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texasdave
08-09-2007, 07:55 PM
Gardner on the mound for the Bats. After two innings Louisville leads 6 zip. Homers by Janish and Dickerson. Votto and Bruce both 1 for 1 (singles). Cantu has drawn a walk in his only trip.

Gardner 2 IP 1 H O ER 2 K

texasdave
08-09-2007, 07:56 PM
Chattanooga hasn't started yet. Fischer on the mound (3.61 ERA)

reds44
08-09-2007, 07:58 PM
Dickerson is 2-2 with a homer.

texasdave
08-09-2007, 07:58 PM
Manuel pitching for Sarasota. Rough start as they trail 3 - 0 going into the home half of the third. Valaika 1 for 1. His average is up to .250 after a very slow start. Szymanski 1 for 1 - a double.

Blue
08-09-2007, 08:05 PM
Cantu just continues to intrigue.

Janish hit a grand slam in the 2nd.

Redman15
08-09-2007, 08:24 PM
Stubbs homers 1-0 Dragons. Louwsma drilled with the next pitch. Quad Cities pitcher ejected.

Redman15
08-09-2007, 08:50 PM
Louisville leads 10-0. Janish and Herr have each hit Grand Slams.

zipcurve
08-09-2007, 09:13 PM
Carlos Fisher struggling tonight. Chattanooga leads 4-3. Carlos has walked 4 in 2 innings.

Blue
08-09-2007, 09:36 PM
Votto having a nice night. He's hitting line drives and taking counts deep.

Eric_Davis
08-09-2007, 09:46 PM
Herr with 7 RBI's. One Grand Slam. One 3-run Homer.

Louisville paying last night's drubbing.

Up on Indianapolis 16-1

Eric_Davis
08-09-2007, 09:53 PM
Coffey handled the demotion a lot better than Coutlangus.

2.1 IP, 1H, 0R, 0BB, 2K

Coffeybro
08-09-2007, 09:53 PM
Todd's Line for the night:

IP H R ER BB SO
2.1 1 0 0 0 2

And the biggest surprise in my mind.
AB R H RBI
1 1 1 1

First professional hit.

Eric_Davis
08-09-2007, 09:54 PM
Congratulations, Todd.

Eric_Davis
08-09-2007, 10:03 PM
Going into tonight,

Right-handers are hitting .341 w/ an ERA of 8.68 off of Bray.

Left-handers are hitting .133 with an ERA of 0.00.

Tonight, he got 3 right-handers out in a 1-2-3 ninth.

BigRed07
08-09-2007, 10:07 PM
Dragons lead 4-2 B6. Parker hits his 8th homer.

Redmachine2003
08-09-2007, 10:41 PM
What was the Box score of the Bats game. Milb is not working for me tonight.

KeyMastur
08-09-2007, 11:01 PM
Final 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R H E
Indy 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 4 1
Bats 1 5 0 4 0 0 6 0 X 16 16 1

Patrick Bateman
08-09-2007, 11:11 PM
Good game from Coffey. I have little doubt that Coffey can contine to dominate AAA like he has every time he's been domoted.

I really believe that most of his struggles have been due to how volatile relievers can be in 40 inning type of samples. His peripherals have shown just how unlucky he has been this season. He mostly just needs time.

I have hope that 10 days from now both Coffey and Bray will be where they belong.

BigRed07
08-09-2007, 11:12 PM
Dragons bullpen blows a 3 run lead in the bottom of the ninth. They give up 4 runs to lose 6-5.

Degenerate39
08-09-2007, 11:13 PM
Good game from Coffey. I have little doubt that Coffey can contine to dominate AAA like he has every time he's been domoted.

I really believe that most of his struggles have been due to how volatile relievers can be in 40 inning type of samples. His peripherals have shown just how unlucky he has been this season. He mostly just needs time.

I have hope that 10 days from now both Coffey and Bray will be where they belong.

I wish Coffey would dominate the Majors like he does AAA

Patrick Bateman
08-09-2007, 11:25 PM
I wish Coffey would dominate the Majors like he does AAA

As I said, much of his problems have been due to luck. The opposite has happened to Weathers. These things tend to even out. Considering the Reds ballpark and poor fielding, they will experience more bad luck on the pitching side.

The key is to seperate the luck from the skill level. I firmly believe Coffey's problems are mostly from luck, and over a small sample size like Coffey's and it's easy to see how it can happen. With average luck, I think Coffey could easily settle into being the pitcher he has was last seaosn.

IMO, there is nothing for Coffey to learn in AAA. He's shown what he can do there. He's one of the few pitchers the Reds have with any type of major league success. Thus Coffey needs to be given every chance possible to work out of his percieved problems. Perhaps the struggles continue, but it sure as hell beats watching the likes of Santos, Guardado, Stanton, etc.

Blue
08-09-2007, 11:29 PM
By my calculation, Cantu is sporting a .358/.393/.509 for an OPS of .902 since joining the Bats.

Blue
08-09-2007, 11:31 PM
A prospect that I think is about to shoot up the Top 100 lists is Rangers catcher Taylor Teagarden. He has battled back from Tommy John surgery and a back injury, and is starting to adjust to AA after putting up ridiculous OBP and SLG numbers at High-A. He has now homered in back to back games.

Kc61
08-10-2007, 12:08 AM
Good game from Coffey. I have little doubt that Coffey can contine to dominate AAA like he has every time he's been domoted.

I really believe that most of his struggles have been due to how volatile relievers can be in 40 inning type of samples. His peripherals have shown just how unlucky he has been this season. He mostly just needs time.

I have hope that 10 days from now both Coffey and Bray will be where they belong.

Coffey's ERA this year is 6.05. His home runs allowed rate has gone from 1 every 11 innings last year (7 in 78 innings) to 1 every 4 innings this year (11 in 44 innings). I agree that 44 innings is not a huge sample size, but to say Coffey's struggles this year is "bad luck" is, well, very debatable.

Patrick Bateman
08-10-2007, 01:12 AM
Coffey's ERA this year is 6.05. His home runs allowed rate has gone from 1 every 11 innings last year (7 in 78 innings) to 1 every 4 innings this year (11 in 44 innings). I agree that 44 innings is not a huge sample size, but to say Coffey's struggles this year is "bad luck" is, well, very debatable.

It's definitely a fair debate. I would be one of the few suggesting that his main struggles are attributable to luck.

But that's why he needs to be in the majors. We know what he can do in AAA. Can anyone honestly say 100% that Coffey's struggles are not due to mainly luck?

Why are guys like Santos on the roster right now, when the Reds could be trying to solve important questions that could be major factors in future seasons. The Reds need to see what they have with Coffey. 44 brutal innings isn't enough to make a judgement about a guy with past, relevant success. There is nothing to lose here.

Cedric
08-10-2007, 01:30 AM
It's definitely a fair debate. I would be one of the few suggesting that his main struggles are attributable to luck.

But that's why he needs to be in the majors. We know what he can do in AAA. Can anyone honestly say 100% that Coffey's struggles are not due to mainly luck?

Why are guys like Santos on the roster right now, when the Reds could be trying to solve important questions that could be major factors in future seasons. The Reds need to see what they have with Coffey. 44 brutal innings isn't enough to make a judgement about a guy with past, relevant success. There is nothing to lose here.

Todd Coffey has given up 230 hits in 180 MLB innings. He has a career whip at 1.60.

There is nothing unlucky about that. When you can't come within a foot of your intended spot you probably aren't going to have much BABIP luck. He's a perfect case example of why BABIP isn't just luck, IMO. When Coffey gives up hits they aren't of the cheap variety. They are absolute missles because they are right down the middle. I've watched countless Coffey innings on DVR and that is 100% fact. He's not getting bad luck.

I'd suggest that Todd Coffey always has a high BABIP for a reason. And sadly for the Reds and our payroll it aint luck.

Patrick Bateman
08-10-2007, 01:44 AM
Todd Coffey has given up 230 hits in 180 MLB innings. He has a career whip at 1.60.

There is nothing unlucky about that. When you can't come within a foot of your intended spot you probably aren't going to have much BABIP luck. He's a perfect case example of why BABIP isn't just luck, IMO. When Coffey gives up hits they aren't of the cheap variety. They are absolute missles because they are right down the middle. I've watched countless Coffey innings on DVR and that is 100% fact. He's not getting bad luck.

How did I know that you were going to disagree with this? ;)

You are right, his BAPIP for his career is a ridiculous .348, but his LD% is 20.6%. That's a little high, but pretty close to average. There are few examples of pitchers that have been able to control the destiny of line drives, whether good or bad, and Coffey is not an exception.

Especially this season his LD% is 16.0%, which is well below average. It is not fact that Coffey gives up blistering line drives at a monumental pace. Based on Coffey not really giving up many more line drives than the expected, I still see his unfortunate BAPIP as a combination of bad luck and bad defense.

If he continues to keep the liune drives to a minimum, the BAPIP will come down. It's as simple as that. Batted balls will find fielders eventually. A LD% of 16% does not go hand in hand with a .357 BAPIP. Considering his career to date is only 180 innings, it's easy to see how luck can deviate so easily.

I don't see the conclusive evidence you are talking about. There is nothing in Coffey's numbers that show a discernable skill that should be leading to an extra high BAPIP. The same goes for his HR/FB rate. Up until this season it was at a normal rate, until it exploded. Again, considering he gets plenty of grounballs, I don't see any kind of conclusive evidnece that suggests that he should be giving up nearly as many homers as he has.

I would bet good money that given time, both his BAPIP and HR/FB rate would reduce dramatically. I like Coffey. When I watch him I think he's a lot better then the results have been showing. Obviously we see things differently with Coffey, but I don't see the evidence that Coffey is going to be a major exception to stats that have been very accurate to date.

Cedric
08-10-2007, 01:49 AM
How did I know that you were going to disagree with this? ;)

You are right, his BAPIP for his career is a ridiculous .348, but his LD% is 20.6%. That's a little high, but pretty close to average. There are few examples of pitchers that have been able to control the destiny of line drives, whether good or bad, and Coffey is not an exception.

Especially this season his LD% is 16.0%, which is well below average. It is not fact that Coffey gives up blistering line drives at a monumental pace. Based on Coffey not really giving up many more line drives than the expected, I still see his unfortunate BAPIP as a combination of bad luck and bad defense.

If he continues to keep the liune drives to a minimum, the BAPIP will come down. It's as simple as that. Batted balls will find fielders eventually. A LD% of 16% does not go hand in hand with a .357 BAPIP. Considering his career to date is only 180 innings, it's easy to see how luck can deviate so easily.

I don't see the conclusive evidence you are talking about. There is nothing in Coffey's numbers that show a discernable skill that should be leading to an extra high BAPIP. The same goes for his HR/FB rate. Up until this season it was at a normal rate, until it exploded. Again, considering he gets plenty of grounballs, I don't see any kind of conclusive evidnece that suggests that he should be giving up nearly as many homers as he has.

I would bet good money that given time, both his BAPIP and HR/FB rate would reduce dramatically. I like Coffey. When I watch him I think he's a lot better then the results have been showing. Obviously we see things differently with Coffey, but I don't see the evidence that Coffey is going to be a major exception to stats that have been very accurate to date.

Sadly his babip has been very accurate :)

I see nothing in his game that suggests it will suddenly get better. The truly hittable pitchers have high BABIP. Why? Because they aren't very good at their craft. Nothing personal, just the game.

I'm having a case of deja vu though :)

BRM
08-10-2007, 10:12 AM
A buddy of mine who has season tickets to the Bats said White Sox GM Ken Williams was at the game last night. He sat right across the aisle from him. He said Williams left after the 5th inning.

camisadelgolf
08-10-2007, 11:13 AM
I'll be the first to defend Todd Coffey, but I'll also be the first to say that his failures aren't a result of bad luck. He may have had a higher BABIP than usual, but it's not high enough to explain the rest of his stats. I attribute it all on his confidence. I'd keep him at AAA and tell him to work on his offspeed stuff. And if I knew what I were talking about, I'd show him some video of his most successful outings.

texasdave
08-10-2007, 11:15 AM
Some numbers for Reds relievers (over 20 IP):



Reliever ERA DIPS K/9 K/BB WHIP HR/9
Weathers 3.28 3.30 5.77 2.73 1.09 0.47
Burton 3.68 4.21 7.77 1.19 1.50 0.41
Stanton 4.83 4.27 6.15 2.00 1.59 0.88
Salmon 3.92 4.43 7.84 2.25 1.26 1.31
Santos 4.50 4.48 7.63 1.95 1.41 1.37
Saarloos 7.03 4.50 5.98 1.45 1.73 0.76
Gosling 4.35 4.84 10.02 1.21 2.13 1.31
Coutlangus 3.91 4.91 7.85 1.28 1.53 0.74
Coffey 6.04 5.57 7.25 2.12 1.75 2.22


If you hold DIPS to be a more accurate measure of how a pitcher is pitching, it looks like Weathers and a whole lot of mediocrity (or worse). Comparing DIPS to ERA, Weathers has been neither lucky nor unlucky. Coffey has been slightly unlucky this year. He still has the worst DIPS of any reliever that has pitched any significant amount of innings for the Reds. DIPS-wise, looking at those numbers and ahead to 2008, there really is only one answer to the question 'How we looking?'. Not good.

Patrick Bateman
08-10-2007, 12:20 PM
I'll be the first to defend Todd Coffey, but I'll also be the first to say that his failures aren't a result of bad luck. He may have had a higher BABIP than usual, but it's not high enough to explain the rest of his stats. I attribute it all on his confidence. I'd keep him at AAA and tell him to work on his offspeed stuff. And if I knew what I were talking about, I'd show him some video of his most successful outings.

The main problem with Coffey is the HR/FB, and basically it is highest I have really seen over much of a sample. Needless to say, it's basically 100% guaranteed that it will decrease dramatically even if Coffey doesn't pitch any better. Same with the high BAPIP. There is definitely a lot of bad luck affecting Coffey's numbers.

Patrick Bateman
08-10-2007, 12:25 PM
If you hold DIPS to be a more accurate measure of how a pitcher is pitching, it looks like Weathers and a whole lot of mediocrity (or worse). Comparing DIPS to ERA, Weathers has been neither lucky nor unlucky. Coffey has been slightly unlucky this year. He still has the worst DIPS of any reliever that has pitched any significant amount of innings for the Reds. DIPS-wise, looking at those numbers and ahead to 2008, there really is only one answer to the question 'How we looking?'. Not good.

That's all true, but my main point is whether Coffey's massive HR rate is due to ineffectiveness, or mainly a factor of luck? remember, we are only talking about a 44 inning sample.

Maybe it's a combination of both, but coffey does have a very nice groundball rate, and the rest of his peripherals are within career norms. The only numbers that look really questionable are the HR/FB and BAPIP. Everything else makes Coffey look like a solid reliever. How likely is it that Coffey's BAPIP and HR/FB remain ridiculously high, while he still maintains decent peripheral numbers?

I'm not saying coffey is the answer to all our problems, but I think there is a very legitamite cahnce that Coffey can go back to being a slightly above average reliever. An asset in middle relief/set-up that the Reds don't currently have.

texasdave
08-10-2007, 01:46 PM
That's all true, but my main point is whether Coffey's massive HR rate is due to ineffectiveness, or mainly a factor of luck? remember, we are only talking about a 44 inning sample.

Maybe it's a combination of both, but coffey does have a very nice groundball rate, and the rest of his peripherals are within career norms. The only numbers that look really questionable are the HR/FB and BAPIP. Everything else makes Coffey look like a solid reliever. How likely is it that Coffey's BAPIP and HR/FB remain ridiculously high, while he still maintains decent peripheral numbers?

I'm not saying coffey is the answer to all our problems, but I think there is a very legitamite cahnce that Coffey can go back to being a slightly above average reliever. An asset in middle relief/set-up that the Reds don't currently have.

I hope you are right, because the Reds need all the relief help they can get.

Mario-Rijo
08-10-2007, 05:07 PM
I'll be the first to defend Todd Coffey, but I'll also be the first to say that his failures aren't a result of bad luck. He may have had a higher BABIP than usual, but it's not high enough to explain the rest of his stats. I attribute it all on his confidence. I'd keep him at AAA and tell him to work on his offspeed stuff. And if I knew what I were talking about, I'd show him some video of his most successful outings.

I think this is very accurate. For whatever reason he has not had the confidence in his off-speed/breaking stuff. he is throwing an awful lot of FB's and when the opposition is looking FB and get's it well then you get the end result he has been getting. Which would marry itself to having a high amount of balls hammered be it on the ground or in the air.

I would ask Cedric if he could go back and look at the DVR again and see if he can tell how many of those pitches that were getting drilled were anything but FB's. And how often guys seemingly were just sitting on a FB and letting everything else go by. And just how little Todd was actually throwing anything but FB's.

I could be wrong but that's what I think has been the culprit.

BTW CoffeyBro, am I seeing that right? Did Todd get a HR or was just fortunate enough to get a RBI and be driven in? Either way congrats to him! And also congrats on having such a good outing.

Eric_Davis
08-10-2007, 05:15 PM
Cedric, I agree more with what one sees with their eyes than with what a stat says about a player. I'll trust more with what you're seeing than with what a DIPS or BIPS states.

The scouts and management of the REDS trust their eyes. Why shouldn't we? Maybe because we don't see them "IN PERSON" every day like they do, so we don't have anything else to go by so we use what we've got...the DIPS and BIPS, etc.

The problem with Coffey has got to be between the ears. It has to be in his head. He has way too many innings pitched in both AAA and the Majors for it to be luck, or lack of it. Everyone agrees he has "the stuff", so the only thing left is mental maturity or baseball maturity, whatever you want to call it.

That's what always separates one level of professional worker from another,....how they handle tougher pressure, and Coffey's not handling the pressure of the Major Leagues right now. Brantley bluntly called it choking, but to put it nicer, Coffey's not handling the pressure of pitching in the Big Leagues right now. It's an edge that constantly has to be retained every day. Why do you think veterans say to young players who are in a groove, "Don't think about it"?

Coffeybro
08-10-2007, 08:27 PM
BTW CoffeyBro, am I seeing that right? Did Todd get a HR or was just fortunate enough to get a RBI and be driven in? Either way congrats to him! And also congrats on having such a good outing.

He got a base hit with runners on 2nd and 3rd with one out. The pitch was a hanging slider by the looks of it. He then went on to score from second after a walk, an out, then base hit.

Mario-Rijo
08-10-2007, 08:29 PM
He got a base hit with runners on 2nd and 3rd with one out. The pitch was a hanging slider by the looks of it. He then went on to score from second after a walk, an out, then base hit.

Sweet, that's gotta make a guy feel a little better! :thumbup:

Coffeybro
08-10-2007, 08:30 PM
Almost forgot, FYI Krivsky was at the Bats game last night.

Mario-Rijo
08-10-2007, 08:38 PM
Almost forgot, FYI Krivsky was at the Bats game last night.

WK and Ken Williams huh? Humm...maybe something is up. Williams was said to leave after/around the 5th. Hmmm could be something, could be nothing. Hopefully he wasn't looking too hard at pitching it wasn't a good night for that.

Oops disregard I was thinking of Wednesday's game.

BTW Dickerson Played LF last night and tore it up, this is in response to the next post by ED!

Eric_Davis
08-10-2007, 09:00 PM
WK and Ken Williams huh? Humm...maybe something is up. Williams was said to leave after/around the 5th. Hmmm could be something, could be nothing. Hopefully he wasn't looking too hard at pitching it wasn't a good night for that.


ESPN reported that Scott Podsednick was claimed by the CUBS, so the White Sox have 2 days to trade him to the CUBS, pull back the waiver, or let him go.