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Matt700wlw
08-03-2007, 05:48 PM
Rocky Mountain News

CINCINNATI apparently decided to give up on 3B Edwin Encarnacion, which led to acquiring malcontent Jorge Cantu from Tampa Bay. The Reds will work in August to find someone to take OF Adam Dunn.

pedro
08-03-2007, 05:53 PM
I think if that was true Cantu would be playing 3B in Louisville, not 2B.

I wouldn't doubt that the Reds have soured some on EE and I wouldn't be surprised to see him traded in the off season.

MartyFan
08-03-2007, 05:54 PM
I think if that was true Cantu would be playing 3B in Louisville, not 2B.

I wouldn't doubt that the Reds have soured some on EE and I wouldn't be surprised to see him traded in the off season.

I agree.

joshnky
08-03-2007, 06:05 PM
Rocky Mountain News

CINCINNATI apparently decided to give up on 3B Edwin Encarnacion, which led to acquiring malcontent Jorge Cantu from Tampa Bay. The Reds will work in August to find someone to take OF Adam Dunn.

Was there any more to the article to establish some semblance of credibility?

westofyou
08-03-2007, 06:08 PM
Looks like Tracy had to struggle to find any copy on the Reds.

http://www.rockymountainnews.com/drmn/mlb/article/0,2777,DRMN_23924_5656521,00.html

Matt700wlw
08-03-2007, 06:18 PM
Was there any more to the article to establish some semblance of credibility?

The article covered blurbs about every team.

That was the extent of it...

KronoRed
08-03-2007, 06:55 PM
Cantu would be Bench like at 3rd, he's a 1B/OF type.

REDREAD
08-03-2007, 07:10 PM
Well, it's no secret that Edwin has been in the Reds doghouse this year.

Let's hope Wayne gets canned before he has a chance to give Edwin away as well.

Maybe there's something wrong with the GM when he decides so many players are "problems".. Kearns, Lopez, Edwin, Dunn, Hancock, etc.

pedro
08-03-2007, 07:27 PM
My opinion is that Edwin has played himself into the dog house this year. The problem really hasn't been playing time. The encouraging signs are that it's been his slugging that has faltered more than his OBP (and that's usually a more likely skill to recover for a player of his talents) and that his defense seems to have improved. I hope he plays himself out of the doghouse over the rest of the season as I suspect he'll get the opportunity.

Always Red
08-03-2007, 07:51 PM
My opinion is that Edwin has played himself into the dog house this year. The problem really hasn't been playing time. The encouraging signs are that it's been his slugging that has faltered more than his OBP (and that's usually a more likely skill to recover for a player of his talents) and that his defense seems to have improved. I hope he plays himself out of the doghouse over the rest of the season as I suspect he'll get the opportunity.

I am in complete agreement, Pedro.

My suspicion is that the Reds would like nothing better than for Edwin to step up and solve 3B for them for the next 10 years.

His defense has improved somewhat (his range is excellent; he still struggles with the routine throw from time to time), but his bat has been a mystery this year.

Here's to hoping he bounces back with the bat :beerme:

NC Reds
08-03-2007, 08:06 PM
Ridiculous blurb. :rolleyes:

For once I wish this organization would get it right. Keep Dunn. Jettison the old guys and low OBP guys.

Krivsky needs to go if he if thinks shipping off Dunn and EdE makes this team a contender for anything. I saw all I needed from Krivsky with the Kearns-Lopez trade.

RedsManRick
08-03-2007, 08:08 PM
Let's take defense out of the equation for a minute. While he's still inconsistent, I think he's improved dramatically and would hypothesize that they are more frustrated with his bat at this point. So what happened?



Year BA/OBP/SLG K% BB% 2B% HR% HR/FB IFFB% LD%/GB%/FB% BABIP eBABIP
2006 .276/.359/.473 19.2% 9.2% 7.1% 3.2% 12.1% 13.7 21.1%/41.4%/37.5% .310 .331
2007 .259/.338/.366 19.6% 8.4% 3.1% 1.9% 6.4% 19.3 18.4%/38.8%/42.7% .302 .304


%: #/PA
BABIP: Batting Average on Balls in Play
eBABIP; Expected Batting Average on Balls in Play (based on hit types)
IFFB%: Infield Fly Ball %

So, it seems like a pretty obvious story to me. His K rate is about the same. His BB is about the same. It's not likely a discipline or pitch selection issue. However, instead of driving the ball and hitting it squarely, he's hitting more fly balls, specifically more weak fly balls (aka pop ups). We can see that in his spike IFFB% and his significantly decreased HR/FB. This definitely matches a trend I've seen watching him. Seems like he pops out at least once a game, especially with RISP.

I'm absolutely no scout, but from my very amateur eyes, I posit that his timing is way off, he's pulling off the ball, and his horrible balance is leading to weak swings, or swings that are too powerful and have uppercut. I saw Andruw Jones last night, who I know has had big issues pulling off the ball and he reminded me a lot of EE this year. He just can't seem to keep back and he's then forced to slow his hands down in order to make contact after he's also started his swing.

And now I cross the line in to pure conjecture... Perhaps the pressure on him to keep his job, as shown by both Narron and Mac sitting him regularly and pulling him during games is making him more anxious. He just can't be relaxed enough and he's jumping out of his shoes to get that hit which will get him a little job security. When he came back from AAA, he had found that groove because the pressure was off. Dial it up a little thanks to a cold streak and a benching and BAM, back off kilter.

Caveat Emperor
08-03-2007, 09:13 PM
I'm absolutely no scout, but from my very amateur eyes, I posit that his timing is way off, he's pulling off the ball, and his horrible balance is leading to weak swings, or swings that are too powerful and have uppercut.

I'm no scout either, but my take is that Edwin is brutal at pitch recognition.

He seems to pick up the ball late in the delivery and has to count on good bat speed to make up for the delay -- his late swings lead to an alarming amount of "bad contact" as any attempt to center the ball is sacraficed to ensure that he gets the bathead around to the hitting zone at all. This poor recognition also causes him to cheat a ton; making him a complete guess-hitter in a lot of fastball situations. If you look at his hitting charts, virtually all his hits go to left field. At home, he doesn't have a single extra base hit right of center field. Again, his lack of pitch recognition destroys any ability to go the other way with the baseball -- he's either pulling it with a blind swing, or he isn't hitting it at all.

His late swings also manfiest themselves as a lot of free passes due to catchers interference. I think he's reached base at least 2 or 3 times this year due to swinging so late in the pitch that the makes contact with the catcher's glove as the catcher reaches forward to receive the baseball.

I've been beyond disappointed with EE this year. They need to work him hard at picking the ball up earlier and recognizing spin/location, otherwise he's going to be a maddeningly inconsistent hitter (IMO) and face a substantial drop off as his bat speed diminishes.

Again, though, I'm no scout.

RedsManRick
08-03-2007, 09:15 PM
If he's consistently late, wouldn't we see him hitting more to RF?

Caveat Emperor
08-03-2007, 09:16 PM
If he's consistently late, wouldn't we see him hitting more to RF?

Not necessarily -- he seems to be guessing a ton during fastball counts, which is why you see all his hits as pulls.

Mario-Rijo
08-03-2007, 09:43 PM
I do know he has a tendency to drop his back elbow and he's getting under the ball alot more which would coincide with why his LD% is down and FB% is up this year. That's a definite issue he needs to be more aware of. Or perhaps he is which is why it comes and go's to some extent.

BuckeyeRedleg
08-03-2007, 11:16 PM
I'm absolutely no scout, but from my very amateur eyes, I posit that his timing is way off, he's pulling off the ball, and his horrible balance is leading to weak swings, or swings that are too powerful and have uppercut. I saw Andruw Jones last night, who I know has had big issues pulling off the ball and he reminded me a lot of EE this year. He just can't seem to keep back and he's then forced to slow his hands down in order to make contact after he's also started his swing.

Wow. I am no scout either, but I see the same thing. He seems to open up way to early and the balls he really drives he yanks down the line or way foul. His monster HR was one that he seemed to finally get, but even that one was yanked and appeared like it was foul. He either needs A. a new hitting coah or B. someone that leaves him alone and let's the young man do what he did to get himself here.

Maybe it's too much thinking and he's cheating trying to stay ahead. I think he could be a dominant hitter if he would just stay back and hit the ball where it's pitched.

The power he displayed on that HR last week really gave me hope. I was starting to question his power. I think he definitely has the power to stay back and jack it way out to right.

He's only 24. If they keep their patience I guarantee he goes off in 2008.

StillFunkyB
08-04-2007, 01:28 AM
You know, I also think that hitting in a better spot in the order might help. Having Gonzo or Ross hitting behind you isn't going to help you see better pitches.

Eric_Davis
08-04-2007, 01:34 AM
The Rocky Mountain News looks like they're Rocky Mountain High.

RedLegSuperStar
08-04-2007, 04:37 AM
Think their might be a chance they try Gonzalez at 3B, Phillips at SS, and put Cantu at 2B?

puca
08-04-2007, 06:54 AM
Think their might be a chance they try Gonzalez at 3B, Phillips at SS, and put Cantu at 2B?

I hope not. That would weaken the team both offensively and defensively at the same time.

puca
08-04-2007, 07:01 AM
Cantu doesn't change the fact that EE is the best 3b the Reds have. I can't imagine the horrors of replacing EE with Cantu. As bad as EE has been, he still can get on base. That is something that Cantu Cantdo.

Add better hitters at the bottom of the order, or move they guys that get on base higher up in the order and that OBP might make a difference.

RedsBaron
08-04-2007, 07:26 AM
For once I wish this organization would get it right. Keep Dunn. Jettison the old guys and low OBP guys.



Amen. Building an offense around guys who can't get on base is crazy.

Tony Cloninger
08-04-2007, 11:21 AM
The excuse of who is batting behind EE has nothing to do with his bad plate discipline. The guy looks like Vlad up there.....swinging at eveything but not getting the same results.

He was more selective last year.......and i just think he put pressure on himself this year and has not recovered.

Remember when Sabo would struggle during 1988 and 1990 seasons ..... he would always become so pull conscious.... and go from .300 to .270. In 1991 he stayed going to all fields and his power and BA was at it's best in his whole career.
EE needs to just do that and quit trying to pull everything.

His defense is great right now......Maybe he has concentrated so much on his defense that he has forgotten his offense.

KronoRed
08-04-2007, 12:23 PM
Think their might be a chance they try Gonzalez at 3B, Phillips at SS, and put Cantu at 2B?

My Lord that would be awful :eek:

Eric_Davis
08-04-2007, 01:29 PM
I hope not. That would weaken the team both offensively and defensively at the same time.

No kidding. They could put Dunn at 1st while they're at it and resign him for 5 years at $15M per year.

Spitball
08-04-2007, 02:27 PM
I found this interesting. It is from a Baseball America chat with Josh Boyd a couple of years ago. Apparently some of the issues that have plagued EE are not new.


Q: Tommy from New York asks:
What do you believe the ceiling is on a player like Edwin Encarnacion? Is he a Juan Encarnacion-type player in the majors (20-20 type with no plate discipline) or could he be a superstar?

A: Josh Boyd: He projects as a slightly above-average major leaguer with occasional all-star potential. My biggest concern with Edwin is his lack of hustle at times. He needs to remain focused at all times to avoid a slump like he fell into early last season. His bat can produce above-average pop and he should be a very good defensive third baseman. He's similar to Juan Encarnacion with his approach, though Edwin probably has is grade better with his pitch recognition, where Juan just doesn't seem to make that adjustment.

osuceltic
08-04-2007, 02:57 PM
Cantu doesn't change the fact that EE is the best 3b the Reds have.
That's not the question. The question is: Is Cantu + (whatever they get for Encarnacion in trade) better than just EE.

It's the same as: Is (Dunn replacement + whatever they get for Dunn) better than just Dunn.

I'm amazed by how many people don't consider this when arguing "we can't trade" this player or that player.

flyer85
08-04-2007, 03:18 PM
On Cantu ... if the D-Rays felt that his defense wasn't good enough to be an everyday 2b or 3b I find it hard to believe the conclusion will be any different in Cincinnati

puca
08-04-2007, 03:51 PM
That's not the question. The question is: Is Cantu + (whatever they get for Encarnacion in trade) better than just EE.

It's the same as: Is (Dunn replacement + whatever they get for Dunn) better than just Dunn.

I'm amazed by how many people don't consider this when arguing "we can't trade" this player or that player.

The original question that I responded to didn't mention trading EE. But even if it did include that hypothetical.

I'm amazed that people still think EE has enough trade value to even consider the return. At this point he is a roll of the dice, a lottery ticket. Teams don't pay premium prices for players like that.

I'm also amazed that people don't understand the importance of OBP. If EE was dealt, Cantu would be about the last guy (well after Castro) that I would want sucking up regular ABs.

Chip R
08-04-2007, 05:04 PM
On Cantu ... if the D-Rays felt that his defense wasn't good enough to be an everyday 2b or 3b I find it hard to believe the conclusion will be any different in Cincinnati


Perhaps the standards are lower here. ;)

Reds1
08-04-2007, 07:18 PM
I never quite figured out why EE was so loved. Too me he can't field and make basic throws and gets lazy from time to time and I guess he has a little attitude, but his bat I know was exciting. Kipplinger may be the next 3B of this team. He is better defensively and he won't have the power, but so far cluch hitting and ability to hit and not have the long dry spells is apealing. We'll see, but EE might be some trade bait and could have some worth.

fearofpopvol1
08-04-2007, 09:39 PM
I never quite figured out why EE was so loved. Too me he can't field and make basic throws and gets lazy from time to time and I guess he has a little attitude, but his bat I know was exciting. Kipplinger may be the next 3B of this team. He is better defensively and he won't have the power, but so far cluch hitting and ability to hit and not have the long dry spells is apealing. We'll see, but EE might be some trade bait and could have some worth.

I very much disagree. I think Edwin has made enormous strides this season (after being sent to AAA) defensively. If anything has been lacking with him, it's been his offense and his drop in power. I would say Keppinger has had an edge offensively since coming up, but the last few games Edwin has had some good nights. It's hard to say if he's the long term answer or not, but I think you've gotta give him a little more time before deciding.

Always Red
08-04-2007, 10:22 PM
While it is true that Edwin has been a relative disappointment this year, it is way too early to give up on this guy. He could solve 3B for the next 7-8 years for the Reds, but only if he resolves in his mind to make the effort to become a great player. He has a very high ceiling, as compared to a guy like Kepp, who I don't think has as much talent, but is certainly making the most of it right now. If it's my team, I start next year with both of them on the roster, Eddie at 3B, and Kepp as the primary utility IF/right handed PH.

I've been tough on EE this year; but it is also clear that he has the talent to become a perennial All-Star type player. I do think he has a tendency to be lackadaisical, which shows in his plate discipline (often) as well as his throwing (sometimes).

WHEN (not if) this guy makes the decision to get mentally tougher, he's a keeper. Which makes him a keeper right now. I look at it this way- this is the kind of guy that Kriv is scouring the garbage dumps looking for. If the Reds cut him loose, there will be plenty of teams looking to pick him up.

I also agree that the time he spent in demotion this year has helped him rather than hindered his development.

RFS62
08-04-2007, 10:36 PM
I do think he has a tendency to be lackadaisical, which shows in his plate discipline (often) as well as his throwing (sometimes).

WHEN (not if) this guy makes the decision to get mentally tougher, he's a keeper. Which makes him a keeper right now. I look at it this way- this is the kind of guy that Kriv is scouring the garbage dumps looking for. If the Reds cut him loose, there will be plenty of teams looking to pick him up.

I also agree that the time he spent in demotion this year has helped him rather than hindered his development.



I too think his problems have been mental. It's a tough grind playing all year, and some players are better than others at maintaining their focus.

I'm not sure he can decide to get mentally tougher. It's a talent, and to a degree a skill you can develop. But all players aren't created equal in that regard. He's still young, so it's not too late to improve his mental game. But from what I've seen, I'm not convinced that he can maintain his focus for an entire season.

RANDY IN INDY
08-05-2007, 08:39 AM
Nice insight, RFS62. I am not sure he has what it takes to stay focused for a full season, either. He doesn't seem to be able to fight through "the lows" very well, and the "bad throws" creep up at the worst times. He seems to have that "deer in the headlights look," from time to time.

GAC
08-05-2007, 08:56 AM
While it is true that Edwin has been a relative disappointment this year, it is way too early to give up on this guy. He could solve 3B for the next 7-8 years for the Reds, but only if he resolves in his mind to make the effort to become a great player. He has a very high ceiling, as compared to a guy like Kepp, who I don't think has as much talent, but is certainly making the most of it right now. If it's my team, I start next year with both of them on the roster, Eddie at 3B, and Kepp as the primary utility IF/right handed PH.

I've been tough on EE this year; but it is also clear that he has the talent to become a perennial All-Star type player. I do think he has a tendency to be lackadaisical, which shows in his plate discipline (often) as well as his throwing (sometimes).

WHEN (not if) this guy makes the decision to get mentally tougher, he's a keeper. Which makes him a keeper right now. I look at it this way- this is the kind of guy that Kriv is scouring the garbage dumps looking for. If the Reds cut him loose, there will be plenty of teams looking to pick him up.

I also agree that the time he spent in demotion this year has helped him rather than hindered his development.


I too think his problems have been mental. It's a tough grind playing all year, and some players are better than others at maintaining their focus.

I'm not sure he can decide to get mentally tougher. It's a talent, and to a degree a skill you can develop. But all players aren't created equal in that regard. He's still young, so it's not too late to improve his mental game. But from what I've seen, I'm not convinced that he can maintain his focus for an entire season.

Great insights by both of you gentlemen on EE. Until I read more, I thought you guys were talking abut Dunn. :lol:

EE is still a young ballplayer. So I still believe that immaturity is a factor. You have to show patience first and foremost above everything, and allow young players to grow/develop.

His defense has definitely improved. I'm somewhat disappointed with his lack of power (.376 SLG%). And a .716 OPS is terrible. I was hoping that he would be that RH'd power we needed to replace Aurilia (and why we got Conine), while also hitting with a better average. And there is still time for him in that department.

But this is a young and cheap talent ($400,000) who is locked up for the next few years. I hope they show some patience. If not, then that tells me they aren't sincere in the direction of developing young players and allowing for "growing pains".

Further more....

I'd rather see him in that #2 spot, due to his OB% (.340) then a Hopper.

Kc61
08-05-2007, 09:44 AM
I don't think acquiring Cantu has much to do with EE, or with any other Red in particular. I think that Krivsky has come to recognize, in general, that the team is weak from the right side offensively and has lots of trouble hitting lefties.

That's why they drafted Todd Frazier with the supplemental first round pick, and why they acquired Cantu. For those around here who think it is fine for the Reds to have left handed hitters at every position, well, many in baseball would disagree. You need a balance.

At minimum, Cantu can be the right handed platoon first baseman. Again, folks want Votto to play every day, it's good for his development, etc., but he is only 23, is still working on his game, and may not be ready to have 550 at bats in the major leagues. When he comes up, the Reds may decide he gets up to 350 at bats his first year, let someone else get the other 200. That's not the doghouse, it is one way of helping a rookie learn how to play major league ball.

Cantu also could wind up in left field, if Dunn is traded, probably as a platoon guy. Or he could wind up at second or third, if there is a move for Phillips or EE. As for EE, I'd say he is a question mark at this point. He's had a down year offensively. But Krivsky didn't trade him at the deadline, so it looks like EE will get more time to round out his game. Or maybe he will be on the market, but only for high value.

(Again EE has not been "mistreated"; he is 24, and some GMs and managers don't bring along such a player by throwing him out there for 550 at bats. He is still developing, he needed to work on defense, he obviously needs adjustments on offense. So sometimes he sits, he spent two weeks at AAA. Not a crime.)

Or, maybe Cantu is just around to give some right handed pop off the bench. Couldn't hurt.