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Eric_Davis
07-27-2007, 05:25 AM
There's just not much help out there. That's why relief pitching is a problem for nearly every Major League club. Whoever's thinking of trading Homer Bailey for anything is insane. So, you can see why Krivsky has made numerous attempts to trade for pitching, and I'm sure he'll continue to ask for pitching or catching for trades this week and during the winter.

Here's a list of available Free-Agent pitchers after the 2007 season is over with Asterisks next to the ones that have option years that can be invoked:

Keep in mind that anyone of these that are a Type-A pitcher following the 2007 season will cost the REDS their 2nd Round pick next year (unless the REDS have a miracle 2nd half and finish among the top 16 teams in the Majors, then it will cost them their 1st Round pick. I'll also list all of the Type-A and Type-B pitchers from the 2005-2006 rankings so you can guess if signing that pitcher to a contract will cost them their 2nd Round pick.

Starting Pitchers

Kris Benson * BAL
Paul Byrd * CLE
Shawn Chacon PIT
Matt Clement BOS
Bartolo Colon LAA
Scott Elarton KC
Josh Fogg COL
Casey Fossum * TB
Freddy Garcia PHI
Livan Hernandez ARZ
Jason Jennings HOU
Brian Lawrence * COL
Jon Lieber PHI
Kyle Lohse CIN
Rodrigo Lopez COL
Wade Miller CHC
Eric Milton CIN
Odalis Perez * KC
Joel Pineiro * BOS
Kenny Rogers DET
Curt Schilling BOS
Carlos Silva MIN
Julian Tavarez * BOS
Brett Tomko * LAD
Kip Wells STL
Randy Wolf * LAD
Jaret Wright BAL
Carlos Zambrano CHC
Victor Zambrano NYM

Relief Pitchers
Jeremy Affeldt COL
Armando Benitez FLA
Hector Carrasco * LAA
Francisco Cordero MIL
Rheal Cormier CIN
Vic Darensbourg DET
Elmer Dessens MIL
Scott Eyre * CHC
Trevor Hoffman * SD
Jason Isringhausen* STL
Todd Jones DET
Jorge Julio COL
Joe Kennedy OAK
Byung-Hyun Kim FLA
Scott Linebrink MIL
Ron Mahay TEX
Trever Miller HOU
Mike Myers NYY
Joe Nathan * MIN
Joel Pineiro * BOS
Chris Reitsma SEA
Mariano Rivera NYY
Rudy Seanez SD
Mike Timlin BOS
Mike Venafro MIN
Luis Vizcaino NYY
Bob Wickman ATL
Scott Williamson BAL
Jay Witasick TB
Kerry Wood CHC

American League Elias Rankings for 2005-6:

Starters

1 Johan Santana 96.569 A
2 C.C. Sabathia 87.059 A
3 Roy Halladay 85.882 A
4 Barry Zito 85.196 A
5 John Lackey 84.510 A
6 Josh Beckett 83.922 A
7 Randy Johnson 83.431 A
8 Freddy Garcia 81.667 A
9 Dan Haren 80.392 A
10 Jose Contreras 80.196 A
11 Jon Garland 79.706 A
12 Cliff Lee 78.922 A
13 Kevin Millwood 78.627 A
14 Mike Mussina 78.235 A
15 Scott Kazmir 76.471 A
16 Mark Buehrle 75.392 A
17 Erik Bedard 75.098 A
18 A.J. Burnett 74.216 A
19 Esteban Loaiza 74.118 A
20 Kenny Rogers 73.627 A
21 Jake Westbrook 71.471 A
22t Jeremy Bonderman 71.176 A
22t Chien-Ming Wang 71.176 A
24 Tim Wakefield 70.000 A
25 Curt Schilling 68.039 A
26 Joe Blanton 65.588 A
27 Bartolo Colon 64.216 B
28 Javier Vazquez 63.235 B
29 Kris Benson 62.941 B
30 Ted Lilly 62.549 B
31 Gustavo Chacin 62.451 B
32 Cory Lidle 60.980 B
33 Ervin Santana 60.588 B
34 Rich Harden 59.412 B
35 Gil Meche 58.039 B
36t Vicente Padilla 57.843 B
36t Nate Robertson 57.843 B
38 Rodrigo Lopez 55.882 B
39 Kelvim Escobar 55.098 B
40t Paul Byrd 53.725 B
40t Daniel Cabrera 53.725 B
40t Francisco Liriano 53.725 B
43 Jarrod Washburn 52.353 B

Relievers

1 Mariano Rivera 92.677 A
2 Francisco Rodriguez 91.838 A
3 Joe Nathan 91.285 A
4 B.J. Ryan 90.751 A
5 Huston Street 90.236 A
6 Scot Shields 87.796 A
7 Justin Duchscherer 86.384 A
8 J.J. Putz 83.734 A
9 Kyle Farnsworth 81.426 A
10 Todd Jones 81.121 A
11 Hector Carrasco 79.519 A
12 Jonathan Papelbon 78.947 A
13 Juan Rincon 77.231 A
14 Rafael Betancourt 76.011 A
15 Mike MacDougal 75.400 A
16 Akinori Otsuka 74.752 A
17 Fernando Rodney 74.714 A
18 Kiko Calero 74.104 A
19 Justin Speier 74.027 A
20 Jesse Crain 73.341 A
21 Mike Timlin 72.960 A
22 Chris Ray 72.273 A
23t Dustin Hermanson 68.268 A
23t Julio Mateo 68.268 A
25 Bobby Jenks 67.468 A
26 Brendan Donnelly 67.048 A
27 David Riske 64.912 A
28 Joel Zumaya 63.768 A
29 Rafael Soriano 63.730 A
30 Joaquin Benoit 63.082 A
31 Jason Frasor 62.738 A
32 Neal Cotts 62.357 A
33 Scott Proctor 62.204 A
34 Ambiorix Burgos 62.014 A
35 Scott Downs 60.526 A
36 Ron Villone 59.859 B
37 Julian Tavarez 59.573 B
38 Pat Neshek 59.344 B
39 Jamie Walker 59.306 B
40t Brandon McCarthy 56.064 B
40t Mike Myers 56.064 B
42 Todd Williams 55.072 B
43 Keith Foulke 54.691 B
44 Dennys Reyes 54.577 B
45 LaTroy Hawkins 53.661 B
46 Fernando Cabrera 52.937 B
47 Brian Meadows 52.689 B
48 Matt Thornton 52.403 B
49 Matt Miller 52.250 B
50 George Sherrill 52.002 B
51 Tyler Walker 51.564 B
52 Pete Walker 51.030 B
53 Brad Halsey 50.953 B
54t Matt Guerrier 50.000 B
54t Joe Kennedy 50.000 B
56 Joel Peralta 49.733 B
57 Jay Witasick 49.123 B
58 Craig Dingman 48.970 B

National League Elias Rankings for 2005-6:

Starters

1 Chris Carpenter 97.222 A
2 Roy Oswalt 96.487 A
3 John Smoltz 93.873 A
4 Dontrelle Willis 91.748 A
5 Carlos Zambrano 91.585 A
6 Brandon Webb 90.196 A
7 Andy Pettitte 89.624 A
8 Pedro Martinez 86.111 A
9 Chris Capuano 84.641 A
10 Derek Lowe 83.987 A
11 Tim Hudson 83.824 A
12 Bronson Arroyo 83.742 A
13 Brett Myers 82.925 A
14 Aaron Harang 82.843 A
15 Livan Hernandez 80.310 A
16 Jason Schmidt 78.431 A
17t Tom Glavine 78.023 A
17t Jake Peavy 78.023 A
19 Jon Lieber 76.634 A
20 Brad Penny 76.144 A
21 Jeff Suppan 75.735 A
22 Chris Young 75.490 A
23 Greg Maddux 75.327 A
24 Doug Davis 75.000 A
25 Roger Clemens 70.098 A
26 Matt Morris 68.464 A
27 Jamie Moyer 68.382 A
28 Woody Williams 68.137 A
29 Noah Lowry 67.402 A
30 Ben Sheets 66.176 A
31 Jeff Francis 65.523 A
32 Mark Mulder 63.889 B
33 David Wells 60.458 B
34 Orlando Hernandez 60.294 B
35 Jeff Weaver 60.049 B
36 John Patterson 59.804 B
37t Jason Jennings 59.641 B
37t Jason Marquis 59.641 B
39 Claudio Vargas 57.843 B
40 Chan Ho Park 57.680 B
41 Zach Duke 57.026 B
42t Tomo Ohka 54.739 B
42t Ramon Ortiz 54.739 B
44 Brett Tomko 54.575 B
45 Aaron Cook 54.248 B
46 Dave Bush 53.513 B
47 Mark Prior 52.614 B
48 Horacio Ramirez 52.451 B
49 Mark Hendrickson 52.288 B
50 Matt Cain 51.634 B
51 Eric Milton 49.755 B
52 Josh Johnson 48.938 B

Relievers

1 Billy Wagner 94.397 A
2 Chad Cordero 89.865 A
3 Bob Howry 88.549 A
4 Dan Wheeler 86.497 A
5 Tom Gordon 86.436 A
6 Brian Fuentes 85.073 A
7 Scott Linebrink 84.231 A
8 Trevor Hoffman 83.298 A
9 Brad Lidge 82.058 A
10 Aaron Heilman 79.608 A
11 Francisco Cordero 79.363 A
12 Mike Gonzalez 77.557 A
13 Duaner Sanchez 77.128 A
14 Chad Qualls 76.240 A
15 Takashi Saito 75.536 A
16 Salomon Torres 74.617 A
17 Scott Eyre 72.229 A
18 Bob Wickman 72.168 A
19 Jason Isringhausen 72.137 A
20 Jose Valverde 71.341 A
21 Jon Rauch 70.729 A
22 David Weathers 69.994 A
23 Matt Wise 69.871 A
24 Danys Baez 69.810 A
25 Roberto Hernandez 69.473 A
26 Derrick Turnbow 69.259 A
27 Eric Gagne 69.106 A
28 Joe Borowski 68.402 A
29 Ryan Dempster 68.034 A
30 Aaron Fultz 67.697 A
31 Eddie Guardado 66.656 A
32 Michael Wuertz 66.626 A
33 Geoff Geary 65.064 A
34 Luis Vizcaino 65.034 A
35 Russ Springer 63.595 A
36 Trever Miller 63.533 A
37 Will Ohman 63.457 A
38 Rudy Seanez 63.319 A
39 Jonathan Broxton 63.166 A
40 Jorge Julio 63.105 A
41 Chad Bradford 62.890 A
42 Clay Hensley 61.482 A
43 Cla Meredith 61.436 A
44 Damaso Marte 61.084 B
45 Ryan Madson 59.675 B
46 Luis Ayala 59.186 B
47 Gary Majewski 59.063 B
48 Kent Mercker 58.696 B
49 Todd Coffey 58.665 B
50 Pedro Feliciano 57.823 B
51 Josh Hancock 57.410 B
52 Braden Looper 56.828 B
53 Brandon Medders 56.461 B
54 Jorge Sosa 56.338 B
55 Arthur Rhodes 56.277 B
56 Scott Schoeneweis 56.108 B
57 Adam Wainwright 56.093 B
58 Elmer Dessens 55.818 B
59 Matt Capps 55.680 B
60 Rick Helling 55.144 B
61 Miguel Batista 55.113 B
62 Oscar Villarreal 54.042 B
63 Alan Embree 53.950 B
64 John Grabow 53.552 B
65 Chris Reitsma 52.817 B
66 Mike Stanton 52.725 B
67 Darren Oliver 51.975 B
68 Armando Benitez 50.000 B
69 Ramon Ramirez 49.923 B
70t Jose Mesa 49.694 B
70t Guillermo Mota 49.694 B
72 Brandon Lyon 49.357 B

Highlifeman21
07-27-2007, 08:02 AM
Count me in the insane camp then, b/c I would trade Homer Bailey for a #2 MLB SP that can actually help us for 2008, 2009 and 2010. Right now, Homer might be ready for 2009.

2009 is the year to target for the Reds.

There is no possible chance the Reds are contenders in 2008 given the current roster and lack of direction from the Front Office. This roster is littered with garbage, and until the garbage is taken out, the Reds won't win. We would be kidding ourselves to think that if Joey Votto and Jay Bruce come up for 2008, that we have any chance to make the playoffs. While those two will provide some, but arguably not much, help to the offense, the pitching staff is still dismal. We currently have 1 SP that's legitimate, and a jekyl and hyde #2 SP. After that, at best we have 3 #5s.

The bullpen? We have young and unproven guys like McBeth and Burton, and a guy without a true role, Coffey. The jury is still out if Bray and Majewski will ever contribute for this club. As for the rest of them, well, it wouldn't surprise me if we saw them wear out paths to and from Louisville until they're out of options, in which case the Reds might be out of options, unless we want to see The Trade happen again for "bullpen help".

I don't buy for 1 second the notion that if we sign a big name #1, #2 or #3 SP in FA that the Reds are anything more than a .500 ballclub for 2008.

bucksfan2
07-27-2007, 08:14 AM
Count me in the insane camp then, b/c I would trade Homer Bailey for a #2 MLB SP that can actually help us for 2008, 2009 and 2010. Right now, Homer might be ready for 2009.

2009 is the year to target for the Reds.

There is no possible chance the Reds are contenders in 2008 given the current roster and lack of direction from the Front Office. This roster is littered with garbage, and until the garbage is taken out, the Reds won't win. We would be kidding ourselves to think that if Joey Votto and Jay Bruce come up for 2008, that we have any chance to make the playoffs. While those two will provide some, but arguably not much, help to the offense, the pitching staff is still dismal. We currently have 1 SP that's legitimate, and a jekyl and hyde #2 SP. After that, at best we have 3 #5s.

The bullpen? We have young and unproven guys like McBeth and Burton, and a guy without a true role, Coffey. The jury is still out if Bray and Majewski will ever contribute for this club. As for the rest of them, well, it wouldn't surprise me if we saw them wear out paths to and from Louisville until they're out of options, in which case the Reds might be out of options, unless we want to see The Trade happen again for "bullpen help".

I don't buy for 1 second the notion that if we sign a big name #1, #2 or #3 SP in FA that the Reds are anything more than a .500 ballclub for 2008.

Trading Bailey doesn't make sense one bit. You finally hvae a guy who looks like he could be a future ace but you want to trade him because he isn't going to be in true from for about a year? I have become discuraged by reds fans who are willing to trade Bailey after a short stint in the majors. This attitude of winning now by trading your future will do nothing more than send this club to another 5 years of losing records. You build around guys like Bailey and Bruce, you dont trade them when they have a lackluster start. What happens if Bruce comes up and hits .100 in his first 20 atbats? Do you send him down and entertain trade offers? The reaction by a lot of reds fan regarding Bailey has made me glad that the football season starts today.

Highlifeman21
07-27-2007, 08:24 AM
Trading Bailey doesn't make sense one bit. You finally hvae a guy who looks like he could be a future ace but you want to trade him because he isn't going to be in true from for about a year? I have become discuraged by reds fans who are willing to trade Bailey after a short stint in the majors. This attitude of winning now by trading your future will do nothing more than send this club to another 5 years of losing records. You build around guys like Bailey and Bruce, you dont trade them when they have a lackluster start. What happens if Bruce comes up and hits .100 in his first 20 atbats? Do you send him down and entertain trade offers? The reaction by a lot of reds fan regarding Bailey has made me glad that the football season starts today.

Bailey looks good on paper, but have you actually seen him pitch? He has all the hype surrounding a stud prospect, but has nothing to compliment his very hittable and vastly overused fastball. He's still light years away from having command over any of his pitches, and is even farther away from developing his change up or his curveball. I'm hoping Homer Bailey will have figured everything out by Opening Day 2009, but I'm not going to hold my breath.

I'm not convinced Bailey is part of our future, that's why I would trade him. To me, he's still all hype, no production. I don't put my eggs in that basket. I would easily trade Homer Bailey for a #2 or #3 SP that's had success at the MLB level, rather than a kid who isn't developed and may turn out to be a bust. That's the beauty of prospects, they can easily go from stud to bust in no time at all.

lollipopcurve
07-27-2007, 08:42 AM
I would easily trade Homer Bailey for a #2 or #3 SP that's had success at the MLB level,

I assume this will be a high-salaried player, right? And you pick up Dunn's option? And you keep Griffey? So, between Harang, Arroyo, Griffey, Dunn and your "proven #2/3," that's probably 50 million. And you've got 20 players to go...

RedLegSuperStar
07-27-2007, 08:56 AM
"Contend In Two Thousand Ten"

Highlifeman21
07-27-2007, 09:09 AM
I assume this will be a high-salaried player, right? And you pick up Dunn's option? And you keep Griffey? So, between Harang, Arroyo, Griffey, Dunn and your "proven #2/3," that's probably 50 million. And you've got 20 players to go...

Wouldn't pick up Griffey.

Would entertain offers for Arroyo.

Would absolutely pick up Dunn, and Harang right now is our franchise player.

bucksfan2
07-27-2007, 09:09 AM
Bailey looks good on paper, but have you actually seen him pitch? He has all the hype surrounding a stud prospect, but has nothing to compliment his very hittable and vastly overused fastball. He's still light years away from having command over any of his pitches, and is even farther away from developing his change up or his curveball. I'm hoping Homer Bailey will have figured everything out by Opening Day 2009, but I'm not going to hold my breath.

I'm not convinced Bailey is part of our future, that's why I would trade him. To me, he's still all hype, no production. I don't put my eggs in that basket. I would easily trade Homer Bailey for a #2 or #3 SP that's had success at the MLB level, rather than a kid who isn't developed and may turn out to be a bust. That's the beauty of prospects, they can easily go from stud to bust in no time at all.

Homer for the likes of Marquis, Suppan, Jeff Weaver was counted on as a 3rd pitcher, Mench, Lilly, etc. These are all guys who are being paid like a #3 pitcher. Heck why don't we trade Bailey for Lincecum.

lollipopcurve
07-27-2007, 09:32 AM
Wouldn't pick up Griffey.
There is no option till 2009. You have to pay him in 08 or trade him.


Would entertain offers for Arroyo.
What does this mean? You seem certain of what you could get for Bailey... what would you be able to get for Arroyo? If you trade him, who picks up his 200 innings?


Would absolutely pick up Dunn, and Harang right now is our franchise player.
OK, you seem to be claiming a window that extends from 2008 to 2010, but Dunn is not signed beyond 08, and his agent's comments at the time of his extension implied that Dunn was willing to give up only 1 year of free agency. Are you assuming he's signable beyond 08?

nate
07-27-2007, 09:39 AM
Bailey looks good on paper, but have you actually seen him pitch? He has all the hype surrounding a stud prospect, but has nothing to compliment his very hittable and vastly overused fastball. He's still light years away from having command over any of his pitches, and is even farther away from developing his change up or his curveball. I'm hoping Homer Bailey will have figured everything out by Opening Day 2009, but I'm not going to hold my breath.

I'm not convinced Bailey is part of our future, that's why I would trade him. To me, he's still all hype, no production. I don't put my eggs in that basket. I would easily trade Homer Bailey for a #2 or #3 SP that's had success at the MLB level, rather than a kid who isn't developed and may turn out to be a bust. That's the beauty of prospects, they can easily go from stud to bust in no time at all.

Do you think that some of those potential trade partners might also see through said "hype"?

I mean, if the Reds (of all teams) don't think he's worth waiting for, which teams will and give up a "#2" or "#3" starter while they wait?

I think he's worth waiting for, myself. If the Reds were in a _serious_ postseason hunt, it might be worth it. They aren't and they need as much young talent as they can get.

nate
07-27-2007, 09:52 AM
To expand on that original list, if you're looking to "go young" (get a guy under 30), here's what it looks like for starting pitching:

Carlos Zambrano
Kyle Lohse
Carlos Silva
Casey Fossum
Tony Armas
Shawn Chacon
Jason Jennings

Aside from Zambrano, I think the best one in that list already has a Reds hat.

lollipopcurve
07-27-2007, 10:09 AM
To expand on that original list, if you're looking to "go young" (get a guy under 30), here's what it looks like for starting pitching:

Carlos Zambrano
Kyle Lohse
Carlos Silva
Casey Fossum
Tony Armas
Shawn Chacon
Jason Jennings

Aside from Zambrano, I think the best one in that list already has a Reds hat.

Yep. I'd love to see them stick with Lohse. He's got a 2.57 home ERA in 9 starts this year -- he's shown he can handle GAB. I've said it alot -- he's still in his twenties and he's been durable his whole career. He may be inconsistent, but he's league-average and healthy, and he still has a chance to get better.
Other guys I'd imagine they'd pursue are the cagey groundballers -- Silva, as an ex-Twin, will certainly get a phone call, and wouldn't be surprised to hear they like Josh Fogg.

Falls City Beer
07-27-2007, 10:22 AM
I still think there's a chance that it's Griffey who gets unloaded this deadline.

And I like Belisle's chances of improvement far more than Lohse's. Dump Lohse and shoot for real improvement. Without throwing away payroll.

lollipopcurve
07-27-2007, 10:26 AM
I still there's a chance that it's Griffey who gets unloaded this deadline.

I agree. I have to think there's a match with Detroit.

I doubt anything happens, but there have to be teams interested, especially AL teams...

Patrick Bateman
07-27-2007, 10:29 AM
There is no option till 2009. You have to pay him in 08 or trade him.



Plus if you are simply looking to get rid of him, you could trade him right now and get a really useful prospect or two.

Considering the current prices in the market, Griffey's contract and years remaining (plus his huge year) makes him a worthy gamble to a team with a high payroll. If I'm a contending team with the payroll room. Even if possible there is simply no reason why you would drp his contract when he has plenty of trade value.

nate
07-27-2007, 10:41 AM
I still think there's a chance that it's Griffey who gets unloaded this deadline.

And I like Belisle's chances of improvement far more than Lohse's. Dump Lohse and shoot for real improvement. Without throwing away payroll.

Great idea!

Who and how?

lollipopcurve
07-27-2007, 10:50 AM
I like Belisle's chances of improvement far more than Lohse's. Dump Lohse and shoot for real improvement. Without throwing away payroll.

Take into account that Belisle has had recurring back problems and that he's never pitched a full season as a starter in the majors. A lot of unknowns remain with him. If Griffey or Dunn goes, you've got plenty of cash to add to the rotation (the offensive core is still young and cheap).

WVRedsFan
07-27-2007, 10:50 AM
Wouldn't pick up Griffey.

Would entertain offers for Arroyo.

Would absolutely pick up Dunn, and Harang right now is our franchise player.

I totally agree with this except for Griffey. Griffey means attendance and there is no one at present we could put out there who could even come close to his production, which is important on a team that is presently only averaging a little over 3 runs per game. Besides, he's a good draw for the fans.

As for the rest of it, I would shop Arroyo, but hope the GM doesn't get so generous everytime someone has a good season. Extend a guy and then trade him? Dunn needs to stay and Harang needs to stay at least until his contract is up. Guys like Aaron don't come around often.

cincrazy
07-27-2007, 10:56 AM
I keep hearing about this extra cash that we can save by dumping certain players that would allow us to go get a "proven FA pitcher." What exactly does this mean? Who is out there to get? Nobody. We're not going to spend enough money to get a guy like Zambrano, and the second tier on down isn't any better than what we already have for the most part.

I'd hate to break it to some of you, but no knight in shining armor is riding in on a white horse to save our rotation any time soon. We have to be the one's to develop that pitching, and maintain that pitching. Relying on free agency is a mistake.

KronoRed
07-27-2007, 11:07 AM
I think people are going to be surprised when the saved cash from Milton ext goes to giving raises to people we already have.

Bob is not going to up payroll to where he is losing money

Eric_Davis
07-27-2007, 11:58 AM
I keep hearing about this extra cash that we can save by dumping certain players that would allow us to go get a "proven FA pitcher." What exactly does this mean? Who is out there to get? Nobody. We're not going to spend enough money to get a guy like Zambrano, and the second tier on down isn't any better than what we already have for the most part.

I'd hate to break it to some of you, but no knight in shining armor is riding in on a white horse to save our rotation any time soon. We have to be the one's to develop that pitching, and maintain that pitching. Relying on free agency is a mistake.

That's it in a nutshell. It also makes me want to keep both Lohse and Weathers, as anything resembling either of them will cost us plenty.

flyer85
07-27-2007, 12:02 PM
not likely in the free agent market ... it is always way overheated.

Falls City Beer
07-27-2007, 01:26 PM
Take into account that Belisle has had recurring back problems and that he's never pitched a full season as a starter in the majors. A lot of unknowns remain with him. If Griffey or Dunn goes, you've got plenty of cash to add to the rotation (the offensive core is still young and cheap).

Belisle's a decent bet to collapse, too; no doubt.

But he doesn't cost anything and he Ks people at a decent rate. The hope is that after this season, he will have pitched that full season and will be improved next. It may or may not happen, but it's a relatively cheap experiment.

Lohse is very likely not to improve, relatively likely to stay the same, and is highly likely to regress. Plus, he'll cost money and will get a couple of seasons at minimum on his FA deal. I don't want to keep him around at $6-$7 million a season, when you can replace him with, say, a Belisle-like pitcher for peanuts.

Eric_Davis
07-27-2007, 07:10 PM
Belisle's a decent bet to collapse, too; no doubt.

But he doesn't cost anything and he Ks people at a decent rate. The hope is that after this season, he will have pitched that full season and will be improved next. It may or may not happen, but it's a relatively cheap experiment.

Lohse is very likely not to improve, relatively likely to stay the same, and is highly likely to regress. Plus, he'll cost money and will get a couple of seasons at minimum on his FA deal. I don't want to keep him around at $6-$7 million a season, when you can replace him with, say, a Belisle-like pitcher for peanuts.

Yes, he really did need that full seasoning of starting in order to stretch his arm out. I wish he would have began it in AAA where he could also work on other pitches at the same time without worrying about winning the game. It was tough love in the bigs for him as you could tell by Mackinen's comments about him. I give the REDS a lot of credit for how they're handling him and Bailey in order to try to get them to mature as best as possible. Give the Lizard through all of 2008 in AAA and he might be a good pitcher come 2009 himself, and he'll still be young at that point.

jojo
07-27-2007, 07:44 PM
The thing to remember about Homer is that stuff and command aren't the same thing. The hype about Homer is primarily due to his stuff and it's largely justified. He has command issues which unfortunately is preventing a maturation of his *pitchability*.

Stuff without command in a youngster is not nearly as damning as command without stuff because the command hurdle CAN be overcome...

While nothing in life is a certainty-especially with pitching prospects-I like Homer's chances.

Patrick Bateman
07-27-2007, 07:48 PM
The thing to remember about Homer is that stuff and command aren't the same thing. The hype about Homer is primarily due to his stuff and it's largely justified. He has command issues which unfortunately is preventing a maturation of his *pitchability*.

Stuff without command in a youngster is not nearly as damning as command without stuff because the command hurdle CAN be overcome...

While nothing in life is a certainty-especially with pitching prospects-I like Homer's chances.

I agree. Very good post. Plus considering the good health of his arm to date, I think his chances of developing are better than the average 21 year old top pitching prospect.

Aronchis
07-27-2007, 07:52 PM
Using the model that Krivsky is GM he will probably be desperate for a closer. He already has unloaded his bullets with paying starters so we will have to depend on players with names such as "Homer" "Johnny" and "Charles" to fill out the rotation. The Reds are such a sexy team:cool:.

Falls City Beer
07-27-2007, 07:54 PM
The thing to remember about Homer is that stuff and command aren't the same thing. The hype about Homer is primarily due to his stuff and it's largely justified. He has command issues which unfortunately is preventing a maturation of his *pitchability*.

Stuff without command in a youngster is not nearly as damning as command without stuff because the command hurdle CAN be overcome...

While nothing in life is a certainty-especially with pitching prospects-I like Homer's chances.

I think for some there's some justifiable concern not only about his command, which is blatantly obvious, but ALSO his stuff. All he's been able to do is beat up on minor league hitters for a season and a half, roughly. I'm just not sure what that says.

I think Bailey will likely experience a Zach Greinke and end up in some team's pen someday.

Eric_Davis
07-28-2007, 12:14 AM
For the record, there's fewer than 1 in 100 Major League starters that had 3 pitches under control by the age of 21.