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View Full Version : Hey, another Dunn thread (Paul Daugherty's take)



coachw513
07-31-2007, 11:37 AM
Daugherty's OpEd this morning from the Enquirer:


Wayne Krivsky's cellular telephone hangs like a cauliflower from his ear. Take your average teenager's phone time, multiply it by five and you're still not quite at Krivsky, who's on the line more than a bill collector. It's not for lack of effort that Adam Dunn is still a Red.

Are the Reds close to dealing Dunn? Do they have any intention of dealing Dunn? Beats me. Krivsky declines to talk about players, publicly or in private. That tends to limit your conversations with the Reds general manager to TV and the weather. (Wayne's a big fan of "CSI" and warm sunshine.)

Hunches abound the day before the non-waiver trade deadline. Here's another. Here is all that matters about Adam Dunn:


The Reds can't afford him.

You can haul out your geek sheets and quote chapter and verse about Dunn's OBA, OBP, OPS, HR and RBI and how he hits with RISP, OK? You can say the Reds won't match his power when he's gone. You can defend his defense by wondering who, over the years, has been better in left field, home of George Foster, Kalvoski Daniels and the Mitchellin Man, Kevin Mitchell.

Doesn't matter.

Unless the Reds bump the payroll to $100 million next year - Bob Castellini will grow date palms in his backyard before that happens - Dunn is a luxury they can't afford. When your payroll is likely to be something approaching $80 million, you can't toss one-sixth of it at a designated hitter. Especially when your bullpen has been declared a Superfund site by the Environmental Protection Agency.

That's really the whole of it. It's why if the Reds don't trade Dunn by today, they will trade him by next April, even if it means picking up his $13 million option. It's not that Dunn makes too much money. It's that he makes too much here.

Given what Cleveland just paid to extend Travis Hafner's deal - similar to what Dunn would get next season, for a player who doesn't currently have Dunn's numbers - Dunn is not overpaid.

But you don't eat Belgian chocolates and drink Dom Perignon when you're making $500 a week. You might vacation on an island. You don't own one. The Reds have to do what they can with what they have. Spending $13 million on one, one-dimensional player is a waste of resources.

Forget the notions that Krivsky is leery, from a perception standpoint, of trading Dunn and getting only prospects in return, or that he has been ordered by ownership to make a trade. Simple economics dictates to all involved that Dunn should not be here by Opening Day next year.

Nothing personal; just business.

Dunn will be moved to a team that can absorb his money and have enough left over to buy that island. The L.A. Angels, perhaps. Or, to a team that needs a bopper to showcase upon moving into its new ballpark, whose general manager has a personal relationship with Dunn. That'd be Jim Bowden and the Washington Nationals.

In any case, if Dunn is a Red next year, the club will have missed a chance to change its personality and its chemistry. Ownership understands that.

You like to have players who are consistent and durable. Dunn is all of that. But he's never going to be anything more than he is right now: A very good home run hitter who falls short in other categories, tangible and otherwise.

Dunn vowed to become a "great" outfielder. You'd settle for average. He worked early this year at becoming a more mature hitter and for awhile, the line drives did settle in the opposite field gap. Now, he's on his way to striking out 190 times.

If the Reds were winning or wealthy, nobody would be dogging a guy who has averaged 40 homers, 100 RBI and 100 runs for three years. You'd have to be nuts. On a winning, wealthy team, with serious player leadership, Dunn would be viewed as an essential cog.

Only, the Reds don't win, they aren't rich and clubhouse leadership too often at 5 o'clock is reclining on a couch. Sports sociologists would say the "culture" needs changing. Plus, no team ever won big by hitting lots of home runs, if it couldn't pitch.

Adam Dunn could be traded today. He could be traded five months from today. It's not personal. It's economics. Ownership understands.
Color me here, by the way...and color me quite melancholy about the entire deadline...

As wildly inconsistent as Lohse was, his deal was about economics, about being a FA and a Boras client...Lohse or Livingston, Dumatrait or even Belisle???...for me it is Lohse every day, but I understand, support and agree with the trade because of the end-game at the end of the season...

Will it ever not be about $$ and cost???...will we ever get to a point that management is so well-effectively utilizing their assets (I understand this is a big part of the problem) that resigning Dunn is a non-issue (assuming he didn't want to break the bank) and deemed in fact "cost effective" (some believe it to be this way now I know)...

I'm tired of losing, I'm tired of half-baked roster improvements, I'm tired of never having enough pitching and poorly constructed offenses...

My youngest daughter is 7...she's been a Reds fan for 2 years now...her favorite player was FeLo and I watched her not understand and feel sad when he was traded...but she's an even bigger Reds fan this year...she owns 1 Reds shirt, of her favorite player, Adam Dunn...she watches every AB she can and just loves the big guy...and yesterday she with great conviction says "I'll never watch the Reds again if they trade Adam Dunn"...she will literally break down and cry if/when it happens today...it reminded me that being a fan of your favorite sports team isn't like it used to be in our past, when our guys were always going to be our guys...

So I listen with great interest and check for updates every 30 minutes because I'm insanely passionate about this franchise...and if the rebuilding/housecleaning/dismantling takes place that in many ways I believe should take place, I'll still sit back and be very,very sad about having to root for another batch of Reds...like my daughter...

KronoRed
07-31-2007, 11:38 AM
Reads almost exactly like yesterdays "Dunn must go" column

Joseph
07-31-2007, 11:45 AM
I'm tired of losing, I'm tired of half-baked roster improvements, I'm tired of never having enough pitching and poorly constructed offenses...


There in lies the biggest problem with the Reds of the last decade. The fear to make whole sale change. Even the 'fire sale' of 2003 wasn't really a firesale. We dealt a couple relievers and an OF who was a free agent to be, and the 3b who was the son of the guy just fired.

This team needs to realize it's better to completely suck for a season or two [or three] than to wallow in mediocrity for 6 years or more because they falsely believe they can compete for a division title.

Make some serious trades, or quit pretending you want to do anything other than not lose money. Right now Bob C's 'winning promise' was only lip service to draw fans into the stands.

It's a business, we all get that, show us its a business you want to lead to the top and not just one you want to lead to marginal profitability.

SteelSD
07-31-2007, 11:51 AM
Reads almost exactly like yesterdays "Dunn must go" column

Actually, I think today's column is a follow-up response to Daugherty's on-air Q&A session with redreporter.com's Slyde. If anyone's interested, that conversation can be found here:

http://www.redreporter.com/

The link is on the article second from the top.

Daugherty appears to be quite threatened by the pieces written by John Erardi (Slyde was one of the contributors to those articles). I'd suggest Daugherty should feel threatened, especially when he can't even be bothered to look at Dunn's contract (can't be dealt without his permission until way past next April, Paul).

We've seen good baseball writing (Erardi) and good sport radio talk over the last couple days. Unfortunately, Daugherty missed both even though the latter occurred on his own radio show. Go figure.

Johnny Footstool
07-31-2007, 12:12 PM
That article was absolutely terrible. He starts off with a cheap shot at the stat community, then echoes every Joe Sixpack misconception about Dunn. He didn't even get the economics right. He ignores the fact that Milton's millions will be gone from the payroll.

Sounds like Lil' Paul is straining to resonate with the Dunn Hater crowd.

Roy Tucker
07-31-2007, 12:18 PM
Yeah, I listened to that on my way home from work and was disappointed.

Underneath all the rhetoric, I thought Daughtery was a smart guy. I thought if he heard thge arguments and crunched the numbers, he'd understand Dunn's worth. But all he can harp on now is that the Reds can't afford Dunn's $13M next year and not really explain why.

I think the question of can the Reds afford Dunn's 2008 $13M is a valid one, but PD doesn't say much else besides "no".

PuffyPig
07-31-2007, 12:21 PM
Trade him next April?

I beleive if his option is picked up, he can't be traded until June 15, and then to restriced teams.

If the Reds can afford $10M to Dunn this year, they can certainly afford to pay him $13M next year.

RedsManRick
07-31-2007, 12:21 PM
I wonder where Daugherty got his econ degree. Clearly he doesn't understand that the ultimate goal is winning, that winning requires production, and that production (often) requires money.

If Daugherty looked at the Reds budget, he would see that we actually DO have the money to pay Dunn. Furthermore, if we won't pay money for production, then we cannot expect to get enough production to win. If we can't possibly win, then the Reds shouldn't exist and Daugherty should get another job.

There are all kinds of arguments for trading Dunn that make a lot of sense. The "we can't afford him" one just doesn't work.

I seriously wonder how connected people can simply screw up the realities so easily compared to a mere fan.

bucksfan2
07-31-2007, 12:35 PM
Someone might want to tell the reds media and the Marty that when Texiera inks his $25 mil per year contract that Dunn at $13M isn't that bad. Heck when Lohse gets a multi year deal starting in the $7M range they might realize that this isn't the pre strike era and contracts go up each year.

SteelSD
07-31-2007, 12:39 PM
Someone might want to tell the reds media and the Marty that when Texiera inks his $25 mil per year contract that Dunn at $13M isn't that bad. Heck when Lohse gets a multi year deal starting in the $7M range they might realize that this isn't the pre strike era and contracts go up each year.

Nah. Prices stay constant. I can still go to a movie with a quarter, get a soda and popcorn, and walk out with a nickel.

Darn tootin' I can! ;)

Reds Fanatic
07-31-2007, 12:47 PM
This is from MLB trade rumors about Dunn:



Surprisingly, with roughly four hours to ago, Adam Dunn's most likely suitor still appears to be the Washington Nationals.

Will Carroll says that Dunn would love to be reunited with good friend Austin Kearns in Washington, and might sign an extension there. He could become the face of the franchise. The problem is that the Nats don't have what the Reds want, so a third team would have to get involved.

Just speculating, but I could see some bad blood lingering between the two teams over the Gary Majewski thing. That has to make you wonder how Wayne Krivsky would ever let Dunn end up in Washington.

Johnny Footstool
07-31-2007, 01:13 PM
Nah. Prices stay constant. I can still go to a picture show with two bits, get a sarsaparilla and ribbon candy, and walk out with a nickel.

Darn tootin' I can! ;)

Fixed.

SteelSD
07-31-2007, 01:15 PM
Fixed.

Everyone's a critic.:p:

RBA
07-31-2007, 01:30 PM
Fixed.

buffalo nickel?

MartyFan
07-31-2007, 01:37 PM
Daugherty's OpEd this morning from the Enquirer:


Color me here, by the way...and color me quite melancholy about the entire deadline...

As wildly inconsistent as Lohse was, his deal was about economics, about being a FA and a Boras client...Lohse or Livingston, Dumatrait or even Belisle???...for me it is Lohse every day, but I understand, support and agree with the trade because of the end-game at the end of the season...

Will it ever not be about $$ and cost???...will we ever get to a point that management is so well-effectively utilizing their assets (I understand this is a big part of the problem) that resigning Dunn is a non-issue (assuming he didn't want to break the bank) and deemed in fact "cost effective" (some believe it to be this way now I know)...

I'm tired of losing, I'm tired of half-baked roster improvements, I'm tired of never having enough pitching and poorly constructed offenses...

My youngest daughter is 7...she's been a Reds fan for 2 years now...her favorite player was FeLo and I watched her not understand and feel sad when he was traded...but she's an even bigger Reds fan this year...she owns 1 Reds shirt, of her favorite player, Adam Dunn...she watches every AB she can and just loves the big guy...and yesterday she with great conviction says "I'll never watch the Reds again if they trade Adam Dunn"...she will literally break down and cry if/when it happens today...it reminded me that being a fan of your favorite sports team isn't like it used to be in our past, when our guys were always going to be our guys...

So I listen with great interest and check for updates every 30 minutes because I'm insanely passionate about this franchise...and if the rebuilding/housecleaning/dismantling takes place that in many ways I believe should take place, I'll still sit back and be very,very sad about having to root for another batch of Reds...like my daughter...

I understand what your daughter is thinking...I was 9 when Tony Perez was traded...then when Pete left and Joe was gone...I mean, wow...only difference which I am sure you can see is that Perez, Rose, Morgan, Foster and company accomplished something in the game...FeLo, Dunn, Kearns and anyone else from the last 10 years of this team and organization have not been able to get it done...so, if they are not getting it done here, move them along...it doesn't mean they are bad ballplayers, it means that the personnel on the field isn't the right combination...though I do think that FeLo and Kearns are average (maybe just below) and Dunn is best suited to be in the AL...if another NL team wants to build around him, more power too them.

This organization will more than likely ALWAYS be about economics...unfortunately we are suffering the horrible aftershocks of Lindner, Schott, DanO and Pants...of that group I like Pants the best and I don't like him at all.

This organization has been swirling towards the drain for the last 10-12 years and when it finally caught up to them the previous ownership sold...now, Mr. C and Special K are faced with the daunting task of rebuilding an organization from the MLB product all the way down to low level minor leagues...it's been only a year and a half...not much time to unring all the bells that the previous two ownerships and GM's waved around...Reds fans need to forget the past 10 years...it was a black hole and start looking at this organization like it opened for business in February of 2006.

I am sorry your little girl was upset to see FeLo go..and that she may need to find another player on the Reds to like if Dunn is traded...that's sort of the reality of being a Reds fan.

osuceltic
07-31-2007, 01:43 PM
Someone might want to tell the reds media and the Marty that when Texiera inks his $25 mil per year contract that Dunn at $13M isn't that bad. Heck when Lohse gets a multi year deal starting in the $7M range they might realize that this isn't the pre strike era and contracts go up each year.

This is what he wrote:


It's not that Dunn makes too much money. It's that he makes too much here.

And he's right.

Look, most of us who are in favor of trading Dunn don't feel that way because he's the problem with the Reds. We know he's not the problem. That's such a ridiculous red herring that gets repeated every time someone brings up trading Adam Dunn. That because we think the best thing for the franchise is to trade Dunn, we're somehow blaming him for the Reds losing. We're not doing that.

If the Reds don't trade him, they can either let him walk or pick up his option. If they pick up his option, they'll play him $13 million next season, then be right back in this position -- sign him long-term, or trade him. The fact of the matter is this team doesn't have an unlimited budget. Are you willing to go six years and $90 million for Dunn? That's probably a very reasonable deal. But does it make any sense at all for a team on a limited budget? $15 million a year for a guy who doesn't play a premium position, is a terrible defender, and has a unique skillset that leaves him somewhere short of the game's elite sluggers (how short is open to debate ... endless debate).

Throw in the fact that the team has desperate needs elsewhere (pitching, pitching, defense and pitching), and very few expendable assets to fill those needs, and does it still make sense to sign him to that extension? I certainly don't think so.

So ... if you come to that conclusion, what's the smart thing to do? You're a budget-conscious organization. If you were close to winning, maybe you'd hold onto him and hope he helps you win a World Series. But you're not close to winning. Is the smart move to just let him walk? Or does it make sense to try to turn him into some assets that will help the team going forward? Seems like an obvious answer to me.

I'm not going to get into the culture change thing (although I strongly agree with Daugherty on that), because that just starts violent arguments based on the fact that there is no stat for "clubhouse culture" or "chemistry." But let's just say that Daugherty isn't the only guy who believes that.

Anyway, I hear all kinds of arguments from posters about why trading Dunn is a bad idea. I hear far fewer suggestions for appealing paths going forward. It's always "Don't trade Dunn. Find pitching somewhere else." Where? No one wants to trade Dunn. No one wants to trade Junior (and if he's really demanding an extension, that's moot anyway). No one wants to trade Encarnacion. No one wants to trade prospects (except a couple of posters who want to trade the first legitimate pitching prospect the organization has developed in a long, long time). Everyone is OK trading Hatteberg, Conine, Lohse, Freel, Gonzalez ... Great! I'm sure those guys are going to bring back a ton of talent ...

It's OK to disagree with the idea of trading Dunn, but there are plenty of very smart posters, writers and baseball people who think trading Dunn is the way to go. Insulting their intelligence with misleading arguments is what grinds these threads to the same miserable points time and again.

dougdirt
07-31-2007, 01:47 PM
Great post osuceltic.

Falls City Beer
07-31-2007, 01:48 PM
This is what he wrote:



And he's right.

Look, most of us who are in favor of trading Dunn don't feel that way because he's the problem with the Reds. We know he's not the problem. That's such a ridiculous red herring that gets repeated every time someone brings up trading Adam Dunn. That because we think the best thing for the franchise is to trade Dunn, we're somehow blaming him for the Reds losing. We're not doing that.

If the Reds don't trade him, they can either let him walk or pick up his option. If they pick up his option, they'll play him $13 million next season, then be right back in this position -- sign him long-term, or trade him. The fact of the matter is this team doesn't have an unlimited budget. Are you willing to go six years and $90 million for Dunn? That's probably a very reasonable deal. But does it make any sense at all for a team on a limited budget? $15 million a year for a guy who doesn't play a premium position, is a terrible defender, and has a unique skillset that leaves him somewhere short of the game's elite sluggers (how short is open to debate ... endless debate).

Throw in the fact that the team has desperate needs elsewhere (pitching, pitching, defense and pitching), and very few expendable assets to fill those needs, and does it still make sense to sign him to that extension? I certainly don't think so.

So ... if you come to that conclusion, what's the smart thing to do? You're a budget-conscious organization. If you were close to winning, maybe you'd hold onto him and hope he helps you win a World Series. But you're not close to winning. Is the smart move to just let him walk? Or does it make sense to try to turn him into some assets that will help the team going forward? Seems like an obvious answer to me.

I'm not going to get into the culture change thing (although I strongly agree with Daugherty on that), because that just starts violent arguments based on the fact that there is no stat for "clubhouse culture" or "chemistry." But let's just say that Daugherty isn't the only guy who believes that.

Anyway, I hear all kinds of arguments from posters about why trading Dunn is a bad idea. I hear far fewer suggestions for appealing paths going forward. It's always "Don't trade Dunn. Find pitching somewhere else." Where? No one wants to trade Dunn. No one wants to trade Junior (and if he's really demanding an extension, that's moot anyway). No one wants to trade Encarnacion. No one wants to trade prospects (except a couple of posters who want to trade the first legitimate pitching prospect the organization has developed in a long, long time). Everyone is OK trading Hatteberg, Conine, Lohse, Freel, Gonzalez ... Great! I'm sure those guys are going to bring back a ton of talent ...

It's OK to disagree with the idea of trading Dunn, but there are plenty of very smart posters, writers and baseball people who think trading Dunn is the way to go. Insulting their intelligence with misleading arguments is what grinds these threads to the same miserable points time and again.


Paying Dunn $15-16 million a season for 5 or 6 seasons will NOT hurt this franchise. Even with context taken into consideration. He'll earn his bucks with his production on the field. For the Reds, for the Yankees, for the Billings Mustangs.

Paying Kyle Lohse $8 million for 3 years would be the swift kick in the balls that you're talking about in your post. The "crippling dollars," if you will.

Luckily, Wayne avoided the latter, for which I am very thankful.

top6
07-31-2007, 01:52 PM
Actually, I think today's column is a follow-up response to Daugherty's on-air Q&A session with redreporter.com's Slyde. If anyone's interested, that conversation can be found here:

http://www.redreporter.com/

The link is on the article second from the top.

Daugherty appears to be quite threatened by the pieces written by John Erardi (Slyde was one of the contributors to those articles). I'd suggest Daugherty should feel threatened, especially when he can't even be bothered to look at Dunn's contract (can't be dealt without his permission until way past next April, Paul).

We've seen good baseball writing (Erardi) and good sport radio talk over the last couple days. Unfortunately, Daugherty missed both even though the latter occurred on his own radio show. Go figure.Completely agree with this. For years, Daughtery has written basically nothing - and has done a poor job of it at that. I listened to Sports Talk for 15 minutes or so yesterday - and was bored out of my mind. He is not good at his job, so he has to resort to calling people who do understand complicated issues like OPS "geeks." Of course, he is incapable of responding with any meaningful stats of his own. (Which is too bad, because I'm sure a strong statistical case could be made for trading Dunn. On the other hand, why bother doing so when you can make a joke revolving around the expensive nature of Dom Perignon. That's really fresh.)

(Just as an aside, he was talking about deadline trades. When a caller mentioned the Jose Guillen for Aaron Harang trade, Daughtery said he wasn't sure that trade had happened, and that he would have to "research" to confirm. First, if you are being paid to discuss Reds trades for the evening, and are paid in general to cover Cincinnati sports, I would think you would already know about probably the most successful Reds trade in 10 years or so. Second, one could "research" this in about 2 seconds by typing "Jose Guillen" and "Aaron Harang" into Google; why didn't he do that? These are signs to me of someone who is sloppy and doesn't particulary care whether he does a good job or not. But I am just a geek, so what do I know?)

bucksfan2
07-31-2007, 01:53 PM
osuceltic good points but you have spend money somewhere. I think what gets lost in the shuffle nowdays are the contracts that are out there. $10M a year doesn't buy you a lot. Once a player exhausts his arbitratoin he is going to recieve a pay day. This organization isn't stocked with enough talent to just let players walk because they are going to start to make market value. If the reds had a prospect waiting in the wings to take over for Dunn sure go ahead and then let him walk. Since the reds do not have a prospect waiting in the wings you have to pick up his option. I dont care if its too much money for this club, if you start letting all potential free agents to walk you will end up becoming the Pirates and Royals.

dougdirt
07-31-2007, 01:54 PM
Paying Dunn $15-16 million a season for 5 or 6 seasons will NOT hurt this franchise. Even with context taken into consideration. He'll earn his bucks with his production on the field. For the Reds, for the Yankees, for the Billings Mustangs.

Paying Kyle Lohse $8 million for 3 years would be the swift kick in the balls that you're talking about in your post. The "crippling dollars," if you will.

Luckily, Wayne avoided the latter, for which I am very thankful.

Is Adam Dunn going to be worth at least most of the 15-16 million he is going to be paid? Absolutely. That doesn't mean the Marlins, Devil Rays, Royals or Reds should pay him that though. Just because a guy is worth the money doesn't mean that everyone can afford to pay it.

Falls City Beer
07-31-2007, 01:55 PM
Is Adam Dunn going to be worth at least most of the 15-16 million he is going to be paid? Absolutely. That doesn't mean the Marlins, Devil Rays, Royals or Reds should pay him that though. Just because a guy is worth the money doesn't mean that everyone can afford to pay it.

The Reds can afford it, as long as they don't piss away money on useless garbage like Cormier, Castro, etc.

dougdirt
07-31-2007, 01:56 PM
osuceltic good points but you have spend money somewhere. I think what gets lost in the shuffle nowdays are the contracts that are out there. $10M a year doesn't buy you a lot. Once a player exhausts his arbitratoin he is going to recieve a pay day. This organization isn't stocked with enough talent to just let players walk because they are going to start to make market value. If the reds had a prospect waiting in the wings to take over for Dunn sure go ahead and then let him walk. Since the reds do not have a prospect waiting in the wings you have to pick up his option. I dont care if its too much money for this club, if you start letting all potential free agents to walk you will end up becoming the Pirates and Royals.

I think the Reds do have a prospect waiting in the wings to take over for Dunn. The issue is though, even if Jay Bruce is ready, will he play in Cincinnati next April if Griffey, Freel and Hamilton are all healthy? No, he won't. So the fact of the matter of having or not having someone ready does not matter, becuase he won't play unless something happens.

dougdirt
07-31-2007, 01:59 PM
The Reds can afford it, as long as they don't piss away money on useless garbage like Cormier, Castro, etc.

Well now you are counting on the FO to not do that.... and it seems like something that Wayne just can't get away from. I would much rather overpay Dunn by a few million than have 3-4 million going to Cormier and Castro, but if I had a say in it, I would rather just have 16 million to spend and none of them so long as I could trade Dunn for something useful, or get the extra draft picks for him.

Johnny Footstool
07-31-2007, 01:59 PM
The Reds can afford it, as long as they don't piss away money on useless garbage like Cormier, Castro, etc.

Exactly. With Milton's contract coming off the books, Dunn is affordable for next season.

I'm not against trading Dunn at this point. What I'm against is flying a false banner ("The Reds Can't Afford Him") to rationalize a trade.

CTA513
07-31-2007, 02:04 PM
I wonder how much money the Reds blow on bad pitching if they no longer have to pay for Milton or Dunn.

red-in-la
07-31-2007, 02:05 PM
If you are tired of the way it is to be a Reds fan......move.

What you have is what you get. If you do not live (or can bring yourself to be an absentee fan of) one of 8 or so major markets......

Bubkiss!

Falls City Beer
07-31-2007, 02:06 PM
I wonder how much money the Reds blow on bad pitching if they no longer have to pay for Milton or Dunn.

:laugh:

That should be the lede of the article when Dunn's traded.

dougdirt
07-31-2007, 02:07 PM
Exactly. With Milton's contract coming off the books, Dunn is affordable for next season.

I'm not against trading Dunn at this point. What I'm against is flying a false banner ("The Reds Can't Afford Him") to rationalize a trade.

Next year Arroyo gets a 2.65 Million raise, then makes 9.5 million in 2009 and 11 million in 2010. Harang gets a 2.5 million raise next year, then makes 11 million in 2009 and 12.5 million in 2010.

So next year 5.15 Million of Milton's money is already going to guys on the team. After that it just gets a lot more expensive. So while paying Dunn 13 million next year is surely doable, paying him 15-16 million in 2009 would lock up 36-37 million in Arroyo, Dunn and Harang.

osuceltic
07-31-2007, 02:34 PM
osuceltic good points but you have spend money somewhere. I think what gets lost in the shuffle nowdays are the contracts that are out there. $10M a year doesn't buy you a lot. Once a player exhausts his arbitratoin he is going to recieve a pay day. This organization isn't stocked with enough talent to just let players walk because they are going to start to make market value. If the reds had a prospect waiting in the wings to take over for Dunn sure go ahead and then let him walk. Since the reds do not have a prospect waiting in the wings you have to pick up his option. I dont care if its too much money for this club, if you start letting all potential free agents to walk you will end up becoming the Pirates and Royals.

Three points:

1. I argued against letting him walk. I argued for cashing him in for other assets.

2. You said "you have to spend money somewhere ... " Absolutely. Starting pitching. Elite players. Two-way players at premium positions. But when you're a team with a limited budget, the last place you need to allocate your big paychecks is to a very good but not great player at a non-premium position who also happens to be terrible defensively.

3. Prospects waiting in the wings ... The Reds have Joey Votto, who won't replace all of Dunn's production, but should replace some of it -- for much less. And Jay Bruce could be here as soon as next season. And if Encaracion bounces back, Freel bounces back, Hamilton stays healthy and progresses, Ross bounces back ... and if you turn up some other unexpected sources of offense ... you start to approximate it. Offense is a lot easier to find than pitching.

NC Reds
07-31-2007, 03:15 PM
Instead of talking about ways to replace Dunn's production, the discussion should be how to augment his production. The franchise can afford him, especially with bad salaries coming off the books. Shouldn't each team be getting some TV money for MLB Network next year as well?

An outfield of Dunn-Hamilton-Bruce will be very dangerous offensively in the not too distant future. I fear WK will just insert the names Freel or Hopper in there instead of Dunn. Weak.

harangatang
07-31-2007, 03:17 PM
Dunn is a luxury they can't afford.That statement should read something like this...Dunn is a neccessity the Reds can't afford to lose.

dougdirt
07-31-2007, 03:21 PM
That statement should read something like this...Dunn is a neccessity the Reds can't afford to lose.

I disagree with that completely. Dunn is nice to have and all, but he is not irreplacable.

bucksfan2
07-31-2007, 03:22 PM
3. Prospects waiting in the wings ... The Reds have Joey Votto, who won't replace all of Dunn's production, but should replace some of it -- for much less. And Jay Bruce could be here as soon as next season. And if Encaracion bounces back, Freel bounces back, Hamilton stays healthy and progresses, Ross bounces back ... and if you turn up some other unexpected sources of offense ... you start to approximate it. Offense is a lot easier to find than pitching

Votto is a 1B, I have heard that he makes Dunn look good out in LF. Bruce is a replacement but only if they plan on starting him off in cincy at the beginning of next year. I would tend to give him at least half of next season in AAA ball. Freel needs to be gone. He is not going to bounce back, will take playing time away from people who should be playing over him, and will be one year older. So if Dunn is gone you basically have two major league caliber outfielders in Jr and Hamilton. Jr is on the downside of his career and Hamilton will be entering his second full season in the bigs. Edwin can provide some offense but he has been jerked around so much by this management that I wonder if he will ever produce as a red. And Ross is what you see. He is going to hit close to 30 hrs drive in maybe 60-70 runs but stirke out a ton.

I agree with you that you cash in Dunn for something. I think if you have a decent offer you move him, however I dont think the reds have recieved a good offer for him yet. I think he is back here at $13M for next year and we are in the same situation exactly one year from now.

deltachi8
07-31-2007, 03:25 PM
I disagree with that completely. Dunn is nice to have and all, but he is not irreplacable.

Who do you replace his production with at a comparable cost and how what is the cost to obtain that?

nate
07-31-2007, 03:28 PM
Who do you replace his production with at a comparable cost and how what is the cost to obtain that?

Or, who can replace his run scoring with similar run prevention?

harangatang
07-31-2007, 03:28 PM
I disagree with that completely. Dunn is nice to have and all, but he is not irreplacable.I feel some Aerosmith coming on, Same Old Song and Dance. But I'm not going to rehash it anymore.

CTA513
07-31-2007, 03:31 PM
Run producer Norris Hopper will replace Adam Dunn.

:all_cohol

bucksfan
07-31-2007, 03:41 PM
Instead of talking about ways to replace Dunn's production, the discussion should be how to augment his production. The franchise can afford him, especially with bad salaries coming off the books. Shouldn't each team be getting some TV money for MLB Network next year as well?

An outfield of Dunn-Hamilton-Bruce will be very dangerous offensively in the not too distant future. I fear WK will just insert the names Freel or Hopper in there instead of Dunn. Weak.

Those are my feelings exactly. If something jumped in my lap and bowled me over (can something truly do both of those things at once???) I of course would entertain the notion. But it would not be the focus of my efforts to find a suitor for Dunn.

dougdirt
07-31-2007, 03:58 PM
Who do you replace his production with at a comparable cost and how what is the cost to obtain that?

Well replacing his bat will be tough if you try to replace it with just another bat. But considering that if you replace him with a lesser bat (but still a decent bat) and a much better defender, then it makes replacing him much easier. I don't have a specific person to replace him with, but the comment came off like we were trying to move Pujols or something.... a guy who simply can't be replaced. Adam Dunn can be replaced is all I was saying.

That said, I would take my chances with Griffey, Hamilton and Bruce in my outfield next April if I could get a decent return for Dunn.

Eric_Davis
07-31-2007, 05:20 PM
I understand what your daughter is thinking...I was 9 when Tony Perez was traded...then when Pete left and Joe was gone...I mean, wow...only difference which I am sure you can see is that Perez, Rose, Morgan, Foster and company accomplished something in the game...FeLo, Dunn, Kearns and anyone else from the last 10 years of this team and organization have not been able to get it done...so, if they are not getting it done here, move them along...it doesn't mean they are bad ballplayers, it means that the personnel on the field isn't the right combination...though I do think that FeLo and Kearns are average (maybe just below) and Dunn is best suited to be in the AL...if another NL team wants to build around him, more power too them.

This organization will more than likely ALWAYS be about economics...unfortunately we are suffering the horrible aftershocks of Lindner, Schott, DanO and Pants...of that group I like Pants the best and I don't like him at all.

This organization has been swirling towards the drain for the last 10-12 years and when it finally caught up to them the previous ownership sold...now, Mr. C and Special K are faced with the daunting task of rebuilding an organization from the MLB product all the way down to low level minor leagues...it's been only a year and a half...not much time to unring all the bells that the previous two ownerships and GM's waved around...Reds fans need to forget the past 10 years...it was a black hole and start looking at this organization like it opened for business in February of 2006.

I am sorry your little girl was upset to see FeLo go..and that she may need to find another player on the Reds to like if Dunn is traded...that's sort of the reality of being a Reds fan.

Nice post.

Redsland
07-31-2007, 05:36 PM
Paul Daugherty, who has seen the Reds’ financial books about as many times as you and I have, asserts things like, “Here is all that matters about Adam Dunn: The Reds can't afford him.” And “Dunn is a luxury they can't afford.” And “It's not that Dunn makes too much money. It's that he makes too much here.” And “Simple economics dictates to all involved that Dunn should not be here by Opening Day next year.”

The Reds seem to be easily affording the $10 million that Dunn gets this year. So is Paul Daugherty really asserting, without any corroboration of any kind, that the Reds somehow can’t afford an additional $3 million for next season?

Yes, he is.

Where oh where will the Reds possibly get that kind of money?

BTW, in a twist on a popular RedsZonism, the following people say bye:

Eric Milton: $9 million
Kyle Lohse: $4.2 million
Jason LaRue: $3 million (cash to KC)
Rheal Cormier: $2.25 million
Kirk Saarloos: $1.2 million
Chad Moeller: $700,000
---------------------------
Total: $20.35 million

Also, if the options for Hatteberg and/or Conine are not exercised, that’s another $1.65 million and $1.7 million in 2007 salary respectively that will no longer be on the books.

Lazy, misinformed, irresponsible, patently false article.

westofyou
07-31-2007, 05:42 PM
Lazy, misinformed, irresponsible, patently false article.

Otherwise it's just a par for PD.

flyer85
07-31-2007, 05:58 PM
Lazy, misinformed, irresponsible, patently false article.... but likely popular with the easily duped.

Yachtzee
08-01-2007, 09:54 AM
Run producer Norris Hopper will replace Adam Dunn.

:all_cohol

Wait. Is he a run producer or a run preventer, and if a run preventer, for which team?

Dunn is affordable for this team. As FCB pointed out, money for Dunn isn't the problem, it's all the big money spent on bad players that is the problem and the answer isn't dumping a positive asset on the market so that you can afford those bad contracts, it's to get rid of and stop signing more bad contracts.

The contracts of guys like Milton, Cormier, and Castro act like an anchor on the team's talent and payroll. They cost a lot, take up a spot on the roster, and don't produce. But the answer is not to drop talented guys because you can't afford to pay them and the bad contracts. The answer is to accept that you made a mistake, find some way to dump the bad contract, and sign productive players to extensions. But you don't dump a talented player because you mistakenly signed a poor performer to a huge contract. That's the way of losing franchises.

Whether the Reds should resign Dunn should be based entirely on what he's asking in relation to an evaluation of his talent and contribution to winning ballgames. Same goes for all the rest of the players. Of course when you've got a system in place that stinks at identifying and placing value on talent, you end up with a bunch of bad contracts. I worry that when Milton's money goes off the books and Griffey and Dunn are gone, all that money "saved" will be blown on more bad contracts. Then the Reds are the Pittsburgh Pirates West.

Ltlabner
08-01-2007, 10:23 AM
The Reds seem to be easily affording the $10 million that Dunn gets this year. So is Paul Daugherty really asserting, without any corroboration of any kind, that the Reds somehow can’t afford an additional $3 million for next season? .

That is the simplest, and most common sense argument regarding keeping Dunn that I have heard yet.

I am serving notice that I will rip off your reasoning and use it as my own amoungst all my friends and colleages.

Very well said.

RichRed
08-01-2007, 10:52 AM
Paul Daugherty, who has seen the Reds’ financial books about as many times as you and I have, asserts things like, “Here is all that matters about Adam Dunn: The Reds can't afford him.” And “Dunn is a luxury they can't afford.” And “It's not that Dunn makes too much money. It's that he makes too much here.” And “Simple economics dictates to all involved that Dunn should not be here by Opening Day next year.”

The Reds seem to be easily affording the $10 million that Dunn gets this year. So is Paul Daugherty really asserting, without any corroboration of any kind, that the Reds somehow can’t afford an additional $3 million for next season?

Yes, he is.

Where oh where will the Reds possibly get that kind of money?

BTW, in a twist on a popular RedsZonism, the following people say bye:

Eric Milton: $9 million
Kyle Lohse: $4.2 million
Jason LaRue: $3 million (cash to KC)
Rheal Cormier: $2.25 million
Kirk Saarloos: $1.2 million
Chad Moeller: $700,000
---------------------------
Total: $20.35 million

Also, if the options for Hatteberg and/or Conine are not exercised, that’s another $1.65 million and $1.7 million in 2007 salary respectively that will no longer be on the books.

Lazy, misinformed, irresponsible, patently false article.

Excellent post, Redsland. Even this part of the commentary is false:


Nothing personal; just business.

I absolutely believe it's personal with Daugherty considering he's ripped Dunn countless times, referring to him as "Dave Kingman," etc., but he's trying to conceal it with the bogus economic argument.

This article is the work of a hack, or as WOY correctly says, par for the course.

BRM
08-01-2007, 02:52 PM
Here's the latest from Paul.



The perception is strong that the Reds wanted way too much for the likes of A.Dunn. In doing some background work today, the reactions I got from those who'd know ranged from "ridiculous'' to "unrealistic.'' Believe what you want.

Regardless, the Reds had some big cards to play -- Dunn, Arroyo, Weathers, even Griffey -- and held 'em... you'd like to think that given the results this year -- and the previous six -- that the Reds understand small changes aren't going to do. The inactivity leaves you wondering.

Of course, the roster today could look entirely different by Opening Day next year. But if the deadline silence means B. Castellini, W. Krivsky and others believe the Reds are, metaphorically speaking, one player away, brace yourself for, oh, 77-85 in '08, too. By the way: No big-time manager likely would come to work here w/the current roster. Not if he had a choice.

The Dunn thing wasnt surprising, just disappointing. You get a couple decent prospects and maybe a decent major-league outfielder for him, and move on, $13m better in the wallet. Again: It's no slam on Dunn to say he'll make too much money next year for the Reds to keep him. His production wouldnt be duplicated, but if you use some of his salary to pay pitching, it wouldnt need to be... and it would begin a much-needed personality makeover in the clubhouse...

As it is, we're back in wait-and-see mode.

westofyou
08-01-2007, 03:02 PM
and it would begin a much-needed personality makeover in the clubhouse...

The worms finally emerge from the muck.

See Paul, come right out with it instead of the other stuff.

Then you won't look like such a schmuck.

RichRed
08-01-2007, 03:07 PM
The worms finally emerge from the muck.

See Paul, come right out with it instead of the other stuff.

Then you won't look like such a schmuck.

Exactly. It IS personal.

osuceltic
08-01-2007, 03:09 PM
The worms finally emerge from the muck.

See Paul, come right out with it instead of the other stuff.

Then you won't look like such a schmuck.

Some of us think he's right about all of that stuff and he doesn't look like a schmuck.

This clubhouse is way too comfortable and has been since 1999. They show up for work, they lose a game, they go home. I believe a team assumes the personality of its leaders -- and Junior and Dunn are this team's leaders.

Are there very real, practical, statistically supportable problems with this roster that have nothing to do with Dunn and Junior? Absolutely. But the presence of one doesn't mean there is an absence of the other.

flyer85
08-01-2007, 03:13 PM
It's about talent ... something the Reds sorely lack, especially in the area of pitching.

MartyFan
08-01-2007, 03:17 PM
I don't think the Reds are beyond hope...are they in trouble? Sure, but if I where a Reds fan who was wowed by Adam Dun I would be encouraged that they stood their ground at the deadline because that means the team will be in a buy mode when the offseason hits.

I think Mr. C and Wayne K are more legit than most people think or give them credit...they may have to take their lumps right now but in 2 more years we'll all be celebrating a WS champion together.

BuckeyeRedleg
08-01-2007, 03:17 PM
Some of us think he's right about all of that stuff and he doesn't look like a schmuck.

This clubhouse is way too comfortable and has been since 1999. They show up for work, they lose a game, they go home. I believe a team assumes the personality of its leaders -- and Junior and Dunn are this team's leaders.

Are there very real, practical, statistically supportable problems with this roster that have nothing to do with Dunn and Junior? Absolutely. But the presence of one doesn't mean there is an absence of the other.

What makes you think the Reds clubhouse is any different than winning teams like the Red Sox or Indians?

Unless you're there, you have no idea.

He's a schmuck.

pedro
08-01-2007, 03:19 PM
Some of us think he's right about all of that stuff and he doesn't look like a schmuck.

This clubhouse is way too comfortable and has been since 1999. They show up for work, they lose a game, they go home. I believe a team assumes the personality of its leaders -- and Junior and Dunn are this team's leaders.

Are there very real, practical, statistically supportable problems with this roster that have nothing to do with Dunn and Junior? Absolutely. But the presence of one doesn't mean there is an absence of the other.

Speculation on clubhouse dynamics is pretty shallow business from the outside IMO.

osuceltic
08-01-2007, 03:37 PM
Come on, you don't have to live in a house to see when one is falling down.

Anyone who watches this team every night as they stroll on and off the field, fail to run out balls, don't take the extra base, etc. and doesn't see a problem is missing the forest for the trees. There are teams that show up to play and teams that show up to win. The Reds show up to play.

Is it the reason they're losing? It's one of the reasons.

pedro
08-01-2007, 03:39 PM
Come on, you don't have to live in a house to see when one is falling down.

Anyone who watches this team every night as they stroll on and off the field, fail to run out balls, don't take the extra base, etc. and doesn't see a problem is missing the forest for the trees. There are teams that show up to play and teams that show up to win. The Reds show up to play.

Is it the reason they're losing? It's one of the reasons.

I watch the Reds almost every night and Adam Dunn hustles as much as anyone on the team. If they have a problem with hustling it's not because they're taking their cues from Dunn. That's a bunch of media created BS.

KronoRed
08-01-2007, 03:51 PM
Sean Casey hustled, was a great clubhouse guy and all that, team still stank.

Kc61
08-01-2007, 03:56 PM
The Reds have put themselves in a poor position regarding Dunn. They should have acted before the deadline either to trade him, or re-sign him longer term.

Now, they probably can't trade Dunn anymore. The only exception is a trade to a team claiming Dunn on waivers (perhaps Washington). But that really narrows the field. Otherwise, he can't be traded through this season. He also can't be traded without consent if the option is exercised -- until June 15, 2008. After that he still has a limited no-trade clause. (According to press reports.)

If they wanted to extend him, they should have done it already. Now, Dunn is in the driver's seat. He has a great option deal of $13.5 million if the Reds exercise, followed by free agency. If the Reds don't exercise, he has free agency immediately. Doubt he will sign a reasonable long-term deal when these alternatives (big option year or free agency) await him.

Arbitration? I'd be surprised if the Reds offer Dunn arbitration. I think they'd rather exercise the $13.5 million option. With his numbers, if he arbitrates, he could get more than $15 million. Unlikely he'd accept the arbitration offer, but possible if he doesn't get big offers in free agency.

Seems to me the likely scenarios now are a waiver trade to the Nationals, if they are first in line on waivers, or an exercise of the one-year extension with the probability that Dunn leaves in free agency after 2008.

Redsland
08-01-2007, 04:13 PM
Exactly. It IS personal.
I guess something didn't take (http://frontier.cincinnati.com/blogs/daugherty/2007/03/my-new-friend-adam.asp).

Friday, March 02, 2007
my new friend Adam

SARASOTA -- spring training is about new starts, so I figured it was time to patch things up w/Adam Dunn... occasionally, writers and players have problems with each other... usually they pass... ours lingered, which was dumb, because Dunn is among the most engaging and self-effacing Reds, not to mention one of the most important. So when I asked Dunn today if we could bury the hatchet, he didn't bury it in my head. We had a great talk, he seems a changed guy. More serious about the player he can be, more aware that his vast potential was going a little untapped. More mature, generally. Good for him. Good for the Reds. I'll write about him for Sunday's paper. Meantime, it feels good to patch things up.

posted by Paul Daugherty at 1:57 PM
Maybe Dunn didn't "change" and "mature" to Doc's liking after all.

Chip R
08-01-2007, 05:09 PM
I guess something didn't take (http://frontier.cincinnati.com/blogs/daugherty/2007/03/my-new-friend-adam.asp).

Maybe Dunn didn't "change" and "mature" to Doc's liking after all.


I don't necessarily think it's personal with Doc. He seems pretty dispassionate about Dunn. Now the radio folk are another story.

westofyou
08-01-2007, 05:20 PM
Some of us think he's right about all of that stuff and he doesn't look like a schmuck.

This clubhouse is way too comfortable and has been since 1999. They show up for work, they lose a game, they go home. I believe a team assumes the personality of its leaders -- and Junior and Dunn are this team's leaders.

Are there very real, practical, statistically supportable problems with this roster that have nothing to do with Dunn and Junior? Absolutely. But the presence of one doesn't mean there is an absence of the other.

Good for you, enjoy the poor journalism, chew it up.

westofyou
08-01-2007, 05:21 PM
I watch the Reds almost every night and Adam Dunn hustles as much as anyone on the team. If they have a problem with hustling it's not because they're taking their cues from Dunn. That's a bunch of media created BS.

I've seen 3 games live in the last month, Dunn ran off and on the field each game.

Maybe PD was text messaging Marty when it happened?

BRM
08-01-2007, 05:36 PM
I've seen 3 games live in the last month, Dunn ran off and on the field each game.

Maybe PD was text messaging Marty when it happened?

Are you sure it wasn't a slow jog? I've been told countless times that Adam nevers runs to his position so you must have been mistaken.