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View Full Version : Interesting charge re: offense (RISP and HR's)



muethibp
07-20-2007, 08:46 AM
From hardball times:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/ten-things-i-didnt-know-last-week40/

The bottom axis is at bats with runners in scoring position, the left axis is
average with runners in scoring position, and then the size of the
circle is home-runs (bigger the circle, the more team home runs).
Obviously you want to be as far to the top right as you can and with a
big circle. The Reds have the big circle but are camped in the lower
left providing visual evidence for the notion that we don't get
them on, over or in.

TheWalls
07-20-2007, 08:52 AM
From hardball times:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/ten-things-i-didnt-know-last-week40/

The bottom axis is at bats with runners in scoring position, the left axis is
average with runners in scoring position, and then the size of the
circle is home-runs (bigger the circle, the more team home runs).
Obviously you want to be as far to the top right as you can and with a
big circle. The Reds have the big circle but are camped in the lower
left providing visual evidence for the notion that we don't get
them on, over or in.

Cool stats. To me this represents a measure of a consistent offense. If you're getting RISP and hitting (read: not whiffing Adam) you will have much more consistent run production and less need to rely on the long ball. Let ESPN have all the long ball love they want (how are the Giants doing there, Barry?), give me a consistently productive offense, good pitching and solid defense any day.

Fil3232
07-20-2007, 09:02 AM
Cool stats. To me this represents a measure of a consistent offense. If you're getting RISP and hitting (read: not whiffing Adam) you will have much more consistent run production and less need to rely on the long ball. Let ESPN have all the long ball love they want (how are the Giants doing there, Barry?), give me a consistently productive offense, good pitching and solid defense any day.

The Reds offense is currently 4th in the NL in runs scored. It's the least of their problems. Pitching and defense are the areas of deficiency.

durl
07-20-2007, 10:29 AM
The Reds offense is currently 4th in the NL in runs scored. It's the least of their problems. Pitching and defense are the areas of deficiency.

Exactly right. This team is not good at playing little ball but they score enough runs to be competitive. Still, they do need to be better at moving runners over and getting them in. More importantly, however, is their need for a bulllpen that will hold they leads they're given.

texasdave
07-20-2007, 05:19 PM
The Reds do not get them on. (They rank 11th out of 16 teams in OBP) However, they do very well at getting them in. This is evidenced both by the fact that they are 4th in runs scored, and 2nd in percentage of scoring the baserunners who do actually reach.



Team RUNS %BRS RNS-RK %BRS-RK HR-RK OBP-RK
PHI 503 38.1% 1 3 3 1
COL 467 36.4% 2 6 9 2
MIL 461 38.7% 3 1 1 8
CIN 459 38.6% 4 2 1 11
FLA 456 37.0% 5 4 4 6
ATL 450 36.3% 6 7 5 4
LAD 449 34.9% 7 10 15 3
CHC 444 36.9% 8 5 11 8
NYM 433 35.5% 9 9 5 5
HOU 424 34.9% 10 10 7 8
STL 397 34.5% 11 14 11 7
SDP 396 35.6% 12 8 10 16
ARI 395 34.8% 13 13 7 13
SFG 391 34.5% 14 15 13 12
PIT 386 34.9% 15 10 14 15
WSN 363 32.2% 16 16 16 13


This chart shows how the various NL teams rank in getting them on (OBP-RK)
and getting them in (%BRS).

OBP-RK is straightforward. The teams are ranked by their on-base percentage.

%BRS is the number of runs divided the number of men who get on base (hits plus walks plus hbp).

It should be noted that hitting home runs seems to be a more efficient method of getting them over and in than does on-base percentage.

AtomicDumpling
07-20-2007, 06:13 PM
Notice in the chart how it doesn't correlate with winning?

Why do some people feel that "manufacturing" a run is somehow superior to hitting home runs?

It doesn't matter how you score the runs. It only matters how many you score.

Small ball is for losers. Winning teams walk often and hit home runs. Losing teams hit singles and steal bases. Obviously there are a few exceptions (like the Reds), but the past several seasons have proven this beyond doubt.