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View Full Version : Reds in "Win Now" mode...



Matt700wlw
08-05-2007, 12:28 PM
http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070805/COL09/708050421/1082/SPT


It's working well...

creek14
08-05-2007, 12:47 PM
That's a typo. It was supposed to read Win?? How?????

RedsManRick
08-05-2007, 12:56 PM
You have to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em...

edabbs44
08-05-2007, 12:59 PM
No commentary needed here.

redsfan4445
08-05-2007, 01:14 PM
well to WIN NOW?? you need a legit bullpen.. time to open the wallet if you want to fix it.. this current crop isnt going to win anything!! in the offseason.. this should be the motto
"FIX THE PEN, TOO WIN!

jojo
08-05-2007, 01:15 PM
I'm planning to drink alot today and pretend that it's game 7 of the WS.

redsfan4445
08-05-2007, 01:26 PM
the Reds need to target two pitchers in the offseason for the pen

Scott Linebrink (31) Setup guy and closer Francisco Cordero (33)
then if the Dodgers dont bring back Randy Wolf(31) he is another starter to sandwich in the rotation.
i woulld love to see the Reds do a 3 team trade to rid Dunn.. Washington and another team..Dunn would go to Washington, but we could get a 3rd team involved to get players from that team and not washington. unless Cordero or Rauch is coming back. (love to get Jason Bay somehow) would they take Edwin?

indy_dave00
08-05-2007, 01:29 PM
Okay Reds fans lets check mlb roster now for what 38+ year old-plays the right way , scrappy players the Reds will go after this off season.Krivsky needs to hurry and get those new 3-5 year contract extentions out for David Weathers and Jeff Conine.

If this is Castelini and Krivsky's idea of how to run a top flight major league baseball team a couple things need to be known and done. Are they both in agreement this is the plan??

If its Krivsky's alone idea - he needs to be canned immediately. If its both Catelini and Kravsky's joint belief then Bob Castelini needs to call a new conference now.

At the new conference Bob Castilini , owes it to Reds fans to state----- I lied when I said my goal was to bring Championship baseball back to Cincinnati and Reds fans. My goal is to hopefully make money with my toy and maybe beat my old partners in St.Louis a few times a year.

Reds fans can live with rebuilding and hopefully building a champion. But to know the entire plan is to tweak and play around .500 and if lucky catch lightning in a bottle one year and win- is a total kick the face to loyal Reds fans everywhere.

WVRedsFan
08-05-2007, 01:33 PM
If we can believe Fay, and that's a stretch, we now see the plan. GAC said a few days ago that the plan was to keep the big club stable and build the minors and he may be spot on. This would mean Conine and Phillips will be offered extentions, Castro will return, and Dunn will go for relief pitching.

Peachy, ain't it?

westofyou
08-05-2007, 01:34 PM
So, if they said they were in the "Lose Now" mode and were going to play only guys under 26 who have never proved anything at the MLB level everyone would be fine with that eh?

What a load.

RedsManRick
08-05-2007, 01:44 PM
So, if they said they were in the "Lose Now" mode and were going to play only guys under 26 who have never proved anything at the MLB level everyone would be fine with that eh?

What a load.

Playing "moon or bust" with a model rocket is going to accomplish anything. Playing guys who haven't proven anything at least gives them an opportunity to prove something.

RANDY IN INDY
08-05-2007, 01:46 PM
So, if they said they were in the "Lose Now" mode and were going to play only guys under 26 who have never proved anything at the MLB level everyone would be fine with that eh?

What a load.

:beerme:

indy_dave00
08-05-2007, 01:46 PM
If you are going to be a team 15-20 games under .500 , with baseball's worse bullpen , just how much worse can you be? Bring up young players don't continuely recycle Santos, Stone, Moeller, Bellhorn, Saarloos , Majewski , Wise . I magine yourself as a Joey Votto , AAA All Star hitting until recently over .300 , Reds need a bat for a few days -hmmmm better recall .248 hitting Mark Bellhorn , oh wait why not a 3rd catcher Chad Moeller such a pathetic hitter he gets one ab in a month. Wait lets activate Juan Castro who can't play in the field or hit.

What does this do to a young players mind set to be bypassed for a few days of being in the bigs , to watch a bunch of recycled vets be recalled? If I was a Votto , I'd be mad as hell , knowing I could fill in for a few days , experience the bigs and see what its like , gain a brief idea of adjustments. Then go back down with a renewed hunger to get back to Cincy and work my butt off even more.

All recycling players with no future or in most cases no real past back and forth accomplishes , is make a young player go do they really have plans for me? Do I have a big league future?

It would be different if this club looked as if it was making progress but its not . Its been the same thing all season , nothing has changed.

edabbs44
08-05-2007, 01:53 PM
So, if they said they were in the "Lose Now" mode and were going to play only guys under 26 who have never proved anything at the MLB level everyone would be fine with that eh?

What a load.

At least they'd be reaching their goals, since they are performing in "Lose Now" fashion. I'd rather them build for the future while losing now than do what they are currently doing.

Kc61
08-05-2007, 01:54 PM
Playing "moon or bust" with a model rocket is going to accomplish anything. Playing guys who haven't proven anything at least gives them an opportunity to prove something.

Every young player is not an upgrade. Every young player is not worthy of several years of starting assignments in the major leagues to see if he will pan out. A good GM doesn't just conduct a tryout camp in the major leagues. He uses young players only when he thinks they are ready and can help.

The fact is that, for all the kudos the Reds farm teams have received lately, there aren't exactly dozens of youngsters who look to be true major league front line players. Bruce definitely. Bailey and Cueto, probably, although we saw Homer's lack of readiness. Votto, probably, although right now he wouldn't be an upgrade over Hatteberg -- who is older, but with a .400 OBP and over .300 average this year.

Any other kids ready to make a run at stardom in the big leagues? I don't see any. To me, the problem is that Krivsky seems reluctant to trade for more good prospects. Perhaps they just aren't being offered. Maloney, acquired from Philly, looks pretty good. But you have to assume that Krivsky was unable to pry guys like that away from other teams.

I think "win now" is just rhetoric. The future is with the prospects, but the Reds don't have boatloads of them like the Brewers did when they put their team together.

traderumor
08-05-2007, 01:56 PM
I think Marty B. is ghost-writing for Fay in that one. That is MartyBall 101. Ooh, an idea for a book, perhaps...

RANDY IN INDY
08-05-2007, 01:56 PM
Every young player is not an upgrade. Every young player is not worthy of several years of starting assignment in the major leagues to see if he will pan out. A good GM doesn't just conduct a tryout camp in the major leagues. He uses young players only when he thinks they are ready and can help.

The fact is that, for all the kudos the Reds farm teams have received lately, there aren't exactly dozens of youngsters who look to be true major league front line players. Bruce definitely. Bailey and Cueto, probably, although we saw Homer's lack of readiness. Votto, probably, although right now he wouldn't be an upgrade over Hatteberg -- older, but with a .400 OBP and over .300 average this year.

Anybody other kids ready to make a run at stardom in the big leagues? I don't see any. To me, the problem is that Krivsky seems reluctant to trade for more good prospects. Perhaps they just aren't being offered. Maloney, acquired from Philly, looks pretty good. But you have to assume that Krivsky was unable to pry guys like that away from other teams.



I think "win now" is just rhetoric. The future is with the prospects, but the Reds don't have boatloads of them like the Brewers did when they put their team together.

Well said, Kc!:beerme:

NJReds
08-05-2007, 01:58 PM
That's a very scary article. This franchise is doomed to continued failure under this regime if that's really their attitude.

GAC
08-05-2007, 02:01 PM
If we can believe Fay, and that's a stretch, we now see the plan. GAC said a few days ago that the plan was to keep the big club stable and build the minors and he may be spot on.

And you're listening to me? Hell, what do I know? :mooner:

The article stated this...


When you want to win as quickly as possible, you bring in veteran free agents in hopes of a quick turnaround.

If the purpose for bringing in Conine, Moeller, Castro, Stanton, etc., was because they thought these guys would help us turn it around more quickly - and again, this may be due to our "success" in '06, which has led to some dillusional thinking, then Krivsky should be fired.

But I don't think, for the most part, that was the reasoning behind it at all. Krivsky knows that pitching, and especially the bullpen, has been our sore spot. And other then Stanton (and the Cormier fiasco), these other guys (vets) don't pitch, and he has used (experimented with) primarily youth in the area of pitching.

I've always felt the reasoning for bringing these guys in was....

#1 - you're not making any long term commitments to them, nor committing large sums of money.

#2 - for the most part, you don't have youngsters ready in the farm system, and this is a cheap way of giving them more time to develop without throwing them into the fire so to speak. And once those players get the callup, which I figured we would see by '08 in some cases, you then have no need for these players (i.e. a Hatteberg and Conine gone).

I have no excuses for Castro and Moeller. :D


But quit listening to me. :lol:

RFS62
08-05-2007, 02:05 PM
That's a typo. It was supposed to read Win?? How?????


:laugh: :laugh: :laugh:


I'd be happy enough if we were in "don't suck as bad now" mode.

pedro
08-05-2007, 02:05 PM
Every young player is not an upgrade. Every young player is not worthy of several years of starting assignments in the major leagues to see if he will pan out. A good GM doesn't just conduct a tryout camp in the major leagues. He uses young players only when he thinks they are ready and can help.

The fact is that, for all the kudos the Reds farm teams have received lately, there aren't exactly dozens of youngsters who look to be true major league front line players. Bruce definitely. Bailey and Cueto, probably, although we saw Homer's lack of readiness. Votto, probably, although right now he wouldn't be an upgrade over Hatteberg -- who is older, but with a .400 OBP and over .300 average this year.

Any other kids ready to make a run at stardom in the big leagues? I don't see any. To me, the problem is that Krivsky seems reluctant to trade for more good prospects. Perhaps they just aren't being offered. Maloney, acquired from Philly, looks pretty good. But you have to assume that Krivsky was unable to pry guys like that away from other teams.

I think "win now" is just rhetoric. The future is with the prospects, but the Reds don't have boatloads of them like the Brewers did when they put their team together.

:beerme:

RFS62
08-05-2007, 02:06 PM
Every young player is not an upgrade. Every young player is not worthy of several years of starting assignments in the major leagues to see if he will pan out. A good GM doesn't just conduct a tryout camp in the major leagues. He uses young players only when he thinks they are ready and can help.

The fact is that, for all the kudos the Reds farm teams have received lately, there aren't exactly dozens of youngsters who look to be true major league front line players. Bruce definitely. Bailey and Cueto, probably, although we saw Homer's lack of readiness. Votto, probably, although right now he wouldn't be an upgrade over Hatteberg -- who is older, but with a .400 OBP and over .300 average this year.

Any other kids ready to make a run at stardom in the big leagues? I don't see any. To me, the problem is that Krivsky seems reluctant to trade for more good prospects. Perhaps they just aren't being offered. Maloney, acquired from Philly, looks pretty good. But you have to assume that Krivsky was unable to pry guys like that away from other teams.

I think "win now" is just rhetoric. The future is with the prospects, but the Reds don't have boatloads of them like the Brewers did when they put their team together.



Outstanding post.

:beerme:

RANDY IN INDY
08-05-2007, 02:07 PM
You can't always turn horsecrap into a diamond, whether they are 23 or 36. It's delusional to think there are enough young prospects in the Reds system that are going to turn this thing around or that rushing them is the best course of action. The years of scouting and drafting debacles are not easily overcome. This farm system just isn't full of blue chip (or even major league) prospects right now. It's better, but still has a long ways to go.

indy_dave00
08-05-2007, 02:09 PM
You give a young player like Votto a taste of the bigs , it makes him even hungier to return. He goes down and works even harder. Is it pure coincidence he started slumping near the deadline and the Reds made no moves? Or did he lose a little hope of being recalled and is a little down emotionally?

I'm not saying every recall needs to be a young kid for an extended period . The Reds knew Juan Castro could not play in the field , barely could get the ball to first but yet they activate him for 4 or 5 days. Why not reward Votto with a brief recall ? He gets a couple at bats , experiences big league life briefly , hell maybe even give him a start and 4 ab's in a game. He goes back down thinking I wanna get back as quick as possible. He is renewed in Louisville and knows the Reds like him well enough to bring him up even briefly.

All he has got so far is lip service as others come up for brief periods.

Rewarding player you have plans for even briefly , rewards hard effort and makes their bellies burn to get back as quick as possible. Its the same reward system psychologist suggest we use on kids to achieve desired results. ( I had a college Psychology class).

pedro
08-05-2007, 02:11 PM
You give a young player like Votto a taste of the bigs , it makes him even hungier to return. He goes down and works even harder. Is it pure coincidence he started slumping near the deadlinewhen the Reds made no moves? Or did he loose a little hope of being recalled and is a little down emotionally?

I'm not saying every recall needs to be a young kid for an extended period . The Reds knew Juan Castro could not play in the field , barely could get the ball to first but yet they activate him for 4 or 5 days. Why not reward Votto with a brief recall ? He gets a couple at bats , experiences big league life briefly , hell maybe even give him a start and 4 ab's in a game. He goes back down thinking I wanna get back as quick as possible. He is renewed in Louisville and knows the Reds like him well enough to bring him up even briefly.

All he has got so far is lip service as others come up for brief periods.

Rewarding player you have plans for even briefly , rewards hard effort and makes their bellies burn to get back as quick as possible. Its the same reward system psychologist suggest we use on kids to achieve desired results. ( I had a college Psychology class).

It also burns an option year and starts their major league service clock thus hastening their eventual departure from Cincinnati if they ever do succeed.

Falls City Beer
08-05-2007, 02:13 PM
Every young player is not an upgrade. Every young player is not worthy of several years of starting assignments in the major leagues to see if he will pan out. A good GM doesn't just conduct a tryout camp in the major leagues. He uses young players only when he thinks they are ready and can help.

The fact is that, for all the kudos the Reds farm teams have received lately, there aren't exactly dozens of youngsters who look to be true major league front line players. Bruce definitely. Bailey and Cueto, probably, although we saw Homer's lack of readiness. Votto, probably, although right now he wouldn't be an upgrade over Hatteberg -- who is older, but with a .400 OBP and over .300 average this year.

Any other kids ready to make a run at stardom in the big leagues? I don't see any. To me, the problem is that Krivsky seems reluctant to trade for more good prospects. Perhaps they just aren't being offered. Maloney, acquired from Philly, looks pretty good. But you have to assume that Krivsky was unable to pry guys like that away from other teams.

I think "win now" is just rhetoric. The future is with the prospects, but the Reds don't have boatloads of them like the Brewers did when they put their team together.

Krivsky failure shows up on so many fronts it's like being surrounded by zombies: 1. He can't draft 2. He can't trade 3. He's for the most part bad at identifying the valuable old guys (Hatteberg excepted). 4. He wouldn't know a good bullpen arm if it were chopped off and handed to him.

indy_dave00
08-05-2007, 02:14 PM
His option for this year was burned the moment he was sent down this spring and was on the 40 man roster. He has 1 option against him now .

Service time amounts to the days he is up so 4 or 5 , it does not continue to add on if he is sent back down.

edabbs44
08-05-2007, 02:16 PM
It also burns an option year and starts their major league service clock thus hastening their eventual departure from Cincinnati if they ever do succeed.

That is a thin line, since prospects aren't stupid and know when they are being buried in AAA for that reason. I doubt Upton and Young will be dying to sign an extension to stay in Tampa unless it's a Godfather offer.

pedro
08-05-2007, 02:19 PM
That is a thin line, since prospects aren't stupid and know when they are being buried in AAA for that reason. I doubt Upton and Young will be dying to sign an extension to stay in Tampa unless it's a Godfather offer.

I think that's a good point and perhaps why Wayne didn't bury guys like Brendan Harris and Cody Ross who he didn't think fit into the Reds plans.

As for Upton & Young IIRC they both seem to have had their share of issues that have led to the way they were treated.

puca
08-05-2007, 02:19 PM
well to WIN NOW?? you need a legit bullpen.. time to open the wallet if you want to fix it.. this current crop isnt going to win anything!! in the offseason.. this should be the motto
"FIX THE PEN, TOO WIN!

I thought that has been Wayne's motto for the past 12 months. He has sure spent a lot of time and (apparent) effort trying to do just that.

KronoRed
08-05-2007, 02:21 PM
Maybe they should define "win now" if it means 'win more then 65 games' then it's working marvelously

puca
08-05-2007, 02:33 PM
I think that's a good point and perhaps why Wayne didn't bury guys like Brendan Harris and Cody Ross who he didn't think fit into the Reds plans.

As for Upton & Young IIRC they both seem to have had their share of issues that have led to the way they were treated.

Yea plans that apparently did include Juan Castro an Quinton McCracken. ;)

indy_dave00
08-05-2007, 02:39 PM
Major league service time is only accumulates when you are either on the major league 25 man roster or on the major league teams disabled list. Jerry Gil for example is on the major league disabled list at the end of this season he will a have a years service time. Bill Bray was accumulating service time while on the Reds dl once he was activated and sent out the service time clock stopped.

As for options once a player is placed on the 40 man roster , a team has unlimited options on him for the first three years.

He can be sent down and recalled 50 times in a year but its still just one option.

He can be sent dow each year for the first 3 years on the 40 man roster. If a team attempts to send him down a 4th year , he must clear waivers if a team claims him he is theirs. If he goes unclaimed he can then be sent down and the team optioning him retains his rights.

So since Joey Votto was on the Reds 40 man roster and was optioned to Louisville this spring . The Reds have burnt his first option , they could recall and send him down now and its still the 1st years option.

So 4-5 days up would be 4 or 5 days service time-no more. The option for 2008 has already been used once.

RANDY IN INDY
08-05-2007, 02:40 PM
I think that's a good point and perhaps why Wayne didn't bury guys like Brendan Harris and Cody Ross who he didn't think fit into the Reds plans.

As for Upton & Young IIRC they both seem to have had their share of issues that have led to the way they were treated.

Agree.

Kc61
08-05-2007, 02:47 PM
Yea plans that apparently did include Juan Castro an Quinton McCracken. ;)

I agree with the poster who said that some of these signings were intended just to help get the Reds through the current lean years. I have no problem signing stopgap players for a year or two -- you have to field a ballclub.

I don't fault Wayne for signing vets or for his handling of youngsters. I don't believe that 23 year old Joey Votto needs to be in the major leagues quite yet, particularly since his AAA numbers are good but not dominant. I also think Wayne has done a good job of adding international players to the Reds system.

My big problem is that most of the Reds top prospects are from O'Brien. The only two from this FO who have moved quickly are Roenicke and Dorn. I agree with the poster who says you can't miss on first round guys, particularly an 8th overall pick like Stubbs. You can't rebuild without strong drafts and I'm not sure about the last two.

Eric_Davis
08-05-2007, 02:51 PM
Fay's line: "You've got to make your top pick count" is silly. History shows that 1 out of 4 top picks count. He's right about the poor scouting of Latin players in the past has hurt the club. O'Brien started changing that and hopefully it's been expanded by Krivsky. I said hopefully, because I haven't paid attention to that end and I don't know what they've done as far as scouting in that area.

The Mexican League playoffs are going on right now. I would think there'd be a few players available that have advanced enough to replace some of the players we have in our system right now.

edabbs44
08-05-2007, 02:53 PM
I agree with the poster who said that some of these signings were intended just to help get the Reds through the current lean years. I have no problem signing stopgap players for a year or two -- you have to field a ballclub.

I don't fault Wayne for signing vets or for his handling of youngsters. I don't believe that 23 year old Joey Votto needs to be in the major leagues quite yet, particularly since his AAA numbers are good but not dominant. I also think Wayne has done a good job of adding international players to the Reds system.

My big problem is that most of the Reds top prospects are from O'Brien. The only two from this FO who have moved quickly are Roenicke and Dorn. I agree with the poster who says you can't miss on first round guys, particularly an 8th overall pick like Stubbs. You can't rebuild without strong drafts and I'm not sure about the last two.

There are plenty of players who could have replaced Stanton and Cormier's production for a fraction of the cost. It is Wayne's job to maximize the production using the money he is allowed to spend. IMO, he did an awful job at that this past offseason.

RedLegSuperStar
08-05-2007, 03:06 PM
Something tells me this offseason we'll see a different mode.. "Fill Holes With Trying To Catch Lightning In A Bottle Past Prime Veterans While Overpaying Players To Play Here"

Why now are we in "Win Now" mode? We aren't winning the division this year. We're not winning the wild card. We need to find what pieces are going to contribute to the team next year and who isn't. You know I agree with most of the comments here. Votto is your 1st Baseman next year. My goal would of been to deal Hatteberg and or Conine at the deadline and get Votto 2 months of major league pitching. Conine has stated he is leaning towards retiring after the season.. yet the team will start him 4-5 times a week. Reds continually put Matt Belisle on the mound every 5th start. For majority of the season we have 3 catchers on the Major League roster.

I'm sorry but if you are in "Win Now" mode.. don't you have to win? This team has been near the bottom of the division and at a time had the worst record in baseball. Stating you want to "WIN" is going to dent the wallet come the offseason because you are going to have to overpay athletes to come here and play in small ballpark such as this one. This team needs 2 starters and Belisle isn't one of them. Salmon and McBeth should be on this roster yesterday. Bray and Guardado are probably ready to contribute as well. This team can not continually run Stanton out there and think he is going to go back to the way he pitched two months ago. Does the "Win Now" mode consist of Adam Dunn? Because it will be really tough to deal him the rest of this season. If you pick up his option of 13.5 million dollars you can't deal him until after June 15th without him having a say in where he goes (Dunn chooses 10 teams to which he could be dealt to). But money isn't the issue I don't think.. especially when a team like the New York Yankees pay 28 million dollars to Roger Clemens for 5 months (3-5 with a 4.23 ERA). By the way Clemens turned 45 yesterday.

This team is what it is.. and I hope Bob Castellini does bring Championship baseball back to Cincinnati. Just know that it will more then likely mean spending money. It's just hard to swallow as a Reds fan to believe this because we've been hearing this song and dance for over 10 years. Since winning the division in 1995 the highest the Reds have finished was 2nd.. and that happened only twice ('99-'00). Note the Reds brass.. it's time to put your money where your mouth is..

Kc61
08-05-2007, 03:28 PM
There are plenty of players who could have replaced Stanton and Cormier's production for a fraction of the cost. It is Wayne's job to maximize the production using the money he is allowed to spend. IMO, he did an awful job at that this past offseason.

Maybe. I think he's hit on a few, missed on a few. Maybe Wayne could have lost more cheaply, but the team would have lost nonetheless. When going after talent at the "replacement level" you aren't vying for contention in any event. And let's face it, last off-season the team pursued replacement level players and was unwilling to spend meaningfully. My supposition is that this was ownership's call.

Krivsky's success or failure will boil down to one thing -- can he build, relatively quickly, a major league pitching staff. Last off-season I saw no effort whatsoever to build a first class staff. There was an obvious need for a third starter and a closer and they weren't obtained. Krivsky declared that he was comfortable with Milton and Lohse, just an incredible statement given their previous year's performance. Again, I assume ownership wasn't ready to spend.

So, while I think he has made a number of good moves, ownership and Krivsky have to face the reality that their pitching staff has only one top arm, Harang, and a bunch of question marks. If they want to "win now" they have a lot of work to do. I'd rather see them build with younger pitchers, but given the state of the farm, it will take a number of years.

mth123
08-05-2007, 05:02 PM
I agree with the poster who said that some of these signings were intended just to help get the Reds through the current lean years. I have no problem signing stopgap players for a year or two -- you have to field a ballclub.

I don't fault Wayne for signing vets or for his handling of youngsters.

I think it was obvious that the Reds needed to bring some help in from outside the organization. My problem is signing too many low level vets for too large a % of the payroll collectively. Many minor league free agents could have served the same purpose as some of these relatively more expensive guys. Maybe save a little of the dough on some of these positions with minor league free agent types and with more money now available sign better guys instead of the others. I'd rather have a minimum RH 1B and a better more expensive reliever than the combination of Conine and Stanton for instance. Conine's .720ish OPS is hardly a surprise. It isn't that these guys disappointed as much as the resources could have been allocated better.

The bonus is that if any of the minor league free agent types pan out, you get multiple years out of them. Conine is one and done.

edabbs44
08-05-2007, 05:08 PM
I'd rather have a minimum RH 1B and a better more expensive reliever than the combination of Conine and Stanton for instance. Conine's .720ish OPS is hardly a surprise. It isn't that these guys disappointed as much as the resources could have been allocated better.

Would have much rather had Eduardo Perez and Dotel than those two. Or something of that nature.

Johnny Footstool
08-05-2007, 08:57 PM
I agree that "Win now" is just lip service. If the Reds really wanted to win, they would have signed Octavio Dotel or even Eric Gagne last offseason. Their refusal to do so showed that they weren't really all that interested in winning now.

It looks like the current plan is to throw a few million dollars at token veteran free agents, then sell season tickets based on the idea that "if a few things go right, we can win the division. This plan has been perfected by the Royals and Pirates, with stunning results.

pedro
08-05-2007, 10:16 PM
I agree that "Win now" is just lip service. If the Reds really wanted to win, they would have signed Octavio Dotel or even Eric Gagne last offseason. Their refusal to do so showed that they weren't really all that interested in winning now.

It looks like the current plan is to throw a few million dollars at token veteran free agents, then sell season tickets based on the idea that "if a few things go right, we can win the division. This plan has been perfected by the Royals and Pirates, with stunning results.

I just don't think the Reds, like many other teams, felt Dotel was a good risk after not pitching very much for almost 2 years. Otherwise there is no way he would have ended up with KC as he did.

RedLegSuperStar
08-05-2007, 10:26 PM
I agree that "Win now" is just lip service. If the Reds really wanted to win, they would have signed Octavio Dotel or even Eric Gagne last offseason. Their refusal to do so showed that they weren't really all that interested in winning now.

It looks like the current plan is to throw a few million dollars at token veteran free agents, then sell season tickets based on the idea that "if a few things go right, we can win the division. This plan has been perfected by the Royals and Pirates, with stunning results.

Besides Andruw Jones and Carlos Zambrano..Unless Alex Rodriguez opts out. I just think the choices are slim compared to the following free angency.

If we truly are going for "Win Now" these are names that I might go after: Randy Wolf, Jeremy Affeldt, Freddy Garcia (if it's incentive based), Livan Hernandez, Jason Jennings, Scott Linebrink, Francisco Cordero, Octavio Dotel, Eric Byrnes, Mike Lowell, and Ivan Rodriguez

Johnny Footstool
08-06-2007, 12:46 AM
I just don't think the Reds, like many other teams, felt Dotel was a good risk after not pitching very much for almost 2 years. Otherwise there is no way he would have ended up with KC as he did.

Dotel was looking for a job as closer. Very few teams had an open spot -- the Royals were one of them. The Reds were also one of them, but Wayne didn't want to risk $5 million on him. Instead, the Reds paid Stanton to suck and Cormier not to pitch. Great choice.

RedsManRick
08-06-2007, 01:11 AM
Dotel has an ERA near 5 and a WHIP over 1.50. He's been only nominally better than Stanton. The point isn't that WK signed the wrong low ceiling, low risk, low reward veteran. It's that he signed them at all. Given the level of production that could reasonably expected, we could've gotten the same performances we've gotten from Stanton, Cormier, Conine, etc from cheaper sources, maybe even ones with upside. We would've been better off drafting somebody who slipped for signability reasons, simply invested in international scouting, or done something else with that money that had some chance of actually helping the team make the playoffs down the road.

Instead, WK opted for a less (initially) embarrasing method of losing while he continued to wait for the impact help to develop. Money spent half-assedly saving face in the short term under the guise of "winning now" instead of being honest and devoting a full effort towards success in the future. It hasn't worked for the Pirates. It hasn't worked for the Royals. And it won't work for the Reds.

Caveat Emperor
08-06-2007, 01:27 AM
Instead, WK opted for a less (initially) embarrasing method of losing while he continued to wait for the impact help to develop. Money spent half-assedly saving face in the short term under the guise of "winning now" instead of being honest and devoting a full effort towards success in the future. It hasn't worked for the Pirates. It hasn't worked for the Royals. And it won't work for the Reds.

And what would "full effort" be? Selling off everything for prospects and hoping some of them pan out in the next 2-3 years?

Prospects are the single most overvalued commodity in baseball right now. The great ones aren't moving and the good ones are requiring a king's ransom to pry away. Though, to read around here I'm sure it's Krivsky's fault that he hasn't managed to convince some team to buck the trend, abandon good sense, and sell the farm for Dunn or Hatteberg.

Johnny Footstool
08-06-2007, 02:00 AM
Dotel has an ERA near 5 and a WHIP over 1.50. He's been only nominally better than Stanton.


And yet the Royals now have 23 year old Kyle Davies in their organization.

The Rangers gambled on Gagne and how have a decent starter (25 year old Kason Gabbard) and two other prospects in their organization.

Krivsky gambled on Stanton and the Reds still have him, without adding any youth to the organization at all.

There was risk involved with all three, but clearly Dotel and Gagne had much higher upside.

Krivsky's lack of vision is thoroughly disappointing.

RedsManRick
08-06-2007, 09:52 AM
And yet the Royals now have 23 year old Kyle Davies in their organization.

The Rangers gambled on Gagne and how have a decent starter (25 year old Kason Gabbard) and two other prospects in their organization.

Krivsky gambled on Stanton and the Reds still have him, without adding any youth to the organization at all.

There was risk involved with all three, but clearly Dotel and Gagne had much higher upside.

Krivsky's lack of vision is thoroughly disappointing.

My point exactly Johnny. It's not that he didn't sign Dotel. It's that Dotel was turned in to Kyle Davies and what did Krivsky do at the deadline?

Caveat Emporer, yes. What function does Conine serve on this team? Let's pretend you have a dollar today. I give you two choices: trade me your dollar for a dime today, or flush your dollar down the toilet in September. Yes, I would rather have a prospect with a 10% chance of becoming a decent major leaguer than a replacement level veteran eating payroll and having a 0% chance of contributing to a winning Reds team.

I'm sure he tried to trade Conine, but there were no young, injured, mediocre relievers available.

nate
08-06-2007, 10:18 AM
My point exactly Johnny. It's not that he didn't sign Dotel. It's that Dotel was turned in to Kyle Davies and what did Krivsky do at the deadline?

How many trades were made at the deadline? Seems like the fewest I can remember in a long time. Gots to have what the peoples wants and they has haves whatcha wants, you know?

We got rid of a pitching doppelganger and received an intriguing left-handed arm.


Caveat Emporer, yes. What function does Conine serve on this team? Let's pretend you have a dollar today. I give you two choices: trade me your dollar for a dime today, or flush your dollar down the toilet in September. Yes, I would rather have a prospect with a 10% chance of becoming a decent major leaguer than a replacement level veteran eating payroll and having a 0% chance of contributing to a winning Reds team.

Can't I put the dollar on the waiver wire and see if I can flip it for something before the deadline?


I'm sure he tried to trade Conine, but there were no young, injured, mediocre relievers available.

OK, now I see how you rank players:

1. prospect with a 10% chance of becoming a decent major leaguer

2. young, injured, mediocre relievers

3. Jeff Conine

RedsManRick
08-06-2007, 10:20 AM
OK, now I see how you rank players:

1. prospect with a 10% chance of becoming a decent major leaguer

2. young, injured, mediocre relievers

3. Jeff Conine

For a team that is going to lose somewhere between 90 and 100 games, with or without Jeff Conine? Absolutely!

nate
08-06-2007, 10:24 AM
For a team that is going to lose somewhere between 90 and 100 games, with or without Jeff Conine? Absolutely!

He has a young body. I bet he can pitch as well as the other two AND he can still be a pitch hitter.

There, I solved all the problems. Where do I send the invoice?

flyer85
08-06-2007, 10:35 AM
It's what I suspected all along. It was the reason DanO was fired WK was hired. If WK went in now and said the word "rebuild" he'd been looking for a job within minutes.

redsmetz
08-06-2007, 10:36 AM
How many trades were made at the deadline? Seems like the fewest I can remember in a long time. Gots to have what the peoples wants and they has haves whatcha wants, you know?

Actually, we made two trades this deadline, compared to four last year, one in each of 2005 and 2004 and the bloodbath of 2003 with six.

nate
08-06-2007, 10:50 AM
Actually, we made two trades this deadline, compared to four last year, one in each of 2005 and 2004 and the bloodbath of 2003 with six.

I meant in comparison to what other teams did this year.

Johnny Footstool
08-06-2007, 10:51 AM
How many trades were made at the deadline? Seems like the fewest I can remember in a long time. Gots to have what the peoples wants and they has haves whatcha wants, you know?

Two of the three biggest deals involved the two closers the Reds could have signed last offseason -- Dotel and Gagne. It didn't matter that they had been hurt and only mildly effective. Teams still wanted them for their potentially high ceiling.

nate
08-06-2007, 11:05 AM
Two of the three biggest deals involved the two closers the Reds could have signed last offseason -- Dotel and Gagne. It didn't matter that they had been hurt and only mildly effective. Teams still wanted them for their potentially high ceiling.

How do you know the Reds didn't try to sign them?

bucksfan2
08-06-2007, 11:23 AM
I think in order to understand the construction of this club you have to go back to last year. Cast takes over and the reds end up in the last series of the season with the chance of making the playoffs. This is after they stumbled down the stretch and tried everything to lose as much as they could. Cast sees this, wants to win now, and tells Krivsky put together a contender without spending too much money. He sees some talent in the minors and probably believes that if you put a few more pieces into the puzzle you will have a contender. Well those moves went bad and there was very little being offered on the trade market. Complaining about guys who they should have signed seemes to be the route many are going here because of the dismal season. I do remember a large contingent of reds fans who wanted to signed Craig Wilson and were upset when he signed elsewhere.

westofyou
08-06-2007, 11:24 AM
I do remember a large contingent of reds fans who wanted to signed Craig Wilson and were upset when he signed elsewhere.

Yeah, he must have lost out on the BBT gig to Eduardo too.

Bad year for Craig..

Johnny Footstool
08-06-2007, 11:31 AM
How do you know the Reds didn't try to sign them?

Krivsky said he wasn't interested in any of the free agent relievers available at the time. Plus Dotel ended up in *Kansas City* for relatively little money -- I doubt he would have signed there if he had a comparable offer from the Reds.


Complaining about guys who they should have signed seemes to be the route many are going here because of the dismal season.

I complained about missing out on Dotel back when the Royals signed him. The current dismal season was a foregone conclusion.

westofyou
08-06-2007, 11:37 AM
Krivsky said he wasn't interested in any of the free agent relievers available at the time. Plus Dotel ended up in *Kansas City* for relatively little money -- I doubt he would have signed there if he had a comparable offer from the Reds.

So if Krivsky gave 5.5 million bucks and a player option for the same amount to a pitcher who hadn't thrown but 25 innings and faced 124 batters in two years... plus anointed him closer you think folks would have had no problem with it?

Even considering he didn't step on the field until 5-24?

I say they would, and that the gamble was and probably still is big enough to bite the Braves (now) in the arse.

I'll also counter if WK makes that move he gets pounded on this board daily.

edabbs44
08-06-2007, 11:43 AM
So if Krivsky gave 5.5 million bucks and a player option for the same amount to a pitcher who hadn't thrown but 25 innings and faced 124 batters in two years... plus anointed him closer you think folks would have had no problem with it?

Even considering he didn't step on the field until 5-24?

I say they would, and that the gamble was and probably still is big enough to bite the Braves (now) in the arse.

I'll also counter if WK makes that move he gets pounded on this board daily.

Who cares if Wayne gets pounded on this board at the time of a move? All that matters is if it works out in the end. That's what he should be mostly judged on.

westofyou
08-06-2007, 11:51 AM
Who cares if Wayne gets pounded on this board at the time of a move? All that matters is if it works out in the end. That's what he should be mostly judged on.

No one cares, but the fact is he would get pounded and you'd probably be one of the guys with the hammer.

I think it's a bad contract, player option, 5.5 for a guy who hasn't touched success in two years, he's got about 3 million bucks so far this season.

More then Stanton and Conine... yet he's being portrayed here as a great signing.

Pshawwwww I say, you guys can hate what you want and I'll hate what I want.

edabbs44
08-06-2007, 12:00 PM
No one cares, but the fact is he would get pounded and you'd probably be one of the guys with the hammer.

I think it's a bad contract, player option, 5.5 for a guy who hasn't touched success in two years, he's got about 3 million bucks so far this season.

More then Stanton and Conine... yet he's being portrayed here as a great signing.

Pshawwwww I say, you guys can hate what you want and I'll hate what I want.

Dotel was a high reward signing that I was all for in the off-season. Check the archives. I hammer stupid moves (i.e., signing Stanton, trading for Conine, etc.) I think my thought process regarding Dotel was a one year deal who could be shopped for prospects at the deadline if the team sucks. Boy, was I right about that.

I hate moves that don't help this team. That's when the hammer comes out.

RedsManRick
08-06-2007, 12:00 PM
The only reason Dotel has any value is because of the scarlet C label. If the Dotel situation shows anything, it's that if anything is more overvalued than mediocre prospects, it's a save stat that gives value to a guy who otherwise is an overpriced, poor reliever.

edabbs44
08-06-2007, 12:11 PM
The only reason Dotel has any value is because of the scarlet C label. If the Dotel situation shows anything, it's that if anything is more overvalued than mediocre prospects, it's a save stat that gives value to a guy who otherwise is an overpriced, poor reliever.

Nothing wrong with exploiting that to the benefit of your team.

buckeyenut
08-06-2007, 12:13 PM
I can live with the fact that the Reds started the year out in win now mode. They SHOULD NOT be in Win now mode anymore. They should be in Win in 2008 mode.

So, in order to do that, you look at the pieces that can help you next year vs the pieces that can be replaced next year or high risk to decline next year. And for those pieces, you move them to people they can help right now.

On that list would have been
Lohse (assuming you won't resign him)
Conine (replaceable in offseason, high likelihood to retire)
Stanton (replaceable in offseason, high likelihood to decline)
Weathers (great this year, high risk to fall off next year)
Hatteburg (great this year, high risk to fall off next year)

Votto replaces the 1B next year, Bailey replaces Lohse. Weathers and Stanton, you have to hope the kids step up, but you also explore trade market. The key with this group is you are getting chips to deal for other pieces in the offseason or guys to fill in holes down the road. Maloney was a nice example. A good solid back of rotation type of guy.

On the list of guys who will help next year but who are dealable if the price is right
Griffey (highest value he has been in years and big risk to decline, Bruce will be ready soon)
Gonzalez (no replacement in system, solid but not spectacular)
Freel (as much press as he gets, he is still a utility player on a good team)
Dunn (would have had to match price on Teix)
Arroyo (worried that our managers have damaged him long term, so if I got more than my asking price for Dunn, I'd think hard)

You deal anyone from the first group, it doesn't have much impact on you in 2008. You deal anyone from the second group, it will impact you in 2008 and so you had better get something special. But not dealing guys from either group because you want to Win Now or give your interim manager a chance is assinine and quite frankly, if it is coming from Krivsky rather than Cast, is a fireable offense IMO.

Heath
08-06-2007, 12:27 PM
ironically, wouldn't Gagne and Dotel be classified as "veteran precense"?

I don't think the Reds are the only team with this "problem".

Johnny Footstool
08-06-2007, 12:28 PM
So if Krivsky gave 5.5 million bucks and a player option for the same amount to a pitcher who hadn't thrown but 25 innings and faced 124 batters in two years... plus anointed him closer you think folks would have had no problem with it?

I wouldn't have. Lots of others wouldn't have, either -- edabbs44 for one.

And we would have gone 'round and 'round with those who did.

Kc61
08-06-2007, 12:28 PM
I can live with the fact that the Reds started the year out in win now mode. They SHOULD NOT be in Win now mode anymore. They should be in Win in 2008 mode.


You deal anyone from the first group, it doesn't have much impact on you in 2008. You deal anyone from the second group, it will impact you in 2008 and so you had better get something special. But not dealing guys from either group because you want to Win Now or give your interim manager a chance is assinine and quite frankly, if it is coming from Krivsky rather than Cast, is a fireable offense IMO.

I think the Reds were unwilling to spend this past off-season. This was ownership's call, no doubt. Krivsky had to understand that he needed more and better pitching and he acquired very little.

This trade deadline, Krivsky probably was looking to trade veterans for youth, but except in the Philly trade likely wasn't offered much. So he decided not to trade for second and third rank prospects. I can understand this and don't blame him for it, althought it is disappointing. I wanted to see him get more young pitching, and he only got Maloney, who seems pretty good. I doubt Krivsky sat still because of a win now philosophy. He knows better than all of us that this team isn't a winner.

Krivsky will likely trade Conine and perhaps Stanton in August. They will likely clear waivers. The Reds may not want to trade Weathers and Hatteberg because both are still good and their replacements unclear or possibly unready. Yes, Reds may feel Votto is not quite ready. He is 23.

I blame Krivsky for some bad deals. Extending Coffey for example. But I don't think it was a "fireable offense" not to trade under these circumstances. Really, would it advance the ball to have him trade Jeff Conine for some low ceiling middle reliever in High A ball? And if he moved Dunn for second tier prospects -- which is likely what he was offered -- would that have been a productive move?

westofyou
08-06-2007, 12:50 PM
I wouldn't have. Lots of others wouldn't have, either -- edabbs44 for one.

And we would have gone 'round and 'round with those who did.

11 million bucks for that last two years line and a 33 year old reliever and it would have been "OK" here on RZ eh?

Edabbs also thinks the Reds should have signed Eduardo Perez.

edabbs44
08-06-2007, 12:57 PM
11 million bucks for that last two years line and a 33 year old reliever and it would have been "OK" here on RZ eh?

Edabbs also thinks the Reds should have signed Eduardo Perez.

Eduardo Perez over Conine and the Reds are $2 mil richer while the worst case would still have them in last place. Don't see any downside there, unless you consider Conine as being a key cog in the run for the #1 pick in '08.

And I believe it is a mutual option for the second year on Dotel's contract, so the Reds would have been able to walk away.

BRM
08-06-2007, 12:59 PM
'08 is a $5.5M player option for Dotel according to Cot's.

westofyou
08-06-2007, 01:01 PM
Eduardo Perez over Conine and the Reds are $2 mil richer while the worst case would still have them in last place. Don't see any downside there, unless you consider Conine as being a key cog in the run for the #1 pick in '08.

And I believe it is a mutual option for the second year on Dotel's contract, so the Reds would have been able to walk away.

Yes, nothing in a suit in Bristol CT is always better then "something" standing on the field in a MLB ballpark.


Yes it's his option, not mutual... though it looks like there is a clause, not sure how that works.

he also got 250 K just when he was activated.... and he has a clause tied to being traded.

# signed as a free agent 12/06
# 07:$5M, 08: player option at $5.5M, plus 2007 bonuses earned
# if Dotel exercises 2008 player option, club may elect to void it
# $2.25M in performance bonuses for 2007

* $0.2M each for 15, 20, 25, 30, 35, 40, 45, 50, 55 and 60 GF
* $0.25M for 65 GF

# 2008 performance bonuses: any GF marks not earned in 2007
# award bonuses: $0.1M for World Series MVP, $0.1M for Rolaids award ($50,000 for 2nd-5th), $0.1M for MVP ($50,000 for 2nd-5th), $50,000 each for Gold Glove, LCS MVP or All Star selection
# 1 year/$2M (2006), plus performance bonuses

* signed as a free agent 12/05

* bonuses include:

o $0.25M when activated
o $3M based on games

o $2.5M for games finished (in the event he is traded)

edabbs44
08-06-2007, 01:02 PM
'08 is a $5.5M player option for Dotel according to Cot's.

'08 is a mutual option according to KC Star article from 2 weeks ago.

http://www.kansascity.com/sports/story/207321.html

RedsManRick
08-06-2007, 01:03 PM
11 million bucks for that last two years line and a 33 year old reliever and it would have been "OK" here on RZ eh?

Edabbs also thinks the Reds should have signed Eduardo Perez.

I wouldn't have been happy with that Dotel contract in the least. Dayton Moore should be thrilled to have gotten Kyle Davies for him.

Eduardo Perez would likely have been as effective in a platoon situation as Jeff Conine has been.

Eduardo Perez (38), vL 2004-2006: .260/.345/.498
Jeff Conine (40), vL 2004-226: .269/.352/.419

Let's not forget that Conine didn't just make about $1.5M more than Perez would have, but we traded Brad Key and Javon Moran to get him. Yes, Key is a complete non-prospect and Moran has a 4th OF ceiling, but they are assets none-the-less that could've been sent out in deals that were actually productive. We traded away players to acquire a rental who was more expensive than better alternatives, provided replacement level value, and was not flipped for anything at the deadline.

edabbs44
08-06-2007, 01:03 PM
Yes, nothing in a suit in Bristol CT is always better then "something" standing on the field in a MLB ballpark.


Yes it's his option, not mutual.

# signed as a free agent 12/06
# 07:$5M, 08: player option at $5.5M, plus 2007 bonuses earned
# if Dotel exercises 2008 player option, club may elect to void it
# $2.25M in performance bonuses for 2007

* $0.2M each for 15, 20, 25, 30, 35, 40, 45, 50, 55 and 60 GF
* $0.25M for 65 GF

# 2008 performance bonuses: any GF marks not earned in 2007
# award bonuses: $0.1M for World Series MVP, $0.1M for Rolaids award ($50,000 for 2nd-5th), $0.1M for MVP ($50,000 for 2nd-5th), $50,000 each for Gold Glove, LCS MVP or All Star selection
# 1 year/$2M (2006), plus performance bonuses

* signed as a free agent 12/05

* bonuses include:

o $0.25M when activated
o $3M based on games

o $2.5M for games finished (in the event he is traded)

The bold type is interesting.

BRM
08-06-2007, 01:04 PM
'08 is a mutual option according to KC Star article from 2 weeks ago.

http://www.kansascity.com/sports/story/207321.html

Sports journalists have been wrong before. Cot's and MLB4U both have it as a player option.

BRM
08-06-2007, 01:05 PM
# signed as a free agent 12/06
# 07:$5M, 08: player option at $5.5M, plus 2007 bonuses earned
# if Dotel exercises 2008 player option, club may elect to void it
# $2.25M in performance bonuses for 2007


What does that bolded part mean? How can the club void the option if he exercises it? That sounds more like a mutual option even though it says it's a player option.

westofyou
08-06-2007, 01:05 PM
The bold type is interesting.

It's vague.. wouldn't it be a "mutual" option if worded that way? Only Dotel would not be the one who gets to turn it down, because he's the only one who may exercise it.

So then there is a chance that he tries to JD Drew his way to a better situation next season.

westofyou
08-06-2007, 01:09 PM
Eduardo Perez would likely have been as effective in a platoon situation as Jeff Conine has been.

See when a guy is retired he can't even get between the lines to quantify that statement, so I have to now it's not likely at all.

Johnny Footstool
08-06-2007, 01:23 PM
11 million bucks for that last two years line and a 33 year old reliever and it would have been "OK" here on RZ eh?

The rest of RedsZone is entitled to their opinions.

I liked the move, and it paid off for the Royals.

RedsManRick
08-06-2007, 01:25 PM
Jesse Gutierrez is hitting lefties to the tune of .357/.422/.589 in 2007. However, we'll never know if he's capable of hitting lefties in the major leagues because teams like the Reds keep giving guys like Jeff Conine $2M to provide veteran leadership to last place teams.

edabbs44
08-06-2007, 01:37 PM
See when a guy is retired he can't even get between the lines to quantify that statement, so I have to now it's not likely at all.

It has less to do with the projection of Perez's production than it does with the lack of production from Conine. It wouldn't be difficult to replace his production with someone cheaper.

westofyou
08-06-2007, 01:41 PM
The rest of RedsZone is entitled to their opinions.

I liked the move, and it paid off for the Royals.

What about the other ones you liked? Foulke, Pinero they worked out poorly. Everyone's not winner when you make long shot bets, and Dotel is still a long shot bet at this point IMO.

edabbs44
08-06-2007, 01:45 PM
What about the other ones you liked? Foulke, Pinero they worked out poorly. Everyone's not winner when you make long shot bets, and Dotel is still a long shot bet at this point IMO.

Dotel isn't a longshot anymore because he is now off KC's books. Odds are he wouldn't still be a Red if Krivsky had signed him.

Johnny Footstool
08-06-2007, 01:49 PM
What about the other ones you liked? Foulke, Pinero they worked out poorly. Everyone's not winner when you make long shot bets, and Dotel is still a long shot bet at this point IMO.

Foulke retired, ultimately costing the Indians nothing.

Pinero didn't work out, but then again, he didn't have Dotel's upside, did he? And the Red Sox were still able to pawn him off on the Cardinals.

I also liked Justin Speier, who has struggled to stay healthy, but has been very good in the 20 innings he has pitched this year.

What about the ones you liked?

M2
08-06-2007, 01:50 PM
I think it's funny that we've got one thread titled "Unrealistic expectations" and another titled "Reds in 'Win Now' mode".

The franchise might want to show a few signs that it's not hopelessly confused.

westofyou
08-06-2007, 01:54 PM
Foulke retired, ultimately costing the Indians nothing.

Other then setting up the BP for him. I'd think he left them in a lurch, but time is money so they got screwed a bit.


What about the ones you liked?

I didn't like any of the crap in that FA market, still don't care for it much either.

Danny Serafini
08-06-2007, 02:17 PM
The Royals basically committed $11 million to a lottery ticket and a prayer when they signed Dotel. It worked out for them, congratulations. It's also the exact wrong way for small market teams to be spending their money. The fact that the Royals got lucky doesn't make the move smart.

edabbs44
08-06-2007, 02:20 PM
The Royals basically committed $11 million to a lottery ticket and a prayer when they signed Dotel. It worked out for them, congratulations. It's also the exact wrong way for small market teams to be spending their money. The fact that the Royals got lucky doesn't make the move smart.

Not sure why that is a lottery ticket. TJ surgery survivors are pretty common, and this is two years after he had the surgery.

They didn't commit $11 million to him, as it is a mutual option for '08. That same money could have been taken away from Stanton and given to Dotel for one year. Which one would you rather have had?

Danny Serafini
08-06-2007, 02:42 PM
Not sure why that is a lottery ticket. TJ surgery survivors are pretty common, and this is two years after he had the surgery.

They didn't commit $11 million to him, as it is a mutual option for '08. That same money could have been taken away from Stanton and given to Dotel for one year. Which one would you rather have had?

There have been more sources that say player option than mutual, so for now that's an $11 million commitment. But I wouldn't have committed $5.5M to damaged goods. Especially if I'm the Royals, who had no use for a closer in the first place. Their only hope was that he recovered and pitched well enough to trade. The odds of that hitting weren't that good, and didn't justify the risk.

Giving Stanton a two year deal was a mistake just based on his age. And he hasn't had a good year. But let's take the names off for a minute, since hindsight is 20/20. If you're a small market team who needs to spend wisely which player do you take, the guy coming off of a season with a 3.99 ERA for $2.5 million, or a guy who's been damaged goods for two years and had more runs allowed than innings pitched last year for $5.5 million?

The Royals got lucky. More often than not the result of that signing would be getting stuck with a bad contract.

edabbs44
08-06-2007, 02:51 PM
There have been more sources that say player option than mutual, so for now that's an $11 million commitment. But I wouldn't have committed $5.5M to damaged goods. Especially if I'm the Royals, who had no use for a closer in the first place. Their only hope was that he recovered and pitched well enough to trade. The odds of that hitting weren't that good, and didn't justify the risk.

Giving Stanton a two year deal was a mistake just based on his age. And he hasn't had a good year. But let's take the names off for a minute, since hindsight is 20/20. If you're a small market team who needs to spend wisely which player do you take, the guy coming off of a season with a 3.99 ERA for $2.5 million, or a guy who's been damaged goods for two years and had more runs allowed than innings pitched last year for $5.5 million?

The Royals got lucky. More often than not the result of that signing would be getting stuck with a bad contract.

Both the KC Star and AJC report it as a voidable option, so I'm gonna go ahead and believe the hometown newspapers over someone's blog.

Listen...if you want to take the names off of stats, maybe Cincy should have traded Griffey for Jonny Gomes or Cantu last season. You also didn't mention that the guy with the 3.99 ERA was 40 years old and was being signed to a 2 year contract or that the other's guys stats last year came while he just got back from TJ surgery.

Caveat Emperor
08-06-2007, 02:54 PM
They didn't commit $11 million to him, as it is a mutual option for '08. That same money could have been taken away from Stanton and given to Dotel for one year. Which one would you rather have had?

Neither -- they were both awful signings that should, by all rights, have blown up in both teams faces.

The fact that it ended up working out for the Royals doesn't excuse the idiocy of throwing the kind of money they did at a player with the injury history and track record of Dotel. I can't give a pass to poor judgment just because a team happens to luck into a guy that nets them return. All that does is encourage future bad decision making based on the same line of thinking.

edabbs44
08-06-2007, 02:55 PM
Neither -- they were both awful signings that should, by all rights, have blown up in both teams faces.

The fact that it ended up working out for the Royals doesn't excuse the idiocy of throwing the kind of money they did at a player with the injury history and track record of Dotel. I can't give a pass to poor judgment just because a team happens to luck into a guy that nets them return. All that does is encourage future bad decision making based on the same line of thinking.

My thinking is that Dotel would have been a better use of funds than Stanton. I would rather have taken that money and dumped it into the farm system. But since that doesn't seem to be a possibility, then go for the high upside guys.

Johnny Footstool
08-06-2007, 02:57 PM
Neither -- they were both awful signings that should, by all rights, have blown up in both teams faces.

The fact that it ended up working out for the Royals doesn't excuse the idiocy of throwing the kind of money they did at a player with the injury history and track record of Dotel. I can't give a pass to poor judgment just because a team happens to luck into a guy that nets them return. All that does is encourage future bad decision making based on the same line of thinking.

Ignoring upside is a sure way to stay mediocre.

The Reds were going to throw money away one way or another. They proved that.

They should have gone with the guys who had some upside.

westofyou
08-06-2007, 02:59 PM
http://www.mlb4u.com/profile.php?id=967


Contract:

signed deal for 2007 season worth $5M on 12/8/06- + he can earn $2.25M in performance bonuses based on GF: $200K each for 15, 20, 25, 30, 35, 40, 45, 50, 55 and 60 GF; $250K for 65 GF- + he can possibly earn performance bonuses in 2008 beginning with the first 2007 performance bonus plateau not reached- + he can earn award bonuses: $1M for WS MVP, $100K for Rolaids award ($50K for 2nd-5th finish), $100K for MVP ($50 for 2nd-5th finish), $50K each for Gold Glove, LCS MVP or All-Star selection- + the deal includes a player option for 2008 worth $5.5M- + the value of the option rises up to $8M based on the amount of performance bonuses earned in 2007- + if he exercises the option, the club may decline it- + 2006 salary: $2M (+ $250K roster bonus), 2005: $4.75M
Agent: Danny Horwits

+ the value of the option rises up to $8M based on the amount of performance bonuses earned in 2007

FWIW John Bale has been Moore's worst pitching pick up so far

Red Leader
08-06-2007, 03:04 PM
I'm hearing this "Win Now" mode a lot.

I just wonder if it's going to stick. I wonder if during the offseason, they'll decline Dunn's option and conveniently do away with the "Win Now" mode until Spring Training rolls around.

Then, they'll go back to "Win Now" mode to sell tickets to the casual fan...

Johnny Footstool
08-06-2007, 03:19 PM
Other then setting up the BP for him. I'd think he left them in a lurch, but time is money so they got screwed a bit.

Screwed them all the way to first place. They have plenty of better options if they tire of Borowski


I didn't like any of the crap in that FA market, still don't care for it much either.

So how do the Reds get better without taking some risks? I prefer taking chances on guys with upside as opposed to setting the cruise control at 54 mph with guys like Stanton.

Big Klu
08-06-2007, 03:19 PM
See when a guy is retired he can't even get between the lines to quantify that statement, so I have to now it's not likely at all.

I get the feeling that the desire for Eduardo Perez has more to do with his parentage than his performance. Jeff Conine is, and always has been, a better player than Eduardo Perez.

I find it interesting that many at RedsZone were upset that the Reds signed Conine instead of Perez or Craig Wilson, yet Conine is the only one who is still gainfully employed as a major-league baseball player.

(Personally, I wanted Wilson, but figured that he didn't want to come to Cincinnati, so I was OK with Conine as a second choice.)

Johnny Footstool
08-06-2007, 03:22 PM
I find it interesting that many at RedsZone were upset that the Reds signed Conine instead of Perez or Craig Wilson, yet Conine is the only one who is still gainfully employed as a major-league baseball player.



Not that interesting. Conine is Krivsky's guy, so he's sticking with him.

westofyou
08-06-2007, 03:34 PM
Not that interesting. Conine is Krivsky's guy, so he's sticking with him.

Yet he's been in the most trade rumors of the "Vets"

My guess is he's dealt by the end of the month and Cantu comes up and gets his AB's... Yipeeeee

But at this point he's cheap, and on a losing team plus has a .790 OPS vs LH's. Which is 3rd on the team for guys with more then 90 Ab's. (it's the 40% of his ab's vs RH's that hurts the most)

Meanwhile other RH hitters (who were supposed to be sure things) like EE Freel are tanking in the exact same situation.

edabbs44
08-06-2007, 03:40 PM
http://www.mlb4u.com/profile.php?id=967



+ the value of the option rises up to $8M based on the amount of performance bonuses earned in 2007

FWIW John Bale has been Moore's worst pitching pick up so far

Who cares if the value of the option rises to $8 million when it is followed by this quote?


if he exercises the option, the club may decline it

The option could be for $80 million, the club can still decline.

edabbs44
08-06-2007, 03:42 PM
I get the feeling that the desire for Eduardo Perez has more to do with his parentage than his performance. Jeff Conine is, and always has been, a better player than Eduardo Perez.

I find it interesting that many at RedsZone were upset that the Reds signed Conine instead of Perez or Craig Wilson, yet Conine is the only one who is still gainfully employed as a major-league baseball player.

(Personally, I wanted Wilson, but figured that he didn't want to come to Cincinnati, so I was OK with Conine as a second choice.)

Eduardo Perez has hit lefties well throughout his career.

Conine was brought in to be the short end of the righty/lefty platoon. I'd rather spend money elsewhere than on Conine.

flyer85
08-06-2007, 03:47 PM
seems like the "Lose Now" mode is going around.

westofyou
08-06-2007, 03:55 PM
Who cares if the value of the option rises to $8 million when it is followed by this quote?I guess that the Braves would care if they like what they see and they want to think about next year, the world isn't operated in a vacuum, if they want to exercise his option and the price goes from 5-8 it affects their budget. Thus they have to make a decision. They could end up losing Davies for a 1/2 year rental vs losing him for a guy at a 1 1/2 for 7.5 million or so... or worse yet he costs 8 million and they take it, and then he tanks next year... thus costing the Braves ten million or so bucks and a 23 year old pitcher.

Lots of things could happen when you start throwing in contract escalations and the such.

nate
08-06-2007, 03:56 PM
Eduardo Perez has hit lefties well throughout his career.

Conine was brought in to be the short end of the righty/lefty platoon. I'd rather spend money elsewhere than on Conine.

Interesting. Vs. LHP:

Perez: 850 ABs / .265 / .362 / .501
Conine: 1793 ABs / .301 / .372 / .485

RedsManRick
08-06-2007, 04:59 PM
Interesting. Vs. LHP:

Perez: 850 ABs / .265 / .362 / .501
Conine: 1793 ABs / .301 / .372 / .485

Conine has a job because the Reds gave him one, not because he deserves one because of his play on the field. Eduardo Perez has a job at ESPN instead of MLB because the White Sox didn't give him one and ESPN did. I don't know if he was set on retiring or not, but that's not really the point.

The righty half of a 1B platoon that costs you 2 minor leaguers, 2 million bucks, and still can't OPS over .750 isn't a very good investment. Last year, Conine hit .268/.325/.399. It's not like he's underperforming. He's just not a very good baseball player anymore, despite his young body and quick, short swing. Giving away prospects and money for perhaps the most replacable thing in baseball isn't very smart.

edabbs44
08-06-2007, 05:15 PM
I guess that the Braves would care if they like what they see and they want to think about next year, the world isn't operated in a vacuum, if they want to exercise his option and the price goes from 5-8 it affects their budget. Thus they have to make a decision. They could end up losing Davies for a 1/2 year rental vs losing him for a guy at a 1 1/2 for 7.5 million or so... or worse yet he costs 8 million and they take it, and then he tanks next year... thus costing the Braves ten million or so bucks and a 23 year old pitcher.

Lots of things could happen when you start throwing in contract escalations and the such.

Dotel could also be kidnapped and held for $5 million ransom and the kidnappers demand that the ransom money has to come from Atlanta. Then Wayne would have made a great no-offer.

RANDY IN INDY
08-06-2007, 05:15 PM
Yet he's been in the most trade rumors of the "Vets"

My guess is he's dealt by the end of the month and Cantu comes up and gets his AB's... Yipeeeee

But at this point he's cheap, and on a losing team plus has a .790 OPS vs LH's. Which is 3rd on the team for guys with more then 90 Ab's. (it's the 40% of his ab's vs RH's that hurts the most)

Meanwhile other RH hitters (who were supposed to be sure things) like EE Freel are tanking in the exact same situation.

Quit making so much sense.:beerme:

westofyou
08-06-2007, 05:20 PM
Dotel could also be kidnapped and held for $5 million ransom and the kidnappers demand that the ransom money has to come from Atlanta. Then Wayne would have made a great no-offer.

Or better yet he could just get a job on BBT and his stock will rise even more then it did when he played.

edabbs44
08-06-2007, 05:27 PM
Or better yet he could just get a job on BBT and his stock will rise even more then it did when he played.

When compared to the immortal Jeff Conine it is very difficult to look inferior, even if you are on TV.

Chip R
08-06-2007, 05:29 PM
Or better yet he could just get a job on BBT and his stock will rise even more then it did when he played.


Maybe we should have signed John Kruk. ;)

Red Leader
08-06-2007, 05:31 PM
Maybe we should have signed John Kruk. ;)

Nah, he's a lefty.

Orestes Destrade, he's a switch hitter.

Strikes Out Looking
08-06-2007, 05:33 PM
Uh, teams that have to decide between Eduardo Perez and Jeff Conine as 1/2 the 1b platoon do not usually play after October 3. I think the real question is where is Votto?

Johnny Footstool
08-06-2007, 05:41 PM
A .790 OPS vs. Lefties is pathetic for a right-handed platoon hitter. The fact that Conine's poor OPS is 3rd on the team says more about the team's lack of adequacy vs. lefties than about Conine's abilities.

mth123
08-06-2007, 09:16 PM
Conine has a job because the Reds gave him one, not because he deserves one because of his play on the field. Eduardo Perez has a job at ESPN instead of MLB because the White Sox didn't give him one and ESPN did. I don't know if he was set on retiring or not, but that's not really the point.

The righty half of a 1B platoon that costs you 2 minor leaguers, 2 million bucks, and still can't OPS over .750 isn't a very good investment. Last year, Conine hit .268/.325/.399. It's not like he's underperforming. He's just not a very good baseball player anymore, despite his young body and quick, short swing. Giving away prospects and money for perhaps the most replacable thing in baseball isn't very smart.

Bravo.

Watch out RMR. You've been posting informed and intelligent analysis all along and analyze these things as they occur, but surely some one will roll their eyes and call it hindsight.

BTW, I would not have signed Dotel and really wasn't sure who I would have spent any of the money on. I know for absolute certain that I wouldn't have spent a penny on Mike Stanton or Jeff Conine (or Kirk Saarloos). And yes I was in favor of pursuing Craig Wilson. I also suggested keeping Harris and giving him a shot at RH half of 1B and I suggested Josh Phelps, JR House, Jayson Werth and yes Eduardo Perez. I still would have preferred any as a better option than Jeff Conine. The Reds could simply have played Hatte full-time if these guys didn't work out.

Caveat Emperor
08-06-2007, 10:23 PM
A .790 OPS vs. Lefties is pathetic for a right-handed platoon hitter. The fact that Conine's poor OPS is 3rd on the team says more about the team's lack of adequacy vs. lefties than about Conine's abilities.

Yeah -- and if you look up a lot of the predictions, the guy who most people thought was an untouchable part of the Reds future, Edwin Encarnacion, is hitting a stellar .654 against LHP this season.

Which really just shows you how easy this game is to predict if you get selective about which prognostications you pat yourself on the back for.

edabbs44
08-06-2007, 10:26 PM
Yeah -- and if you look up a lot of the predictions, the guy who most people thought was an untouchable part of the Reds future, Edwin Encarnacion, is hitting a stellar .654 against LHP this season.

Which really just shows you how easy this game is to predict if you get selective about which prognostications you pat yourself on the back for.

The difference is that Edwin's best years are probably ahead of him. Conine's are definitely behind him. Since my hopes weren't too high for 2007, I have no problem with a player like EE getting some experience.

GAC
08-06-2007, 10:32 PM
Every young player is not an upgrade. Every young player is not worthy of several years of starting assignments in the major leagues to see if he will pan out. A good GM doesn't just conduct a tryout camp in the major leagues. He uses young players only when he thinks they are ready and can help.

The fact is that, for all the kudos the Reds farm teams have received lately, there aren't exactly dozens of youngsters who look to be true major league front line players. Bruce definitely. Bailey and Cueto, probably, although we saw Homer's lack of readiness. Votto, probably, although right now he wouldn't be an upgrade over Hatteberg -- who is older, but with a .400 OBP and over .300 average this year.

Any other kids ready to make a run at stardom in the big leagues? I don't see any. To me, the problem is that Krivsky seems reluctant to trade for more good prospects. Perhaps they just aren't being offered. Maloney, acquired from Philly, looks pretty good. But you have to assume that Krivsky was unable to pry guys like that away from other teams.

I think "win now" is just rhetoric. The future is with the prospects, but the Reds don't have boatloads of them like the Brewers did when they put their team together.

Good post Kc.

There is one statement you made that stood out to me....

"To me, the problem is that Krivsky seems reluctant to trade for more good prospects. Perhaps they just aren't being offered.'

If it's an issue of reluctancy, then I think it's far more on the part of the other teams (potential trading partners). woy, earlier this week, also made a statement that got my attention and which I wholeheartedly agree with.... that teams are hoarding their cheap, young talent. They are thinking twice, and are not so quick to part with it anymore. Especially when you're offering a Weathers, Conine, Hatteberg, or Stanton. Yeah, these teams may have an interest in them, and think they could help them in the second half; but not at the cost of some of their young talent. So they offer up very little in return.

We all think these guys should be gone, and for the obvious reasons. If we, as fans, can see that. Then why wouldn't those GMs who make that their primary job?

My "sticking point" with Krivsky, and why I have been apprehensive, at this short stage of his tenure, to be calling for his head, is that it centers around whether he can re-invigorate this farm system.

He has a daunting task. The "hole" we, as an organization, have dug for ourselves did not occur over night. It is not going to be corrected over night either. And if your mission (or objective) is to acquire as much young talent wherever you can, while at the same time teams are holding onto it, and not so eager to part with it, then that makes one's job even harder.

Krivsky has obviously made his mistakes, and taken risks. But for the most part, and IMHO, he's played it pretty safe in alot of the player acquisitions he has made. They have been low-risk, and not moves that will hamstring this organization for any longterm period. Conine for 1 yr @ 2 mil? If it doesn't work out, then he's gone. Same situation with some other guys.

It's not like we have given players multi-year contracts for large sums of guaranteed money, like we have done in the past with numerous players who then under achieve, end up injured, and we're stuck.

Don't get me wrong - I'm not happy with the Stantons and Co. either. But to Krivsky's credit - he hasn't given out an Milton, Casey, Graves, Larkin, and even Jr type contracts, which have not been beneficial for this team, and which we lumbered under for years.

REDREAD
08-06-2007, 10:37 PM
There are plenty of players who could have replaced Stanton and Cormier's production for a fraction of the cost. It is Wayne's job to maximize the production using the money he is allowed to spend. IMO, he did an awful job at that this past offseason.


Heck, I bet Shackleford would've been comparable to Stanton (maybe a little better or worse), and he wasn't even given a shot.

Not to mention, the idiocy of signing Stanton when you are already commited to another aging, fading LH reliever (Cormier).

Not cashing in Weathers, Hat, and Conine when teams were hot for them was a mistake as well.

I understand the Reds are going to have to backfill with vets for awhile, but it's also stupid to give out long term contracts to filler.. Stanton, Castro, Freel, etc.

RANDY IN INDY
08-06-2007, 10:40 PM
Nice post, GAC. I'm not happy with every move Krivsky has made, either, but I agree, his job is not an easy one and would be daunting for even the best GM. Lots of pressure and he will pay if he makes too many bad moves.

REDREAD
08-06-2007, 10:45 PM
And what would "full effort" be? Selling off everything for prospects and hoping some of them pan out in the next 2-3 years?
.

The right way would've been to take the money he spent on mediocrity this winter and spent it on players that would've made a difference, or at least would've been highly attractive to trade over the next few years.

Chad Bradford went for a little more than Stanton money (3 years/10 million), and would've given us the solid RH arm in the pen we desparately needed.

Lily or Dotel would've been better signings.

Instead, Wayne blows his money on Stanton and other yawners.
He also extends Freel when there was no need to -- no FA years were bought out, and how much "cost certainty" do you need on a 4th OF / utility man? Signing Castro to 2 years was another idiotic move.

Wayne flushed away money down the toilet which could've been spent much more prudently and actually increased the talent level of the team.

Ron Madden
08-07-2007, 03:24 AM
The difference is that Edwin's best years are probably ahead of him. Conine's are definitely behind him. Since my hopes weren't too high for 2007, I have no problem with a player like EE getting some experience.

I agree.

I thought EE was ready to bust loose this season. I was wrong.

I would still hit EE higher in the batting order than Conine, because there is more to gain long term.

GAC
08-07-2007, 10:05 AM
I would still hit EE higher in the batting order than Conine, because there is more to gain long term.

I sure would bat him higher then Hopper. EE currently has a .340 OB%. That could improve if he is positioned higher in the order and sees better pitches.