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HotCorner
07-30-2007, 08:09 AM
Found this on C Trent's blog this morning ...



Also, yeah, I've heard the rumors about Griffey being traded to Seattle. I'm not saying it won't happen, but I am saying it hasn't. Even though I don't think it will.


Anyone hear anything else on this?

smith288
07-30-2007, 08:23 AM
"I heard Griffey will be traded to Oz for a couple of munchcens. Im not saying it won't happen but im saying it hasn't....I don't think itll happen..."

Sometimes i think some of htese guys throw crap up on the wall and see what sticks.

M2
07-30-2007, 09:05 AM
No team needs Jr. more than the Mariners. No city would welcome him more than Seattle.

If Jr. gets dealt, that's where he's going.

Roy Tucker
07-30-2007, 09:18 AM
C Trent's comment was worded funny enough for it to be true.

RFS62
07-30-2007, 09:24 AM
Gallagher's head would explode.

Dom Heffner
07-30-2007, 09:25 AM
Griffey is not their savior.

mbgrayson
07-30-2007, 09:33 AM
Well, I am a Mariners fan as well as being a Reds fan. I was at the game on June 24th when Jr. hit two home runs, and the fans gave him a standing ovation. At the end of the game, Ken waved his cap at the fans and acknowledged his appreciation for them. Many Mariners fans would love to have him back.

That being said, the Mariners probably do not need him to put people in the seats. Their average attendance is already up over last year (31,725 so far in 2007; 30,626 in 2006) but it used to be higher. Their average attendance was 43,300 in 2001, and 43,739 in 2002, and 40,351 in 2003, and 36, 305 in 2004. Of course their highest years since Safeco Field opened in 1999 have been the years they won the most games.

The Mariners have two of the best outfield prospects in the game waiting in AAA Tacoma.

Adam Jones has a 2007 line of .317/.385/.587 for an OPS of .972 with 24 Home runs.
Wladimir Balentien has a line of .306/. 379/.554 for an OPS of .933 with 23 Home runs.

The Mariners current outfield is Jose Guillen in right, Ichiro in center, and Raul Ibanez in left. Jose Vidro is their main DH. Mariners fans are already mad that Jones hasn't been called up to Seattle.

Why would the Mariners want to add Juniors salary and delay these two big bats MLB debut? Well, Junior is certainly the more proven MLB commodity, and will boost attendance. But many in the Mariners more knowledgeable fan base don’t want them to acquire any outside outfield help.

From U.S.S. Mariner (http://ussmariner.com/)yesterday: “The only thing this team needs less than a new right-handed reliever is a new center fielder.”

Chip R
07-30-2007, 09:48 AM
That being said, the Mariners probably do not need him to put people in the seats. Their average attendance is already up over last year (31,725 so far in 2007; 30,626 in 2006) but it used to be higher. Their average attendance was 43,300 in 2001, and 43,739 in 2002, and 40,351 in 2003, and 36, 305 in 2004. Of course their highest years since Safeco Field opened in 1999 have been the years they won the most games.

The Mariners have two of the best outfield prospects in the game waiting in AAA Tacoma.

Adam Jones has a 2007 line of .317/.385/.587 for an OPS of .972 with 24 Home runs.
Wladimir Balentien has a line of .306/. 379/.554 for an OPS of .933 with 23 Home runs.

The Mariners current outfield is Jose Guillen in right, Ichiro in center, and Raul Ibanez in left. Jose Vidro is their main DH. Mariners fans are already mad that Jones hasn't been called up to Seattle.

Why would the Mariners want to add Juniors salary and delay these two big bats MLB debut? Well, Junior is certainly the more proven MLB commodity, and will boost attendance. But many in the Mariners more knowledgeable fan base don’t want them to acquire any outside outfield help.

From U.S.S. Mariner (http://ussmariner.com/)yesterday: “The only thing this team needs less than a new right-handed reliever is a new center fielder.”


I know a lot of people here would like to have Guillen back. ;)

Unassisted
07-30-2007, 09:57 AM
I thought Griffey's interest was said to be only in a trade that would move him closer to his ailing parents. Since he has veto rights, it seems wholly implausible that any of the above reasons would outweigh that and lead him to sign off on a trade that takes him 3 timezones farther away from them.

MartyFan
07-30-2007, 10:09 AM
I think it would be a GREAT story for Junior to go back to the M's...but I don't think it is going to happen.

Junior isn't going anywhere...the Reds have invested as much money in him as they have (yes even with home town discount) and now he is finally physically able to produce and nearing 600 HR's...the Reds would have to get back SO MUCH to give up the marketing and ticket revenue from this..Because of the milestone the asking price would be INCREDIBLY STEEP...Junior isn't going anywhere.

Maybe Dunn will be going someplace...but Junior isn't until after he hits 600

M2
07-30-2007, 10:23 AM
That being said, the Mariners probably do not need him to put people in the seats. Their average attendance is already up over last year (31,725 so far in 2007; 30,626 in 2006) but it used to be higher. Their average attendance was 43,300 in 2001, and 43,739 in 2002, and 40,351 in 2003, and 36, 305 in 2004. Of course their highest years since Safeco Field opened in 1999 have been the years they won the most games.

So that's more than 10,000 fans a game the team could draw. That's a lot of seats in search of fannies. Jr. would surely help cure that problem.


The Mariners have two of the best outfield prospects in the game waiting in AAA Tacoma.

Adam Jones has a 2007 line of .317/.385/.587 for an OPS of .972 with 24 Home runs.
Wladimir Balentien has a line of .306/. 379/.554 for an OPS of .933 with 23 Home runs.

The Mariners current outfield is Jose Guillen in right, Ichiro in center, and Raul Ibanez in left. Jose Vidro is their main DH. Mariners fans are already mad that Jones hasn't been called up to Seattle.

Why would the Mariners want to add Juniors salary and delay these two big bats MLB debut? Well, Junior is certainly the more proven MLB commodity, and will boost attendance. But many in the Mariners more knowledgeable fan base don’t want them to acquire any outside outfield help.

From U.S.S. Mariner (http://ussmariner.com/)yesterday: “The only thing this team needs less than a new right-handed reliever is a new center fielder.”

Well, Jr. wouldn't be a CF. The Mariners decidedly lack power, particularly from LF and DH. If the franchise wants to win something this year or next, Jones and Balentien probably aren't the answer. Jones seems to be the anointed star of the duo, so if the Mariners could build an OF/DH mix around Ichiro/Guillen/Jones/Jr. that would probably be the best mix of immediate and long-term concerns.

missionhockey21
07-30-2007, 10:34 AM
Also, yeah, I've heard the rumors about Griffey being traded to Seattle. I'm not saying it won't happen, but I am saying it hasn't. Even though I don't think it will.

Hey guys I might be going on a date tonight with Jessica Biel, I am not saying it won't happen.... I just don't think it will.

(Honestly, I sometimes think writers posted obscure little tidbits like this to get people to their blogs.)

flyer85
07-30-2007, 10:37 AM
from BP on Friday (John Perrotto)


The Reds have decided not to trade center fielder Ken Griffey Jr., while no team has been willing to meet their high asking price for left fielder Adam Dunn.

lollipopcurve
07-30-2007, 10:40 AM
Seattle needs LH power. For example, if they want to beat the Angels head-to-head, they're going to have to be able to score against a rotation that likely has 4 righthanders -- Weaver, Lackey, Escobar and Santana/Colon/Adenhart and a nasty RH bullpen including Moseley, Speier, Shields and K-Rod. Right now their LH bats are Vidro, Ibanez and Broussard. Jones and Balentien are righthanded. I think they get a solid offensive boost by putting Jr in right fulltime and platooning Guillen and Ibanez in left and Sexson and Broussard at first. Vidro can stay at DH.

mbgrayson
07-30-2007, 10:55 AM
So that's more than 10,000 fans a game the team could draw. That's a lot of seats in search of fannies. Jr. would surely help cure that problem.

I think Griffey clearly adds attendance there. Still, with the M's still in the race in August for the first time in several years, it is going up already. For the just ended 4 game series against the A's, who are back a ways behind the Ms, they pulled 34 k, 37 k, 41 k, and 41 k. The weekend games were sell outs. Not sure that Jr. would add many more on those games.



Well, Jr. wouldn't be a CF. The Mariners decidedly lack power, particularly from LF and DH. If the franchise wants to win something this year or next, Jones and Balentien probably aren't the answer. Jones seems to be the anointed star of the duo, so if the Mariners could build an OF/DH mix around Ichiro/Guillen/Jones/Jr. that would probably be the best mix of immediate and long-term concerns.

I agree with that mostly. Raul Ibanez has been a real disappointment his year so far. Vidro has a decent average and OBP, but also no power.

However, to get Jr., the Ms will have to give up something fairly good, add salary, and push back a minor leaguer's development. We shall see....maybe they would do it....

JaxRed
07-30-2007, 10:59 AM
Hey guys I might be going on a date tonight with Jessica Biel, I am not saying it won't happen.... I just don't think it will.




Actually Jessica has categorically denied this.....

Chip R
07-30-2007, 11:05 AM
I think they get a solid offensive boost by putting Jr in right fulltime and platooning Guillen and Ibanez in left


That'll go over well with Guillen. :help:

jojo
07-30-2007, 11:16 AM
So that's more than 10,000 fans a game the team could draw. That's a lot of seats in search of fannies. Jr. would surely help cure that problem.

I don't think attendance for the feel good weekend of the summer is a good barometer for the impact that Jr would have on attendance in Safeco. My guess is Jr might have a slight effect, but his impact wouldn't come close to the impact of making the playoffs. Jr really isn't the silver bullet needed for that to happen though.


Well, Jr. wouldn't be a CF. The Mariners decidedly lack power, particularly from LF and DH. If the franchise wants to win something this year or next, Jones and Balentien probably aren't the answer. Jones seems to be the anointed star of the duo, so if the Mariners could build an OF/DH mix around Ichiro/Guillen/Jones/Jr. that would probably be the best mix of immediate and long-term concerns.

Jones actually absolutely is the answer. He should play left starting yesterday. Then simply pull an Earl Weaver and platoon Ibanez/Guillen and Sexson/Broussard while mixing in Vidro when he's not playing cards with Bloomquist on the bench. Not only would the defense be dramatically upgraded but the offense would be as well because Guillen would'nt be getting murdered by righties (.247/.314/.367) and Ibanez wouldn't be getting schooled by lefties (.245 /.263/.300).

The Ms have NO need for position players in trade. They could significantly improve their lineup daily by simply pulling their head out of their arse.

The Ms DO need a quality starter though if they want to be more than pretenders for the playoff chase.

As for Wlad Balentien, he's almost certainly going to be traded before next spring training. Clement very well could go too. Unfortunately the Reds and Ms don't really match as trading partners unless the Reds made Arroyo available.

jojo
07-30-2007, 11:20 AM
Seattle needs LH power. For example, if they want to beat the Angels head-to-head, they're going to have to be able to score against a rotation that likely has 4 righthanders -- Weaver, Lackey, Escobar and Santana/Colon/Adenhart and a nasty RH bullpen including Moseley, Speier, Shields and K-Rod. Right now their LH bats are Vidro, Ibanez and Broussard. Jones and Balentien are righthanded. I think they get a solid offensive boost by putting Jr in right fulltime and platooning Guillen and Ibanez in left and Sexson and Broussard at first. Vidro can stay at DH.

Ibanez and Guillen in Safeco's left is a defensive trainwreck that would be an anchor rather than stiff wind in the sails.

I think the Ms get a much greater boost by maximizing their defense in left with Jones, platooning Ibanez and Guillen in right and saving their trading chips for something they need much more----another starter.

missionhockey21
07-30-2007, 11:29 AM
Actually Jessica has categorically denied this.....
Denied that it won't be happening, meaning it will? I like the sound of that.

But seriously, I think Griffey to the Mariners is something we're just bound to hear as long as he has his legs under him and he's healthy. If this was five years ago and the injury concerns for Griffey were not as high as they are now, I could see them wanting to bring the prodigal son back to the franchise, but if they are willing to add a contract in that neighborhood... I think they would much rather go with a more dependable route just based off what I've gathered. Nonetheless, with a top prospect like Jones, it would be a hell of a marketing move to have Griffey pass on the torch so to speak while teaching him all he knows.

Of course I am greedy and I want to see Griffey hit 600 in Cincy and make a go for 700.

lollipopcurve
07-30-2007, 11:31 AM
I think the Ms get a much greater boost by maximizing their defense in left with Jones, platooning Ibanez and Guillen in right and saving their trading chips for something they need much more----another starter.

Theoretically. But is that starter available? Arroyo is going nowhere, and according to rumors there are no above-average arms available. Could be that the Ms would take Griffey and Lohse?

Can Clement catch in the majors?

M2
07-30-2007, 11:35 AM
Jones actually absolutely is the answer. He should play left starting yesterday. Then simply pull an Earl Weaver and platoon Ibanez/Guillen and Sexson/Broussard while mixing in Vidro when he's not playing cards with Bloomquist on the bench. Not only would the defense be dramatically upgraded but the offense would be as well because Guillen would'nt be getting murdered by righties (.247/.314/.367) and Ibanez wouldn't be getting schooled by lefties (.245 /.263/.300).

The Ms have NO need for position players in trade. They could significantly improve their lineup daily by simply pulling their head out of their arse.

The Ms DO need a quality starter though if they want to be more than pretenders for the playoff chase.

As for Wlad Balentien, he's almost certainly going to be traded before next spring training. Clement very well could go too. Unfortunately the Reds and Ms don't really match as trading partners unless the Reds made Arroyo available.

Is Jones going to be appreciably better than a Delmon Young or Carlos Quentin at this juncture? I agree that he could probably do better than Ibanez, but that's not really saying anything. He's 22. He's probably not going to light the league on fire out of the gate.

You're absolutely right the M's need a quality starting pitcher more than they need a bat, but I don't know of a single quality starting pitcher on the current market. Plus, the M's do still need a big bat. Jones probably isn't going to be that guy this season (though they'd be well-served to find that out on the field). My take is if the M's added Jr. and called up Jones, they might have enough of an offense to overcome that overcome that pitching.

Jose Vidro and Raul Ibanez would be a lot better on the bench.

Anyway, that team has more than a single need. It's played over its head this season and it probably needs to make an aggressive move or two in order to steal a spot in the playoffs. I'm not sure this is anything more than a break in the storm clouds for that franchise, so why not go for it?

jojo
07-30-2007, 01:55 PM
Is Jones going to be appreciably better than a Delmon Young or Carlos Quentin at this juncture? I agree that he could probably do better than Ibanez, but that's not really saying anything. He's 22. He's probably not going to light the league on fire out of the gate.

You're absolutely right the M's need a quality starting pitcher more than they need a bat, but I don't know of a single quality starting pitcher on the current market. Plus, the M's do still need a big bat. Jones probably isn't going to be that guy this season (though they'd be well-served to find that out on the field). My take is if the M's added Jr. and called up Jones, they might have enough of an offense to overcome that overcome that pitching.

Jose Vidro and Raul Ibanez would be a lot better on the bench.

Anyway, that team has more than a single need. It's played over its head this season and it probably needs to make an aggressive move or two in order to steal a spot in the playoffs. I'm not sure this is anything more than a break in the storm clouds for that franchise, so why not go for it?

Concerning the pitching, it's very likely that an upgrade isn't possible this season. That's no reason to spend chips like Jones, Wlad and Clement on things that they could accomplish without going shopping. This offseason it may very well be possible to use those chips to get an upgrade their rotation.

The Ms absolutely DO NOT need to trade for another bat. Between the significant defensive upgrade in Safeco's leftfield (think of it as CF with an asterisk relative to it's importance given the effect of the Puget Sound) and the boost by actually using Ibanez/Guillen and Co in a way that maximizes their production while limiting their weaknesses, there is no need to add a bat.

Jr in RF (.272 /.386/.526) really isn't an upgrade over a platoon of Ibanez/Guillen in right (lefty: .396/.476/.670; righty: .259/.326/.436). Jr certainly wouldn't be worth the cost of his acquisition when the Ms could essentially get similar production by simply being smarter about how they use the guys they already have. This wouldn't require taking on any salary and more importantly it wouldn't cost talent. There would be no risk that Jr would get hurt and while the RF defense would still suck, adding Jr wouldn't exactly help in that regard anyway.

Concerning Jones, his glove alone represents a pretty substantial upgrade over Ibanez who is now grading out lower than Dunn defensively. Concerning Jones' bat, here is what Pecota thought Jones could be expected to do in the majors this season before factoring in his breakout summer in AAA: .262/.319/.431. That line would already be a little better than the current AL average for LF (.267/.328/.414). It's probably reasonable to think Jones could do something like .275/.330/.440 for the Ms. That by the way would also represent a significant upgrade offensively over their current situation. Together with his glove, and the newfound ability to platoon other guys, just calling up Jones could have a significant impact on the Ms.

The Ms really do have the answers they need in house. And while nothing probably substitutes for a bonified quality starter, they can go a long way towards upgrading the pitching by simply making they outfield behind them a much tougher place to get a hit.

Once again, this could all be done in house without giving up anything. I know it's not as sexy as bringing in someone else's cool toy, but it's ALOT smarter.

Well anyway, that's how I tend to think through issues related to roster construction.

flyer85
07-30-2007, 01:57 PM
Offensively, the Ms really do have the answers they need in house. And defensively, they can go a long way towards upgrading the pitching by simply making they outfield behind them a much tougher place to get a hit.Seeing as they can't seem to figure that out and added a washed up and expensive Vidro as a DH in the off-season. Who knows what they will do? Just shows you can be clueless and still be a major league GM.

jojo
07-30-2007, 02:05 PM
Seeing as they can't seem to figure that out and added a washed up and expensive Vidro as a DH in the off-season. Who knows what they will do? Just shows you can be clueless and still be a major league GM.

If there has ever been a GM of a team I followed that I'd beg to stand pat at the trade deadline, it would be Bavasi.....

flyer85
07-30-2007, 02:08 PM
If there has ever been a GM of a team I followed that I'd beg to stand pat at the trade deadline, it would be Bavasi.....nepotism and inbreeding are wonderful things.

M2
07-30-2007, 02:59 PM
Concerning the pitching, it's very likely that an upgrade isn't possible this season. That's no reason to spend chips like Jones, Wlad and Clement on things that they could accomplish without going shopping. This offseason it may very well be possible to use those chips to get an upgrade their rotation.

The Ms absolutely DO NOT need to trade for another bat. Between the significant defensive upgrade in Safeco's leftfield (think of it as CF with an asterisk relative to it's importance given the effect of the Puget Sound) and the boost by actually using Ibanez/Guillen and Co in a way that maximizes their production while limiting their weaknesses, there is no need to add a bat.

Jr in RF (.272 /.386/.526) really isn't an upgrade over a platoon of Ibanez/Guillen in right (lefty: .396/.476/.670; righty: .259/.326/.436). Jr certainly wouldn't be worth the cost of his acquisition when the Ms could essentially get similar production by simply being smarter about how they use the guys they already have. This wouldn't require taking on any salary and more importantly it wouldn't cost talent. There would be no risk that Jr would get hurt and while the RF defense would still suck, adding Jr wouldn't exactly help in that regard anyway.

Concerning Jones, his glove alone represents a pretty substantial upgrade over Ibanez who is now grading out lower than Dunn defensively. Concerning Jones' bat, here is what Pecota thought Jones could be expected to do in the majors this season before factoring in his breakout summer in AAA: .262/.319/.431. That line would already be a little better than the current AL average for LF (.267/.328/.414). It's probably reasonable to think Jones could do something like .275/.330/.440 for the Ms. That by the way would also represent a significant upgrade offensively over their current situation. Together with his glove, and the newfound ability to platoon other guys, just calling up Jones could have a significant impact on the Ms.

The Ms really do have the answers they need in house. And while nothing probably substitutes for a bonified quality starter, they can go a long way towards upgrading the pitching by simply making they outfield behind them a much tougher place to get a hit.

Once again, this could all be done in house without giving up anything. I know it's not as sexy as bringing in someone else's cool toy, but it's ALOT smarter.

Well anyway, that's how I tend to think through issues related to roster construction.

Sorry, but the Mariners do not have something similar to a 130 OPS+ bat languishing on the bench or in the minors. I agree they can improve their production by doing some shuffling, but at the plate Jr. is orders of magnitude above what Jones is going to deliver or what you're likely to get from shuffling the lesser lights on the roster. You'll have to explain to me how a 100 point OPS gap (roughly, with park adjustments) between Jr. and Guillen/Ibanez isn't a massive upgrade. As for the defense, there's never been a LF in history who could turn a bad defense into a good one and there never will be.

The Mariners are not a good offensive team, middle of the road and no better. The EQA list ranks them #1 in actual runs scored above estimated runs scored (+25). When/if that normalizes that club will be in trouble.

As for what's smart, I doubt either of us consider the Mariners to be a dangerous ballclub or one on the precipice of a big half decade. So here they are, the most unlikely belle at the ball in 2007. I recommend they dance for all they're worth.

flyer85
07-30-2007, 03:03 PM
As for what's smart, I doubt either of us consider the Mariners to be a dangerous ballclub or one on the precipice of a big half decade. So here they are, the most unlikely belle at the ball in 2007. I recommend they dance for all they're worth.Bavasi has shown himself to be a do-nothing GM around the trade deadline.

Jpup
07-30-2007, 03:03 PM
Bavasi has shown himself to be a do-nothing GM around the trade deadline.

Krivsky seems to be as well.

jojo
07-30-2007, 03:41 PM
Sorry, but the Mariners do not have something similar to a 130 OPS+ bat languishing on the bench or in the minors. I agree they can improve their production by doing some shuffling, but at the plate Jr. is orders of magnitude above what Jones is going to deliver or what you're likely to get from shuffling the lesser lights on the roster. You'll have to explain to me how a 100 point OPS gap (roughly, with park adjustments) between Jr. and Guillen/Ibanez isn't a massive upgrade. As for the defense, there's never been a LF in history who could turn a bad defense into a good one and there never will be.

You're completely ignoring the whole argument. A platoon of Guillen/Ibanez in right roughly IS the same thing as Jr. Basically combining the platoon numbers for the two produces a line of .296/.367/.500. Jr's line looks like this: .272/.386/.526. Would a package of something like Wlad/Clement and maybe Fieierbrand (and I'm sure Krivsky would start by asking for more) really by worth .040 SLG over the final 60 games (and keep in mind that these aren't even park adjusted which would make that .040 shrink)? Also, keep in mind that by making this trade there is an associated opportunity cost beyond the value of controlling 6yrs of their prospects. Making the trade means there is no upgrade in left field which probably completely wipes out the .040 and then some.

Calling Jones up is almost certainly an upgrade offensively for them in left while he absolutely is a defensive upgrade at a key position in Safeco.

Platooning Broussard/Sexson also improves the offense significantly.

They have zero need for Griffey. They can come out ahead in '07 by by simply getting smart about the personnel they already have than if they traded for Griffey.


As for what's smart, I doubt either of us consider the Mariners to be a dangerous ball club or one on the precipice of a big half decade. So here they are, the most unlikely belle at the ball in 2007. I recommend they dance for all they're worth.

I also recommend they dance for all they're worth which fortunately for them means not giving away talent for shiny things but rather simply taking better care of their own toys.

The Ms are in a position to get the most out of their current dance while preserving their best chance to get another invite.

M2
07-30-2007, 04:47 PM
You're completely ignoring the whole argument. A platoon of Guillen/Ibanez in right roughly IS the same thing as Jr. Basically combining the platoon numbers for the two produces a line of .296/.367/.500. Jr's line looks like this: .272/.386/.526.

Is Jose Guillen going to continue to OPS 350 points above his career average against LHPs? I kind of doubt that. And even with that sample size fluke, Jr.'s still got a 190 point OPS differential over Ibanez vs. RHPs. Call me crazy, but I think that would be a significant net gain.

Beyond that, 45 points of OPS is roughly a full standard deviation. So if that's all Jr. delivered (and even with a park adjustment he should be worth double it), you're talking about a forklift upgrade.


Would a package of something like Wlad/Clement and maybe Fieierbrand (and I'm sure Krivsky would start by asking for more) really by worth .040 SLG over the final 60 games (and keep in mind that these aren't even park adjusted which would make that .040 shrink)? Also, keep in mind that by making this trade there is an associated opportunity cost beyond the value of controlling 6yrs of their prospects. Making the trade means there is no upgrade in left field which probably completely wipes out the .040 and then some.

Yeah, nothing gets the fan juices flowing like passing up a big bat who just happens to be the best and most beloved player in your franchise's history in order to keep some kid who may or may not someday be a good player. The Mariners aren't such great shakes. They find themselves in the unlikely position of being able to make the playoffs despite that. Nobody's going to remember this season fondly if they fade into oblivion and then play to their level in the coming seasons. They've been a big market franchise in the recent past. I suggest they act like one.

Plus, they could trade for Jr. and call up Jones if they wanted, making Guillen/Ibanez the DH. No one's stopping them from doing that.


Calling Jones up is almost certainly an upgrade offensively for them in left while he absolutely is a defensive upgrade at a key position in Safeco.

In what universe is LF a key defensive position? Seriously. When did that happen? Because I totally never got that memo.


Platooning Broussard/Sexson also improves the offense significantly.

It might help, though that is Ben Broussard you're talking about. The magic could wear off of if you rub that lamp too much.


They have zero need for Griffey. They can come out ahead in '07 by by simply getting smart about the personnel they already have than if they traded for Griffey.

You keep saying it, but I keep looking at all those mediocre bats and a kid who almost assuredly is going to struggle during his first callup and can't imagine how a guy with a 130 OPS+ wouldn't be a major boon to that team.


I also recommend they dance for all they're worth which fortunately for them means not giving away talent for shiny things but rather simply taking better care of their own toys.

Let me unmix that metaphor for you. Kids in the minors are the shiny things/toys. You had it half right.


The Ms are in a position to get the most out of their current dance while preserving their best chance to get another invite.

Yes, let's not reach for the brass ring. Let's compete and maybe if we don't compete very hard we'll be able to do more competing in the future. How splendid that might be.

Yuck.

Mario-Rijo
07-30-2007, 05:25 PM
I'm not so sure it would take a Balentein or a Clement. That organization has a lot of talent at the AAA level and I'm sure it could get done for less. Of course we would love to have either/both of them. Feieraband is Claussen light, which means no thanks, of course he is still only 21 so he may yet get a few more miles of velocity but his upside may very well be limited.

Heck the Reds may have some interest in a Mike Morse/Rob Johnson package. Maybe toss in a guy like Oswaldo Navarro and presto deal done!

Griffey will fill up that stadium and 10,000 more seats means you aren't taking on much salary in the end.

KronoRed
07-30-2007, 05:59 PM
The JR will fill the stadium argument is a good one, it's also the reason JR won't be traded

jojo
07-30-2007, 07:21 PM
Is Jose Guillen going to continue to OPS 350 points above his career average against LHPs? I kind of doubt that. And even with that sample size fluke, Jr.'s still got a 190 point OPS differential over Ibanez vs. RHPs. Call me crazy, but I think that would be a significant net gain.

Beyond that, 45 points of OPS is roughly a full standard deviation. So if that's all Jr. delivered (and even with a park adjustment he should be worth double it), you're talking about a forklift upgrade.

Why wouldn't Guillen keep mashing lefties? We all said Aurilia couldn't sustain it last year too.

That 45 pts of OPS advantage for Jr translates into roughly a difference of 5 RC over the remaining 60 games assuming Jr's July swoon isn't representative of his second half. I think 5 runs neither represents a forklift upgrade nor would it justify the talent necesary to acquire Jr. Besides, like mentioned earlier, getting Jr also prevents the upgrade represented by Jones in left. Overall trading Jr would most likely be a downgrade versus the in house options for the Ms while costing the Ms a significant amount of talent that could impact their long term.


Yeah, nothing gets the fan juices flowing like passing up a big bat who just happens to be the best and most beloved player in your franchise's history in order to keep some kid who may or may not someday be a good player. The Mariners aren't such great shakes. They find themselves in the unlikely position of being able to make the playoffs despite that. Nobody's going to remember this season fondly if they fade into oblivion and then play to their level in the coming seasons. They've been a big market franchise in the recent past. I suggest they act like one.

There are a ton of Ms fans who wouldn't view the acquisition of Jr as representing what you're suggesting it would. BTW, Jones and Balentien both are thought to be major league ready with Clement probably being ready next season. We're not talking about prospects that are years away.

BTW the Ms are acting like a big market franchise given a payroll of roughly $110M.


Plus, they could trade for Jr. and call up Jones if they wanted, making Guillen/Ibanez the DH. No one's stopping them from doing that.

Unless it took Jones to get Jr. Also, the Ms don't view Guillen as a DH because they think he still has defensive value. Guillen certainly doesn't view himself as a DH either.


In what universe is LF a key defensive position? Seriously. When did that happen? Because I totally never got that memo.

Safeco's leftfield is a unique defensive environment. It's not a place where a poor glove can be hiddden. It's a place where the consequences of a poor glove get magnified. Don't wait for the memo. Watch some games played there and see for yourself.


You keep saying it, but I keep looking at all those mediocre bats and a kid who almost assuredly is going to struggle during his first callup and can't imagine how a guy with a 130 OPS+ wouldn't be a major boon to that team.

Let me unmix that metaphor for you. Kids in the minors are the shiny things/toys. You had it half right.

Except it wouldn't be Jone's first call up. There are alot of memos you're not getting.


Yes, let's not reach for the brass ring. Let's compete and maybe if we don't compete very hard we'll be able to do more competing in the future. How splendid that might be.

Yuck.

Calling up Jones and platooning Guillen/Ibanez and Sexson/Broussard would be the smart AND ballsy thing to do if the Ms were going for the ring. Trading away young talent for Jr isn't the upgrade it seems on the surface and would actually be the weenie way to go about competing that's neither imaginative nor enlightened.

Here's a personal bias of mine that really colors alot of my opinions: A FO making smart moves that improve the team is a clear sign of a team going for a ring. A FO that throws talent and money around chasing production before it actually maximizes it's own roster is a clear sign of a FO that probably never will compete for a ring.

jojo
07-30-2007, 07:26 PM
I'm not so sure it would take a Balentein or a Clement. That organization has a lot of talent at the AAA level and I'm sure it could get done for less. Of course we would love to have either/both of them. Feieraband is Claussen light, which means no thanks, of course he is still only 21 so he may yet get a few more miles of velocity but his upside may very well be limited.

Heck the Reds may have some interest in a Mike Morse/Rob Johnson package. Maybe toss in a guy like Oswaldo Navarro and presto deal done!

Griffey will fill up that stadium and 10,000 more seats means you aren't taking on much salary in the end.

Griffey doesn't fill up GABP. Really the effect that Jr would have on attendance at Safeco is being dramatically overstated. Jr's homecoming had been marketed heavily since January. The Ms would not expect to see Jr draw an additional 10,000 in ordinary circumstances.

pedro
07-30-2007, 07:35 PM
Jojo, just curious, are you from Seattle, or just a fan of the Mariners? Ever been there?

jojo
07-30-2007, 07:40 PM
Jojo, just curious, are you from Seattle, or just a fan of the Mariners? Ever been there?

I lived a glorious 4+ years in the pacific northwest (well, really just a glorious 6+ months....the rest of the time it rained).

:D

pedro
07-30-2007, 07:45 PM
I lived a glorious 4+ years in the pacific northwest (well, really just a glorious 6+ months....the rest of the time it rained).

:D

Seattle is fabulous when the weather's good. It's just nice the other 340 days a year. ;)

We went up there for the Reds series and it was freezing. Thankfully Portland has a little better climate than Seattle. I'm not sure I could take the weather up there. (or the traffic)

Mario-Rijo
07-30-2007, 07:45 PM
Griffey doesn't fill up GABP. Really the effect that Jr would have on attendance at Safeco is being dramatically overstated. Jr's homecoming had been marketed heavily since January. The Ms would not expect to see Jr draw an additional 10,000 in ordinary circumstances.

Well perhaps it is being overstated, maybe it's not that far off either. Griffey would help fill up GABP if we were winning, and seeing as how we are not we are still avg. pretty solid attendance thanks in large part to Griffey. My guess is he is worth 6-8 thousand a night. If we were winning w/ Griffey you couldn't get a seat in that place.

jojo
07-30-2007, 07:47 PM
Seattle is fabulous when the weather's good. It's just nice the other 340 days a year. ;)

We went up there for the Reds series and it was freezing. Thankfully Portland has a little better climate than Seattle. I'm not sure I could take the weather up there. (or the traffic)

I've spent alot of time in the Willamette valley too.....it's a great place to be during the spring and summer... maybe one of my favorite places and the people are great too....

mbgrayson
07-30-2007, 07:58 PM
Well perhaps it is being overstated, maybe it's not that far off either. Griffey would help fill up GABP if we were winning, and seeing as how we are not we are still avg. pretty solid attendance thanks in large part to Griffey. My guess is he is worth 6-8 thousand a night. If we were winning w/ Griffey you couldn't get a seat in that place.

Oh come on! Last year the Reds were in first place into June. and within a few games of making the playoffs until the final weekend. Our per game average attendance was 26,351. Griffey was playing until he got hurt....This year's average is about the same; 26,702.

I am also a M's fan; there would be an intial boost in attendance with Junior. Then a small gain. But, like I said earlier, they will sell more seats just by winning.

Mario-Rijo
07-30-2007, 08:10 PM
Oh come on! Last year the Reds were in first place into June. and within a few games of making the playoffs until the final weekend. Our per game average attendance was 26,351. Griffey was playing until he got hurt....This year's average is about the same; 26,702.

I am also a M's fan; there would be an intial boost in attendance with Junior. Then a small gain. But, like I said earlier, they will sell more seats just by winning.

And nobody was buying into the winning being anything more than smoke and mirrors. And you both may be right he may not help at all. But if Seattle is actually interested then they see a reason for him being there. And I for one am buying the hype on this one, of course it may still not get done. But I believe there is interest from Seattle.

M2
07-30-2007, 08:59 PM
Why wouldn't Guillen keep mashing lefties? We all said Aurilia couldn't sustain it last year too.

Because at some point his DNA will take over. He could do a perfectly respectable .900 OPS vs southpaws from here on out, but that 1.100+ OPS is a fluke and we both know it.


That 45 pts of OPS advantage for Jr translates into roughly a difference of 5 RC over the remaining 60 games assuming Jr's July swoon isn't representative of his second half. I think 5 runs neither represents a forklift upgrade nor would it justify the talent necesary to acquire Jr. Besides, like mentioned earlier, getting Jr also prevents the upgrade represented by Jones in left. Overall trading Jr would most likely be a downgrade versus the in house options for the Ms while costing the Ms a significant amount of talent that could impact their long term.

First off, I estimated that it was more likely Jr. would be a 100-point OPS bump, which would put him closer to a 10-RC difference for the rest of the season and that would be a big deal. And once again, a 10-RC hitting improvement for the rest of the season is the exact opposite of a downgrade vs. the house options. It is the very definition of an upgrade.

As for this "getting Jr also prevents the upgrade represented by Jones in left" invention of yours. You can keep saying it, but the Mariners could do both.


There are a ton of Ms fans who wouldn't view the acquisition of Jr as representing what you're suggesting it would. BTW, Jones and Balentien both are thought to be major league ready with Clement probably being ready next season. We're not talking about prospects that are years away.

Thought to be major league ready by whom? I chalk sentences like that up to things people say that don't really mean anything. Jones and Balentien are going to have a transition period. Pretty much every player coming out of AAA does, even the studs. The Arizona Diamondbacks are swimming in players like that - tipped for stardom, but taking some lumps.

And let's be honest, it would be an extreme minority grousing about trading a prospect for Jr., a number that would dwindle to almost zero if he put a hurt on the ball.


BTW the Ms are acting like a big market franchise given a payroll of roughly $110M.

It's not how much you spend so much as when you spend it. The Mariners spend like the nouveau riche.


Unless it took Jones to get Jr. Also, the Ms don't view Guillen as a DH because they think he still has defensive value. Guillen certainly doesn't view himself as a DH either.

Have they consulted directly with you on this? If not, I'd suggest that they are capable of forming the same opinion you have - that they've got corner OF problems and Jones could help that. They also might be of the opinion that while Jones could help in the field, he'd be making a lot of extra outs at the plate while adjusting to the majors, losing the team whole numbers on offensive production for decimal gains on defense.

I imagine Jose Guillen views himself as the second coming of Roberto Clemente. I wouldn't necessarily make my team a captive to his self image.


Safeco's leftfield is a unique defensive environment. It's not a place where a poor glove can be hiddden. It's a place where the consequences of a poor glove get magnified. Don't wait for the memo. Watch some games played there and see for yourself.

I've seen plenty of games at Safeco. It's not exactly a new ballpark. It wasn't so unique to keep Al Martin, Ruben Sierra and Raul Ibanez from plying their trade there (all awful defenders). Randy Winn's the only real plus defender the M's have deployed out there during the Safeco years. It's not that unique and quality defense out there isn't going to be a magic bullet for a team with bad pitching and mediocre offense.


Except it wouldn't be Jone's first call up. There are alot of memos you're not getting.

You're right. I'm sure his 76-PA from last season was all the apprenticeship he'll need for the majors. What could I have been thinking? Clearly he's seen and done it all.


Calling up Jones and platooning Guillen/Ibanez and Sexson/Broussard would be the smart AND ballsy thing to do if the Ms were going for the ring. Trading away young talent for Jr isn't the upgrade it seems on the surface and would actually be the weenie way to go about competing that's neither imaginative nor enlightened.

Yep, it's as easy as platooning a bunch of vets, hoping their career norms don't catch up to them and then calling up a kid who'll be an instant star. That's certainly imaginative. I imagine Mariners fans will be praising the ballsiness of it in September when the team is playing out the string of yet another fruitless campaign, fully aware that, like most great works of man, it will take future generations to appreciate the full magnitude of its genius.


Here's a personal bias of mine that really colors alot of my opinions: A FO making smart moves that improve the team is a clear sign of a team going for a ring. A FO that throws talent and money around chasing production before it actually maximizes it's own roster is a clear sign of a FO that probably never will compete for a ring.

A) The Mariners aren't swimming talent. They're overachieving. Massage the roster any way you wish and all it will accomplish is the club would have to overachieve slightly less to make the playoffs.

B) Spending blood and treasure on a big bat to bolster a flagging offense could very well be a smart move. Spending less and forever trying to leech blood from stones are not necessarily the hallmarks of intelligence. It's a make-due plan. Obviously every team should try to get the most out of what it has, but there comes a time where a GM's got to ask whether he's got enough of a team to make the postseason and the answer in Bill Bavasi's case is probably no. So what can he do to change that? I'm not saying it has to be a trade for Jr., but the value engineering cookbook isn't exactly chockfull of World Series winning recipes.

Team Clark
07-30-2007, 09:12 PM
I would not be surprised at all to see Jr. gone by tomorrow. I would be more surprised to see him stay if that makes any sense. The only hurdle is Junior wanting a contract extension to 2011. (Not at a discount either)

Mario-Rijo
07-30-2007, 09:23 PM
I would not be surprised at all to see Jr. gone by tomorrow. I would be more surprised to see him stay if that makes any sense. The only hurdle is Junior wanting a contract extension to 2011. (Not at a discount either)

This is what I mean. Hopefully we can help smooth that hurdle out somehow!

Team Clark
07-30-2007, 09:38 PM
This is what I mean. Hopefully we can help smooth that hurdle out somehow!

Everything revolves around $$$. I would suspect that is the main reason Dunn has not been moved. His agent probably does not want to get into an LTC with a team Dunner doesn't want to play for.

paulrichjr
07-30-2007, 09:54 PM
I would not be surprised at all to see Jr. gone by tomorrow. I would be more surprised to see him stay if that makes any sense. The only hurdle is Junior wanting a contract extension to 2011. (Not at a discount either)

Is this inside info or is this just a theory?

OnBaseMachine
07-30-2007, 10:00 PM
I was just reading that it was reported that the Mariners offered OF prospect Vladimir Balentien to the Royals for Octavio Dotel. If I were Krivsky I would jump in and offer Weathers for Balentien...I would even toss in a prospect to make the deal happen. Balentien has 30-35 HR power potential from the right side, which is something the Reds could use to break up the lefties.

jojo
07-30-2007, 11:07 PM
First off, I estimated that it was more likely Jr. would be a 100-point OPS bump, which would put him closer to a 10-RC difference for the rest of the season and that would be a big deal. And once again, a 10-RC hitting improvement for the rest of the season is the exact opposite of a downgrade vs. the house options. It is the very definition of an upgrade.

That frankly is an estimate that you're pulling out of your arse. Basically to estimate a 10 run difference, you have to assume the worst case for the platoon and the best case for Jr. Guillen might regress, he might not. Ibanez certainly has room for a hot streak. Jr had a GREAT first half of the season. That said, there isn't much reason to believe his second half will be carbon copy. It's most reasonable to assume a let down given his age and wear and tear and the fact that his first half surpassed most people's reasonable expectations. God willing he won't suffer an injury. A 100 pt bump in OPS not only seems optimistic, it's probably unlikely.


As for this "getting Jr also prevents the upgrade represented by Jones in left" invention of yours. You can keep saying it, but the Mariners could do both.

I'm not inventing anything. I'm basing my interpretation upon the culture of the Ms FO. If Jones is in left and Jr in right, there are two spots for Ibanez, Guillen, Broussard, Sexson and Vidro. Bavasi is fond of saying kids get managers fired. Assuming Bavasi doesn't want to get fired, Jones is low man on the totem pole in a log jam of veterans like that.

Your opinion simply isn't the most likely scenario based upon how Bavasi has traditionally acted.


Thought to be major league ready by whom? I chalk sentences like that up to things people say that don't really mean anything. Jones and Balentien are going to have a transition period. Pretty much every player coming out of AAA does, even the studs. The Arizona Diamondbacks are swimming in players like that - tipped for stardom, but taking some lumps.

I understand that not everyone on a Reds board will closely follow player development in the systems of other teams. That said, platitudes, demogogery and dogma shouldn't be mistaken for knowledge or insight.


And let's be honest, it would be an extreme minority grousing about trading a prospect for Jr., a number that would dwindle to almost zero if he put a hurt on the ball.

I guess it all depends on what cohort you're referencing. I know quite a few that would have a cow.


It's not how much you spend so much as when you spend it. The Mariners spend like the nouveau riche.

NO. It's how you spend it. It always has been and it always will be. Frankly, the Ms have spent like the old rich....very conservatively in the sense that they overpay for *proven*.


Have they consulted directly with you on this?

Of course they have. DUH.


If not, I'd suggest that they are capable of forming the same opinion you have - that they've got corner OF problems and Jones could help that. They also might be of the opinion that while Jones could help in the field, he'd be making a lot of extra outs at the plate while adjusting to the majors, losing the team whole numbers on offensive production for decimal gains on defense.

Once again, there is every reason to believe that Jones could be at least a league average bat in left field. His glove alone would be reason enough to stick him in left.

It's pure poppycock to suggest that it's a given that a top tier prospect who has proven himself ready will struggle out of the gate. At least, guys like Pence and Braun seem to suggest such a blanket statement really is an empty one concerning it's predictive power.



I've seen plenty of games at Safeco. It's not exactly a new ballpark. It wasn't so unique to keep Al Martin, Ruben Sierra and Raul Ibanez from plying their trade there (all awful defenders). Randy Winn's the only real plus defender the M's have deployed out there during the Safeco years. It's not that unique and quality defense out there isn't going to be a magic bullet for a team with bad pitching and mediocre offense.

The 2001-2002 versions of the Ms were perhaps some of the best defensive teams in recent history. They could afford to carry a Martin or Sierra in left. Even so neither player even got a majority of defensive innings in left either year.

The 2003 outfield alignment of the Ms is a perfect example that basically makes the case for Jones. Put a great defender in the largest leftfield in the AL where the Puget Sound causes balls in the air to hang and thus make them more catchable than in other parks and whooollaaaaa, team ERA plummets. To suggest that the size and environment of Safeco's left field doesn't make it unique is a bit absurd.


You're right. I'm sure his 76-PA from last season was all the apprenticeship he'll need for the majors. What could I have been thinking? Clearly he's seen and done it all.

Yep, it's as easy as platooning a bunch of vets, hoping their career norms don't catch up to them and then calling up a kid who'll be an instant star. That's certainly imaginative. I imagine Mariners fans will be praising the ballsiness of it in September when the team is playing out the string of yet another fruitless campaign, fully aware that, like most great works of man, it will take future generations to appreciate the full magnitude of its genius.

A) The Mariners aren't swimming talent. They're overachieving. Massage the roster any way you wish and all it will accomplish is the club would have to overachieve slightly less to make the playoffs.

B) Spending blood and treasure on a big bat to bolster a flagging offense could very well be a smart move. Spending less and forever trying to leech blood from stones are not necessarily the hallmarks of intelligence. It's a make-due plan. Obviously every team should try to get the most out of what it has, but there comes a time where a GM's got to ask whether he's got enough of a team to make the postseason and the answer in Bill Bavasi's case is probably no. So what can he do to change that? I'm not saying it has to be a trade for Jr., but the value engineering cookbook isn't exactly chockfull of World Series winning recipes.

That all basically assumes conclusions that frankly aren't givens and it's really just mischaracterizing my argument.

Nobody said Jones would be a superstar out of the gate. I've argued he'd be a league average bat who plays above average defense. I've argued to platoon veterans to magnify their strengths while lessening their weaknesses. It's not sexy but it's a time proven strategy. It's an interesting argument to have to make on a Reds site given the way the Reds rode a similar platoon at first base almost to the playoffs last season. I've also argued that having a great defender in Safeco's left CAN help the pitching in '07 just like it did in '03. Finally, I've argued that the impact of Jr's bat, assuming he mirrors his first half, basically isn't great enough compared to the options already on the Ms roster to justify trading the talent it would likely be necesary to give up in order to get him.

At this point the tone of the discussion seems to be degrading to a point where maybe it's best we just agree to disagree.

Patrick Bateman
07-31-2007, 12:20 AM
Against lefties, I would say there is about a 100% chance that Guillen will regress. He's not going to hit .450 against lefties.

The highest I could see from Guillen against lefties over an extended amount of time would be in the .900 OPS range. That's around what he was doing in his big season with the Reds.

Team Clark
07-31-2007, 01:26 AM
Is this inside info or is this just a theory?

An educated hypothesis. (If there is such a thing) :D

MartyFan
07-31-2007, 04:12 AM
I would not be surprised at all to see Jr. gone by tomorrow. I would be more surprised to see him stay if that makes any sense. The only hurdle is Junior wanting a contract extension to 2011. (Not at a discount either)

In a word...SHOCKING...I totally thought he would be off the table until after he gets #600.

So there is an acceptable offer on the table and Junior is good to go with an extension, eh?

I think that is the right trade to make...I LOVE JUNIOR but he needs to go to a team that can give him what this year and next years Reds cannot...a chance at a WS win!

osuceltic
07-31-2007, 09:21 AM
Originally Posted by Team Clark
I would not be surprised at all to see Jr. gone by tomorrow. I would be more surprised to see him stay if that makes any sense. The only hurdle is Junior wanting a contract extension to 2011. (Not at a discount either)
That "only hurdle" might as well be Mt. Freaking Everest. No team is going to extend him three more years. He might as well be invoking a no-trade clause.

flyer85
07-31-2007, 09:32 AM
That "only hurdle" might as well be Mt. Freaking Everest. No team is going to extend him three more years. He might as well be invoking a no-trade clause.that is the cost to get him to waive his 10-5 rights and accept a trade.

I really have never felt Jr was going anywhere.

Red Leader
07-31-2007, 09:57 AM
An AL team with the DH that desperately needs LH power might be willing to sign Jr. to an extension. You never know.

Team Clark
07-31-2007, 09:57 AM
that is the cost to get him to waive his 10-5 rights and accept a trade.

I really have never felt Jr was going anywhere.

I would imagine that goes along the lines of "you want me bad enough, you are going to have to pay for it".

osuceltic
07-31-2007, 10:00 AM
I would imagine that goes along the lines of "you want me bad enough, you are going to have to pay for it".
And no one is going to want him that badly. There are serious questions about giving up much talent for him for the next 18 months. Tack a big, fat, expensive extension on there? He's a Red until the current contract is up.

Red Leader
07-31-2007, 10:01 AM
I would imagine that goes along the lines of "you want me bad enough, you are going to have to pay for it".

Right. This is Ken Griffey, Jr. we're talking about here. He has been an "elite" player his whole career, a HOF player. He wants to be treated as such. Can't say I blame him.

Think about your job. If someone offered you a new position somewhere halfway across the country would you move with no future certainty or pay raise? I sure wouldn't.

KronoRed
07-31-2007, 10:09 AM
An AL team with the DH that desperately needs LH power might be willing to sign Jr. to an extension. You never know.

Maybe, but really only a team who has money to spare on a DH past the age of 40 would go for that, and Boston and the Yanks don't need a DH

BRM
07-31-2007, 10:14 AM
If a contract extension is part of the deal, Junior won't be going anywhere.

jojo
07-31-2007, 10:33 AM
An AL team with the DH that desperately needs LH power might be willing to sign Jr. to an extension. You never know.

Unfortunately the Ms don't fit that bill.

jojo
07-31-2007, 10:34 AM
That "only hurdle" might as well be Mt. Freaking Everest. No team is going to extend him three more years. He might as well be invoking a no-trade clause.

I think just a demand to pick up Jr's '09 option would probably be a deal killer.

BRM
07-31-2007, 10:35 AM
Unfortunately the Ms don't fit that bill.

The M's have essentially no LH power.

jojo
07-31-2007, 10:39 AM
The M's have essentially no LH power.

But why does that mean they think they desparately need it-especially at the cost that Jr's has been rumored to be?

After the feel good weekend of the summer, their FO pretty much indicated they have no desire to bring Jr back. Nothing has really changed since then that would give them a reason to change their mind.

coachw513
07-31-2007, 10:41 AM
Hard to believe that a 10/5 guy's agent wouldn't be deeply involved in discussions were a potential trade being consumated and equally hard to believe that no parties would be talking about it off the record in the media...too hard to keep a deal that needs permission from getting out in the open, IMO...

jojo
07-31-2007, 10:42 AM
Hard to believe that a 10/5 guy's agent wouldn't be deeply involved in discussions were a potential trade being consumated and equally hard to believe that no parties would be talking about it off the record in the media...too hard to keep a deal that needs permission from getting out in the open, IMO...

Jr back to Seattle would be the biggest story of the trade deadline cycle....ESPN would be pimping such a rumor every 3 seconds if it even had a semblance of a prosthetic leg....

jojo
07-31-2007, 10:49 AM
Also as what should be the final nail in the coffin to end the Jr to Seattle speculation.........

The absolute last thing the Ms need is a right-handed reliever for the 8th inning. Therefore, if the Ms do trade today, they will like burn all of their useful chips on acquiring two.

flyer85
07-31-2007, 10:51 AM
BTW, Larryboy thinks he going back to Seattle. :D

mbgrayson
07-31-2007, 10:52 AM
From MLB Trade Rumors:
"The Mets are also talking to the Reds; could've been about Ken Griffey Jr. or David Weathers. From what we've heard, though, Weathers is not available."

If Griffey went to the Mets, he would be just as close to his home in Florida. The Mets are a serious contender, and Beltran is hurt.

I didn't want to start a new rumor thread today....

M2
07-31-2007, 11:37 AM
That frankly is an estimate that you're pulling out of your arse. Basically to estimate a 10 run difference, you have to assume the worst case for the platoon and the best case for Jr. Guillen might regress, he might not. Ibanez certainly has room for a hot streak. Jr had a GREAT first half of the season. That said, there isn't much reason to believe his second half will be carbon copy. It's most reasonable to assume a let down given his age and wear and tear and the fact that his first half surpassed most people's reasonable expectations. God willing he won't suffer an injury. A 100 pt bump in OPS not only seems optimistic, it's probably unlikely.

For 2004-2007:

Raul Ibanez - .806 OPS
Jose Guillen - .801
Ken Griffey Jr. - .884

Interesting how Guillen's red-hot blip against southpaws is real, but Ibanez has room for a hot streak.

Seems to me, forecasting a .900 OPS for a healthy Jr. is fairly conservative seeing as it's something he's done with regularlity and forecasting more than an .800 OPS for Guillen/Ibanez is patently silly.


I'm not inventing anything. I'm basing my interpretation upon the culture of the Ms FO. If Jones is in left and Jr in right, there are two spots for Ibanez, Guillen, Broussard, Sexson and Vidro. Bavasi is fond of saying kids get managers fired. Assuming Bavasi doesn't want to get fired, Jones is low man on the totem pole in a log jam of veterans like that.

Your "interpretation upon the culture of the M's FO"? Talk about torturing language and logic. For the sake of argument, let's say you're right, Bavasi doesn't trust kids. Then Jones isn't playing anyway and your entire point is moot.


I understand that not everyone on a Reds board will closely follow player development in the systems of other teams. That said, platitudes, demogogery and dogma shouldn't be mistaken for knowledge or insight.

My guess is I follow these things far more closely than you. It would certainly seem the case as you've apparently failed to recognize that hot prospects routinely struggle through their first extended stays in the majors. I could keep the laundry list going beyond Delmon Young, Carlos Quentin and Stephen Drew, but what's the point? You're just going to ignore it and continue acting like Adam Jones won't face similar trials.


I guess it all depends on what cohort you're referencing. I know quite a few that would have a cow.

Then you know too many people who'd rather argue a point than win a division.


NO. It's how you spend it. It always has been and it always will be. Frankly, the Ms have spent like the old rich....very conservatively in the sense that they overpay for *proven*.

Old money's not conservative, it's dominion-oriented. New money buys Boardwalk. Old money buys the dice.

Obviously a franchise needs to spend its money well, but the point of being rich, and I've heard this from the mouths of the filthy rich, is being able to do what you want when you want to do it.


Of course they have. DUH.

Then, duh, stop speaking for them.


Once again, there is every reason to believe that Jones could be at least a league average bat in left field. His glove alone would be reason enough to stick him in left.

I'm not sure how many times I have to agree with you that the Mariners ought to play Jones, but I'll do it again just because you don't seem to be catching it. He'll probably struggle a bit, but given the roster alternatives that's not much of a concern. Of course, according to you, Bill Bavasi won't do it, so why you keep yammering about it escapes me.


It's pure poppycock to suggest that it's a given that a top tier prospect who has proven himself ready will struggle out of the gate. At least, guys like Pence and Braun seem to suggest such a blanket statement really is an empty one concerning it's predictive power.

Yep, those two did well.

Yet B.J. Upton's first 366 PAs were pretty forgettable.
Delmon Young's below average.
Elijah Dukes is struggling.
Nick Markakis has been an .800 OPS player, not the .993 OPS guy from AA.
Adam Lind has been awful.
Jason Kubel's been awful.
Josh Fields' OPS is 150 points lower than it was in AAA.
Alex Gordon, not so good.
Billy Butler's got a 114-point OPS gap from AAA to the majors (though he's been solid).
Howie Kendrick's been pretty blah.
Conor Jackson, Stephen Drew, Chris Young and Carlos Quentin have all struggled.
Troy Tulowitski plays in Colorado and he's still been able to do no better than pedestrian.
Kevin Kouzmanoff (.951 minor league OPS) has struggled.
Rickie Weeks, who destroyed AAA, still hasn't figured out the majors two seasons later.
Felix Pie, wretched.
Jeremy Hermida's maybe putting it together into his second season.

It's not a given that top hitting prospects will take some time to adjust, but it's pretty damn common.


The 2001-2002 versions of the Ms were perhaps some of the best defensive teams in recent history. They could afford to carry a Martin or Sierra in left. Even so neither player even got a majority of defensive innings in left either year.

Now wait a second, either LF is critical or it isn't. It's not uniquely critical when it suits your fancy and a backwater when it doesn't. Clearly the Safeco LF situation isn't so unique that the Mariners haven't been able to do like every other franchise in history and have a good defense while taking a mulligan in LF. If the Mariners can't pick up the ball well enough elsewhere on the diamond, then they need to address those positions. It gets back to what I said a way back in this thread: There's never been a LF in history who could turn a bad defense into a good one and there never will be.


The 2003 outfield alignment of the Ms is a perfect example that basically makes the case for Jones. Put a great defender in the largest leftfield in the AL where the Puget Sound causes balls in the air to hang and thus make them more catchable than in other parks and whooollaaaaa, team ERA plummets. To suggest that the size and environment of Safeco's left field doesn't make it unique is a bit absurd.

Voila, not whooollaaaaa (pet peeve). Yep, the Mariners had arguably the best OF defense in history in 2003. Unfortunately they missed the playoffs, unlike 2000 and 2001 when the plurality of time in LF went to defensive zeroes like Rickey Henderson and Al Martin. Hmm, if I didn't know better I'd say that LF defense didn't exactly prove to be a magic bullet.

Also, if the air causes the ball to hang then wouldn't it be an easier place to field? You know, giving fielders more time to run under the ball as opposed to a place with thin air and/or a slick/artificial carpet where the ball rockets into the gaps.


I've argued to platoon veterans to magnify their strengths while lessening their weaknesses.

You've argued to platoon players based on small sample sizes while chucking the career performance out the window.


It's not sexy but it's a time proven strategy. It's an interesting argument to have to make on a Reds site given the way the Reds rode a similar platoon at first base almost to the playoffs last season.

The 2006 Reds aren't a model for anything other than a team that, despite not being very good, found itself close to a playoff spot due to fluke circumstance. Teams that overachieve to 80-82 aren't exactly where I go for emulation. But hey, the Reds have a similar platoon again this year and now they're underachieving to 45-61. It's almost like that time-proven strategy makes little more than an ephemeral difference when larger forces are at play.

Don't get me wrong. I'd try those platoons (actually I'd use Guillen and Sexson against RHPs at times dependent on the starting pitcher) and I'd give Jones a shot, but at no juncture would I be under the delusion that I had fixed the offense enough to make the playoffs.


I've also argued that having a great defender in Safeco's left CAN help the pitching in '07 just like it did in '03.

How about in 2001 when the pitching and DER were better and the LF defense was worse? Obviously good defense can help pitching, but you've already made the case that it's other spots on the field that drive that bus, not LF.


Finally, I've argued that the impact of Jr's bat, assuming he mirrors his first half, basically isn't great enough compared to the options already on the Ms roster to justify trading the talent it would likely be necesary to give up in order to get him.

There's a difference between saying it and making the case. Yes, you'd horde the kids and ride the Raul Ibanez Express to Alsoranville. Brilliant. With all that money you're saving you'll be able to buy a giant HD flat screen on which you can watch the playoffs.

Team Clark
07-31-2007, 11:37 AM
Hard to believe that a 10/5 guy's agent wouldn't be deeply involved in discussions were a potential trade being consumated and equally hard to believe that no parties would be talking about it off the record in the media...too hard to keep a deal that needs permission from getting out in the open, IMO...

Like the Milwaukee rumor that was supposedly not true? There is no doubt in my mind that Brian Goldberg, JR's agent, has been in direct contact with several teams in the past few weeks.

Remember the White Sox deal that no one heard about until months later? Ohhh that's right. Those talks never happened either. :D Spin and media control is just as important in trade talks as any other component. For all his faults, Jim Bowden was the master of this.


From MLB Trade Rumors:
"The Mets are also talking to the Reds; could've been about Ken Griffey Jr. or David Weathers. From what we've heard, though, Weathers is not available."

Possibly a good fit for Jr. IMO. I'd like to see him get a legitimate shot at a ring.

M2
07-31-2007, 11:42 AM
The M's have essentially no LH power.

You're making too much sense. Just because they're bereft of it doesn't mean they think they need it, let alone that they'd want it. I mean, assuming teams are going to attempt to trade for the things they lack is bit too Frank Lloyd Baum, don't you think?

RedLegSuperStar
07-31-2007, 11:45 AM
From MLB Trade Rumors:
"The Mets are also talking to the Reds; could've been about Ken Griffey Jr. or David Weathers. From what we've heard, though, Weathers is not available."

If Griffey went to the Mets, he would be just as close to his home in Florida. The Mets are a serious contender, and Beltran is hurt.

I didn't want to start a new rumor thread today....

Personally I think it was about Jeff Conine

HotCorner
07-31-2007, 11:52 AM
From MLB Trade Rumors:
"The Mets are also talking to the Reds; could've been about Ken Griffey Jr. or David Weathers. From what we've heard, though, Weathers is not available."

If Griffey went to the Mets, he would be just as close to his home in Florida. The Mets are a serious contender, and Beltran is hurt.

I didn't want to start a new rumor thread today....

Lastings Milledge please. :D

redsfan4445
07-31-2007, 11:54 AM
Possibly a good fit for Jr. IMO. I'd like to see him get a legitimate shot at a ring.

I would like to see BOB make a stand and tell the REDS fans,, 2008 WILL BE the YEAR this team makes the playoffs.. and does what he can do to get the team there.. be it get a REAL manager and REAL pitching coach as well as a GM that knows how to make the right trades.. and WILL spend the money saved from Lohse, Milton and Dunn(i still think he gets traded), and WILL improve this team.. not think fans will come out to watch crap baseball played.. not waiting 10 more years of rebuilding... it gets old... i pray the bengals go all the way to really make BOB see how fun WINNING is next door that he wanst it VERY BAD too!!..

Also Pete Rose was on Furmans show yesterday, said that last year when the Reds blew it on that west coast trip, he was at Dodger stadium during one of those 3 games and NARRON "MR Baseball Guy" came up to him and asked him if he could give the team a pep talk as he couldnt motivate them".. Now isnt that sad??? heck i could see he cant motivate anybody.. it showed this season till he was fired!! Mack has helped, but until that dang bullpen is fixed, this team isnt going anywhere!!.. Hume needs to go along with Pole!!

I just hope BOB doesnt think 10 bobble head nights will get the fans back to watching a last place team... if i want a bobble head bad enough i will buy one on E-Bay!

I want to see a winner..

Oh TC, why is Gomes being avalable in a trade? wouldnt he do better as a LH DH for TB?? he has the power!

Also you think the Reds WK was smart getting Cantu??

BRM
07-31-2007, 11:55 AM
You're making too much sense. Just because they're bereft of it doesn't mean they think they need it, let alone that they'd want it. I mean, assuming teams are going to attempt to trade for the things they lack is bit too Frank Lloyd Baum, don't you think?

Contending is overrated. Fans would rather watch Raul Ibanez anyway.

Team Clark
07-31-2007, 01:00 PM
Oh TC, why is Gomes being avalable in a trade? wouldnt he do better as a LH DH for TB?? he has the power!

Also you think the Reds WK was smart getting Cantu??

Gomes is really a player on an island in TB. A decent trading chip for sure. My only concern would be his health. his 2006 numbers were an indication of what it was like for him to play with a torn up shoulder. IMO, he's as likely to put up 2005 numbers as 2006. Gomes always reminded me of a young Rusell Branyan. Gomes is a RH btw.

Do I think Wayne was "smart" by getting Cantu? Hmmmm. I am in favor of the move as long as there are other moves to make this one necessary. i.e. Conine and Hatte being traded for something of VALUE. Getting Cantu just to get him I really can't get behind. I stated in another thread that I did like the move and I see Cantu playing 1B.

He's cheap for another year and if he returns to his 2004, 2005 numbers (big gamble) then I think we may have stolen him from TB. Cantu can't be relied upon to get OB but he can drive in some runs and carry a team for a week or two. His defense is scary. Kind of like Dunn at 1B scary. :p:

jojo
08-02-2007, 12:11 AM
For 2004-2007:

Raul Ibanez - .806 OPS
Jose Guillen - .801
Ken Griffey Jr. - .884

Interesting how Guillen's red-hot blip against southpaws is real, but Ibanez has room for a hot streak.

Seems to me, forecasting a .900 OPS for a healthy Jr. is fairly conservative seeing as it's something he's done with regularlity and forecasting more than an .800 OPS for Guillen/Ibanez is patently silly.

First, I've never suggested that Guillen's '07 split against lefties is representative of his true ability. I have suggested though that if Aurilia could mash lefties like he did for all of 2006, there is no reason to assume Guillen will immediately regress to his mean. Why wouldn't you ride that for all it's worth?

Besides consider this:

Here are three year platoon splits for Guillen/Raul:
Raul vs righties ('05-'07): .287/.360/.494; OPS: .854;
Jose vs lefties ('04-'07): .292/.345/.495; OPS: .840;

Raul/Jose combined: .288/.356/.494; OPS: .850;

Jr (2005-2007): .277/.358/.532; OPS: .890;

Using three year splits as a way to diminish a bias due to Guillens crazy 2007, the difference between the platoon and Jr is .040 OPS. Over the last 56 games, a difference of .040 OPS translates into roughly 5 RC.

There is one caveat though with Guillen as I used his '04 season rather than his '06 because last season he had no business holding a bat (the effect isn't that great anyway). Jr has been hurt too of course but since you'd have to go back to 2000 for him not to be, it's more representative to simply ignore the issue with him. Besides none of these numbers are park adjusted.

Concerning Ibanez, since Pecota predicted a much better year for him (.283/.353/.487; OPS: .840) than the one he is having thus far (.253/.306/.389; OPS: .695), it seems that Ibanez DOES have room for a hot streak. Who knows, Ibanez might actually get worse but to suggest that Ibanez doesn't have room for improvement seems harsh. Even people who simply look at the back of his baseball card might reasonably think he's got room for a hot streak.

On the other hand, Jr has had a GREAT first half (.286/.390/.568 OPS: .958) that blew away his Pecota projection (.274/.341/.501; OPS: .842) to the tune of somewhere near the 90th percentile. For him to OPS at .900, he'd have to hit Pecota's 75th percentile. Given that and considering the second half he's having (.188/.342/.297; OPS: .639), even devout Reds fans (and I'm assuming we both fit that bill) might consider him OPSing .900 the rest of the way to be optimistic.

Pecota is NOT destiny of course, but whether looking at the past or using projection tools to look at the future, an expected 5 RC difference seems like a reasonable estimate.

What would those 5 RC cost? Jr is owed roughly $3.5M the rest of '07, $12.5 M for '08 and $16.5M for his '09 (he'd most likely demand the option be picked up in order for him to waive his no-trade rights). Then there is the young talent that the Reds would likely demand in trade. It's debatable but given Krivsky's hard stance during the trade season, I'd guess he'd at least ask for Balentien and Clement. Clement represents potential lefty power and Wlad could very well suceed Guillen in right with both of these thigs occurring as early as next season. Neither happen if theyre traded away for a couple expensive years of JR.

So, those 5 RC could mean the Ms would have to take on a little over $30M in payroll and give up two excellent prospects that could help them as early as next season all the while ignoring the fact that Jr hasn't played a full season since 2000. All of that despite a compelling case being made that trading for Jr just simply wouldn't reasonably be expected to provide the kind of upgrade over a platoon of Guillen/Ibanez to justify the Ms trading for him. The Ms come out ahead by staying in house.


Your "interpretation upon the culture of the M's FO"? Talk about torturing language and logic. For the sake of argument, let's say you're right, Bavasi doesn't trust kids. Then Jones isn't playing anyway and your entire point is moot.

I don't want to get snarky but this really is a bunch of hand waving.

You can't ignore a FO's philosophy and M.O. when supposing how they value players and how they might utilize their roster. In fact, an understanding of their philosophy and M.O. is essential in a discussion like the one we're having.

Bavasi is on record (many times over) concerning his views and there is a history of his transactions.

Just recently he said this (http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/baseball/325889_mbok01.html):

"Knowing we had Adam Jones was very much a part of our decision-making process," general manager Bill Bavasi said.

This suggests he would indeed play Jones and wasn't inclined to make a trade that would create a situation less conducive to his playing like creating a log jam of veterans.


My guess is I follow these things far more closely than you. It would certainly seem the case as you've apparently failed to recognize that hot prospects routinely struggle through their first extended stays in the majors. I could keep the laundry list going beyond Delmon Young, Carlos Quentin and Stephen Drew, but what's the point? You're just going to ignore it and continue acting like Adam Jones won't face similar trials.

I enjoy reading your posts (including your contributions to the minor league forum). I think you're knowledgeable. But with all due respect, I'm willing to bet I'm better versed on the Ms player development than you may be. While perfectly understandable, not remembering or appreciating that Jones already has major league service time suggests you've chosen to focus on other teams more diligently. It's not a criticism of you. I'm just wondering why you'd automatically assume more knowledge of the Ms system than a professed Ms junkie.



Obviously a franchise needs to spend its money well, but the point of being rich, and I've heard this from the mouths of the filthy rich, is being able to do what you want when you want to do it.

The point of being filthy rich is to act like a child? :cool:


I'm not sure how many times I have to agree with you that the Mariners ought to play Jones, but I'll do it again just because you don't seem to be catching it. He'll probably struggle a bit, but given the roster alternatives that's not much of a concern. Of course, according to you, Bill Bavasi won't do it, so why you keep yammering about it escapes me.

I've actually argued that if the Ms acquired Jr it would create a roster log jam that given Bavasi's biases would almost certainly preclude Jones getting significant playing time. This opinion is based upon an informed history. To suggest otherwise, ignores how they've done business in the past. But entertaining for a moment that Bavasi would do something out of character, the Ms still don't need Jr. They could accomplish production that's reasonably expected to approximate Jr in-house without breaking the bank or trading valuable talent that may be significant for their future. Arguments about Jones really are tangential to the underlying point.



Yep, those two did well.

Yet B.J. Upton's first 366 PAs were pretty forgettable.
Delmon Young's below average.
Elijah Dukes is struggling.
Nick Markakis has been an .800 OPS player, not the .993 OPS guy from AA.
Adam Lind has been awful.
Jason Kubel's been awful.
Josh Fields' OPS is 150 points lower than it was in AAA.
Alex Gordon, not so good.
Billy Butler's got a 114-point OPS gap from AAA to the majors (though he's been solid).
Howie Kendrick's been pretty blah.
Conor Jackson, Stephen Drew, Chris Young and Carlos Quentin have all struggled.
Troy Tulowitski plays in Colorado and he's still been able to do no better than pedestrian.
Kevin Kouzmanoff (.951 minor league OPS) has struggled.
Rickie Weeks, who destroyed AAA, still hasn't figured out the majors two seasons later.
Felix Pie, wretched.
Jeremy Hermida's maybe putting it together into his second season.

It's not a given that top hitting prospects will take some time to adjust, but it's pretty damn common.

Really analyses like this are missing context. Rickie Weeks and Felix Pie don't inform Jones' performance any more than Pence and Braun do. Entering this season, Pecota forecasted Jones as a slightly above average bat for AL left fielders. Jones' performance in AAA seems to support that assessment. Will Jones OPS at .970 as an M this season? Not many informed fans would expect him to. Would he perform to his projections? There's not much reason to doubt it. In fact a survey of the big five projection systems all agree with Pecota. I wouldn't characterize being slightly above league average at age 22 while playing above average defense to be struggling. Maybe others would.


Now wait a second, either LF is critical or it isn't.

My argument about Safeco's left field is pretty straightforward. Given its immense size and the impact the Puget Sound has on how balls travel there, the Ms are in a unique position to gain a significant advantage by playing a plus defender there because such a player can eat up balls that would otherwise be hits with his superior range.

Safeco's left field IS unique in how it could be exploited for a defensive advantage. Given the Ms rather bad outfield defense, upgrading left field could have a significant impact on their RA.

Failing to exploit an advantage doesn't prove one doesn't exist and having the Puget Sound artificially inflate a minus defender's abilities doesn't negate the advantage that could be gained by having the Puget Sound inflate a plus defender's abilities. Given that Ibanez's defense is ranked near mlb worst despite the Puget Sound really highlights how much potential advantage lies untapped in the vastness of Safeco's leftfield this season. Trying to hide a lousy defender out there represents a large opportunity cost.


You've argued to platoon players based on small sample sizes while chucking the career performance out the window.

No I haven't.



Don't get me wrong. I'd try those platoons (actually I'd use Guillen and Sexson against RHPs at times dependent on the starting pitcher) and I'd give Jones a shot, but at no juncture would I be under the delusion that I had fixed the offense enough to make the playoffs.

But you've argued Jr would.


There's a difference between saying it and making the case.

A compelling case has been made.

You may not agree but that's different than suggesting that an opposing argument hasn't been formulated.


Yes, you'd horde the kids and ride the Raul Ibanez Express to Alsoranville. Brilliant. With all that money you're saving you'll be able to buy a giant HD flat screen on which you can watch the playoffs.

But spending a boat load of money and talent on Jr wouldn't change things this year and would have consequences for the future.

Anyway, we obviously have some differences of opinion about how money/prospects should be utilized. That said, this has been a stimulating discussion for the most part that has touched on alot of issues. I appreciate the dialog.

M2
08-02-2007, 10:09 AM
You can't ignore a FO's philosophy and M.O. when supposing how they value players and how they might utilize their roster. In fact, an understanding of their philosophy and M.O. is essential in a discussion like the one we're having.

Bavasi is on record (many times over) concerning his views and there is a history of his transactions.

Just recently he said this (http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/baseball/325889_mbok01.html):

This suggests he would indeed play Jones and wasn't inclined to make a trade that would create a situation less conducive to his playing like creating a log jam of veterans.

Now, wait a second. Bavasi's words and record indicate that he doesn't trust kids, but "he would indeed play Adam Jones"?

I'll say it again. I'd play Adam Jones too. However, the Mariners aren't yet doing that.


I enjoy reading your posts (including your contributions to the minor league forum). I think you're knowledgeable. But with all due respect, I'm willing to bet I'm better versed on the Ms player development than you may be. While perfectly understandable, not remembering or appreciating that Jones already has major league service time suggests you've chosen to focus on other teams more diligently. It's not a criticism of you. I'm just wondering why you'd automatically assume more knowledge of the Ms system than a professed Ms junkie.

Honestly, I'm not getting any prospect sense from you other than you happen to read a few lists and can quote some current stats. No perspective. No individual insight. I read lists and look up stats as well. Been tracking minor league progress into the majors since the late '80s. The Mariners don't exist in a bubble.

Jones' cup of coffee last season does not constitute a full apprenticeship. He's going to face a harsh adjustment. In fact, the PCL-to-Safeco adjustment is probably harsher than most.


I've actually argued that if the Ms acquired Jr it would create a roster log jam that given Bavasi's biases would almost certainly preclude Jones getting significant playing time.

Yeah, God forbid you crowd a roster with talent. That'll never work.


Really analyses like this are missing context. Rickie Weeks and Felix Pie don't inform Jones' performance any more than Pence and Braun do

You've yet to offer up a single reason why Jones is so easily projectable while so many others aren't. Given your "informed" understanding of the Mariner front office can you explain why the franchise has yet to agree with you on this point? If Adam Jones is an obvious given I assume he'd be playing in the majors ... unless, you know, there's some doubt that he is an obvious given. Mind you, I'd still play him, back to the whole nothing to lose argument, but it's unlikely he'll provide any sort of immediate significant offensive boost.


My argument about Safeco's left field is pretty straightforward.

You've got a real crooked straightforward.

1) Once again, good defense always helps.
2) Yet the Mariners have in the past played poor LF defenders in Safeco and still had great defense and quality clubs. LF defense is hardly an essential to success there.
3) The Mariners rank near the bottom of the pile in DER and LF defense isn't going to change that.
4) I'd play Adam Jones. The connection you continually fail to make is that playing Adam Jones most likely isn't going to turn the Seattle Mariners into a playoff team.


But you've argued Jr would.

I've argued Jr. could. Yes, I do think getting a big LH power bat onto a team almost bereft of LH power could be a major acquisition (obviously he'd have to stay healthy, something I never take for granted with Jr.).


A compelling case has been made.

Good to know you agree with yourself.


But spending a boat load of money and talent on Jr wouldn't change things this year and would have consequences for the future.

Adding frontline talent always changes things. Would it change things enough? Hard to say because the Mariners are really overachieving. As for the future, doesn't look so bright that the Mariners need to worry about shades. This could be the only open window that franchise sees for the next few years.

George Anderson
08-02-2007, 10:20 AM
Also Pete Rose was on Furmans show yesterday, said that last year when the Reds blew it on that west coast trip, he was at Dodger stadium during one of those 3 games and NARRON "MR Baseball Guy" came up to him and asked him if he could give the team a pep talk as he couldnt motivate them"

I find this hard to believe since Pete isnt allowed anywhere near a field or clubhouse.

westofyou
08-02-2007, 10:27 AM
I find this hard to believe since Pete isnt allowed anywhere near a field or clubhouse.

Maybe they were all going to meet at the track instead?

Pete still goes there daily.

George Anderson
08-02-2007, 10:30 AM
Maybe they were all going to meet at the track instead?

Pete still goes there daily.

I would say that scenario is more likely than Pete actually telling the truth about something.

jojo
08-04-2007, 11:34 PM
Not to beat a dead horse even more by continuing this thread, but some interesting issues where brought up.


Now, wait a second. Bavasi's words and record indicate that he doesn't trust kids, but "he would indeed play Adam Jones"?

I'll say it again. I'd play Adam Jones too. However, the Mariners aren't yet doing that.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SEA/SEA200708030.shtml



Honestly, I'm not getting any prospect sense from you other than you happen to read a few lists and can quote some current stats. No perspective. No individual insight. I read lists and look up stats as well. Been tracking minor league progress into the majors since the late '80s.

Actually, I don't read lists. I could care less if someone thinks Adam Jones is the tenth ranked player in the minors or the 1000th.

I do spend as much time watching as possible as well as corresponding with others who get to watch even more than I do. It takes alot of effort which is why it seems nearly impossble for someone to have an in depth appreciation of player development in more than one or maybe two teams without actually doing it for a living. I'm a hack obviously but I'm a dedicated one. If your standard is that no one other than a professional scout etc can have useful, correct insight, I'm not really sure why you'd offer a counterpoint.

BTW, I've seen Jones at Tacoma several times over the last two seasons as well as several times when he was with Wisconsin. The eyes and the stats are in perfect harmony on this one IMHO. Interestingly, you'll have to look long and hard to find someone in the industry who disagrees so while I may be guilty of a bias, I'm comfortable with it.

It bears repeating once again, no one has argued that Jones will OPS at .970 as a Mariner this year. I've basically suggested he'll be slightly above league average offensively while playing plus defense. That as a package represents an upgrade over Ibanez.


The Mariners don't exist in a bubble.

I'm still at a loss as to why you argue context is meaningless.


Jones' cup of coffee last season does not constitute a full apprenticeship. He's going to face a harsh adjustment. In fact, the PCL-to-Safeco adjustment is probably harsher than most.

But as noted below, it's a transition that can modeled so it's effect on his potential performance can be quantified. We can get a pretty reasonable idea of what to expect from his bat.


You've yet to offer up a single reason why Jones is so easily projectable while so many others aren't.

I'd argue that minor leaguers ARE projectable.

Bill James was one of the first to begin promoting this truth:

As a guide to major league performance, minor league batting statistics are reliable virtually 100% of the time. . .In
anticipating future major league performance, minor league batting records are of essentially the same degree of reliability as previous major league batting statistics.- 1985 Baseball Abstract

By this he wasn't suggesting minor league performance was directly translatable but rather, after a series of corrections, minor league stats and major league stats could essentially be compared on an apples to apples basis.

It's important to make a distinction here-a player is projectable in the sense that his future performance can be accurately predicted. This in no way implies that projectability means he'll equal his unadjusted minor league numbers. And that is the rub. Bill James argued that a player's translated minor league numbers are reflective of his ability relative to the majors. The raw numbers are almost always going to be influenced by too many factors such as run scoring environment, competition level, park factors etc to be directly interpretable.

More recently projection systems like Pecota have built upon this foundation to actually project a player's performance by building a list of comparables to model a player's potential development. Basically James said this is how a player would've been in the majors based upon his performance in the minors. Pecota and other systems say this is what that player can become in the majors. As more detailed minor league/college data have become accessible, these systems have become much more reliable even with rookies/prospects. There is alot of room to grow in this regard (especially with issues like aluminum bats and college performance) but as the databases continue to grow, so too is the precision of projection.

You posted a list of players as proof that the performance of prospects can't be predicted. Basically you seem to be arguing that since the major league numbers put up by these players don't resemble their minor league numbers, these players are proof that prospects can't be projected.

Even though the list was a small sample, for kicks I compared Pecota's weighted mean projected OPS for each player's first significant major league season vs their actual OPS. Below is a summary:


Player Year Pecota Actual A-P % miss
Upton 2004 0.626 0.733 0.107 17
Young 2006 0.805 0.812 0.007 1
Dukes 2007 0.803 0.709 -0.094 -12
Markalis 2006 0.756 0.799 0.043 6
Lind 2006 0.737 1.015 0.278 38
Kubel 2004 0.670 0.791 0.121 18
J. Fields 2007 0.787 0.705 -0.082 -10
Kendrick 2006 0.804 0.730 -0.074 -9
C. Jackson 2006 0.798 0.810 0.012 2
Drew 2006 0.809 0.874 0.065 8
Young 2006 0.840 0.694 -0.146 -17
Quentin 2006 0.809 0.872 0.063 8
Kouzmanoff 2006 0.723 0.690 -0.033 -5
Weeks 2005 0.765 0.727 -0.038 -5
Pie 2007 0.822 0.617 -0.205 -25
Hermida 2006 0.800 0.716 -0.084 -11

To summarize, Pecota projected the OPS of 8 players within 9% of their actual performance. Pecota only missed by more than 1 SD twice with one player significantly out performing his projection (Lind) and the other significantly under performing it (Pie). Of the 6 remaining players, two out performed their projections (Upton and Kubel) and the remaining 4 under performed them. Basically 63% of the list either met or exceeded Pecota's projected performance. Only one player completely flopped (Pie).

So there is a big difference between whether a player's performance is projectable or whether a player duplicates the numbers he put up in the last year of his minor league career (which nobody should reasonably expect anyway).

Just for fun, I went back and examined the how accurately Pecota projected the OPS for all rookies that had atleast 50 PAs in 2006. Of the 82 qualifying players, 65% of them either tied (defined as within +/- .035 of OPS; i.e. within 5%) or bested Pecota's projection. Of the 35% that performed worse than expected based upon Pecota, only a third performed lower than 1 SD of their projected OPS. So basically two thirds of all rookies in 2006 performed either within 5% or they bested their projection. Only 12% of all rookie in 2006 performed below 1 SD of their projected OPS.

I'd suggest that minor leaguers are projectable. While this was rough justice, there just isn't this pandemic of prospects who are failing-at least not in 2006. IMHO those that advocate flipping near major league ready prospects for *proven* major league talent overetimate the risk associated with the development of players that have reached the high minors (especially those players that rocket through systems at young ages).

Now consider Adam Jones. Pecota projects him as basically sightly above league average for an AL left fielder. His comparability score of 56 (off the charts) suggests if ever there was a player they think they've pegged, it would be him. Interestingly, Bill James, Marcel, and CHONE all essentially project Jones identically to Pecota.

Really the onus is on you to explain specifically why Jones ISNT a good bet to OPS somewhere around .750.


You've got a real crooked straightforward.

1) Once again, good defense always helps.
2) Yet the Mariners have in the past played poor LF defenders in Safeco and still had great defense and quality clubs. LF defense is hardly an essential to success there.
3) The Mariners rank near the bottom of the pile in DER and LF defense isn't going to change that.
4) I'd play Adam Jones. The connection you continually fail to make is that playing Adam Jones most likely isn't going to turn the Seattle Mariners into a playoff team.

Basically we disagree. You're undervaluing the impact of good defense in Safeco's leftfield as well as the impact of substituting a plus defender for arguable one of the worst defensive outfielders in the majors. The Mariners are currently on top of the wild card chase and only 2 games out of their division. Jones' defense alone in left field would go a long way toward closing that gap.

I don't understand the counter argument frankly. You upgrade what you CAN upgrade.


I've argued Jr. could. Yes, I do think getting a big LH power bat onto a team almost bereft of LH power could be a major acquisition (obviously he'd have to stay healthy, something I never take for granted with Jr.).

But the numbers just don't crunch in way that suggests the addition of Jr would be that big of a boost-and those numbers weren't park or league adjusted which obviously would hurt Jr.



Adding frontline talent always changes things. Would it change things enough? Hard to say because the Mariners are really overachieving. As for the future, doesn't look so bright that the Mariners need to worry about shades. This could be the only open window that franchise sees for the next few years.

First, I don't agree about the window statement. The core of their infield and outfield is locked up. Time will only allow them to cut chaff like Sexson/Vidro etc. Felix and the pen are here to stay for a while and there are some nice position players in the high minors with a certifiable stud (Triunfel) in low ball. The biggest issue is starting pitching.

It may be the fan in me (well ok it is the fan in me), but when the Ms have been outscored 13 to 76 in six really painful games, I'm not so concerned that the pythag thinks they're lucky. The Ms are a good but flawed team. If you're arguing LAA, Detroit, Cleveland and Boston are better and are more likely to make the playoffs, you won't get an argument from me. Trading for Jr would've done nothing to change that. Calling up Jones and forcing platoons has a higher ceiling than trading for Jr and such an approach doesn't require breaking the bank or mortgaging the future.