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View Full Version : Jay Bruce, why not.



FIRELEFT
08-02-2007, 12:28 PM
The business part of baseball aside.
Is there any reason that Jay should not have a Sept.
call up.

TOBTTReds
08-02-2007, 12:30 PM
May rush him a bit...but to me, it is all business. Don't bring him up.

KronoRed
08-02-2007, 12:33 PM
He just got to AAA.

FIRELEFT
08-02-2007, 12:34 PM
I'm not saying they should or should not.
just wondering what everyone is thinking.

Red Leader
08-02-2007, 12:36 PM
Personally, I think you tip your cap to Jay Bruce for playing High A, AA, and then advancing to AAA in one year. That's quite a year, IMO. I don't think there any reason to bring him up to MLB in September. First of all, he'd never play. While I do think it'd be a nice reward for him to bring him up and let him sit on the bench to get a feel for the majors for a month, I think he'd be better off playing in AAA the whole time and then getting to play in the playoffs should Louisville make it there. I'd rather he got at-bats day in and day out at the AAA level, then sit on the bench for a month in the majors.

lollipopcurve
08-02-2007, 12:38 PM
Let's see how he does in August. But I suspect the kid is ready for the bigs come 08, so unless he stumbles in the next 4 weeks I'd give him his introduction this year.

rdiersin
08-02-2007, 12:41 PM
Personally, I think you tip your cap to Jay Bruce for playing High A, AA, and then advancing to AAA in one year. That's quite a year, IMO. I don't think there any reason to bring him up to MLB in September. First of all, he'd never play. While I do think it'd be a nice reward for him to bring him up and let him sit on the bench to get a feel for the majors for a month, I think he'd be better off playing in AAA the whole time and then getting to play in the playoffs should Louisville make it there. I'd rather he got at-bats day in and day out at the AAA level, then sit on the bench for a month in the majors.

Except, Louisville's schedule is done in the first week of September. Are they going to make the playoffs? Their record says probably not, though I don't remember the IL's criteria. So basically it is him sitting at home (or preparing for the AFL, I doubt there really exists sitting at home in professional sports) or him sitting on the bench, maybe playing some, in the majors.

To be honest, it is only his second full professional season. It might not be a bad idea to give his body a bit of a rest.

Danny Serafini
08-02-2007, 12:44 PM
There won't be any at bats to be had in AAA. The Bats season ends on Sept. 3, and they're not looking likely for the playoffs. I'm not entirely sure about bringing him up, but they won't be stealing minor league at bats from him if they do.

Aw heck, I'm too darn slow!

indy_dave00
08-02-2007, 12:46 PM
Its hard to not want to bring Jay Bruce up . The kid has been at 3 levels , hitting over.300 at all of them. People thought at 20 , rushing Jay to AA then AAA might hurt him. But so far Jay has adjusted at each stop.

In 36 games at AA and AAA , his on base and slugging % are even higher than at high A ball. On a selfish note if the Reds recall Jay in Sept., please wait till after Sept.2nd , the Bats are in Indy the end of Aug, 1st couple days of Sept. I'd like a chance to see him in Victory Field before his MLB debut. My son and I watched and talked with Adam Dunn a couple days before he was recalled. We'd like to do the same with Jay Bruce.

thorn
08-02-2007, 12:53 PM
Bringing up young position players have seemed to work for ATL and a few others in the past. Bring him up in Sept, give him a few AB's, let him learn from the likes of Griffey, Hatte, etc. Even being around them could be a positive influence on him. I guess it's better than him sitting at home. Another possiblity is sending him down to the lower level teams that are making the playoffs, maybe he can put them over the top. It would be nice for SOMEONE in this organizaton to get a championship, even if it's at a lower level.

FIRELEFT
08-02-2007, 12:58 PM
Bringing up young position players have seemed to work for ATL and a few others in the past. Bring him up in Sept, give him a few AB's, let him learn from the likes of Griffey, Hatte, etc. Even being around them could be a positive influence on him. I guess it's better than him sitting at home. Another possiblity is sending him down to the lower level teams that are making the playoffs, maybe he can put them over the top. It would be nice for SOMEONE in this organizaton to get a championship, even if it's at a lower level.
can you do this?
Can they come back down for the playoffs after they have been promoted.

BearcatShane
08-02-2007, 01:09 PM
He's hit at every single level they have put him at and I know the major leagues is a different animal but I couldn't see him struggling to badly up here.

indy_dave00
08-02-2007, 02:02 PM
Let Jay Bruce play out the season at Louisville around 30 games. At that point he'll have around 200 AAA at bats. For now getting a 20 year old experience at AAA is a good thing. If he continues to play well which we all expect he will , let him spend September getting a taste of the majors . Maybe even get 50 or so ab's as a Red.

bucksfan2
08-02-2007, 02:19 PM
I have two trains of thought with Bruce.
1. Bring him up, play him and see how he handles major league pitching. He doesn't necessarily have to hit well just show signs of not being over matched. This really doesn't hurt much and if he can't handle it then he has to earn the bigs in spring training. This also gives you a chance to see what you go in a corner outfielder replacement. You want too see what your top prospect can do at the major league level and whether he can handle himself yet.

2.My second train of thought is leave him in AAA. Bringing him up doesn't help because the corner outfield is in place with Dunn and Jr. You also give him some rest and if you bring him up you aren't exactly bringing him up in a winning environment. If the reds were in the middle of a pennant race then he could learn alot from that but bringing him up when most players are just waiting for the season to end won't do much if anything for Bruce.

dougdirt
08-02-2007, 02:23 PM
Jay plays a mean CF. Just happened to play with the other very good defenses centerfielders in the system in Szymanski and Dickerson.

Superdude
08-02-2007, 02:35 PM
Jay plays a mean CF. Just happened to play with the other very good defenses centerfielders in the system in Szymanski and Dickerson.

I thought Bruce was supposed to outgrow center? Would you rather see Bruce or Hamilton playing center next year if Girffey/Dunn is traded?

indy_dave00
08-02-2007, 02:42 PM
Jay Bruce is 6'2 218 , Josh Hamilton 6'4 235 , neither are the typical sized centerfielder . But both have good speed , very strong arms and very good instints as outfielders. Both can play any of the 3 outfield spots.

Bruce and Hamilton are both lefthanded throwers so to me you could toss a coin. I'd probably give a slight edge to Hamilton .

Assuming Josh is ready for rehab assignment in 7-10 days we will find out when Jay and Josh are both at Louisville which way the Reds may be leaning.

11larkin11
08-02-2007, 02:45 PM
I would put Dunn in CF with Hamilton and Bruce surrounding him. That way, Hamilton and Bruce can cover LF, RF, LCF, RCF and Dunn can just catch things if they are hit right at him:D

dougdirt
08-02-2007, 02:48 PM
I thought Bruce was supposed to outgrow center? Would you rather see Bruce or Hamilton playing center next year if Girffey/Dunn is traded?

Give me Bruce. Hamilton has shown to be slightly below average in CF. If Bruce proves to be worse than that, then switch them back up.... but until then, I will take Bruce in CF over Hamilton.

remdog
08-02-2007, 03:32 PM
You could always move Jr. back to CF. ;) :laugh:

Rem

REDblooded
08-02-2007, 04:15 PM
I say give him a shot as the AAA season winds down. Give him a taste in a lost season without too much pressure, that way, he can spend the offseason having a true idea of what he needs to work on to succeed in the majors.

REDblooded
08-02-2007, 04:28 PM
I would also like to mention that I have the 4th waiver claim in my dynasty league............after Upton is claimed, I'll move up to third. That puts me in a prime spot to maybe land Bruce if somebody else, like Joba is called up before Bruce. My team is gonna win the league this year, so I won't have a shot at him in the rookie draft next season......PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE bring him up in September!

RedLegSuperStar
08-02-2007, 08:54 PM
22 games at Louisville.. .304 6 HR's 13 RBI's

reds44
08-02-2007, 08:57 PM
IMHO, Bruce and Hamilton are both COF's ideally.

Both can play CF, but they wouild be better in left and right.

Superdude
08-02-2007, 08:59 PM
It sounds like Bruce and Hamilton have similar defensive tools. Neither are probably pure centerfielders, but it'll be interesting to see how some of the fielding metrics grade Hamilton's play this year. As long as he's not causing Griffey-like defensive head aches, I'd rather see Bruce stay at a position he's comfortable with.

BucksandReds
08-02-2007, 10:05 PM
Why not? Arbitration. He'll come up sometime next year i'd bet.

Degenerate39
08-02-2007, 11:45 PM
With Freel's knee bothering him and Norris Hopper spiking himself could this mean we see Bruce?

dougdirt
08-03-2007, 01:33 AM
It sounds like Bruce and Hamilton have similar defensive tools. Neither are probably pure centerfielders, but it'll be interesting to see how some of the fielding metrics grade Hamilton's play this year. As long as he's not causing Griffey-like defensive head aches, I'd rather see Bruce stay at a position he's comfortable with.

Jay pretty much splits his time in CF/RF, so I would imagine he is comfortable both places.

Degenerate39
08-03-2007, 01:46 AM
IMHO, Bruce and Hamilton are both COF's ideally.

Both can play CF, but they wouild be better in left and right.

You can't waste either of their arms though

Chi-Town Red
08-03-2007, 07:52 AM
Bring the kid up. Nothing to lose you need to see how he reacts to MLB pitching.
Too young? Junior was 19 when he broke in and played the whole year.
Robin Yount? Andruw Jones? shall i go on

Homer Bailey
08-03-2007, 08:05 AM
Give me Bruce. Hamilton has shown to be slightly below average in CF. If Bruce proves to be worse than that, then switch them back up.... but until then, I will take Bruce in CF over Hamilton.

I'm not sure why everyone is so down on Josh in center? I agree he doesn't always get great jumps on balls, but he's certainly better than Freel in center. He usually makes up his bad jumps with his speed. And let's not even talk about the arm. I think Josh is an above average centerfielder.

OesterPoster
08-03-2007, 08:07 AM
With Freel's knee bothering him and Norris Hopper spiking himself could this mean we see Bruce?

I don't fully understand the 40-man roster rules, but I'd think that since Dickerson and Votto are on the 40-man...it'd be a lot easier bringing either of them up than Bruce.

REDblooded
08-03-2007, 10:14 AM
Bring the kid up. Nothing to lose you need to see how he reacts to MLB pitching.
Too young? Junior was 19 when he broke in and played the whole year.
Robin Yount? Andruw Jones? shall i go on


miguel cabrera...jose reyes. Bring him up, let him get a 10 HR head-start on 830!!

indy_dave00
08-03-2007, 10:58 AM
September is early enough. Let him come up then get 50 or so at bats and save his eligability for 2008 Rookie of the Year.

dougdirt
08-03-2007, 11:27 AM
I'm not sure why everyone is so down on Josh in center? I agree he doesn't always get great jumps on balls, but he's certainly better than Freel in center. He usually makes up his bad jumps with his speed. And let's not even talk about the arm. I think Josh is an above average centerfielder.

You can think that all you want. The numbers do not lie. Ryan Freel was 9 plays better than Hamilton was in CF in the first half. Ryan rated out as a +4 defender, while Hamilton was a -5 defender.The biggest difference in the two players is the balls that Freel gets to in the gaps that Hamilton simply doesn't. Hamilton has 5 assists, Freel has 3. Its not like Ryan Freel is Johnny Damon out there with his throwing arm. He has a pretty good arm. Its not Hamiltons, but its still pretty good.

I am not down on Hamilton in center, but he is the Reds 3rd best option on the major league roster behind Freel and Hopper.

guttle11
08-03-2007, 11:33 AM
Jay Bruce is going to be on the Opening Day roster next year. Let him finish out the year in Louisville, take 4 or 6 weeks off to rest up, and then get him working hard and have him ready in April.

dougdirt
08-03-2007, 11:44 AM
Jay Bruce is going to be on the Opening Day roster next year. Let him finish out the year in Louisville, take 4 or 6 weeks off to rest up, and then get him working hard and have him ready in April.

Really? Are the Reds going to hand him a job over Dunn, Griffey or Hamilton? I doubt that. The Reds have Freel and Hopper as well out there. Unless 1 of the big 3 sluggers are moved in the OF, Jay Bruce will not be on the roster. Hamilton is going nowhere. I doubt Dunn is going anywhere considering they didn't trade him away. Griffey.... maybe he gets traded in the offseason. But unless that happens, I don't think Jay is going to be handed a spot, regardless of how well he hits in ST next year, over Dunn, Griffey or Hamilton.

HotCorner
08-03-2007, 11:46 AM
Arizona called up 19 year old Justin Upton.

dougdirt
08-03-2007, 11:48 AM
Arizona called up 19 year old Justin Upton.

Arizona has a glaring need in the outfield too. If the Reds had the Diamondbacks outfield and their situation, Jay Bruce would have been called up. The two situations are not really good.

guttle11
08-03-2007, 01:13 PM
Really? Are the Reds going to hand him a job over Dunn, Griffey or Hamilton? I doubt that. The Reds have Freel and Hopper as well out there. Unless 1 of the big 3 sluggers are moved in the OF, Jay Bruce will not be on the roster. Hamilton is going nowhere. I doubt Dunn is going anywhere considering they didn't trade him away. Griffey.... maybe he gets traded in the offseason. But unless that happens, I don't think Jay is going to be handed a spot, regardless of how well he hits in ST next year, over Dunn, Griffey or Hamilton.

If you're under the assumption that Dunn will be back. I'm not. I think they let him walk and take the picks.

Not saying I agree with it, because I don't, that's just what I read into the situation.

dougdirt
08-03-2007, 01:55 PM
If you're under the assumption that Dunn will be back. I'm not. I think they let him walk and take the picks.

Not saying I agree with it, because I don't, that's just what I read into the situation.

They cant just let him walk and take the picks. They have to offer him arbitration. That will be a lot more than the 13 million they will have to pay him. They also would have to pay him $500,000 just to offer him arbitration. I don't think that makes any business sense. I don't think the Reds do either.

Homer Bailey
08-03-2007, 04:29 PM
You can think that all you want. The numbers do not lie. Ryan Freel was 9 plays better than Hamilton was in CF in the first half. Ryan rated out as a +4 defender, while Hamilton was a -5 defender.The biggest difference in the two players is the balls that Freel gets to in the gaps that Hamilton simply doesn't. Hamilton has 5 assists, Freel has 3. Its not like Ryan Freel is Johnny Damon out there with his throwing arm. He has a pretty good arm. Its not Hamiltons, but its still pretty good.

I am not down on Hamilton in center, but he is the Reds 3rd best option on the major league roster behind Freel and Hopper.


Where do you get those numbers and what do they mean? I've never been a big believer in zone rating and the defensive statistic meters, but more of just what I see from my naked eye. I'm struggling to think of a few plays this year where Freel could have got to a ball in center that Hamilton couldn't have.

I think Hamilton's arm makes up the "fielding" difference between him and Freel, but that is just my opinion.

Cedric
08-03-2007, 05:03 PM
There isn't one defense metric worth a damn, IMO. I know that opinion might frustrate the people that think baseball and it's players can all be rated and objectively judged 100% for their worth.

Eric_Davis
08-03-2007, 05:07 PM
You can think that all you want. The numbers do not lie. Ryan Freel was 9 plays better than Hamilton was in CF in the first half. Ryan rated out as a +4 defender, while Hamilton was a -5 defender.The biggest difference in the two players is the balls that Freel gets to in the gaps that Hamilton simply doesn't. Hamilton has 5 assists, Freel has 3. Its not like Ryan Freel is Johnny Damon out there with his throwing arm. He has a pretty good arm. Its not Hamiltons, but its still pretty good.

I am not down on Hamilton in center, but he is the Reds 3rd best option on the major league roster behind Freel and Hopper.

Hamilton's woes are from being out of baseball for so many years. He has the talent to blow past Freel as a defensive Center Fielder. As he gets more experience, he'll get better and by the end of next year everyone will be satisfied that Hamilton is much, much better defensively than he was the first half of this year.

REDblooded
08-03-2007, 05:11 PM
On Hamilton, put-outs aren't everything. You also have to consider how many runners hold up instead of trying to take an extra base because of his fear factor.

Eric_Davis
08-03-2007, 05:25 PM
They cant just let him walk and take the picks. They have to offer him arbitration. That will be a lot more than the 13 million they will have to pay him. They also would have to pay him $500,000 just to offer him arbitration. I don't think that makes any business sense. I don't think the Reds do either.


You're half right about them having to offer Dunn arbitration in order to receive the 2 high picks.

From 15 days after the end of the World Series until Dec 1, a player who is a Free-Agent may sign with another club and the former club receives compensation.

By Dec 1st, then the former club must offer arbitration to the player.

Doing so makes a lot of business sense to me if they don't believe they can get a better deal than the two picks. They just finished discovering Dunn's value, so they know pretty much what he's worth. I'm certain in the discussions with other clubs, it was brought up, "If that's what he's worth to you now, what will he be worth to you over the winter if we pick up his option and you can have him for a full year?"

Also, there's some misunderstanding on some people's part that the club can't trade Dunn before June 15th. That's not true. That rule only applies to Free Agents that sign "new" contracts during the signing period prior to June 15th, which begins 15 days after the end of the previous World Series. The REDS would be picking up an option of an existing contract if they chose to try to trade him over the winter.


From the CBA:

EligibilityA player with at least 6 years of Major League service time and no contract for the next season is eligible to file for free agency and negotiate with any club.

Filing period

A player has 15 days from the first day after the World Series ends to file for free agency.

His former club retains exclusive negotiating rights until 15-day filing period expires, and the former club may re-sign the player at any time, during or after the filing period. During the filing period, a player who has filed for free agency may engage in general discussions with other clubs but may not discuss contract details or sign with them.

Procedure

A club receives compensation if it loses a free agent before December 2. See Free Agent Compensation.

By December 1, each club must decide whether to offer salary arbitration to their former players who have filed for free agency. A club not offering arbitration may continue to negotiate with the player but does not receive compensation if he signs with another club.

By December 7, player must accept or reject the arbitration offer. If the player accepts the offer, he returns to his club’s 40-man roster. The player and club may continue to negotiate before the February arbitration hearing. See Arbitration. If the player rejects the offer, he may continue to negotiate with any of the 30 clubs.

A free agent who signs a major-league contract may not be traded without his written consent before June 15 of the following season.

Jay Bruce
08-03-2007, 06:10 PM
Dunn has a clause in his contract that stipulates that if the option is picked up, he cannot be traded until after June 15. It was a clause agreed to by both Dunn and the Reds in order to get the 13 million dollar option put into his contract. It has nothing to do with the contract rules in the CBA.

Adam Dunn Contract Info:

http://www.mlb4u.com/profile.php?id=919

Chi-Town Red
08-03-2007, 06:25 PM
great point J.B

Eric_Davis
08-03-2007, 09:57 PM
Dunn has a clause in his contract that stipulates that if the option is picked up, he cannot be traded until after June 15. It was a clause agreed to by both Dunn and the Reds in order to get the 13 million dollar option put into his contract. It has nothing to do with the contract rules in the CBA.

Adam Dunn Contract Info:

http://www.mlb4u.com/profile.php?id=919

Well, then that gives the REDS even fewer options. Unless they were offered during the last month or so, something better than the 2 high draft picks, then it wouldn't make sense for them to pick up his option to try to trade him after June 15th of next year.

The one thing they cannot do, because it would be financial suicide for the team, would be to pick up his option and keep him all year long. If they do pick up his option, then I have to believe they had better options than 2 high draft picks and that Dunn will be traded next June/July.

The REDS have a surplus of outfielders and no pitching. It would be an absolutely moronic financial and baseball decision to pay Dunn any monies for 2008 when it can be spent on pitching unless the return they will get will be much greater than 2 high draft picks.

mth123
08-03-2007, 10:09 PM
Well, then that gives the REDS even fewer options. Unless they were offered during the last month or so, something better than the 2 high draft picks, then it wouldn't make sense for them to pick up his option to try to trade him after June 15th of next year.

The one thing they cannot do, because it would be financial suicide for the team, would be to pick up his option and keep him all year long. If they do pick up his option, then I have to believe they had better options than 2 high draft picks and that Dunn will be traded next June/July.

The REDS have a surplus of outfielders and no pitching. It would be an absolutely moronic financial and baseball decision to pay Dunn any monies for 2008 when it can be spent on pitching unless the return they will get will be much greater than 2 high draft picks.


Except the following year Griffey will be gone. There is no surplus long term. I see 3 starting caliber OF long term. Dunn, Bruce and Hamilton. Dorn maybe someday and Dickerson could be a 4th OF on a team with solid options all around and needs speed and defense on the bench. But Griffey is going to be gone, Freel is toast, Hopper is a late inning caddy at best IMO. Don't even start on Stubbs.

This team needs to move Griffey. The team can not afford to be w/o both Griffey and Dunn in 2009 and letting Dunn go to keep Griffey one more year and then be left with neither seems like a recipe for failure IMO. Bruce provides a replacement for one. There isn't enough to replace both.

guttle11
08-03-2007, 10:46 PM
They cant just let him walk and take the picks. They have to offer him arbitration. That will be a lot more than the 13 million they will have to pay him. They also would have to pay him $500,000 just to offer him arbitration. I don't think that makes any business sense. I don't think the Reds do either.

Well, paying him half a mil is a lot better than picking up an option 26 times that amount if they have no plans for him long term. If and when they offer arbitration, he will probably decline it, and hit the market. The Reds will get 2 first round picks. Seems like perfect sense to me. (Again, not saying I advocate it, but it's the best option based off how the situation looks from the outside)

If they don't view Dunn as a long term option (and let's not kid ourselves here, they don't), then letting him go is the only legit option they have short of trading him this month. Jay Bruce will be ready to go, Hamilton is here, and Griffey is staying on the books. They feel they need his star power. Keeping Dunn in the hopes that the team strikes gold or that his trade value suddenly skyrockets is the same holding pattern this team has been in for nearly a decade now. I don't think Cast will do that again. I think he's ready to move on from Dunn, and onto the young guns.

I also think Cueto will be in the rotation on Opening Day, but that's a discussion for a different day.

SMcGavin
08-04-2007, 12:19 AM
Except the following year Griffey will be gone. There is no surplus long term. I see 3 starting caliber OF long term. Dunn, Bruce and Hamilton. Dorn maybe someday and Dickerson could be a 4th OF on a team with solid options all around and needs speed and defense on the bench. But Griffey is going to be gone, Freel is toast, Hopper is a late inning caddy at best IMO. Don't even start on Stubbs.

My thoughts exactly. It's pretty risky to count on a 2009 outfield of Bruce, Hamilton, and ??. Especially when Bruce hasn't played a day in the bigs yet and Hamilton has played only half of a season.

I'm not even sure the surplus is gonna be a huge issue next year. Dunn, Hamilton, and Griffey will be the opening day starters but are you betting on the latter two to stay healthy all year? This year has been an exception, but KGJ has played more than 110 games only once in the past six seasons. Hamilton is having his own injury problems. I think if you start Bruce in AAA there's a pretty good chance that a spot opens up for him at some point next season. I know I don't want to see Freel and Hopper combining for 500 ABs next year.

mbgrayson
08-04-2007, 12:54 AM
You can think that all you want. The numbers do not lie. Ryan Freel was 9 plays better than Hamilton was in CF in the first half. Ryan rated out as a +4 defender, while Hamilton was a -5 defender.The biggest difference in the two players is the balls that Freel gets to in the gaps that Hamilton simply doesn't. Hamilton has 5 assists, Freel has 3. Its not like Ryan Freel is Johnny Damon out there with his throwing arm. He has a pretty good arm. Its not Hamiltons, but its still pretty good.

I see different numbers for Hamilton (http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/stats/players/index.php?lastName=Hamilton) vs. Freel (http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/stats/players/index.php?lastName=freel)on zone rating. My numbers are from the Hardball Times stats pages:

Pos Inn PO A TE FE FPct DPS DPT BIZ Plays RZR OOZ
Freel CF 444 136 3 2 0 0.986 0 0 125 103 0.824 33
Hamilton CF 385 115 5 0 2 0.984 4 0 113 101 0.894 14

DPS: Double Plays Started, in which the fielder typically gets only an assist.
BIZ: Balls in Zone, a fielding stat that represents the total number of balls that were batted into a fielder's zone while he was in the field.
OOZ: Out Of Zone, or the total number of outs made by a fielder on balls hit outside of his zone.
Zone: The areas on a ballfield in which at least 50% of batted balls are handled for outs. Zones are standardized and defined separately for each position.


Freel does get more balls out of his zone, but Hamilton has a higher percentage in the zone. Hamilton clearly has the stronger arm.

Then of course, there is hitting....
Hamilton: .279/.371/.543 for an OPS of .914 (14 HRs)
Freel: .245/.308/.347 for an OPS of .655 (3 HRs)

Overall, a good metric to use is 'win shares'. Invented by Bill James, Win Shares is a very complicated statistic that takes all the contributions a player makes toward his team’s wins and distills them into a single number that represents the number of wins contributed to the team.

Freel: fielding win shares; 1.4, batting 3.3
Hamilton: fielding win shares; 1.3, batting 8.0

Ryan Freel has played about 11 more games than Josh Hamilton at this point. So Hamilton has more win shares in less games....and the fielding is close to a wash.

Oh and on Jay Bruce...bring him up for a cup of coffee after the AAA season is finished. Let him get the butterflies out this year. After tonight, he is hitting .314/.378/.640 for an OPS of 1.018 with 7 HRs in 24 games.

dougdirt
08-04-2007, 01:31 AM
I see different numbers for Hamilton (http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/stats/players/index.php?lastName=Hamilton) vs. Freel (http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/stats/players/index.php?lastName=freel)on zone rating. My numbers are from the Hardball Times stats pages:

Pos Inn PO A TE FE FPct DPS DPT BIZ Plays RZR OOZ
Freel CF 444 136 3 2 0 0.986 0 0 125 103 0.824 33
Hamilton CF 385 115 5 0 2 0.984 4 0 113 101 0.894 14

DPS: Double Plays Started, in which the fielder typically gets only an assist.
BIZ: Balls in Zone, a fielding stat that represents the total number of balls that were batted into a fielder's zone while he was in the field.
OOZ: Out Of Zone, or the total number of outs made by a fielder on balls hit outside of his zone.
Zone: The areas on a ballfield in which at least 50% of batted balls are handled for outs. Zones are standardized and defined separately for each position.


Freel does get more balls out of his zone, but Hamilton has a higher percentage in the zone. Hamilton clearly has the stronger arm.

Then of course, there is hitting....
Hamilton: .279/.371/.543 for an OPS of .914 (14 HRs)
Freel: .245/.308/.347 for an OPS of .655 (3 HRs)

Overall, a good metric to use is 'win shares'. Invented by Bill James, Win Shares is a very complicated statistic that takes all the contributions a player makes toward his teamís wins and distills them into a single number that represents the number of wins contributed to the team.

Freel: fielding win shares; 1.4, batting 3.3
Hamilton: fielding win shares; 1.3, batting 8.0

Ryan Freel has played about 11 more games than Josh Hamilton at this point. So Hamilton has more win shares in less games....and the fielding is close to a wash.

Oh and on Jay Bruce...bring him up for a cup of coffee after the AAA season is finished. Let him get the butterflies out this year. After tonight, he is hitting .314/.378/.640 for an OPS of 1.018 with 7 HRs in 24 games.

Right, but the amount of balls out of zone that Freel gets to more than makes up for the amount of balls he doesn't get to in his zone.

http://jinaz-reds.blogspot.com/2007/07/mlb-first-half-2007-defensive-ratings.html

Go take a peak at that for a great view on how to use the zone rating and in balls out of zone to get a better overall view of how the defensive ratings go that I was speaking of.

Hitting wise, its not close between the two.... but defensively, Freel is better in CF than Hamilton.

mbgrayson
08-04-2007, 02:32 AM
Right, but the amount of balls out of zone that Freel gets to more than makes up for the amount of balls he doesn't get to in his zone.

http://jinaz-reds.blogspot.com/2007/07/mlb-first-half-2007-defensive-ratings.html

Go take a peak at that for a great view on how to use the zone rating and in balls out of zone to get a better overall view of how the defensive ratings go that I was speaking of.... defensively, Freel is better in CF than Hamilton.

Thanks for the link. I love JinAz's blog, and have been a reader for over a year. He does have great fielding stats, as you point out.

Go to THIS LINK (http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/index.php?view=fielding&linesToDisplay=50&orderBy=zone_rating&direction=DESC&qual_filter=0&season_filter%5B%5D=2007&league_filter%5B%5D=2&team_filter%5B%5D=CIN&pos_filter%5B%5D=8&Submit=Submit), which I found through your link: this is a direct comparison between Reds centerfielders, and like I noted above, Hamilton zone rating is higher. The reason it is different is that it does not factor in 'out of zone' plays into the percentage, which, as you noted, Freel is way ahead.

Still, Freel's fielding win shares, which includes zone rating, is 1.4, compared to 1.3 for Hamilton. Basically a wash, considering that Hamiton has 11 fewer games. I do not know exactly how this is calculated, but I think it includes assists and double-plays started, where Hamilton is way ahead.

Finally, for a different take, here are the links to ESPN's fielding stats, which use zone rating(ZR) and range factor(RF), as provided by STATS, Inc.

Freel (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=4629&context=fielding): ZR= .843 RF= 2.82
Hamilton (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=4652&context=fielding): ZR= .870 RF= 2.81

Again, I submit that they are basically a wash. It all depends on which stats you trust more.

Subjectively, I think Hamilton's arm is so good that it does equalize Freel's range. What doesn't show in the stats is how opposing runners stop trying to take the extra base in respect of Hamilton's arm. The last few weeks I have seen 3 or 4 plays to centerfield on sac flies or hits to center with a runner scoring from second that I said to myslef "Hamilton would have got him" after the runner scored on Freel. Maybe I was wrong....who knows. Maybe some of those runners wouldn't have tried to score on Hamilton.

The new science of fielding stats is still evolving. But I must say Doug, it is nice to have an intelligent discussion of this topic without worrying about errors or fielding percentage.:beerme:

dougdirt
08-04-2007, 02:51 AM
Well my biggest thing is, a centerfielders zone, is typically singles area. When Freel has roughly 8 more games worth on action and 33 plays out of zone compared to 14 for Hamilton, that is a whole lot of doubles/triples that he has saved over Hamilton. So while Hamilton has that cannon and holds runners, I don't think it has made up for 19 out of zone plays, in which at least 75% probably were going for extra bases. I just wish Freel could read the ball off the bat like Hamilton.... or hit like Hamilton.... or throw like him.

mbgrayson
08-04-2007, 03:23 AM
Well my biggest thing is, a centerfielders zone, is typically singles area. When Freel has roughly 8 more games worth on action and 33 plays out of zone compared to 14 for Hamilton, that is a whole lot of doubles/triples that he has saved over Hamilton. So while Hamilton has that cannon and holds runners, I don't think it has made up for 19 out of zone plays, in which at least 75% probably were going for extra bases. I just wish Freel could read the ball off the bat like Hamilton.... or hit like Hamilton.... or throw like him.

Some of Freel's plays out of zone are surely in the gap and saved doubles or triples. Many are of the running forward and diving variety, which saves a single.

The other thing to look at is that Freel's ZR and RF are dropping, and he is 31 years old. One also wonders what impact his all-out play will have on whether he continues to have a high 'plays out of zone' number. How many more concussions can the man get? By the way, was his collision with Hopper one of those "plays out of zone"? I imagine it was...although I think Freel was playing rightfield in that game.

Hamilton is still learning. He may get better jumps on balls with more experience. He is only 26, but who knows how durable he will be given his personal history.

The other thing is that we are looking only at raw numbers of "plays out of zone". We don't get to see how many chances each fielder had to try to field those types of balls. And since we are dealing only with relatively small sample sizes for 2007, I am not yet convinced that Freel is necessarily that much better out of the zone.

Also, you can't forget that Hamilton is .894 in the zone compared to .824 for Freel. That translated to about ten less hits allowed to date 'in zone' by Hamilton than Freel. That makes up over half of the extra out of zone outs Ryan recorded.

That's itfor me tonight. Thanks for the good discussion.

mth123
08-04-2007, 08:27 AM
My 2 cents is that I personally would take the CF who can take away the dinks and dunks that fall in for hits, extend innings and make the pitcher work longer over the guy who can make the miracle catch in the gap once in a while. My biggest complaint with Griffey was always the bloops that fell for hits (it seemed like 2 or 3 every game while I was watching but I'm sure it wasn't that many) than it was the gappers that went for doubles. I think a defense should be designed based on solid coverage of the assigned area more than the occassional sensational play "outside of the zone."

Defense is also very much a result of how the players on the team fit together out there. Right now that in the gap stuff looks pretty important because there are statues in both LF and RF. My guess is that with either Hamilton or Bruce in RF, the other could cheat a little toward LC and both gaps would be covered adequately and a big power guy with no range could still pass in LF. Sometimes defensive stats show that guys like Dunn and Manny cost teams more runs than they really do because many of those plays that they don't make that the stats hold against them are made anyway by other players. These stats are a decent reference and can be used to tell you which players can complement each other and which probably would create a hole if on the field together (something like an OF with Dunn in LF and Griffey in RF is probably going to be below average defensively), but just calculating a runs allowed or runs prevented number based on these stats in isolation could be misleading IMO.

I don't know much about Bruce's arm, but from what I've seen of Hamilton, Bruce in CF and Hamilton in RF seems pretty good. My concern is that Bruce is still growing and as he fills out may not have the range long term for CF. I think Hamilton will be adequate out there into his 30's even though his arm is ideal for RF.

FIRELEFT
08-04-2007, 11:33 AM
I started paying attention to the red's organization in 2005.
Honestly at that time I thought Jay was over rated.
That year I saw him play in Billings and he had one of the prettiest swings i've ever seen, still not sold on him at the time.
However, the last 2 years I have seen a man that is (IMHO)
going to be very special.
I think If it is between him setting at home or getting a little look at MLB. Call him up in Sept.
I know there might be business reasons that they will not do that but take that out of the equation and he should go up.
Really, if you think this young man is the future and a red you want for his career, then business, who cares call him up in Sept.
Know with all that being said I am a novice at this.
My sister is the pro on the scouting this is just some thoughts for a new fan.
:cool:

indy_dave00
08-04-2007, 11:50 AM
To me Jay Bruce has earned a September call up ( he's earned one even sooner but no reason to rush him ) let him get his 200 at bats at Louisville. Then recall him after their season ends , get him 50 ab's or so in September with the Reds , let him soak in big league life.

Next spring let him compete for a spot on the 25 man roster , if Griffey or Dunn is moved and he shows in Spring Training he is ready , he makes the team and plays every day. At 21 , he'll struggle but he's shown this season at AA and AAA that he can adjust. If Dunn and Griffey are both still Reds and Hamilton is healthy , you have to start Jay at Louisville .

Jay Bruce , is good enough he will force the Reds to find a spot for him . But at 20 now and 21 next season there is no need to rush him. He'll show the Reds its time . I watched Adam Dunn in the minors and was excited at the prospect of him being a Red. But Jay Bruce's total game is so far beyond Adam's at the same age I'd love to have the kids future as a big leaguer. The Reds have a player and from all accounts an outstanding young man that they can build their team around . The Chattanooga and Louisville announcers talk about Jay as not only a potentially great player but as a grounded very impressive young man thats a great combination to picture as a Red for years to come.

dougdirt
08-04-2007, 12:16 PM
Comparing Bruce to Dunn in the minors at this point is just not a close comparison. Jay is absolutely destroying the highest level of the minor leagues at an age where Adam Dunn was still toiling around in Dayton OPSing right under .900.

Jay Bruce is a very, very special talent and I can't wait to see him in a Reds uniform.

Eric_Davis
08-04-2007, 01:37 PM
To me Jay Bruce has earned a September call up ( he's earned one even sooner but no reason to rush him ) let him get his 200 at bats at Louisville. Then recall him after their season ends , get him 50 ab's or so in September with the Reds , let him soak in big league life.

.

He started the season in High-A ball. There's absolutley no reason to bring him up here in September. There's a million things for Bruce to work on. Votto looked really good offensively his first 3 months, but looks awful his last month. Votto needs to stay down, too, and his .650 OPS since the All-Star break. Cantu needs to stay down and work on everything.

dougdirt
08-04-2007, 01:43 PM
He started the season in High-A ball. There's absolutley no reason to bring him up here in September. There's a million things for Bruce to work on. Votto looked really good offensively his first 3 months, but looks awful his last month. Votto needs to stay down, too, and his .650 OPS since the All-Star break. Cantu needs to stay down and work on everything.

Ah, yes, place his entire season worth of good into his last 80 at bats...

As for not bringing Jay up in September.... sure there are reasons. Get him some MLB experience. He is going to be in a Reds uniform next year at some point. Its going to happen. Why not use it when its going to do nothing but help him?

As for having things to work on still.... So does Adam Dunn. So does Edwin. So do a ton of major leaguers.

Eric_Davis
08-04-2007, 01:54 PM
Accept Edwin's last trip to the minors, he hit at about a 1.300 OPS clip, as did Hamilton at about 1.200. That's a far cry from a month at about half of that, especially when it's the last month. This is the reason Votto needed to stay in AAA. He obviously needed things to work on. Give Bruce half a season in AAA, not just a month or so, and hel'll begin to struggle as other teams adjust to him.

All said, I see Votto earning the starting 1st Base job in Spring Training, not necessarily getting it, though as so many Managers like to go with veterans for whatever reason. Bruce may or may not be on the Opening Day roster next year. It's still a toss-up at this point.

They aren't going to sit Dunn, Junior, Hamilton, Freel, and Hopper so that Bruce can get at-bats in September. It's just not going to happen.

Eric_Davis
08-04-2007, 01:58 PM
If management wanted to have some fun, bring up Votto in September and Bruce right now, release Conine, one of the relievers, and start Votto and Bruce and watch what happens.

REDblooded
08-04-2007, 02:18 PM
I can guarantee you this.......an outfield of both Hamilton and Bruce, with Votto at first base, would put a few butts in the seats this year.

indy_dave00
08-04-2007, 03:25 PM
We know Jay Bruce and Joey Votto will struggle in the majors . Very few players don't in the beginning . As far as taking ab's away from Freel a utility man playing the outfield , and Norris Hopper a 28 year old journeyman outfielder - why not???

In the long run unless Jay Bruce is a flop he'll have more impact on the Reds than either Freel or Hopper.

mth123
08-04-2007, 04:00 PM
Here is a consideration. Jay Bruce does not yet need to be added to the 40 Man roster and is still protected as Reds property. After the season there will be other players who have run out of their beginning of career exemptions. If Bruce is called up, it means he will be taking up a spot on the 40 man. That would leave some other player exposed to the rule 5 draft (or at least fill a spot that could be left open for the Reds to pick some one). I haven't looked to see who would have to be added or if anyone of any concern would be at risk, but unless Bruce is here to stay, I wouldn't add him to the 40 man at this point. He can still attend major league Spring Training and be added to the 40 man next spring if the team decides he goes north. With Dunn, Griffey and Hamilton in fold he'll probably be better off dominating AAA and if he's added to the 40 man now, the team would need to burn an option to send him back down next year. (Probably not a big deal, I doubt he'll use all of his options.)

Chi-Town Red
08-04-2007, 04:16 PM
As far as Bruce having to work on things at the MLB level, it doesnt get any better
than doing it on a team that is going nowhere. I would much rather see him getting AB'S
than Hopper or Freel. It will only help his development.

remdog
08-04-2007, 06:02 PM
First of all, if L'ville gets lucky and makes the playoffs, it would be great for Bruce (as well as Homer and Votto) to get some experience in post-season play, even if it is AAA.

Once the L'ville season is over I'd consider calling him up to see how things are done and get 10-25 AB's. However, IIRC, Adam Dunn had a clause in his contract that guaranteed him a Sept. call-up and he declined so that he would get a little rest and work on some things in the AFL. (I'm a little fuzzy on that but I remember being impressed with Dunn's attitude about foregoing the 'life in the bigs' so that he could improve his game.) I would certainly make Jay Bruce one of my picks for the Arizona Fall League.

mth's point about roster usage and rule five picks is a good point and, IMO, one worth considering.

Rem

Caveat Emperor
08-04-2007, 06:15 PM
Hamilton's woes are from being out of baseball for so many years. He has the talent to blow past Freel as a defensive Center Fielder. As he gets more experience, he'll get better and by the end of next year everyone will be satisfied that Hamilton is much, much better defensively than he was the first half of this year.

I think counting on Josh Hamilton to man CF is beyond foolhardy. Its the most physically taxing of the defensive outfield positions and you'd be asking a man who spent the better part of 3 years abusing his body in any way he could to man it.

I know its completely contrary to conventional wisdom, but if I'm running the Reds and Adam Dunn is out of the picture, I'm penciling Hamilton in as the new LF. At that position, he'd be a plus-defender and it would reduce the amount of wear he'd accumulate.

I fear Hamilton will spend more time on the DL if you leave him in CF.

mth123
08-04-2007, 06:42 PM
I think counting on Josh Hamilton to man CF is beyond foolhardy. Its the most physically taxing of the defensive outfield positions and you'd be asking a man who spent the better part of 3 years abusing his body in any way he could to man it.

I know its completely contrary to conventional wisdom, but if I'm running the Reds and Adam Dunn is out of the picture, I'm penciling Hamilton in as the new LF. At that position, he'd be a plus-defender and it would reduce the amount of wear he'd accumulate.

I fear Hamilton will spend more time on the DL if you leave him in CF.

I think this is a very valid point that I had never considered. Rep.

REDblooded
08-04-2007, 07:56 PM
You'd waste Hamilton's arm in LF.

camisadelgolf
08-04-2007, 08:09 PM
I like the idea of keeping Hamilton out of center in an effort to prevent injury. If people are think Drew Stubbs is so useless, then let him through his body all over the outfield and take all the beatings to keep Hamilton and Bruce healthy.

REDblooded
08-04-2007, 08:23 PM
I wish the reds would throw the farm at Philly to get Victorino......prob solved.

Eric_Davis
08-05-2007, 12:44 AM
I think counting on Josh Hamilton to man CF is beyond foolhardy. Its the most physically taxing of the defensive outfield positions and you'd be asking a man who spent the better part of 3 years abusing his body in any way he could to man it.

I know its completely contrary to conventional wisdom, but if I'm running the Reds and Adam Dunn is out of the picture, I'm penciling Hamilton in as the new LF. At that position, he'd be a plus-defender and it would reduce the amount of wear he'd accumulate.

I fear Hamilton will spend more time on the DL if you leave him in CF.

I agree. I don't see Hamilton or Freel as the starting CF next year, and that means Hamilton has another position to learn.

reds44
08-05-2007, 12:59 AM
People seem to misunderstand the September call-up thing. September callups are meant for guys on the 40 man roster, and it doesn't cost them an option year.

Jay Bruce isn't on the 40 man roster. If the Reds want to call him up (which I don't think they do), might as well do it now.

September callups are meant more for Dickerson, Votto, Salmon, McBeth, etc.

The_jbh
08-05-2007, 11:19 AM
I say Let Bruce play in the AA or AAA playoffs, and then bring him up for the last 2 weeks of the season for exposure, a few starts, and pitch hitting. Just give him a taste of what he can earn if he continues to work hard. Hopefully him and Dunn will be working out together a lot like they did last offseason.