PDA

View Full Version : Your 2008 Reds -- now at AAA?



Kc61
08-02-2007, 10:37 AM
Remarkable that somehow all four of the Reds top prospects, Bailey, Bruce, Votto and Cueto are with the AAA team. In some cases it may be temporary, but I doubt it. I think Krivsky has decided that the minor league system is ready to provide the major league team with a real boost. Almost immediately.

Krivsky didn't run to make deals for second tier minor league talent because he thinks he has top tier talent ready to go. Add a couple of others, perhaps Pelland -- now a reliever at AAA -- and perhaps Dumatrait if things go well, perhaps Roenicke the hard throwing reliever in AA, and the Reds may indeed have a youth spurt by early next season. And Maloney, just acquired, is pretty dominant at AA, could find himself in the bigs sometime next season.

Making room for these new young pitchers is easy, the current Reds staff has lots of guys who can be dropped. Votto is easy too, just don't pick up Hatteberg next year, or move him to the bench. Bruce is a little harder, requires moving an outfielder, but obviously it will happen sooner or a bit later.

Forgot Cantu and Dickerson, two guys I can easily see in bench roles with next year's Reds.

So maybe there is a plan. Maybe Krivsky sees next year's Reds over at Louisville.

RedLegSuperStar
08-02-2007, 10:45 AM
You have to believe Votto and Bailey are locks. Cueto and Bruce might start the season in AAA but I could see them getting called up during the 2008 season. On Bruce.. he has been pretty consistent at Louisville.. and depending on the moves made from now until the start of the 2008 season. One thing is for sure the future is bright..

flyer85
08-02-2007, 11:00 AM
You have to believe Votto and Bailey are locks. ... Bailey's peripheral numbers indicate he isn't ready yet. Cueto on the other hand ...

RedLegSuperStar
08-02-2007, 11:19 AM
... Bailey's peripheral numbers indicate he isn't ready yet. Cueto on the other hand ...

2007 AAA:

Bailey is 6-3 (12 Starts) w/ 3.07 ERA

Cueto is 2-0 (2 Starts) w/ 1.64 ERA

Minor League Totals:

Bailey: 24-13 (66 Games / 59 Starts) w/ 3.26 ERA

Cueto: 26-12 (62 Games / 54 Starts) w/ 3.29 ERA

Although they are pretty much identical overall I still think Cueto starts in AAA just because he hasn't pitched at the AAA level that long. Now I know a lot of teams by pass prospects with limited starts if at all at the AAA level.. I got to believe they wont rush the 21 year old.

Red Leader
08-02-2007, 11:21 AM
... Bailey's peripheral numbers indicate he isn't ready yet. Cueto on the other hand ...

I'm just now starting to come around to the idea that Cueto may be the better prospect of the two...

flyer85
08-02-2007, 11:26 AM
KK/B Rate(Dom) BB/9

Bailey 59/32 4.3
Cueto 125/28 2.0

There is no way Bailey is ready for major league success with a Dom under 2 and a BB rate over 4. There numbers are a recipe for failure.

puca
08-02-2007, 11:47 AM
Some of Bailey's struggles might have to do with the sore/weak groin he has been pitching with (if indeed it has been a nagging problem). His secondary pitches certiainly are not ready for a successfull stint as a major league starter, but assuming that the groin is the reason for some of the lost zip on his fastball, he might be capable of going all Papelbon on us in 2008. Which might not be such a bad thing.

deltachi8
08-02-2007, 11:52 AM
The Reds may think Bailey is a certianty for them in 2008 but I think the reality is he needs another yearat least in the minors.

flyer85
08-02-2007, 11:53 AM
he might be capable of going all Papelbon on us in 2008. Which might not be such a bad thing.Papelbon has a plus fastball and a nasty splitter for an out pitch. Bailey is lacking the nasty out pitch. he needs to work on refining his command.

BRM
08-02-2007, 11:54 AM
I hope the "Cueto is too short to be a starter" thoughts are gone now.

flyer85
08-02-2007, 11:59 AM
I hope the "Cueto is too short to be a starter" thoughts are gone now.The Reds need quality pitchers as starters and relievers. If Cueto doesn't develop the 3rd pitch to be a quality MLB starter he could be just as valuable in the bullpen.

BRM
08-02-2007, 12:15 PM
The Reds need quality pitchers as starters and relievers. If Cueto doesn't develop the 3rd pitch to be a quality MLB starter he could be just as valuable in the bullpen.

Good point. I won't be disappointed at all if he ends up as a quality back end reliever. I'd prefer to see him make it as a starter though.

flyer85
08-02-2007, 12:19 PM
I'd prefer to see him make it as a starter though.that would be the best thing but if it doesn't it may not be bad.

Johnny Footstool
08-02-2007, 12:25 PM
I think it's a bad idea to count on unproven minor leaguers to have a positive impact in 2008. They might get called up, but it's unlikely that they'll be able to sustain any real success over a full season. It will probably be 2010 before they're fully functional major leaguers, and by then the Reds will have aching needs in many places. That's why it's important for Krivsky to acquire some second-tier talent.

M2
08-02-2007, 12:26 PM
My take on Bailey and Cueto is that neither should be pitching in the majors next year.

Pitching development requires patience and the sober perspective that the final steps are the hardest. A franchise must constantly fight the temptation to promote these kids before they're ready because it really screws them up when it happens.

I'd tell both kids that if they can dominate AAA for the entire 2008 season then perhaps they'll be pitching in the majors in September.

Kc61
08-02-2007, 12:29 PM
By Memorial Day 2008 I can see any of the following being with the Reds, and I don't mean as emergency call ups, I mean as promoted players with possible futures.

Bailey, Cueto, Pelland, Roenicke, Viola, Dumatrait, Maloney. Outside chance would be Carlos Fisher, probably too soon for him. Bray, if you want to count him with this group.

Bruce, Votto, Cantu, Dickerson. Outside chance for Herr, if they decide he is the next Keppinger.

I think this is Krivsky's way to change the team. He has moved top minor leaguers through the system very quickly this year, for better or worse.

BRM
08-02-2007, 12:30 PM
I'd tell both kids that if they can dominate AAA for the entire 2008 season then perhaps they'll be pitching in the majors in September.

I could live with that.

M2
08-02-2007, 12:31 PM
Bailey, Cueto, Pelland, Roenicke, Viola, Dumatrait, Maloney.

And by Labor Day we'd likely find the team and those arms in a smoldering ruin.

indy_dave00
08-02-2007, 12:32 PM
REDS fans when Josh Hamilton comes off the disabled list ( if he does ) , he will be sent to Louisville for rehab. Perhaps time for a fans roadtrip to Louisville to watch an outfield of Votto- Bruce and Hamilton perform. Seems Reds are bound and determined to make Votto a left fielder. Get a preview of the future now.

Perhaps Bailey or Cueto will be pitching , sad but might be more entertaining than a Reds game.

Kc61
08-02-2007, 12:36 PM
And by Labor Day we'd likely find the team and those arms in a smoldering ruin.


Likely is too strong. I think the Reds, particularly if they hire the right manager, will baby the arms even if in the major leagues.
But moving guys up too fast is a risk.

Indeed, we have to keep in mind how incredibly young these guys are. Everyone is clamoring for Votto in Cincy, but he is only 23. Still young enough for more development, particularly since he hasn't had a dominant year in 2007. Bailey and Cueto are 21. Some of the less obvious prospects, like Dumatrait, for example, are readier in terms of minor league time and experience. (The exception is Bruce. I'm ready to vote for him for NL All-Star right now. Unreal prospect.)

It's just obvious to me that Krivsky's only way of delivering hope to the fans is through this group of high minor league guys. They won't spend for big free agents, they aren't doing very well in the trade market.

Now, hopefully, some more potential top players will develop in the lower minor leagues. I don't see any obvious Cuetos or Bruces down there so far, but it takes time to know.

cincrazy
08-02-2007, 12:41 PM
My take on Bailey and Cueto is that neither should be pitching in the majors next year.

Pitching development requires patience and the sober perspective that the final steps are the hardest. A franchise must constantly fight the temptation to promote these kids before they're ready because it really screws them up when it happens.

I'd tell both kids that if they can dominate AAA for the entire 2008 season then perhaps they'll be pitching in the majors in September.

:clap:

M2
08-02-2007, 01:00 PM
Likely is too strong. I think the Reds, particularly if they hire the right manager, will baby the arms even if in the major leagues.

You can't baby arms that aren't ready, you can only send them out for a beating.

Homer Bailey and Johnny Cueto are babies. If the Reds really like them, they'll let them grow up before sending them to war. Love should not involve mutilation.

Matt Maloney is going to need AAA. Roenicke and Viola will probably need AA and AAA before they're ready.

Pelland still hasn't conquered AA despite his bullpen conversion (still lacks control). Dumatrait just isn't very good. Frankly, if the Reds have him on the pitching staff, they've got severe problems (for instance his start today is an ill omen).

Anyway, I recommend the Reds not imitate the promotional debacles of their recent past.

KronoRed
08-02-2007, 01:03 PM
Likely is too strong. I think the Reds, particularly if they hire the right manager, will baby the arms even if in the major leagues.


I'm not so sure about that, if this team is "in the race" next year I can see whomever the manager is leaving a Bailey or a Cueto out if they are doing well, especially if the bullpen is still unreliable

Anyway, it's a good time to catch a Bats game, they are only 5 out of the WC :D

flyer85
08-02-2007, 01:04 PM
Their numbers will tell when they are the ready to get major league hitters out.

What you have to closely monitor is the workload. While they may be ready to get major league hitters out they are not likely ready to pitch 200 innings or more.

The young guys need to be on strict pitch counts. It's why you can't have a rotation full of youngsters. It's also why I don't mind seeing younger guys work out of the pen when they first come up to the majors. It is a way to ease them in while not putting too much stress on their arm.

indy_dave00
08-02-2007, 01:10 PM
Was looking at number of players used by the Reds , Bats and Lookouts this season , 42, 48 , 49 . Seems the Reds are trying to patch the main team with fill ins while pushing any prospect with potential on to challange them at the next level.

Jay Bruce and Johnny Cueto , so far have matched the challanges going from A to AA to AAA IN 4 months. Though many will disagree I like the idea of challanging the kids.

The fact all the movements makes is that the Reds years of bad drafts and bad luck with many arm injuries are really haunting them now. But at least it appears though some players are being rushed , the force feeding has not hurt them.

You can argue perhaps its hurt Bailey , but what I feel its done is show Bailey he needs to listen better to coaches. He's gotten away with doing things his way-now he's been shown he needs to make adjustments. In the long run it will benefit both Homer and the Reds.

People seem to have forgotten Bill Bray , he just turned 24. Though this year is one he'd like to forget he still has very good stuff 25 strikeouts in 15 2/3 innings at Louisville just 5 walks. He should be up soon and get his mlb career back on track.

BRM
08-02-2007, 01:28 PM
John Fay's latest.



From mlb.com: Sammy Sosa, fifth on baseball's all-time home run list and the Rangers' leader in RBIs, will ride out the final two months of the season as a reserve outfielder and occasional pinch-hitter.

Sosa was OK with the decision. "They've got some young guys they want to look at," he said.

Which brings up to the Reds. When are they going to turn the page on the this year? Jeff Conine, who's probably going to retire, started the last two games at first base. Joey Votto, meanwhile, remains in the Triple-A. Victor Santos is in the bullpen, while Brad Salmon, Gary Majewski and Bill Bray are at Triple-A.

I have no idea if Votto, Majewski, Bray and Salmon are ready for the big leagues, and maybe the Reds baseball people are convinced they're not. But isn't now a good time to find out?

remdog
08-02-2007, 01:31 PM
The Reds had a good plan in place with Bailey but they gave into the temptation of calling him up and it exploded in their face.

Hopefully, next spring the Reds only bring Homer to Cincinnati if he shows that he can hit his locations consistantly and has improved his secondary pitches.

The amount of work Homer gets the rest of this year may tell whether or not he's in the Reds opening day plans for '08. IMO, he's got a long way to go.

If Homer gets little or no work from now until Oct. do the Reds send him to the AZ Fall League? I'd certainly consider it.

Rem

RedLegSuperStar
08-02-2007, 01:35 PM
John Fay's latest.

To some extent I agree with him. I know that's what September is for.. but the Reds are not going anywhere this year. I would really like to see Votto up here starting at 1st. I think you move Conine either to the bench or to another team. If its to the bench then Bellhorn goes down.

I'd like to see Salmon up here as well.

flyer85
08-02-2007, 01:43 PM
As near as I can tell the Reds are still in it to win as many games as possible.

BRM
08-02-2007, 01:45 PM
As near as I can tell the Reds are still in it to win as many games as possible.

That's sure the impression they are giving. Player evaluation for next year doesn't seem to be on the radar just yet. Maybe they are waiting for September?

KronoRed
08-02-2007, 01:47 PM
That's sure the impression they are giving. Player evaluation for next year doesn't seem to be on the radar just yet. Maybe they are waiting for September?

Or being mathematically eliminated

indy_dave00
08-02-2007, 02:11 PM
Sending down Salmon with an era under 4 and Ramirez after he works 2 scoreless innings , while Coffey has a 5.56 era and Victor Santos no future here don't really point to winning as many games as possible to me.

Scary part to me is sending down Ramirez as you recall Dumatrait. To me it signals belief they will need to keep Santos here to work 2-3 innings tonite after Dumatrait is knocked out.

Kc61
08-02-2007, 03:44 PM
Sending down Salmon with an era under 4 and Ramirez after he works 2 scoreless innings , while Coffey has a 5.56 era and Victor Santos no future here don't really point to winning as many games as possible to me.

Scary part to me is sending down Ramirez as you recall Dumatrait. To me it signals belief they will need to keep Santos here to work 2-3 innings tonite after Dumatrait is knocked out.

Interesting how this works. Dumatrait enters the major leagues as a RedsZone pariah. Matt Belisle, who had far worse AAA numbers his last minor league season, is a RedsZone hero. (And Belisle's major league results haven't seemed to change that perception.)

I'm voting that Phil D will succeed. So there.

indy_dave00
08-02-2007, 03:48 PM
KC , I hope you are right. But from watching Dumatriat at Louisville I was underwelmed. Either way 1 start will not be a true indication, good or bad. I just personally don't see Phil as a mlb starting pitcher , middle reliever -yes.

I've never been sold on Matt Belisle as a starter either though . A solid reliever yes but not a starter.

Matt700wlw
08-02-2007, 03:48 PM
I'm just now starting to come around to the idea that Cueto may be the better prospect of the two...

I've heard this as well...and not just from people like us.

Kc61
08-02-2007, 03:59 PM
KC , I hope you are right. But from watching Dumatriat at Louisville I was underwelmed. Either way 1 start will not be a true indication, good or bad. I just personally don't see Phil as a mlb starting pitcher , middle reliever -yes.

I've never been sold on Matt Belisle as a starter either though . A solid reliever yes but not a starter.

I only saw PD in spring training, have never seen him pitch in a game, so I don't have any real basis to judge. I've followed his career, though, and there have been periods in which he has dominated, although mainly at AA and below.

Obviously, I'm hoping for the best with him. Just interested how certain prospects fall into the "good" and "bad" categories around here and sometimes these labels don't change, regardless of performance.

indy_dave00
08-02-2007, 04:15 PM
Kc61 , I think because Dumatrait has been bought along slowly under the radar and doesn't throw hard a lot don't see him as attractive. For me I base it on his inconsistant control , he'll have to be a nibbler . Like Livingston when he's hitting his spots he'll be tough , but lacking the power arm , any location problem and you are toast.

A second and 3d time thru the order big league hitters adjust , thats why to me Livingston , Dumatrait and Belisle are long relievers they all lack that real out pitch . As such they struggle the 2nd and 3rd time a hitter sees them and makes the adjustments.

Kc61
08-02-2007, 04:32 PM
Kc61 , I think because Dumatrait has been bought along slowly under the radar and doesn't throw hard a lot don't see him as attractive. For me I base it on his inconsistant control , he'll have to be a nibbler . Like Livingston when he's hitting his spots he'll be tough , but lacking the power arm , any location problem and you are toast.

A second and 3d time thru the order big league hitters adjust , thats why to me Livingston , Dumatrait and Belisle are long relievers they all lack that real out pitch . As such they struggle the 2nd and 3rd time a hitter sees them and makes the adjustments.

Sounds right. When I saw him throw in spring training, a year after his surgery, I thought Dumatrait threw with reasonable velocity. But that doesn't mean he has an out pitch or that he fools anybody. Belisle throws 94 and doesn't fool the hitters well enough at this point. (Livingston doesn't throw hard and is pretty deceptive, but maybe not deceptive enough.)

Well, we'll see how it goes. In any event, it's about time Dumatrait got his shot, so here it is.

I think this is the beginning of a long line of Reds minor league pitchers getting their shot. We've seen it with relievers this year and with Bailey for awhile, but it's going to happen very frequently now, I suspect. Of course, have to give them enough time to settle in before deciding up or down.

BRM
08-02-2007, 04:37 PM
Interesting how this works. Dumatrait enters the major leagues as a RedsZone pariah. Matt Belisle, who had far worse AAA numbers his last minor league season, is a RedsZone hero. (And Belisle's major league results haven't seemed to change that perception.)


I don't know about Belisle being a RedsZone hero but there are probably more who like him than don't.

Belisle was 2 years younger than Dumatrait during his last full AAA season. He also posted better BB/9 and K/9 numbers but Dumatrait has him in ERA and WHIP.

I'll be pulling for PD tonight like always. I'm just not expecting much out of him.

Kc61
08-02-2007, 04:43 PM
I don't know about Belisle being a RedsZone hero but there are probably more who like him than don't.

Belisle was 2 years younger than Dumatrait during his last full AAA season. He also posted better BB/9 and K/9 numbers but Dumatrait has him in ERA and WHIP.

I'll be pulling for PD tonight like always. I'm just not expecting much out of him.

Belisle's last AAA season he allowed 192 hits in 162 innings, a WHIP of 1.49. Currently with the Reds, 152 hits in 124 innings, a WHIP of 1.46.

Dumatrait at AAA this year allowed 109 hits in 118 innings, WHIP of 1.32.

BRM
08-02-2007, 04:45 PM
Belisle's last AAA season he allowed 162 hits in 192 innings, a WHIP of 1.49. Currently with the Reds, 152 hits in 124 innings, a WHIP of 1.46.

Dumatrait at AAA this year allowed 109 hits in 118 innings, WHIP of 1.32.

I know. I said Dumatrait has the edge in WHIP so far although he's doing it at an older age. I think most view Belisle as having the better arm though.