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View Full Version : Will Carrol reports Conine possibly to Cubs?



redsfan4445
07-23-2007, 02:50 PM
seen on http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/
"Carroll reports that the Cubs could swap Jacque Jones and a prospect for Jeff Conine. Perhaps such a move would be in tandem with Adam Dunn leaving Cincinnati. The Cubs might want to hold on to Jones though; he's playing well lately."

Tom Servo
07-23-2007, 02:53 PM
Former Twin, Jacque Jones, of course.

Joseph
07-23-2007, 02:55 PM
His momma better come too, else no deal!

Why are we taking on bad salary?

PuffyPig
07-23-2007, 02:59 PM
Why are we taking on bad salary?

It makes no sense. We'd be better off just releasing Conine unless the prospect was major. And there's little chance that we would "effectively" buy a prospect from the Cubs.

M2
07-23-2007, 02:59 PM
Man, the Reds had better acquire something thrilling for Dunn or Jr. if the franchise expects me to endure Jacque Jones.

Tom Servo
07-23-2007, 03:02 PM
Why are we taking on bad salary?

Former Twin

wheels
07-23-2007, 03:04 PM
Oh good lord.

There is no way it's just a Jones for Conine deal what with Jones' hefty salary. Other stuff has to be in the works, and that notion scares me.

So, if it's true, they're basically swapping Dunn or Griffey for Jones.

Is "better defense" really worth it?

KronoRed
07-23-2007, 03:09 PM
Jones? I'd rather have Norris

Kc61
07-23-2007, 03:10 PM
If Jones is acquired, it is as a stopgap outfielder to fill a position for the short term. The main return for Dunn or Griffey would be pitching, perhaps minor leaguers.

You have to look at the youngsters the Reds get in any such deals before deciding good or bad. Jones would just fill a position for awhile, presumably.

Danny Serafini
07-23-2007, 03:13 PM
How much longer is Jones under contract?

dfs
07-23-2007, 03:14 PM
Oh good lord.
There is no way it's just a Jones for Conine deal what with Jones' hefty salary.

You know...nine months ago I would have agreed with you. I would have thought..."well,Will Carrol has to talk about something and if I were the cubs I would be trying to jetison Jones as well, but no GM would actually take him would they?"

Now....Now I'm just hoping the report is wrong.

BRM
07-23-2007, 03:14 PM
How much longer is Jones under contract?

Through 2008. He's set to make $5M next year.

wheels
07-23-2007, 03:14 PM
If Jones is acquired, it is as a stopgap outfielder to fill a position for the short term. The main return for Dunn or Griffey would be pitching, perhaps minor leaguers.

You have to look at the youngsters the Reds get in any such deals before deciding good or bad. Jones would just fill a position for awhile, presumably.


"Presumably" being the operative term in your post.

I'd like to think what you're surmising is true, but I'm having my doubts.

15fan
07-23-2007, 03:15 PM
Click on the url in the first post. Scroll down a couple of bullets.

"Perrotto confirms a rumor that surfaced a week ago, that Ian Snell could be had for the right bat. Perrotto would know, as he spent time as a Pirates' beat writer. Jarrod Saltalamacchia or Matt Kemp are two possible targets for the Bucs."

Snell's 2007 YTD stats (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=6072).

Going back to my thread last week...

Brandon Phillips for Ian Snell.

Deal, or No Deal?

As for Jacque Jones? Thanksbutnothanks.

Kc61
07-23-2007, 03:19 PM
"Presumably" being the operative term in your post.

I'd like to think what you're surmising is true, but I'm having my doubts.

If Dunn goes, the Reds do need somebody to play the outfield. Hamilton and Griffey would be set, but I'm assuming they will want someone to platoon in left field with Hopper or Freel.

On that basis, getting Jones makes some sense. But the key would be getting good kids back in the Dunn deal, if it happens.

flyer85
07-23-2007, 03:25 PM
I like Jones ... as a Cub.

M2
07-23-2007, 03:26 PM
Click on the url in the first post. Scroll down a couple of bullets.

"Perrotto confirms a rumor that surfaced a week ago, that Ian Snell could be had for the right bat. Perrotto would know, as he spent time as a Pirates' beat writer. Jarrod Saltalamacchia or Matt Kemp are two possible targets for the Bucs."

Snell's 2007 YTD stats (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=6072).

Going back to my thread last week...

Brandon Phillips for Ian Snell.

Deal, or No Deal?

As for Jacque Jones? Thanksbutnothanks.

I find it hard to believe that Ian Snell, already the greatest pitcher ever to emerge from the state of Delaware, is available.

Though before Phillips for Snell hit the table, there would be an extensive Josh Hamilton for Ian Snell discussion.

M2
07-23-2007, 03:28 PM
On that basis, getting Jones makes some sense.

The way Jones is hitting these days, I'm not sure if he even makes sense for the Omaha Royals.

WVRedsFan
07-23-2007, 03:35 PM
Now maybe everyone understands why I fear this trading deadline. This GM just makes no sense. We do not need a light-hitting, aging outfielder.
shades of Royce Clayton, the gold glove shortstop, eh?

And regardless of what anyone says, Wayne does have a Minnesota fetish if this comes to pass. Heck, the fact that he might even be thinking about it is unbelievable.

Tom Servo
07-23-2007, 03:37 PM
If Wayne is looking for a stopgap outfielder to replace Griffey/Dunn who won't cost an arm and a leg on the market, I think he should acquire Emil Brown. He's a trainwreck in the outfield but he's a righthanded bat with good power. I could seem him really mashing at the GABP.

flyer85
07-23-2007, 03:38 PM
Now maybe everyone understands why I fear this trading deadline. ... We do not need a light-hitting, aging outfielder.
shades of Royce Clayton, the gold glove shortstop, eh?
It what scares people that aren't fans of WK. The FO seems to overvalue perceived ability on defense and contact on offense.

Patrick Bateman
07-23-2007, 03:39 PM
At one point, as early as last season Jones had some relevancy as he did have 25 homer power which would play pretty well in our park.

But as an expensive player that can't get on base, and apparently has lot all of his power, there isn't one reason why he should be in anybody's line-up. As of right now, Jones is basically bad at every aspect of the game. He wasn't worth his salary when he was hitting the 25 homers.

Grabbing Jones a couple of years ago would be a bad idea, but at this point it would be indefensable. I would hope that there is more to this rumour such as the prospect being really good for having to pay Jones, or the Cubs paying just about all of Jones' salary so there would be no real risk to the deal. At least then when Jones stinks up the joint the Reds wouldn't have lost anything other than Jeff Conine, rather than important payroll room too. My main scare would be Jones playing well for the remainder of the season and fooling the Reds into thinking that he would be a fine everyday OF option for next year.

flyer85
07-23-2007, 03:40 PM
If the Reds are looking for a RH OF bat I would inquire about Hairston of Arizona. He is inexpensive and has no future with the Snakes. He would be a nice low cost gamble.

M2
07-23-2007, 03:45 PM
If Wayne is looking for a stopgap outfielder to replace Griffey/Dunn who won't cost an arm and a leg on the market, I think he should acquire Emil Brown. He's a trainwreck in the outfield but he's a righthanded bat with good power. I could seem him really mashing at the GABP.

Plus, he had a good season with Louisville back in 2003. The Reds released him shortly after the season during the Kullman/Maddox interregnum. Mind you, he's hitting worse than Jones these days.

Kc61
07-23-2007, 03:46 PM
At one point, as early as last season Jones had some relevancy as he did have 25 homer power which would play pretty well in our park.

My main scare would be Jones playing well for the remainder of the season and fooling the Reds into thinking that he would be a fine everyday OF option for next year.

I would rather see the Reds acquire a centerfielder than a guy like Jones. That way Hamilton can play a corner, at which he would excel, with the other corner manned by the remaining Griffey or Dunn. If the guy could play center for the short term, would be less concerned about his bat.

Getting a stopgap outfielder makes sense, but I'd prefer a centerfield type.

CTA513
07-23-2007, 03:58 PM
If Matt Murton is available, then they should try and get him over Jacque Jones. Murton is at least a right handed bat that could help out Triple-A Louisville if he doesn't join the Reds.

RedLegSuperStar
07-23-2007, 04:00 PM
Through 2008. He's set to make $5M next year.

Conine makes what.. 2-3 million? If we can get Jones and a prospect for Conine.. that's not a bad deal. Jones has speed and has pop and who knows.. he could increase his value at GABP and then we deal him next year. Having a line-up that looks like this:

Freel 3B
Jones CF
Griffey RF
Phillips 2B
Dunn LF
Hatteberg 1B
Gonzalez SS
Ross C

That's not to shabby.. especially for a 41 year old OF/1B/Bench player. I'm going to be the outsider.. I like the deal.

PuffyPig
07-23-2007, 04:04 PM
Conine makes what.. 2-3 million? If we can get Jones and a prospect for Conine.. that's not a bad deal. Jones has speed and has pop and who knows.. he could increase his value at GABP and then we deal him next year. Having a line-up that looks like this:

Freel 3B
Jones CF
Griffey RF
Phillips 2B
Dunn LF
Hatteberg 1B
Gonzalez SS
Ross C

That's not to shabby.. especially for a 41 year old OF/1B/Bench player. I'm going to be the outsider.. I like the deal.

I kinda like Hamilton and EE in the lineup better. Cheaper and better is better than more expensive and worse.

Roy Tucker
07-23-2007, 04:06 PM
Some background...

http://chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/cs-070721cubsbrite,1,6437709.story?coll=cs-cubs-headlines

Clear sailing after Jones clears mind
All-Star break just boost Cubs outfielder needed

By Dave van Dyck
Tribune staff reporter

July 21, 2007, 6:51 PM CDT

When things were at their worst July 4, when Jacque Jones was hitting .167 over 40 games and rumored on the Cubs' discard list, he admits to wondering if he still could play the game.

"We all lose confidence and if you say you don't in that situation, then you're lying," Jones said. "I know I have ability, but sometimes the mental keeps you really from coming out. I was down on myself a little bit and it started to snowball.

"When you're not playing well, you still would like to contribute to the team. When you don't, you start pressing."

Starting July 5 in Washington, Jones started playing like he had for the last eight years. Since then he is 13-for-34 with four doubles and six RBIs. Of his 26 RBIs for the season, 18 have come with two outs.

In the last three days he has seven hits, including a double Saturday against Arizona that started a two-run rally.

The turnaround has coincided with the All-Star break when he says "four days of nothing but being with my family and kids," helped clear his mind.

Since then he again has become the starting center fielder for the Cubs and the trade rumors have died down. Some believe the proposed trade with Florida that fell through played with Jones' mind. He denies that.

"That never came to my mind," he said. "Sometimes they say one man's loss is another man's treasure.

"I never really thought about them not wanting me or needing me or anything like that. It's just the nature of the game. It's not like they didn't want Michael [Barrett]. For whatever reason they traded him."

Manager Lou Piniella, who at times seemed like he had forgotten about Jones while he played rookie Felix Pie, credits Jones for "always playing hard and hustling."

"He's coming on, and now is when we need him. He has been improving steadily the last couple of weeks, and he does a real nice job out in center field. He's capable of having a nice second half."

The first half was forgettable, despite Jones having battered hands from taking extra batting practice.

"No matter what you do, this game is set on its own time," he said. "Sometimes it doesn't matter how much time you put in, how much work you do, when it's your time you will get hot."

Now Jones has turned the Wrigley Field boos into cheers and the Cubs have turned losing into winning, with his help.

"It's always fun to win," he said. "Winning cures everything. When you win, everything is good."

Copyright 2007, The Chicago Tribune

RedLegSuperStar
07-23-2007, 04:09 PM
I kinda like Hamilton and EE in the lineup better. Cheaper and better is better than more expensive and worse.

I agree with you.. especially Hamilton. I'm sure he'll be on a rehab assignment some time this week.

Johnny Footstool
07-23-2007, 04:28 PM
The point of getting Jones would be to immediately flip him. The Marlins want him and tried to trade for him, but the deal fell through.

If the cost is Conine plus a couple million, and the Reds get a prospect, too, they should do it.

Ltlabner
07-23-2007, 04:58 PM
# YEAR NAME PA EqA OBP SLG VORP RAR RAP
12. 2007 Luke Scott 268 .269 .328 .459 5.3 11.1 -1.2
13. 2007 Jeremy Hermida 237 .263 .331 .424 2.4 8.2 -2.3
14. 2007 Austin Kearns 400 .250 .328 .368 -0.4 7.8 -9.5
15. 2007 Jacque Jones 271 .228 .305 .339 -5.8 -0.6 -11.8
16. 2007 Carlos Quentin 232 .229 .299 .350 -7.0 -0.3 -11

Yuck.

Unless it's part of a crafy series of moves to acquire someone(s) else, I'd say pass and keep passing. Currently he's 15th on a list of NL right fielders, ranked by VORP. He's stinking it out thus far this year. Over the past 3 years he's put up these sorts of numbers....



Jacque Jones
Year Tm Lg PA OBP SLG EqA
2004 MIN MJ 608 .315 .427 .252
2005 MIN MJ 585 .319 .438 .269
2006 CHN MJ 577 .334 .499 .280

The team needs a right handed power bat. Jones is neither. Even if you traded Jr, started Freel in CF and Hamilton in RF until the end of the year (by which time, or at which time Freel would be traded) you'd be better off than with Jones. At least with Freel you have some actual speed (if he can avoid being picked off/caught steeling) and he's a heck of a lot cheeper. Hamilton can definatley out hit Jones and has decent speed too. Can he stay healthy? What better way to find out than to trot him out there every remaining day of this lost season?

In addition to being another lefty bat, his OBP is pretty lame. Why add another out machine to a line up that is pretty OBP deprived to begin with?

Stay away. Stay very far away.

Tom Servo
07-23-2007, 05:08 PM
I really like Johnny's idea of trading for Jones and then flipping him to Florida. Unfortunatly I suspect that isn't Wayne's thinking.

Red Leader
07-23-2007, 05:10 PM
I really like Johnny's idea of trading for Jones and then flipping him to Florida. Unfortunatly I suspect that isn't Wayne's thinking.

You never know. Wayne has done it before (Cody Ross).

Tom Servo
07-23-2007, 05:17 PM
You never know. Wayne has done it before (Cody Ross).
That's true. That deal by Wayne is bothersome though, trading for Ross and trading him away while keeping McCracken.


I think a big thing to remember here is that I can't think of one single trade under Krivsky's reign that was rumored and actually came true. Wayne's trades tend to come out of nowhere.

PuffyPig
07-23-2007, 05:19 PM
The point of getting Jones would be to immediately flip him. The Marlins want him and tried to trade for him, but the deal fell through.



If he could be flipped, the Cubs would trade him already.

He has negative value at this stage. Stay away from him if possible.

I still think releasing Conine is a better option than trading him for Jones and a prospect, unless the prospect is primo or the Cubs picked up a bunch of next years salary.

M2
07-23-2007, 05:22 PM
I wonder if it would be possible to snag Jeremy Hermida while his value's low?

Johnny Footstool
07-23-2007, 05:32 PM
If he could be flipped, the Cubs would trade him already.

He has negative value at this stage. Stay away from him if possible.

I still think releasing Conine is a better option than trading him for Jones and a prospect, unless the prospect is primo or the Cubs picked up a bunch of next years salary.

The Marlins wanted him, but they couldn't work out the right deal, possibly because of Jones' salary.

Wayne would be smart to step in and make it a three-way trade:

Cubs give up Jones + a prospect and get Conine
Marlins give up a good prospect or two and get Jones + cash
Reds give up Conine + cash and get prospects from Cubs and Marlins

redsmetz
07-23-2007, 05:39 PM
So because this guy says this rumor, it makes it so? I don't get the angst sometimes - these guys I think just throw darts at the board and make it up.

TOBTTReds
07-23-2007, 05:43 PM
Unfortunatly I suspect that isn't Wayne's thinking.

I think it is safe to say that he has covered all the bases. He is a Major League GM, give the man SOME credit. I think it is ridiculous how little credit people give WK as if he is some moron.

Ltlabner
07-23-2007, 05:48 PM
I wonder if it would be possible to snag Jeremy Hermida while his value's low?

Interesting player...


Year Tm Lg PA OBP SLG EqA VORP
2004 JUP 1C 393 .377 .441 .278 13.7
2005 CAR 2A 507 .457 .518 .318 41.4
2005 FLO MJ 47 .383 .634 .330 6.1
2006 JUP 1C 20 .300 .235 .210 -2.0
2006 FLO MJ 348 .332 .368 .257 -0.2

Year PA OBP SLG EqA
Prjctd 07 452 .378 .479 .294
Actual 07 205 .331 .424 .263

Looks like he forgot how to take a walk in 2006 and his power and eqa took a dip also. Injury? Adjustment to MLB?

But he could give you roughly equilvlent performance to Jones and is many years younger and far cheeper.

M2
07-23-2007, 05:59 PM
Looks like he forgot how to take a walk in 2006 and his power and eqa took a dip also. Injury? Adjustment to MLB?

IIRC, he got banged up a bit, but my guess for the dip is he was only 22 years-old. His sin may be that he's not Miguel Cabrera or Hanley Ramirez, ready to major league pitching at an insanely young age. So the Fish rushed him and now maybe they'll rush to impatience.

Ltlabner
07-23-2007, 06:02 PM
IIRC, he got banged up a bit, but my guess for the dip is he was only 22 years-old. His sin may be that he's not Miguel Cabrera or Hanley Ramirez, ready to major league pitching at an insanely young age. So the Fish rushed him and now maybe they'll rush to impatience.

Makes sense. He'd be handy to have around if Jr is traded. Mix him in with Hamilton and Dunn for a few years until (if) Bruce comes along. Could be an interesting OF. Hamilton and Hermida's low cost offsets Dunn's payraise. You'd still have Norris Hopper and other AAAA types around to be a 4th out fielder type.

RedEye
07-23-2007, 06:36 PM
I think it is safe to say that he has covered all the bases. He is a Major League GM, give the man SOME credit. I think it is ridiculous how little credit people give WK as if he is some moron.

So far, I'd say Wayne's made one good trade (Pena for Arroyo), one colossal mistake, and a number of small-but-slightly-misguided trades (Harris? Ross? Cormier? the list goes on).

I'm really hoping that he makes a trade this deadline that proves The Trade was the exception rather than the rule.

Matt700wlw
07-23-2007, 06:46 PM
So far, I'd say Wayne's made one good trade (Pena for Arroyo),

Phillips? Hamilton?

No, they weren't blockbuster, but he absolutely robbed the Indians and Cubs (who actually picked up Hamilton in the rule V draft).

Now they're part of this team's core, and could be stars for a long, long time

oneupper
07-23-2007, 06:48 PM
I still think releasing Conine is a better option than trading him for Jones and a prospect, unless the prospect is primo or the Cubs picked up a bunch of next years salary.

Why not put Conine on waivers? Let someone pay his salary this year (instead of releasing him).

BRM
07-23-2007, 06:53 PM
Conine is mentioned in this blurb in the Star-Ledger.



The Yankees aren't sure they're ready to deal reliever Scott Proctor straight-up for a utility piece like Tampa Bay's Ty Wigginton or Cincinnati's Jeff Conine. They'd like to get a bullpen arm back as well.

RedEye
07-23-2007, 06:54 PM
Phillips? Hamilton?

No, they weren't blockbuster, but he absolutely robbed the Indians and Cubs (who actually picked up Hamilton in the rule V draft).

Now they're part of this team's core, and could be stars for a long, long time

Okay, you have a point. He is fairly good at picking up talent on the cheap. However, he's also shown that he's fairly good at losing it (Harris, Germano, Ross).

I guess what I mean is that Wayne has yet to show that he is good at making high-leverage deals. Arroyo has been a valuable acquisition, but The Trade was a fiasco. I think the next big deal might break the tie.

PuffyPig
07-23-2007, 07:03 PM
Why not put Conine on waivers? Let someone pay his salary this year (instead of releasing him).

Oh, I didn't mean we SHOULD release him. I'm just saying that releasing him would be better than picking up Jones' salary. It would cost us less.

We could fine someone to pay Conine's salary if we wanted.

PuffyPig
07-23-2007, 07:05 PM
Phillips? Hamilton?

No, they weren't blockbuster, but he absolutely robbed the Indians and Cubs (who actually picked up Hamilton in the rule V draft).

Now they're part of this team's core, and could be stars for a long, long time

I don't think we robbed the Cubs as much as robbing Tampa bay.

The Cubs had no interest in Hamilton. They agreed to allowing us to pick. They didn't know who we were picking until the deal was set. It's not like they picked Hamilton and then decided to trade him to us.

Outshined_One
07-23-2007, 07:07 PM
Some perspective on this from the other side of the table...

The Jacque Jones to the Marlins deal fell through because of money, but not because the Marlins were unhappy with what the Cubs were offering. The Cubs were basically going to pay the remainder of his salary save for the minimum, meaning the Marlins were going to get Jones for nothing salary-wise. Jim Hendry pulled the plug because he felt he was giving up too much money for not enough return (rumored to be Graham Taylor (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Graham%20Taylor&pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=501869) or Sean West (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Sean%20West&pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=476811)). There was a period of time when everyone from Bud Selig to Sam Zell (new Chicago Tribune owner) to the groundskeeper was rumored to have nixed the deal, but it has since been cleared up that Jim Hendry was the one who put the kibosh on that deal.

Jones' biggest problem is that he doesn't fit into the Cubs' OF. Alfonso Soriano has laid claim over LF for the foreseeable future. Jones can play CF adequately, but uber-prospect Felix Pie (who was up with the Cubs briefly this season) is killing the ball down in AAA (6 HRs in the past ten days) and could be called up in the near future. Jones' future in CF doesn't look good. RF is pretty much a mess, as Cliff Floyd, Matt Murton, and Jones could all lay claim to it, but none of them have contributed much offensively or defensively from that position during the time they played. Jones has a nasty problem with his throws where he has a tendency to spike the ball, meaning he's pretty easy to run on.

On top of that, Jones can't hit LHP to save his life. He can't even hit RHP that well, either. He's not an everyday player at this point in his career. However, Jones does not see himself this way and has voiced some disappointment over his lack of playing time. The theory is that he was a huge supporter of Dusty Baker and that he was upset when the Cubs opted not to re-sign Baker.

So, it's not much of a secret the Cubs are trying to trade him. He's not producing at the level of a guy making $5m a year. At this point, it wouldn't surprise me to see the Cubs just dump him for whoever is willing to take on his contract. Jeff Conine is a bit of a head-scratcher, but he's been rumored to be coming to the Cubs a number of times over the past few years, so this doesn't really surprise me.

BrooklynRedz
07-23-2007, 07:09 PM
Okay, you have a point. He is fairly good at picking up talent on the cheap. However, he's also shown that he's fairly good at losing it (Harris, Germano, Ross).

I guess what I mean is that Wayne has yet to show that he is good at making high-leverage deals. Arroyo has been a valuable acquisition, but The Trade was a fiasco. I think the next big deal might break the tie.

Whoa. You're poo-pooing the loss of Harris, Germano and/or Ross? Yowzas!

Reds Nd2
07-23-2007, 07:10 PM
That was a pre-arranged deal with the Cubs. The Cubs got $50,000 from the Reds just for making the pick. Can't really say they robbed them.

But to your original point, both Phillips and Hamilton are feathers in Krivs hat. It looks like this one.

http://www.custermen.com/ItalyWW2/ArmyOrg/Alpini_6Regt.jpg

Ltlabner
07-23-2007, 07:13 PM
If Matt Murton is available, then they should try and get him over Jacque Jones. Murton is at least a right handed bat that could help out Triple-A Louisville if he doesn't join the Reds.

Murton is another excellent target for a Conine trade. He's apparently either fallen out of favor with Lou or just can't get any playing time with the raft of outfielders on the Cubs.


Year Tm Lg PA OBP SLG EqA VORP
2004 SAR 1C 425 .372 .452 .268 8.2
2004 DAY 1C 89 .326 .367 .223 -6.8
2005 WTN 2A 350 .403 .498 .295 21.6
2005 IOW 3A 38 .421 .500 .310 4.1
2005 CHN MJ 160 .386 .521 .308 12.5
2006 CHN MJ 508 .365 .444 .278 16.2


PA OBP SLG EqA
Projct 2007 507 .365 .476 .281
Actual 2007 119 .331 .336 .237

Those VORP numbers are for LF (I think) so if you slide him over to RF they aren't very usefull. But as CTA pointed out he's a right handed bat. He gets on base at a healthy clip and this line up could use some more contact storta guys, especially if Hatteburg is sent packing. He also has decent power (which will definatley get a GABP boost).

But as in the case of Hermida from Flordia, he can give you at least equal production to Jacque Jones, is only 25 and is much cheeper. I'd love to see him in a Reds uni.

TOBTTReds
07-23-2007, 07:14 PM
So far, I'd say Wayne's made one good trade (Pena for Arroyo), one colossal mistake, and a number of small-but-slightly-misguided trades (Harris? Ross? Cormier? the list goes on).

I'm really hoping that he makes a trade this deadline that proves The Trade was the exception rather than the rule.

I think you are missing what this organization looks like compared to what it was when he got here. Do you realize that if DanO was here still, I am 99% sure we would:

Have a worse catcher than David Ross, or it would be LaRue
Not have an above avg 2B
Not have Hatteberg
Not have Josh Hamilton

Those guys are a huge part of this team. I fault him for TWO things, The Trade, which as it turns out just looks crappy from both ends, and Stubbs (whereas the jury is still out). Other than that, his drafts have looked pretty good, people are healthy in our system, and he knows how to grow talent.

He was handed what was considered the 2nd worst (Nats are worst) organizations in baseball, and has made it respectable, no matter what our record says.

Chip R
07-23-2007, 07:23 PM
So because this guy says this rumor, it makes it so? I don't get the angst sometimes - these guys I think just throw darts at the board and make it up.


Everything is basically a rumor. From Gammons to Carroll to McCoy to Olney. None of thse guys know for sure that what they hear is going to happen but they are going to report it. It doesn't really matter if they are making it up or if it came straight from a general manager. Until it happens, it's just a rumor. And that's all we have to go on.

Mario-Rijo
07-23-2007, 07:53 PM
From The Mill at BP.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6485

The Reds have a couple pitchers they would deal, and would listen to offers for Bronson Arroyo, but Wayne Krivsky's prices have been more Neiman Marcus than Wal-Mart.

Several teams mention that the Cubs seem to be hanging around the periphery of most talks, trying to figure out ways to make the deals they want without taking on any money. One possibility that I heard was moving Jacque Jones and a prospect for Jeff Conine.

Krivsky isn't the one offering this deal so it's not as if he necc. wants Jones, it's a situation where the Cubs are offering it. And Conine apparently has interest from several suitors. Bottom line, we aren't likely to deal Conine there unless the prospect is a very good one. The Cubs cannot take on money (the impending sale) and that's the only reason it's structured this way. So in effect they either pony big time (for that mythical championship run) or sorry Conine to a real contender.

If Krivsky is smart he'll steal a good prospect from Chicago and then turn around and cover what's left of Jones salary this season and deal him to the Marlins for a prospect with a decent chance at least. He basically would kill in that scenario, he gets 2 solid prospects for Jeff Conine and cash that's almost unfair to the other teams. Another thing Krivsky could pull off is dealing Gonzo with about 2 mill back to Florida for Hermida. Then the Marlins could move Hanley Ramirez out of the SS position (something they will eventually do anyhow due to his defense) to CF. It would work for all IMO, unless of course the Marlins don't want Gonzo back or wouldn't take him at 5 mill per over the next 2 years.

But if they would we then would get out from under Gonzo's remaining salary and play P-Lo at SS for the rest of the season to see if he can be a longer term answer. If his bat comes around this kid could be yet another Krivsky steal. His defense looks stellar IMO.

Of course I would rather try to deal them Jones 1st and then perhaps try to deal them Gonzo later in the month or in the offseason.

redsmetz
07-23-2007, 08:03 PM
Everything is basically a rumor. From Gammons to Carroll to McCoy to Olney. None of thse guys know for sure that what they hear is going to happen but they are going to report it. It doesn't really matter if they are making it up or if it came straight from a general manager. Until it happens, it's just a rumor. And that's all we have to go on.

My point, Chip, is folks are jumping to all sorts of conclusions about the GM as if this were fact, not fantasy. The one thing we've come to learn about Krivsky is that he is tight-lipped when it comes to trades. I'm just surprised at how much RZ works itself into a frenzy over mere rumors.

Gainesville Red
07-23-2007, 08:10 PM
I'm just surprised at how much RZ works itself into a frenzy over mere rumors.

You act like I have anything better to do. ;)

Patrick Bateman
07-23-2007, 08:19 PM
I would rather see the Reds acquire a centerfielder than a guy like Jones. That way Hamilton can play a corner, at which he would excel, with the other corner manned by the remaining Griffey or Dunn. If the guy could play center for the short term, would be less concerned about his bat.

Getting a stopgap outfielder makes sense, but I'd prefer a centerfield type.

I agree. My point wasn't to suggest picking up Jones was a good idea, but if the Reds didn't pay much salary for him, Jones could be a useful bench player/platoon player. If his role ever got much beyond that he would be trouble, but when used correctly he could have his uses.

I'm afraid Krivsky sees him as more than that. I definitely would like to see the Reds find a true CF'der if Dunn/Griffey is moved.

RedEye
07-23-2007, 08:26 PM
Whoa. You're poo-pooing the loss of Harris, Germano and/or Ross? Yowzas!

No, I didn't mean to poo-poo those losses... I meant to imply that those were bad moves on Wayne's part that almost cancel out the kudos he gets for acquiring BP and Hammy. I think they were very serious mistakes, and they prove that WK is a gambler on low risk/ high reward players -- but not always the smartest guy at the table. Sometimes he gets lucky, sometimes he folds at the worst time possible.

RedEye
07-23-2007, 08:31 PM
I think you are missing what this organization looks like compared to what it was when he got here. Do you realize that if DanO was here still, I am 99% sure we would:

Have a worse catcher than David Ross, or it would be LaRue
Not have an above avg 2B
Not have Hatteberg
Not have Josh Hamilton

Those guys are a huge part of this team. I fault him for TWO things, The Trade, which as it turns out just looks crappy from both ends, and Stubbs (whereas the jury is still out). Other than that, his drafts have looked pretty good, people are healthy in our system, and he knows how to grow talent.

He was handed what was considered the 2nd worst (Nats are worst) organizations in baseball, and has made it respectable, no matter what our record says.

It's possible that I am exaggerating Wayne's faults, but surely you are amplifying his positive traits. The moves you list are baby steps in the right direction IMO, but it is WAY too early to consider Wayne someone who "knows how to grow talent."

I have a hard time seeing this roster as respectable. We have three or four good offensive talents, one good SP, one borderline to average SP, and a bunch of useless bullpen fodder. We have one of the worst records in baseball. I'm having a hard time seeing through your rose-colored "respectable" glasses at this time. I hope I'll share them soon.

Patrick Bateman
07-23-2007, 08:31 PM
No, I didn't mean to poo-poo those losses... I meant to imply that those were bad moves on Wayne's part that almost cancel out the kudos he gets for acquiring BP and Hammy. I think they were very serious mistakes, and they prove that WK is a gambler on low risk/ high reward players -- but not always the smartest guy at the table. Sometimes he gets lucky, sometimes he folds at the worst time possible.

None of those guys are more than spare parts IMO. I honestly don't see how they come even close to cancelling out Phillips and Hamilton. Harris would be nice to have back as the back-up infielder, but the loss of Germano/Ross doesn't faze me the slightest.

Krivsky's main blemishes to date are picking up obviously bad players that served no purpose and "The Trade".

Chip R
07-23-2007, 08:32 PM
My point, Chip, is folks are jumping to all sorts of conclusions about the GM as if this were fact, not fantasy. The one thing we've come to learn about Krivsky is that he is tight-lipped when it comes to trades. I'm just surprised at how much RZ works itself into a frenzy over mere rumors.


I see your point but what do you expect, for people to say nothing until a deal is done? I don't see why you're surprised. People are still in a frenzy over the Kearns/Lopez trade and that actually happened. Since we don't have facts to work with, we just have to go with rumors.

PuffyPig
07-23-2007, 08:34 PM
No, I didn't mean to poo-poo those losses... I meant to imply that those were bad moves on Wayne's part that almost cancel out the kudos he gets for acquiring BP and Hammy. I think they were very serious mistakes, and they prove that WK is a gambler on low risk/ high reward players -- but not always the smartest guy at the table. Sometimes he gets lucky, sometimes he folds at the worst time possible.

Firstly, the Reds acquired Germano, Harris and Ross at very little cost.

Germano was availble to anyone after the Reds traded him when the Phillies placed him on waivers.

If you think that the value of Ross, Harris and Germano equte to Hamilton ahd Phillips, I ain't gonna nominate you for GM.

IslandRed
07-23-2007, 08:37 PM
The Cubs cannot take on money (the impending sale) and that's the only reason it's structured this way.

If there's something to this, it's an angle to work, that's for sure. Hey Cubs, want a playoff berth in return for all that money you spent, but all of a sudden you can't spend any more? We'll give you Conine AND we'll take some money off your hands so you can swing another deal. Sure, it'll cost you Mr. Stud Prospect, but you didn't spend all that money to worry about next year, did you?

Maybe that's a way to obtain one of those good young rotation prospects that are about as easy to obtain these days as the keys to Fort Knox. Assuming the Cubs have any. I haven't looked lately.

RedEye
07-23-2007, 09:28 PM
Firstly, the Reds acquired Germano, Harris and Ross at very little cost.

Germano was availble to anyone after the Reds traded him when the Phillies placed him on waivers.

If you think that the value of Ross, Harris and Germano equte to Hamilton ahd Phillips, I ain't gonna nominate you for GM.

I don't think that they cancel out those moves, not at all. I think Phillips and Hammy are WK's best moves to date. I may have overstated my case.

I do think, however, that those other three could have been quite a bit more than spare parts, and that the subsequent transactions show a lack of good judgment. We gave away Harris for nothing, and I think he'd look a lot better at short than Castro or Lopez (and maybe even Gonzo, now that I come to think of it). This team is in serious need of pitching after Harang and Bronson (what else is new?), and Germano has been great for the Pads this year. He'd be a much better option than Livingston, I think. Again, we gave him away for nothing. Ross has been injury-prone with his new team, but he's a solid bat off the bench if nothing else. He's also someone who could fill in on a short-term basis if Junior or Dunn got traded. Our OF looks pretty thin now with one of those guys gone, especially with how injury-prone Freel and Hamilton seem to be.

Yes, WK acquired these parts for nothing... but he also let them go for much the same. IMO, a good GM knows both how to acquire talent and how to maximize the talent acquired. WK knows the first part, but he's a bit unproven at the second.

Outshined_One
07-23-2007, 09:28 PM
There's a lot of uncertainty regarding whether the Cubs can add money in a trade due to the impending sale. The front office has come out numerous times and said they have the payroll flexibility, but nobody knows if it's the truth. Furthermore, if it is the truth, no one knows how much flexibility that is.


Maybe that's a way to obtain one of those good young rotation prospects that are about as easy to obtain these days as the keys to Fort Knox. Assuming the Cubs have any. I haven't looked lately.

Eh...the pitching prospects for the Cubs have taken a hit this year. In terms of the big names...

Sean Gallagher: Misused as a long reliever in the majors this season, yo-yo'd between AA, AAA, and the majors. Top pitching prospect and arguably the top prospect in the system. Probably a 2/3 guy.

Donald Veal: Looked promising last season, but BBs have just killed him in AA. He could put it together, but guys with his kinds of problems usually don't live up to their ceilings.

Jeff Samardzija: Ugh.

Mark Pawelek: Broke his non-pitching arm, not back in rehab yet.

Billy Petrick: Recovering nicely from shoulder surgery as a reliever. If he can regain his stuff as a starter, he'll probably be a 2/3 guy. We'll see.

Mitch Atkins: Doing very well in the FSL, but he's more of a back of the rotation kind of guy stuff-wise.

After that, there's a mish-mash of guys who are either inconsistent with high ceilings, injured, or producing well with low ceilings.

Don't get your hopes up about getting a decent prospect from the Cubs in this deal if it happens. The system isn't exactly brimming with A-level pitching prospects at the moment.

Mario-Rijo
07-23-2007, 09:52 PM
Conine + Lohse = 6.2 Million in '07 - In '08 Nothing

J. Jones + Sean Marshall = right about 6 million in '07 - 6 Mill in '08


Hmmm, how about this deal? Cubbies how about it, no. How about we toss in Freel (who plays CF for Chicago if Pie doesn't pan out this season) and 2.5 Mill in cold hard cash? Ok, deal!

RedEye
07-23-2007, 10:09 PM
Sean Marshall is pretty darn good. I suppose I could stomach a year or so of Jacques Jones if he is our #3 starter... and he's a lefty to complement our two top righties!

4256 Hits
07-23-2007, 10:10 PM
I don't think the problem so much is the dumping of Germano, Harris and Ross it is the crap that was put on the 25 man roster in their place.

Danny Serafini
07-23-2007, 10:44 PM
645

685

One of those numbers is Germano's ERA this month. The other is Harris' OPS this month. I think the phrase "regressing to the mean" is starting to apply.

RedEye
07-23-2007, 10:44 PM
I don't think the problem so much is the dumping of Germano, Harris and Ross it is the crap that was put on the 25 man roster in their place.

True... but if we'd kept them, we wouldn't have needed that crap.

edabbs44
07-23-2007, 11:22 PM
645

685

One of those numbers is Germano's ERA this month. The other is Harris' OPS this month. I think the phrase "regressing to the mean" is starting to apply.

Germano has 9 quality starts in 13 tries this year. That's pretty damn good for this team, no matter what happens next. Especially for what he would have been paid.

Plus, he pitches much better on the road vs at home this season, so the SD ballpark doesn't really come into play.

coachw513
07-23-2007, 11:24 PM
I think a big thing to remember here is that I can't think of one single trade under Krivsky's reign that was rumored and actually came true. Wayne's trades tend to come out of nowhere.

Totally agree...was surmising the same thing today myself...THE trade was certainly a great example of that...the more "juice" Reds sources and others can create for potential trades, the better...anything to up the ante...

coachw513
07-23-2007, 11:32 PM
I think you are missing what this organization looks like compared to what it was when he got here. Do you realize that if DanO was here still, I am 99% sure we would:

Have a worse catcher than David Ross, or it would be LaRue
Not have an above avg 2B
Not have Hatteberg
Not have Josh Hamilton

Those guys are a huge part of this team. I fault him for TWO things, The Trade, which as it turns out just looks crappy from both ends, and Stubbs (whereas the jury is still out). Other than that, his drafts have looked pretty good, people are healthy in our system, and he knows how to grow talent.

He was handed what was considered the 2nd worst (Nats are worst) organizations in baseball, and has made it respectable, no matter what our record says.

Agreed...that being said, the decisions made in the next 10 days and over this coming offseason will define this franchise for the next 5 years minimum...Wayne "failed" last trade deadline, or at least we could say he "didn't pass"...this year it isn't about moving marginal pieces...it's about the enormity of Dunn/Griffey futures along trying to find adequate return for the spare parts...I'm hopeful, but just haven't seen WK handle this element of acquisitions sucessfully so far...

Patrick Bateman
07-23-2007, 11:33 PM
Germano has 9 quality starts in 13 tries this year. That's pretty damn good for this team, no matter what happens next. Especially for what he would have been paid.

Plus, he pitches much better on the road vs at home this season, so the SD ballpark doesn't really come into play.

He's basically gotten by with luck and good defense.

Germano isn't such a bad guy to have around as a back-end guy/depth, but I don't see the big deal here. He's a marginal soft tosser that gets by with good location. We have seen enough of those to see what happens in this ballpark with a bad defense.

I would have preffered that he stuck around because he did represent depth that's better than the other slugs you find for nothing, but in the short and long term, losing out on Germano is going to be pretty meaningless.

Overall his game is pretty similar to Matt Belisle. He makes his career out of good location. The main difference is that Belisle has a little better bat missing stuff. That's the main difference between being a good back of the rotation starter and more of a AAAA type.

Obviously it sounds strange calling Belisle clearly better than Germano, but if you put Belisle in Petco, with a top notch defense behind him much like Germano has, you would see drastically improved numbers. Don't let the surroundings of Germano that he can't control fool you, he's nothing special. It's the same reason why San Diego has been continuously churning out quality bullpen options.

Mario-Rijo
07-24-2007, 12:00 AM
Germano has 9 quality starts in 13 tries this year. That's pretty damn good for this team, no matter what happens next. Especially for what he would have been paid.

Plus, he pitches much better on the road vs at home this season, so the SD ballpark doesn't really come into play.

He also is a pitch to contact kinda guy with a pretty good defense behind him Sans Kouzmanoff. Cameron, K. Greene, Adrian Gonzales, M. Giles, B. Giles, Josh Bard and even LF is above avg with a former CF Cruz Jr.

And he is at his worse when the hits are getting through, put him on this club he is quickly sent to AAA. Maybe they shouldn't have dealt him (and definitely not for Cormier) but he certainly wasn't going to help us for awhile.