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View Full Version : Coffey gets a "Hold"?



RedsBaron
08-05-2007, 09:05 AM
I was reviewing the box score of last night's Reds game (Adam Dunn is such a slacker-why did he wait until the tenth inning to hit his home run, and why didn't he make sure that more that one guy was on when he hit it?).
Anyway, the box score on SI's web site had a pitching line for Todd Coffey of .1 innings pitched, 1 hit allowed, 1 base on balls, 1 strikeout, 1 home run allowed, three earned runs, a season ERA of 6.04---no surprises in any of that, as I had watched the game---but then I noticed this entry: "H, 6."
Was Todd Coffey credited with his sixth "hold" last night?
How in the world should Coffey get credit for a "hold" for his pitching performance last night?
If the box score was accurate, the requirements for being credited with a hold should be radically revised, or the whole idea of a "hold" abandoned.

919191
08-05-2007, 09:23 AM
I think the definition of a hold could be "an appearance made by the pitcher before the pitcher credited with a save where the pitcher before the pitcher credited with the save didn't blow the lead, despite how bad the pitcher before the pitcher credited with the save pitched".


Rolls right of the tongue.

GAC
08-05-2007, 10:03 AM
I'd like to A HOLD of Coffey. ;)

http://www.comic-mint.com/media/client/homer-strangling-bart-c7833_sml.JPG

VR
08-05-2007, 11:54 AM
Hold.

Horrific
Outing,
Literally
Devastating

Hold.

Get with it RedsBaron.

Hap
08-05-2007, 12:04 PM
They should put in an "ineffective clause" that states that the official scorer(s) have the discretion to remove the hold if the pitcher allows two or more earned runs and is determined to have been ineffective.

UKFlounder
08-05-2007, 12:26 PM
Isn't a "hold" where a pitcher comes in with his team in the lead, and leaves with his team still winning? I think that's how he gets credit for it, but much like with Weathers' save, I don't know how serious you can take it, as it certainly was not effective.

Matt700wlw
08-05-2007, 12:33 PM
Lucky for us, he got a contract extension last season and we will be graced with his presence next season.


Hey Wayne, quit giving everybody who shows a flash of something a contract extension!!!

Patrick Bateman
08-05-2007, 12:46 PM
Lucky for us, he got a contract extension last season and we will be graced with his presence next season.


Hey Wayne, quit giving everybody who shows a flash of something a contract extension!!!

He was arbitration eligible anyways. He was here regardless of the contract extension. The only thing accomplished with the guaranteed contract is that the Reds probably wasted 200K or so by doing it when they did. They were banking on Coffey being useful this season to get a discount(which IMO was not that far of a stretch).

Chip R
08-05-2007, 01:36 PM
He was arbitration eligible anyways. He was here regardless of the contract extension. The only thing accomplished with the guaranteed contract is that the Reds probably wasted 200K or so by doing it when they did. They were banking on Coffey being useful this season to get a discount(which IMO was not that far of a stretch).


While it's true he was arbitration eligible, there's no law that states the Reds would have to offer him arbitation. Now, they are stuck paying him whether he's on the club or not.

RedsBaron
08-05-2007, 01:48 PM
Hold.

Horrific
Outing,
Literally
Devastating

Hold.

Get with it RedsBaron.

Thanks. I guess that means that the Reds bullpen leads the league in Holds.

KronoRed
08-05-2007, 02:25 PM
While it's true he was arbitration eligible, there's no law that states the Reds would have to offer him arbitation. Now, they are stuck paying him whether he's on the club or not.

That is rapidly becoming a Reds tradition :clap:

Eric_Davis
08-05-2007, 02:30 PM
I was reviewing the box score of last night's Reds game (Adam Dunn is such a slacker-why did he wait until the tenth inning to hit his home run, and why didn't he make sure that more that one guy was on when he hit it?).
Anyway, the box score on SI's web site had a pitching line for Todd Coffey of .1 innings pitched, 1 hit allowed, 1 base on balls, 1 strikeout, 1 home run allowed, three earned runs, a season ERA of 6.04---no surprises in any of that, as I had watched the game---but then I noticed this entry: "H, 6."
Was Todd Coffey credited with his sixth "hold" last night?
How in the world should Coffey get credit for a "hold" for his pitching performance last night?
If the box score was accurate, the requirements for being credited with a hold should be radically revised, or the whole idea of a "hold" abandoned.

He was holding his neck.

mth123
08-05-2007, 04:45 PM
He was arbitration eligible anyways. He was here regardless of the contract extension. The only thing accomplished with the guaranteed contract is that the Reds probably wasted 200K or so by doing it when they did. They were banking on Coffey being useful this season to get a discount(which IMO was not that far of a stretch).

I agree. As much as I love to criticize WK, his logic was correct in this case. As far as Coffey goes, I think he's become Gary Majewski. He may get back to being a decent major league reliever, but I really doubt he'll do it here. It seems to be in his head now. He doesn't have the deer in the headlights look that Maj had last year, but these seem to be 2 guys who need a change of scenery very badly.

I think Coffey will turn it around after he's moved on. Its a shame. He's one of my favorites and I had high hopes that he might help hold a bullpen together that looked pretty bad from the outset. I hope he has a good career wherever he winds up. I also hope I'm wrong and he turns it around in Cincy.

VR
08-05-2007, 04:48 PM
Thanks. I guess that means that the Reds bullpen leads the league in Holds.

Yes. And saves too.

Sorry
As#
Virtually
Effectiveless

fearofpopvol1
08-05-2007, 04:54 PM
In all fairness, Coffey was pretty great last year. His 2nd half was certainly not that of his 1st, but he looked like an all star the 1st half as he was almost unhittable. Even at his worst last year, it was still better than his best this year. Something went drastically wrong somwhere along the way.

Hoosier Red
08-05-2007, 04:59 PM
Hold.

Horrific
Outing,
Literally
Devastating

Hold.

Get with it RedsBaron.

He's only had 6 of those? That can't be right.

WVRedsFan
08-05-2007, 06:45 PM
Speaking of Todd, does anyone but me think that maybe our coaching staff has a lot to do with his fall from grace? Most who know pitching can immediately tell what's wrong. No movement on his fastball. In my mind, the pitching coaches should be able to see what he's doing different and correct it.

Or is the pitching coach not able to do anything like this?

RedEye
08-05-2007, 06:55 PM
FWIW, here's the definition of a hold:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hold_%28baseball%29

Yes, at times it is a silly statistic given underwhelming performances like Coffey's. Then again, so are wins and saves... and I suppose middle relievers do deserve their own somewhat-arbitrary measure of performance come contract time.

Blitz Dorsey
08-05-2007, 10:24 PM
The hold: The worst stat kept in baseball.

But nothing is worse than when a closer blows a save (let's say he goes 1 IP, 2 ER). And then gets the "win" after his team scores a run in the 9th. I have long said there should be no "statistical" win when that happens. The team gets credit for the win obviously, but no pitcher on the team gets credited with the win.

bucksfan2
08-06-2007, 10:12 AM
Speaking of Todd, does anyone but me think that maybe our coaching staff has a lot to do with his fall from grace? Most who know pitching can immediately tell what's wrong. No movement on his fastball. In my mind, the pitching coaches should be able to see what he's doing different and correct it.

Or is the pitching coach not able to do anything like this?

I dont think its exactly no movement on his fastball. He can throw a pretty good fastball, keep it down and hit the corners when he is on. The problem is that his fastball sits at the same speed over and over again. Its either a 93 or 94 MPH fastball and most if not all players in the majors can adapt to a 93 MPH fastball. Coffey needs a secondary pitch that he can actually throw. Pumping the same fastball in there pitch after pitch is going to result in bad bad things.

WVRedsFan
08-06-2007, 12:05 PM
I dont think its exactly no movement on his fastball. He can throw a pretty good fastball, keep it down and hit the corners when he is on. The problem is that his fastball sits at the same speed over and over again. Its either a 93 or 94 MPH fastball and most if not all players in the majors can adapt to a 93 MPH fastball. Coffey needs a secondary pitch that he can actually throw. Pumping the same fastball in there pitch after pitch is going to result in bad bad things.

I agree, but the other night his fastball was straight as an arrow.

KronoRed
08-06-2007, 01:42 PM
The hold: The worst stat kept in baseball.

But nothing is worse than when a closer blows a save (let's say he goes 1 IP, 2 ER). And then gets the "win" after his team scores a run in the 9th. I have long said there should be no "statistical" win when that happens. The team gets credit for the win obviously, but no pitcher on the team gets credited with the win.

Agreed, I think the save is pretty bad as well, 3 outs with a 3 run lead gets you a save? big deal, now get those outs with the tying/winning run on base and I'll be on board.

BCubb2003
08-06-2007, 01:51 PM
There needs to be a true Fireman's stat for the guy who comes into the toughest situation and gets out of the inning without letting a run score.

Patrick Bateman
08-06-2007, 02:02 PM
While it's true he was arbitration eligible, there's no law that states the Reds would have to offer him arbitation. Now, they are stuck paying him whether he's on the club or not.

Except that non-tendering one of the few relievers on the team who has shown anything in the past to save 700-800K would have been a really silly move.

I'm not giving up on Coffey yet. I think a lot of his troubles have been due to plain bad luck. I believe that few pitchers have much control over their HR/FB rate. I'm not saying there is no control or anything, but Coffey has induced many grounballs this season, so I find it difficult to believe that a guy who gets so many groundballs could give up so many homeruns.

Anyways, his HR/FB rate is 27.4% this season, where the league average is right around 10%. I have never seen any pitcher over any kind of large sample size post such a high rate, especially when he can get groundballs.

Take Eric Milton for instance. In his 3 seasons with the Reds, he posted HR/FB rates of 13.1%, 11.2%, and 7.1%. My point is that I honestly don't see how Todd Coffey should be giving up more homeruns than Eric Milton. It just doesn't make sense to me.

The thing is, that this corresponds with my eyes pretty good. When Coffey pitches, I don't see that big of a change from last season. His location has never been fantastic, but he looks like the same pitcher (and his peripherals would agree here). The main difference has been that opposing hitters have simply been smashing homeruns at a ridiculous rate.

I know it seems odd that I'm suggesting that thois isn't really Coffey's fault to a degree. But no pitchers that I can think of at the moment have been able to give up this many homeruns while having a good groundball rate.

Knowing how volatile relievers can be due to how few innings they pitch, I'm more than prepared to stick it out with Coffey. He's pitched 44 innings, and it's easy to how how some unfortunate luck can skew things. I think given time Coffey can come back to being a reliabe 4.00 ERA reliever. Anyways, it's not like the Reds are stocked with so many options that they can't afford to stick it out with struggling young pitchers.

BCubb2003
08-06-2007, 02:08 PM
i wish Coffeybro were around to offer some insight. I can understand if he's wary of participating, but most of us have good feelings and are just puzzled and frustrated, too.

Chip R
08-06-2007, 02:49 PM
Except that non-tendering one of the few relievers on the team who has shown anything in the past to save 700-800K would have been a really silly move.


Perhaps, but if the man can't pitch at the major league level, why pay him a major league salary? The extention was probably not a bad idea but the timing was a little off. Why not do it at the end of the season? he probably wasn't going to cost you any more then then he did at the time of the extention. The team has all the power in the first 3 years of a player's career and a great deal of it through his arbitration years. It's not necessarily about Coffey. But he's shown that he's been ineffective over the past few months. Now that they signed him to a deal, he's either got to get his stuff together or the Reds are going to be paying him for roster filler. They could release him but then they have to eat the contract that they signed him to and he's being paid not to pitch and someone else is being paid to pitch in his place. Now, if they didn't sign him to that deal, they could sign him to another 1 year deal or they could just let him go. Given a choice of paying an ineffective pitcher or not paying him, I take the latter option every time. Maybe he gets straightened out elsewhere. That'd stink for the Reds but that's another issue.

I just wonder what goes through Wayne's mind when he gives out these extentions. Castro, Ross, Arroyo, Harang, Coffey Dunn, Freel and I think Valentin all got extentions from Wayne. Harang, Dunn, Arroyo I can understand. Even Freel to a certain degree. But why isn't a player like Brandon Phillips being offered an extention? He made some noises in ST when his contract was renewed at a bargain basement price that he would prefer a long term deal and he likes it here. He has his faults but he has been one of the best players on the Reds this year. He's been a good citizen, and that coupled with his performance would make him a likely candidate to buy out his arbitration years. So where's his deal? If they don't want to sign him to a long term deal because they think he's a flash in the pan, that's fine but why extend Ross? Why extend Coffey?

bucksfan2
08-06-2007, 03:48 PM
But why isn't a player like Brandon Phillips being offered an extention?

I believe that is because they still have another cheap year out of him plus 2 arb years. I may be wrong but you don't want to pay players big bucks until you have to.

flyer85
08-06-2007, 03:50 PM
I'd like to A HOLD of Coffey. ;)

http://www.comic-mint.com/media/client/homer-strangling-bart-c7833_sml.JPG

I guess that would be a "choke" hold.

Chip R
08-06-2007, 04:05 PM
I believe that is because they still have another cheap year out of him plus 2 arb years. I may be wrong but you don't want to pay players big bucks until you have to.


I believe he's going into his first arb year. He's not going to be real expensive next year but he has the most potential to be very expensive very soon. If that's the case, why not buy out those years at a discount?

But that's really not the point. My question is why Wayne gives out a multi-year deal to guys like Coffey and Ross - who were in similar situations to Phillips - but he doesn't give one to Phillips? :confused:

Ravenlord
08-06-2007, 04:54 PM
In all fairness, Coffey was pretty great last year. His 2nd half was certainly not that of his 1st, but he looked like an all star the 1st half as he was almost unhittable. Even at his worst last year, it was still better than his best this year.
i suppose it's how you define first half.



2006
Month ERA IP H HR BB K WHIP
April 0.60 15 14 0 5 11 1.27
May 1.80 15 12 1 4 14 1.07
June 5.84 12.1 13 2 6 3 1.54
July 5.59 9.2 18 2 2 9 2.07
Aug 5.79 14 16 1 8 12 1.71
Sep 2.45 11 8 1 2 9 0.91
Oct 9.00 1 4 0 0 2 4.00
Total 3.58 78 85 7 27 60 1.44
2007
Month ERA IP H HR BB K WHIP
April 6.57 12.1 17 2 3 14 1.62
May 3.18 11.1 12 4 6 7 1.59
June 3.12 8.2 11 1 2 7 1.50
July 8.74 11.1 19 3 5 6 2.12
Aug 27.00 1 2 1 1 2 3.00
Total 6.04 44.2 61 11 17 36 1.75
06+07
ERA IP K/BB BB/9 K/9 H/9 HR/9 WHIP
4.70 122.2 2.18 3.23 7.04 10.71 1.32 1.55
Coffey's two good ERA months this year are illusionary due to allowing a high amount of inherited runners to score.

Coffey's two year split reminds me very much of pre-knee replacement Eric Milton.


Something went drastically wrong somwhere along the way.
i suppose like most people, i think it's all in his head.

bucksfan2
08-06-2007, 05:36 PM
If you look at the month by month performance you also have to realize that his best months were April and May when the pitchers have a leg up on the batters. IMO that his problems are in his head. I think he came into camp out of shape and overweight and though the reds were going to just hand him the closers job. I dont know if it is laziness or it is just that he can't consistantly throw another pitch for a strike but he really needs to learn another pitch. I think the way the reds management has handled Coffey has been wrong. I think he should spend unlimited time in the minors until he comes up and proves that he has a second pitch that he can throw. Until he does that he is going to continue to be a bad reliever.

UKFlounder
08-06-2007, 07:24 PM
. I think he should spend unlimited time in the minors until he comes up and proves that he has a second pitch that he can throw. Until he does that he is going to continue to be a bad reliever.

So he should stay in the minors until he proves he can throw 2 pitches in the majors? :confused:

Actually, I think I know what you mean and I agree that giving him more time in the minors may have been a worthy idea, but, let's face it - it's not like he is keeping the Reds out of the playoffs, and, more importantly, do they have anyone better?

Maybe some minor league time would motivate him, I don't know, but it's just depressing to see him become worse than he was a couple years ago.