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Chip R
08-02-2007, 09:46 AM
Now that the season is winding down, talk turns to what payroll will be for next season. Now I'm in the dark as much as anyone with regards on what the Reds will do next year but what I'm attempting to do with this thread is basically show what the 2008 payroll could be if all players that the Reds do not have an obligation to in 2008 aren't re-signed. I have included Adam Dunn in this list simply because the only obligation the Reds have to him in 2008 is a $500K buyout. Whether or not they will exercise the option doesn't matter as far as this post goes.

This is broken down into 5 sections: 1. Arbitration eligible players (players who have 3-6 years in the big leagues) 2. Arbitration ineligible players (Players with less than 3 years in the majors. 3. Salary increases (players who have over 6 years service time and are signed through next season and will receive a raise for sure) 4. Salary decreases (players with over 6 years service time who can be free agents) 5. No changes in salary (Players who are signed through next season who will receive the same salary)

The 2008 salaries for the arbitration eligible and ineligible players are guesstimates and shouldn't really be too far off in what they will make in reality. There are a lot of players in the arbitration ineligible area and obviously all those guys didn't make what it says they did this year nor will they make what I estimate them to make in 08 because a lot of them will be in the minors. But that's not going to throw off the total by that much either way. I also had them being paid their full salary even if they were here a short time and are on split contracts but are still in the Reds organization. It's too much of a pain to figure out what Brad Salmon made while he was in the major leagues. The $390K figure is the minimum salary next season.

Most of these numbers are from JaxRed's (http://www.redsinsite.com/playerinfo/salary_chart.php) site. It's also crosschecked with ESPN's and Cot's figures. The only salaries that I'll differ on are Jr.'s and Arroyo's. No matter how you slice it, the Reds are laying out $12.5M a year for Jr. And Arroyo's salary for next year includes his bonus. All players included either are or were on the 40 man roster at one time or another this year or were on the payroll last year and the Reds either exercised their buyout (as in Paul Wilson's case) or are paying part of their salary (as in Jason LaRue's case). Let me know if you have any questions or if you think the figures are wrong.



Arbitration Eligible 2007 Salary 2008 Salary
Kirk Saarloos 1,200,000 1,750,000
Brandon Phillips 407,500 1,800,000
Victor Santos 500,000 600,000
Matt Belisle 390,000 500,000
Total Arb Eligible $2,497,500 $4,650,000

Arbitration Ineligible 2007 Salary 2008 Salary
Homer Bailey 380,000 400,000
Bill Bray 382,500 400,000
Jared Burton 380,000 390,000
John Coutlangus 380,000 400,000
Phil Dumatrait 380,000 400,000
Edwin Encarnacion 407,500 550,000
Michael Gosling 380,000 400,000
Josh Hamilton 380,000 450,000
Norris Hopper 380,000 400,000
Jeff Keppinger 380,000 400,000
Bobby Livingston 380,000 400,000
Pedro Lopez 250,000 390,000
Gary Majewski 390,000 420,000
Marcus McBeth 380,000 400,000
Brad Salmon 380,000 390,000
Ricky Stone 380,000 450,000
Joey Votto 0 390,000
Total Arb Ineligible $5,990,000 $7,030,000

Salary Increases 2007 Salary 2008 Salary
Todd Coffey 400,000 925,000
Aaron Harang 4,275,000 6,750,000
David Weathers 2,500,000 2,750,000
Bronson Arroyo 3,800,000 6,400,000
Ryan Freel 2,650,000 3,000,000
Juan Castro 925,000 975,000
Alex Gonzalez 3,500,000 4,625,000
Mike Stanton 2,750,000 3,000,000
David Ross 1,600,000 2,525,000
Total Salary Increase $22,400,000 $30,950,000

Salary Decreases 2007 Salary 2008 Salary
Scott Hatteberg 1,500,000 175,000
Mark Bellhorn 380,000 0
Jeff Conine 2,000,000 0
Rheal Cormier 2,250,000 0
Chris Denorfia 80,000 0
Adam Dunn 10,500,000 500,000
Eddie Guardado 500,000 0
Jason LaRue 2,950,000 0
Kyle Lohse 2,800,000 0
Eric Milton 9,000,000 0
Chad Moeller 700,000 0
Javier Valentin 1,250,000 0
Paul Wilson 850,000 0
Total Salary Decrease $34,760,000 $675,000

No Changes In Salary 2007 Salary 2008 Salary
Ken Griffey, Jr. 12,500,000 12,500,000
Total No Changes $12,500,000 $12,500,000

Total $78,147,500 $55,805,000

redsmetz
08-02-2007, 09:53 AM
You've got Saarloos listed twice; both under arbitration eligible and salary decreases.

NJReds
08-02-2007, 09:58 AM
How is Dunn only making $500K next year? I thought his option was for 13M? (Edit: I see the Dunn explanation, but I think we have to assume they'll p/u the option, although with this front office, who knows.)

Nice to see Milton coming off the books. Unfortunately, it's not so nice to see Stanton on the books for $3M.

redsmetz
08-02-2007, 10:00 AM
How is Dunn only making $500K next year? I thought his option was for 13M?

Nice to see Milton coming off the books. Unfortunately, it's not so nice to see Stanton on the books for $3M.

I think he's only examining outright obligations - if the Reds don't exercise Dunn's option, they're only out the $500,000 buyout.

NJReds
08-02-2007, 10:01 AM
I think he's only examining outright obligations - if the Reds don't exercise Dunn's option, they're only out the $500,000 buyout.

Yeah. I saw that when I re-read the first post.

BuckeyeRedleg
08-02-2007, 10:05 AM
Just out of curiousity, has Bellhorn really been making $380K while spending his season in AAA? I'm not sure how that works.

Good work, Chip.

Chip R
08-02-2007, 10:07 AM
You've got Saarloos listed twice; both under arbitration eligible and salary decreases.


The salary decrease was wishful thinking, I suppose. ;) Thanks for pointing that out. It's fixed now.

Chip R
08-02-2007, 10:09 AM
Just out of curiousity, has Bellhorn really been making $380K while spending his season in AAA? I'm not sure how that works.

Good work, Chip.


As I said in my preface, even a guy who has been in AAA all year, if he's on the roster for a day, I'm going to say he was paid his big league salary whatever that may be. It's too hard to figure what pro-rated salaries are and with guys like that it isn't going to make a lot of difference.

BuckeyeRedleg
08-02-2007, 10:09 AM
edit: just saw your response. Thanks.

I show Valentin with a $75K buyout and Hatteberg with a $150K buyout.

Funny. If the Reds let Dunn go, they essentially would be refusing to add only $2M to his salary, since they would be committed to the 500K buyout and he made $10.5 M in '07. This even makes Daugherty's article the other day all the more absurd.

RichRed
08-02-2007, 01:30 PM
Funny. If the Reds let Dunn go, they essentially would be refusing to add only $2M to his salary, since they would be committed to the 500K buyout and he made $10.5 M in '07. This even makes Daugherty's article the other day all the more absurd.

Yep.

Nice work, Chip! :thumbup:

camisadelgolf
08-02-2007, 05:37 PM
I believe Hatteberg is due to earn $1.85M next year, not $1.675M (and depending on plate appearances, it could be as much as $2M). Jerry Gil can be added to that list since I believe he's being paid the ML minimum this year. Also, I believe Moeller isn't earning all of the $700,000 (he might not even be earning half of that). Enrique Cruz and Elizardo Ramirez had ML salaries for short periods of time this year, too. I think Jorge Cantu has a ML salary of $410,000 this year. And finally, if Guardado returns this year, he could earn more than $500,000. I hope that helps. Thank you for posting this.

Marc D
08-02-2007, 06:22 PM
Salary Increases

Coffey
Freel
Castro
Stanton
Ross

for a cool 2M

I'm thinking thats not so good.

Chip R
08-03-2007, 10:08 AM
I believe Hatteberg is due to earn $1.85M next year, not $1.675M (and depending on plate appearances, it could be as much as $2M). Jerry Gil can be added to that list since I believe he's being paid the ML minimum this year. Also, I believe Moeller isn't earning all of the $700,000 (he might not even be earning half of that). Enrique Cruz and Elizardo Ramirez had ML salaries for short periods of time this year, too. I think Jorge Cantu has a ML salary of $410,000 this year. And finally, if Guardado returns this year, he could earn more than $500,000. I hope that helps. Thank you for posting this.

Hatteberg has a club option for next season which is $175K if he gets 500 PAs, IIRC. My figures represent what the Reds payroll could be if they let everyone they don't have under contract for next year walk. That's why I have them paying Dunn only $500K.

You may be right about Gil (oh, why do you have to pick on ol' Gil?). He hasn't been on the active roster this year so I left him off. Same with Cantu. I forgot about Cruz and Lizard was called up right when I finalized this.

Guardado has more clauses in his deal than a Hollywood pre-nup. I'm putting down what I expect the Reds to spend on him. I doubt he's going to make a lot - if any - of his incentives so I kept him at $500K.

A little history behind this: Back in 02, I believe, John Allen made the statement that arbitration raises and salary increases were going to eat up the payroll budget for the next season. Therefore they couldn't afford to go after a lot of free agents. So I put together a little spreadsheet of my own to see if it was true. The Reds don't whine anymore about this so it's kind of moot but I like doing this anyway just to see what could happen if they didn't bring back anyone who was under contract for the following season.

GAC
08-03-2007, 10:18 AM
How is Dunn only making $500K next year?

BIG DUMB TEXAN excise tax! :lol:

(sorry - had to throw that out there. back to your regular discussion) ;)

BuckeyeRedleg
08-03-2007, 10:45 AM
One other thing. If they have already paid Arroyo his signing bonus I think it's a little sneaky of them if they add that total to next year's payroll.

Chip R
08-03-2007, 10:51 AM
BIG DUMB TEXAN excise tax! :lol:

(sorry - had to throw that out there. back to your regular discussion) ;)

Too bad you're not a Texan then. :p: :mooner:


One other thing. If they have already paid Arroyo his signing bonus I think it's a little sneaky of them if they add that total to next year's payroll.

Well, that's not them, that's me. I have no idea whether they paid him his bonus or not or when they will do it. Far as I know they are doing it over several years but I'm just saying they are doing it next year. It may be right or it may be wrong but that's what I'm saying.

KronoRed
08-03-2007, 11:07 AM
One other thing. If they have already paid Arroyo his signing bonus I think it's a little sneaky of them if they add that total to next year's payroll.

You mean like they have counted JR's deferred payments against the payroll since 2001? :D

BuckeyeRedleg
08-03-2007, 11:13 AM
Well, that's not them, that's me. I have no idea whether they paid him his bonus or not or when they will do it. Far as I know they are doing it over several years but I'm just saying they are doing it next year. It may be right or it may be wrong but that's what I'm saying.

Gotcha.

JaxRed
08-03-2007, 11:14 AM
You mean like they have counted JR's deferred payments against the payroll since 2001? :D

No, not at all like that... The Red's DO have to set aside money to pay for Juniors deferral, so the savings are not that much.

And on my site, if you check payrolls for future years, I do NOT count his pro-rated bonus, it's counted in the year it was paid. It's a more accurate portrayal of actual monies then when you see payroll numbers from MLB