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RedLegSuperStar
07-28-2007, 01:59 PM
Fay -


My theory

I caught the end of last night's game in bar full of Cubs fans. They went from way up to way down pretty quickly. That was one very nice play by Ryan Freel and David Ross. Edwin Encarnacion's big night came at a good time for him. When Alex Gonzalez comes back, Pete Mackanin is going to be looking for places to play Jeff Keppinger. And Keppinger plays third.

Anyway, my theory, which I'll explore further in my Sunday Reds Insider, is that the Reds won't do a lot at the trade deadline. I think they'll trade Kyle Lohse and maybe Scott Hatteberg and/or Jeff Conine. Why? This is simply my theory, but I think Wayne Krivsky wants to give Mackanin an opportunity to get the permanent job.

If the Reds trade Adam Dunn, David Weathers and Bronson Arroyo for prospects, it would be difficult to continue to play as well as they have under Mackanin. By the way, the way the Reds are playing .636 baseball under Mackanin. If they play that well the rest of the way, they'd finish 81-81. That's the magic number (or numbers) for Mackanin to get the job in my opinion.

So his theory is that the Reds most likely move Encarnacion, Lohse, Hatteberg and/or Conine, least likely move Dunn, Weathers, and Arroyo for prospects, and give the managerial ob to Mackanin if the team finishes 81-81....

.. Well now I feel better!

:bang::help::bang:

redsmetz
07-28-2007, 02:16 PM
I don't read the Edwin Encarnacion being traded into what he's saying, but maybe I'm just being obtuse.

I think Wayne's looking to win ballgames now, period. Continuing to add depth to the organization is also a goal, but I don't think they need to be mutually exclusive. Just my thoughts on the matter.

I think Lohse definitely gets moved and Conine, given his desire to perhaps retire. Best to get something for his time here. I still like Hatteberg on this team, but if we get a good offer, I'd take it. I understand he and Votto don't match as a platoon, but I don't mind Hatt off the bench and mentoring Votto as he continues to develop at the ML.

Spitball
07-28-2007, 02:27 PM
Sometimes the best trades are the ones you don't make, and if the current market isn't generous to the sellers, then I'd rather see the Reds try to win some games. What is the benefit to picking up fringe prospects?

Scrap Irony
07-28-2007, 02:30 PM
If Minnesota dangles Slowey or Garza for EE, make the deal.

Between Freel and Keppinger, the Reds can cobble together a decent option at the hot corner in return for a possible #2 starter.

Otherwise, keep him. He's cheap and fairly productive.

Falls City Beer
07-28-2007, 03:23 PM
If Minnesota dangles Slowey or Garza for EE, make the deal.

Between Freel and Keppinger, the Reds can cobble together a decent option at the hot corner in return for a possible #2 starter.

Otherwise, keep him. He's cheap and fairly productive.

The Twins are going to stubborn themselves into inconsequentiality over the next several seasons. Starting with Santana's first FA season.

Razor Shines
07-28-2007, 03:41 PM
I don't read the Edwin Encarnacion being traded into what he's saying, but maybe I'm just being obtuse.

I think Wayne's looking to win ballgames now, period. Continuing to add depth to the organization is also a goal, but I don't think they need to be mutually exclusive. Just my thoughts on the matter.

I think Lohse definitely gets moved and Conine, given his desire to perhaps retire. Best to get something for his time here. I still like Hatteberg on this team, but if we get a good offer, I'd take it. I understand he and Votto don't match as a platoon, but I don't mind Hatt off the bench and mentoring Votto as he continues to develop at the ML.
I also don't think it says that at all.

MrCinatit
07-28-2007, 07:14 PM
Nah, he's not saying Edwin will get traded - but Fay seems to be "cutely" dancing around it by saying Kepp can play third.

Unassisted
07-28-2007, 07:20 PM
I can't (and refuse to) imagine that the lack of transactions is motivated by giving the interim manager the best shot to win the job. Since Fay admits that it's strictly conjecture on his part, I advise against putting any stock in this notion.

If there's any truth in this line of reasoning, my own conjecture is that Krivsky is standing pat to win now because he believes he won't be around next season. Thus his success this season will determine whether he ever gets considered for a GM job elsewhere.

redsmetz
07-28-2007, 07:41 PM
I can't (and refuse to) imagine that the lack of transactions is motivated by giving the interim manager the best shot to win the job. Since Fay admits that it's strictly conjecture on his part, I advise against putting any stock in this notion.

If there's any truth in this line of reasoning, my own conjecture is that Krivsky is standing pat to win now because he believes he won't be around next season. Thus his success this season will determine whether he ever gets considered for a GM job elsewhere.

I would guess that nothing is happening because we're not being given a good return. I think it has nothing with Wayne trying to save his job.

Unassisted
07-28-2007, 08:06 PM
I would guess that nothing is happening because we're not being given a good return. I think it has nothing with Wayne trying to save his job.

I agree. I was just giving Fay the benefit of the doubt that there might be a grain of truth in his connecting of the dots. I'd like to think that my connected dots produced a picture rather than an amorphous blob. ;)

wheels
07-28-2007, 08:23 PM
In my mind, John Fay is the Dan O'Brien of Baseball Writers. The Mouthpiece of a Dreadful Organization.

He and the club seem to be intertwined. The Reds' fortunes will never change until Fay is vanquished from his post.

redsmetz
07-28-2007, 08:27 PM
In my mind, John Fay is the Dan O'Brien of Baseball Writers. The Mouthpiece of a Dreadful Organization.

He and the club seem to be intertwined. The Reds' fortunes will never change until Fay is vanquished from his post.

I don't see it that way - I think John Fay runs with every shred of a rumor to puff himself up - I give little credence to much of what he says - particularly when he does his "analysis"

wheels
07-28-2007, 08:29 PM
I don't see it that way - I think John Fay runs with every shred of a rumor to puff himself up - I give little credence to much of what he says - particularly when he does his "analysis"

I was using dramatic hyperbole for effect.

Basically, I was saying that I don't like John Fay.

KronoRed
07-28-2007, 09:14 PM
I was using dramatic hyperbole for effect.

Basically, I was saying that I don't like John Fay.

I fear the day the post goes out of business, the Reds will have NO decent writers following them

Yikesorama