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The Snow Chief
07-25-2007, 10:38 AM
advocate trading possibly the best starting pitching prospect in baseball in a season that is effectively over for a 3rd baseman OPSing 750 with a 260 BA. (and I think Zimmerman is a good 3B). I don't know if it was the BRM who won without great pitching that convinces this town that it can be done again or what. This town loves leatherpants baseball.

I'm sure I'll never be invited to post on the ORG but after reading that thread, it doesn't bother me one bit.

kaldaniels
07-25-2007, 10:48 AM
I can't believe how fast and how many have jumped off the Bailey bandwagon. Thats fine with me...gives me more leg room. :beerme:

ochoa30
07-25-2007, 10:53 AM
I have to agree with you. i read that also and it is unbelievable that people who call themselves intelligent baseball fans would give up on a 21 year old kid who showed some good and some bad. I like zimmerman but in 4 years when he is still just pretty good and bailey is an ace what will people say then. I was dissapointed as most were but to give up on him is crazy. Im not saying he will be an ace but i think as do most of the experts that he has a very good chance to be one. Im sure they are just upset that he didnt dominate right away but very few do. Give the kid some time.

JLB5
07-25-2007, 11:22 AM
Bottom line: The Reds need to be trading for more prospects like Bailey, not trading them. I think they've proven over the past 5 years that they can't score enough runs to win without a frontline pitching staff. Dunn for Zimmerman, great (won't happen but I'd drive down and pick him up myself). Votto for Zimmerman, I wouldn't be upset. But Bailey for Zimmerman, I'd be asking for Wayne's head on a platter.

Caveman Techie
07-25-2007, 11:25 AM
I wasn't disappointed with Bailey at all. He did exactly what I expected him to do. He came up here, relied on what got him by at the lower levels and he got rocked. Now it's just a question of if he's willing to listen to his coaches now, to learn what it takes to get the Major Leaguers out.

He has some of the most promising talent I've seen in a Cincinnati uniform in a long time. I'm not going to give up on him.

rotnoid
07-25-2007, 11:40 AM
I think the point is that Bailey has had trouble at the major league level. His velocity hasn't touched what it was reproted to be in the minors and he still doesn't have a reliable second out pitch. While he could develop into an ace, he could also turn out to be a #2/3/4 guy just as readily. The assumption is that Zimmerman is going to be a lights out 3B for the next 10-12 years. Trading Bailey for that doesn't seem so far fetched in those terms. While I'm not advocating the deal, I can certainly see some merit to it (especially given Homer's recent trouble with groin injuries).

The Snow Chief
07-25-2007, 12:05 PM
I think most scouts believe Bailey will be a #1 starter caliber pitcher. When compared to an average mlb starter, throw in a #1 caliber starter and it can make a difference of ten wins to the team. (not only in the extra wins the pitcher gets but the extra no decisions that end up as wins for the team - e.g. Harang's start on Monday).

No third baseman that is not named A-Rod will make a difference of ten wins to a team when compared to the average mlb third-baseman. Quality starting pitching is just a much more valuable commodity than quality infield players. I do not see how people do not get that.

JLB5
07-25-2007, 12:05 PM
I think it comes down to would you trade the best 5 years of Chris Carpenter (Bailey's upside) for the best 5 years of Scott Rolen (Zimmerman's upside). [Edit: I say 5 years, because so few players sustain more than 5 years at the elite level] In a market where Jason Jennings is likely to get $11 million per year, I'm sticking with Bailey. I would consider trading a Cueto or Fisher as they are not as far developmentally nor are reputed to have Bailey's upside. I think the fear is that Bailey is "damaged goods" and will never live up to the hype. The Reds are never going to be major buyers on the free agent pitching market. The only way to get it is to grow it or get lucky in trades (Harang, Arroyo). Bailey is 21, I don't know what his future holds, but I'd rather we find out with him in a Reds uniform.

jimbo
07-25-2007, 12:24 PM
I'm not going to make fun of the idea like someone in ORG accused everyone here of doing, but I do not agree with it. I feel that in order for this organization to have any kind of consistant success, it has to be able to develop pitching from within and trading your top pitching prospect, and one of the top in all of the minors, for a positioin player goes away from that philosophy.

This organization will never be able to compete on the open market for premiere pitching so developing from within is an absolute must. If we start trading away our best pitching prospects for position players (when we finally have some worth mentioning), then I fear we will continue to see conistant losing.

And I do see the point of the ORG posters who are all for it, I just simply disagree.

The Snow Chief
07-25-2007, 12:30 PM
I'm not going to make fun of the idea like someone in ORG accused everyone here of doing, but I do not agree with it. I feel that in order for this organization to have any kind of consistant success, it has to be able to develop pitching from within and trading your top pitching prospect, and one of the top in all of the minors, for a positioin player goes away from that philosophy.

This organization will never be able to compete on the open market for premiere pitching so developing from within is an absolute must. If we start trading away our best pitching prospects for position players (when we finally have some worth mentioning), then I fear we will continue to see conistant losing.

And I do see the point of the ORG posters who are all for it, I just simply disagree.


I think Zimmerman is good. Hell, I'd give Leatherpants Dunn and EE for him. However, you can't trade away someone projected as a #1 starter for him.

rotnoid
07-25-2007, 12:34 PM
I think Zimmerman is good. Hell, I'd give Leatherpants Dunn and EE for him. However, you can't trade away someone projected as a #1 starter for him.


So, if we turn that around, by that account, you're giving Bailey more value than Dunn AND EE. I'm no Dunn fan, but I'd take him and EE for Bailey every day of the week and twice on Sunday.

joshnky
07-25-2007, 12:39 PM
I think it comes down to would you trade the best 5 years of Chris Carpenter (Bailey's upside) for the best 5 years of Scott Rolen (Zimmerman's upside).

While its true that these are the upsides, Zimmerman is much closer to Rolen presently than Bailey is to Carpenter. Because he is further along there is much less risk involved in Zimmerman than there is in Bailey. If you can capitalize on Bailey's upside and let someone else deal with the risk it might be a reasonable deal. Also, keep in mind that Zimmerman's numbers will likely improve when he goes from the cavernous RFK to GABP.

What is comes down to is when the Reds plan to contend. If its in the next two years you go for a guy like Zimmerman because it is unlikely that Bailey will be an elite pitcher in that time frame. If you're looking at a firesale and 2-3 years of rebuilding you keep Bailey because he'll be cheap longer and should be hitting his stride in that time frame.

The Snow Chief
07-25-2007, 12:41 PM
So, if we turn that around, by that account, you're giving Bailey more value than Dunn AND EE. I'm no Dunn fan, but I'd take him and EE for Bailey every day of the week and twice on Sunday.

Yes. Because Dunn will be a free agent and the Reds will not sign him. He has to be valued differently than a player you can control at below market for 6 years. Trust me, Krivsky would be all over that deal compared to the return he is being offered for Dunn.

By the example you gave, any small market GM worth his salt would trade Dunn (with his current contract situation) and EE for Bailey.

The Snow Chief
07-25-2007, 12:46 PM
While its true that these are the upsides, Zimmerman is much closer to Rolen presently than Bailey is to Carpenter. Because he is further along there is much less risk involved in Zimmerman than there is in Bailey. If you can capitalize on Bailey's upside and let someone else deal with the risk it might be a reasonable deal. Also, keep in mind that Zimmerman's numbers will likely improve when he goes from the cavernous RFK to GABP.

What is comes down to is when the Reds plan to contend. If its in the next two years you go for a guy like Zimmerman because it is unlikely that Bailey will be an elite pitcher in that time frame. If you're looking at a firesale and 2-3 years of rebuilding you keep Bailey because he'll be cheap longer and should be hitting his stride in that time frame.

Zimmerman's OPS+ (controlled for park) is right at league average. Although I think he will be good, he is not without risk.

JLB5
07-25-2007, 12:51 PM
I think the point is that Bailey has had trouble at the major league level. His velocity hasn't touched what it was reproted to be in the minors and he still doesn't have a reliable second out pitch. While he could develop into an ace, he could also turn out to be a #2/3/4 guy just as readily. The assumption is that Zimmerman is going to be a lights out 3B for the next 10-12 years. Trading Bailey for that doesn't seem so far fetched in those terms. While I'm not advocating the deal, I can certainly see some merit to it (especially given Homer's recent trouble with groin injuries).

I think it's hard to judge a 21 year old on a hand full of starts. I admit I wasn't overly impressed. I went to his second game and it certainly was far from the first time I saw Jose Rijo live and my eyes nearly popped out of my skull. I found myself scratching my head as to why Narron used 3 different catchers in his first 3 starts. In his 6 starts, Ross caught 3, Valentine 2, and Moeller 1. You would think they would want some consistency for the kid. His curve showed plus potential, altough it is very inconsistent. Seems that his fastball was most effective up in the zone and they seemed to be trying to get him to keep the ball down at times, which might not have been the best strategy. His changeup needs the most work, if that develops everything else will fall into place. My guess is that his velocity was down because he was trying to have better command (seems to be a philosophy of this pitching staff). He may have also had some lingering groin problems.

Homer has great mechanics and with his long stride he doesn't need to throw 99. Guys were having trouble catching up with his fastball at 93/94. His biggest issue is his command. His "waste" pitches have no purpose. When he misses the zone, he misses by enough that is doesn't effect the hitter's approach. However, that will improve with experience. He had 6 starts and I thought 4 of them went well - 3 excellent (Majewski did him no favors in his start against the Angels). Homer has all the intangibles of becoming an ace. He also bears some heavy expectations.

Of course, I'm just an ignorant Sun Deck poster, so I couldn't possibly have any intelligent thoughts on this subject. In all honesty, it could be another 3-5 years before Homer hits his full stride. Heck, look at fellow Texas flamethrowers Nolan Ryan and Roger Clemans. They didn't exactly set the world on fire there first couple of years. Ryan Zimmerman may be an exceptional talent, but I'll take exceptional talent in the pitching department over exceptional talent in the hitting department any day.

JLB5
07-25-2007, 12:55 PM
What is comes down to is when the Reds plan to contend. If its in the next two years you go for a guy like Zimmerman because it is unlikely that Bailey will be an elite pitcher in that time frame. If you're looking at a firesale and 2-3 years of rebuilding you keep Bailey because he'll be cheap longer and should be hitting his stride in that time frame.


That's a valid point, but I don't think the Reds can compete in the next 2-3 years without a vast improvement in starting pitching. At the moment, Bailey is the best hope to improve that starting pitching. I don't think Zimmerman could make up the difference of running Phil Dumtrait or Kirk Saarloos out there every 5th day.

joshnky
07-25-2007, 12:55 PM
Zimmerman's OPS+ (controlled for park) is right at league average. Although I think he will be good, he is not without risk.

But he does have less risk. Zimmerman, at a minimum, will be a league average 3rd baseman so at worst you at least get a decent 3rd baseman. Bailey is not even a #5 starter right now so his potential downside is far worse than Zimmerman's.

Bailey has the potential to be an elite pitcher but few elite pitching prospects become elite pitchers.

jimbo
07-25-2007, 12:58 PM
I think it's hard to judge a 21 year old on a hand full of starts. I admit I wasn't overly impressed. I went to his second game and it certainly was far from the first time I saw Jose Rijo live and my eyes nearly popped out of my skull. I found myself scratching my head as to why Narron used 3 different catchers in his first 3 starts. In his 6 starts, Ross caught 3, Valentine 2, and Moeller 1. You would think they would want some consistency for the kid. His curve showed plus potential, altough it is very inconsistent. Seems that his fastball was most effective up in the zone and they seemed to be trying to get him to keep the ball down at times, which might not have been the best strategy. His changeup needs the most work, if that develops everything else will fall into place. My guess is that his velocity was down because he was trying to have better command (seems to be a philosophy of this pitching staff). He may have also had some lingering groin problems.

Homer has great mechanics and with his long stride he doesn't need to throw 99. Guys were having trouble catching up with his fastball at 93/94. His biggest issue is his command. His "waste" pitches have no purpose. When he misses the zone, he misses by enough that is doesn't effect the hitter's approach. However, that will improve with experience. He had 6 starts and I thought 4 of them went well - 3 excellent (Majewski did him no favors in his start against the Angels). Homer has all the intangibles of becoming an ace. He also bears some heavy expectations.

Of course, I'm just an ignorant Sun Deck poster, so I couldn't possibly have any intelligent thoughts on this subject. In all honesty, it could be another 3-5 years before Homer hits his full stride. Heck, look at fellow Texas flamethrowers Nolan Ryan and Roger Clemans. They didn't exactly set the world on fire there first couple of years. Ryan Zimmerman may be an exceptional talent, but I'll take exceptional talent in the pitching department over exceptional talent in the hitting department any day.


Great post. I think your last sentence says it all.

George Anderson
07-25-2007, 01:00 PM
Bailey has the potential to be an elite pitcher but few elite pitching prospects become elite pitchers.


But it is impossible to become an elite team if you dont have the elite pitching.

The Snow Chief
07-25-2007, 01:00 PM
Great post. I think your last sentence says it all.

I agree

The Snow Chief
07-25-2007, 01:03 PM
But he does have less risk. Zimmerman, at a minimum, will be a league average 3rd baseman so at worst you at least get a decent 3rd baseman. Bailey is not even a #5 starter right now so his potential downside is far worse than Zimmerman's.

Bailey has the potential to be an elite pitcher but few elite pitching prospects become elite pitchers.

Bailey is not a #5 starter right now because he had no business being in the bigs. He should have stayed in AAA and worked on his offspeed pitches and locating his fastball. When he does that in a year or two, I think there is little doubt he will be a top of the rotation caliber pitcher. He has all the tools. Very few pitchers dominated the bigs at 21.

BLEEDS
07-25-2007, 01:08 PM
First of all, this trade would NEVER EVER EVER be done. Reds FO has put Homer as the Face of the Franchise. They wouldn't trade him for a 3B-men, LET ALONE to Jim Bowden and the Nats.

BUT, if you want to throw ALL REALITY AND LOGIC out the window, and look at this in a vacuum of Fantasy Baseball trades, then they might have an argument.

Other than having EE on your team who is every bit the prospect at the plate that Z is - outside of having a DOWN slugging year, he has him bested this year and had better numbers across the board outside of Plate Appearances last year - it makes sense to look for another 3rd basemen. Apparently, we could trade EE to the Yankees for Phil Hughes, since he's injured.

SO, after we trade EE for Hughes, it would make sense to trade Bailey for Zim.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

The Snow Chief
07-25-2007, 01:21 PM
BUT, if you want to throw ALL REALITY AND LOGIC out the window, and look at this in a vacuum of Fantasy Baseball trades, then they might have an argument.

Unfortunately, that seems to be what happens today. Fantasy baseball is much different from being the GM of a small market team. Too many fail to see the difference.

Caveman Techie
07-25-2007, 03:52 PM
Bailey is not a #5 starter right now because he had no business being in the bigs. He should have stayed in AAA and worked on his offspeed pitches and locating his fastball.

I think this is exactly why they brought him up. Everytime Bailey got in trouble in the minor's he'd fall back on his fastball, and it was good enough to get him out of trouble more often than not. His off-speed stuff wasn't developing and because he was actually having sucess with his fastball only he didn't see a need to do anything differently. The Reds brought him up to the bigs to a) sell tickets, and b) show him that his fastball isn't going to dominate up here like it did down in the minors.

AmarilloRed
07-25-2007, 04:56 PM
I went back and read the thread on ORG. A ORG poster named BUCKSFAN 2 presented the trade. He obviously believes Zimmerman is the greatest third baseman ever born. He not only suggested we trade Harang straight up for Zimmerman, but that we also consider trading Bailey and/or Bruce for Zimmerman. To be fair, not all of the ORG supported his suggestion. It is clear, however, that Bailey has lost a lot of support in the ORG. They also believe Zimmerman would OPS much higher in GABP. I found interesting that bucksfan 2 and I both joined Redzone in December 2006 and he has only 742 posts. I know nothing of his posting history, but I would be interested to know why someone like that is on the ORG and I am not. It was obviously a very stupid trade idea, whether you are discussing Harang or Bruce /Bailey for Zimmerman. I am sure Zimmerman is a very good third baseman in Washington, but I would not trade Edwin for him at this stage. I really am rather disappointed in the ORG, and I hope they think before they post in the future; otherwise no one will want to apply to join ORG in the future. It is not that we believe Bailey is a can't miss prospect like Austin Kearns suggested; we simply don't think very much of Zimmerman in The Sun Deck.

JLB5
07-25-2007, 05:29 PM
These comments are not directed at anyone in particular. I think we all realize that there are a variety of opinions in both the ORG and the Sun Deck. I'm sure many in both areas would appreciate others not acting as "spokesperson" for either group or poking jabs at the entire group (i.e. "The Sun Deck doesn't get it" or sour grapes: I don't care if I ever post in the ORG) because of the opinions of a few individuals. Good dialogue involves point and counterpoint, no need for pointless generalizations. How about a good old Rodney King, "Can't we all just get along."

...Now back to your regularly scheduled thread...

I'd trade Edwin for Zimmerman and probably even throw in a lower level pitching prospect. In the end, whoever (Flyer85 I think) said that both Zimmerman and Bailey are viewed as untouchables by their respective organizations is most correct.

AmarilloRed
07-25-2007, 08:21 PM
I want to make a public apology to everyone. I usually make very good posts, but I went overboard and probably offended everyone in my last post. I posted before I knew a lot about Zimmerman, and I suppose a case could be made that he could help the Reds ballclub. In the future, I will do a lot more research before I make such a emotional post. I usually do try to make good points, but I just made a downright terrible post, and I hope everyone in Redzone will be able to forgive my post in time. I am going to research Zimmerman more closely,and I will make a more reasoned post next time.

All right, I went backed and checked on Zimmerman more closely. He is clearly a superior third baseman to Edwin at this stage in their careers. Edwin hits in a smaller ballpark, but has not shown the power or hit for the average Zimmerman has in a much larger park. Zimmerman's average is down a little from last year, but he is still a good offensive third baseman. He hits much better against leftys than rightys (.372 vs .229), but he is clearly hitting well in July with a .324 BA. I could see where a trade for him for Encarcion would be a steal for the Reds; however I am still not sure if I would trade Bailey or Bruce for him. I wouldn't trade Bruce because we will need an outfielder in the future. Homer Bailey has been a great disappointment so far; but we have had a terrible history of developing starting pitching. I can see us working out a deal of Encarcion and Dunn for Zimmerman; I just am not sure if the Nationals would do it. Clearly, there is a lot of disappointment in Edwin, and this trade proposal is just an example of that. Zimmerman will be a top third baseman for a lot of years, and Edwin has disappointed so far. I now can understand why some posters are willing to cosider trading a disappointing Bailey for a potential All-Star third baseman in Zimmerman.

Fil3232
07-25-2007, 11:06 PM
All I know is that Bailey looked really far away from being a consistently good major league pitcher. It might be 5 years before he is doing what Harang is doing right now, if ever. Getting a young, improving 3B like Zimmerman for a Bailey type wouldn't be the worst trade in the world by a long shot. If you want to look at a bad return for a potential "ace," see Zambrano, Victor.

AmarilloRed
07-25-2007, 11:19 PM
He did lack consistancy when he first came up, but he was brought up way too soon. I think he could be a ace of the Reds staff after1-2 years of developing his off-speed pitches. It is always a risk to trade a developing ace pitcher for a position player. He might never become that ace pitcher, however and you need to reflect on where you believe both players will be in their career in 5 years time. Zimmerman is a very good third baseman, but it is much easier to develop third baseman than it is ace-type pitchers.

Fil3232
07-25-2007, 11:29 PM
He did lack consistancy when he first came up, but he was brought up way too soon. I think he could be a ace of the Reds staff after1-2 years of developing his off-speed pitches. It is always a risk to trade a developing ace pitcher for a position player. He might never become that ace pitcher, however and you need to reflect on where you believe both players will be in their career in 5 years time. Zimmerman is a very good third baseman, but it is much easier to develop third baseman than it is ace-type pitchers.

I agree with everything you say. I too thought he was brought up way too early. Heck, I wouldn't mind seeing him in AA now toying with hitters while being able to really refine his offspeed pitches.

A thing to consider with these two types of players is how many years they will produce near their ceiling for their original team. Zimmerman is much closer to his ceiling than Bailey. While Bailey's is higher, it is certainly possible he will never reach his ceiling while pitching for the Reds. When factoring that in, a Zimmerman trade would be even more appealling. I would give Bailey at least another year or two, though, before I would seriously entertain notions of trading him.

SMcGavin
07-26-2007, 12:20 AM
I'd do Bailey for Zimmerman. The reason is what some people in this thread touched on - Bailey is a much riskier proposition. I think some people in here are just looking at Zimmerman's 750 OPS and immediately writing him off. Well, last season Ryan Zimmerman put up these numbers playing half his games in RFK:

.287/.345/.471

That's a .822 OPS in the bigs at age 21. He is having a down year in 2007, but his down year is a league-average MLB third baseman. And he's only 22. If I'm Krivsky I swallow hard and make the trade. There's a chance that Bailey ends up being the next Clemens, but there's also a chance he never locates those off speed pitches and just ends up as another failed prospect. Zimmerman also has the potential to be a total stud, but the worst he could possibly be (barring injury) is a league average 3B. I'd do the trade and have the stud RH bat the Reds need for the next 10 years.

AmarilloRed
07-26-2007, 12:25 AM
I agree with everything you say. I too thought he was brought up way too early. Heck, I wouldn't mind seeing him in AA now toying with hitters while being able to really refine his offspeed pitches.

A thing to consider with these two types of players is how many years they will produce near their ceiling for their original team. Zimmerman is much closer to his ceiling than Bailey. While Bailey's is higher, it is certainly possible he will never reach his ceiling while pitching for the Reds. When factoring that in, a Zimmerman trade would be even more appealling. I would give Bailey at least another year or two, though, before I would seriously entertain notions of trading him.

You say he has a very high ceiling, but you think he will never reach it with the Reds. It is not like the Reds have a bunch of ace-type starting pitchers. The only reason he might not do it here that I can see is if GABP might hurt his career.

AtomicDumpling
07-26-2007, 02:56 AM
I would rather have Bailey than Zimmerman right now. Zim is a great prospect and a safer bet, but Bailey is the best option for the Reds. I agree that a large majority of elite pitching prospects don't become elite pitchers. And most elite pitchers were not elite pitching prospects.

The hopes of this franchise rest squarely on the shoulders of Homer Bailey, Jay Bruce and Josh Hamilton. If those guys don't become stars then we are destined for a few more years of mediocrity. We have some other supporting players in the pipeline too, but those guys are the ones with star potential.

The only other way for the Reds to create a championship team is to go out and sign free agents like Carlos Zambrano. And I don't think Castellini will do that. Cast will increase the payroll, but not that much.

Good pitching is just too expensive to expect the Reds to go out and sign it on the open market. We are going to have to develop pitchers in the minors. We can trade for some help, but the bulk will have to come from inside. Bailey is the only real, stud, top-of-the-rotation prospect we have. We can't afford to trade him unless the return knocks our socks off. Cueto and others may become solid contributors, but they won't be stars unless something radical happens in their development soon.

The Snow Chief
07-26-2007, 08:12 AM
These comments are not directed at anyone in particular. I think we all realize that there are a variety of opinions in both the ORG and the Sun Deck. I'm sure many in both areas would appreciate others not acting as "spokesperson" for either group or poking jabs at the entire group (i.e. "The Sun Deck doesn't get it" or sour grapes: I don't care if I ever post in the ORG) because of the opinions of a few individuals. Good dialogue involves point and counterpoint, no need for pointless generalizations. How about a good old Rodney King, "Can't we all just get along."

...Now back to your regularly scheduled thread...

I'd trade Edwin for Zimmerman and probably even throw in a lower level pitching prospect. In the end, whoever (Flyer85 I think) said that both Zimmerman and Bailey are viewed as untouchables by their respective organizations is most correct.

You make good points. The comment about not caring if I post in the ORG was probably a generalization with too small a sample size. It wasn't sour grapes, because I don't think I've even been around long enough to be considered for the ORG, but it was just a generalization after reading post after post saying "I'd do that deal" and "me too."

I do get frustrated by reading some of their comments about the Sun Deck. I guarantee many on the Sun Deck know more about baseball than many on ORG - anyone who reads both boards can see that. That said, there are also many knowledgeable and cordial fans on ORG and my comment was a generalization that went to them as well and I regret that.

I stand by the part about my concerns that, in light of the BRM, this town feels the Reds can win with a bunch of offense and below average pitching. I think that mentality is a real problem in this town.

BLEEDS
07-26-2007, 12:51 PM
I traded Bailey for Zimmerman and Cordero in my Madden Baseball 2008 last night... The Nats also sent me $10M in cash, their first round Draft Picks for 2009 and 2010, a bag of slightly used jock straps, and a pair of leather pants.

Based on that, I think Bailey should spend the rest of the year in the BIGS, working on his other pitches. This season is lost, and he should DEVELOP in the BIGS, since he won't be able to throw 94 MPH fastballs eyeballs high to get guys out at this level when his other pitches aren't working.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

boognish
07-26-2007, 01:01 PM
Based on that, I think Bailey should spend the rest of the year in the BIGS, working on his other pitches. This season is lost, and he should DEVELOP in the BIGS, since he won't be able to throw 94 MPH fastballs eyeballs high to get guys out at this level when his other pitches aren't working.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

I would rather keep Bailey on his predetermined IP plan and limit the number of offerings he must make from the stretch; pitching him in AAA the rest of the season until September and working him into a role (bullpen or starting) according to his prior 2007 workload.

While we are creating 3-page fantasy-land trades, I would consider trading Bailey for the right return. I think Zimmerman would OPS in the 900 range with 30-35 dingers annually in GABP, bring right-handed sock to a lineup desperately in need of it (and no RH hitters in the pipeline's high levels), and provide Gold Glove-caliber D at third for the next decade...Bailey has a high ceiling but is riskier, so I would consider this a good deal if WK made it.

AmarilloRed
07-26-2007, 01:15 PM
Bailey is not all that much of a risk; he was just brought up before he properly refined his off-speed pitches. His last 2 starts in AAA showed he still has some work to do in AAA this year. I would like to see him spend the rest of this year and next year working on developing his off-speed pitches unless he truly shows he can consistantly throw all his pitches for strikes next year. In that case, I would bring him back to the Reds in 2008. It is interesting how quickly everyone has jumped ship on Edwin. I had a lot of hope he could turn things around in the second half, but he seems unwilling or unable to make adjustments.

boognish
07-26-2007, 01:39 PM
It is interesting how quickly everyone has jumped ship on Edwin. I had a lot of hope he could turn things around in the second half, but he seems unwilling or unable to make adjustments.

A goal for the rest of this lost season needs to be seeing what is there in Encarnacion. Pulling him in and out of the lineup is a move that only hurts the Reds and the club is now on its second manager hell bent on doing so. EE can be a cheap above average bat for the next half-dozen years and I think he has the potential to be a high-obp hitter with very good defense. Hopefully he does so with the Reds, and not after being traded for peanuts or allowed to walk.

redsfanmia
07-26-2007, 06:03 PM
A goal for the rest of this lost season needs to be seeing what is there in Encarnacion. Pulling him in and out of the lineup is a move that only hurts the Reds and the club is now on its second manager hell bent on doing so. EE can be a cheap above average bat for the next half-dozen years and I think he has the potential to be a high-obp hitter with very good defense. Hopefully he does so with the Reds, and not after being traded for peanuts or allowed to walk.

I agree that EE should be playing everyday to see if he is the future or not. The problem lies in the fact that Pete wants the managing job next year and is more interested in winning games than developing players. All this is going to do is set the Reds back another year in development and another year of not contending. I hope that Wayne has told Pete what his job is this year and that he barring a miracle has no chance of being manager next season.

Fil3232
07-26-2007, 06:59 PM
You say he has a very high ceiling, but you think he will never reach it with the Reds. It is not like the Reds have a bunch of ace-type starting pitchers. The only reason he might not do it here that I can see is if GABP might hurt his career.


He has a high ceiling, but who's to say he will get there while under control by the Reds (barring a LTC)? He could put it all together at age 29, for another team, and all the Reds would get out of it would be 4 or 5 years of training on the job from Bailey. With Zimmerman, you have a 22 yr. old who is not only more likely to reach his ceiling, but he is considerably closer to it. The more I think about it, the harder it would be to turn down a Bailey for Zimmerman straight up. I think I would pull the trigger and not look back.

Muggerd
07-26-2007, 07:37 PM
Anyone thats wanting to trade a prospect like bailey is insane. we dont have an abundance of arms in our system right now why on earth would we trade our "best" one. This teams problem has been pitching for years you dont get better pitching by trading your top minor league guys for position players.

I feel its always easier to find bats than it is to find arms.

DannyB
07-26-2007, 08:15 PM
That's a valid point, but I don't think the Reds can compete in the next 2-3 years without a vast improvement in starting pitching. At the moment, Bailey is the best hope to improve that starting pitching. I don't think Zimmerman could make up the difference of running Phil Dumtrait or Kirk Saarloos out there every 5th day.

I think with an average bullpen and some consistancy on the lineups we would have been competitive this year.

Chi-Town Red
07-26-2007, 09:03 PM
why would you trade the number one pitching prospect in your organization, when you need pitching so badly?...i cant think of one good reason

AtomicDumpling
07-26-2007, 09:07 PM
why would you trade the number one pitching prospect in your organization, when you need pitching so badly?...i cant think of one good reason

Maybe to get a better prospect?

I agree we should keep Homer unless somebody knocks our socks off.

For example, I would trade Homer for Tim Lincecum or Yovanni Gallardo. Or maybe package Homer with Dunn for Johan Santana. Obviously these examples will never happen, but there theoretically are trades that I would accept for Homer Bailey.

boognish
07-26-2007, 09:09 PM
why would you trade the number one pitching prospect in your organization, when you need pitching so badly?...i cant think of one good reason

It's all about the return. I consider Aaron Harang untouchable, but I would trade him for Aaron Harang and another player.

The entire 40-man roster is in need of a severe overhaul. Why not at least entertain outside the box notions? If WK isn't explring every option, especially at such a critical juncture regarding his job security, all he is doing is wasting space.

Vada Pinson Fan
07-26-2007, 09:38 PM
The knowledgeable Reds fans are more than happy to allow for the "growing pains" Homer Bailey will have. Koufax did. Same with Glavine and Maddux just to name three. You just don't trade a Homer Bailey.! You allow him his bumps in the road and to become Major League savvy.

After his stint on the minor league D/L, give Bailey 3 re-hab starts in Louisville then put him on the Reds starting rotation. Let him learn NOW while this edition of the Reds aren't contending; in the majors.

Hypothetically: If the Reds could acquire a "younger" ARod for Homer Bailey (at Bailey's present age) and not knowing of ARod's future accomplishments- I couldn't trade Homer Bailey for him. You trade a package of position players (including one all-star type player) and hope you can get that young ARod but you don't trade your best home-grown pitcher since Mario Soto to get a 3rd baseman, SS or whomever. You believe as GM in the talent and great future that Homer Bailey possesses and keep him!

boognish
07-26-2007, 09:49 PM
Hypothetically: If the Reds could acquire a "younger" ARod for Homer Bailey (at Bailey's present age) and not knowing of ARod's future accomplishments- I couldn't trade Homer Bailey for him. You trade a package of position players (including one all-star type player) and hope you can get that young ARod but you don't trade your best home-grown pitcher since Mario Soto to get a 3rd baseman, SS or whomever. You believe as GM in the talent and great future that Homer Bailey possesses and keep him!

I understand what you are saying (including the part of your post I did not quote :D, but how do you know he is the best home-grown pitcher since Soto? There is risk associated with every young arm, and if the Reds can get a fantastic return for him they should do it. His prospect status is really only relevant in terms of his value; he needs to produce something tangible before being considered untradeable.

Fil3232
07-26-2007, 10:54 PM
I understand what you are saying (including the part of your post I did not quote :D, but how do you know he is the best home-grown pitcher since Soto? There is risk associated with every young arm, and if the Reds can get a fantastic return for him they should do it. His prospect status is really only relevant in terms of his value; he needs to produce something tangible before being considered untradeable.


Completely agree. He might be considered the best Reds prospect in decades, but that ultimately doesn't mean squat until he produces on the field, in the major leagues. And while he might take his lumps like Glavine, Maddux, etc., he also might take his lumps and never amount to anything more than an Edwin Jackson. Pitchers are the most fickle entities in the game.

The original question was Ryan Zimmerman for Homer Bailey. All things considered, I make the trade.

jnwohio
07-26-2007, 11:20 PM
I don't think anyone has even mentioned what might be the most important issue in evaluating Bailey's short stint with the Reds. It is pretty apparent now that his groin was not fully healthy when he was pitching for the Reds; and, what we saw of him was not the full package.

As Tom Seaver always reminds, pitching starts with the butt and legs. Bailey did not have his fully under him in Cincy. If they hold him back until he is truly sound, we will probably see the "missing" velocity and true command so many were disappointed not to see in his debut.

The Snow Chief
07-27-2007, 10:26 AM
If you get rocked in your first half-dozen mlb starts, you're destined to be an average pitcher at best.

signed,

Greg Maddux & Johan Santana

JLB5
07-27-2007, 10:55 AM
What cracks me up is that if Homer Bailey was in any other organization, I'm sure that the vast majority of posters on this site would advocate trading for him. Matt Garza is a favored trade target around here and he didn't fare much better than Homer in his first half dozen starts. Homer has now revealed that he was trying to pitch through the groin injury. I'd like to see him back in a Reds uni when he is healthy in September.

boognish
07-27-2007, 10:55 AM
If you get rocked in your first half-dozen mlb starts, you're destined to be an average pitcher at best.

signed,

Greg Maddux & Johan Santana

Players labelled as great prospects who get shelled in their first half-dozen MLB starts are guaranteed to win a handful of Cy Young awards.

Signed,

Gavin Floyd, Bill Pulsipher, Dan Serafini, Carlton Loewer, Dan Reichert, and Scott Ruffcorn.

You have to have context in your argument for it to hold. There are no guarantees with Bailey.

The Snow Chief
07-27-2007, 11:08 AM
Players labelled as great prospects who get shelled in their first half-dozen MLB starts are guaranteed to win a handful of Cy Young awards.

Signed,

Gavin Floyd, Bill Pulsipher, Dan Serafini, Carlton Loewer, Dan Reichert, and Scott Ruffcorn.

You have to have context in your argument for it to hold. There are no guarantees with Bailey.

I was not making the argument that struggling in the first six starts means that a hot pitching prospect will be successful. I am making the argument that it should be irrelevant to the analysis of whether or not the pitcher will be successful. Your examples further that point. No one on here advocated trading him for anyone prior to those first six starts. I am saying that those six starts should not have changed the analysis.

boognish
07-27-2007, 02:09 PM
I was not making the argument that struggling in the first six starts means that a hot pitching prospect will be successful. I am making the argument that it should be irrelevant to the analysis of whether or not the pitcher will be successful. Your examples further that point. No one on here advocated trading him for anyone prior to those first six starts. I am saying that those six starts should not have changed the analysis.

I agree with you; it is foolish to put too much weight upon such a small sample, especially when it is a player's initial 6 appearances. I do, however, disagree with the central premise of the thread, that only a Reds fan would "give up" on Bailey. His stock is slightly down, but so what? It has never been a sure thing he will be a front of the rotation starter; but at the same time the Reds need to be stockpiling young arms with upside, a subset Bailey clearly falls into.

Personally, I advocate trading anyone if it improves the organization, falling back on the example that I would trade Aaron Harang for Aaron Harang and another player who would upgrade the 25-man. My point is that nobody is "untouchable," no matter their pedigree.

The Snow Chief
07-27-2007, 02:23 PM
I agree with you; it is foolish to put too much weight upon such a small sample, especially when it is a player's initial 6 appearances. I do, however, disagree with the central premise of the thread, that only a Reds fan would "give up" on Bailey. His stock is slightly down, but so what? It has never been a sure thing he will be a front of the rotation starter; but at the same time the Reds need to be stockpiling young arms with upside, a subset Bailey clearly falls into.

Personally, I advocate trading anyone if it improves the organization, falling back on the example that I would trade Aaron Harang for Aaron Harang and another player who would upgrade the 25-man. My point is that nobody is "untouchable," no matter their pedigree.

I agree that no one is untouchable. If someone offered for Bailey another top 3-4 pitching prospect in baseball plus a current or projected starting position player, I would certainly make the deal. I just think top starting pitching prospects are untouchable when the return is a position player - especially when the starting pitching prospect is on a non-contending team and for a position player who has not proven that he will dominate either.

Fil3232
07-27-2007, 04:15 PM
The thing about Bailey's debut was just how raw he showed himself to be. That was a little troubling to me. He had absolutely no confidence in anything but his fastball, and that was sitting 91-94 most of the time outside of the strike zone. Now if the groin was truly a problem then Bailey's performance should be viewed in context, but from the looks of it, he is a long ways off from being a consistently good MLB pitcher.

For these reasons the Reds shouldn't blind themselves to the possibility of trading him.

improbus
07-27-2007, 09:37 PM
The best case scenario for Homer: Fausto Carmona. That is, get some confidence in your breaking ball and slider, which opens up the fastball again.

The worst case: Jack Armstrong maybe? Chris Reitsma?

Chi-Town Red
07-27-2007, 10:36 PM
he really needs to work on a change up as well

Muggerd
07-28-2007, 12:01 AM
He racks up the pitch count. he supposed to be a high K pitcher and throwing too many balls just makes it even worse.