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howyoufreelin
07-20-2007, 01:16 PM
The Reds need to finish 41-25. That would put us at 82-80.

You guys think it is doable?

joshnky
07-20-2007, 01:26 PM
Somebody is a little opmistic;). This is still a very flawed baseball team regardless of who the manager is. Last year we played close to .500 ball all year and I would expect that is the best we might do the rest of the year. That would put us at 74-88 which would be a major acheivement for this team.

mound_patrol
07-20-2007, 01:30 PM
After they finish this sweep of the Marlins and then sweep the Cardinals and Brewers I'll say we have a chance.

Realistically, I think this is a lost season and I'm torn between wanting my Reds to win and wanting to get a high pick next year. It seems that all the bad luck and close losses the reds had at the beginning of the year are starting to turn around, but I'm pretty sure we dug ourselves too big of a hole to get to .500

JLB5
07-20-2007, 01:57 PM
After they finish this sweep of the Marlins and then sweep the Cardinals and Brewers I'll say we have a chance.

Realistically, I think this is a lost season and I'm torn between wanting my Reds to win and wanting to get a high pick next year. It seems that all the bad luck and close losses the reds had at the beginning of the year are starting to turn around, but I'm pretty sure we dug ourselves too big of a hole to get to .500

I have to agree with that. The Reds also have quite a few more series against winning teams in the second half (MIL & CHI x4, NYM, LA, SD, ATL). Those account for 13 of the remaining 22 series. Will be tough to win a majority of those games which would be necessary to acheive those results.

AmarilloRed
07-20-2007, 02:33 PM
It is definitely possible; however the odds are against it. Mackanin would have to manage out of his mind.

bleedsred
07-20-2007, 03:30 PM
It is definitely possible; however the odds are against it. Mackanin would have to manage out of his mind.

A few of the guys in the pen would have to forget they suck.....among many other things.

UPRedsFan
07-20-2007, 06:12 PM
Yes, it's possible if:

Bray comes back soon and pitches well
Hamilton comes back soon and resumes where he left off
Livingston continues to pitch like he has
And Weathers can't melt down in the 2nd half

Possible, but not likely.

AtomicDumpling
07-20-2007, 07:20 PM
I think it is possible, but highly unlikely.

The Reds are better than the first half indicated, and not as good as the second half indicates thus far.

The Reds are 4th in scoring and 13th in runs allowed. This to me indicates they should be in the middle of the pack. They deserve to win maybe 75-80 games. Due to their horrid May and June they won't get there though.

How can you have the 16th-best record with the 4th-best offense and 13th-best defense? Poor luck. Luck evens out over the long haul.

kxblue
07-20-2007, 07:29 PM
Yes, the Reds pythag is far better than their record. I believe M2 always says that sometimes you catch your pythag and sometimes your pythag catches you. But this time I think the Reds might actually catch their pythag.


The Reds have a better pythag than the Dbacks and are absolutely crushing the Cards.

improbus
07-21-2007, 05:36 PM
Here's a look at the past from baseball-reference. Notice that last year was the only year in which both halves of the season had somewhat similar winning percentages. Every other season had some dramatic shifts.

Reds win loss records before and after all-star break

2006
By Season Half
Split W L RS RA WP
First Half 45 44 448 463 .506
Second Half 35 38 301 338 .479

2005
By Season Half
Split W L RS RA WP
First Half 35 53 434 518 .398
Second Half 38 36 386 371 .514

2004
By Season Half
Split W L RS RA WP
First Half 47 41 411 452 .534
Second Half 29 45 339 455 .392

2003
By Season Half
Split W L RS RA WP
First Half 43 50 434 548 .462
Second Half 26 43 260 338 .377

2002
By Season Half
Split W L RS RA WP
First Half 46 41 377 398 .529
Second Half 32 43 332 376 .427

2001
By Season Half
Split W L RS RA WP
First Half 33 54 387 460 .379
Second Half 33 42 348 390 .440

2000
By Season Half
Split W L RS RA WP
First Half 43 44 441 466 .494
Second Half 42 33 384 299 .560

Screwball
07-21-2007, 05:40 PM
I have to agree with that. The Reds also have quite a few more series against winning teams in the second half (MIL & CHI x4, NYM, LA, SD, ATL). Those account for 13 of the remaining 22 series. Will be tough to win a majority of those games which would be necessary to acheive those results.

Very good point. Although, I'm not sure what the numbers say but it always seems like the Reds play to their competion - played the Mariners, Angels and Indians tough, but then get beat up on by teams like the Nationals and Pirates.

JLB5
07-21-2007, 05:53 PM
Very good point. Although, I'm not sure what the numbers say but it always seems like the Reds play to their competion - played the Mariners, Angels and Indians tough, but then get beat up on by teams like the Nationals and Pirates.

They may have played "tough" but they still lost the series with the M's and Angels and split with the Tribe. The starting pitching hit a really bad skid against the Nats and Pirates. My point is that the competition is not going to get any easier the rest of the way.

Screwball
07-21-2007, 09:44 PM
My point is that the competition is not going to get any easier the rest of the way.

And I agreed with you. But I'd much rather see them play well against good competition than poorly against other .400 teams. And by doing that, they might just be able to pull out a few more wins than they would otherwise.

improbus
07-22-2007, 12:11 AM
If anyone is willing to do the research, I would love to know what the Reds record would be without the 8th inning. Same goes for team ERA, etc...

Chi-Town Red
07-22-2007, 12:27 AM
winning season....how bout 2008

improbus
07-22-2007, 04:48 PM
I think this beat-down given by the Marlins officially put us back in our place. 10-2, 11-1, and currently 9-2...

Chi-Town Red
07-22-2007, 05:15 PM
same old Reds