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KeyMastur
07-30-2007, 04:59 PM
dumatrait will be promoted...

Red Leader
07-30-2007, 05:00 PM
dumatrait will be promoted...

Starting Thursday, I assume.

Anything else in the works?

Hoping maybe Conine and/or Freel are being talked about.

dougdirt
07-30-2007, 05:01 PM
Trainwreck waiting to happen unfortunately.

Phil cant throw enough strikes, and the ones he does throw don't miss enough bats.

M2
07-30-2007, 05:03 PM
Trainwreck waiting to happen unfortunately.

Phil cant throw enough strikes, and the ones he does throw don't miss enough bats.

I recommend watching his starts through a filter of some sort. Watching Dumatrait pitch to major league batters with the naked eye could make you go blind.

Red Leader
07-30-2007, 05:11 PM
Trainwreck waiting to happen unfortunately.

Phil cant throw enough strikes, and the ones he does throw don't miss enough bats.

I agree. I'm not saying that Dumatrait is incapable of having 1 or 2 decent starts, but I don't think he can put up consistent starts on a regular basis.

KeyMastur
07-30-2007, 05:13 PM
Trainwreck waiting to happen unfortunately.

Phil cant throw enough strikes, and the ones he does throw don't miss enough bats.

no that would be your boy homer and bronson.

Phil will do fine. Watch.

KeyMastur
07-30-2007, 05:14 PM
I agree. I'm not saying that Dumatrait is incapable of having 1 or 2 decent starts, but I don't think he can put up consistent starts on a regular basis.

has anyone besides harang?? Didn't think so. Time to give phil a chance

Patrick Bateman
07-30-2007, 05:18 PM
His numbers in AAA are ugly.

I'm resigned to the thought that he is going to be pounded pretty badly in the big leagues. If that happens, hopefully a move to the bullpen can be considered. IMO, that's the only way he has a chance to be a useful player in the majors.

baseballguy
07-30-2007, 05:19 PM
KeyMastur.. is it a fact he will be promoted? Or just opinion?

Red Leader
07-30-2007, 05:21 PM
has anyone besides harang?? Didn't think so. Time to give phil a chance

Didn't say that well, I guess.

My point is that Dumatrait is not ready for MLB, even less so than Homer, IMO.

I'm thinking Jeff Austin type numbers for the rest of the year.

Jerry Narron
07-30-2007, 05:22 PM
I tried getting Dumatrait up here earlier, but as usual Wayne never listened to me.

M2
07-30-2007, 05:24 PM
Time to give phil a chance

Not really. Frankly, it's never a good time to give Phil Dumatrait a chance because he's not a very good pitcher. He'd be third in my pecking order right now.

Gosling - Ramirez - Dumatrait

baseballguy
07-30-2007, 05:27 PM
Both Gosling and Ramirez have had a chance...Phil is yet to have one.

johngalt
07-30-2007, 05:27 PM
I was hoping Dumatrait would be a guy we could leave in the minors and let him put up some decent win totals and ERA numbers and then use him as part of a trade package.

Sadly, I think once he hits the majors, he's going to pitch so poorly that people will see right through his minor league stats finally.

dougdirt
07-30-2007, 05:28 PM
no that would be your boy homer and bronson.

Phil will do fine. Watch.

First off, Bronson isnt my boy. Secondly, the large difference between Bailey and Dumatrait, you know aside from age, stuff, upside and all of that.... when Bailey throws strikes, people swing and miss a lot more often than they do when Dumatrait throws strikes.

Dumatrait against righties this year:



Entire Season ERA IP H R ER HR BB SO GO/AO AVG
vs Right 3.53 86.2 78 39 34 7 37 47 0.87 .239

Check out that walk to strikeout ratio. That does not bode well at all for current of future success. He is 26 years old, so improvement isn't likely to all of a sudden come along.

He is striking out 1 more batter per 9 innings than he is walking against righties.

I just don't have enough faith in him to throw enough strikes at the major league level to be successful. Honestly, I would rather see Cueto or Fisher called up from AA before Dumatrait because I just think they would have more success.

dougdirt
07-30-2007, 05:30 PM
Both Gosling and Ramirez have had a chance...Phil is yet to have one.

And outside of his last 2 games, Elizardo Ramirez was more than successful in a Reds uniform last year. He has an ERA under 4.50 going into his last two games for the Reds before Narron pulled one of the dumbest moves I have ever seen in my life.

Kc61
07-30-2007, 05:35 PM
I'm not sure Dumatrait's AAA performance really indicates how he will do in future years. He had surgery, only a couple of years back, may need more time. I know his age, but after injury it takes time.

It may not be with this organization, but in a year or two I wouldn't be surprised to see Dumatrait pitching well either as a back end starter or middle reliever in the major leagues. I watched him pitch in spring training a couple years ago, and his fastball does have some pop.
I don't think he is quite the slow tosser some indicate.

The key for Dumatrait will be avoiding the high walk totals. If he continues to walk too many, then he will have real trouble.

M2
07-30-2007, 06:17 PM
Both Gosling and Ramirez have had a chance...Phil is yet to have one.

This isn't Little League, not everyone gets to play. Gosling and Ramirez have had chances because they're better pitchers.

Actually, slot Saarloos in ahead of Dumatrait too. Nope, he's not a good pitcher, but I'll take him over Dumatrait.

baseballguy
07-30-2007, 06:24 PM
Livingston is starting tomorrow..

Chip R
07-30-2007, 06:27 PM
I tried getting Dumatrait up here earlier, but as usual Wayne never listened to me.


Why aren't you standing in the unemployment line?

uoduck1017
07-30-2007, 06:29 PM
He has an ERA under 4.50 going into his last two games for the Reds before Narron pulled one of the dumbest moves I have ever seen in my life.

Jerry, how would you like to respond to that?

RedsManRick
07-30-2007, 06:48 PM
I'm not sure Dumatrait's AAA performance really indicates how he will do in future years. He had surgery, only a couple of years back, may need more time. I know his age, but after injury it takes time.

It may not be with this organization, but in a year or two I wouldn't be surprised to see Dumatrait pitching well either as a back end starter or middle reliever in the major leagues. I watched him pitch in spring training a couple years ago, and his fastball does have some pop.
I don't think he is quite the slow tosser some indicate.

The key for Dumatrait will be avoiding the high walk totals. If he continues to walk too many, then he will have real trouble.

Walks too many, doesn't miss a ton of bats, and gives up hits. He's 26. I'd much rather see Elizardo Ramirez.

Doc. Scott
07-30-2007, 06:53 PM
I'm all for giving Dumatrait a chance. But I'd put him in the bullpen first.

I think the only reason the Reds aren't doing that now is that Phil's been starting in AAA and Mike Gosling is pitching out of the 'pen.

Falls City Beer
07-30-2007, 06:55 PM
Good lord, this team needs someone--anyone--to make some kind of quantum leap talent-wise next season. It is just tumbleweeds in the Reds' minors vis. pitching.

Blue
07-30-2007, 06:56 PM
He could be a decent bullpenner, but as a starter it will be difficult to watch.

lollipopcurve
07-30-2007, 06:59 PM
I'm not optimistic about him as a starter, but I definitely think he deserves a shot. Reports have indicated he has a decent fastball and a good curve. Let's see what he's got. We already know what EZ and Gosling bring. In a lost season, it makes sense to evaluate guys on the cusp, and they need to get a grade on Dumatrait.

thorn
07-30-2007, 07:01 PM
Good lord, this team needs someone--anyone--to make some kind of quantum leap talent-wise next season. It is just tumbleweeds in the Reds' minors vis. pitching.

I think it tells you just how BAD the rotation will be next year and how god awful bad it would be if we traded Arroyo. We better hope someone falls into our lap or we will overpay again for an average pitcher. Going in with Bailey, Besile and whom ever you wish as the 5th starter (Gosling, Levingston, etc) just won't cut it for me.

camisadelgolf
07-30-2007, 07:33 PM
I get the feeling that KeyMastur has previously been banned from RedsZone and is here to troll.

KoryMac5
07-30-2007, 08:19 PM
Give the kid a shot, if he comes up and surprises some folks great. If not have Wayne warm up the shuttle back to AAA, it's not like the playoffs are on the line here. We need to find out what we have in some of these kids that are in our system.

Aronchis
07-30-2007, 08:23 PM
I think it tells you just how BAD the rotation will be next year and how god awful bad it would be if we traded Arroyo. We better hope someone falls into our lap or we will overpay again for an average pitcher. Going in with Bailey, Besile and whom ever you wish as the 5th starter (Gosling, Levingston, etc) just won't cut it for me.

Not if your rebuilding the rotation. You should expect it to be poor and yes, the shuttle from Louisville and Cincy will be going non-stop. Everybody from Bailey to Cueto to Mahoney to Fisher will be driving I-71.

SMcGavin
07-30-2007, 08:23 PM
I think it tells you just how BAD the rotation will be next year and how god awful bad it would be if we traded Arroyo. We better hope someone falls into our lap or we will overpay again for an average pitcher. Going in with Bailey, Besile and whom ever you wish as the 5th starter (Gosling, Levingston, etc) just won't cut it for me.

I seriously think Ramirez is capable of being a decent back-end guy next year. We know what we have with Harang and Arroyo, I guess the big thing is if Homer learns to get out ML hitters. Get one free agent starter, move Belisle back to the pen which would help out there. I realize this is alot of "ifs" that have to happen for our rotation to work out but you never know. Now if none of Bailey, Ramirez, Belisle, or Livingston can cut it next year (this is also a possibility) we are looking at an absolute disaster of a season.

mth123
07-30-2007, 09:03 PM
This isn't Little League, not everyone gets to play. Gosling and Ramirez have had chances because they're better pitchers.

Actually, slot Saarloos in ahead of Dumatrait too. Nope, he's not a good pitcher, but I'll take him over Dumatrait.

I was with you until you brought Saarloos into it. I wouldn't let him clean the toilets in the stadium let alone take the mound again.

I think EZ should be next unless he is still building up arm strength. I'm for running everybody out there just to see what we have, although John Galt's idea of keeping some in the minors to protect any shred of value has real merit.

M2
07-30-2007, 09:15 PM
I was with you until you brought Saarloos into it. I wouldn't let him clean the toilets in the stadium let alone take the mound again.

I think EZ should be next unless he is still building up arm strength. I'm for running everybody out there just to see what we have, although John Galt's idea of keeping some in the minors to protect any shred of value has real merit.

I'm positive of what the Reds have with Dumatrait, and I don't want it.

Much as I'd lack enthusiasm for more of Saarloos, I'd still rather see him than Dumatrait. Also, I'm a fan of prolonging the illusion of value.

Mario-Rijo
07-30-2007, 11:45 PM
I'm positive of what the Reds have with Dumatrait, and I don't want it.

Much as I'd lack enthusiasm for more of Saarloos, I'd still rather see him than Dumatrait. Also, I'm a fan of prolonging the illusion of value.

I agree, Dumatrait just is perfect where he is. Somewhere that makes his stats look respectable, and maybe someone (Texas?) will bite thinking he could be serviceable at the big league level. I seen him pitch in the AAA AS game and he looked rough.

KeyMastur
07-31-2007, 12:18 AM
saarloos has proven more than once he can't get hitters out and you still want him? No wonder your fantasy team sucks

Razor Shines
07-31-2007, 04:20 AM
I get the feeling that KeyMastur has previously been banned from RedsZone and is here to troll.

Yeah, I was thinking the same thing. Whoever he was I'm glad he's back, his baseball knowledge is overwhelming, it's far too much to process in one sitting.

KeyMastur
07-31-2007, 04:25 AM
Yeah, I was thinking the same thing. Whoever he was I'm glad he's back, his baseball knowledge is overwhelming, it's far too much to process in one sitting.

nah. never been banned before, but it was a good guess.... :beerme:

Razor Shines
07-31-2007, 04:30 AM
nah. never been banned before, but it was a good guess.... :beerme:

Have another SN that is somewhat unpopular?

KeyMastur
07-31-2007, 04:32 AM
Have another SN that is somewhat unpopular?

nope, you can have a mod do an IP check too if you want....

camisadelgolf
07-31-2007, 08:50 AM
I get the feeling that KeyMastur has previously been banned from RedsZone and is here to troll.


nah. never been banned before, but it was a good guess.... :beerme:

. . . so I'm only half right. ;-) If everything you say continues to be correct (not that you've made any claims that are too radical), I'm going to guess that you're a janitor who looks through Krivsky's paperwork or you're an immature intern or administrative assistant who works with some of the management in the Reds organization.

By the way, what's your IP address?

TOBTTReds
07-31-2007, 10:00 AM
or you're an immature intern or administrative assistant who works with some of the management in the Reds organization.


This would be my guess. Or it is a guy named Joe or Sam, or you know one of those guys well.;)

Caseyfan21
07-31-2007, 10:41 AM
:laugh:

This guy is cracking me up. I suppose if these moves come true then we can all eat our crow but normally "insiders" don't come onto the board with the tone this guy has. If you're an insider and correctly predict these moves, more power to you. If you don't predict them, get ready to be run out of town.

membengal
07-31-2007, 10:44 AM
Why would anyone eat crow?

Style and tone matter. His are horrible. That's got nothing to do with the information he is imparting, true or not.

Caseyfan21
07-31-2007, 11:04 AM
Why would anyone eat crow?

Style and tone matter. His are horrible. That's got nothing to do with the information he is imparting, true or not.

*If* (big if) his information proves to be true and everyone of the said players is called up, then I have to give him some props because I'm doubting him right now. Style and tone do matter but, IMO, they are secondary to correct information. If he wants to play a little make believe world that he is GM of the Reds he can play that game all day long if he provides correct insider information. Just my opinion on the matter though.

TOBTTReds
07-31-2007, 11:12 AM
Why would anyone eat crow?

Style and tone matter. His are horrible. That's got nothing to do with the information he is imparting, true or not.

I'm with you 100%. Knowing this "inside" info is not worth it if we have no idea why things are happening. It's like saying that 5 people you work with are being fired, but no one knows why, and no one knows if their job is safe. It's annoying to here, "I have a big secret that I can't tell you, but I'll give you a hint."

M2
07-31-2007, 11:55 AM
saarloos has proven more than once he can't get hitters out and you still want him? No wonder your fantasy team sucks

If only I had a fantasy team.

To the best of my knowledge I haven't said a kind word about Saarloos in this entire thread, just that, awful as he may be, I'd rather start him than Phil Dumatrait.

berryluther
07-31-2007, 12:24 PM
His numbers in AAA are ugly.

I'm resigned to the thought that he is going to be pounded pretty badly in the big leagues. If that happens, hopefully a move to the bullpen can be considered. IMO, that's the only way he has a chance to be a useful player in the majors.

Have you considered the possibility that moving pitchers to the bullpen that cant get outs might be our problem this year?

Patrick Bateman
07-31-2007, 12:42 PM
Have you considered the possibility that moving pitchers to the bullpen that cant get outs might be our problem this year?

Well we haven't seen Dumatrait in the pen this seaosn. I'd like to see him in that role in AAA. Perhaps his decent stuff and could make him more of an asset out of the pen. Maybe as a LOOGY.

What I do know is that the Reds are not going to get anything out of Dumatrait in the rotation, so I'd be trying to get any use possible out of him before deciding he's destined for a AAA career. I bet he would do better in the pen than in the rotation. He might actually be able to get some outs there. Sometimes bad starters can make it out of the pen.

5DOLLAR-BLEACHERBUM
07-31-2007, 01:13 PM
Well we haven't seen Dumatrait in the pen this seaosn. I'd like to see him in that role in AAA. Perhaps his decent stuff and could make him more of an asset out of the pen. Maybe as a LOOGY.

What I do know is that the Reds are not going to get anything out of Dumatrait in the rotation, so I'd be trying to get any use possible out of him before deciding he's destined for a AAA career. I bet he would do better in the pen than in the rotation. He might actually be able to get some outs there. Sometimes bad starters can make it out of the pen.
I'm confused, the guys 5-1 with a 3.21 era in his last 10 starts, and has pretty good stuff. Why say he can't help the big club? Just curious.

dougdirt
07-31-2007, 01:17 PM
I'm confused, the guys 5-1 with a 3.21 era in his last 10 starts, and has pretty good stuff. Why say he can't help the big club? Just curious.

Over that same time period he is walking 2.91 batters per 9 and striking out just 4.96 batters per 9. I just don't see him throwing enough strikes to get major league batters out at any consistant rate becuase when he puts the ball over the plate, guys arent missing that much.

camisadelgolf
07-31-2007, 01:18 PM
It's basically because he has a terrible K/BB ratio (amongst other things, of course). History shows that those are the pitchers who have a tendency to be terrible in MLB.

Patrick Bateman
07-31-2007, 01:27 PM
I'm confused, the guys 5-1 with a 3.21 era in his last 10 starts, and has pretty good stuff. Why say he can't help the big club? Just curious.

His ERA and record means basically squat to me.

His peripheral stats are awful. Like doug posted. In the majors, he would likely get plastered. An average (at best) AAA pitcher is basically an awful major league pitcher.

TOBTTReds
07-31-2007, 01:28 PM
I'm confused, the guys 5-1 with a 3.21 era in his last 10 starts, and has pretty good stuff. Why say he can't help the big club? Just curious.

I don't think he has pretty good stuff, and that is where we will all find out if he can sink or swim. Is it good enough, I don't know, but I don't think it is.

M2
07-31-2007, 01:30 PM
And the answer to who replaces Kyle Lohse is: Elizardo Ramirez

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1428779&postcount=8

Do I get a kewpie doll for being the first to mention him in this thread?

dougdirt
07-31-2007, 01:37 PM
Sure do M2.

http://www.myantiquemall.com/kewpieroseGI.jpg

camisadelgolf
07-31-2007, 01:45 PM
Can we get this thread re-titled? It caused me to make an ass of myself in the ORG. That's right. It's not my fault. It's someone else's. :D

5DOLLAR-BLEACHERBUM
07-31-2007, 02:23 PM
I don't think he has pretty good stuff, and that is where we will all find out if he can sink or swim. Is it good enough, I don't know, but I don't think it is.

I havn't had a chance to dig deep into his numbers, now looking at him a little more I can see what your saying. It drives me crazy how our local media tells it one way and the actual numbers tell it another. If I'm not getting info here it comes from wlw or 980/1530 and going by the clowns on the radio it's a crime that this guy isn't up yet. I guess I will need to be a little more careful where I soak up my opinions, or take a trip to Louisville to see for myself.

M2
07-31-2007, 03:28 PM
I havn't had a chance to dig deep into his numbers, now looking at him a little more I can see what your saying. It drives me crazy how our local media tells it one way and the actual numbers tell it another. If I'm not getting info here it comes from wlw or 980/1530 and going by the clowns on the radio it's a crime that this guy isn't up yet. I guess I will need to be a little more careful where I soak up my opinions, or take a trip to Louisville to see for myself.

One of the chief values of this site, IMO, is it's ability to sift through the noise in the traditional media and get us all a little closer to the realities of the game.

I'm sure we've all had that "but I heard/read something different" moment where we've realized the established media was blowing smoke in our faces.

podgejeff_
07-31-2007, 03:46 PM
I'm a little clueless when it comes to some stats and I have a couple of questions I was hoping you guys could help me out with:

1. What's an average BB/9, K/9, HR/9, and K/BB ratio for your average major league pitcher (if a league needs to be specified, the NL)?

2. I know relying on W/L is pretty pointless, but I've always thought ERA was a flawed yet decent way to judge pitchers. Which stats would you primarily use to judge a pitcher over ERA?

3. What's would a good league average OPS for the NL?

RedsManRick
07-31-2007, 04:59 PM
I'm a little clueless when it comes to some stats and I have a couple of questions I was hoping you guys could help me out with:

1. What's an average BB/9, K/9, HR/9, and K/BB ratio for your average major league pitcher (if a league needs to be specified, the NL)?

2. I know relying on W/L is pretty pointless, but I've always thought ERA was a flawed yet decent way to judge pitchers. Which stats would you primarily use to judge a pitcher over ERA?

3. What's would a good league average OPS for the NL?

1.) Average? Not sure. Let's say decent. And remember, this is at the major league level.
BB/9: less than 3.0
K/9: greater than 6.0
K/BB: greater than 2.0
HR/9: less than 1.0

2.) ERA is pretty flawed. Those 4 stats you just mentioned are at the top of my list. I'd also look at GB/FB ratio. Higher tends to be better, but it's more about context. You can have a lower K/9 if you have a very high GB/FB, for example. Maybe throw in some measurement of luck such as BABIP (versus eBABIP) or a measurement of offensive performance against such as Opponents OPS.

3.) Ask and ye shall receive: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6516 (free!) The short answer is the last table posted about 2/3 of the way down.



Future Shock
Positional Differences

by Kevin Goldstein

I talk a lot about positional expectations when discussing prospects, and although it’s a fairly vague idea, it comes with some logic behind it. Obviously, a first base prospect has to hit more to make it than a shortstop does, or a center fielder who has to move to a corner needs to provide more offense to offset the change in positions. These are obvious things, but what happens when we try to quantify the logic behind these generally accepted rules?

To try to get a feel for each position, I compiled (or more accurately, I had William Burke compile for me) the statistics for the 30 players at each position with the most starts at that position over the last three seasons. That let us eliminate players who had jobs here and there, but are not purely defined as starters—guys in just because of injuries or bad planning—and instead lets us focus solely on guys who have jobs year in and year out. For each position, we then calculated the average players at each position, as well as splitting them into four groups, with some overlap—three sets of 10 (Top 10, Middle 10, Bottom 10), and then just the top five, or the ‘elite’ players at the position.

Let’s start by looking at the average lineup. For these purposes, I use my own version of statistical notation, which instead of 162 games is 675 plate appearances, and 600 for catchers.



POS AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
C 541 147 30 1 15 45 83 3 2 .272 .332 .415
1B 586 166 36 2 27 75 109 3 2 .283 .369 .490
2B 606 170 34 4 14 52 90 12 4 .281 .342 .421
3B 600 167 36 3 22 61 106 9 3 .277 .347 .458
SS 612 170 33 5 14 48 93 18 6 .278 .334 .415
LF 597 167 35 4 24 65 110 12 4 .281 .354 .471
CF 604 168 31 6 17 55 101 23 7 .278 .342 .435
RF 597 167 35 3 23 64 108 9 4 .280 .353 .461

So that’s your Joe Average squad. It’s pretty clear that even with just a league-average pitching staff, this team would still win significantly more than 81 games, as this team was able to get full-time work out of every starter, rarely having to use backups. That said, there’s no superstar on the team, nobody slugging over .500 or reaching base at more than a .370 clip. Still, it’s a nasty lineup with no easy outs. The most interesting aspect of this set for me was the batting average, with all eight positions falling within a ten-point range from .272-.281. That tells me that it’s the secondary skills that make all the difference.

A quick matrix using only OPS shows the differences between the positions, and how a switch of positions for a prospect might affect offensive expectations.


TO/FROM C 1B 2B 3B SS LF CF RF
C --- 110 14 57 1 77 29 67
1B -110 --- -96 -53 -109 -33 -81 -43
2B -14 96 --- 43 -13 63 15 53
3B -57 53 -43 --- -56 20 -28 10
SS -1 109 13 56 --- 76 28 66
LF -77 33 -63 -20 -76 --- -48 -10
CF -29 81 -15 28 -28 48 --- 38
RF -67 43 -53 -10 -66 10 -38 ---

Basically, you read this from left to right. If you have an average offensive catcher and you move him to first base, he needs to gain 110 points of OPS in his projection in order to be considered an average performer at his new position.

Now, if we go to the elite group, things change a bit. Here’s your average elite player—again, average of the top five players at each position:



POS AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
C 528 159 34 2 19 61 78 3 1 .301 .375 .478
1B 572 176 36 1 39 92 115 6 2 .307 .405 .581
2B 600 180 42 2 22 59 99 14 5 .300 .367 .496
3B 588 184 39 2 35 75 110 11 3 .313 .394 .564
SS 609 194 38 5 18 54 92 17 6 .318 .377 .482
LF 573 176 37 3 33 88 118 7 2 .307 .402 .557
CF 594 168 30 4 28 67 108 19 4 .282 .359 .492
RF 588 176 35 1 29 74 94 14 4 .300 .380 .510

This is stud city, obviously, and it's no surprise that power shows up in spades; it's the biggest difference between the merely good and the truly great players. A less obvious point of difference is the gap between average, good, and great players for each position, which becomes greater as we move into the impact players. Here’s a chart showing the average OPS for each positions three groupings, as well as the top five. I realize that OPS is far from the perfect statistic, but I’m using it for a couple of reasons: it’s easy to calculate and understand, and it’s position-neutral, which is key for what we are doing here.



POS BAD AVG GOOD ELITE
C 666 748 826 853
1B 758 858 952 987
2B 702 762 820 862
3B 718 805 902 958
SS 666 749 829 859
LF 745 825 915 959
CF 691 777 837 851
RF 766 815 867 890

Looking at this information, we can turn to what it means for a couple of notable position-switch players. First, let's consider the lot of Pirates prospect Neil Walker: Walker moved from catcher to third base prior to the season. He's responded with his best year with the bat, hitting .293/.361/.481 for Double-A Altoona. For the sake of argument, let’s say that’s a reasonable expectation from Walker in the big leagues. Defense notwithstanding, that batting line would put him among the elite catchers in all of baseball, but as a third baseman, he’s merely above-average, and 60 points of OPS below where the average is for the top 10 players at the position. The gap between positions tends to increase as players get better as well. In other words, Walker needs an OPS that is 57 points higher to be considered an average offensive third baseman as opposed to an average catcher, but the difference between him and good ones is 76 points, and elite, 105 points. So, while he's grown, he really could stand to improve even further.

Next, consider the plight of Cubs prospect Tyler Colvin. I’m going to pick on Colvin here because I just talked to a scout about him, who questioned whether or not he has the skills for center field, but this could really apply to any minor league outfielder who might have to move to a corner in the end, of which there are many. Now, Colvin’s had a very good year, reaching Double-A in his first full season, and he's batting .294/.321/.477 overall. That said, he has an aggressive approach and is more of a gap hitter as opposed to any future power threat who’s going to hit 30+ home runs a year. Taking his current batting line, he’d be above-average offensively as a center fielder, enough to be considered one of the betters ones around, but if he’s forced to a corner, and most likely right field because of his plus arm, he’s suddenly a liability with the bat and a below-average player for the position.

In the face of these kinds of normal moves, from a difficult position to an easier one, there's the example of Braves second baseman Kelly Johnson. Johnson's that rare incidence of someone going the other way. In his rookie campaign in the majors he was a left fielder, but he'd come up through the Braves' system as a shortstop, and while his range wasn't good enough to keep him there, moving him back into the infield by converting him to second base greatly increases his value, and in terms of helping shore up the lineup, it has been a key to the Braves season. Currently batting .288/.388/.477, Johnson would still be above-average in left field, but still well behind many players at the position, but those numbers put him in the elite class of hitters at second base.

So, you may want to clip that chart and laminate it, and refer to it any time a player makes a position change.

podgejeff_
07-31-2007, 05:18 PM
Thank you RedsManRick. You pretty much summed up everything I wanted to know right there.

redsmetz
07-31-2007, 10:30 PM
Well, they've announced it - 3 for 3 for the Mastur - I'll be danged.

11larkin11
07-31-2007, 10:32 PM
Well now that we *think* we know who he is, he probably wont be back to give us more inside info, which I actually kind of liked.

Degenerate39
07-31-2007, 11:45 PM
Well, they've announced it - 3 for 3 for the Mastur - I'll be danged.

That's pretty impressive.

TOBTTReds
08-01-2007, 12:00 AM
That's pretty impressive.

Well he does play for the Bats, so it shouldn't be too surprising now that we know who he is.

medford
08-01-2007, 02:33 PM
I know we're not suppose to talk about so said keymastur, but I thought it interesting that his myspace page is now a private page that can only be viewed by friends. I'm guessing we don't see him around here any more and that he had one of those ohh snap moments around 8:08 last night.

Allegations aside, would have been nice to have somebody around this parts w/ such strong opinions of our AAA players and their potential.

Red Leader
08-01-2007, 02:36 PM
Alright guys, let's honor the request of Boss and not talk about this any longer, ok?

I'm going to go ahead and close this thread.