas, but Young isn't the pitcher his current ERA makes him out to be. He's not going to continue being a staff ace IMO.

He's been outstanding for the past two seasons. Last year, he was fantastic on the road (93.1 IP, 2.41 ERA, 1.01 WHIP) and just mediocre at home. This season, he's untouchable at home (62 IP, 0.73 ERA, 0.89 WHIP) and once again fantastic on the road (54.2 IP, 3.13 ERA, 1.13 WHIP). His peripherals suggest that his HR rate will normalize, which would make him merely an excellent pitcher as opposed to a Cy Young clone.

Patrick Bateman
07-20-2007, 01:15 PM
He's been outstanding for the past two seasons. Last year, he was fantastic on the road (93.1 IP, 2.41 ERA, 1.01 WHIP) and just mediocre at home. This season, he's untouchable at home (62 IP, 0.73 ERA, 0.89 WHIP) and once again fantastic on the road (54.2 IP, 3.13 ERA, 1.13 WHIP). His peripherals suggest that his HR rate will normalize, which would make him merely an excellent pitcher as opposed to a Cy Young clone.

His HR rate is due for a disgusting regression. Petco is absolutely the perfect fit for a guy like Young.

His GB/FB rate is in Milton territory, currently at 0.59, and his HR/FB rate is at 2.5%. Basically his HR rate is about a quarter of what his peripherals suggest.

His BAPIP is also extremely low at .255. We are basically looking at the luckiest pitcher in baseball right now.

His peripherals are more in line with his 2005 season with the Rangers where he was really more of a 4.20 ERA type of pitcher. His K/BB is around 3.00 and his GB/FB rate is around 0.60.

Obviously a tremendous asset to have especially at his current salary levels, but he is not an ace or even an excellent pitcher IMO, he's really closer to being good, or slightly above average.

RedsManRick
07-20-2007, 01:44 PM
Chris Young is a good example of why you can't completely separate the pitcher from his park. Chris Young would be a mediocre at best pitcher in GABP and maybe just good at a neutral park. However, in Pecto, his low BABIP is somewhat sustainable because flyballs DO turn in to outs at a greater rate and homers at a lower rate there. Yes, he's been lucky too. But the Pads were smart to acquire a pitcher who's value was significantly enhanced by coming to their park.

Patrick Bateman
07-20-2007, 02:01 PM
Chris Young is a good example of why you can't completely separate the pitcher from his park. Chris Young would be a mediocre at best pitcher in GABP and maybe just good at a neutral park. However, in Pecto, his low BABIP is somewhat sustainable because flyballs DO turn in to outs at a greater rate and homers at a lower rate there. Yes, he's been lucky too. But the Pads were smart to acquire a pitcher who's value was significantly enhanced by coming to their park.

Exactly. Petco is great for his tendencies, while not harming his skills. He's the perfect fit for their club.

Much like guys in Cincy with marginal power become legit power hitters when in GABP. Generally, the best thing to due is to build up their value due to the park effects, and try to trade them for a king's ransom. In Young's case, the Padres are probably better off keeping Young since he is such a good fit there, and they are getting more value out of him than his actual skill level dictates, because his skill set works so well in Petco.

Big Klu
07-20-2007, 02:09 PM
The Larry Walker and Greg Maddux trades were "rent a player" trades.

You can't view those the same way as others. They're about getting money and a few lottery tickets in return.

Except that Colorado didn't get money for Walker--they paid St. Louis to take Walker, and all they got were three guys who didn't figure to ever be anything.

Red Leader
07-20-2007, 02:13 PM
Much like guys in Cincy with marginal power become legit power hitters when in GABP. Generally, the best thing to due is to build up their value due to the park effects, and try to trade them for a king's ransom.


Exhibit A, Joe Randa.

Although, I would hardly call Travis Chick a "king's ransom."

Patrick Bateman
07-20-2007, 02:19 PM
Exhibit A, Joe Randa.

Although, I would hardly call Travis Chick a "king's ransom."

Neither would I. But the Reds did still manage to turn a below average 3rd basemen on the decline into what was at the time into 2 pitchers that had a legitimite shot in the majors.

Chick did have some potential, but Germano never really offered much. Not exactly a great package, but not bad considering the Reds were dealing a 3rd basemen who's value was built up entirely of park effects.

Red Leader
07-20-2007, 02:22 PM
.
Not exactly a great package, but not bad considering the Reds were dealing a 3rd basemen who's value was built up entirely of park effects.


True dat. :beerme:

Johnny Footstool
07-20-2007, 03:08 PM
Exactly. Petco is great for his tendencies, while not harming his skills. He's the perfect fit for their club.

Much like guys in Cincy with marginal power become legit power hitters when in GABP. Generally, the best thing to due is to build up their value due to the park effects, and try to trade them for a king's ransom. In Young's case, the Padres are probably better off keeping Young since he is such a good fit there, and they are getting more value out of him than his actual skill level dictates, because his skill set works so well in Petco.

See my earlier post. He was better on the road than in Petco last season.

His K/9 suggests he'll remain an excellent pitcher, even if his current streak of luck runs out.

cincrazy
07-20-2007, 03:20 PM
I don't think Chris Young is slightly above average... He's obviously not a clone of Pedro in his prime, but I'd take him any day of the week, whether it's in our ballpark, or Yosemite, uh, I mean Petco.

Patrick Bateman
07-20-2007, 03:23 PM
See my earlier post. He was better on the road than in Petco last season.

His K/9 suggests he'll remain an excellent pitcher, even if his current streak of luck runs out.

Ya but that's only a half season's worth of stats. That's a pretty small sample size. I sure wouldn't tkae that as gospel. Flyball pitchers are not going to consistently pitch better away than in Petco.

His K/9 is good, but when accompanied by only solid contol and awful flyball rates, we are not talking about an ace, or even an excellent pitcher. For him to reach that level, he need to induce more groundballs, or he will certainly be prone to homers when away from Petco. No pitcher is going to consistently put the ball in the air and still keep it in the park excepting park effects.

For example, in 2005 with the Rangers, Young had basically the exact same peripherals as his current year, but the main difference was that the flyballs were turing into homers at a higher degree. This wasn't just park effects, as his HR/FB was only 7.5% (below the average). His peripherals suggested a DIPS ERA of 3.98, and he was still due for a homerun regression.

So Young has had help from both fantastic luck this season plus ballpark effects. 2 things he has zero control of. Of course the park effects will continue to be on his side, but he is due for a massive luck regression.

Patrick Bateman
07-20-2007, 03:24 PM
I don't think Chris Young is slightly above average... He's obviously not a clone of Pedro in his prime, but I'd take him any day of the week, whether it's in our ballpark, or Yosemite, uh, I mean Petco.

I'd of course take him. He would make a very nice top 3 with Harang and Arroyo, but the expectations of him as a consistent sub 4.00 ERA pitcher may be a little extreme.

RedsManRick
07-20-2007, 03:34 PM
Young is pretty much the same pitcher from Texas. It's just that Texas undervalued what he was. PECTO has averaged a HR Park Factor 27% less than Texas over the past 3 years. If you only count that at 50% due to home/road, you still have Young allowing an expect 13.5% HR. In 2006, his HR/FB rate was actually 35% higher than in 2005. This year it's in the basement. That rate is likely going to normalize a bit, but everything about him suggests he's a solid #2 starter, including what he did in 2005 in Texas. Adam Eaton has always been a #3/4 guy at best.

Johnny Footstool
07-20-2007, 03:38 PM
Ya but that's only a half season's worth of stats. That's a pretty small sample size. I sure wouldn't tkae that as gospel. Flyball pitchers are not going to consistently pitch better away than in Petco.

His K/9 is good, but when accompanied by only solid contol and awful flyball rates, we are not talking about an ace, or even an excellent pitcher. For him to reach that level, he need to induce more groundballs, or he will certainly be prone to homers when away from Petco. No pitcher is going to consistently put the ball in the air and still keep it in the park excepting park effects.

For example, in 2005 with the Rangers, Young had basically the exact same peripherals as his current year, but the main difference was that the flyballs were turing into homers at a higher degree. This wasn't just park effects, as his HR/FB was only 7.5% (below the average). His peripherals suggested a DIPS ERA of 3.98, and he was still due for a homerun regression.

So Young has had help from both fantastic luck this season plus ballpark effects. 2 things he has zero control of. Of course the park effects will continue to be on his side, but he is due for a massive luck regression.

His GB/FB ratio took a big downswing last season, his HR rate spiked, and Petco didn't do him any favors. Yet he still posted a tasty ERA of 3.44 in 179 innings.

I think he's one of those pitchers who has something special about them that lets them beat normal BABIP predictions. It's quite possibly his 6' 10" frame -- facing him must make most hitters feel like they're back in junior high scrimmaging against the high school team.

PuffyPig
07-20-2007, 03:38 PM
Except that Colorado didn't get money for Walker--they paid St. Louis to take Walker, and all they got were three guys who didn't figure to ever be anything.

Sure they got money, as the Cards paid a significant portion of Walker's salary.

Salary relief is money.

Patrick Bateman
07-20-2007, 03:54 PM
His GB/FB ratio took a big downswing last season, his HR rate spiked, and Petco didn't do him any favors. Yet he still posted a tasty ERA of 3.44 in 179 innings.


Young also had a BAPIP of .237 last season, a rate well below every other season in his career, plus he had a career high LOB%. Two trends guaranteed not to continue in the future. Even his HR/FB ratio was basically at league average, so it's not like he was particulary unlucky in that regards.


I think he's one of those pitchers who has something special about them that lets them beat normal BABIP predictions. It's quite possibly his 6' 10" frame -- facing him must make most hitters feel like they're back in junior high scrimmaging against the high school team.

If this were true, wouldn't other giants like say Randy Johnson who is about as intimidating as it gets post massively low BAPIP's year in and year out? Instead, this trend has not been known to be true.

I will also note that the Padres had DER (Defensive Efficiency Ratio) last season, and are 4th this season. It appears that Young's low BAPIP's are more due to his team's defense then an actual skill.

I don't see anything special here. I see a guy who followed normal trends before going to Petco park where everything went out of whack. Put Chris Young in a neutral ballpark, and his numbers explode towards the mean.

RedsManRick
07-20-2007, 03:58 PM
I will also note that the Padres had DER (Defensive Efficiency Ratio) last season, and are 4th this season. It appears that Young's low BAPIP's are more due to his team's defense then an actual skill.

I don't see anything special here. I see a guy who followed normal trends before going to Petco park where everything went out of whack. Put Chris Young in a neutral ballpark, and his numbers explode towards the mean.

1.) I don't disagree that SD's defense helps. But "more"? Really? On what basis on are you comparing the amount of the various effects?
2.) "Explode towards the mean" -- which mean? I don't think anybody is saying that Young is a legitimate Cy Young contender who will keep his ERA under 2.00. Rather, I see a guy who would put up an ERA in the mid 3s in a neutral park in front of a neutral defense. The aren't a ton of guys around who do that and so I'd call Young pretty good.

Johnny Footstool
07-20-2007, 04:44 PM
Young also had a BAPIP of .237 last season, a rate well below every other season in his career, plus he had a career high LOB%. Two trends guaranteed not to continue in the future. Even his HR/FB ratio was basically at league average, so it's not like he was particulary unlucky in that regards.


BABIP isn't as random as Voros McCracken originally postulated. It can be greatly affected by the type of contact allowed.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/a-different-look-at-babip/


If this were true, wouldn't other giants like say Randy Johnson who is about as intimidating as it gets post massively low BAPIP's year in and year out? Instead, this trend has not been known to be true.

It could be that Randy Johnson's arsenal of power pitches tend to result in harder-hit balls when the batter makes contact. Young's 90 mph fastball (much like Harang's) can be deceiving, especially coming from a 6' 10" mess of arms and legs. I'd like to see a study of BABIP vs. pitch types and pitch selection.


I don't see anything special here. I see a guy who followed normal trends before going to Petco park where everything went out of whack. Put Chris Young in a neutral ballpark, and his numbers explode towards the mean.

His career numbers in neutral (i.e. road) ballparks are very good to excellent. Call it a small sample size, but it's 240 IPs of road pitching with an excellent K/9 an ERA slightly over 3.00. The guy is better than you're giving him credit for being.

Patrick Bateman
07-20-2007, 05:55 PM
His career numbers in neutral (i.e. road) ballparks are very good to excellent. Call it a small sample size, but it's 240 IPs of road pitching with an excellent K/9 an ERA slightly over 3.00. The guy is better than you're giving him credit for being.

I'll take his peripherals rather than straight ERA as they are proven to be correct more often.

There are a lot of factors such as defense and plain old luck that can skew 240 innings. Sure his K's are good, but the other numbers aren't nearly to that high of skill level. Given time, I doubt his ERA would be even close to 3.00 on the road.

Again, the peripherals suggest a pitcher with an ERA around 4.00, and that's the type of pitcher that I believe him to be. His numbers have been pretty consistent throughout his career. The only differences are conveniantly placed in a favourable park, with a top notch defense behind him.