Reds Payroll, 2008/2009...

[BLEEDS]

Since there have been many debates on here regarding payroll - some related to "We can't Afford Adam Dunn", or "we can't afford to sign this guy or that guy" - and many scenarios put out there for contracts, etc. I decided to do some research and put out the most exact details of our Payrolls for 2008 and 2009.
For reference, the 2007 Payroll is at about $70M - total out pay, including buyouts, cash paid to other teams for trades (LaRue, e.g.), etc.

These numbers are for people CURRENTLY Scheduled to be on the 2008 and 2009 roster, with Guaranteed salaries OR options. Numbers in Millions.
I've taken very few liberties - e.g. putting my choice of RP's at/under $500K, including Santos; swapping out Gosling for a Bray or Maj wouldn't change but a few 100K at most. Counting Bailey on the 2008 roster. Votto in, Hatteberg out, etc.


2008:
SP
Harang R 6.500
Arroyo R 3.950
TBD
Bailey R 0.380
Belisle R 0.480

RP
Weathers R 3.000 approx. Salary is 2.75M but due escalators based on innings/appearances
Stanton L 3.000
Coffey R 0.925
Santos R 0.500 approx.
Burton R 0.380
Coutlangus L 0.380
Gosling L 0.380

OF
Griffey Jr L 8.447 approx. Annual Salary is $12.5M per year, however most of it deferred ($6.5Mper); ESPN however had his 2007 salary at $8.446M
Dunn L 13.000 Club Option, $500K buyout
Freel R 3.000
Hamilton L 0.380
Hopper R 0.380

IF
Gonzalez R 4.625
Castro R 0.975
EE R 0.408
Phillips R 0.408
Votto L 0.380
Keppinger R 0.380

C
Ross R 2.250
Valentin S 1.300 Club Option, 75K buy-out

TOTAL 2008 PAYROLL 55.807

Other Options:
Guardado L 3.000 Club Option, no buyout
Hatteberg L 1.850 Club Option, 150K buyout

That leaves you about $15M short of 2007 payroll, and short a SP


2009:
SP
Harang R 11.000
Arroyo R 9.500
TBD
Bailey R 0.380
Belisle R 0.480

RP
CLOSER TBD
Stanton L 2.5M Club Option, $500K buyout
TBD
TBD
Burton R 0.380
Coutlangus L 0.380
Gosling L 0.500

OF
Griffey/Bruce 0.400 Bruce + $4M buyout for Griffey, otherwise $12.5M (or 8.446, etc…)
Dunn L 15.000
Freel R 4.000
Hamilton L 0.380
Hopper R 0.380

IF
Gonzalez R 5.375
Castro R 1.1M $100K buyout
EE R 0.408
Phillips R 0.408
Votto L 0.380
Keppinger R 0.380

C
Ross R 3.500
TBD

TOTAL 2009 PAYROLL 53.230
*Short a back-up Catcher, 2 RP, and a SP
counting Dunn at $15M and Bruce at 400K


PEACE

-BLEEDS

[SMcGavin]

Very well done. I didn't realize the Arroyo and Harang raises didn't come into effect until 2009, when Griffey is off the books. Gotta give Wayne a bit of credit for that. This makes it clear in my eyes that Wayne is doing the right thing with Dunn - don't trade him unless you get a huge offer, because Cincinnati certainly can afford him and still have room to add payroll in the offseason.

[Screwball]

Very well done.

I second that. Excellent job, BLEEDS. Hopefully this nonsense about needing to "get rid" of Dunn's contract will end.

[Degenerate39]

I second that. Excellent job, BLEEDS. Hopefully this nonsense about needing to "get rid" of Dunn's contract will end.

It'll never stop. It's a shame a good player like Dunn getting trashed 24/7 from the people who should be cheering him on.

[jimbo]

It'll never stop. It's a shame a good player like Dunn getting trashed 24/7 from the people who should be cheering him on.

Not everyone who supports a trade of Dunn is trashing him. I'm a big Dunn fan but just feel that his $13 million could be spent more wisely. If Bleeds payroll calculations are accurate, then $15 million isn't very much to fix a wreck of a bullpen and to pick up another starter, but $28 million could go a long way. It isn't nonsense at all.

Again though, I am not advocating trading him away for nothing. If you can't get a good return, keep him.

[Screwball]

Again though, I am not advocating trading him away for nothing. If you can't get a good return, keep him.

Fair enough, and I think most Reds fans would agree with that. What's very frustrating is when you get guys like Lance McAlister and others beating the drum of trading Dunn for "a bag of baseballs" - i.e., simply to remove him from the team. If the Reds can trade him for a (some) stud prospect(s) and an MLB ready position player, I'm all for it.

But to advocate trading him for middling MiL players (simply to get the $13 mill off the books) or, worse yet, not even bothering to pick up his option for 2008 is what I consider nonsense.

[BLEEDS]

I would trade Adam Dunn - for Chad Cordero. Cordero's not a FA until 2009, and we might be able to sign him LT. Cordero also is making about $6M less than Dunn.

The problem is - as my other post shows - it's NOT an easy thing to do to replace Dunn's RUNS CREATED, unless you are DEDICATED to replacing him with a $10-11M FA LF-er - AND go out and get some REAL Pitching, that can MAKE A DIFFERENCE in our win total.

Not a simple thing - versus Keeping Dunn and going and getting some Pitching...

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[dunner13]

Not everyone who supports a trade of Dunn is trashing him. I'm a big Dunn fan but just feel that his $13 million could be spent more wisely. If Bleeds payroll calculations are accurate, then $15 million isn't very much to fix a wreck of a bullpen and to pick up another starter, but $28 million could go a long way. It isn't nonsense at all.

Again though, I am not advocating trading him away for nothing. If you can't get a good return, keep him.

28 million would not go along way when you have to also pick up an outfielder to replace dunns offense, which would probably end up costing you more then 13 million. Adam Dunn is not overpriced, if we get an awesome trade offer for him then trade him, but to just trade him to save some money is dumb and its the reason this team hasnt won in a number of years.

[Chi-Town Red]

what is amazing is that Hamilton only makes 380,000...still a rook but amazing none the less

[jnwohio]

28 million would not go along way when you have to also pick up an outfielder to replace dunns offense, which would probably end up costing you more then 13 million. Adam Dunn is not overpriced, if we get an awesome trade offer for him then trade him, but to just trade him to save some money is dumb and its the reason this team hasnt won in a number of years.


It seems like our "small market" has no end of pundits whose best analytic tool is to set some arbitrary salary figure above which a player becomes unaffordable. Their solution is always to trade the guy just to free up the salary. What I find most amazing is that more often than not, these guys don't even try to offer any coherrent concrete plan about who the savings should be spent on to replace the lost capabilities.

[jimbo]

28 million would not go along way when you have to also pick up an outfielder to replace dunns offense, which would probably end up costing you more then 13 million.

Replacing Dunn's run production is irrelevant if the pitching on this team does not dramatically improve. We've had several seasons now of Dunn's run production coupled with poor pitching and it hasn't worked. During this decade, the Reds have been at the top of the league every year in offensive categories yet continue to lose because their pitching has been at the bottom of the league.


Adam Dunn is not overpriced, if we get an awesome trade offer for him then trade him, but to just trade him to save some money is dumb and its the reason this team hasnt won in a number of years.

I agree to an extent. I never said Dunn was overpriced, I think he is fairly paid when considering what the market is bringing for a player of his production. They should only trade him if they get a good return.

[AmarilloRed]

Where did you get 15 million for Dunn in 2009? I believe in 2008 he has a 13 million option, and then he has no contract in 2009. I suspect that 15 million is what you would expect would be required if we sign him to an extension. You did say this is what would happen if we picked up an option or if the player has a guaranteed salary; but Dunn is not guaranteed a salary by the Reds in 2009. I would appreciate it if you would let us know if that 15 million is what would be expected if we signed him to an extension by 2009, BLEEDS.

[Muggerd]

Dunn making 13 million to be the 4th or 5th best player on this team makes me sad.

[SMcGavin]

Where did you get 15 million for Dunn in 2009? I believe in 2008 he has a 13 million option, and then he has no contract in 2009. I suspect that 15 million is what you would expect would be required if we sign him to an extension. You did say this is what would happen if we picked up an option or if the player has a guaranteed salary; but Dunn is not guaranteed a salary by the Reds in 2009. I would appreciate it if you would let us know if that 15 million is what would be expected if we signed him to an extension by 2009, BLEEDS.

I'm pretty sure you are correct that BLEEDS is making an assumption on what a Dunn extension would take. His deal is over after 2008.

[I(heart)Freel]

Couple questions/comments:

One: from where did Brandon's .408 figure come from? I know it's a guess, but how educated? It's his first year in arbitration. I'm trying to determine how he'll be compared, but I would think he'd cost much more than .408 mill.

Two: I think the league minimum salary is .390 next year. That doesn't add up to too much, but wanted to at least correct that.

Three: I think Weathers will be up to 3.55 after his incentives are met, which I suspect they almost certainly will be.

Four: Isn't it true that while 6 of Junior's 12.5 salary is deferred, the Reds count the whole total against annual payroll?

Five: What should we estimate for Cantu for next year? He's also first-year arbitration eligible, I believe. But since he's been awful or in minors most of this year, I suspect maybe his will be darn close to the league min.

Six: I think Harang is 6.75 next year.

So...

The Phillips and Junior thing can GREATLY change the logic and conclusions of this thread.

I come up with 43.1 million in guaranteed contracts for 2008, accounting for 11 roster spots. If we pick up Dunn and Valentin's options, that's another 14.3.

That's 57.4 for 13 spots. Plus whatever Phillips will get in arbitration (which again I think will be more than your .408 guess). And Cantu and Belisle are arb eligible too, but I could guess pretty low for them I think.

Even if we assign league min to the other 9 spots, that's another 3.51, bringing us to a grand total OVER 60 million before arbitration cases. Could Phillips get 3-4 mill? First year arbitration, I don't know.

Suddenly, we don't have much to get that 4th starter and overhaul the bullpen.

I have long said on here that, while I'm not a Dunn-hater, I do advocate his trade for the payroll flexibility.

I think we could find a journeyman starter/innings eater for a decent price. But the bullpen help I think begins and ends with a closer. A real, legit, costly closer. Puts Weathers in the 8th. Slots the younger guys in less pressure roles.

Yes. Dunn produces. He's a good ball player. We take a step back without him. But I argue that we need his salary to address bigger concerns. We'll score less, but give up less runs in the bullpen.

Which I think equates to more wins.

[Muggerd]

Just ask yourselves this. Do you want to pay him the most on this team when there are 4 or 5 guys you would rather have bat with the game on the line. I for one dont. He is a oddity because no player has really been like him. He is a month long slump waiting to happen at any time and can not hit a left hander if it was thrown underhand to him.

[nmculbreth]

I would trade Adam Dunn - for Chad Cordero. Cordero's not a FA until 2009, and we might be able to sign him LT. Cordero also is making about $6M less than Dunn.

The problem is - as my other post shows - it's NOT an easy thing to do to replace Dunn's RUNS CREATED, unless you are DEDICATED to replacing him with a $10-11M FA LF-er - AND go out and get some REAL Pitching, that can MAKE A DIFFERENCE in our win total.

Not a simple thing - versus Keeping Dunn and going and getting some Pitching...

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Great breakdown. Like others have mentioned it appears that the club has the payroll flexibility to retain Dunn, the question is whether or not doing so would make sense.

Given the lack of viable OF prospects in AAA (well, except Jay Bruce) it would seem that any replacement would have to be obtained via free agency. I'm sure guys like Eric Byrnes, Aaron Rowand and Torii Hunter would fit well into Krivsky's pitching and defense mold but it's probably safe to assume that each would want a multi-year deal in the neighborhood of what Dunn is slated to make next year. IMHO when compared to those alternatives Dunn's $13 mil option looks pretty attractive.

Now for my own crazy proposal... how would you feel about declining Dunn's 2008 option and making a run at Andruw Jones? Given the horrid year there is some speculation that Jones might be best served by seeking a one year make-good contract and then trying his luck as a free agent after the 2008 season. By going that route the Reds would be able to replace Dunn's production with a RH bat and also significantly upgrade their defense. At the same time declining Dunn's option and offering arbitration would net the club two top fifty selections in next year's draft. Not only that but if Jones is able to turn it around he'd be attractive trade bait at next year's deadline (assuming the Reds are out of contention) and could net the Reds two more top fifty picks if he leaves after 2008.

[BLEEDS]

Where did you get 15 million for Dunn in 2009? I believe in 2008 he has a 13 million option, and then he has no contract in 2009. I suspect that 15 million is what you would expect would be required if we sign him to an extension. You did say this is what would happen if we picked up an option or if the player has a guaranteed salary; but Dunn is not guaranteed a salary by the Reds in 2009. I would appreciate it if you would let us know if that 15 million is what would be expected if we signed him to an extension by 2009, BLEEDS.
Yes, that is an assumption, based upon his speculated 5 yr $75M market value. I had that bolded and noted in my spreadsheet, but it didn't come over.

Thanks for making me clarify that!

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[BLEEDS]

Couple questions/comments:

One: from where did Brandon's .408 figure come from? I know it's a guess, but how educated? It's his first year in arbitration. I'm trying to determine how he'll be compared, but I would think he'd cost much more than .408 mill.
You are right, this is an unknowns



Two: I think the league minimum salary is .390 next year. That doesn't add up to too much, but wanted to at least correct that.

could be, maybe $100K at most?



Three: I think Weathers will be up to 3.55 after his incentives are met, which I suspect they almost certainly will be.
I put estimated. IF you have details regarding his incentives, I'd love to see them. I've seen $3M tossed around.



Four: Isn't it true that while 6 of Junior's 12.5 salary is deferred, the Reds count the whole total against annual payroll?
Debateable. ESPN put the number at $8.447M. The Reds can choose to put whatever they want for interest, etc, - but it's NOT the full $12.5. I've seen some people put it at $10.1M. I'm using ESPN's numbers - they come out pretty close to $70M total payroll for this year.




Five: What should we estimate for Cantu for next year? He's also first-year arbitration eligible, I believe. But since he's been awful or in minors most of this year, I suspect maybe his will be darn close to the league min.
I would agree. They will keep him in the minors.



Six: I think Harang is 6.75 next year.

That is correct, typo on my part.


So...

The Phillips and Junior thing can GREATLY change the logic and conclusions of this thread.

I come up with 43.1 million in guaranteed contracts for 2008, accounting for 11 roster spots. If we pick up Dunn and Valentin's options, that's another 14.3.

That's 57.4 for 13 spots. Plus whatever Phillips will get in arbitration (which again I think will be more than your .408 guess). And Cantu and Belisle are arb eligible too, but I could guess pretty low for them I think.

Even if we assign league min to the other 9 spots, that's another 3.51, bringing us to a grand total OVER 60 million before arbitration cases. Could Phillips get 3-4 mill? First year arbitration, I don't know.

I agree, we won't know. Might sign him to a 4 yr $10M deal, who knows.

For now, my numbers are at ~$56M WITH Dunn...

I'd still give us $15-20M to spend in FA. Even with your increases, it's always been my Contention that the Reds COULD afford to spend $80M IFF they wanted to win - you'd be surprised how FEW butts in seats it would take to make up $5M... Winning puts butts in seats.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[AmarilloRed]

Homer would have to have a strong spring training to make the team in 2008. He has struggled in Louisville lately.