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View Full Version : Do you really want Jay Bruce sitting on the bench next year, or even the year after?



Eric_Davis
08-09-2007, 10:24 PM
Then why would you want Dunn on the team?

Hamilton is your starter in Center the next 2 years if Dunn is on the team.

Griffey is your starter in Right and he's not going anywhere the next two years.

Why would you want to pay $13M more next year for Dunn when you can get almost equal play from Bruce.

$13M is much more wisely spent.

....and to suggest that Bruce would be the 4th outfielder is a good way to ruin a Bruce's career. The Mariner's did it last year with Adam Jones, and they're doing it again this year with him.

Now, I could see Dunn playing the first half of the year with the REDS, so they could take the time to trade him, and Bruce could stay in AAA for the first half of the year playing every day, but he's going to have to start for the REDS eventually, and that means taking Dunn's spot, not Hamilton's or Griffey's.

Griffey puts people in the seats. Dunn doesn't.

$13M could be much better spent, and I doubt if John Allen will allow it to be wasted on the difference between Bruce and Dunn.

kaldaniels
08-09-2007, 10:29 PM
Then why would you want Dunn on the team?

Hamilton is your starter in Center the next 2 years if Dunn is on the team.

Griffey is your starter in Right and he's not going anywhere the next two years.

Why would you want to pay $13M more next year for Dunn when you can get almost equal play from Bruce.

$13M is much more wisely spent.

....and to suggest that Bruce would be the 4th outfielder is a good way to ruin a Bruce's career. The Mariner's did it last year with Adam Jones, and they're doing it again this year with him.

Now, I could see Dunn playing the first half of the year with the REDS, so they could take the time to trade him, and Bruce could stay in AAA for the first half of the year playing every day, but he's going to have to start for the REDS eventually, and that means taking Dunn's spot, not Hamilton's or Griffey's.

Griffey puts people in the seats. Dunn doesn't.

$13M could be much better spent, and I doubt if John Allen will allow it to be wasted on the difference between Bruce and Dunn.

One thing...you have Jr. and Hamilton penciled in as OF next year. What are some objective odds that both are healthy a whole year.

If it plays out perfectly, you have a good point. But, a betting man would say the 4th OF for the Reds will be very important player next year.

Blue
08-09-2007, 10:30 PM
Well, you could always try him at 1B again.

Also, I don't think its a forgone conclusion that Griffey will be here the next two years.

And, I'm not sure you can find better value in a free agent than $13 million for Dunn.

KronoRed
08-09-2007, 10:43 PM
Griffey is your starter in Right and he's not going anywhere the next two years.


No he's gone after 2008, and expecting Hamilton and JR to stay healthy all next year is asking for trouble.

Eric_Davis
08-09-2007, 10:58 PM
No he's gone after 2009, and expecting Hamilton and JR to stay healthy all next year is asking for trouble.

That's what I said. Griffey is the starter the next 2 years, 2008 and 2009. Why would you trade Griffey, when no one's going to give up much for him. and he'll be heading past Willie Mays in 2009? ...and if you've had him as a RED for that long, then why not keep him for 2010 as he heads towards #700? Griffey puts people in the stands.

Why would you have Bruce sitting on the bench with spot starts, pinch-hits, and defensive replacement and waiting for someone to get hurt? They have that in Hopper and Votto (not the defense).

I don't see Hamilton getting hurt next year. I expected it this year as it was his first full year back, but I expect him to not see the DL next year at all. A healthy Junior will still miss 25 games, but that time can be adequately subbed by Hopper, not Bruce.

KronoRed
08-09-2007, 11:10 PM
My mistake, JR is actually gone after 2008, the Reds won't pick up the 2009 option.

And really if Dunn isn't here the Reds will just go out and get a Hat/Conine OF type of guy, they certainly won't just give Bruce the job.

Blue
08-09-2007, 11:20 PM
Griffey is my favorite player, but I don't think he is exclusively responsible for many ticket sales. I guess we could look at pre-Griffey numbers for proof.

dougdirt
08-09-2007, 11:41 PM
Firstly, Jay Bruce won't be called up to sit on the bench. If he isn't going to be starting, he will be playing in Louisville.

Secondly, I have a good feeling Dunn or Griffey one will not be on the Reds next season. I also wouldn't be playing Hamilton in CF over Jay Bruce when that time comes that they are both in the OF.

John Allen spends none of the Reds money on players. So I have no clue what you are talking about with the whole he wont allow them to do this or that....

reds44
08-09-2007, 11:50 PM
Or you could trade Griffey and have an outfield of Dunn/Bruce/Hamilton. Griffey's last year will be next year, so you could just trade him in the offseason.

Or is that too easy?

Hamilton
Phillips
Dunn
Bruce
Edwin
Votto
Gonzalez
Ross

Winner.

toledodan
08-10-2007, 12:29 AM
griffey will be a red as long as he wants to be a red. i wouldn't be shocked to see them pick up his option for 2009.

Eric_Davis
08-10-2007, 12:32 AM
Firstly, Jay Bruce won't be called up to sit on the bench. If he isn't going to be starting, he will be playing in Louisville.

Secondly, I have a good feeling Dunn or Griffey one will not be on the Reds next season. I also wouldn't be playing Hamilton in CF over Jay Bruce when that time comes that they are both in the OF.

John Allen spends none of the Reds money on players. So I have no clue what you are talking about with the whole he wont allow them to do this or that....

With a decision regarding $13M, John Allen has a major influence in the decision.

camisadelgolf
08-10-2007, 12:32 AM
I'd be shocked to see the Reds pick up Griffey's option, but I wouldn't be shocked to see them work out a two- or three-year extension that incorporates the 2009 buyout as part of his lowered salary.

Screwball
08-10-2007, 12:36 AM
Or you could trade Griffey and have an outfield of Dunn/Bruce/Hamilton. Griffey's last year will be next year, so you could just trade him in the offseason.

Or is that too easy?

Hamilton
Phillips
Dunn
Bruce
Edwin
Votto
Gonzalez
Ross

Winner.

I like it, although Bruce batting cleanup already is a bit premature.

AmarilloRed
08-10-2007, 01:01 AM
We have an option for Dunn in 2008. We have Griffey for 2008 and an option for 2009. So, we could easily have 2 open spots in the outfield after 2008. I would think Bruce would fill one of the starting outfield spots, but I am unsure who would start in the third outfield spot. I created a thread on this subject earlier.

KronoRed
08-10-2007, 01:19 AM
I'd be shocked to see the Reds pick up Griffey's option, but I wouldn't be shocked to see them work out a two- or three-year extension that incorporates the 2009 buyout as part of his lowered salary.

JR is my favortie player but I want no part of him being on the Reds past next year, he should go back to Seattle or to a team that might have an actual shot at a title.

dougdirt
08-10-2007, 01:41 AM
With a decision regarding $13M, John Allen has a major influence in the decision.

Not a chance. Wayne Krivsky is told hey, you have this much money to spend on payroll this year. Spend it wisely. Waynes job is to figure out where to spend that money at. John Allen has no say in it, and if he does, then the Reds are completely screwed anyways and we all might as well just stop posting on redszone.

Benihana
08-10-2007, 09:13 AM
I like it, although Bruce batting cleanup already is a bit premature.

I believe Bruce is the quintessential #3 hitter.

Steve4192
08-10-2007, 09:25 AM
Why would you want to pay $13M more next year for Dunn when you can get almost equal play from Bruce.



Hamilton
Phillips
Dunn
Bruce


I like Jay Bruce as much as anybody, but you guys are getting WAY ahead of yourselves. MLB history is loaded with guys who were fantastic prospects who either flopped completely or never quite lived up to their billing in the majors. Even those who did live up to the hype often took two or three years to get acclimated before reaching their potential.

For every guy like Albert Pujols who completely lived up to the hype, I can name two guys like Billy Ashley who were total flops or ten guys like Pete Incaviglia who were solid players but never lived up to expectations. Heck, just look at the career of the guy who you want to jettison. Adam Dunn was a 300+ hitter in the minors and hit 330+ in the upper minors.

To claim Jay Bruce will step right into the Reds lineup and immediately bat cleanup and provide the same kind of production as Dunn is foolhardy.

Redsland
08-10-2007, 11:10 AM
To claim Jay Bruce will step right into the Reds lineup and immediately bat cleanup and provide the same kind of production as Dunn is foolhardy.
Yup.

Plus, even if next year's outfield consists of Dunn, Griffey,and Hamilton, there will be plenty of ABs available for Bruce, given the age and injury history of Griffey, and the apparent brittleness of Hamilton. It's not like the kid will rot on the bench.

camisadelgolf
08-10-2007, 11:10 AM
JR is my favortie player but I want no part of him being on the Reds past next year, he should go back to Seattle or to a team that might have an actual shot at a title.

Griffey came to Cincinnati for a reason, and if both Griffey and the Reds have success in 2008, I don't think it's unrealistic to see him stay a couple more years to help groom Bruce. I think it would help add to Griffey's legacy if he became more of a part-time player late in his career.

M2
08-10-2007, 12:19 PM
Bruce vs. Dunn? What a perfectly silly false choice that is.

First off, this notion that Josh Hamilton is a given is based on what? His long track record of success? His good health? I'm not saying Hamilton can't or won't be a decent player, but he might be nothing more than a 4th OF or a platoon player (and there's nothing wrong with that). I know this much, I've seen enough of Hamilton to not want him as a regular CF. He's fine as a backup option in CF, but I want more range than he's got out there. If Hamilton's going to be a regular, I'd want him in an OF corner.

And then there's Jr. Given the Reds' pathetic attendance I think it's fair to say that no one on the roster puts fannies in seats. Jr. is the oldest player in the Reds' OF and historically the most fragile of the bunch. If you're looking to open a slot for Jay Bruce, then Jr.'s the guy who ought to go. You don't rebuild around guys in their late 30s.

As for Dunn's option, if the Reds don't pick it up, then there's really no reason to view them as a viable major league franchise. Seriously, major league franchises don't release players like Dunn over piddly $3M raises. I don't advocate the Reds embrace futility.

dougdirt
08-10-2007, 12:39 PM
As for Dunn's option, if the Reds don't pick it up, then there's really no reason to view them as a viable major league franchise. Seriously, major league franchises don't release players like Dunn over piddly $3M raises. I don't advocate the Reds embrace futility.

If the Reds don't pick up his option I don't think it will be due to his raise, but more due to the fact that morons run this team. I don't think Dunn is a good fit for this team, especially based off of what the team is trying to be built around, but there is no way they can't choose to not use his option.

5DOLLAR-BLEACHERBUM
08-10-2007, 01:17 PM
Yup.

Plus, even if next year's outfield consists of Dunn, Griffey,and Hamilton, there will be plenty of ABs available for Bruce, given the age and injury history of Griffey, and the apparent brittleness of Hamilton. It's not like the kid will rot on the bench.
I've seen mention of this a couple of times here and I have to interject. The notion that Hamilton is brittle IMO is as false as anything I have read on here lately. What would you expect from a guy who has been out of the game as much as Hamilton has. I don't think brittle has anything to do with it. I kind of compare it to when us non professional athletes use muscles that we havn't used for a while. I remember the first time I rode a bike in like 8 years, I had pain in spots I didn't know were there. I'm sure Josh had been swinging the bat during alot of his time away from the game but the riggers of everyday in the majors are something that is impossible to duplicate in even the most intense training program. It's a wrist sprain, it could have happened to anyone and if Derek Jeter had the same injury tomorrow we wouldn't call him brittle and he hasn't been away from the game as Hamilton has. This kid is going to be something special, and I refuse to tag him as injury prone after a fluke injury like this. Maybe he will prove me wrong but I hope not because as far as putting my butt in the seats of gabp, there's nobody like Josh Hamilton.

AmarilloRed
08-10-2007, 01:23 PM
One point we should all realize is that Jay Bruce is not on the 40-man roster. Until he is put on that roster, he will be unable to be called up to Cincinnati. The Reds will have to put him on the 40-man roster before we will see him in Cincinnati.

KronoRed
08-10-2007, 01:28 PM
Griffey came to Cincinnati for a reason, and if both Griffey and the Reds have success in 2008, I don't think it's unrealistic to see him stay a couple more years to help groom Bruce. I think it would help add to Griffey's legacy if he became more of a part-time player late in his career.

If Bruce is all that he's cracked up to be then he won't need that much grooming, I know JR came here to win but that's not happening anytime soon, this team needs major help, him going back to Seattle, the team he's going into the HOF with would be more of a story book ending to his career IMO

Patrick Bateman
08-10-2007, 01:28 PM
One point we should all realize is that Jay Bruce is not on the 40-man roster. Until he is put on that roster, he will be unable to be called up to Cincinnati. The Reds will have to put him on the 40-man roster before we will see him in Cincinnati.

If and when the reds want to call up Bruce, it will not be difficult to find a spot on the 40 man roster.

If he replaces a guy like Jason Ellison, they can simply remove him from the 40 man roster and get him off the team. Finding a 40 man roster spot will not be a hinderance in getting Bruce a spot on the Reds.

Eric_Davis
08-10-2007, 02:36 PM
Not a chance. Wayne Krivsky is told hey, you have this much money to spend on payroll this year. Spend it wisely. Waynes job is to figure out where to spend that money at. John Allen has no say in it, and if he does, then the Reds are completely screwed anyways and we all might as well just stop posting on redszone.


The reason I believe that Allen has a lot of influence on decisions, is that it doesn't make any sense to acquire Brendan Harris in a trade, a player with the ability to step in immediately and help the team, only to turn around six months later and obtain cash for him.

If that was Krivsky's decision, and not influenced heavily by John Allen, then it reveals a black hole in Krivsky's ability to judge talent.

Not that he's any different than any other G.M. They all make bad decisions every year....every single one of them.

dougdirt
08-10-2007, 02:40 PM
I think you are reading way too into the Harris deal. If John Allen had any influence on the decisions, I think he would have suggested a move of a player not making the league minimum.

flyer85
08-10-2007, 02:56 PM
counting on Hamilton will likely be a huge mistake, Jr as well. If they are in a complete rebuilding mode then by all means.

Redsland
08-10-2007, 03:07 PM
The notion that Hamilton is brittle IMO is as false as anything I have read on here lately.
He's missed 50 games. He's been on the DL twice. He sprained his wrist swinging a bat.

Josh Hamilton is a great story, and he's performed well when he's been on the field, but the guy has a tough time staying healthy.

Eric_Davis
08-10-2007, 03:09 PM
Bruce vs. Dunn? What a perfectly silly false choice that is.

First off, this notion that Josh Hamilton is a given is based on what? His long track record of success? His good health? I'm not saying Hamilton can't or won't be a decent player, but he might be nothing more than a 4th OF or a platoon player (and there's nothing wrong with that). I know this much, I've seen enough of Hamilton to not want him as a regular CF. He's fine as a backup option in CF, but I want more range than he's got out there. If Hamilton's going to be a regular, I'd want him in an OF corner.

And then there's Jr. Given the Reds' pathetic attendance I think it's fair to say that no one on the roster puts fannies in seats. Jr. is the oldest player in the Reds' OF and historically the most fragile of the bunch. If you're looking to open a slot for Jay Bruce, then Jr.'s the guy who ought to go. You don't rebuild around guys in their late 30s.

As for Dunn's option, if the Reds don't pick it up, then there's really no reason to view them as a viable major league franchise. Seriously, major league franchises don't release players like Dunn over piddly $3M raises. I don't advocate the Reds embrace futility.

Hamilton's proved himself. An OPS of 1.156 OPS in AAA this year. It's just batting practice down there for him, though his defense needs a lot of practice. He should play Winter Ball to work on his defense, and not see himself as a polished player. Hamilton has also proved himself at the Major League level to be nothing less than a starter every day. Name another RED who had an OPS of .950+ their rookie year with at least 250 at-bats. Hamilton is much more than the REDS ever hoped he'd be.

You say you don't want to see Hamilton as your Center Fielder. Then why would you want Dunn on the team because Hamilton will play CF if Dunn is on this team? Griffey's not going anywhere next year and probably not the year after that.

The only way to get Hamilton out of CF is to get Dunn out of Cincinnati. Bruce will be the CF by sometime in June of next year if his current .947 OPS holds up in AAA.

Junior may not cause you to attend a game, but he causes others to attend a game. He's worth a huge dollar amount to the franchise both in credibility, marketing value, and attendance. People love to see Ken Griffey, Jr. play baseball, and he's playing fantastic this year. An exceptional human being who has several good years left in him.

You're trying to justify signing Dunn because it's only a $3M raise. Actually it's only a $2M raise. $13M - $10.5M - $.5M option buyout they don't have to pick up. But, it could be up to a $5M raise as bonuses kick in for 2008 that could push his deal to $16M.

But the ONLY'S don't stop there. In 2007, it was ONLY a $3M raise ($10.5M - $7.5M). In 2006, it was ONLY a $2.9M raise ($7.5M - $4.6M). In 2005, it was ONLY a $4.155M raise ($4.6M - $.445M).

So, for Dunn, he's had raises in the last three years of $3M, $2.9M, and $4.155M, and you want to give him another $2M - $5M when you have a guy who could step in and replace him adequately, superiorly on defense improving the pitching staff overall, much better hitting in the clutch, a legitimate #4 hitter (though as you pointed out, Dunn was always used wrong and I agree with you as he should have batted in the #2 hole and he would have been a 120 run scorer, hit for much better average for many reasons, and still gotten his 100 RBI's every year), hit for a higher average, but hit for less power.

Bruce won't be as good as Dunn next year overall, but Bruce will certainly be good enough to justify saving $13M-$16M.

No G.M. worth a grain of salt with the situation he has with the REDS would keep Dunn through the end of 2008 without a diehard attempt to trade him by the end of June so Bruce could take his place.

Your way would guarantee to keep the seats empty in the GAB as the REDS would have not enough monies to spend on pitching ensuring the club to flounder in the bottom half of the standings in the National League.

Eric_Davis
08-10-2007, 03:13 PM
I've seen mention of this a couple of times here and I have to interject. The notion that Hamilton is brittle IMO is as false as anything I have read on here lately. What would you expect from a guy who has been out of the game as much as Hamilton has. I don't think brittle has anything to do with it. I kind of compare it to when us non professional athletes use muscles that we havn't used for a while. I remember the first time I rode a bike in like 8 years, I had pain in spots I didn't know were there. I'm sure Josh had been swinging the bat during alot of his time away from the game but the riggers of everyday in the majors are something that is impossible to duplicate in even the most intense training program. It's a wrist sprain, it could have happened to anyone and if Derek Jeter had the same injury tomorrow we wouldn't call him brittle and he hasn't been away from the game as Hamilton has. This kid is going to be something special, and I refuse to tag him as injury prone after a fluke injury like this. Maybe he will prove me wrong but I hope not because as far as putting my butt in the seats of gabp, there's nobody like Josh Hamilton.

Of course that's what it is, and it's also the reason for his eratic fielding which wasn't an issue when he was younger. To suggest anything else, especially words like brittle or injury-prone is ludicrous and void of medical verification.

Eric_Davis
08-10-2007, 03:16 PM
He's missed 50 games. He's been on the DL twice. He sprained his wrist swinging a bat.

Josh Hamilton is a great story, and he's performed well when he's been on the field, but the guy has a tough time staying healthy.


As would anyone who didn't play the game for as long as he did. That stuff will go away.

Injuries happen every spring to 100's of players, and they've only been out of the game for 4 or 5 months. Multiply that by 10 and you'll get some injuries, especially with the every day grind that MLB players go through.

He should play Winter Ball, work some more on his defense and rustiness, then take a couple of months off, and be ready for an even better year in 2008.

dougdirt
08-10-2007, 03:18 PM
Hamilton couldnt stay healthy when he was young and in the minors either. I don't know if it is just coincidence or what, but he doesn't have any type of healthy track record.

Eric_Davis
08-10-2007, 03:19 PM
If the Reds don't pick up his option I don't think it will be due to his raise, but more due to the fact that morons run this team. I don't think Dunn is a good fit for this team, especially based off of what the team is trying to be built around, but there is no way they can't choose to not use his option.


You mentioned another mistake of Wayne's involving the same player, Harris. Castro was the guy to move, but they wouldn't have gotten anything for him. They still would owe him the money, but he should have been released. I would have taken a box of baseballs for him, or a 16-year old International player...any body if someone was willing. I don't understand this love for Castro.

M2
08-10-2007, 03:21 PM
Hamilton couldnt stay healthy when he was young and in the minors either. I don't know if it is just coincidence or what, but he doesn't have any type of healthy track record.

Exactly.

BRM
08-10-2007, 03:22 PM
Name another RED who had an OPS of .950+ their rookie year with at least 250 at-bats.


Well, Hamilton doesn't meet that criteria so I'm not sure you bring that up. He'll probably hit the 250 at-bat mark but his OPS is at .914.

Adam Dunn was very close in 2001. He had 244 at-bats with a .949 OPS.

Eric_Davis
08-10-2007, 03:28 PM
Hamilton couldnt stay healthy when he was young and in the minors either. I don't know if it is just coincidence or what, but he doesn't have any type of healthy track record.


That was drugs. You can't do drugs, the drugs he did, and do anything on a daily basis.

I've literally seen 1000's and 1000's of people turn their life around like Hamilton seems to have done, and there's no reason to believe that what happened in the past is indicative of what will happen in the future.

dougdirt
08-10-2007, 03:30 PM
That was drugs. You can't do drugs, the drugs he did, and do anything on a daily basis.

I've literally seen 1000's and 1000's of people turn their life around like Hamilton seems to have done, and there's no reason to believe that what happened in the past is indicative of what will happen in the future.

No. Before that.

Eric_Davis
08-10-2007, 03:33 PM
Well, Hamilton doesn't meet that criteria so I'm not sure you bring that up. He'll probably hit the 250 at-bat mark but his OPS is at .914.

Adam Dunn was very close in 2001. He had 244 at-bats with a .949 OPS.


You should add the joke icon smilies when you say that stuff so people know that you're kidding.

Hamilton has 208 at-bats with an OPS of .920. He'll be called up within a week and surpass 300 at-bats by the time the season's over, and his OPS will probably hover around .930-950. Most players coming off the DL start off hot. I'm sure he will, too.

Thus, proving my point, the only player you could come up with that had similar numbers is the one and only Adam Dunn.

Eric_Davis
08-10-2007, 03:35 PM
No. Before that.

You don't think he was doing heavy drugs in High School? Of course he was. As with most addicts, he was probably doing drugs before he entered High School, especially the white middle-class kids who are the worst abusers of drugs.

dougdirt
08-10-2007, 03:36 PM
You don't think he was doing heavy drugs in High School? Of course he was. As with most addicts, he was probably doing drugs before he entered High School, especially the white middle-class kids who are the worst abusers of drugs.

Apparently you have never listened to Josh talk about what got him on drugs. He did not use drugs until he was well into the minor leagues.

BRM
08-10-2007, 03:37 PM
You should add the joke icon smilies when you say that stuff so people know that you're kidding.

Hamilton has 208 at-bats with an OPS of .920. He'll be called up within a week and surpass 300 at-bats by the time the season's over, and his OPS will probably hover around .930-950. Most players coming off the DL start off hot. I'm sure he will, too.

Thus, proving my point, the only player you could come up with that had similar numbers is the one and only Adam Dunn.

I really don't understand why you talk to people like that. Condescending tones don't really help things.

Where are you getting Hamilton's stats from? Baseball Reference and ESPN both have him at 208 at-bats with a .914 OPS. I agree that his OPS may improve towards .950 by season's end but it could also drop. We'll find out when the season is over.

Eric_Davis
08-10-2007, 03:42 PM
I really don't understand why you talk to people like that. Condescending tones don't really help things.

Where are you getting Hamilton's stats from? Baseball Reference and ESPN both have him at 208 at-bats with a .914 OPS. I agree that his OPS may improve towards .950 by season's end but it could also drop. We'll find out when the season is over.

I apologize for sounding condescending. I didn't realize I was doing that. Thanks for pointing that out and I'll try to reword things so they don't come out that way.

That .914 OPS is currently 4 points higher than Dunn's .910 OPS.

I can't see how anyone can find fault in a guy who's accomplishing that.

dougdirt
08-10-2007, 03:42 PM
I apologize for sounding condescending. I didn't realize I was doing that. Thanks for pointing that out and I'll try to reword things so they don't come out that way.

That .914 OPS is currently 4 points higher than Dunn's .910 OPS.

I can't see how anyone can find fault in a guy who's accomplishing that.

Im not sure anyone is finding faults in what he is doing on the field.... its the questioning of counting on him to remain on the field.

BRM
08-10-2007, 03:44 PM
I apologize for sounding condescending. I didn't realize I was doing that. Thanks for pointing that out and I'll try to reword things so they don't come out that way.

That .914 OPS is currently 4 points higher than Dunn's .910 OPS.

I can't see how anyone can find fault in a guy who's accomplishing that.

My apologies as well. I may have misread your post.

I don't fault what Josh is doing either. He's had a heck of a rookie season when he's been healthy. I'm with Doug and M2 though for next year. I pencil him in for sure but I certainly won't be counting on 150 games from him. The team will need a quality 4th and probably 5th outfielder on hand if Hamilton and Junior are both starting.

Redsland
08-10-2007, 03:49 PM
He should play Winter Ball, work some more on his defense and rustiness, then take a couple of months off, and be ready for an even better year in 2008.
The problem with that plan is the fact that winter ball ends about two weeks before pitchers and catchers report for spring training, so you can't play winter ball and "take a couple of months off." It's got to be one or the other.

M2
08-10-2007, 03:50 PM
Hamilton's proved himself. An OPS of 1.156 OPS in AAA this year. It's just batting practice down there for him, though his defense needs a lot of practice. He should play Winter Ball to work on his defense, and not see himself as a polished player. Hamilton has also proved himself at the Major League level to be nothing less than a starter every day. Name another RED who had an OPS of .950+ their rookie year with at least 250 at-bats. Hamilton is much more than the REDS ever hoped he'd be.

Short memory you've got. Austin Kearns had a .950 OPS through his first 500 ABs. And when I suggested the Reds deal him back then I was told I was craaaayyyyzzzzeeee.

dougdirt already noted that Hamilton's always been fragile.


You say you don't want to see Hamilton as your Center Fielder. Then why would you want Dunn on the team because Hamilton will play CF if Dunn is on this team? Griffey's not going anywhere next year and probably not the year after that.

Funny, I don't think your say so means squat when it comes to whether Jr. will be traded. I'm not saying he will or he won't, but he certainly can be and, IMO, he should be.

I'm also cool with Hamilton on the bench. Got zero problems with that. That's where he's been when Dunn, Freel and Jr. have all been healthy.


The only way to get Hamilton out of CF is to get Dunn out of Cincinnati. Bruce will be the CF by sometime in June of next year if his current .947 OPS holds up in AAA.

It's a lot easier than that to get Hamilton out of CF. In fact it's as simple as playing someone else there. Adam Dunn plays LF and could continue to do regardless of who gets stationed in CF.


Junior may not cause you to attend a game, but he causes others to attend a game.

Are these invisible people? Because the Reds attendance sucks.


He's worth a huge dollar amount to the franchise both in credibility, marketing value, and attendance.

You mean the credibility and marketing value of seven straight losing seasons? And the chronically low attendance despite the new ballpark?


People love to see Ken Griffey, Jr. play baseball, and he's playing fantastic this year. An exceptional human being who has several good years left in him.

I like Jr. just fine, but I know better than to insist he's some sort of talisman when the attendance is so low and his time in town has coincided with the franchise's worst run in modern history.


You're trying to justify signing Dunn because it's only a $3M raise. Actually it's only a $2M raise. $13M - $10.5M - $.5M option buyout they don't have to pick up. But, it could be up to a $5M raise as bonuses kick in for 2008 that could push his deal to $16M.

If Dunn wins the MVP, I'd happily pay the extra freight.


But the ONLY'S don't stop there. In 2007, it was ONLY a $3M raise ($10.5M - $7.5M). In 2006, it was ONLY a $2.9M raise ($7.5M - $4.6M). In 2005, it was ONLY a $4.155M raise ($4.6M - $.445M).

So, for Dunn, he's had raises in the last three years of $3M, $2.9M, and $4.155M, and you want to give him another $2M - $5M

Golly it's almost like he keeps playing well and earning these raises. Man, I hate that. Why can't he suck and be cheaper?


when you have a guy who could step in and replace him adequately, superiorly on defense improving the pitching staff overall, much better hitting in the clutch, a legitimate #4 hitter (though as you pointed out, Dunn was always used wrong and I agree with you as he should have batted in the #2 hole and he would have been a 120 run scorer, hit for much better average for many reasons, and still gotten his 100 RBI's every year), hit for a higher average, but hit for less power.

I figure if his average goes up then so does his power. He doesn't stop being a giant man in the #2 hole.

Frankly, I doubt the Reds have the stuff on hand to replace him. I'd take that chance for the right return in trade (because outside of Jay Bruce and possibly Aaron Harang I don't think there's any untouchables with this franchise), but if Dunn goes for nothing then the Reds will be taking an extended dirt nap.


Bruce won't be as good as Dunn next year overall, but Bruce will certainly be good enough to justify saving $13M-$16M.

When they start adjusting team records based on payroll I'll care about that. Until then, winning is winning, losing is losing and the Reds can easily afford Adam Dunn.


No G.M. worth a grain of salt with the situation he has with the REDS would keep Dunn through the end of 2008 without a diehard attempt to trade him by the end of June so Bruce could take his place.

So no GM worth a grain of salt would dare to think differently than you? I beg to differ.


Your way would guarantee to keep the seats empty in the GAB as the REDS would have not enough monies to spend on pitching ensuring the club to flounder in the bottom half of the standings in the National League.

My way would conserve the team's limited talent resources and give the franchise options moving forward. My way would replace the oldest, least dependable member of the OF. My way wouldn't be a bullheaded rush toward calamity.

Honestly, you've spent years cheerleading the moves that have landed the club in the bottom half of the standings. You'll pardon me if I'm not convinced this is anything but more of the same.

Eric_Davis
08-10-2007, 03:57 PM
It's all very interesting.

Because Krivsky failed to trade Dunn, he may have forced his own hand and has to pick up the Option for 2008. With Dunn's no-trade clause before June 15th build into that option, that forces Bruce to remain in AAA until at least that date unless Dunn waives the clause. Everything's negotiable. If Dunn's willing to talk, something can be worked out.

If I were Dunn, I would want to be a Free-Agent now rather than wait a year. I think Dunn could get a better contract now than he could next year. He's had a tremendous year...#2 in the league in 2-out RBI's. Heading towards another 100 Run, 100 RBI, 40 HR, 90 BB year.

Teams don't walk Dunn intentionally anymore. They don't fear him. They'd rather pitch to him. He only had 3 intentional walks this year, where he had 12, 14, 11, 8, and 13 the 5 years before. They think they can strike him out, and if that doesn't happen, he might walk anyway. But, I think it's come back to bite them, and that's why he's second in the league in 2-out RBI's. I think teams will intentionally walk him again next year and pitch a little more carefully to him with 2 outs and his 2-out RBI's will go down, but his walk will go back up, both intentional and the ones he earns.

Eric_Davis
08-10-2007, 03:57 PM
The problem with that plan is the fact that winter ball ends about two weeks before pitchers and catchers report for spring training, so you can't play winter ball and "take a couple of months off." It's got to be one or the other.


My mistake...I meant the Arizona Fall League.

oneupper
08-10-2007, 04:00 PM
The problem with that plan is the fact that winter ball ends about two weeks before pitchers and catchers report for spring training, so you can't play winter ball and "take a couple of months off." It's got to be one or the other.

Unfortunately...not true.

Players going to winter ball will often go AWOL around Christmas and not come back after the Christmas/New Years break.

Not nice...but it's done.

Of course, the best local players usually report AFTER November, so December and January are probably when the best baseball is being played in the Winter Leagues, so leaving early kind of defeats the purpose.

Heath
08-10-2007, 04:27 PM
I still think the logical place that Jr. gets traded to, if he gets traded, is Atlanta. It's close to Orlando, they train in Orlando, and while they aren't the NL East juggernaunt like they used to be, they still find themselves in contention every year.

Two years of Griffey in Turner Field ought to be interesting.

Jay Bruce starts in Louisville. He only comes to Cincinnati ready to play every day.

Eric_Davis
08-10-2007, 04:56 PM
M2, I respect your opinions a lot and feel that you have a tremendouse amount of knowledge and foresight about players and the REDS. I hope you know that. Sometimes your foresight is uncanny, and because of that I think a lot more about the things that you write.

I really sense a lot of frustration from you that I haven't felt in year's past about how the REDS are running things. I don't think REDS' fans deserve anything less than a winner on the field after paying through the nose for a new stadium while being given broken promises after broken promises.

I noticed one awkward wording in my reference to Bruce and Dunn. I mentioned that Bruce's average would be better than Dunn's but that his power would be less next year, but it came out like sounding that I thought Dunn's average would be up if he hit in the #2 hole, and that Dunn's average would be down. I don't think Dunn's average would be down wherever he hit, and in fact, I think it would be up, also from the #2 hole.

As far as my supporting the REDS' moves over the years.

I won't go back as far as the 13 years I've been around these boards, but I lambasted the Larkin extension, saying from the get-go that the team would never finish .500 as long as that contract was still owned by the REDS. I lambasted the Griffey trade saying that the team would never compete if it spends that high of a percentage of the total player on a position player. But, Junior deferred half of his salary every year, so it made it affordable.

I praised the Milton signing for the concept of it. Spending $7M/year for three years in an attempt to get a #2-#3 pitcher was the right philosphy at the time. A couple more of those would have been great, though it would have been better if it hadn't been damaged goods, as Milton has been well documented to have been througout the contract. A lot of G.M.'s tend to pick up damaged goods from other teams (Freddy Garcia and the Phils as an example).

I praised the Kearns/Lopez for pitching and prospects for not just the concept, but I liked Harris and Thompson as well as Bray. I didn't like Majewski. I thought Harris was the 2nd best player in the deal for the REDS behind Bray, and I always believe that in any trade, you should get the player with the most potential unless you're giving something away to try to get into the playoffs. I felt the best player in the whole deal was Bray and I hated Lopez' defense and always thought Kearns was over-rated. Albeit that, your analysis of the trade at the time was the best of anyone on REDSZONE. It had the most foresight and accurate analysis. You can look back and read everyone's and yours was pinpoint accurate.

I lambasted the Harris trade for cash.

I've lowered my opinion of Krivsky as the months have gone on, most notably, after letting the season get tanked before firing Narron, learning through the analysis by WOY the foolish trade of Germano for Cormier, the obtaining of Harris only to give him away for nothing, when Juan Castro was still on the team, the retention of Valentin which requires a 3rd catcher to be on the bench, the signing of Conine, the inconsistent handling of Saarloos, the allowing of Encarncion to be benched when there's no hope of reaching the playoffs anyway. The playing of veterans too often rather than developing some of the minor leaguers at the Major League level, or at least to see what they can do, in similar fashion to what the Diamondbacks attempt to do.

I do love the new ownership, as this was a doomed franchise under Banana-man. They hired Krivsky, and he needs to be given at least 3 years before you can accurately see what he has accomplished. I'm thankful the Castellini group doesn't bend like a willow to some of the fans' whims. Nobody runs a successful business by firing their G.M. every year or two as most fans on this board would like to see happen.

Some Cincinnati sportswriters and others on this board say that owner and management doesn't have a plan. Of course there are plans even if some can't see it.

Improved defense up the middle and improved bullpen pitching and improved starting pitching and improved scouting and improved coaching throughout the organization at every level are obvious plans being attempted on a monthly basis by the REDS. These plans will produce a franchise that, once established, will produce winning season after winning season. O'Brien gave it a good start, and Krivsky is continuing to carry out this plan even though there is a new owner.

I'm a Bengals fan. I have a lot patience. I'm also realistic in knowing that improvements start from the top. First the owner had to change, then the G.M., then scouting departments, then the coaches and managers at every level. Those moves alone take six months to 2 years to analyze and implement and another 1 to 2 years to see positive results. The rest will take care of itself as players go through the system, but you've got to look 4-5 years down the road from when the new owner took over to see if it's working. You can't make an comprehensive evaluation about the franchise in less time than that.

There's no reason to believe that this team won't have a winning record in 2009, and then continuously after that as long as the Castellini group is still in charge. But, they might not also, as you say, because of all things that you see going on with the franchise. It should all be clear 24 months from now if Castellini is a good owner. So far, I think he's been great.

M2
08-10-2007, 05:39 PM
I really sense a lot of frustration from you that I haven't felt in year's past about how the REDS are running things.

Then your sensors are off. I'm a heck of a lot more upbeat about the current situation than I was when DanO was in charge. That was a colossal disaster. I am, however, not particularly enthusiastic of the franchise's continued failure to commit to either a thorough rebuild or a major reload.


I won't go back as far as the 13 years I've been around these boards, but I lambasted the Larkin extension, saying from the get-go that the team would never finish .500 as long as that contract was still owned by the REDS. I lambasted the Griffey trade saying that the team would never compete if it spends that high of a percentage of the total player on a position player. But, Junior deferred half of his salary every year, so it made it affordable.

Don't blame the contracts for a franchise that can't pick pitchers. The Reds could have just as easily thrown money at Pokey Reese and Dmitri Young (they certainly tried). The problem when you don't know any better than to trot out the disastrous rotations the Reds have tried in this century is it doesn't matter how you spend your money.


I praised the Milton signing for the concept of it. Spending $7M/year for three years in an attempt to get a #2-#3 pitcher was the right philosphy at the time.

Once again, ineptitude in pitching assessment trumps all. Doesn't matter if you spend money on bad pitching. It's still bad pitching. Eric Milton had established himself as a bad pitcher by that time. Concept means nothing to a franchise that can't pick 'em.


I praised the Kearns/Lopez for pitching and prospects for not just the concept, but I liked Harris and Thompson as well as Bray.

I liked Harris. We'll see about Bray. I'd trade Thompson tomorrow for a reserve catcher and consider it a steal. He's got a radar tickling fastball that people hit, straight out of the Luke Hudson School of Pitching.

Now imagine if the Kearns and Lopez had fetched as much as Jose Guillen and Wily Mo Pena? Kearns and Lopez were each worth more. Amazing what getting a good return can do.


Albeit that, your analysis of the trade at the time was the best of anyone on REDSZONE. It had the most foresight and accurate analysis. You can look back and read everyone's and yours was pinpoint accurate.

Thanks for the kind words, but there were a lot of folks who were saying the same things. I didn't say anything about that deal that Redsland, Puffy or Johnny Footstool didn't.


The playing of veterans too often rather than developing some of the minor leaguers at the Major League level, or at least to see what they can do, in similar fashion to what the Diamondbacks attempt to do.

The D-Backs are fascinating. The offense has been horrible and the starting pitching problematic, but the club is playing 10 games better than its pythag. Maybe, in the end, all you need is a bullpen.


I do love the new ownership, as this was a doomed franchise under Banana-man. They hired Krivsky, and he needs to be given at least 3 years before you can accurately see what he has accomplished. I'm thankful the Castellini group doesn't bend like a willow to some of the fans' whims. Nobody runs a successful business by firing their G.M. every year or two as most fans on this board would like to see happen.

We'll see if Castellini keeps Krivsky around after this season. Wayne might be Bob's starter GM.


Improved defense up the middle and improved bullpen pitching and improved starting pitching and improved scouting and improved coaching throughout the organization at every level are obvious plans being attempted on a monthly basis by the REDS.

I think some of that is lip service. The previous two regimes were attempting to do the same thing. Where the rubber meets the road is being able to improve the pitching and defense while still fielding a capable offense. We haven't seen anything like that yet. FWIW, I think it's the right place to aim.


There's no reason to believe that this team won't have a winning record in 2009, and then continuously after that as long as the Castellini group is still in charge.

If Dunn goes out the door for bupkus then I think you can safely spend your summers in Nepal until about 2011 and not worry about missing any glory when it comes to Reds baseball.

Eric_Davis
08-10-2007, 05:54 PM
Thanks for the kind words, but there were a lot of folks who were saying the same things. I didn't say anything about that deal that Redsland, Puffy or Johnny Footstool didn't.



That's nice of you to be modest, but I read every single post about 4 months ago from the archives, and it took about five hours to read them all. It was very exhausting. Your spin on the trade was unique. You could reprint it today and it would seem as if it was written in the last week. It had no inaccuracies and all things were predicted with 100% accuracy. No other comments were as crystal clear.

nate
08-10-2007, 06:08 PM
Well, Hamilton doesn't meet that criteria so I'm not sure you bring that up. He'll probably hit the 250 at-bat mark but his OPS is at .914.

Adam Dunn was very close in 2001. He had 244 at-bats with a .949 OPS.

Robby was close to that to:. .290/.379/.558

camisadelgolf
08-11-2007, 11:17 AM
Most players coming off the DL start off hot.

I would love to see the stats that shows that.

And as if it means anything (it doesn't, though), I think Josh Hamilton will have problems staying healthy his entire career. I think it would've been a problem even if drugs weren't in the equation.

kaldaniels
08-11-2007, 11:23 AM
If the Reds don't pick up his option I don't think it will be due to his raise, but more due to the fact that morons run this team. I don't think Dunn is a good fit for this team, especially based off of what the team is trying to be built around, but there is no way they can't choose to not use his option.

Dougdirt...taking the double negative to new standards...the triple negative :thumbup:

Seriously, I love your posts, but I couldn't resist!

dougdirt
08-11-2007, 11:27 AM
Dougdirt...taking the double negative to new standards...the triple negative :thumbup:

Seriously, I love your posts, but I couldn't resist!

I get flustered when I begin to talk about the people who make the decisions for the Reds....:thumbup:

AmarilloRed
08-11-2007, 11:31 PM
I understand that Dunn is a proven power hitter and Jay Bruce is just a AAA player, but if we would imagine there will not be much of a dropoff in power between Bruce and Dunn and Bruce would be expected to hit for a higher batting average with better defense; why wouldn't the Reds decline the option? I know it is a risk whenever you have a rookie try to replace a veteran hitter, but from all I've heard Jay Bruce is the real deal. The only way they might not decide to do it is if they don't think Bruce is ready to hit major league pitching. In that case, it would be a very good idea to call Bruce up in September and see whether he would be ready next year.

Eric_Davis
08-12-2007, 03:35 AM
Not "everyone" needs the Minor League.

I think Bruce will end up being a better player than Will Clark and he only had half a season of Minor League Ball before being inserted into the Opening Day lineup against Nolan Ryan, which I attended, in 1986. Clark jacked one of of Ryan that day and finished 5th in the NL MVP the next year, the year after that, and 2nd the year after that. Clark wasn't a 4-year College Player, either. He didn't use steroids and had a normal career with it's normal Bell Curve as injuries took their toll. He pretty much kept his OPS pretty level throughout his career.

It's possible that the way Bruce is progressing, that he may be ready to be the Opening Day Starter for the REDS in 2008.

Oh, and all of Clark's half a season was at High-A Fresno. He completely skipped AA and AAA.

He was 22 in 1986, and 21 when he was finishing College and playing for Fresno.

I believe in preventing players from moving up too soon so that their careers won't be ruined, but everyone is different and Bruce may be one that will thrive early in his career.

AmarilloRed
08-12-2007, 06:41 PM
On my previous post I suggested we not pick up Dunn's option if Bruce is ready. Let me clarify: I have always suggested we try and sign Dunn to a 2-3 yr deal for about 13-14 million a year. I an not one who proposes trading Dunn under most circumstances. I would like to see Dunn on this team in the future. It is simply a question of will we be able to re-sign him, and would Bruce be a better option if the price for Dunn gets too high.

camisadelgolf
08-12-2007, 08:47 PM
I would say the Reds must pick up Dunn's option, and if Bruce is ready next year, dump Dunn (and/or Griffey) at the deadline.

TexRed
08-12-2007, 09:52 PM
Where's Dickerson fit in the outfield mix?

Blue
08-12-2007, 10:09 PM
I would say the Reds must pick up Dunn's option, and if Bruce is ready next year, dump Dunn (and/or Griffey) at the deadline.

I think the problem might be that what has been offered in a trade for Dunn is not as good as two draft picks.

KronoRed
08-12-2007, 11:26 PM
Where's Dickerson fit in the outfield mix?

Backup with Norris

Steve4192
08-13-2007, 08:24 AM
Not "everyone" needs the Minor League.

I think Bruce will end up being a better player than Will Clark and he only had half a season of Minor League Ball before being inserted into the Opening Day lineup

Clark was 22 years old by the time he made the majors.

Bruce won't be 22 years old until opening day 2009.

Clark had already been an Olympic medalist (1984), a NCAA MVP (1985 Golden Spikes award), a two-time college All-American (1984, 1985), and a veteran of the college world series before being drafted. Bruce has nowhere near the 'big stage' experience that a guy like Clark had on the day he was drafted.

dougdirt
08-13-2007, 11:36 AM
Clark was 22 years old by the time he made the majors.

Bruce won't be 22 years old until opening day 2009.

Clark had already been an Olympic medalist (1984), a NCAA MVP (1985 Golden Spikes award), a two-time college All-American (1984, 1985), and a veteran of the college world series before being drafted. Bruce has nowhere near the 'big stage' experience that a guy like Clark had on the day he was drafted.

Yeah, but at the same age Jay has faced much better competition on a regular basis.

Cedric
08-14-2007, 01:10 AM
I'm of the opinion that Jay Bruce would do fine right now in the bigs. Doesn't mean I would bring him up already though. Some players are just better than everyone else no matter their age compared to level.

fearofpopvol1
08-14-2007, 01:16 AM
Is it safe to say that Bruce is staying at 3a? He seems to have adjusted, even if the sample size is somewhat small.

GoReds33
08-14-2007, 11:33 PM
I got to meet Jay at Spring training this year. I have to say he seems like a very down to earth person. I think he understands that he needs to make adjustments at each level. I see him making an immediate contribution after his callup, which I hope is next year.

dougdirt
08-14-2007, 11:34 PM
I got to meet Jay at Spring training this year. I have to say he seems like a very down to earth person.

Everyone I have ever talked to that has met him, myself included, seems to have that exact opinion of him. :thumbup: