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View Full Version : The case for keeping Weathers



Kc61
07-26-2007, 11:10 AM
I think the Reds should trade almost any player for top end young pitching, but assuming no such offer, should they trade Weathers?

He is 37, has had a terrific year, currently has saved 20 of 24 with a 3.10 ERA. His last two seasons were not quite as good, but were very solid with WHIPs of 1.29 in both 2005 and 2006. He has taken well to late innings work and undeniably is the Reds best reliever.

Many would say, cash him in for more youthful players while he has value, and it's hard to disagree with that.

On the other hand, take Todd Jones, who is 39 years old. In 2005 and 2006 he saved, respectively, 40 and 37 games and this year, while most of his numbers are down this year, he does have 27 saves so far. Some relievers can pitch well into their forties.

A lot depends on your view of the Reds time horizon. Can they be competitive in 2008? In 2009? Beyond that, hard to project Weathers as a helper, but in 2008 and 09 can still see him being productive.

But even if there is no expectation of winning soon, it's hard to imagine this team without Weathers or a suitable replacement. Is it worth keeping Weathers just to be a reasonable ballclub while rebuilding?

Personally, I enjoy watching him pitch. Weathers is just unafraid of good hitters, comes right after them, and is great in pressure spots with men on base. After a little rest, he seems better than ever this last week.

Wonder what folks think.

Danny Serafini
07-26-2007, 11:19 AM
If a good enough offer comes along I'd move him, but I'm happy having him on the team. He's been their best reliever, and while I understand those who want to bring up a bunch of kids, and agree with that to a good degree, you do need some people who have been there before and know what to expect. He's a good addition to this staff, and barring an unexpectedly good trade offer I'd keep him.

bucksfan2
07-26-2007, 11:21 AM
37, coming off a good year, pitching well, would be a very good 7th or 8th inning guy for a contending team, I trade him if I get talent in return. The reds are going nowhere with Weathers so why not get something in return from him.

puca
07-26-2007, 11:28 AM
On the surface he has quite a bit of value for the Reds next year, so there is no motivation to give him away. However, considering his age, usage and the volatility of stuff-challenged relievers, I would absolutely be open to trading him. If someone stepped up to the table with even a 'Linebrick' type offer, I would snap it up.

dfs
07-26-2007, 11:45 AM
On the surface he has quite a bit of value for the Reds next year, so there is no motivation to give him away.

That's the way I feel about a good bit of the reds roster. I honestly don't think there is anybody on this roster that I wouldn't trade for the right package.

OTOH there are some guys (Lohse/Hatteberg/Conine) that they would be foolish to not give away for anything they can get. As much as I like Hatteberg, he's not going to be on the next good reds team.

Johnny Footstool
07-26-2007, 11:46 AM
This organization needs high-ceiling arms in the minors more than a 37 year old closer, no matter how reliable.

registerthis
07-26-2007, 11:48 AM
This organization needs high-ceiling arms in the minors more than a 37 year old closer, no matter how reliable.

Do you think Weathers could bring that, though?

I don't.

I don't think the Reds should be moving players simply to move them. I'm all for trading Weathers if the deal is right, but not for some chump roster filler or AAA washout. You're better off keeping Weathers if that is the return.

Johnny Footstool
07-26-2007, 12:45 PM
Do you think Weathers could bring that, though?

I don't.

I don't think the Reds should be moving players simply to move them. I'm all for trading Weathers if the deal is right, but not for some chump roster filler or AAA washout. You're better off keeping Weathers if that is the return.

Linebrink netted the Padres 3 pitching prospects.

I think Weathers could bring in something like a AA pitcher with a live arm and some warts. That's the kind of return I'd be seeking.

paulrichjr
07-26-2007, 12:56 PM
I think Weathers is worth more in trade bait then anyone the Reds have including Dunn. Teams would love him for the final 2 months and then have him next year for real cheap considering the reliever market. His value to us is LESS than it is to almost any team in contention and many of us want to keep him... Just think what the Yanks might give for him.

HotCorner
07-26-2007, 12:59 PM
I believe the Reds value Weathers more because of his leadership in the clubhouse (and more importantly the bullpen) and his cheap contract. It's like having an extra pitching coach on the team. The only veteran relievers on this roster are Stormy, Stanton and Guadardo. It's rapidly becoming a very young bp and needs a good veteran presence.

nate
07-26-2007, 01:22 PM
I think Weathers is worth more in trade bait then anyone the Reds have including Dunn. Teams would love him for the final 2 months and then have him next year for real cheap considering the reliever market. His value to us is LESS than it is to almost any team in contention and many of us want to keep him... Just think what the Yanks might give for him.

I agree. I think the most valuable chips the Reds have are:

Weathers
Lohse
Hatteberg
Conine

5 more days and we'll see how this plays out.

Dan
07-26-2007, 01:27 PM
On the other hand, take Todd Jones, who is 39 years old. In 2005 and 2006 he saved, respectively, 40 and 37 games and this year, while most of his numbers are down this year, he does have 27 saves so far. Some relievers can pitch well into their forties.

Never base your expectations for one player upon the performance of another. just because Todd Jones may have done that, that doesn't mean Weathers will. It's an illogical argument.

I'm of the belief that you sell high. Weathers is at his high point right now and ought to bring a solid return (Balentien?). Don't miss out on the opportunity to get value where you can.

Caseyfan21
07-26-2007, 02:00 PM
If we can trade Weathers for something solid then I'm all for it. If we can get at least 1 solid prospect or two middle prospects then let's make a deal. However, if the return is 2 questionable A prospects who probably won't ever do much then let's keep him. There's no need to give David Weathers away when he is filling our greatest need (relief pitching).

Johnny Footstool
07-26-2007, 02:21 PM
If we can trade Weathers for something solid then I'm all for it. If we can get at least 1 solid prospect or two middle prospects then let's make a deal. However, if the return is 2 questionable A prospects who probably won't ever do much then let's keep him. There's no need to give David Weathers away when he is filling our greatest need (relief pitching).

He's filling the team's greatest current need, true, but to what end? What good is his performance doing the organization as a whole? Wouldn't the organization be better off by stockpiling high-ceiling arms in the minors?

Unassisted
07-26-2007, 02:44 PM
I think the biggest drawback to unloading Weathers is that the dreadful 8th inning pitching that we've seen too frequently would become dreadful 8th AND 9th inning pitching. The reports of successful outings by Bray and Majewski in Louisville are encouraging, but it seems premature for the Reds to count on either or both of those guys to pick up the slack if Weathers is shipped off. It's even less clear where the solution is among the rest of the bullpen crew.

It's easier for me, and probably the average fan, to envision that losing Weathers will cause the Reds to lose games than it is to envision that happening in the wake of the loss of anyone else on the roster. Stormy has been a great safety net lately.

registerthis
07-26-2007, 03:14 PM
Wouldn't the organization be better off by stockpiling high-ceiling arms in the minors?

No one's saying they shouldn't. But not every young pitcher is a valuable commodity. In fact, most aren't. I would hope that the Reds proceed cautiously with trading Weathers and don't give him away for easily replaceable minor league fodder.

Johnny Footstool
07-26-2007, 04:12 PM
No one's saying they shouldn't. But not every young pitcher is a valuable commodity. In fact, most aren't. I would hope that the Reds proceed cautiously with trading Weathers and don't give him away for easily replaceable minor league fodder.

The thing is, some of those cannon-fodder types can pan out to be serviceable major leaguers. If Krivsky's scouting department is as good as promised, they should be able to recognize talented but undervalued prospects.

Johnny Footstool
07-26-2007, 04:14 PM
...

It's easier for me, and probably the average fan, to envision that losing Weathers will cause the Reds to lose games than it is to envision that happening in the wake of the loss of anyone else on the roster. Stormy has been a great safety net lately.

A losing record is cold comfort, even if there are warm spots.

RedLegSuperStar
07-26-2007, 05:32 PM
The Reds have reportedly pulled David Weathers off the market.
Weathers keeps defying expectations and is on his way to another very solid year. Still, there's no telling how much longer the 37-year-old is going to last, and if it'd bring in a quality young starter, the Reds shouldn't be afraid to move him. He's owed $3.1 million next year in the final season of his two-year contract.

RotoWorld.com / SI.com

registerthis
07-26-2007, 05:53 PM
The thing is, some of those cannon-fodder types can pan out to be serviceable major leaguers.

...and can typically be had for far less than the cost of a David Weathers.

BRM
07-26-2007, 06:03 PM
The Reds have reportedly pulled David Weathers off the market.


The front office must really think they are very close to contending. Otherwise that just doesn't make sense.

GAC
07-26-2007, 06:14 PM
This organization needs high-ceiling arms in the minors more than a 37 year old closer, no matter how reliable.

Exactly. And we've been told that there have been scouts, as of late, at recent games observing Weathers. If the deal is there, then you gotta do it.

Set backs to Guardado have probably kept it from happening.

Aronchis
07-26-2007, 06:26 PM
The front office must really think they are very close to contending. Otherwise that just doesn't make sense.

The problem is, Weathers may not help that but, be a sore spot on that idea instead. The Reds have little use for him going into the future.

Redmachine2003
07-26-2007, 06:34 PM
If the Reds can't move Weathers, Conine and Hatteberg for good High A and AA prospects, for a Reds farm system that is almost a waste land at Sarasota and Chat., lets just say Wayne needs to buy a bus ticket out of town. These are the type of players you have to move at the deadline.

nate
07-26-2007, 06:57 PM
RotoWorld.com / SI.com

I thought it might be a ploy to drive up his value but if the Reds say "the van's a-rockin'"...you know the rest.

Blitz Dorsey
07-26-2007, 09:12 PM
It will be too hard to find a decent closer on the open market this winter that would be willing to sign for $5 million or under. Keeping Weathers gives the Reds one less thing to worry about this offseason. Then, with the money freed up from the deadweight that was Eric Milton, they can go after 1 or 2 starting pitchers (they would obviously have to up the payroll to to go after 2, but I think Castalini is willing to do it) and maybe a right-handed hitter who could play 1B and maybe even 3B. Someone like Morgan Ensberg comes to mind. I know he has been awful this year, and was terrible the second half of last year as well, but we might be able to get someone like him for a decent price and he was a 30+ HR guy just a couple years ago. Not saying it has to be Ensberg but someone like that. I would also like to see the Reds go after a RH OF this offseason.

So, by keeping Weathers -- even though it's a one-year fix -- would allow the Reds to concentrate on other areas they need to improve. If they deal him, they will have to sign a closer as a free agent or trade for one this winter. And I think teams who are desperate for a closer always end up overpaying for them. Furthermore, I would submit there won't be a surplus of even average closers available on the market.

puca
07-26-2007, 10:04 PM
Closers are made and not born.

Stuff-challanged relievers flame out quickly.

David Weathers is not an elite closer. If someone is willing to play 'closers' price for David Weathers, the Reds should listen. If we trade Weathers for the right return then we may solve our closer situation for the next 3-4 years (see Taylor, Billy).

GAC
07-26-2007, 10:25 PM
If the Reds can't move Weathers, Conine and Hatteberg for good High A and AA prospects, for a Reds farm system that is almost a waste land at Sarasota and Chat., lets just say Wayne needs to buy a bus ticket out of town. These are the type of players you have to move at the deadline.

Absolutely. This is the area that has caused me to hold off on Krivsky. I want to see what he can do.

As for Conine - I doubt any one is gonna give up aything for him since he has hinted he may retire at season's end.

But if you are going to take the direction that we need to rebuild, then you have two alternatives at your disposal.....

the draft

and acquiring them from other teams. And from teams that are in "need" come the trading deadline.

It's about making that "match" and getting it done.

IslandRed
07-26-2007, 10:27 PM
This just seems like Negotiation 101 here. There are several relievers on the market, some more valued than Weathers, and Krivsky may be tired of fielding offers based on the premise that Weathers can be had for a sack of baseballs. So he may be "taking him off the table" as a tactic to say "look, we don't have to trade him, bring a real offer or don't bother."

I say this with a degree of confidence because I haven't seen the rumored offers out there for Weathers, and there's usually some smoke around the players coveted by the buying GMs.

mth123
07-26-2007, 10:38 PM
I understand the idea of keeping Weathers. Without him the bullpen completely is lost.

Some stuff to think about though:

1. He's never been elite and still really isn't.
2. He is signed reasonably for 2008, but the Reds don't have what it takes for 2008. The window of opportunity is 2009 and beyond when Weathers will be 39 years old and will be a free agent and IMO too old to sign long term. So, he isn't a building block.
3. Aging pitchers can lose it quickly.
4. He's been ridden hard with alot of 2 inning saves. Who knows what effect that may have on him.

I see more downside to keeping him than trading him. The major issue being that he won't be around when the team next has a chance and not having him next year isn't going to make a ton of difference anyway. I say get multiple players back and see if they can be assets in the future. In the mean-time, that $3.1 Million that won't be going to Weathers should be able to net a competent reliever (though maybe not closer material). Its highly likely that next year that is all Weathers will be anyway. I guess I'd rather have his replacement plus the stuff he brings in trade than simply Weathers alone. I really don't think 2008 is a time to compete. It might be if a number of great moves are made. I do know those moves will not be made by keeping status quo.