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Sea Ray
08-01-2007, 10:53 AM
I'm intrigued by what the Braves gave up in order to acquire Mark Teixeira. Seems to me he is a player very similar to Adam Dunn and he was the primary player in a trade that netted the Braves' top three prospects plus two more in the #10-20 range. That sounds like a boatload to me. I gotta believe if WK was offered anything like the Braves #1, 2 and 3 prospects he'd have jumped on it.

Why is Teixeira worth so much more than Dunn and what exactly is Dunn worth?

flyer85
08-01-2007, 10:56 AM
Why is Teixeira worth so much more than Dunn and what exactly is Dunn worth?Hard to say without inside knowledge. The main advantage Teixeira has is that he is under the Braves control through 2008. Teams are not going to pay nearly as much for a 1/3 of a season rental.

The optimal time for trading Dunn has passed and I think it is safe to say that the quote from the DDN makes is clear that Dunn has zero interest in staying in Cincinnati past 2008. He will likely be dealt in the summer of 2008 for kibbles and bits.

BRM
08-01-2007, 10:57 AM
Why is Teixeira worth so much more than Dunn and what exactly is Dunn worth?

Batting average, K's, and defense are the primary reasons Tex is worth more than Dunn IMO. Plus, he's under Atlanta's control through 2008.

Sea Ray
08-01-2007, 11:02 AM
Batting average, K's, and defense are the primary reasons Tex is worth more than Dunn IMO. Plus, he's under Atlanta's control through 2008.

I think you're spot on. The contract situation is more iffy. The Reds made it clear that any team would have 48 hrs to extend Dunn's contract and for whatever it's worth Chris Welsh said last night that Dunn agreed to an extention with Jim Bowden before a deal with the Nats fell through.

Joseph
08-01-2007, 11:06 AM
Position of need. Player control. Switch hitter. 30-40 points difference in BA. Slightly higher OBP [mostly due to the BA]. Better defensively.

It's one of those things where Tex grades just slightly above Dunn in several categories and once you start adding up those points it turns into a larger difference overall.

I love Dunn, I'm not a basher.

BRM
08-01-2007, 11:07 AM
I think you're spot on. The contract situation is more iffy. The Reds made it clear that any team would have 48 hrs to extend Dunn's contract and for whatever it's worth Chris Welsh said last night that Dunn agreed to an extention with Jim Bowden before a deal with the Nats fell through.

I didn't know that. That's interesting. Who rejected the proposed trade, Jim or Wayne? Did Welsh mention what the Nationals were offering?

Sea Ray
08-01-2007, 11:10 AM
I didn't know that. That's interesting. Who rejected the proposed trade, Jim or Wayne? Did Welsh mention what the Nationals were offering?

He said that Bowden pulled out over which minor leaguers the Reds wanted. He said their closer Cordero was agreed upon.

BRM
08-01-2007, 11:13 AM
He said that Bowden pulled out over which minor leaguers the Reds wanted. He said their closer Cordero was agreed upon.

No other names were mentioned, huh? We heard Wayne was asking for the moon so I wonder who else he asked for besides Cordero.

flyer85
08-01-2007, 11:13 AM
Did Welsh mention what the Nationals were offering?... likely a load of crap.

flyer85
08-01-2007, 11:15 AM
He said that Bowden pulled out over which minor leaguers the Reds wanted. He said their closer Cordero was agreed upon.and the Nats farm system is almost entirely barren.

Sea Ray
08-01-2007, 11:16 AM
No other names were mentioned, huh? We heard Wayne was asking for the moon so I wonder who else he asked for besides Cordero.

I think he mentioned one more but I can't recall. Surely someone else watched the game and took note. I can't believe it hasn't been written about here on RZ yet.

BRM
08-01-2007, 11:18 AM
I think he mentioned one more but I can't recall. Surely someone else watched the game and took note. I can't believe it hasn't been written about here on RZ yet.

No kidding. Especially with Dunn reportedly agreeing to an extension. You'd think that nugget of information would have generated a buzz on this board.

NJReds
08-01-2007, 11:20 AM
... likely a load of crap.

I heard it was Chris Booker, Branden Claussen, Hector Carrasco and Chris Michalek...:p:

But seriously. What does it say about Dunn's value when one of his biggest fans turns down a deal for him over a couple of prospects from a 'barren' minor league system? This after coming to agreement on a contract extension.

jojo
08-01-2007, 11:24 AM
Batting average, K's, and defense are the primary reasons Tex is worth more than Dunn IMO. Plus, he's under Atlanta's control through 2008.

Before really thinking about it, control and defense were the big separators in my mind. Tex is considered an excellent defender. Dunn, well, we're familiar with his reputation.

Going forward, Pecota predicts very similar VORPS for the two but since TX is a firstbaseman and Dunn is a leftfielder that means Pecota thinks Tex's bat will be better going forward (1b has a higher replacement level than LF). Assuming both hit their weighted mean projections and using 500 AB as a baseline, the expected difference is roughly 65 RC between '08 and '11 (which actually surprised me by its magnitude). Pecota likes Teixiera ALOT better than Dunn.

Then when considering their overall values, defensive runs get added onto Tex and a good many get subtracted from Dunn's impact on the RS/RA equation.

Really Teixiera isn't a very good comp for Dunn as Tex could very well be worth somewhere between 1.5-2.5 wins more a season than Dunn.

flyer85
08-01-2007, 11:24 AM
I heard it was Chris Booker, Branden Claussen, Hector Carrasco and Chris Michalek...:p:

But seriously. What does it say about Dunn's value when one of his biggest fans turns down a deal for him ovrt a couple of prospects from a 'barren' minor league system? This after coming to agreement on a contract extension.when you're team is bad and you're system is barren you obviously cannot afford to trade what little you do have. Plus JB knows that with the current position(last in the NL) of the Nats he can still make a waiver deal. He got Krivsky to take crap last year, maybe the same will happen again.

I wouldn't be shocked if a trade happens in the next few weeks. Cordero is a decent closer who is about to get very expensive.

lollipopcurve
08-01-2007, 11:28 AM
There's no way a team and prospective acquisition should be negotiating an extension BEFORE the players in the trade have been agreed upon. Either Welsh doesn't know what he's talking about, or the talks were handled in some bizarre backwards way.

flyer85
08-01-2007, 11:34 AM
the talks were handled in some bizarre backwards way.if a trade was not agreed upon then any formal discussions would be tampering. I read a quote somewhere that supposedly Dunn had said he would like to play again with Kearns and could see himself signing an extension. That is probably what Welsh was actually referring to.

SteelSD
08-01-2007, 11:41 AM
if a trade was not agreed upon then any formal discussions would be tampering. I read a quote somewhere that supposedly Dunn had said he would like to play again with Kearns and could see himself signing an extension. That is probably what Welsh was actually referring to.

That could be the case. Or it just could be that Bowden didn't figure the last fine for tampering he received (Griffey) was a big deal.

lollipopcurve
08-01-2007, 11:55 AM
That could be the case. Or it just could be that Bowden didn't figure the last fine for tampering he received (Griffey) was a big deal.

A very good possibility.

KronoRed
08-01-2007, 11:55 AM
Yeah I doubt very much that Bowden cares about rules like that.

He will likely be dealt in the summer of 2008 for kibbles and bits.

Just as long as they don't strike out. :D

Chip R
08-01-2007, 01:45 PM
That could be the case. Or it just could be that Bowden didn't figure the last fine for tampering he received (Griffey) was a big deal.


Well, he probably didn't have to pay it so what does he care?

REDREAD
08-01-2007, 11:01 PM
I heard it was Chris Booker, Branden Claussen, Hector Carrasco and Chris Michalek...:p:
.

One of my kids got a Michalek autograph this year, I believe he's in Columbus now, which is the Nat's farm system.

So he could've been offered in theory :)

REDREAD
08-01-2007, 11:04 PM
That could be the case. Or it just could be that Bowden didn't figure the last fine for tampering he received (Griffey) was a big deal.

Heck, if we want to start a conspiracy theory, let me toss this out.

The Reds and Nats tentatively agreed on most of the details. Bowden asked to negotiate with Dunn since time was running out and was granted permission. But Bowden had no intention of making the trade, he just wanted to know what it would take to sign Dunn in Wash and give Dunn the sales pitch for when he's a FA. :)

jojo
08-02-2007, 12:14 AM
Heck, if we want to start a conspiracy theory, let me toss this out.

The Reds and Nats tentatively agreed on most of the details. Bowden asked to negotiate with Dunn since time was running out and was granted permission. But Bowden had no intention of making the trade, he just wanted to know what it would take to sign Dunn in Wash and give Dunn the sales pitch for when he's a FA. :)

Bowden would never do something that devious especially to a guy like Krivsky.

SteelSD
08-02-2007, 12:36 AM
Heck, if we want to start a conspiracy theory, let me toss this out.

The Reds and Nats tentatively agreed on most of the details. Bowden asked to negotiate with Dunn since time was running out and was granted permission. But Bowden had no intention of making the trade, he just wanted to know what it would take to sign Dunn in Wash and give Dunn the sales pitch for when he's a FA. :)

While I like your thinking, Mr. Mulder, I'm with jojo. If you're going to risk a tampering fine for your organization, you'd better be operating in good faith.

But that is a possibility I hadn't considered so X-Files pseudo rep points for you. :)

mbgrayson
08-03-2007, 12:28 PM
From a comment posted on a DC blog called Capitol Punishment (http://dcbb.blogspot.com/2007/08/pointless-speculation-from-bloggerbeat.html):

"I preface this comment with a clear understanding there is absolutely no reason to give any credence to this whatsoever, but I heard from "credible sources" - and they were credible, to my best knowledge - the following:
Cordero to Detroit
Prospects from Detroit to Cincinnati
Dunn to Washington
This was active on deadline day. Again...from what I heard. I didn't hear what killed it.
FWIW"

The main blog writer dismisses John Fay's post of a rumor that Bowden just strung Krivsky along for sport.

Chip R
08-03-2007, 12:40 PM
From a comment posted on a DC blog called Capitol Punishment (http://dcbb.blogspot.com/2007/08/pointless-speculation-from-bloggerbeat.html):

"I preface this comment with a clear understanding there is absolutely no reason to give any credence to this whatsoever, but I heard from "credible sources" - and they were credible, to my best knowledge - the following:
Cordero to Detroit
Prospects from Detroit to Cincinnati
Dunn to Washington
This was active on deadline day. Again...from what I heard. I didn't hear what killed it.
FWIW"

The main blog writer dismisses John Fay's post of a rumor that Bowden just strung Krivsky along for sport.

I give about as much credibility to John Fay's opinion as I do to whatever comes out of JimBo's piehole.