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View Full Version : Various observations (long post with apology)



coachw513
07-20-2007, 02:24 AM
First, glad to be back...summer coaching, family vacation and little computer time...2 stories that confirm my continued enjoyment of the Reds and RZ...

On Vacation in Virginia:
Wife (and brother-in-law): "What are you looking at??"
Me: (With an appropriate amount of enthusiasm)..."A 22 page thread about the merits of trading Adam Dunn"
Them: Puzzled looks, then walking out of room shaking heads...

Former assistant coach and friend (when just being told by my wife that I was going to see the Reds this week): "He still likes the Reds??..man, I was sure he'd be rooting for a better team by now!"

(That comment in and of itself would merit him being a former assistant :D)

Forgive me making a number of observations regarding countless issues...the challenge: getting to the end of post before stopping and beating the Dunn comment to death :rolleyes:...

1. Is it possible to be truly torn about the Dunn issue??...I can't imagine the hole his departure leaves in our current lineup, but I'd still trade him...first, I believe he's a potential financial disappointment (not an albatross, but a disappointment)...his next contract (here or elsewhere) will mandate IMHO performance worthy of Pujols, Vlad, Ortiz, etc impact and I continue to privately label Dunn as an Emmy-caliber supporting actor, but not capable of carrying a film...the other gut feeling is totally intangible...I think Dunn is the living, breathing personification of the culture that has been the Reds for the better part of a decade...putting up great stats that for whatever reason don't equate to victories...he's the poster child for the losing culture that our franchise is, and I don't belive we can turn around our fortunes with him as our cornerstone player...no, he's not the sole reason we lose, and I'm not saying he doesn't try or care...but as we well know the definition of insanity is to continue doing the same thing over and over expecting the same result...thus, isn't it simply "insane" to believe the Reds will turn the corner with the same personnel??...Dunn is the trump card available to make the most dynamic, powerful change in the personnel of our club...I understand an opinion-laden statement like this is well-worthy of criticism but my personal "win-shares" lens of Dunn merits us considering a deal...

However, time has proven to be thus-far unkind to WK as a "trader", and I fear the return...as a result I'm almost more fearful of the end result of trading him than my gut telling me we have to trade him in order to make progress...next, the recent information regarding Dunn's communication with PMack makes me wonder if the right manager (Pete or otherwise) makes a difference with Dunn and helps him to perform at a higher level...makes me lean a bit more towards the "hold" viewpoint to see if there is a "post-Narron/new manager" impact with Dunn...thus my conflicted thoughts...

2. It's apparent that the black cloud was lifted with Narron's firing...too many comments veiled and otherwise coming out of the clubhouse and by the media clearly show it's a much better atmosphere conducive to perform in...thus a 10-4 record for Pete...is he the right guy???...well, the fears that we have jumped on the Miley, Narron train are well-founded because change independent of anything else is a good thing...whether or not "change" is 10-4 or if Pete carries part of that success with him is yet to be determined...I do personally like his feel with the pitching staff, his seeming ability to communicate effectively and I'd like to see him work with a complete 25 man roster in terms of talent and see the results because I think he has a good sense of how to keep his entire roster involved and sharp without "over managing"...he certainly hasn't hurt his cause any...me???...I'm relieving him at the end of the year as of today only because I think we are simply improving to our mean as a club that was incredibly dispassionate while on the Narron-death march for a good 6 weeks...

3. I'm a big EE fan (heck, I'm wearing an EE t-shirt as a I write this) but maybe one of the reasons the Reds SHOULD consider listening to suitors is because he's not great against LH pitchers...with all the LH dominance of our lineup we need the righty's to mash LH pitching...for the 2nd straight year EE has been worse against LH than RH, actually exasperating our poor performance against lefty starters...it's a viable concern...I want them to keep him, but when you consider Votto, Bruce and Hamilton are all LH, you can see the possibility of a "Dunn-fetched" RH third sacker replacing Encarnacion...

4. Assuming we won't go on an A's like 23-4 2nd half run, it would be a trajedy if Hatteburg, Conine, Stanton and Weathers aren't moved by the deadline...hopefully it will be a seller's market and that making deals will make sense...

5. I'd love for Lohse to be here next year...I'd take his maddening inconsistency with his top-shelf stuff on his good days over the AAAA fodder often run out ever 5th day by teams with their 4th or 5th starters...BUT we HAVE to trade him if at all possible...no way in heck that a Boras client can be resigned with any financial sense (has anyone ever heard Lohse talking about wanting to stay in Cincy??...I haven't)...that's too bad...

6. I realize everyone's prospect listed on a list somewhere looks awesome (not a shot at those that really know the minor league guys out there) and that we get really disenchanted with our losing and thus, our guys (the "grass is greener" thing), but trading BPhillips???...I just don't get it...26 year old power-producing, great defending 2B don't just fall out of trees...we are very, very lucky to have a righty run-producer in a "non-offensive" position...why would anyone ever want to move him???...IMHO, it would be very difficult to acquire/develop anyone capable of replacement level offense and defense at that position right now, much harder than for instance it would be to do so in AD's case...

7. Geez, I can hardly articulate how massively important the next 6 months will be for WK in reshaping this franchise...step 1 was the draft...I personally rely on YOU to shape my opinions there, but seemingly the Reds did a pretty good job there...next will be the time between now and July 31st...scary time simply because as I've said earlier, Krivsky hasn't proven to be able to gain value in personnel via trades (as opposed to "nonconventional" means in which he's been fantastic)...finally, the hiring of the next manager over the offseason and filling roster holes...I'm playing wait and see but it is scary how long our rebuilding could be delayed by the decisions made during this critical time...

8. Is Belisle simply arm-weary or does he lack the requisite ability to be at least a ML average #5 starter???...can Livingston survive and be moderately successful given the outrageous WHIP he's putting up??...personally, I love Livingston's mental toughness...he seems capable of making an effective pitch in big situations (I've watched him live in spring training and have been able to watch all 3 of his reg-season starts on TV)...but is his "guile" and being left-handed enough??...wonder how he'll survive his first GABP start next week??

9. We all are frustrated as Reds fans, but have you ever watched a guy go from a prince to a frog quicker than Homer Bailey :eek:...as for me, bring him back when Lohse is moved (and his groin is totally healthy)...he's a cocky, confident kid who needs to grow and WILL grow in the ML setting...there simply are too many examples of guys who had the talent and survive the growing pains of ML ready bats to think Bailey won't be special...and I'd rather him be throwing every pitch in his arm at this level than "wasting it" in AAA...not to mention, it's much more comforting thinking a non-Narron will be making decisions about Bailey's use from here on out...

10. It would be a waste to our franchise if Encarnacion, Votto, Bailey, McBeth, Salmon, Coffey (by the way, how low on the ole totem pole has that guy fallen???...wow!!!) and Burton aren't played and used every available opportunity from August 1st til the end of the season...one has to hope...I have no problem with a Stanton sighting every day right now for instance, but that's with the belief that the video of yesterday's outing against ATL was then emailed to every GM in baseball (uh Wayne, erase the video from Tuesday, okay??)

11. Maybe it's my wishful imagination, but I think the bullpen has vast potential...Cout, Gosling and Bray from the left side...Coffey, Burton, McBeth and Salmon as righty's...1 well-orchestrated move to acquire a closer (get the hard-throwing, young set-up guy of your choice-Linebrink????) and it isn't horrible...but please God, give me a manager who has some sense of bullpen management...

12. I'm hoping upon Hamilton's return that we will stop miscasting Freel...hey, great job Farney for the catch and the homer tonight, but is it so hard to just play the guy 3 times per week and let him thrive???...for that matter, aren't Hopper and Keppinger put together essentially equal to Freel (but at much less $$)???...and if not, then get rid of both of them and supplement the club in another way...wonder what trade value Freel has (seriously, what worth does he have to a team "a player away"???)...

Wow, I just previewed this...no way in heck anyone finishes this post :D...guess I had a bit of pent-up Redleg emotion...

Headed to Miami (other post)...hope to meet some of you there...