PDA

View Full Version : Lonnie Wheeler (Cincinnati Post): At trade deadline, it's Dunn who should go



RedLegSuperStar
07-30-2007, 10:32 AM
Cincinnati Post / Lonnie Wheeler -


Controversial ballplayers usually earn that description through conduct unbecoming to some. By being cocky or crude, lazy or unlawful. Adam Dunn is none of those things.

Somehow, though, he achieves the same effect by striking out in historic bundles, by walking with a similar persistence, and by lurching after fly balls as though he's carrying Ryan Freel on his back. He does it by killing a rally one inning and polluting the Ohio River later in the game.

Dunn is, all in all, a fascinating study. To the old-school purist who views the game with a reverence for the subtle and situational, he is a power-hitting eyesore. To the new-school numbers-cruncher who measures the sport with clusters of capital letters (OPS, RC, VORP, ETC.), the Reds' left fielder is a sabermetric superstar. It comes down, basically, to whether you trust your instincts or your slide rule, with shades of interpretation complicating both accounts.

Dunn's corner would argue that the big fellow's homers and on-base percentage (greatly abetted by his penchant for bases on balls) produce quantities of runs, driven in and scored, that simply cannot be dismissed or easily replaced, and that those impressive totals clearly dwarf any deficiencies he may demonstrate in the outfield.

The other side would counter that the former quarterback is not paid an eight-figure salary to leave runners on base or let somebody else knock them in; that if a strikeout is no different than any other kind of out, why is such a premium placed on relief pitchers who can pile them up?; that, by falling short on the finer points, Dunn fails to make his teammates better, or even as useful as they might be; that his M.O. is the very antithesis of what works so well for, say, the Los Angeles Angels; that, because his nature is simply not hell-for-leather, he does little in the way of leading or inspiring his ballclub; that the long-ball approach has not served the Reds well in his seven Cincinnati seasons, each of which has been a losing one.

Further muddling all of these machinations is the matter of Dunn's contract, and how it plays into the Reds' payroll. At $2 million, Dunn would be one of baseball's best bargains. At $6 million, he would be one of the better values in the National League. At $10.5 million, which is what he's making this year, he provides sufficient bang for the bucks. At $13 million, which is what he'll be paid next year if the Reds exercise their option on his contract, the debates will rage.

Is it the best use of small-market money? And if not, should Dunn be traded by Tuesday?

The latter question has consumed the rumor mongers for a couple months now. Tuesday, of course, marks the trade deadline. Any team making an exchange for Dunn would have him only for the rest of the season - after which he would become a free agent - unless first agreeing to longer terms with the jocular Texan.

That complication has led a lot of folks to submit that Cincinnati would be better off dealing Dunn during the offseason, which is not particularly feasible. If the Reds were to sign him first, they would be prohibited from trading the slugger without his unlikely consent. If they were to not sign him, he would become a free agent.

And so, what to do? There's little doubt that, in spite of their short-term resurgence under Pete Mackanin, the Reds remain in a trading mode. There's little doubt that Dunn has been discussed with any number of clubs, the pros and cons convoluted by all of the above and more.

A few weeks ago, Reds general manager Wayne Krivsky stated that he'll have a better idea of what to do after July 29, when it's more evident whether the club should be buyers or sellers or either. Well, it's evident, all right. Losing Sunday, for the second time in three weekend games against Chicago, made certain of that. The Reds now trail Lou Piniella's team by 11 . And the Cubs are in second place.

"There's things in the works," Mackanin said. "I'd like to know what the complexion of the team is going to be when this is all over and said and done. I know Wayne Krivsky is working extremely hard to make the best deal he can, whether it's selling off some people we have and getting prospects or whether it's getting somebody who can play at the major-league level and contribute to our season."

The cold fact is that, whether or not Dunn remains on the roster for the rest of the Reds' season, it will end exactly two months from today. And whether or not he remains, it will be a controversial move.

What a trade of Dunn would undoubtedly do is make-over the very composition of the ballclub, which can be broken down this way: Cincinnati stands second in the league in home runs, sixth in runs scored, 15th in runs surrendered and 15th in winning percentage.

"I wouldn't say that it's by design that the team is tilted towards power," the skipper observed. "But I think because of the ballpark, you get more home runs than other teams in different ballparks. I'd like to have a little bit of everything. I'm not going to put my signature on that this is a team that relies on power. We've scored a lot of runs due to our power, but I don't think it was by design. I think that just happened.

"I like to have every ingredient. You look at the Cubs - they've got power, they've got speed. They've got some guys who can manufacture runs. If you follow the blueprint that's been set for 120 years, it works. Pitching and defense, defense up the middle, speed at the top of the order, power in the middle, bat-handlers at the bottom. That works. You look at Hatteberg, who gives you a professional at-bat. You look at Keppinger - just a solid approach to being a professional major-league hitter. And I certainly would like to have more like that."

Which brings us back to Dunn. My suggestion, for what it's worth, is do the deed.

With all respect to what Mackanin has accomplished, and to whoever the manager might be next year, the Reds still require a chemical change of the purposeful sort. The only way to effect that change is by swapping out Dunn or Ken Griffey Jr. (who calls up a whole different set of nuances), provided that the players arriving in return, and those acquired with the money salvaged, are capable of contributing significantly toward a pennant drive in 2008.

And who, exactly, would those players be? Is anyone of that description even available in the Dunn market?

That's for Krivsky to decide, and for everyone else to argue about, endlessly.

Ltlabner
07-30-2007, 10:37 AM
Dunn's corner would argue that the big fellow's homers and on-base percentage (greatly abetted by his penchant for bases on balls) produce quantities of runs, driven in and scored, that simply cannot be dismissed or easily replaced, and that those impressive totals clearly dwarf any deficiencies he may demonstrate in the outfield.

Are walks a bad thing? I guess my copy of the rule book doesn't list BB as a rules violation or punishment metted out by the umpire.

If only most of those walks were singles. Then they'd be worth something.

flyer85
07-30-2007, 10:43 AM
I can see the Reds trading Dunn, I just hope WK isn't dumb enough to trade him for relief pitchers because if a FO knows what there doing they can build a good pen for very little(see San Diego).

WVRedsFan
07-30-2007, 10:47 AM
Are walks a bad thing? I guess my copy of the rule book doesn't list BB as a rules violation or punishment metted out by the umpire.

If only most of those walks were singles. Then they'd be worth something.

Tremendous point. If the walks, even half of them, were singles, folks would be singing his praises. to date he's walked 57 times so if half of them were singles, dunn would be batting .312 with 27 HR and 67 RBI. The defensive concerns would go away and the $13 million would be nothing to worry about. But he's batting .260 and that statistic ruins whatever else he does. Never mind that he leads or is near the top RBI man on the club.

Will he be traded? I think yes. Probably today and that low runs per game average will get lower. We know not what we do.

Joseph
07-30-2007, 10:47 AM
I'm not a big fan of this Wheeler article, but I hope he finds more reds work after the post is gone.

Red Leader
07-30-2007, 10:53 AM
But isn't Everyday Eddie coming back soon to save our season? What would we do with Cordero? Is Wayne trying to give us the Hispanic Nasty Boys?

In all seriousness, why Cordero and Rauch? Oh, that's right, because last year's trade for Maj and Bray didn't work out. Might as well throw more talent away to fix that problem yet again. What if this trade doesn't work? Will we trade Arroyo for Joe Borowski and a younger reliever? Wayne, let it go. Take a deep breath. Then, realize what you would be doing to our offense. I know the bullpen is unwatchable, but you can fix that another way much easier than you can replacing a 40 HR, 90+ RBI guy with an OBP north of .350. There's no need to give up our biggest run producer to fix that problem.

flyer85
07-30-2007, 10:57 AM
In all seriousness, why Cordero and Rauch? because WK really doesn't know what he is looking for.

My gut feeling is that the WK will take the best deal on the table for Dunn.

BTW, Cordero is exactly the wrong guy they should be looking at for a potential closer. Flyball pitcher, non bat- misser with a BB rate that is not low and is going to get expensive. He has a good chance of imploding if he comes to GABP.

Rauch is also an extreme flyball pitcher.

WK would be better off with the draft picks because Cordero/Rauch are not going to close to solving this teams problems.

RedLegSuperStar
07-30-2007, 11:10 AM
Will he be traded? I think yes. Probably today and that low runs per game average will get lower. We know not what we do.

I think if the Reds can get back someone like Andre Ethier (Dodgers), Melky Cabrera (Yankees), or Terry Evans (Angels) would bring a better average, speed, and not Adam Dunn pop.. but they have shown signs of contributing average power.. of course numbers may rise in GABP as well. But you don't know if numbers will rise or lower. Because I think if the Reds do however deal Hatteberg and/or Conine that Votto gets called up. I think Cantu then gets moved to 1B/3B in Louisville and we could see him platooning next season with Votto And Encarnacion. The thing with Dunn has always been the stikeouts and the defense. That is what everyone pin points. I'd hate to see him go.. but I don't know if the Reds can win with him here and his possible 13.5 million dollar salary.

RedLegSuperStar
07-30-2007, 11:18 AM
BTW, Cordero is exactly the wrong guy they should be looking at for a potential closer. Flyball pitcher, non bat- misser with a BB rate that is not low and is going to get expensive. He has a good chance of imploding if he comes to GABP.

Not agreeing with you or disagreeing with you but here is Cordero's numbers: Cordero's Numbers (http://washington.nationals.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?player_id=430101)

He's been really good his last 10 games:

.90 ERA / 6 Saves / 10 Innings / 7 Hits / 1 Earned Run / 2 BB / 6 K's

RedsManRick
07-30-2007, 11:21 AM
I love the comparison with the Cubs because it shows just how screwed up the thinking is in many circles.

The Reds have scored 489 runs and allowed 547. The Cubs have scored 482 runs and allowed 421.

The whole "speed at the top of the order, power in the middle, bat-handlers at the bottom. That works." line is utter crap. We score more runs than the cubs, even with our pathetic team OBP. The Cubs are better because they allow 4.09 R/G and we allow 5.16 R/G. Trading Dunn, unless it's for some GREAT GREAT GREAT pitching, just won't fix that without causing even bigger problems in the offense.

flyer85
07-30-2007, 11:24 AM
I know all about Cordero's numbers.

His BPI's(low KK/B for a closer, middling BB rate and high HR rate) ... scream for the Reds to stay away.

flyer85
07-30-2007, 11:25 AM
Trading Dunn, unless it's for some GREAT GREAT GREAT pitching, just won't fix that without causing even bigger problems in the offense.Which is the crux of the problem, the Reds are light years from having the pitching(both starting and relieving) that they need to compete.

RedLegSuperStar
07-30-2007, 11:28 AM
Apparently Tim Kurkjian is reporting that a deal between the Nats and Reds could get done by the deadline tomorrow involving Chad Cordero and Jon Rauch to Cincinnati in exchange for Adam Dunn.

BRM
07-30-2007, 11:31 AM
Apparently Tim Kurkjian is reporting that a deal between the Nats and Reds could get done by the deadline tomorrow involving Chad Cordero and Jon Rauch to Cincinnati in exchange for Adam Dunn.

RedsZone will explode...

RedLegSuperStar
07-30-2007, 11:32 AM
If a deal with the Nationals takes place.. I hope it doesn't because we need starting pitching even though Cordero and Rauch have put up outstanding numbers for a team with one of the worse records. But I would hope Krivsky turns Rauch around for a OF'er or Starter.

RedLegSuperStar
07-30-2007, 11:33 AM
RedsZone will explode...

Yeah.. so true!

NC Reds
07-30-2007, 11:37 AM
Crap article.

Krivsky should be fired for even considering that trade.

Dunn is not the problem in this organization. Blow up the player development side of the organization and bring in some people that can identify and develop young pitching talent.

Without Dunn, this offense and team will be unwatchable.

Red Leader
07-30-2007, 11:45 AM
If a deal with the Nationals takes place.. I hope it doesn't because we need starting pitching even though Cordero and Rauch have put up outstanding numbers for a team with one of the worse records. But I would hope Krivsky turns Rauch around for a OF'er or Starter.

That would be a decent enough step, but I'd rather see the Reds hold onto Rauch and make him their closer and trade Cordero, who likely will have more value in the market, not to mention he's not a good fit (as flyer85 has said), for a SP. It'd also be nice if Wayne could get Chris Marrero and another prospect for Drew Stubbs in this trade, IMO.

Dunn + Stubbs
for
Cordero, Rauch, Marrero, + prospect

Still, scares the crap out of me.

Chip R
07-30-2007, 11:53 AM
Apparently Tim Kurkjian is reporting that a deal between the Nats and Reds could get done by the deadline tomorrow involving Chad Cordero and Jon Rauch to Cincinnati in exchange for Adam Dunn.


If one or both are found out to be injured, that's be perfect. :help:

registerthis
07-30-2007, 11:54 AM
Apparently Tim Kurkjian is reporting that a deal between the Nats and Reds could get done by the deadline tomorrow involving Chad Cordero and Jon Rauch to Cincinnati in exchange for Adam Dunn.

That would be insanity of the highest degree.

BRM
07-30-2007, 11:55 AM
That would be insanity of the highest degree.

I take it you don't like that return either.

registerthis
07-30-2007, 11:57 AM
I take it you don't like that return either.

No more ex-Nats relief pitchers!

Good grief...

RedsManRick
07-30-2007, 11:57 AM
Which is the crux of the problem, the Reds are light years from having the pitching(both starting and relieving) that they need to compete.

And trading Adam Dunn, without it being a significant step towards addressing that problem, only creates another gaping hole. The idea that we can somehow get better value out of $13M than Adam Dunn suggests people forget how much good production costs in FA.

Carlos Lee, a pretty decent equivalent to Dunn in terms of both offense and defense, took a 16.67M/year deal which was not the richest offer he received. Aubrey Huff got nearly 7M per. Jay Payton got 5M.

Pitching wise, Ted Lilly got 10M per. Let's say we traded away Dunn and signed Ted Lilly instead. Let's say Ted Lilly takes Belisle's spot in the rotation. Over the course of the year, we will have allowed about 35 fewer runs if Lilly keeps up his current pace. That assumes we get one of the best performing guys out there. What if we gave 6M to Dannys Baez (5.86 ERA)?

There is an argument to be made for dealing Dunn. I certainly see a scenario where the team improves through a smart trade return and saved money well spent. However, it's not going to be easy to even break even. That's not even close to a guarantee. The idea that somehow dealing Dunn allows us to do the things necessary to fix the team is just completely off the mark. A smart Dunn trade maybe gets us 10-15% of the way there. That's if it doesn't actually set us back...

The advantage of having your money is a reliable source of production is that there are less things to screw up. For us to "win" a trade Dunn scenario, we'd need 3-4 things to go right. If any of them fail, we break even, and if multiple pieces fail (bad returned, poorly invested saved money, etc.) then we lose ground. The idea that Dunn is the hindrance holding this team back is just misguided at best, and dangerous at worst.

Tom Servo
07-30-2007, 11:58 AM
Apparently Tim Kurkjian is reporting that a deal between the Nats and Reds could get done by the deadline tomorrow involving Chad Cordero and Jon Rauch to Cincinnati in exchange for Adam Dunn.
Oh good god.

flyer85
07-30-2007, 12:01 PM
And trading Adam Dunn, without it being a significant step towards addressing that problem, only creates another gaping hole. The idea that we can somehow get better value out of $13M than Adam Dunn suggests people forget how much good production costs in FA.

Carlos Lee, a pretty decent equivalent to Dunn in terms of both offense and defense, took a 16.67M/year deal which was not the richest offer he received. Aubrey Huff got nearly 7M per. Jay Payton got 5M.

Pitching wise, Ted Lilly got 10M per. Let's say we traded away Dunn and signed Ted Lilly instead. Let's say Ted Lilly takes Belisle's spot in the rotation. Over the course of the year, we will have allowed about 35 fewer runs if Lilly keeps up his current pace. That assumes we get one of the best performing guys out there. What if we gave 6M to Dannys Baez (5.86 ERA)?

There is an argument to be made for dealing Dunn. I certainly see a scenario where the team improves through a smart trade return and saved money well spent. However, it's not going to be easy to even break even. That's not even close to a guarantee. The idea that somehow dealing Dunn allows us to do the things necessary to fix the team is just completely off the mark. A smart Dunn trade maybe gets us 10-15% of the way there. That's if it doesn't actually set us back...

The advantage of having your money is a reliable source of production is that there are less things to screw up. For us to "win" a trade Dunn scenario, we'd need 3-4 things to go right. If any of them fail, we break even, and if multiple pieces fail (bad returned, poorly invested saved money, etc.) then we lose ground. The idea that Dunn is the hindrance holding this team back is just misguided.and that is assuming you deal Dunn for guys who are in their "cheap" years. Cordero is likely to cost $6-7M next year. Won't be much left over.

BuckeyeRedleg
07-30-2007, 12:03 PM
Somebody. Anybody. Please keep Wayne away from all phones for the next two days!

Johnny Footstool
07-30-2007, 12:08 PM
Rauch's road numbers are ugly this season: 25 IP, 5.76 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 15 K.

As stated before, he's a flyball pitcher with a mediocre K/9. Put him in GABP, and his numbers would be Majewski-like.

KoryMac5
07-30-2007, 12:09 PM
Rauch definitely would fit in with the rest of the blowpen. His ERA with runners on is terrible with runners in scoring position it is even worse. 10.13 ERA RISP w /2 outs, Stanton seems to have found a friend.

RedsManRick
07-30-2007, 12:10 PM
and that is assuming you deal Dunn for guys who are in their "cheap" years. Cordero is likely to cost $6-7M next year. Won't be much left over.

Precisely, unless we plan on flipping him, Cordero is quite possibly the stupidest return we could get.

MartyFan
07-30-2007, 12:11 PM
I read the article by Wheeler earlier this morning and have to say, I agree.

IslandRed
07-30-2007, 12:19 PM
There is an argument to be made for dealing Dunn. I certainly see a scenario where the team improves through a smart trade return and saved money well spent. However, it's not going to be easy to even break even. That's not even close to a guarantee. The idea that somehow dealing Dunn allows us to do the things necessary to fix the team is just completely off the mark. A smart Dunn trade maybe gets us 10-15% of the way there. That's if it doesn't actually set us back...

Here's the painful truth as I see it:

1. Whether Dunn stays with the team next year is our decision;
2. Whether Dunn stays with the Reds beyond 2008 is largely his decision.

You are absolutely correct when you say it's not going to be easy to break even on a Dunn trade. History has shown us that. What we forget sometimes is that we may not have a choice. We don't get to control Dunn for as long as we like; if he decides he'd rather escape Cincinnati and go play for Houston or Texas or with his old buddy Kearns after 2008, there's not a dadgum thing we can do about it. We can put a good offer, maybe even the best offer, on the table; in the end, it's still his choice. And if he does that, we get two draft picks. Good draft picks, but still draft picks.

So it comes down to two questions:

1. Can we legitimately claim to be a contender in 2008?
2. Does Dunn want to stay beyond 2008?

If the answer to both is "no" or "probably not," then he needs to be traded. Maybe not now, maybe later. But it's entirely possible that we won't break even in talent, even if we select the right offer. I don't like it either, but that's life in the free-agent era.

Kc61
07-30-2007, 12:19 PM
I read the article by Wheeler earlier this morning and have to say, I agree.

I'm not sure what the right decision is, but I think this is an extremely fine article that sets out the issues very well. It's perhaps the only article I've read that discusses the Dunn situation both in terms of his performance and his contract, and discusses both factually.

FWIW, I think Dunn has played his last game as a Red. The team, needing a new direction, will opt for some young players and Dunn's salary slot over Dunn's potential going forward.

If Dunn played a different position, say third base, middle infield or catcher, I think the decision might go the other way. But as a corner outfielder, the Reds do have Bruce, they have Hamilton (who should be a corner guy), they still have Griffey, even Votto has played out there. I think they will decide that Dunn's position will be amply covered and they should use his value to get pitchers and other commodities.

Dunn's made the decision hard because he's had a good year. He certainly is a major player. Hopefully, if the trade does happen, his good year will result in a good return.

flyer85
07-30-2007, 12:22 PM
But it's entirely possible that a return of Cordero and Rauch is about as good as a trade would get.
If that is true then the Reds would likely do better with draft picks. Neither Cordero(especially) or Rauch will be cheap moving forward and there are a lot of question makes about how well their stuff(both extreme FB pitchers) would play in GABP.

RedsBaron
07-30-2007, 12:22 PM
If one or both are found out to be injured, that's be perfect. :help:

Wayne should have Jim Bowden assure him that both relief pitchers are healthy. :rolleyes:

deltachi8
07-30-2007, 12:24 PM
If that is true then the Reds would likely do better with draft picks. Neither Cordero(especially) or Rauch will be cheap moving forward and there are a lot of question makes about how well their stuff(both extreme FB pitchers) would play in GABP.

I agree 100%.

Kepp Dunn, pick up the '08 option. If you can't work out an extension and the best offer you can get is Cordero/Rauch type, then take the draft picks.

IslandRed
07-30-2007, 12:25 PM
If that is true then the Reds would likely do better with draft picks. Neither Cordero(especially) or Rauch will be cheap moving forward and there are a lot of question makes about how well their stuff(both extreme FB pitchers) would play in GABP.

Probably. I edited my post because I reconsidered the notion; I'd forgotten that Cordero is about to go into his arbitration years.

Red Leader
07-30-2007, 12:26 PM
I agree 100%.

Kepp Dunn, pick up the '08 option. If you can't work out an extension and the best offer you can get is Cordero/Rauch type, then take the draft picks.

I'm in agreement with that.

traderumor
07-30-2007, 12:26 PM
Cordero and Rauch would not be good return for Dunn. I hope that Kirkjian doesn't know what he's talking about.

schroomytunes
07-30-2007, 12:27 PM
Well if we do a deal with Washington than this is the trade proposal that I would make with them:

Reds trade:
1)Adam Dunn- the Nats get their big slugger for the new ballpark and Dunn is reunited with Kearns which should help him re-up the contract.

2)Drew Stubbs-The Nats get our 2006 #1 pick

Washington trades:

1)Jon Rauch-we get a guy that can be a late inning reliever who can fill in the 7-9 innings.

2)Ryan Church-he takes over in LF for the departed Dunn

3)Chris Marrero-A+ prospect who will in the future give us a solid OF when teamed with Bruce and Hamilton.

flyer85
07-30-2007, 12:27 PM
I agree 100%.

Kepp Dunn, pick up the '08 option. If you can't work out an extension and the best offer you can get is Cordero/Rauch type, then take the draft picks.The Reds could still decline the option, offer arb(will be turned down) and get the picks.

NJReds
07-30-2007, 12:27 PM
Apparently Tim Kurkjian is reporting that a deal between the Nats and Reds could get done by the deadline tomorrow involving Chad Cordero and Jon Rauch to Cincinnati in exchange for Adam Dunn.

Not again...

http://www.overworm.com/NothingToSeeHere/NTSH%20Images/CharlieBrownLucyFootball.gif

flyer85
07-30-2007, 12:28 PM
Cordero and Rauch would not be good return for Dunn. I hope that Kirkjian doesn't know what he's talking about.you have to realize from which side he is getting his information.

Chip R
07-30-2007, 12:28 PM
Wayne should have Jim Bowden assure him that both relief pitchers are healthy. :rolleyes:


Well, that would work for Wayne. :rolleyes:

IslandRed
07-30-2007, 12:31 PM
you have to realize from which side he is getting his information.

Good point.

fearofpopvol1
07-30-2007, 12:33 PM
I hate to say it, but I think Wheeler is right. I like Dunn, but this team needs a big change. They need a shakeup because the current team is not producing and they're not going to produce. You can trade Hatte, Conine, Weathers etc, but those guys are simply not going to net players that are going to dramatically improve and change the ballclub, at least anytime soon.

Now, I'm not advocating that the Reds trade Dunn for peanuts either though. The Rauch/Cordero trade doesn't really appear to be a fair one. I'd like to see the Reds net an "A" type pitching prospect and maybe one reliever. I think if they could get Cordero and Marrero, that would be a great return for Dunn. If they can get Rauch too, that's a bonus.

KronoRed
07-30-2007, 12:35 PM
RedsZone will explode...

Yep, and 50% of it will be people having a giddy fest because "awful" Adam Dunn is gone and the winning can now commence!

If the deals on the table are bad then DON'T DO A DEAL, decline the option offer arbitration and get picks, don't take junk because it's the best you can get

deltachi8
07-30-2007, 12:35 PM
The Reds could still decline the option, offer arb(will be turned down) and get the picks.

True.

At least picking up the option gives them anothe rwindow to make a deal worth more than two draft picks.

traderumor
07-30-2007, 12:36 PM
you have to realize from which side he is getting his information.Not sure what you're getting at. Are you saying this might be Jimbo wishful thinking? Surely, WK would not go fishing in a known polluted stream with a career defining trade?

KronoRed
07-30-2007, 12:36 PM
Also, if you're going to trade Dunn then SP prospects should one number one on the list of things to demand back

RedsManRick
07-30-2007, 12:37 PM
Here's the painful truth as I see it:

1. Whether Dunn stays with the team next year is our decision;
2. Whether Dunn stays with the Reds beyond 2008 is largely his decision.

You are absolutely correct when you say it's not going to be easy to break even on a Dunn trade. History has shown us that. What we forget sometimes is that we may not have a choice. We don't get to control Dunn for as long as we like; if he decides he'd rather escape Cincinnati and go play for Houston or Texas or with his old buddy Kearns after 2008, there's not a dadgum thing we can do about it. We can put a good offer, maybe even the best offer, on the table; in the end, it's still his choice. And if he does that, we get two draft picks. Good draft picks, but still draft picks.

So it comes down to two questions:

1. Can we legitimately claim to be a contender in 2008?
2. Does Dunn want to stay beyond 2008?

If the answer to both is "no" or "probably not," then he needs to be traded. Maybe not now, maybe later. But it's entirely possible that we won't break even in talent, even if we select the right offer. I don't like it either, but that's life in the free-agent era.

Good post IslandRed. I think you're right. Bottom line is that Dunn will likely be moving on in the next 18 months. So, as you say, the question becomes how do we make the best of the situation?

I guess my bigger concern is not the question of trade/don't trade. Clearly, unless Dunn signs a long term deal, it's an issue of doing the trade right.

If a Cordero and Rauch return is something Krivsky is even considering, then I have very little faith that Krivsky understands how to build a winning team.

Red Leader
07-30-2007, 12:39 PM
As I see it, the Reds have two options.

1) Build on what they have - this would be the scenario where they add players to the base that they have (Dunn, Griffey, Harang, Arroyo, Phillips) and increase payroll, somewhat dramatically to add talent to the talent they already have.

2) Clean house. Trade basically everything they have worth while (Dunn, Griffey, Encarnacion, Conine, Stanton, Coffey, Weathers, Hatteberg) and establish a new "young" core of players around Phillips, Hamilton and Harang and load up on prospects in the minors.

I don't care which option they choose as long as they don't choose Option 3, choosing part of Option 1 and part of Option 2. If I had to put money on it, I'd bet they go with Option 3 and we really won't make any significant advances forward..

flyer85
07-30-2007, 12:42 PM
Also, if you're going to trade Dunn then SP prospects should one number one on the list of things to demand backwith the high attrition of pitching prospects and the overall dearth of talent in the minors I wouldn't mind seeing the Reds get back a good position player.

I still think Dunn could wind up in Arizona, it makes too much sense for both teams. Dunn for Quentin, Nippert and a minor leaguer.

KronoRed
07-30-2007, 12:46 PM
with the high attrition of pitching prospects and the overall dearth of talent in the minors I wouldn't mind seeing the Reds get back a good position player.


That's why I want the Reds to hoard as many SP prospects as possible.

pedro
07-30-2007, 12:51 PM
yuck.

BCubb2003
07-30-2007, 12:54 PM
It's an endless argument but I have a question about Dunn and walks. We often talk about how Dunn has little protection in the lineup and doesn't get good pitches to hit, and other teams would rather pitch to Conine or Gonzales or whoever's hitting behind him. That suggests that within the context of an inning, other teams and even RedsZone at times consider a walk to Dunn to be less effective offensively. An aid to the defensive team, in other words.

Of course, that still comes down to whether Dunn can or should do something himself about not getting good pitches to hit.

RedLegSuperStar
07-30-2007, 12:56 PM
That would be a decent enough step, but I'd rather see the Reds hold onto Rauch and make him their closer and trade Cordero, who likely will have more value in the market, not to mention he's not a good fit (as flyer85 has said), for a SP.

Maybe deal Cordero to Boston for Coco Crisp and prospect?

would getting Crisp, Rauch, and prospect be a fair return for Dunn?

Falls City Beer
07-30-2007, 12:57 PM
Isn't Cordero nursing some chronic injury? It seems like I heard that on here.

Regardless--even if he's healthy, that is an atrocious return for Dunn which will do next to nothing to offset Dunn's run production.

Chip R
07-30-2007, 01:00 PM
Anyone think Dunn would be claimed if he passed through waivers after tomorrow if a deal wasn't worked out by then?

KronoRed
07-30-2007, 01:03 PM
I'm sure at least 10 teams would put in a claim.

wheels
07-30-2007, 01:11 PM
This is looking ominous.

I can't believe Wayne would consummate another deal with Washington. I don't think that even DanO would be this stupid.

flyer85
07-30-2007, 01:12 PM
Anyone think Dunn would be claimed if he passed through waivers Yep

RedsBaron
07-30-2007, 01:17 PM
Isn't Cordero nursing some chronic injury? It seems like I heard that on here.



If he is, I'm sure Jim Bowden will volunteer the information.

bucksfan2
07-30-2007, 01:27 PM
If the reds truely cared about developing a winning club in the future the one move that would be made is trading Jr. The likes of Hatty, Conine, Wathers, Lohse would also have played their last game in cincinnati. I would also think they would do their best to move Stanton and Freel. However this team is not going to take the PR hit by trading Jr, Freel, or Hatty. They are not going to trade Weathers because they like hanging in that slightly sub .500 mark year in year out. They probably are going to trade their young star in Dunn. Conine probably will be with the team the entire year because they aren't sure if Votto can hit lefties and Hatty will remain with the club because he doesn't cost much next year. I have a message to the reds brass. Blow it up, it isn't working and this current method hasn't seen a playoff since 96.

CTA513
07-30-2007, 01:44 PM
Yep, and 50% of it will be people having a giddy fest because "awful" Adam Dunn is gone and the winning can now commence!





The Reds will win the world series every year after Dunn is traded.

:thumbup:

Ltlabner
07-30-2007, 01:44 PM
# YEAR NAME AGE PA EqA OBP SLG VORP RAR RAP
7. 2007 Scott Hatteberg 37 314 .300 .406 .474 20.4 22.1 7.6
15.2007 Jeff Conine 41 209 .263 .337 .416 4.8 7.0 -3.8
6. 2007 Brandon Phillips 26 464 .267 .323 .473 18.8 18.3 3.2
14.2007 Edwin Encarnacion 24 350 .249 .335 .366 1.2 6.5 -7.3
11.2007 Alex Gonzalez 30 339 .246 .297 .444 6.6 5.6 -3.2
14.2007 David Ross 30 278 .224 .260 .404 -2.3 -1.7 -6.3
5. 2007 Adam Dunn 27 432 .298 .361 .542 27.3 31.8 14.9
4. 2007 Josh Hamilton 26 240 .298 .371 .543 17.8 17.5 9.1
17.2007 Ryan Freel 31 295 .231 .307 .349 -4.2 0.2 -11.2
1. 2007 Ken Griffey Jr. 37 420 .306 .386 .526 29.8 33.8 17.0

My father was on the trade Dunn band-wagon. I asked him a simple question and let him chew on it for a week without hounding him or trying to pound him into submission. I simply asked the question many of us have asked, "if you trade Dunn, how do you replace his 40+ HR and 100+ RBI production?".

Yesterday on the way to the game he shared that he had thought about it and the light-bulb went off. We need Dunn because you can't get enough production in return to make it worthwhile.

I showed him this list of Reds position guys ranked by VORP compared to the other position guys around the NL (at least 200 PA's). Which only further highlights the problem. Hatte and Griffy can't reasonably be counted on for the same production in 2008. Hamilton is great but may well have the durability of JD Drew. EE's a hugh question mark and Freel is either going to be traded or in traction. Ross and AGon are what they are.

I've said it before here. Nobody involved in the Dunn saga is going to look good before it's all over. Unless the Reds excersize the option, sign him to a reasonable 3 year deal, it's likely to get ugly.

flyer85
07-30-2007, 01:46 PM
from BP today


The Nats seem to have pulled back from the market, as their asking price on Chad Cordero and Jon Rauch proved to be too high for every interested team.

BRM
07-30-2007, 01:48 PM
That's good news if true.

Red Leader
07-30-2007, 01:51 PM
So, Leatherpants is saying the Reds are offering Dunn for Cordero and Rauch in hopes that it drives the price of those two relievers up. Amazing. Even when that guy is the GM of another team, I still hate him.

KronoRed
07-30-2007, 01:53 PM
Wayne will sweeten the deal with EE and Bailey ;)

red-in-la
07-30-2007, 01:58 PM
100+ RBI's? Huh?

101 and 102 as his highs doesn't, IMHO, result in a guarentee of a future of 100+ RBI's.

I just think Dunn's "future" production is a huge assumption AND is short lived as has been well pointed out.

As to value, I think the point has been completely missed.

NOBODY is trading for Dunn for his time.....they are trading for him for a ring.....a ONE TIME chance for a ring. So, HIS value IMHO is not just high but OFF THE CHART.

I've made my point about the Angels need. The Dodgers have a similar (but no DH) need even though not a great fit.

flyer85
07-30-2007, 01:59 PM
I've made my point about the Angels need. The Dodgers have a similar (but no DH) need even though not a great fit.He would be the best fit with the Dbacks or Cubs.

Roy Tucker
07-30-2007, 02:23 PM
I feel that the view of this proposed trade we're getting is Bowden-slanted. He was always pretty leaky when it comes to the press.

I fear that we're not going to get equivalent value in a Dunn trade.

RANDY IN INDY
07-30-2007, 02:26 PM
Any trade of Dunn to the Nats better include Zimmerman in return.

flyer85
07-30-2007, 02:27 PM
I fear that we're not going to get equivalent value in a Dunn trade.In the short term that is a given. Hopefully its a deal that looks good in 2009. The key is getting talent they can control through inexpensive years.

red-in-la
07-30-2007, 02:28 PM
If half of Dunn's walks were singles.....his RBI's would a bit higher which is part of the line that might put him in that same sentance as Prince Albert.....which is what I think many of us have been waiting for.

Chip R
07-30-2007, 02:29 PM
I just wonder who the media is going to pick on if Dunn goes.

NJReds
07-30-2007, 02:29 PM
I just wonder who the media is going to pick on if Dunn goes.

EE

BRM
07-30-2007, 02:29 PM
I just wonder who the media is going to pick on if Dunn goes.

Edwin Encarnacion.

BuckeyeRedleg
07-30-2007, 02:29 PM
I just wonder who the media is going to pick on if Dunn goes.

Jay Bruce.

BRM
07-30-2007, 02:30 PM
Jay Bruce.

His K's are likely to cause some angst.

flyer85
07-30-2007, 02:32 PM
Jay Bruce.or Votto.

Both are going to high K batters in the majors. And nothing is worse than Ks, it trumps real production. Just listen to Marty or Chris ... and they are who the average Joe fan listens to. They use the comments from the Reds talking heads to form their opinions.

Tom Servo
07-30-2007, 02:33 PM
I just wonder who the media is going to pick on if Dunn goes.
http://dugout.progressiveboink.com/archive/322exclusive3.htm

Chris Sabo!

RANDY IN INDY
07-30-2007, 02:33 PM
I wish the Reds had the kind of real production that nets wins.

Ltlabner
07-30-2007, 02:34 PM
Just listen to Marty or Chris ... and they are who the average Joe fan listens to. They use the comments from the Reds talking heads to form their opinions.

Or their little league coaches, or their bar room friends, or their fathers, or just the general perception that a K is the worst thing this side of killing puppies.

BRM
07-30-2007, 02:34 PM
I wish the Reds had the kind of real production that nets wins.

The Reds have lacked pitching production for quite some time.

Jpup
07-30-2007, 02:36 PM
I think any deal the Reds could do with Dunn should include Brandon Wood coming back. Now that guy is going to be a player, but I still wouldn't trade Dunn.

RANDY IN INDY
07-30-2007, 02:36 PM
The Reds have lacked pitching production for quite some time.

Now that is enlightening.

BRM
07-30-2007, 02:37 PM
Now that is enlightening.

I was simply agreeing with you. Just in a different way.

flyer85
07-30-2007, 02:39 PM
I wish the Reds had the kind of real production that nets wins.They do from 2B, LF, 1B(from the LH side) and RF.

It's the lack of pitching that kills them.

If the Cubs would send Marmol and Gallagher, they can have Dunn and if I was the Reds I would take Jones back(put him in LH) for another prospect because Jones can be dealt after August 1st.

RANDY IN INDY
07-30-2007, 02:46 PM
They do from 2B, LF, 1B(from the LH side) and RF.

It's the lack of pitching that kills them.

If the Cubs would send Marmol and Gallagher, they can have Dunn and if I was the Reds I would take Jones back(put him in LH) for another prospect because Jones can be dealt after August 1st.

Interesting that two of those productive players are a result of Wayne Krivsky.

BRM
07-30-2007, 02:46 PM
They do from 2B, LF, 1B(from the LH side) and RF.

It's the lack of pitching that kills them.


That was my point. I apologize for offending Randy. I didn't mean it that way.

red-in-la
07-30-2007, 02:47 PM
or Votto.

Both are going to high K batters in the majors. And nothing is worse than Ks, it trumps real production. Just listen to Marty or Chris ... and they are who the average Joe fan listens to. They use the comments from the Reds talking heads to form their opinions.

Maybe you didn't mean it this way, but isn't this a bit condescending? Those average fans are the ones paying the bills. You can fit the non-average fans in a grade school auditorium.

RANDY IN INDY
07-30-2007, 02:48 PM
Not offended, BRM, but that is probably the most obvious thing about this franchise for a long, long time.

flyer85
07-30-2007, 02:49 PM
Those average fans are the ones paying the bills. and they are the ones that will eventually end up booing Votto and Bruce.

red-in-la
07-30-2007, 02:50 PM
and they are the ones that will eventually end up booing Votto and Bruce.

Agreed! :D

Booooo!!!!!! ;)

flyer85
07-30-2007, 02:50 PM
Interesting that two of those productive players are a result of Wayne Krivsky.but he is also responsible for quite a number of non-productive ones as well.

RANDY IN INDY
07-30-2007, 02:51 PM
and they are the ones that will eventually end up booing Votto and Bruce.

And cheering them when they do well. That is the nature of the average fan.

flyer85
07-30-2007, 02:53 PM
And cheering them when they do well. That is the nature of the average fan.They are going to strike out a lot more than they do well. That is the nature of the game. They will get a grace period but when you have the mouthpieces of your organization running down your own product ... it is only a matter of time.

RedsManRick
07-30-2007, 02:56 PM
Maybe you didn't mean it this way, but isn't this a bit condescending? Those average fans are the ones paying the bills. You can fit the non-average fans in a grade school auditorium.

That doesn't mean their opinions should count more in deciding the correct way to build a winning team. Business leadership isn't a democracy. Joe Fan pays to be entertained, not to understand the hows and whys. The price of a ticket doesn't include the right for non-critical analysis to be considered beyond it's own merit.

flyer85
07-30-2007, 03:00 PM
Fans pay their own money. They can boo whomever they choose, that is their right.

I have never booed anyone, I have too great an appreciation for how incredibly hard the game of baseball actually is. I also am not going to be swayed by an opinion based on some fallacious appeal to authority.

Jpup
07-30-2007, 03:02 PM
I will say that I have been to about a dozen Reds games in the last 3 years and I have never once heard anyone boo Adam Dunn. I usually go on Sundays though.

BRM
07-30-2007, 03:03 PM
Not offended, BRM, but that is probably the most obvious thing about this franchise for a long, long time.

I know. It was certainly a "no duh" comment.

RANDY IN INDY
07-30-2007, 03:04 PM
They are going to strike out a lot more than they do well. That is the nature of the game. They will get a grace period but when you have the mouthpieces of your organization running down your own product ... it is only a matter of time.

Fans reactions are very dependent on winning. I think the frustration that mounts over the course of several losing seasons starts rearing its ugly head at the easiest targets. Strikeouts, errors, laziness, boneheads, pitchers that surrender a lot of runs and leads, and managers are some of those easy targets.

Adam Dunn would not be nearly the lightening rod that he is if the Reds were winning. I have found in my coaching experience that my moves are much less questioned and the disposition of my parents is much nicer when my team is winning.

RANDY IN INDY
07-30-2007, 03:05 PM
I know. It was certainly a "no duh" comment.

:D:beerme:

red-in-la
07-30-2007, 03:05 PM
I am not sure who are the uninformed people you are talking about. This started out as talking about the media.

Some in the media are lacking insight.....but frankly guys, I trust what Chris Welsh says more than anybody here in Redszone.....sorry. Just my opinion.

BRM
07-30-2007, 03:05 PM
I have found in my coaching experience that my moves are much less questioned and the disposition of my parents is much nicer when my team is winning.

Isn't that the truth? Even at the little league level, that seems to hold true.

flyer85
07-30-2007, 03:07 PM
Adam Dunn would not be nearly the lightening rod that he is if the Reds were winning.There are a number of reasons the Reds are a losing club ... and none of them are named Dunn. He has become a target for the sole reason that official and unofficial mouthpieces of the have chosen to make him a target.

RANDY IN INDY
07-30-2007, 03:08 PM
Isn't that the truth? Even at the little league level, that seems to hold true.

I kind of laugh at how I can become a genius or an idiot in the course of no time at all.

Thing is, I know that I am no more the genius when I win than when I lose. I still coach, exactly the same way.

M2
07-30-2007, 03:08 PM
If half of Dunn's walks were singles.....his RBI's would a bit higher which is part of the line that might put him in that same sentance as Prince Albert.....which is what I think many of us have been waiting for.

In what universe does swing at balls out of the strikezone make sense? Albert Pujols doesn't do it.

Dunn shouldn't be looking his walks into anything but walks. Instead what he should be doing is trying to turn more of his outs into walks and hits.

M2
07-30-2007, 03:10 PM
There are a number of reasons the Reds are a losing club ... and none of them are named Dunn. He has become a target for the sole reason that official and unofficial mouthpieces of the have chosen to make him a target.

Exactly. It's the greatest sports fallacy in the book. If the team isn't winning, it's the fault of the best player, not the lousy players.

Ltlabner
07-30-2007, 03:11 PM
He has become a target for the sole reason that official and unofficial mouthpieces of the have chosen to make him a target.

The highest paid players on the team are always the target for fan moaning and complaining. This is not something that has been invented by Marty B, nor is exclusive to Cincinnati.

Jr is slagged for his injuries. Pat Burrell and Bobby Abreu are and were hated in Philly. Arod is derided. Jason Bay is a worthless bum. It goes on and on.

To say it is soley beause of the "offical and unoffical mouthpieces" (code word: Marty B) is pure and unadultrated crap.

To believe this, you have to belive that no other baseball player was called lazy, harped on because of their strikeouts, had their defense questioned or was called a bum prior to Adam Dunn and Marty Brenneman.

gonelong
07-30-2007, 03:11 PM
Some in the media are lacking insight.....but frankly guys, I trust what Chris Welsh says more than anybody here in Redszone.....sorry. Just my opinion.

I'd be interested in having a few beers and a off-the-record discussion about the Reds with Chris Welsh. I'd say there is a decent chance he might have some real insight to pass along.

Chris Welsh calling the game on the tube has practially nothing to offer. Seeing as this is the only avenue I have to base what Welsh is willing to share with me, I'd bury him deep on my list behind many Redszoners of whom I'd go to for an opinion about the Reds.

GL

red-in-la
07-30-2007, 03:14 PM
In what universe does swing at balls out of the strikezone make sense? Albert Pujols doesn't do it.

I was referring to a point made in a previous post that if half of Dunn's walks were singles, his line would be a .312 BA.

I said if he hit a single instead a walk in many of those occassions, he would have gotten RBI's.

Take a .312 BA, 40+ HR's and 125-130+ RBI's and I am not sure how many people would still be wanting to trade Dunn and would be questioning his strike out totals and his salary.

MartyFan
07-30-2007, 03:15 PM
Exactly. It's the greatest sports fallacy in the book. If the team isn't winning, it's the fault of the best player, not the lousy players.

Amen!

Get rid of em all!

KronoRed
07-30-2007, 03:16 PM
Welcome again friends to what would Adam Dunn's bat avg be if you turned his bases empty walks into singles

Today's answer! .312

flyer85
07-30-2007, 03:16 PM
I trust what Chris Welsh says more than anybody here in Redszone.....sorry. Just my opinion.Why? When it comes to things that can be verified through objective analysis I would say trust no opinion and verify it for yourself.

I would trust him in the areas which has to do with instruction on how to do thing properly at a fundamental level.

Baseball is an incredibly hard game to watch and process what one has seen. When you realize that a big deal is made between a .260 hitter and a .280 hitter even though it works out to a difference of a hit every two weeks. If they didn't keep stats no one would be able to tell the difference between the two.

Ltlabner
07-30-2007, 03:17 PM
I was referring to a point made in a previous post that if half of Dunn's walks were singles, his line would be a .312 BA.

I said if he hit a single instead a walk in many of those occassions, he would have gotten RBI's.

Take a .312 BA, 40+ HR's and 125-130+ RBI's and I am not sure how many people would still be wanting to trade Dunn and would be questioning his strike out totals and his salary.

By the way, the post you referenced was in responce to a post I made. I questioned why the original article made it sound like getting a bunch of walks was a bad thing. I then (sarcastially) commented that if only some of his walks were singles then they might count for something.

wheels
07-30-2007, 03:17 PM
I was referring to a point made in a previous post that if half of Dunn's walks were singles, his line would be a .312 BA.

I said if he hit a single instead a walk in many of those occassions, he would have gotten RBI's.

Take a .312 BA, 40+ HR's and 125-130+ RBI's and I am not sure how many people would still be wanting to trade Dunn and would be questioning his strike out totals and his salary.

So you're saying a few more singles would translate to twenty or more RBI?

How do you figure?

RANDY IN INDY
07-30-2007, 03:18 PM
There are a number of reasons the Reds are a losing club ... and none of them are named Dunn. He has become a target for the sole reason that official and unofficial mouthpieces of the have chosen to make him a target.

Sure, there might be a small group of people who base their opinions on the "mouthpieces," as you call them but for me, you really question the intelligence of a great number of folks to think on their own, and as "red-in-la" also responded, I find that very condescending.

I would have to agree with Ltabner's view of that theory.

flyer85
07-30-2007, 03:18 PM
I then (sarcastially) commented that if only some of his walks were singles then they might count for something.If they were bunt singles they would count for even more. :beerme:

BRM
07-30-2007, 03:19 PM
If they were bunt singles they would count for even more. :beerme:
What's a sac fly worth?

Red Leader
07-30-2007, 03:20 PM
What's a sac fly worth?

double word score? :dunno:

red-in-la
07-30-2007, 03:21 PM
I'd be interested in having a few beers and a off-the-record discussion about the Reds with Chris Welsh. I'd say there is a decent chance he might have some real insight to pass along.

Chris Welsh calling the game on the tube has practially nothing to offer. Seeing as this is the only avenue I have to base what Welsh is willing to share with me, I'd bury him deep on my list behind many Redszoners of whom I'd go to for an opinion about the Reds.

GL

Well then I guess we must have a few 9 year ML veterans here at Redszone. The fact that Chris Welsh is on TV makes him a fairly articulate guy......that takes some brains.....and I doubt that any RZ'er has actually played ML baseball.

You are welcome to your list, but mine would put Chris at the very tip-top.

I agree that the bandwidth Welsh is afforded sitting next to GG is limited, especially since GG is seldom at the same game (or at least on the same mental plane).

But I do not see how that make what he says any less useful. :thumbup:

BRM
07-30-2007, 03:21 PM
double word score? :dunno:

Turn 5 homers into sac flies and he's gold.

flyer85
07-30-2007, 03:23 PM
challenging one to think for themself = condescending :rolleyes:

Our society has become one where people let others do the thinking for them without any idea if the persons opinion is an informed one or not.

Don't trust anyone's opinion ... go verify it for yourself in some objective manner.

RANDY IN INDY
07-30-2007, 03:28 PM
challenging one to think for themself = condescending

Now when was that ever said?


Don't trust anyone's opinion

I usually don't. That's why I totally disagree with your asertion that
He (Dunn) has become a target for the sole reason that official and unofficial mouthpieces of the have chosen to make him a target.

I don't think there is any factual evidence that supports that theory.

red-in-la
07-30-2007, 03:33 PM
challenging one to think for themself = condescending :rolleyes:

Our society has become one where people let others do the thinking for them without any idea if the persons opinion is an informed one or not.

Don't trust anyone's opinion ... go verify it for yourself in some objective manner.

Agreed! Again.....

However, they still pay the bills.

I think some of us, for OUR entertainment, treat baseball as a science (I for one do not).....and for sure, much of baseball management treats it as their lives.....so for sure, RZ'ers are closer to management beings than the average fan.....and I think we agree on that point.

One of my worst failings in life (according to my wife) is I am bad at agreeing......when I agree it often sounds like I am fighting.

Anyway, they still pay the bills which was my only point and as such, we need (IMHO) to avoid maybe being a little too critical or sarcastic about the role they (and I really include myself in the they) play.

RedsManRick
07-30-2007, 03:44 PM
I was referring to a point made in a previous post that if half of Dunn's walks were singles, his line would be a .312 BA.

I said if he hit a single instead a walk in many of those occassions, he would have gotten RBI's.

Take a .312 BA, 40+ HR's and 125-130+ RBI's and I am not sure how many people would still be wanting to trade Dunn and would be questioning his strike out totals and his salary.

Now imagine if Juan Castro turned 10% of his outs in HR... Let's say Matt Belisle turns 10% of his flyballs in to strikeouts... we could play this game all day.

Walks come when pitchers don't give you pitches to hit. Swinging at those pitches is a good way to turn your walks in to outs. If Dunn is getting strikes during those BB at bats, then there's not much else he can do, unless of course you think he's taking strikes in hopes of drawing a walk...

The problem with Adam Dunn is that he's not very good at making contact. In fact he downright sucks at it compared to most major leaguers. There is virtually no scenario in which Dunn swinging at more pitches than he already does leads to more production.

He swings at the pitches he can hit well. He tries to hit some others, missing frequently, and watches a lot of the ones that he can't hit regardless.

RedsManRick
07-30-2007, 03:50 PM
However, they still pay the bills.

Anyway, they still pay the bills which was my only point and as such, we need (IMHO) to avoid maybe being a little too critical or sarcastic about the role they (and I really include myself in the they) play.

Can you clarify this point? Beyond admitting that the game as we know it would not exist were it not for the "average fan", I don't see how else this factors in to our discussions.

We aren't management. We don't have to worry about offending the "average fan" if we don't feel they understand the mechanics of how teams win. The "average fan" doesn't come to an independently run team message board. While even among us there quite a number of differences, few, if any of us are average.

Unless somebody is arguing that "average fans" shouldn't be allowed in the park, or should be relegated to worse seats, or something, I don't see any great justice in pointing out that the "average fan" has an understanding of the game that does not lend itself easily to accurate player valuation.

red-in-la
07-30-2007, 05:21 PM
For one, according to the original article, I am an average fan. OK, maybe I am not listening to every talking head on TV because as I have made clear, George Grande is plain embarrassing as a baseball announcer.

But just because none of those average fans are here (I think you would be surprised who read without posting), doesn't make it right to have the attitude or express the words.

red-in-la
07-30-2007, 05:27 PM
Now imagine if Juan Castro turned 10% of his outs in HR... Let's say Matt Belisle turns 10% of his flyballs in to strikeouts... we could play this game all day.

Walks come when pitchers don't give you pitches to hit. Swinging at those pitches is a good way to turn your walks in to outs. If Dunn is getting strikes during those BB at bats, then there's not much else he can do, unless of course you think he's taking strikes in hopes of drawing a walk...

The problem with Adam Dunn is that he's not very good at making contact. In fact he downright sucks at it compared to most major leaguers. There is virtually no scenario in which Dunn swinging at more pitches than he already does leads to more production.

He swings at the pitches he can hit well. He tries to hit some others, missing frequently, and watches a lot of the ones that he can't hit regardless.

I did NOT invent this point.....I agree that it is a bit silly. I responded to it.

But to one of your points, which I have experienced personally......Dunn takes a lot of strikes. And IMHO (as just an average fan) some of those strikes he takes could easily be hit to the left side on a line.....is that a single? Dunnno.......but I think some of them would be and in the instances of which I speak, they would have driven in runs.

There is a lot of debate from Gammons to Chris Welsh and a lot in between of fairly in tuned baseball people would question the real team value of Dunn's 40+ HR's a year. My biggest issue with Dunn is that he is one of the worst LF I have ever seen.....

And I saw Alex Johson play the terrace and I would rate Dunn as just as bad if not worse (Johnson was at least a bit faster than average).

Mario-Rijo
07-30-2007, 06:19 PM
I haven't always been the biggest Dunn supporter and I do believe if the return is right he should be dealt. However this deal for Cordero and Rauch is off the charts moronic. I will then be on the cut loose of Krivsky bandwagon also.

If he cannot plainly see that neither of these guys equate to good performers on this team and especially in this park, then he doesn't know anything close to what I have thought to this point.

The only players Bowden has that have any at all value for me are Zimmerman, Marrero, Collin Ballester, maybe a few others as add on's.

Zimmerman, Marrero, and Ballester

For

Dunn, Freel, Dickerson and Dumatrait

That's about the only kind of deal I would do with Washington.

RedsManRick
07-30-2007, 06:25 PM
But to one of your points, which I have experienced personally......Dunn takes a lot of strikes. And IMHO (as just an average fan) some of those strikes he takes could easily be hit to the left side on a line.....is that a single? Dunnno.......but I think some of them would be and in the instances of which I speak, they would have driven in runs.


Given that, why do you think Dunn did not swing? Do you think he would prefer a walk to a line drive to left? Or maybe he didn't recognize that pitch early enough. Or maybe it was early in the count and he wanted a pitch he could drive instead of one he had to punch to left. I don't know.

But I would hate to assume that Dunn is willing passing up free hits just so that he can walk more. Rather, I think he's swinging when he thinks he can hit the ball well and for whatever reason doesn't think he can drive those pitches that you think he can.

red-in-la
07-30-2007, 06:41 PM
Given that, why do you think Dunn did not swing? Do you think he would prefer a walk to a line drive to left? Or maybe he didn't recognize that pitch early enough. Or maybe it was early in the count and he wanted a pitch he could drive instead of one he had to punch to left. I don't know.

But I would hate to assume that Dunn is willing passing up free hits just so that he can walk more. Rather, I think he's swinging when he thinks he can hit the ball well and for whatever reason doesn't think he can drive those pitches that you think he can.

I cannot tell you what is in Dunn's mind. I just know he takes a lot of strikes and he very seldom hits the ball the other way.

My concern is that he narrows his "I will swing zone" even when he has two strikes, down to pitches that he can hit into the Ohio River. Is this in his mind? How do I know? But, the better hitters that also hit HR's see to also go the other way, which Dunn doesn't seem to do anymore.

I don't know if there is a stat for this, but I have seen Dunn take a lot of called 3rd strikes. Almost as if HIS idea of HIS strike zone is smaller than pretty much all of the umpires in the league.

I can see a power hitter taking maybe one shot at getting a pitch for the only purpose of hitting it out, but at some point he has to guard the strike zone and shorten his swing. Dunn, as far as I can see doesn't do this.

IslandRed
07-30-2007, 06:49 PM
Given that, why do you think Dunn did not swing? Do you think he would prefer a walk to a line drive to left? Or maybe he didn't recognize that pitch early enough. Or maybe it was early in the count and he wanted a pitch he could drive instead of one he had to punch to left. I don't know.

But I would hate to assume that Dunn is willing passing up free hits just so that he can walk more. Rather, I think he's swinging when he thinks he can hit the ball well and for whatever reason doesn't think he can drive those pitches that you think he can.

It's just my opinion, but I think Dunn's hitting zone is pretty small. WOY (I think) posted a stat once showing that Dunn is among MLB's worst at hitting pitches outside the strike zone. That may extend to having holes within the zone, too. My eyes may deceive me, but he rarely seems to hit a pitcher's pitch. He doesn't try to line that outside-corner fastball to left because he doesn't do it very well. To his credit, he knows this and waits for a pitch he can hit; but the downside to being a mistake hitter is being vulnerable to good pitchers. Of course, every hitter is going to struggle more against pitchers that can throw strikes without leaving one in the wheelhouse, but it seems to me Dunn might have a larger variance than the typical guy in the .900 OPS class. I have no way to test that hypothesis, though.

wheels
07-30-2007, 07:16 PM
It's just my opinion, but I think Dunn's hitting zone is pretty small. WOY (I think) posted a stat once showing that Dunn is among MLB's worst at hitting pitches outside the strike zone. That may extend to having holes within the zone, too. My eyes may deceive me, but he rarely seems to hit a pitcher's pitch. He doesn't try to line that outside-corner fastball to left because he doesn't do it very well. To his credit, he knows this and waits for a pitch he can hit; but the downside to being a mistake hitter is being vulnerable to good pitchers. Of course, every hitter is going to struggle more against pitchers that can throw strikes without leaving one in the wheelhouse, but it seems to me Dunn might have a larger variance than the typical guy in the .900 OPS class. I have no way to test that hypothesis, though.


Now THAT is good Adam Dunn analysis.

You've been on fire lately.

RedsManRick
07-30-2007, 07:21 PM
It's just my opinion, but I think Dunn's hitting zone is pretty small. WOY (I think) posted a stat once showing that Dunn is among MLB's worst at hitting pitches outside the strike zone. That may extend to having holes within the zone, too. My eyes may deceive me, but he rarely seems to hit a pitcher's pitch. He doesn't try to line that outside-corner fastball to left because he doesn't do it very well. To his credit, he knows this and waits for a pitch he can hit; but the downside to being a mistake hitter is being vulnerable to good pitchers. Of course, every hitter is going to struggle more against pitchers that can throw strikes without leaving one in the wheelhouse, but it seems to me Dunn might have a larger variance than the typical guy in the .900 OPS class. I have no way to test that hypothesis, though.

This is my take on him too. He's a very poor contact hitter and he knows it. So he works counts, tries to get a pitch he CAN hit and hits it. Expanded his zone to punch a ball that he can't hit consistently only robs him of opportunities to drive the ball later in at bats.

Maybe I'm wrong. But I think we're seeing Dunn maximizing his skill set with his approach. Just wait until he loses some bat speed in a few years and his "good pitch" zone contracts even further. He's going fall off a cliff Kevin Maas style in his early 30's.

M2
07-30-2007, 07:35 PM
Now THAT is good Adam Dunn analysis.

You've been on fire lately.

Agreed, on both parts. Nice post, IR.

Scrap Irony
07-30-2007, 10:24 PM
Originally Posted by IslandRed
It's just my opinion, but I think Dunn's hitting zone is pretty small. WOY (I think) posted a stat once showing that Dunn is among MLB's worst at hitting pitches outside the strike zone. That may extend to having holes within the zone, too. My eyes may deceive me, but he rarely seems to hit a pitcher's pitch. He doesn't try to line that outside-corner fastball to left because he doesn't do it very well. To his credit, he knows this and waits for a pitch he can hit; but the downside to being a mistake hitter is being vulnerable to good pitchers. Of course, every hitter is going to struggle more against pitchers that can throw strikes without leaving one in the wheelhouse, but it seems to me Dunn might have a larger variance than the typical guy in the .900 OPS class. I have no way to test that hypothesis, though.

Which is why, IMO, it makes sense to deal him now, assuming, of course, the talent coming back is adequate. Dunn has old player skills, a la Maas, Brunansky, and Ron Kittle. His cliff is a steep one and encroaches closer each day.

In short, Dunn at 23 = Dunn at 27 > Dunn at 30

Why risk a HUGE contract to a player fans are polarized about and local media continually hammers for substantial money when you could deal said player a year or two early for possible (with Dunn's numbers, probable) help later on?

I know it will be nigh impossible to replace Dunn's production now. Agreed. Shrug. The team as is is not capable of competing anyway. Blow it up. Jay Bruce, Josh Hamilton, Joey Votto, and, to a lesser extent, Brandon Phillips and EdE are cheap and should provide decent offensive production and much better D across the board. A RH power bat is needed, as is a leadoff hitter (although I like Keppinger in that role, even while sacrificing leather).

None of this, though, addresses the 800 pound gorilla in the room. The Reds simply do not have enough pitching to compete right now. If they were only a pitcher or two from contention, I'd be all for keeping Dunn and hoping Krivsky finds a gem and two or three others provide career years.

But they're not.

Dunn is the largest chit in possibly providing that pitching so desperately needed. If his deal can provide two high ceiling arms (be they SP or bullpen), make the deal. The offense should be adequate. The pitching is in shambles.

M2
07-30-2007, 10:38 PM
The offense should be adequate. The pitching is in shambles.

The offense is inadequate and the defense is still horrible. The GAB makes the offense look better than it is, but if the Reds move Dunn and replace him with items on hand, that illusion will be ripped to shreds.

I'm not saying I wouldn't move Dunn for the right two arms (though I'm picky when it comes to pitching), but there's shambles to go around with this roster.

RedLegSuperStar
07-31-2007, 12:01 AM
MLBTradeRumors.com -


According to Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post, the Nationals are definitely shopping Chad Cordero and Jon Rauch. Svrluga's source believes one of them will go for prospects, most likely Rauch. Glad to hear it; I was worried both would stay put. I always prefer more trade action.

There's also the possibility of packaging both relievers together to get one top-notch prospect. The Dodgers seem most likely to agree to something like that. Matt Kemp would probably work for Jim Bowden. The post mentions that Bowden indeed asked for Cameron Maybin from the Tigers for Rauch.

One last note: Adam Dunn remains on the radar, but right now it's mostly just interest.

I'd take Maybin and Kemp for Dunn (if Nationals dealt Cordero and Rauch to Reds in return for Dunn).

Patrick Bateman
07-31-2007, 12:06 AM
I'd take Maybin and Kemp for Dunn (if Nationals dealt Cordero and Rauch to Reds in return for Dunn).

One major flaw here. If you really could get Maybin and Kemp for Cordero and Rauch, why wouldn't Bowden just do that himself? Those are the types that Bowedn really wants.

It's moot anyways. Neither Kemp or Maybin is going away for middle relievers.

Ron Madden
07-31-2007, 03:12 AM
Why risk a HUGE contract to a player fans are polarized about and local media continually hammers for substantial money when you could deal said player a year or two early for possible (with Dunn's numbers, probable) help later on?

I know it will be nigh impossible to replace Dunn's production now. Agreed. Shrug. The team as is is not capable of competing anyway. Blow it up. Jay Bruce, Josh Hamilton, Joey Votto, and, to a lesser extent, Brandon Phillips and EdE are cheap and should provide decent offensive production and much better D across the board. A RH power bat is needed, as is a leadoff hitter (although I like Keppinger in that role, even while sacrificing leather).

None of this, though, addresses the 800 pound gorilla in the room. The Reds simply do not have enough pitching to compete right now. If they were only a pitcher or two from contention, I'd be all for keeping Dunn and hoping Krivsky finds a gem and two or three others provide career years.

You are spot on the mark about that 800 pond gorilla.

What worries me is Waynes ability to identify pitching or defensive talent.

Everytime I turn the radio on I hear that the reason the Reds have done so poorly the past few years is because of "the power hitters in the lineup".

The Reds haven't lost so many games the past few years because of a poor batting average with runners in scoring position.

They loose because Reds pitchers put so many runners in scoring position.

When Votto and Bruce get here they will catch the same amount of flack as Dunn does. Marty hates strike outs.

:D

KronoRed
07-31-2007, 10:13 AM
When Votto and Bruce get here they will catch the same amount of flack as Dunn does. Marty hates strike outs.

:D

It'll be fun to watch...seriously :D

BRM
07-31-2007, 11:46 AM
From BP:



If Adam Dunn ends up with the Nationals, it will have to be through the offices of a third team. The Nats have had discussions with the Mets, Red Sox, and Tigers over the past few days, usually about their available relievers, but some sources believe that Dunn could be the ultimate goal. Multiple reports have Dunn has been telling people that he would love to be reunited with his close friend Austin Kearns, and would consider extending his deal if traded to Washington.


From MLBTradeRumors:



Surprisingly, with roughly four hours to ago, Adam Dunn's most likely suitor still appears to be the Washington Nationals.

Will Carroll says that Dunn would love to be reunited with good friend Austin Kearns in Washington, and might sign an extension there. He could become the face of the franchise. The problem is that the Nats don't have what the Reds want, so a third team would have to get involved.

Just speculating, but I could see some bad blood lingering between the two teams over the Gary Majewski thing. That has to make you wonder how Wayne Krivsky would ever let Dunn end up in Washington.

Caseyfan21
07-31-2007, 11:47 AM
Edit: Beat me to it BRM.


Maybe a 3 way with one of the teams interested in the Washington relievers?

Red Leader
07-31-2007, 11:53 AM
Could this be part of that trade: Maybe? It'd have to be a blockbuster if so...


The Diamondbacks are shopping Carlos Quentin in a bid to land a starting pitcher.

The Nationals and Indians are known to have interest, and we're sure a bunch of other teams do as well. Neither Washington nor Cleveland can offer Arizona the immediate SP upgrade the team desires. Quentin would be a worthy piece in a deal for Jon Garland or Joe Blanton, but we're not sure either of those have been discussed. If the Diamondbacks were to move Quentin, they'd probably give Justin Upton a try.

Since Washington and Cincinnati don't have SP's to trade, likely a 4th team with a SP prospect would have to get involved.

RedLegSuperStar
07-31-2007, 12:02 PM
Could this be part of that trade: Maybe? It'd have to be a blockbuster if so...



Since Washington and Cincinnati don't have SP's to trade, likely a 4th team with a SP prospect would have to get involved.

I don't think we'll see a four-team trade this close to the deadline. The Teixeira deal took quite some time to get finalize if it is in fact finalized now. Think about finalizing a 4 team deal....

Caseyfan21
07-31-2007, 12:06 PM
I don't think we'll see a four-team trade this close to the deadline. The Teixeira deal took quite some time to get finalize if it is in fact finalized now. Think about finalizing a 4 team deal....

If the basics of the trade are in place by 4 PM EST, then I believe teams are allowed longer to finalize things such as physicals and contracts (like the Braves and the Tex trade). That being said I agree with you...no way could 4 teams work out even the basics with less than 4 hours left.